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strikeMar 31, 2026

As Iran war passes one-month mark, mission creep clouds Trump’s strategy

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As Iran war passes one-month mark, mission creep clouds Trump’s strategy 'You now have a global crisis — and no way out,' former State Department official says Mission creep has stymied U.S. presidents in the Middle East and beyond, and now the escalation of President Donald Trump’s military operation in Iran has left him with no clear off-ramp as congressional Democrats lambaste his command of the war. The commander in chief and his top war aides initially tried selling his decision to join Israel in its bombardment of the Islamic Republic as an undertaking focused on Iran’s drone and missile arsenals, crippling its military manufacturing base and ensuring it could never field a nuclear weapon. But mission creep appeared on Feb. 28, the first day of the month-old conflict, when air strikes killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader since 1989. Trump immediately found himself overseeing what foreign policy experts have called a “regime change” operation. The focus on Iran’s military stores and nuclear program quickly expanded, with Trump declaring that he wanted to helm the driver’s seat in choosing the country’s next top leader. From there, Iranian launched attacks on a number of Gulf Arab states’ energy sector facilities and Tehran dramatically limited the number of tanker ships allowed to traverse the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway that supplies oil to a host of countries, including economic powers such as China, India, Japan and South Korea. House Intelligence ranking member Jim Himes, during a March 19 hearing, highlighted how the scope of the U.S. mission in Iran has metastasized over four deadly weeks — but with oil shipments delayed and prices rising, and the Islamic Republic government still intact and firing missiles and drones. “How do we feel about a new supreme leader who is more extreme and vicious and dedicated to the development of a nuclear weapon than the last one? Do we do a deal with him? How do we get him to open the Strait of Hormuz? Do we bomb more?” the Connecticut Democrat said. “And if we sail away and declare victory, are we back there nine months from now to re-sink a rebuilt navy and re-bomb rebuilt missile launchers? Is this going to be [an] every nine-month thing or is it going to be annual?” Trump himself has been focused on Iran’s oil stores and infrastructure, as well as Gulf allies that initially were skeptical of the U.S.-Israeli military strikes but now view a wounded Islamic Republic government as too dangerous and unpredictable not to destroy. Such worries were a reason Aaron David Miller, a former senior State Department adviser to Republican and Democratic administrations, said last week that what began as a war of choice for Trump has become one of “necessity.” That became the case “once it got out of the ‘Israeli-American-Iranian triangle’ and elevated to a global crisis. Now you have helium, LNG, fertilizer prices way up,” Miller said in a Thursday telephone interview, using shorthand for liquefied natural gas. “Once you gave Iran the capacity, which they’ve always had, to determine who gets in and who gets out of the Strait, you now have a global crisis — and no way out.” As Trump has lurched from one justification for the ever-expanding mission to the next, he tried — again — this week to describe the current situation in the Strait as other countries’ collective problem. “All of those countries that can’t get jet fuel because of the Strait of Hormuz, like the United Kingdom, which refused to get involved in the decapitation of Iran, I have a suggestion for you: Number 1, buy from the U.S., we have plenty, and Number 2, build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait, and just TAKE IT,” Trump wrote on his social media platform Tuesday morning. “You’ll have to start learning how to fight for yourself, the U.S.A. won’t be there to help you anymore, just like you weren’t there for us. Iran has been, essentially, decimated,” he added. “The hard part is done. Go get your own oil!” Yet, his Defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, a short time later said during a Pentagon briefing that returning Hormuz to its pre-war ship-passage rate had indeed become a focus of the administration’s mission. “We would much prefer to get a deal. If Iran was willing to relinquish material they have and ambitions they have, open the Strait, great,” Hegseth said. “That’s the goal.” ‘Never be the same’ Like other presidents before him, Trump appeared on Feb. 28 to believe he could avoid mission creep. But Miller said the president’s pre-war thinking has “proven, so far, to be highly flawed.” “No. 1, it was flawed to believe that American and Israeli military dominance would somehow force concessions or capitulation. No. 2, it was flawed to think that the regime would be hollowed out by decapitation strikes, and its command and control would be eliminated … by the death of Khamenei,” Miller said. Trump mused publicly about identifying and somehow installing as Iran’s next long-term leader someone in the mold of Venezuela’s acting president, Delcy Rodriguez, who took over after Trump sent U.S. military and law enforcement personnel to arrest former President Nicolás Maduro. But some Democratic lawmakers and analysts, including Miller, have said that’s a doubtful scenario, which would only further complicate and elongate the U.S. mission. “Because whatever happens to Iran, Iran will never be the same country again. If Trump is looking for an Iranian Delcy Rodriguez, what he got in new supreme leader is most likely an Iranian Kim Jong Un — and not just one,” Miller said, referring to Mojtaba Khamenei, the successor to his father as Iran’s supreme leader. “Now there’s a couple of those sitting atop the government, and that’s a problem.” Trump also has been pressed in recent days about whether he might send in American ground forces to seize and remove Iran’s 1,000 pounds of enriched uranium. “Yeah,” he responded on March 23 in Palm Beach, Fla., to a reporter who had asked if he wanted to take Iran’s uranium stocks before winding down the conflict. “And we want no enrichment. But we also want the enriched uranium,” he said before a trip to Memphis that included a stop at Elvis Presley’s Graceland estate, before appearing to shrug off the risks for ground troops: “If this happens, it’s a great start for Iran to build itself back, and it’s everything that we want. And it’s also great for Israel, and it’s great for the other Middle Eastern countries, Saudi Arabia, U.A.E., Qatar, all of them, Kuwait and Bahrain, in particular.” Edward Lengel, a former chief historian for the White House Historical Association, said last week that Trump being so hands-on in managing the conflict and speaking frequently about it, has complicated his military commanders’ jobs. “[Franklin D. Roosevelt] in World War II had less of a role than Woodrow Wilson did in the First World War. He stayed mostly behind the scenes and left it to his top commanders to make strategic decisions,” Lengel, also a military historian, said during a telephone interview. “But FDR and other presidents did a better job than the current president of explaining the war and what he was doing. “Trump has made little attempts to explain or justify this,” he added. “It’s like he just wanted to do it.”

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The White House is now apparently using Russian tactics to convince the American public that the war in Iran is not, in fact, a war. When asked by reporters at the White House on Thursday whether the most intense sustained air campaign by American forces since the invasion of Iraq would be over by the midterms, Vice President JD Vance replied: “I wouldn’t call it a war.

” Vladimir Putin said much the same thing when he invaded Ukraine. Russia was not fighting a war either, the Kremlin insisted; it was merely conducting a “special military operation.” If that comparison strikes you as shocking, consider the contours of the two conflicts.

A vastly more powerful military launched a punishing offensive against a smaller, less well-equipped adversary, inflicted enormous damage without achieving a decisive resolution, and then found itself drawn into a longer, grinding conflict with no clear way out.

The motivations behind the wars may be different, and they’re playing out in different theaters, but the pattern is eerily similar. Now, so too is the attempt by those in power to control how the public understands, and even what it is allowed to call, the obvious war unfolding in front of them.

If This Isn’t a War, What Is? Let us take a moment to assess what exactly has happened since February 28, when the U.S. launched Operation Epic Fury. The opening U.S.-Israeli attack killed Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, along with the commander of the Revolutionary Guard, the defense minister and various other senior officials.

According to the U.S. military’s own accounting, the first 38 days of major combat operations involved more than 10,200 sorties and 13,500 strikes. U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) says those attacks damaged or destroyed more than 85 percent of Iran’s ballistic missile, drone and naval defense industrial base, while knocking out 82 percent of its air-defense missile systems.

The U.S. sent carrier strike groups and warships into the region, later imposing a military blockade on Iranian ports. Meanwhile, American and allied air defenses intercepted more than 6,000 Iranian attack drones and 1,500 ballistic missiles fired at U.

S. forces, Israel and American partners across the Middle East. More than 50,000 U.S. service members remain deployed across the region. The fighting has killed 18 U.S. service members and at least 8,000 people across Iran, Lebanon, Israel and the Gulf states.

More than 750 U.S. service members have been wounded. Last month, during a lull in the fighting, the U.S. Treasury unveiled a sanctions package likened to an “economic D-day” that is designed to make Iran an “economic outcast” and cut the adversary off from all available forms of economic support.

In the announcement, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent openly declared that Iran had been “at war against America” for 47 years. This week, the shooting resumed; the U.S. hit targets in and around the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran blasted missiles at targets in Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan and Iraq.

All this from an administration that almost exactly a year ago launched a rapid rebrand of the Defense Department into the “Department of War”. No boots on the ground, though, so it’s not a war, right? Tell It Kind of Like It Is Even the very best snake-oil salesman would have a hard time convincing people that the war in Iran isn’t a war.

So why is JD Vance even trying? Well, if there’s one thing politicians understand better than anyone, it’s the importance of language and rhetoric. Words have immense power; a well-written speech can unite millions of people, and a catchy slogan like Make America Great Again can come to represent an entire political philosophy.

But war is a pesky word. For one, it implies there will eventually be a winner and a loser. It also brings with it certain expectations—and some very difficult questions. What is the objective? How many people will die? When will it end? And, perhaps most dangerously of all: was it worth it?

Those are not questions the White House wants Americans to be asking. Trump built a substantial part of his political identity around ending, rather than beginning, America’s “endless wars.” When Washington and Tehran signed a memorandum of understanding in June, the White House presented it as proof that Trump’s America First approach could deliver peace without another prolonged Middle Eastern conflict.

Then the hostilities started again. Earlier this week, Trump shared a Truth Social graphic declaring that “Hormuz Oil Volumes are BACK!”, saying 18 million barrels a day were once again leaving the Strait, compared with 20 million before the war. No independent commodity tracking company or energy analyst appeared to verify Trump’s claims.

But most Americans won’t be checking tanker-tracking dashboards. What they’ll care about is the cold, hard fact that diesel hit a new record price this morning, soaring to an average of $5.85 a gallon for the first time ever. Gasoline is $4.15 a gallon on average, compared with $3.

20 at this time last year, according to AAA. The numbers on the sign at the gas station and the price on the grocery receipt aren’t affected by Trump’s tall tales, but they’ll surely affect how Americans vote at the midterms. When viewed in this light, Vance’s attempt to discourage reporters from “call[ing] it a war” begins to make sense.

A war is something that we want to end. It tends to result in a winner and a loser. And its worth is up for debate at all times. A different kind of engagement that doesn’t quite meet the threshold of war—say, a special military operation—is not exposed to the same kind of scrutiny.

Vance effectively made that case himself. “When you ask, ‘When will this end?’ You’re asking me a question like, ‘When will the Iranians stop shooting at ships?’” he said. By that logic, there is no American war—only recurring Iranian provocations that require American military responses.

That’s exactly the logic applied by Putin to Ukraine and supposed expansion of NATO. Putting the Toothpaste Back in the Tube U.S. lawmakers have repeatedly invoked the War Powers Resolution to challenge Trump’s authority to keep fighting Iran without specific congressional authorization.

The law generally gives a president 60 days after U.S. forces enter “hostilities” to secure congressional approval or bring those hostilities to an end. That makes the pauses in fighting hugely important. When the original 60-day deadline arrived in May, Trump told Congress that the temporary ceasefire reached in April meant the hostilities that began on February 28 had ended.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth argued that the War Powers clock could “pause, or stop” when the shooting did. That position is disputed by legal experts, but its political utility is obvious. If every new outbreak of fighting can be treated as a separate skirmish, rather than part of one continuous war, the administration can argue that a fresh 60-day clock starts each time.

Vance’s insistence that there is no continuing “war” fits neatly for an administration that has already tried to divide six months of conflict into separate periods of hostilities, interrupted by ceasefires and pauses. This brings us back to Moscow.

The Kremlin’s own linguistic trick was also about making one sprawling war sound smaller, more limited and more manageable than it really was. From the very beginning of the invasion, Putin described the war as a special military operation. Only after two years of grinding warfare did Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov openly declare Russia to be in a “state of war”—and even then, he said the transformation had occurred because the “collective West” had joined the fight against Russia.

Vance is playing a similar game, but in reverse. Only now—with soaring fuel prices, mounting casualties, concerns over the military’s munitions stockpiles, and midterm elections on the horizon—is the conflict no longer a war. You can’t put the genie back in the bottle, though, and the American people aren’t stupid.

Vance and the White House may discover in November that voters are perfectly capable of recognizing a war, even when the vice president doesn’t want to call it one.

Location: Iran