Thailand should brace for a prolonged period of energy volatility and intensifying geopolitical rivalry as conflicts in the Middle East threaten to disrupt global oil supplies, experts warn. Their warning came during a discussion on Friday examining how escalating tensions in the region could affect Thailand's economy, energy security and foreign policy. The forum was organised by Thailand Science Research and Innovation in collaboration with the Princess Maha Chakri Sirindhorn Anthropology Centre and Thai PBS. Speakers said geopolitical conflict, the global energy transition and demographic change are reshaping Thailand's strategic environment. Panellists warned the war involving the United States, Israel and Iran could keep global energy markets volatile. Iran retains the capacity to respond strategically, including closing the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most critical oil shipping routes. Chulalongkorn University political scientist Prof Siripan Nogsuan Sawasdee said Thailand should avoid taking sides amid rising geopolitical tensions and instead strengthen diplomatic engagement through bilateral and multilateral channels. She added that deeper cooperation within Asean could help Thailand maintain strategic balance when dealing with major powers such as China and the US. Thammasat University political science lecturer Fuadi Pitsuwan said Thailand should also expand ties with "middle-power" countries to help sustain regional stability. Strengthening relations with Cambodia, he said, could support cooperation on energy resources in overlapping maritime areas. Meanwhile, Assoc Prof Srawut Aree, director of the Muslim Studies Centre at Chulalongkorn University, said economic diversification in the Middle East is encouraging new strategic alignments among Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkiye, potentially creating opportunities for Thailand to broaden its partnerships. Thailand's energy security is already under strain. Prof Praipol Koomsup, former dean of economics at Thammasat University, said the country's Oil Fuel Fund -- a key mechanism used to stabilise domestic fuel prices -- has reached its limits, meaning the government may have to either increase debt to sustain subsidies or allow retail prices to rise. Thailand currently holds fewer than 60 days of oil reserves and is exploring alternative supply sources, including imports from Malaysia and Russia. Palm-based biodiesel could provide a short-term alternative for diesel-dependent transport. Looking ahead, Nuwong Chollacoop of the National Science and Technology Development Agency said Thailand must accelerate investment in long-term energy solutions such as hydrogen and other low-carbon technologies.
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International mediators have proposed a 10-day ceasefire between the United States and Iran, according to a senior Iranian official cited in reports. The measure is described as intended to reduce hostilities and allow renewed talks on a prior interim agreement.
Both sides are assessing next steps in the current regional security situation.
Reports indicate that a US-Iran ceasefire has broken down amid renewed fighting, with the potential impact of mediation efforts by Pakistan, Qatar, and Oman remaining unclear. Earlier diplomatic steps included a June memorandum of understanding between the parties for further negotiations and talks hosted in Geneva in February.
The summary also references Europe’s historical role in diplomacy, including the 1814-15 Congress of Vienna.
Donald Trump stated in a Fox News interview that his representatives had spoken with Iranian officials an hour earlier and that those officials wanted to make a deal to end the conflict, though he noted they had broken prior agreements and expressed uncertainty about whether one would be reached.
He added that people do not want to die and that Iran would need to proceed carefully to avoid further losses. The remarks come amid an ongoing US-Iran conflict that has involved casualties and shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, with some social media users criticizing the repetition of similar statements.
Why the Iran-US ceasefire is falling apart Iran and the US have resumed fighting because they don’t see each other as ‘reliable negotiating partners’, says analyst Ali Vaez. Neither Iran nor the United States seems able to deliver a “knockout blow at an acceptable price” to the other side, and both know “they have no choice other than engaging in diplomacy”, but they’re not ready to make uncomfortable concessions, argues Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at International Crisis Group.
Vaez tells host Steve Clemons that Tehran and Washington are trying to “enforce their own interpretation” of the ceasefire agreement they signed last month. President Trump has become “frustrated” with diplomacy because he’s not seeing “the kind of quick results that he likes to see”, Vaez says.