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strikeAug 20, 2026

With US diplomacy at standstill Iran shifts to offensive posturing

Summary

Six months into the U.S.-Iran war, Tehran’s military is slowly shifting from retaliation to offense in a bid to gain leverage and break the stalemate, analysts say. Since U.S.-Israeli strikes launched the war on Feb. 28, Tehran has largely portrayed its strikes against the United States, Israel and Gulf countries as revenge for attacks on the Islamic republic. Now, Iranian officials are openly talking about giving offensive operations a greater priority while keeping control over the strategic Strait of Hormuz, a key source of leverage against Washington that has disrupted a vital global energy route and driven up energy prices. Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei outlined that approach in a reshuffle of top military commanders earlier this month, calling for "strengthening maximum deterrence and preparing to conduct large-scale offensive operations against the enemy." Last week, a deputy commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guards indicated that Tehran was revising its military doctrine to give "offensive operations" strategic priority. Analyst Sina Toossi of the Center for International Policy believes the shift to offensive operations does not mean Tehran was "adopting a doctrine of preventive war." Rather, he said, Tehran appears to have concluded that "if confrontation becomes unavoidable, Iran should escalate earlier and more forcefully rather than wait for the United States or Israel to define the terms of the conflict." Ahmad Zeidabadi, a Tehran-based international relations expert, believes the shift reflects Tehran's assessment of Washington's intentions. "The Islamic Republic believes the United States has likely ruled out war and now seeks to perpetuate the status quo including the U.S. naval blockade and the economic pressure," he told AFP. Diplomatic efforts with the U.S. remain stalled, especially since a June 17 truce collapsed and the U.S. reimposed oil sanctions and the blockade on Iranian ports. "Iranians believe that diplomacy is doomed to fail in the current climate and that the Americans will not accept their terms," said Zeidabadi. "Consequently, they may feel compelled to resort to offensive action to force the U.S. to accept Iranian conditions ... and to initiate a new round of negotiations." Iran suffered heavy losses in the initial bombardment campaign, including the killing of then Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and senior military commanders, as well as extensive material and economic damage. But the political system has remained intact and intense bombardment eventually subsided following an April 8 cease-fire, apart from sporadic exchanges of fire, particularly in and around Hormuz. The war has since spread across the region to include clashes between Saudi Arabia and the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen and the disruption of shipping in the Red Sea's Bab el-Mandeb strait. "Tehran increasingly believes that American military superiority does not give Washington escalation dominance," said Toossi. The Strait of Hormuz has become central to that calculus, with Tehran requiring vessels to seek permission and to pay service fees to transit – a move strongly opposed by Washington and regional countries. Reopening the strait has become a U.S. priority. U.S. Vice President JD Vance said last week that "goal No. 1" was keeping energy prices low for Americans, while preventing Tehran from acquiring a nuclear weapon ranked second. A June 17 memorandum of understanding between Tehran and Washington that outlined terms for a truce was a far cry from U.S. President Donald Trump's initial call for Iran's "unconditional surrender." That truce later collapsed over disagreements primarily over the management of the Hormuz but Iranian officials still tout it as evidence of "victory." "I can state with conviction that we have won this war in the true sense of the word, both militarily and politically," top negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said in a speech last week, while describing the deal as a source of "pride and victory." An Iranian attack in late July on a U.S. air base and a command center in Jordan has been portrayed on Iranian media as an example of that "preemptive" approach. For Hossein Kanani-Moghadam, an international relations expert and former general in the Revolutionary Guards, the new strategy could take other forms. "Such operations could encompass a combination of cyber warfare, psychological warfare, intelligence operations, and economic warfare," he said. But Tehran's calculus comes with serious risks. "If this threat is serious ... the outcome of this scenario would be catastrophic for Iran and the region," said Zeidabadi. Toossi also believes that the strategy "means future crises could escalate much faster." The broader danger, according to Toossi, is what he described as "reciprocal deterrence trap" with each side responding to the other's attempts to strengthen deterrence as evidence it must escalate further. "That is a much more unstable strategic environment, even if neither side actually wants another major war," he said.

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  • Daily SabahBy Daily Sabah

    Six months into the U.S.-Iran war, Tehran’s military is slowly shifting from retaliation to offense in a bid to gain leverage and break the stalemate, analysts say. Since U.S.-Israeli strikes launched the war on Feb. 28, Tehran has largely portrayed its strikes against the United

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Iran FM Blasts Trump's Economic D-Day Threat 'Diversion' Which Will Fail, As New Carrier Arrives In Mideast Waters

The US Central Command (CENTCOM) has on Thursday confirmed the USS George Washington is now deployed in the Middle East, following the lengthy, over-extended deployment of personnel onboard the USS Lincoln, which has sparked crisis and media frenzy over poor conditions, lack of supplies, and worsening morale.

"The George Washington Carrier Strike Group is operating in Middle East during a scheduled deployment after arriving in the CENTCOM theater yesterday," the command said in a statement posted on X. CENTCOM image of the USS George Washington flight deck

The USS Washington will now be the military's frontline carrier leading the mission in regional waters, which has featured an ongoing blockade of Iranian ports.

President Trump had the evening prior issued a Truth Social post describing a new "ECONOMIC D-DAY" against Iran, declaring that his total economic war against Tehran will be the "MOST CRUSHING ECONOMIC OPERATION EVER TAKEN AGAINST ANY COUNTRY."

Trump said that with Tehran's military and military-industrial base reduced to "now rubble" and its "currency worthless," he will unleash severe economic consequences against "ANY country that allows its financial institutions, businesses, airports, or government entities to provide any type of lifeline to Iran."

On Thursday Iranian leaders responded to the D-Day threat, with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stating on X that Trump’s announcement is designed to distract from Washington’s "unprecedented debt & surging interest costs". He said the new economic measures will "bring further defeat" to the US. He added that "US economic terrorism threatens [the] global economy and sovereignty worldwide.

Another top Iranian official elsewhere asserted the US seeks exit from the region:

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf visited Iraq on Wednesday and said that the US was seeking to exit the region, comments that come following a report from The Washington Post that said the Pentagon is considering pulling back from the Persian Gulf after many of its bases in the area were heavily damaged by Iranian strikes.

Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi also weighed in with another message, saying Washington is headed towards its next defeat. "They claim Iran is on the verge of defeat, hanging by a thread, yet they are begging all their allies to help them," he posted on X.

Meanwhile Qatar is still seeking mediation and de-escalation, with Qatar’s Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani having said Thursday that traffic in the Strait of Hormuz must go back to what it was before. He urged that no party go back to "blackmailing" the other.

"The consequences of this war were grave, not only on the Gulf region but elsewhere in the world," Sheikh Mohammed told reporters at a press briefing following high-level discussions in El Alamein, Egypt.

"We need the situation to go back to what it used to be before" he said. "We condemn any threats in this regard in any obstacles."

On the question of global shipping flows through the strait, much remains to be seen following a controversial Axios report issued Wednesday which said the Pentagon has successfully established a stealth corridor in and out of the strait. Here are the key untested claims, which await verification:

Under the operation, which has been underway for the last several weeks, 15–20 tankers have entered and exited the strait each night through a southern channel along the coast of Oman. About 10 million barrels of oil a day — roughly half the pre-war volume — are being transported out of the strait and injected into the global energy market, the officials said. If this is the case, then it's likely to lead to further rounds of war, given Iran is unlikely to sit back and allow the corridor to run smoothly...

I fully agree: "Iran is unlikely to accept a situation in which it cannot export oil while other Gulf producers continue to do so. Paradoxically, therefore, America’s relative operational success could become a driver of further Iranian escalation." https://t.co/I2IuU0deyU — Hamidreza Azizi (@HamidRezaAz) August 20, 2026 Of course, many analysts have pointed out that Axios has not been reliable on oil and Iran related reports, which tend to come out at sensitive moments timeline-wise, perhaps for maximum impact on markets.

Regional watcher and Atlantic Council author Danny Citrinowicz writes, "There is a fundamental paradox at the heart of the current U.S. approach to Iran: Washington wants to avoid another major military campaign, yet the very strategy it is pursuing to achieve that goal may make renewed military escalation increasingly difficult to avoid."

"The administration appears to believe that it can dramatically intensify economic pressure, including through aggressive enforcement of secondary sanctions, while keeping the confrontation largely within the economic domain," he continues. "But that assumption misunderstands both Iran’s position and the incentives facing its current leadership." Indeed Washington has seemed to miscalculate and underestimate Tehran at every turn of this nearly 6-month long conflict.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/20/2026 - 09:20

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2026-08-20T13:15+0000 2026-08-20T13:15+0000 2026-08-20T13:15+0000 us-israel war on iran us iran pentagon strait of hormuz https://cdn1.img.sputnikglobe.com/img/07ea/03/01/1123727066_0:160:3072:1888_1920x0_80_0_0_a05b022c95c3ae3f9344a5e216e6cd54.jpg.webp As of August 19, 418 soldiers were injured during Operation Epic Fury that finalized on May 5, another 339 people were wounded since July 7, when the United States launched a new series of strikes against Iran, bringing the total number to 757.

At the same time, the death toll of American servicemen remains at 18: fourteen soldiers died during Operation Epic Fury and four more since July 7, according to the Pentagon. CNN has reported, citing US officials, that the US authorities had informed their political allies that they are shifting to a strategy of gradually economically "strangling" Iran instead of pursuing their previous course of military action.

The officials said a new package of sanctions against Iran was expected to be introduced this week, while the blockade of Iranian ports would remain in place. Overnight into June 18, Iran and the US signed a memorandum to end the conflict that began on February 28.

However, on July 8, President Donald Trump announced that the ceasefire was no longer in effect, and US forces have since carried out several series of strikes on Iran. The US Central Command claimed the strikes were in response to Iranian actions against commercial vessels crossing the Strait of Hormuz.

Iranian forces responded with strikes on US bases in the Middle East. On July 12, Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz until the end of US interference in the region, following another wave of exchanges of strikes between the parties to the conflict.

The next day, Trump said the United States would become a "guardian" of the Strait of Hormuz. He also reinstated the US blockade of Iranian ports. On Thursday, US President Donald Trump called his economic operation against Iran an "isolation on an unprecedented scale" and urged allies to join the US, describing it as an Economic D-Day analogous to the allied landings in Normandy.

https://sputnikglobe.com/20260816/iran-war-proves-us-air-defenses-inefficient-against-modern-threats-1124585302.html iran strait of hormuz Sputnik International [email protected] +74956456601 MIA „Rossiya Segodnya“ 2026 Sputnik International feedback@sputniknews.

com +74956456601 MIA „Rossiya Segodnya“ News en_EN https://cdn1.img.sputnikglobe.com/img/07ea/03/01/1123727066_171:0:2902:2048_1920x0_80_0_0_0b341716df88070653bb4e36e8bca778.jpg.webp Sputnik International [email protected] +74956456601 MIA „Rossiya Segodnya“ Sputnik International feedback@sputniknews.

com +74956456601 MIA „Rossiya Segodnya“ us, iran, pentagon, strait of hormuz us, iran, pentagon, strait of hormuz Number of US Troops Wounded During Operation Against Iran Exceeds 750 WASHINGTON (Sputnik) - The total number of US military personnel injured during the conflict with Iran has increased to 757, Sputnik found out on Thursday after analyzing recent Pentagon data.

As of August 19, 418 soldiers were injured during Operation Epic Fury that finalized on May 5, another 339 people were wounded since July 7, when the United States launched a new series of strikes against Iran, bringing the total number to 757. At the same time, the death toll of American servicemen remains at 18: fourteen soldiers died during Operation Epic Fury and four more since July 7, according to the Pentagon.

CNN has reported, citing US officials, that the US authorities had informed their political allies that they are shifting to a strategy of gradually economically "strangling" Iran instead of pursuing their previous course of military action. The officials said a new package of sanctions against Iran was expected to be introduced this week, while the blockade of Iranian ports would remain in place.

Overnight into June 18, Iran and the US signed a memorandum to end the conflict that began on February 28. However, on July 8, President Donald Trump announced that the ceasefire was no longer in effect, and US forces have since carried out several series of strikes on Iran.

The US Central Command claimed the strikes were in response to Iranian actions against commercial vessels crossing the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian forces responded with strikes on US bases in the Middle East. On July 12, Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz until the end of US interference in the region, following another wave of exchanges of strikes between the parties to the conflict.

The next day, Trump said the United States would become a "guardian" of the Strait of Hormuz. He also reinstated the US blockade of Iranian ports. On Thursday, US President Donald Trump called his economic operation against Iran an "isolation on an unprecedented scale" and urged allies to join the US, describing it as an Economic D-Day analogous to the allied landings in Normandy.

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Russia’s war against Ukraine is entering another dangerous phase with both sides relying heavily on long range strike systems, including Ukraine executing attacks at depths of over 2,000 kilometers from its borders. As the risk of further escalation rises as fall and winter approach, Washington should now make more aggressive use of selective disclosure: revealing more about what each side is demanding, rejecting and tentatively accepting.

U.S. mediation since early 2025 has produced limited restraints involving Black Sea navigation and attacks on energy facilities and a three-day ceasefire, but no lasting ceasefire. U.S.-mediated negotiations in Geneva in February ended without a breakthrough and the Kremlin said in July there was no immediate prospect of resuming formal negotiations, though President Trump and President Volodymyr Zelensky recently discussed reviving the peace talks.

The parties remain far apart. Moscow insists on control of all of the Donbas, including Ukrainian-held territory. Kyiv is unwilling to surrender it. Even if a ceasefire can be reached, Ukraine would struggle to accept terms that look like defeat: surrender of territory it still controls, a permanent bar on NATO membership without credible alternative guarantees, or abandonment of its claim to reparations.

Recent Ukrainian polling underscores this difficulty, finding that 57% categorically rejected withdrawing from Ukrainian-held Donbas in exchange for U.S. and European security guarantees. The contrast with the public debate surrounding diplomacy over the Strait of Hormuz and Gaza is striking.

Those negotiations are not fully transparent either, but key bargaining positions have been publicly reported in considerable detail. In the current Hormuz crisis, reporting has laid out disputes over Iranian control of inbound shipping and oversight of outbound traffic, as well as proposed transit fees and demands for unimpeded, toll-free passage.

In Gaza, the sequencing of Hamas’s disarmament and Israel’s withdrawal is openly debated. Stakeholders can see who is accepting which terms and where the talks are stuck. The Russia-Ukraine negotiations are more opaque in this crucial respect. Observers know the broad disputes, but much less about the exact trades, sequencing, commitments and authoritative negotiating text.

Is Moscow asking only for Ukraine’s withdrawal from the rest of Donbas? What commitments would Russia make if that happened? What are the details of Kyiv’s counteroffer? Is a peace treaty under discussion? What third-party security guarantees are on the table?

Public reporting confirms that territory and security guarantees are major issues. But even after recent high-level U.S.-Russian contacts, Washington declined to explain the Russian position in detail. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stunningly confessed in a recent interview that while trying to obtain Patriot missile defenses for Ukraine, he is discussing things that he “cannot even share.

” The parties’ public answers have been elusive and at times inconsistent. Talks have proceeded largely behind closed doors for understandable diplomatic reasons: secrecy can protect sensitive bargaining and insulate negotiators from domestic backlash.

The Kremlin in particular has kept important details undisclosed.Research on secret international negotiations finds that secrecy is regarded as more legitimate when it protects sensitive information or raises the likelihood of an agreement, but substantially less legitimate when its purpose is to avoid criticism.

Confidentiality often helps diplomacy. After four and a half years of full-scale war, however, it increasingly protects the parties from accountability rather than the talks from disruption. Peer-reviewed work on back-channel negotiations likewise stresses that secret channels can be crucial for breaking deadlocks, while recognizing the accountability and constituency problems that secrecy creates.

First, the parties feel too little pressure from their own constituencies and international partners. Russia’s economy has slowed sharply and some among its business and political establishment see economic advantages in ending the war. If they knew that realistic options were available, some might support the concessions needed to reach them.

Ukrainians likewise deserve a clear view of the proposed off-ramps and of whether they have been rejected for legitimate national-security reasons or narrower political ones. It was reported in June that Russian businesses saw ending the war as the best route to reviving growth.

Second, secrecy is creating an opening for attacks on Washington’s credibility as mediator. Moscow has repeatedly invoked alleged “understandings” reached at the August 2025 U.S.-Russia summit in Anchorage and accused Washington of retreating from them.

Yet United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio says there was a proposal at Anchorage but no agreement, despite Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov insisting that the exchanges amounted to an understanding. Because no peace agreement or was announced at the summit, outsiders have been left to guess what Moscow believes Washington promised and whether the American position later changed.

That allows Moscow to portray Washington rather than itself as an obstacle to peace. Selective disclosure does not mean publishing transcripts or exposing every bargaining position. After each round, Washington could issue a structured account of the issues discussed, areas of provisional agreement, proposals each party accepted or rejected, and questions still unresolved.

When either side mischaracterizes an American proposal, the U.S. should release enough of the record to correct the claim. Negotiators could be told in advance what categories of information may be disclosed. This approach is consistent with a practice documented in negotiation research: leaders sometimes communicate progress or disclose interim arrangements to test reactions among the public, media and key constituencies.

Such transparency carries risks. Public bargaining can improve accountability but also impose costs on negotiations, and a leaked compromise can become politically toxic. Research on peace bargaining shows how domestic challengers can seize on concessions to discredit pro-settlement leaders.

Yet controlled disclosure after a long period of secret diplomacy around the Russia-Ukraine war is unlikely to make the current impasse worse. It could make obstruction more costly and compromise easier to defend. Some workable solutions may already exist but remain hidden from the officials, business leaders and citizens whose support would be needed to carry them out.

Public pressure informed by the realistic contours of a settlement can help decision makers accept necessary concessions. Scholars of peace negotiations note that constituency support matters both for reaching a deal and for implementing one and that negotiators sometimes deliberately communicate negotiating progress to assess or shape that support.

Exposing negotiated terms to light will not produce peace by itself. It may reveal who is preventing it and illuminate a path to ending the war before the next escalation. A Message from The Moscow Times: Dear readers, We are facing unprecedented challenges.

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Location: Strait of Hormuz