Morgan Stanley: Taiwan’s 11-day ‘LNG cliff’ threatens global chip supply Investing.com – Goldman Sachs has lowered its near-term targets for Japan’s benchmark stock index, citing rising geopolitical risks and the impact of higher oil prices on the global economy. The bank cut its three month and six month targets for the TOPIX index to 3,900 and 4,100, respectively, from earlier projections of 4,200 and 4,400. Its 12 month target remains unchanged at 4,300, suggesting analysts still expect longer term gains once current uncertainties ease. The downgrade reflects growing concerns about disruptions to global energy supplies following the escalation of tensions in the Middle East and the risk of prolonged constraints in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route for oil exports. Goldman’s commodities team now assumes around 21 days of reduced oil exports through the strait, compared with a previous estimate of about 10 days. Higher oil prices could weigh on Japan’s economy, which relies heavily on imported energy. Goldman said it has reduced its earnings outlook for TOPIX companies to account for the impact of rising energy costs and slower economic growth. The bank trimmed its fiscal 2026 earnings growth estimate for the index and also lowered its projections for Japan’s economic expansion. Economists now expect real GDP growth to be modestly weaker than previously anticipated as elevated oil prices raise input costs for companies and pressure household spending. Still, Goldman noted that previous geopolitical oil shocks suggest much of the risk may already be priced into markets. Historically, major oil supply disruptions have caused significant declines in equity markets, but the recent pullback in Japanese stocks has been more limited so far. Market performance has also been uneven across sectors. Energy and shipping stocks have been among the strongest performers during the recent volatility, benefiting from higher oil prices and freight rates, while sectors linked to China demand, financials and some technology segments have lagged. Despite the near term caution, Goldman maintained that the longer term outlook for Japanese equities remains constructive, with structural reforms, corporate governance improvements and shareholder returns continuing to support valuations.
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