strikeMar 31, 2026

Destroy the regime’s power without occupying Iran: A smarter war plan

Summary

The U.S.-Iran war has been underway for a month now. It is increasingly difficult to distinguish real strategic and military expertise from politicized opinion, speculation and narrative. Too many people jump immediately from where we are today to a full-scale ground invasion. They assume the only option is for U.S. forces to seize Tehran, secure nuclear material by force, destroy a supposed million-man army, and then get pulled into another decades-long nation-building effort or fight a Maoist-style insurgency. That is not analysis. That is shallow thinking rooted in outdated and often biased mental models of war. President Trump has signaled a 10-day pause on strikes against Iran’s energy infrastructure, now extended to April 6. We are days into that timeline. But the real question is not what has been done. The real question is what options remain. It is a given that CENTCOM and Israel will continue systematic attacks on Iran’s military system. Iran entered this war with thousands of ballistic missiles, hundreds of launchers, a dispersed drone enterprise, a layered naval capability in the Gulf, remnants of a nuclear enrichment program, and a military industrial base built for redundancy and survivability. That system is being destroyed. But it is not yet eliminated. AI WAR IN IRAN HAS BROUGHT CONFLICT TO SILICON VALLEY. NO ONE IS READY At the same time, Israel is targeting something far more important than just military capability. It is targeting the regime’s ability to rule once the bombs stop falling. That means hunting and eliminating political and military leadership. It means degrading the Basij, the regime’s internal enforcement arm. It means targeting checkpoints, intelligence nodes and internal security infrastructure. This is not just tactical action. This is strategic pressure applied simultaneously against Iran’s means and its will. Its ability to fight and its ability to govern are being targeted at the same time. That is how you coerce behavior change without occupying a capital. It is important to anchor any discussion in the stated strategic objectives. As articulated by senior U.S. leaders, the objectives of Operation Epic Fury are: destroy Iran’s missile arsenal and its ability to produce more, dismantle its navy and its ability to threaten global shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. While regime change has been mentioned and questions have been raised about whether it would be good or bad, it is not the declared U.S. objective. Behavior change is. The current regime has been given pathways, including diplomatic proposals, to alter its course. That matters because it shapes the options available. This is not about occupying Tehran. It is about paralyzing the regime, destroying its capabilities, and forcing it to accept new terms. TRUMP VOWS TO HIT IRAN 'VERY HARD' AFTER OBLITERATING NEARLY '90 PERCENT' OF REGIME MISSILES If the regime collapses under the combined weight of military pressure and its own economic fragility, the United States can still achieve its objectives in a fundamentally different strategic environment. But regime collapse is not required to succeed. From here, the range of options expands, not contracts. One option is to strike the regime’s economic center of gravity. Kharg Island handles roughly 85 to 90 percent of Iran’s oil exports, often between 1.5 and 2 million barrels per day. That oil is the regime’s primary source of hard currency. Seize it, disable it, or destroy export capacity, and you do not just hurt the economy. You paralyze the regime’s ability to fund its military, sustain patronage networks, and maintain internal control. US MOVES AIRBORNE TROOPS, MARINES AS IRAN REJECTS CEASEFIRE, RAISING GROUND WAR POTENTIAL This matters because the regime has already shown signs of fragility under economic pressure. The January 2026 protests were driven by inflation, banking instability, and the inability to provide basic services, including severe water shortages affecting millions in Tehran. There were even discussions about relocating the capital due to an inability to provide potable water. The regime responded with mass violence, killing over 32,000 civilians in one of the most brutal crackdowns in its modern history. Therefore, economic pressure is not theoretical. It has already brought the regime close to the edge. Another option is to target the national power grid. Iran’s electricity system is concentrated around major urban hubs. Precision strikes on key substations and transmission nodes can create cascading outages across entire regions. Tehran goes dark. The regime would be in immediate trouble without power. Command and control, surveillance, communications, and internal security coordination all depend on it. Precision strikes on key substations and transmission nodes can create cascading outages without total destruction of infrastructure. The U.S. has demonstrated that capability in past conflicts. Cyber operations expand this further. Iran has repeatedly shut down internet access to control its population. That capability can be reversed. Disrupt regime command networks while enabling connectivity for the population through external systems. Information becomes a weapon. Control of narrative, coordination, and awareness shifts away from the regime. The Strait of Hormuz remains decisive terrain. Roughly 20 percent of global oil supply, about 20 million barrels per day, flows through it. Iran’s strategy has long been to threaten and manipulate that flow. One option is to move from deterrence to control. Seize or neutralize key islands. Experts have long identified Abu Musa and the Greater and Lesser Tunb islands as critical terrain controlling access to the Strait. Qeshm Island, sitting along the northern edge, hosts IRGC naval facilities, missile systems, and surveillance infrastructure. These positions enable Iran’s anti-ship missile coverage, fast attack craft operations, and maritime coercion. Controlling or neutralizing these islands would fundamentally alter Iran’s ability to contest the Strait. Iran has also built a "toll booth" system in the Strait. The IRGC has created a de facto system where ships must be approved, routed through Iranian-influenced lanes, and in some cases pay millions for safe passage. Reports indicate fees reaching up to $2 million per tanker, selective approval based on political alignment, and designated transit corridors near Larak Island under regime control. The United States and Israel have the capability to systematically dismantle this system. Target the leadership directing it. Destroy the coastal radar, ISR nodes and command centers enabling it. Eliminate the fast attack craft, drones, and missile batteries enforcing it. Break the system, and you break Iran’s ability to turn a global chokepoint into a regime-controlled revenue and coercion mechanism. A related option is to interdict Iranian oil exports at sea. Iran exports roughly 1.5 to 2 million barrels per day, much of it through sanctions evasion networks. Stop and divert tankers. Enforce inspections and seizures at scale. This is already happening at a limited level. Scaling it drives regime revenue toward zero. No revenue means no missiles, no proxies, no repression, no functioning state. INSIDE IRAN’S MILITARY: MISSILES, MILITIAS AND A FORCE BUILT FOR SURVIVAL Other options shift inward. Iran’s population is over 85 million, young, urban, and repeatedly discontent. Available polling, protest patterns, and observable unrest all suggest that well over 50 percent of the population opposes the regime, and possibly much higher. This is not a solid or stable base of power. The January 2026 protests are a clear signal of that underlying pressure. Until now, civilians have largely been told to shelter. That could change. Messaging, corridors, and psychological operations could begin to separate the population from the regime’s control mechanisms. That can be paired with support to internal resistance. Air resupply of weapons, communications, and intelligence directly to resistance groups that may or may not exist. Iran has multiple internal fault lines, ethnic, political, and regional, that have historically produced opposition and unrest. When external pressure aligns with internal resistance, regimes fracture faster, or at least the pressure on the regime increases significantly. At the same time, strikes can continue expanding beyond traditional military targets. The regime’s control system is a network: leadership, IRGC headquarters, Basij units, police, intelligence services, and repression infrastructure. Target those nodes, and you accelerate the erosion of centralized authority. History shows pressure creates fractures. Military leaders hedge. Intelligence services fracture. Political elites reposition. Defections occur. Working with defectors multiplies effects far beyond what strikes alone can achieve. There is also much we do not know. We do not have full visibility into where the regime is strongest or weakest. But indicators matter. Reports of attempts to expand mobilization, including lowering recruitment thresholds to as young as twelve, suggest stress. That is not the behavior of a confident regime. IRAN’S REMAINING WEAPONS: HOW TEHRAN CAN STILL DISRUPT THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ None of these options exist in isolation. They can be combined. Destroy Iran’s missile arsenal and production capacity. Dismantle its navy. Continue degrading its nuclear program. Deny its ability to project power beyond its borders. At the same time, paralyze decision-making by targeting leadership and command systems. Apply pressure across military, economic, informational, and political domains simultaneously. CLICK HERE FOR MORE FOX NEWS OPINION Attack the regime’s means and its will at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously. The objective is to impose multiple dilemmas, more than the regime can handle. Force it into reactive survival. Stretch its decision cycles. Overwhelm its ability to coordinate and control. TANVI RATNA: WITH ONE WAR, TRUMP IS BREAKING MIDDLE EAST'S OLD POWER STRUCTURE War is not a checklist. It is the alignment of ends, ways, and means under conditions of uncertainty. Options can be sequenced, layered, or applied simultaneously. The United States has not run out of options. It has plenty it has not used, many that no one is talking about or that none of us can fully imagine without access to far more than what exists in the public domain, but could. CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS APP Lastly, be careful of analysts who speak in certainties or rely on surface analogies. Iran is not Vietnam, Afghanistan, or Iraq. It is not 1968, 2002, or 2003. The context of each is fundamentally different. The political objectives, from regime behavior change to regime survival, are different. Past wars involved nation building, attempts to create democracy, prolonged fights against insurgencies, and enemies who enjoyed sanctuary outside the operating environment. Those are not the same conditions or objectives at play here. The geography, technology, intelligence and regional dynamics are different. The options available today are far broader and more precise against the objectives. We know a lot about what has been struck. We do not fully know what remains. More importantly, we do not know what decisions will be made next by either side. That uncertainty is not a flaw in analysis. It is the nature of war.

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John SpencerBy John Spencer
The U.S.-Iran war has been underway for a month now. It is increasingly difficult to distinguish real strategic and military expertise from politicized opinion, speculation and narrative. Too many people jump immediately from where we are today to a full-scale ground invasion. Th…

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Jul 21, 2026strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIranProxy

US strikes Iran for 10th consecutive night as Tehran strikes tanker in the Strait of Hormuz

○ 1 source

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Iran attacked a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz early Tuesday, forcing its crew to abandon the ship, while the United States conducted yet another round of airstrikes targeting the Islamic Republic as they struggle over control of the key waterway.

The 10 consecutive nights of U.S. airstrikes haven’t compelled Tehran to loosen its grip on the strait, through which about a fifth of all crude oil and natural gas traded once passed in peacetime. Even as the U.S. and Iran inch closer to all-out war again, Iran’s interior minister traveled to Pakistan, a key mediator in the conflict, for talks.

However, it remains unclear just what new deal could be reached to end the fighting. The interim deal signed last month that was meant to end the fighting has crumbled. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has largely stalled. And as fighting intensifies, both sides have targeted civilian infrastructure relied on by millions of people.

“Iran and groups supportive of Iran may target other U.S. interests overseas or at locations associated with the United States and Americans throughout the world,” the U.S. State Department said in a new warning to Americans. The escalation has pushed oil prices higher in recent weeks.

Benchmark Brent crude traded Tuesday above $88 a barrel and regular gasoline in the U.S. climbed to an average of $4 a gallon, keeping pressure on Americans’ wallets ahead of midterm elections this fall. Meanwhile, the U.S. military identified two soldiers who were killed in Jordan in attacks that left a third person missing.

Separately, the military confirmed another death in Iraq on Saturday during the “controlled detonation” of a downed Iranian drone. President Donald Trump took to social media on Monday to warn that “Every time Iran kills an American Soldier they will pay for that killing many times over!

” Trump was planning to attend a ceremony on Tuesday evening at Dover Air Force Base, where at least one service member’s remains were due to arrive. US strikes come as ships attacked The U.S. military’s Central Command said Tuesday it targeted “Iranian military command centers, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites and air defense systems.

” It released more footage of bombings that targeted sites in Iran. “American forces remain postured and prepared to hold Iran accountable for unwarranted aggression toward civilian mariners seeking to freely and openly transit the strait,” the command said.

Iranian state media reported that explosions were heard in Fars, Hormozgan, Ilam, Kerman and Sistan and Baluchistan provinces. However, traffic through the strait has slowed to a crawl during the latest violence. Lloyd's List Intelligence said only three ships transited the strait on Sunday.

The British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center said a tanker came under attack early Tuesday in the strait off Oman, forcing the crew to abandon the vessel. Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard claimed the attack, as well as two other attacks on ships Monday in the waterway.

The route around Oman has been the one the U.S. military has encouraged ships to travel to avoid Iran’s control. The UKMTO separately reported Tuesday that another previously unknown attack on a ship took place early the previous day. Tehran also hit U.

S.-allied countries throughout the Middle East. Jordan military's said Tuesday that Iran targeted it with five drones and three missiles, all of which were shot down. Bahrain sounded its missile alert sirens Tuesday afternoon as another Iranian barrage targeted the island kingdom, which is home to the U.

S. Navy's 5th Fleet. Nearly 100 US injuries since early July The Pentagon’s chief spokesperson said nearly 100 U.S. service members have been injured since the U.S. restarted strikes on July 7, and 96% of them have returned to duty.

“The vast majority of injuries experienced were minor concussions,” Sean Parnell posted Monday on X in response to a New York Times report that the Pentagon has withheld information about troop injuries from Iranian strikes. He denied that the Pentagon was hiding data about injuries.

However, the Defense Casualty Analysis System, the military’s clearinghouse for reporting deaths and injuries in conflict, has not been updated as of Monday night with the latest attacks. Yemen rebels threaten attacks on other Mideast waterway Yemen’s Houthi rebels announced a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia on Monday.

The Houthis, who are backed by Iran, said they would block shipping between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden by targeting the Bab el-Mandeb, a maritime chokepoint like the Strait of Hormuz, in response to an attack on Sanaa International Airport last week that they blamed on Saudi Arabia.

With the Strait of Hormuz blocked, Saudi Arabia has been relying on a pipeline to the Red Sea to get millions of barrels of oil out to market. The Houthis earlier demonstrated their ability to disrupt shipping there when they targeted ships for months over the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, with over 100 vessels attacked.

Saudi Arabia’s military said it would keep the waterway open. “All Houthi threats against transiting vessels will be dealt with swiftly and firmly, as such threats are a blatant violation of international law and fall under acts of maritime piracy,” said Maj.

Gen, Turki al-Malki, a Saudi military spokesman. A glimmer of hope for diplomacy Pakistan has intensified diplomatic efforts in recent days to resuscitate the interim deal. Iranian Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni arrived in Islamabad on Monday for two days of talks with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and others.

On Sunday, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters that the U.S. is still open to negotiating with Iran but that “it has to be real.” “If the door opens to diplomacy — if the guys that want to do something productive for Iran win and take control of that system, or take control of the negotiations — that’ll be a very positive development,” Rubio said.

“That’s not where we are tonight, unfortunately.” Iranian authorities on Sunday said at least 50 people have been killed and 517 wounded in the latest rounds of U.S. strikes. Since the war began on Feb. 28, 17 U.S. service members have been killed.

JON GAMBRELL, Associated Press

Jul 21, 2026strikeUnverifiedUSIranRussiaChina

How the US-Iran conflict has thrown India’s Chabahar plans into doubt

○ 1 source

US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth posted social media images showing damage to a maritime control tower at Iran’s Chabahar port following reported US military strikes, accompanied by the caption “Iran does not control the Strait of Hormuz.” India’s Ministry of External Affairs stated that the Shahid Beheshti terminal operated by India at the port sustained no damage.

The ministry reiterated its position that civilian infrastructure should not be targeted during conflicts.

Location: Iran

Divya A

Jul 21, 2026strikeUnverifiedUSIranProxy

U.S. strikes Iran and Houthis threaten Saudi Arabia shipping as mediators push 10-day ceasefire

○ 1 source

U.S. strikes Iran and Houthis threaten Saudi Arabia shipping as mediators push 10-day ceasefire - The U.S. has carried out its tenth consecutive evening of attacks against Iran. - Iran attacked a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz early Tuesday, while Houthi militants in Yemen declared a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia.

- Rystad Energy has warned about the risk of a significant rebound in oil prices. The U.S. completed a fresh round of strikes against Iran on Monday evening as Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis threatened to impose a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia, potentially opening a new front in the Middle East conflict.

The latest cycle of tit-for-tat strikes comes amid reports that regional mediators have presented Washington and Tehran with a proposal for a 10-day ceasefire, a pitch that could put last month's Memorandum of Understanding back on track. The U.S. Central Command said overnight that it had carried out another round of strikes on Iran at 9 p.

m. ET on Monday. "U.S. forces struck Iranian military command centers, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites, and air defense systems to degrade Iran's ability to continue attacking commercial vessels flowing through the Strait of Hormuz," Centcom said in a statement.

It added that commercial vessel transits through the strategically vital waterway were continuing. Centcom forces, the statement said, had facilitated the transit of around 900 commercial vessels and 450 million barrels of crude oil through the strait since early May.

Iran, meanwhile, attacked a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz early Tuesday, forcing its crew to abandon the vessel as it seeks to tighten its control over the waterway, one that typically handles around 20% of the world's oil traffic. Houthi militants in Yemen on Monday declared a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia effective immediately, a move that could substantially threaten Middle East oil supplies.

The Houthis have repeatedly threatened to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait during the U.S.-Iran war. The strait is a choke point for commercial ship traffic that connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and global markets. The militants, in a statement carried by state news, accused the Saudis of laying an "aggressive siege" against them.

Tensions escalated last week after they claimed that Riyadh had bombed Sanaa International Airport. The Saudi-led coalition in Yemen said that it would respond to the Houthis naval blockade with force, reportedly describing such threats as "a blatant violation of international law.

" 10-day ceasefire 'won't be an easy task' Oil prices rose briefly on news of the Houthi statement but later pared gains as energy market participants closely monitored the prospect of a diplomatic breakthrough. International benchmark Brent crude futures with September delivery were last seen trading 0.

5% lower at $88.77 per barrel, having surpassed $90 in the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures with August delivery, meanwhile, stood 0.4% lower at $82.88. Strategists at ING said there's some hope of de-escalation between the U.S.

and Iran given the reports that mediators are proposing a 10-day ceasefire. "This won't be an easy task," ING's Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said in a research note published Tuesday. "Large divisions remain between the US and Iran. And President Trump said the US would retaliate following the deaths of several American troops," they added.

In a post on Truth Social on Monday, President Donald Trump said: "Every time Iran kills an American Soldier they will pay for that killing many times over!" He added that this directive had been passed on to every leader in the military. Saudi Arabia oil risk Jorge León, senior vice president and head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, said the Houthis' threat puts approximately 2.

5 million barrels per day of Saudi Arabian oil at risk at a time when traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is at a standstill. "With the Gulf's primary maritime outlet largely closed, the market is increasingly dependent on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline and Red Sea terminals to maintain export flows," León said Monday in a research note.

Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline network, or Petroline, is a roughly 750-mile system that transports crude across Saudi Arabia, connecting Abqaiq on the oil-rich kingdom's eastern Gulf coast to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea. "Any disruption at Bab el-Mandeb would therefore threaten not only Saudi shipments but one of the few remaining routes capable of compensating for the severe reduction in Hormuz traffic," León said.

"If a ceasefire does not materialize and Hormuz remains largely closed while the Houthi threat to Red Sea shipping intensifies, the risk of a significant rebound in oil prices would be substantial," he added. — CNBC's Chloe Taylor and Spencer Kimball both contributed to this report.

Location: Iran

Sam Meredith

Jul 21, 2026strikeUnverifiedIsraelIranProxy

How Houthi Red Sea blockade tightens Iran's grip on energy supplies

○ 1 source

Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis announced Monday they would impose a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia, further throttling a global energy market already greatly restricted by Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This is why it matters and what it means for the Iran war and the global energy crisis.

It is not clear how the Houthis would carry out a maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia, its northern neighbor along the Red Sea coast, or whether it would include a return to attacks on shipping. Yemen sits on the Bab el-Mandeb strait – the southern gateway to the Red Sea – and closing that would open up a new front in the energy crisis and Iran's overarching conflict with the U.

S. With the Strait of Hormuz already disrupted, the Red Sea has become a critical alternative outlet for Gulf oil and other products. A serious disruption would mean both of the Middle East's major oil export routes are shut simultaneously. Iran's partial blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after Israel and the U.

S. attacked it on Feb. 28 disrupted most oil and other exports from the Gulf, raising prices and delivering a global energy shock. Saudi Arabia responded by diverting more than 70% of its normal daily crude exports to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Ships from Yanbu bound for Europe go north through the Suez Canal.

Those heading to Asia go south through Bab el-Mandeb. Shipments from Yanbu averaged 4 million barrels per day in recent weeks according to data from Kpler and Signal Ocean, up from around 973,000 bpd a year earlier. Total petroleum volumes transiting Bab el-Mandeb amounted to 7.

4 million bpd in June, or about 7% of global oil output, according to Kpler data, up from 4.2 million bpd last year. That has provided a lifeline for the energy market, helping to keep down global oil prices. Saudi Arabia is considering an expansion of its crude oil pipeline to the Red Sea coast, Reuters reported last week.

When the Houthis launched attacks on Red Sea shipping in November 2023, Gulf oil exports were flowing freely. The Houthis have been in a civil war against the Saudi-backed, internationally recognized government for more than a decade and have attacked Gulf neighbors with missiles and drones.

However, a 2022 truce between the country's warring sides largely held until last week, when Yemen's internationally recognized government said it had struck Sanaa airport to stop an Iranian plane landing. The Houthis said Saudi Arabia was responsible and, in response, fired missiles at Abha airport in the kingdom's mountainous southwest.

A senior Houthi official, politburo member Mohammad al-Farah, then warned in an interview on Iran's Press TV website that if the situation kept escalating, Bab el-Mandeb would be closed. The U.S. says Iran has armed, funded and trained the Houthis with help from Hezbollah.

The Houthis deny being an Iranian proxy and say they develop their own weapons. It is not clear how far the group's stance on Bab el-Mandeb and the Red Sea stems from its own strategic priorities or is being made on Iran's behalf. After Israel's genocidal campaign in Gaza, the Houthis began firing at Israel and on shipping in the Red Sea, saying they were doing so in support of Palestinians.

The attacks severely disrupted global shipping, prompting Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd and other major companies to divert around Africa – a far longer, more expensive route. Red Sea traffic has not recovered since, with traffic through the Suez Canal down 52% in 2025 versus 2023 levels and at its lowest in at least 50 years, Suez Canal Authority data shows.

A U.S.-led mission to restore free navigation in the Red Sea involved repeated strikes on Houthi targets and a campaign that shot down hundreds of drones and missiles. But some Houthi attacks continued until last summer, only ending completely with the Gaza cease-fire in October.

Last month, the Houthis said they would ban ships linked to Israel from the Red Sea after Israel renewed military attacks on Iran. However, that threat was never acted on and shipping groups Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd are resuming some Red Sea routes that they had abandoned during the Houthi attacks last year, Maersk said this month.

While Hezbollah and the Iraqi groups joined the war early with rocket and drone fire after the first U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, the Houthis had been comparatively quiet. The group's leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi said on March 5: "Our fingers are on the trigger at any moment should developments warrant it.

" Iranian commanders have repeatedly warned that the Houthis could join the war. The Houthis launched a few missile and drone attacks on Israel in late March and early April. Revolutionary Guards Quds Force commander Esmaeil Qaani said on June 1 they could choke off the Red Sea.

That may now have changed with their announcement of the blockade on Monday against Saudi Arabia in retaliation for what they called the kingdom's siege of its ports and airports, including last week's strike.

Reuters