Summary

Escobar: The Calm Before The Showdown Authored by Pepe Escobar via LewRockwell.com, The only art that the Prince must totally master it's the art of war - Machiavelli The Supreme Warrior Wins Without Fighting -Sun Tzu This was supposed to be the calm before the storm. Where the Epstein Syndicate would schmooze the Global South gathered in New York for the - comatose - UN General Assembly and seduce them with assorted "gifts", wooing them away from the impending Great Debacle and deflecting attention from the breathtaking speed of the collapse of Pax Americana. Cut to Wednesday, when we have Day One of the UN General Assembly Debate, with Neo-Crassus/Neo-Caligula/Goldfinger/Psycho Toddler supposed to deliver a speech. On the same day, he meets with the Gulf petro-sheiks for what could become some sort of suicidal pact. And then on Friday, Xi Dada in person comes to the U.S. on an official state visit. (Invisible) sparks are guaranteed to fly. All that would guarantee that the nearly inevitable New Demented Offensive on Iran and the Axis of Resistance might be postponed for a few days. But then hysteria re-reigned all over again, as panicked imperial stakeholders were faced with some startling facts on the ground, from zero Saudi oil exports and to "burn, baby burn" at Riyadh airport. Cue to the thundering sound of scurrying bling bling cockroaches. They seem to realize that hitting Iran again, now, is beyond dangerous, as the escalation ladder will go totally out of control - complete with Tehran finishing off the scared-to-death petro-sheikhs. So the cockroaches did find out, the hard way, that whatever happens Iran is bound to become the oil hegemon of the Persian Gulf. Cue to Pakistan and Turkiye - the other two members of the dodgy as hell Mecca Defense Alliance - freaking out in tandem, promising to defend Saudi Arabia even physically. For context, cut to Ansarallah spokesman Mohammad Al-Bukhaiti: "By God, if Turkey or Pakistan get involved, we will strike them with an iron fist. And just as we are disciplining Saudi Arabia today, we will discipline them as well." That was the polite advice from the elder al-Bukhaiti. The younger, Hussain, a journalist, was way more heavy metal: if Pakistan attacks Yemen, Yemen will not allow any Pakistani commercial ship to pass through the Red Sea; will launch a direct attack on Pakistan; and will consider Pakistan a Zionist partner. How the House of Saud is going down It's now Escalation Ladder A-Go-Go. The Energy Shock'n Awe is at hand. All buffers are gone; the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR); the Saudi East-West pipeline (for at least a month, maybe more); and China's methodical, hefty cut on oil imports. What's left is the UAE's Fujairah - moving only 2 million barrels a day. But if the U.S. attacks the Axis of Resistance, that will also be gone in a flash. Saudi Arabia cannot export oil and/or gas. So there's only one way out to Clumsy Lone Decider MbS; to surrender. Accept Yemen's terms. And expect the bill to include the 3 southern provinces stolen by the Brits and given to the Saudis in 1934. No surrender means the very slim possibility of the House of Saud surviving at all. Alastair Crooke, in fine form, nailed it to perfection. The Ansarallah/Yemeni Armed Forces lightning-fast campaign had been planned for as long as 7 years. Sana'a takes a very long view. This represents total Yemen ownership of the process; but with an outcome completely aligned with Tehran. There's a stunning parallel with Afghanistan 5 years ago - a story I followed in detail. The then Ghani puppet government collapsed in only 10 days because of patient Pashtun tribal interconnection conducted under the aegis of Gen. Soleimani. Now it's the same process, involving tribal Arabian leaders. It's an easy sell. The mongrel "Saudi" state was built around an ultra-sectarian Wahhabi nucleus, a bunch of illiterate camel-herding Bedouins, with a single family monopolizing the money, political power and all decisions. Many of roughly 100 tribes will have no trouble to become part of a process of folding the Kingdom into what could be called the Iran-Ansarallah compound. They will take back their oil; Arabia then will no longer be reduced to an American replacement of Persian power; and that will be the end of the free lunch for U.S. oil companies. China cannot but approve this vision. The petro-sheiks have chosen their table Sana'a did send a clear message to the U.S. via Oman. Yemen would only attack Saudi shipping - and not American or international shipping. That stands as long as Washington does not attack Yemen. Yet if that happens, Yemen obliterates the American base in Djibouti, essential for surveillance of the whole Horn of Africa. The key question now is whether the U.S. - and the Mecca pact - really dumped Saudi Arabia. Or if this is just a realignment fog before a concerted attack - GCC included - on Ansarallah. If that happens, Tehran has made it crystal clear it will strike U.S. military and commercial assets all across the Gulf, especially in the UAE and Saudi, and all the way to Iraq. Major General Mohsen Rezaee, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council in Iran, and Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's personal representative, provided the context with a single sentence: "We invited them [GCC nations] to the Salalah meeting [in Oman]...and they reciprocated with a secret meeting in Germany with the U.S. Central Command and Israel." It's all here. Iran invited the GCC petro-sheiks to a common regional table. The GCC instead chose the Washington/Tel Aviv table. Rezaee has also outlined how Iran upgraded supersonic missiles from Mach 6 to Mach 10; expanded electronic warfare and air defenses; and is now able to hit U.S. vessels anywhere in the - distant - Indian Ocean. Then there's that ship-targeting missile that splits into 80 projectiles tested - successfully - on a U.S. aircraft carrier. The Pentagon is mum on the subject. Rezaee, in more ways than one, has gently advised the U.S. Navy to get out of Dodge - as in the Indian Ocean - before sparks fly again. Cue once again to the young al-Bukhaiti: "A major escalation by Saudi Arabia is expected in the coming day or days... It will be met with a surprise retaliatory response that will make Saudi Arabia and its allies forget that they lost Mocha and Bab al-Mandab." So the Epstein Syndicate may have planned for a solo op on Yemen, just to find out that Iran and Yemen come as a package. Respect Iran's terms. Or else. Tehran conveyed its new terms to the U.S. through Qatar, even as Rezaee continues to define "the respected Pakistani government" as a steady consultation partner. The terms include the release of frozen assets and the end of the Trump naval blockade. Rezaee said there are 7 conditions, but he disclosed only 6. The list did not include "removal of economic sanctions". The public first item is "an end to the war on all fronts." That is exactly what was written at the start of the dead cat MoU. The June memorandum of understanding already contained crude-export waivers and a no-new-sanctions clause. Then there's the Strait of Hormuz reciprocation. That is part of Tehran's bargaining structure. Rezaee said Iran is "a short step" from announcing a Hormuz management deal with Oman that may need regional endorsement. A Tasnim-sourced description calls the arrangement "a step towards Iran exercising sovereignty over the Strait". In parallel, Foreign Minister Araghchi told his counterpart and friend Wang Yi in Beijing that Iran "has reached a plan with Oman to open the Strait." Then Ghalibaf repeated on Sunday that the Strait of Hormuz stays closed until Iran's conditions are met. Washington's answer, on Sunday, was demented rhetoric - as usual. Neo-Crassus/Psycho Toddler told Fox News he is in "deciding mode". And then he came up with an intergallactic howler: he's deciding "if and when do I blow the entire nation up". No comments necessary. He has essentially three options. 1. Renewed strikes. 2. Let Iran "rot" economically (that's the plan for now). 3. A deal. In an access of common sense, he also said he would "probably be open" to meeting President Pezeshkian at the UN General Assembly. Iran's Armed Forces, for their part, claimed they have intel that Washington has decided "with the green light from certain regional countries" to resume action and threatened "continuous, effective and painful strikes." When it comes to the Big Picture, Pakistan insisted there is no military response under discussion regarding Yemen. Türkiye "does not want to enter the fray". Still, Pakistan's military spokesman has pledged to go "to any extent", and the Foreign Office confirmed "some deployments" under the Mecca Defense Alliance. Insiders in Islamabad swear this is only for show: Pakistan cannot afford to be dragged into a war against Ansarallah. The heart of the matter is that the Epstein Syndicate simply cannot afford not (italics mine) to make a move. Consider the dire circumstances: they already connot control currency collapse, food supply chain elimination and widespread lack of oil/diesel. They need massive diversionist tactics. Meanwhile, Yemen's revolutionary surge accelerates the timetable to the showdown. While Iran concentrates on ensuring a definitive neo-Crassus/Goldfinger/Psycho toddler mid-term debacle, in tandem with honing its new offensive doctrine: as in being ready to preemptively strike at any sign of U.S. rumblings. It's nearly impossible to draw reason out of an illogical geopolitical universe where nothing matters and the Hegemon is totally out of control. Yet we persist. We are all riders on the (coming) storm. Pepe Escobar is an independent geopolitical analyst and author. His latest book is Raging Twenties. He's been politically canceled from Facebook and Twitter. Follow him on Telegram. We publish a variety of perspectives. Nothing written here is to be construed as representing the views of ZeroHedge. Tyler Durden Thu, 09/24/2026 - 05:00