100 Days Into the Iran War: Winning & Losing ETF Areas

Summary

June 7, 2026 marked 100 days since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict, and the war continues to infuse volatility into global markets as the United States and Iran have yet to reach a permanent peace deal. While a fragile ceasefire remains in place to facilitate diplomacy, peace negotiations between the United States and Iran have largely stalled,with both sides sending conflicting signals and periodically exchanging military strikes. As uncertainty persists, the economic and market consequences have been stark. Let’s find out more in detail. Global Markets Recover Losses as War Progresses Global equities initially sold off following the U.S. and Israel's military actions against Iran. However, U.S. stocks have staged a remarkable recovery, with the S&P 500 climbing to fresh record highs despite elevated oil prices and inflation concerns, as Iran and the United States agreed to a fragile peace deal in early April and President Trump extended the deal in late April. Though Strait of Hormuz-related disruptions are still in place and Israel-Lebanon tensions are also flaring up occasionally, the initial wrath of the war appears to be diminishing. Investors have largely looked beyond the conflict, focusing instead on strong corporate earnings and the transformative potential of artificial intelligence (AI). AI Wins Amid the War: Kospi Tops Global Market The rally has been concentrated in U.S. and Asian technology stocks, particularly companies benefiting directly from AI infrastructure spending. The KOSPI won among global markets during this period with a gain of 38.4%, followed by TAIEX's 30.2% rally. Nasdaq Composite came in at third with 18.5% gains, thanks to the AI euphoria, as quoted on CNBC. The surging demand for computing power has been aiding semiconductor stocks in recent years, which has been benefiting technology-heavy indexes of South Korea and Taiwan. Note that South Korea’s Kospi is heavy on Samsung Electronics (up 156% this year) and SK Hynix (up 205% this year). Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM) stock is up 30% this year and a key component of the TAIEX. And the Nasdaq is heavy with tech stocks, especially the Magnificent Seven stocks. Meanwhile, European equities have lagged as higher energy prices pose greater challenges for the region's economy, as quoted on CNBC. The Stoxx 600 is down 2% during the Iran war. Oil Prices Retreat From Peaks but Supply Risks Remain Oil markets have experienced sharp swings throughout the conflict due to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important energy shipping routes. United States Brent Oil Fund LP BNO is up 81% this year. Although crude prices have retreated from their wartime highs, they remain significantly above pre-war levels. Brent crude is still roughly 36% higher than before the conflict. Bond Markets Signal Growing Economic Concerns Higher prices for oil, natural gas, jet fuel, and gasoline have contributed to renewed inflationary pressures worldwide. In the United States, consumer inflation reached 3.8% in April, marking its highest level in nearly three years. Although the AI boom saved the stock market, bond markets have portrayed a more cautious picture. Government bond yields have remained elevated since the conflict began, reflecting concerns about high inflation. U.S. Treasury yields surged after the war broke out, with the 30-year Treasury yield recently reaching its highest level since before the Global Financial Crisis. iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF TLT is down 2.3% this year. Winning ETF Areas Below are the ETF areas that benefited the most from the conflict. Shipping Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF BWET – Up 223.9% over the past three months (as of June 5, 2026). The Middle East conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have disrupted key shipping routes, driving a sharp surge in freight rates. This has strengthened the investment case for BWET. Semiconductors iShares Semiconductor ETF SOXX – Up 59.9% Global X AI Semiconductor & Quantum ETF CHPX – Up 59.8% The rise of AI, cloud computing, big data, data centers, the Internet of Things, the 5G boom, smartphone upgrades and new gadgets has been fueling demand for chips and other semiconductor products. Cannabis Roundhill Cannabis ETF WEED – Up 54.9% The U.S. Department of Justice and the Drug Enforcement Administration have moved FDA-approved marijuana-based products and state-regulated medical cannabis to Schedule III and launched an expedited review of broader reclassification from Schedule I. A June 29, 2026 administrative hearing is expected to accelerate the rulemaking process and provide greater clarity for research and medical use (read: Best-Performing ETFs of April). Losing ETF Areas Let’s see which investment areas were the biggest losers during the war. Gold Miners Themes Gold Miners ETF AUMI – Down 25.9% Global X Gold Miners ETF AUAU – Down 21.9% Gold mining stocks have fallen this year largely due to surging global energy costs. Gold mining companies depend on oil heavily, specifically diesel, to power heavy machinery like haul trucks, excavators, and generators. Cryptocurrency ProShares Bitcoin & Ether Equal Weight ETF BETE – Down 20.8% ProShares Bitcoin & Ether Market Cap Weight ETF BETH – Down 17.6% Bitcoin and Ethereum have fallen this year due to heightened geopolitical uncertainty, high inflation, rising rate fears, their volatile nature, profit-taking after strong rallies, and ETF outflows. Clean Water Global X Clean Water ETF AQWA – Down 6.5% Clean water stocks and ETFs have slumped this year probably because elevated interest rates have pressured capital-intensive water infrastructure companies. Boost Your Portfolio with Our Top ETF Insights Zacks' exclusive Fund Newsletter delivers actionable information, top news and analysis, as well as top-performing ETFs, straight to your inbox every week. Don’t miss out on this valuable resource. It’s free!Get it now >> Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT): ETF Research Reports iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX): ETF Research Reports United States Brent Oil ETF (BNO): ETF Research Reports Global X Clean Water ETF (AQWA): ETF Research Reports Roundhill Cannabis ETF (WEED): ETF Research Reports Themes Gold Miners ETF (AUMI): ETF Research Reports Global X AI Semiconductor & Quantum ETF (CHPX): ETF Research Reports Global X Gold Miners ETF (AUAU): ETF Research Reports This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com). The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.