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economicMay 27, 2026

Dollar Recovers on Conflicting US-Iran Peace Plans

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The dollar index (DXY00) on Wednesday rose by +0.03%. The dollar recovered from early losses on Wednesday and posted modest gains on conflicting signals about prospects for a US-Iran deal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian television said it obtained an unofficial draft of the US-Iran memorandum, which stated that US military forces would lift the naval blockade of Iran, while Iran would allow restored commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. However, the dollar rebounded when US officials said the unofficial draft obtained by Iranian state television is a "complete fabrication" and "not true." The dollar also garnered support after the May Richmond Fed manufacturing survey of current conditions rose more than expected to a 4.5-year high The dollar initially moved lower on Wednesday after WTI crude oil plunged by more than 5% to a 5-week low, which lowered inflation expectations and may prompt the Fed to ease monetary policy, a negative factor for the dollar. Also, Wednesday's rally in the Chinese yuan to a 3.25-year high weighed on the dollar.Join 200K+ Subscribers: Find out why the midday Barchart Brief newsletter is a must-read for thousands daily. The US May Richmond Fed manufacturing survey of current conditions rose +10 to a 4.5-year high of 13. stronger than expectations of 4. Swaps markets are discounting the odds at 4% for a 25 bp rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on June 16-17. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) fell from a 1-week high on Wednesday and finished down by -0.01%. Wednesday's rebound in the dollar from early losses to higher on the day sparked long liquidation in the euro. The euro was also under pressure after German economic advisers cut their 2026 GDP forecast for Germany. The euro initially moved higher on Wednesday amid hawkish ECB comments after ECB Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras said, "The likeliest outcome is an ECB interest rate hike in June." Also, Wednesday's -5% plunge in crude oil prices to a 5-week low was supportive of the Eurozone economy and the euro, as Europe imports most of its energy. Eurozone Apr new car registrations rose +5.1% y/y to 972,000 units. ECB Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras said, "The likeliest outcome is an ECB interest rate hike in June" as the conflict in the Middle East and subsequent rise in energy prices are proving to be more prolonged. German economic advisers to Chancellor Merz cut their 2026 German GDP forecast to 0.5% from a November estimate of 0.9%. Swaps are discounting a 92% chance of a +25 bp rate hike by the ECB at the next policy meeting on June 11. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) on Wednesday rose by +0.14%. The yen slid to a 3.5-week low against the dollar on Wednesday after Japan's April PPI service prices rose less than expected, a dovish factor for BOJ policy. However, losses in the yen were limited amid lower T-note yields and the -5% plunge in crude oil prices to a 5-week low, which benefits the Japanese economy and the yen as Japan imports more than 90% of its energy. Also, the closer the yen falls to 160 per dollar, the greater the likelihood that Japanese authorities will intervene in forex markets to prop up the yen, as they have done several times recently when the yen fell below that level. Japan Apr PPI services prices eased to +3.0% y/y from +3.3% y/y in Mar, weaker than expectations of +3.3% y/y. The markets are discounting a +73% chance of a 25 bp BOJ rate hike at the next policy meeting on June 16. June COMEX gold (GCM26) on Wednesday closed down -53.90 (-1.20%), and July COMEX silver (SIN26) closed down -1.711 (-2.23%). Gold and silver prices sold off sharply on Wednesday, with gold falling to a 1.75-month low. Wednesday's stronger dollar weighed on metals prices. Also, Wednesday's hawkish central bank comments weighed on precious metals after ECB Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras said, "The likeliest outcome is an ECB interest rate hike in June." Silver prices were also pressured on Wednesday amid concerns about industrial metals demand, after German economic advisers to Chancellor Merz cut their 2026 German GDP forecast. Wednesday's -5% plunge in crude oil prices lowers inflation expectations and may prompt the world's central banks to pursue easier monetary policies, a bullish factor for metals. In addition, lower global bond yields on Wednesday were bullish for precious metals. Recent fund liquidation of precious metals is bearish for prices, as long holdings in gold ETFs fell to a 5.25-month low on March 31 after climbing to a 3.5-year high on February 27. Also, long holdings in silver ETFs fell to a 9.25-month low on May 5 after rising to a 3.5-year high on December 23. Strong central bank demand for gold is supportive of gold prices, following news that bullion held in China's PBOC reserves rose by +260,000 ounces to 74.64 million troy ounces in April, the largest monthly increase in a year and the eighteenth consecutive month the PBOC has boosted its gold reserves.On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here. More news from Barchart - This Stock’s Next Move Could Be a ‘Silver’ Lining For Commodity Bulls - If You’re Still Buying Gold ETFs to Protect Against Inflation, Stop - Is Gold Inexpensive at $4,550 per Ounce? The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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    The dollar index (DXY00) on Wednesday rose by +0.03%. The dollar recovered from early losses on Wednesday and posted modest gains on conflicting signals about prospects for a US-Iran deal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian television said it obtained an unoff

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A Reuters poll of economists conducted July 7-16 shows that most Gulf Cooperation Council economies are now projected to contract more sharply in the current year than estimated three months earlier, with median forecasts indicating declines of 8.1% for Kuwait and Qatar, 5.

1% for Bahrain, and 0.5% for the UAE. Saudi Arabia and Oman remain the only GCC economies expected to expand. The poll links the revisions to reduced export volumes through the Strait of Hormuz, higher freight costs, and weaker investor sentiment, even as oil prices have risen.

Location: Arak
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The head of the UN’s nuclear agency yesterday signaled that Iranian nuclear enrichment sites would be visited by his inspectors, a key component in the interim deal between the US and Iran to reach an end to their war. The comment by International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director-General Rafael Grossi was the firmest yet from the agency, which is viewed as key in determining the status of Iran’s nuclear stockpile.

Since Israel launched a 12-day war on Iran last year, the IAEA has been blocked by Tehran from visiting enrichment sites where the Islamic republic is believed to store enough highly enriched uranium to potentially build as many as 10 nuclear weapons.

Photo: AP Iran has said that its program is peaceful, although it would be the only country in the world to have uranium enriched up to 60 percent purity without a weapons program. The US and Iran offered contradictory remarks on Tuesday about whether those sites would be inspected.

“I can understand political statements, they are part of the reality, but the fundamental thing I would like to remind you and draw your attention to is that there has been a memorandum of understanding, signed by both presidents,” Grossi told journalists at a news conference at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant.

The accord “explicitly states that the nuclear activities that are going to be carried out with the regards of the nuclear material facilities will be supervised by the IAEA — in all letters,” he said. “Obviously, to do that, we have to inspect,” Grossi added.

BOOST: By operating the same advanced systems as the US military, Taiwan would be better positioned to share and integrate intelligence with partners, an expert said The first batch of MQ-9B SkyGuardian drones has arrived in Taiwan, and is being assembled and tested by drone manufacturer General Atomics and the military ahead of flight trials as part of the air force’s acquisition to bolster its aerial surveillance capabilities, a source said yesterday.

The air force allocated a budget of NT$21.7 billion (US$687 million) from 2022 to 2029 to procure four MQ-9B uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs) manufactured by General Atomics along with associated equipment such as ground control stations. The US has agreed to deliver the four MQ-9Bs to Taiwan in two batches this year and next ‘BRAZEN’: The holiday did not stop China from activities that infringe on Taiwan’s maritime jurisdiction, but the CGA is ready to defend the nation, Kuan Bi-ling said Beijing is intensifying maritime pressure on Taiwan, but the nation will never yield, Ocean Affairs Council Deputy Minister Sung Chen-en (宋承恩) said.

The Coast Guard Administration (CGA) has adopted a “shadowing and monitoring” approach to avoid falling into a Chinese trap to escalate tensions and deepen the conflict, Sung said in an interview published yesterday in the Chinese-language Liberty Times (the Taipei Times’ sister newspaper).

China Coast Guard formations patrolling waters east of Taiwan, as well as official Chinese vessels entering areas around Itu Aba Island (Taiping Island, 太平島) and Pratas Islands (Dongsha Islands, 東沙群島) show Beijing’s attempts to significantly step up Taiwanese firms’ China investments have dwindled to less than 1 percent of their total foreign investments, putting China-based investments on track for a record low this year, Ministry of Economic Affairs data showed.

Taiwan’s investments abroad in the first five months of this year reached US$35.92 billion, Department of Investment Review data showed. Investments outside China totaled US$35.61 billion, up 133.94 percent year-on-year, while investments in China totaled US$310.

3 million, down 32.3 percent and about 0.86 percent of the total, data showed. Major overseas projects included Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co’s (TSMC, 台積電) US$30 billion capital injection into an overseas subsidiary, VARYING OPINIONS: People with different political affiliations have different views on how bilateral ties with the US, Japan and China would affect Taiwan’s security Two-thirds of Taiwanese view closer US and Japan ties as beneficial to security, a survey by Taiwan’s top military think tank showed.

To gauge the Taiwanese public’s perceptions of how different external relationships affect security, the Institute for National Defense and Security Research commissioned a survey by National Chengchi University’s Election Study Center asking respondents whether closer relations with the US, Japan and China would strengthen or weaken Taiwan’s national security.

economicUnverifiedIranChina
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High oil prices drive a surge in Chinese electric vehicle sales, but charging networks lag behind The war in Iran has helped reshape the global electric vehicle market, giving Chinese automakers an opening across the developing world as fuel prices surge The war in Iran has helped reshape the global electric vehicle market, giving Chinese automakers an opening across the developing world as soaring fuel prices push drivers towards electric vehicles, even as charging infrastructure lags behind a wave of imports.

The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted shipping of about a fifth of the world’s crude oil and liquified natural gas, first hitting Asia — the main destination for the fuels — followed by Africa. This shock accelerated a trend that was already spreading across the developing world.

In April, global exports of Chinese EVs hit a record $9.4 billion, according to an analysis by think tank Ember of Chinese customs data. Shipments surged to countries such as Australia, Brazil and regions like Southeast Asia and East Africa. China exported about 435,000 passenger EVs and plug-in hybrids in May, more than double from a year earlier, according to the Chinese Association of Automobile Manufacturers.

As fuel costs rise, more drivers are switching to EVs to save money, while governments from Laos to Ethiopia are embracing electrification to curb oil imports and reduce costs of fuel subsidies. But faster EV adoption is outpacing the expansion of charging networks.

Governments and state-owned utilities in Africa are taking a leading role in building them — a model analysts say could help other emerging markets, like Asia, speed the shift away from fossil fuels. When a nation lacks sufficient charging infrastructure and EV fleet size, it is a “classic chicken-and-egg problem” regarding what comes first, said Paul Gong, head of UBS bank’s China automotive industry research.

“At that stage, government support for infrastructure could help accelerate adoption,” he said. Fuel shock drives EV use in Asia and Africa Across the developing world, drivers are looking beyond the gas pump. In Southeast Asia, imports of Chinese EVs have surged in Thailand, Laos and the Philippines.

In May, Laos banned the import of fuel-powered vehicles for the rest of 2026 to cut oil import costs and encourage the EV shift. Africa imported around 44,000 Chinese EVs in 2025, a 130% jump from the year before, according to Chinese Commerce Ministry data.

Across Asia and Africa, transport is one of the largest household expenses. Limited public transit, long commutes and a reliance on private vehicles make families vulnerable to volatile fuel prices. In South Africa, transportation accounts for nearly a fifth of household spending, according to a 2024 study by Stellenbosch University in South Africa's Western Cape province.

So, as fuel prices surge, global interest in EVs has been growing, said Mark Wakefield, with the consultancy AlixPartners. One in four new cars sold worldwide last year were electric, according to the International Energy Agency. Global electric car sales are expected to grow further in 2026 and reach 23 million, making up nearly 30% of all cars sold worldwide, according to the IEA’s latest EV outlook.

“In the next five years, we will accelerate (our) overseas expansion,” said Jerry Gan, CEO of Geely Auto, one of China's biggest automakers, at a company event in March as the auto group makes inroad into regions like Southeast Asia including selling EVs.

Chinese automakers supplied around 60% of electric cars sold globally, the IEA said. They have also been targeting Europe, Africa and Latin America. In Vietnam, automaker VinFast also logged stronger sales. Demand from Southeast Asia helped drive a 42% year-on-year increase in the company's January-March quarterly revenue.

On most mornings, Nguyen Thien Bao threads his VinFast electric motorbike through the jammed traffic of Vietnam’s capital Hanoi — ferrying passengers and deliveries. The EV bike has sharply cut his expenses as fuel prices rise. “Before, so much of my income went into fuel,” he said.

“Now, I can actually save some money.” Charging stations aren't keeping up But while EV imports are booming, charging infrastructure is still lagging even as installations have accelerated. Thailand, for instance, has around 4,600 public charging locations to serve more than 424,000 battery EVs and plug-in hybrids, according to the Electric Vehicle Association of Thailand — around one for every 92 vehicles.

The country currently has roughly 12,000 public chargers, the IEA said. Chitsanupong Nuamnorm's solution is to keep his gasoline-fueled Mazda 2 for weekend trips, although the Chinese-made MG4 EV he bought on Feb. 27 — the day before the Iran war began — is saving him a lot of money.

Yutthana Samranwong, a 54-year-old driver in Thailand’s northern Phitsanulok province, says booking online for public charging ports to keep his MG4 EV running is a gamble. “It's a bit of a headache,” said Samranwong, who sometimes works with the Grab ride-hailing and delivery service.

In Bangkok, strained charging networks are prompting some drivers to consider returning to fuel-powered cars. In Malaysia, public fast chargers were up more than 70% in 2025, according to the IEA, after the government rolled out incentives to including a tax break for operators of charging points that meet certain investment criteria.

Indonesia has more than 4,500 public charging stations set up the state-owned power utility PLN, the IEA said. Ethiopia, which has banned non-EV imports, had only around a dozen charging stations as of mid-2025, and the government estimates it needs more than 1,170 stations to meet rising demand.

In the capital Addis Ababa, 40 stations are under construction, according to the state electricity utility. “In developing markets, affordability can accelerate the shift, but the pace of adoption will still depend heavily on infrastructure, power reliability and use case,” said Chris Liu, with the technology research and advisory group Omdia.

State utilities take the wheel to build charging stations In Indonesia, more than 4,500 public chargers have been deployed by its state-owned power utility PLN, the IEA said. African countries also are increasingly turning to state-owned utilities to build EV charging networks, betting public investment can solve one of the biggest obstacles to electric vehicle adoption.

“Utilities are recognizing that electric mobility will become a meaningful source of future electricity demand,” said Ndia Magadagela, co-founder and CEO of Everlectric, a South African commercial EV leasing company. There are around 2,000 public EV charging stations in Africa, with South Africa accounting for the largest share.

State-controlled utility Kenya Power plans to build 44 charging stations within the next year. But building networks of charging stations is difficult in developing markets, according to Omidia's Liu, who said grid connections and maintenance are key issues.

While BYD, for example, is expanding its ultrafast EV charging network in places like Europe, large Chinese automakers typically may have relatively little incentive to build networks outside China, he said. State-owned utilities, therefore, can play a larger role in this, according to Liu, since they are closely tied to a country’s grid planning, electricity pricing and distribution capacity.

“You need charging infrastructure to support an even larger fleet size,” said Gong, the auto analyst from UBS. ___ Olingo reported from Nairobi, Kenya, and Delgado reported from Bangkok. Associated Press writer Aniruddha Ghosal contributed to this report.

___ The Associated Press’ climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. The AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP’s standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at AP.

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