strikeApr 14, 2026

After all the talk, is Trump’s blockade of Iranian ports actually doing anything?

Summary

After all the tough talk, is Trump’s blockade in the Strait of Hormuz actually doing anything? Experts said the blockade was ‘more akin to a traffic enforcement operation in the middle of a war zone’ and that Iran has moved vast quantities of its oil offshore After high-stakes peace talks in Islamabad collapsed over the weekend, the future of a fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran now appears to rest on a 100-mile waterway between the Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea. The United States imposed a blockade on Iranian ports and coastal areas east of the Strait of Hormuz, which came into effect at 3pm BST on Monday. America’s Central Command warned that vessels will be subject to “interception, diversion and capture” regardless of their flag. More than 15 US warships are in place to support the operation, a senior official told the Wall Street Journal. President Donald Trump threatened that ships sailing from Iranian ports would be subject to “the same system of kill that we use against the drug dealers on boats at Sea”, referring to the administration’s controversial attacks on boats off the coast of Venezuela. Oil prices surged in response to the threats but the US military insisted that the action would “not impede” movement of ships through the Strait of Hormuz. But despite the rhetoric, a US- sanctioned Chinese tanker, the Rich Starry, appeared to sail straight through the Strait on Tuesday in apparent defiance of Trump’s blockade. What does Trump’s blockade involve? In practice Trump’s blockade will impact vessels departing from Iran’s ports and coastline, regardless of their country of origin. The US has explicitly said it will not target vessels that aren’t linked to Iran or its ports, but those that are will be intercepted, diverted or captured. However, the US leader has also ordered the Navy to hunt down vessels that have paid Iran a transit toll, which includes Chinese tankers and Indian bulk carriers that are not parties to the conflict, according to Professor Barry Appleton, co-director for for international law at New York Law School. “You have a narrow, mine-threatened strait, active hostilities, and now the US Navy is being asked to police every vessel entering or leaving Iranian ports,” he told The Independent. “That's not a blockade. It is more akin to a traffic enforcement operation in the middle of a war zone.” Has the blockade been working? According to marine traffic data analysed by Kpler, five liquid tankers have transited the Strait of Hormuz since the blockade was in place. For all categories—liquids, LNG, LPG, and dry bulk—a total of eight vessels crossed between 13 and 14 April. “The objective is to constrain Iran’s ability to export crude and condensate, which could eventually lead to production shut-ins.” senior crude analyst,” Johannes Rauball, told The Independent. But Tehran appears to have moved its oil offshore in anticipation of the restrictions and the volumes of its oil in transit also remains elevated, according to Kpler. This week, floating storage of Iranian crude - a method of producing and storing oil and gas on open waters away from land or ports - rose to 42 Mbbls (or 42 million barrels) up from 38 million on Sunday 12 April. Floating storage is defined as crude-carrying tankers that have remained idle and reduced their speed for at least seven days, essentially "waiting for instructions" on water. Because Iranian oil supply is exceeding demand, some tankers have been unable to discharge their load and find buyers. “While any reduction in Iranian exports would primarily impact China, which absorbs the vast majority of these flows, overall availability of Iranian crude is expected to remain ample,” explains Rauball. “We are observing significant concentrations of floating storage near China, including roughly 15 Mbbls in the Yellow Sea and around 7 Mbbls in the South China Sea.” Rauball suggests that this could mean up to 120 days of availability of Iranian crude for China, meaning Iran is unlikely to be impacted by the blockade anytime in the near future due to “substantial volumes already on the water”. “In total, Iranian crude on water—including both floating storage and cargoes in transit—stands at approximately 190 Mbbls,” explains Rauball. “With China typically importing around 1.5 Mbd of Iranian crude, this implies roughly 120 days of cover under current conditions. “As such, even if Iranian crude exports decline, near-term availability is unlikely to tighten significantly, given the substantial volumes already on water.” Furthermore, Iran’s shadow fleet of tankers poses a further challenge to the US navy, shipping experts have warned in comments to the Wall Street Journal, allowing vessels linked to ports to transit undetected using sophisticated methods. According to Lloyd’s List, a falsely-flagged US-sanctioned tanker linked to China exited the Strait early on Tuesday. Chatham House analyst Neil Quilliam says it it “too early to tell” whether Trump’s blockade had been effective. “It certainly complicates the movement of vessels that Iran permits to pass through Hormuz. The passage of the Chinese tanker shows that some ship owners and their crews have a high risk tolerance and are willing to test the US - making it a test of who blinks first. It is a high stakes game.” Unmanned Underwater Vehicles (UUVs) - that can loiter underwater for up to 96 hours - can also pose a threat to billion-dollar US naval assets, according to political analyst Safi Ghauri. After nearly half a century of sanctions, further structural pressure may not hit Iran as hard as other nations, according to Ashok Kumar, associate professor of political economy at Birkbeck, University of London. “Trump’s plan to ‘blockade the blockade’ is strategically incoherent,” he says. “It’s a gesture of desperation, not strength. Iran has already moved vast quantities of oil offshore, so much of its supply simply sits beyond the reach of any naval cordon.” Could the blockade force a confrontation? Prof Kumar says that the strategy “escalates a confrontation in one of the world’s most fragile chokepoints, where the US and global economy are far more exposed than Iran itself”. Iran has threatened to attack US partners in the Gulf if what it calls “piracy” continues. “It seems to be a tit-for-tat move by the US,” explains Quilliam. “At best, if it remains benign, then it will prevent Iran from exporting its crude, but will lead to an increase in the price of oil. In this scenario, the US aims to increase Iran’s economic pain and bring it back to the negotiating table. This move alone will not persuade the regime to reopen talks, as it has resisted sanctions for over 20 years. “At worst, Iran will challenge the blockade, leading to renewed military confrontation and include new Iranian strikes against energy infrastructure in the Gulf states, notably Saudi Arabia and export facilities in Yanbu on the Red Sea. This will lead to an even bigger hike in oil prices.” Join our commenting forum Join thought-provoking conversations, follow other Independent readers and see their repliesComments

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Maira ButtBy Maira Butt
After all the tough talk, is Trump’s blockade in the Strait of Hormuz actually doing anything? Experts said the blockade was ‘more akin to a traffic enforcement operation in the middle of a war zone’ and that Iran has moved vast quantities of its oil offshore After high-stakes pe…

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Jul 21, 2026strikeUnverifiedUSIranProxy

Another ship hit in Hormuz as Houthis add to regional risks

○ 1 source

Another ship hit in Hormuz as Houthis add to regional risks A tanker has been struck by an unknown projectile northeast of Oman’s Limah, UK Maritime Trade Operations says on Tuesday - Hormuz was deserted on Jul 21, with no ships observed transiting, data shows.

PHOTO: REUTERS [SINGAPORE] Another tanker was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz as renewed hostilities empty the waterway, while a threat by Houthi rebels to blockade Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea heightened regional maritime risks. The Kaifan, an oil products tanker owned by Kuwait Oil Tanker, was the vessel attacked in the strait, according to security consultancy EOS Risk Group.

The ship was struck by an unknown projectile northeast of Oman’s Limah, UK Maritime Trade Operations said earlier on Tuesday (Jul 21), without naming the tanker. Kuwait Oil Tanker did not immediately respond to emailed requests for comment, and ship tracking data shows Kaifan last signalled its location more than a month ago near Sohar, Oman.

The attack on the Kuwaiti tanker follows strikes in recent days on vessels owned by Dynacom Tankers Management. Hormuz was deserted on Tuesday, with no ships observed transiting, data shows. Iran’s recent spate of attacks has focused on oil tankers shuttling through the strait along the Omani coast, often with their transponders turned off.

Earlier strikes have affected major operators such as South Korea’s Sinokor Group and Greece’s Dynacom, which have been instrumental in sustaining crude flows during much of the war with tankers sailing through Hormuz dark. In the week ended Jul 19, Hormuz crossings averaged seven tankers each day, compared with 16 per day a week earlier, said Rahul Kapoor, global head of shipping analytics and research for S&P Global Energy.

“Ship operators remain increasingly cautious, with risk tolerances continuing to be tested,” he said. An empty Sinokor supertanker, Plata Singapore, that was sailing towards the Gulf of Oman with the aim of reaching Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura in the Persian Gulf, deviated from its path on Sunday, according to ship tracking data.

The vessel is currently in the Arabian Sea. The South Korean company did not immediately respond to an emailed request for comment. The threat by Iran-backed Houthi militants to blockade Saudi Arabia’s maritime traffic has added another element of risk.

Shipowners with vessels seeking to transit the Red Sea were advised to review their affiliations with the kingdom, with at least one supertanker in nearby waters switching its broadcast to say that it belongs to the Indian government. The India-flagged supertanker, Desh Viraat, which is half-filled with crude from Fujairah, began sailing southwest earlier this week towards Bab el Mandeb in the Gulf of Aden, signalling it had armed guards onboard.

Soon after the Houthi threat on Monday, it switched that signal to “Govt. of India Await”, making clear that it has links to New Delhi. Desh Viraat’s owner, the Shipping Corporation of India, did not immediately respond to an emailed request for comment.

“Companies maintaining regular Saudi trade should consider their exposure elevated, particularly for vessels calling at Red Sea ports,” maritime risk company Marisks said in a note to clients late on Monday that was seen by Bloomberg News. Even though it remains to be seen whether the Houthis will carry through with their threat, “for shipowners, risks have heightened”, said Anoop Singh, global head of shipping research at Oil Brokerage.

“If you have an alternate voyage to take, then you will take that and avoid those in the region.” BLOOMBERG Decoding Asia newsletter: your guide to navigating Asia in a new global order. Sign up here to get Decoding Asia newsletter. Delivered to your inbox.

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Jul 21, 2026strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIranProxy

Oil prices to hit $120 soon? Goldman Sachs makes big prediction as Hormuz concerns loom

○ 1 source

Goldman Sachs has projected Brent crude averaging $80 per barrel in the fourth quarter and $75 in the following year, conditional on reduced Middle East tensions, while noting upside risks from potential shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz or Red Sea.

Brent prices rose above $91 per barrel amid recent U.S.-Iran exchanges and Houthi threats to Saudi shipments before edging lower on Tuesday. A senior Iranian official told Reuters that mediators had proposed a 10-day ceasefire to preserve an interim agreement.

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Iran claims attacks in strait of Hormuz; Houthis announce blockade of Red Sea shipping route – Middle East crisis live

○ 1 source

Opening summary: Iran claims attacks on strait of Hormuz ships amid fresh US strikes Welcome to our live coverage of the latest developments in the Middle East crisis. Iran attacked a tanker in the strait of Hormuz early on Tuesday, forcing its crew to abandon the ship, as Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis announced they were imposing an immediate maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea after the two sides traded fire last week for the first time in years.

A Houthi official said the Bab al-Mandeb strait – at the southern end of the Red Sea, through which about 12% of the world’s trade usually passes – would be closed to the Saudis in response to the kingdom’s “unjust blockade on Yemenis for over 10 years”.

Saudi Arabia said it would take “all necessary measures to protect its vessels in accordance with international law”. A 10 consecutive night of US airstrikes has not compelled Tehran to loosen its grip on the strait of Hormuz, a vital route for global energy supplies.

But even as Iran’s president said the country had returned “full-scale war”, the Iranian interior minister travelled to Pakistan – a key mediator in the conflict – for talks. In key developments: The latest US strikes came hours after Donald Trump said Iran would pay “many times over” for killing US soldiers after multiple service members were killed in action over the weekend.

A tanker came under attack early Tuesday in the Hormuz strait off Oman, forcing the crew to abandon the vessel, the British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations centre said. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards claimed the attack as well as two other attacks on ships in the waterway on Monday.

The US military’s Central Command said its latest airstrikes were to “degrade” Iran’s ability to attack commercial shipping in the strait and included hitting military command centres and missile and drone launch sites. Iranian media reported strikes in parts of the country including Bandar Abbas, Tabriz and Bushehr, home to the country’s only operational civilian nuclear power.

Iran’s launched attacks in response against Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan, which all host US forces. Oil prices softened after hitting their highest levels in more than a month in the previous session. Brent crude futures eased 0.4% to $88.87 a barrel by 0052 GMT on Tuesday while US West Texas Intermediate crude for September delivery was steady at $82.

47 a barrel. Democrats have seized on the deaths of three US troops killed in Iranian strikes to urge Trump to urgently reverse his resumption of the war with Iran amid widespread anxiety over climbing casualties. The Lebanese army began taking charge of security in three southern villages, the US said, as a deal to secure an Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon and the disarmament of Hezbollah faced its first test on the ground.

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Jul 21, 2026strikeUnverifiedUSIranUN

Inside the US strike on a shadow fleet tanker

○ 1 source

US forces struck the tanker Settebello in the Gulf of Oman on June 10, killing three Indian crew members when munitions hit the engine room and adjacent areas. Maritime tracking data indicate the vessel had transported Iranian oil under US sanctions for several years and conducted offshore transfers prior to the strike.

The US military described the action as a precision operation, while reports note the ship was stationary at the time.

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