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strikeApr 10, 2026

Historic Vance-Ghalibaf talks must bridge deep mistrust

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Historic Vance-Ghalibaf talks must bridge deep distrust If and when a photograph is taken of US Vice President JD Vance standing next to Iran's Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf in Islamabad this weekend, it will make history. That moment would mark the highest-level face-to-face talks between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America since the 1979 Islamic Revolution shattered their strong strategic bond and cast a long shadow which still darkens relations to this day. The two men may not smile. They may not even shake hands. It would not make this troubled relationship any more easy, any less hostile. But it would send a signal that both sides want to try to end a war sending shocks worldwide, avoid an even riskier escalation, and turn to diplomacy to do a deal. There's zero chance though of President Trump's optimistic prediction of a "peace deal" within this shaky two-week ceasefire; its terms were contested and broken since the moment it was announced earlier this week. Even until the eleventh hour, Iranians kept everyone guessing over whether they would still show up while Israel was insisting there would be no ceasefire in Lebanon. But if serious and sustained talks make a start, it would also mark the most significant push since Trump pulled out of the previous landmark nuclear deal in 2018, during his first term. He dismissed what was widely seen as the foreign policy highlight of the Obama administration as the "worst deal in history". Those talks, in endless rounds stretching over nearly 18 months of breakthroughs and breakdowns, were the last high-level meetings between the US's then secretary of state John Kerry and Iran's then foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif. Efforts since then, including during President Biden's term, made little headway. "The dispatch of more senior officials and high stakes of failure for all sides could open possibilities that weren't there before," assesses Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group, who has followed all the twists and turns over many years. But, he cautions, this time is still "exponentially harder". The gaps between the two sides remain very wide; the distrust runs very deep. That well is especially vast for Tehran after their last two series of negotiations, in June 2025 and February this year, were suddenly whacked by the opening salvos of an Israeli-American war. Contrasting styles And, when they do talk, their negotiating styles are poles apart. President Trump boasts he has the best dealmakers in his special envoy Steve Witkoff, a former property developer, and his son-in-law Jared Kushner, his go-to person during his first term, when the Abraham Accords normalised relations between Israel and a few Arab states while sidelining the Palestinians. But Iran, which now views these envoys as too close to Israel, insisted on raising the level of engagement, specifically to the Vice President JD Vance. Not only does he hold a formal position within the US administration, rather than being a friend or family member, he is also seen as the strongest sceptic of this military campaign in Trump's team. Iran's approach has also imposed limitations, especially in its insistence that the negotiations mainly be conducted indirectly, through Oman, their trusted mediator. In Geneva in February, behind high walls and away from the world's cameras, some direct conversations did take place in the midst of the indirect exchanges. But Iranian hardliners, deeply distrustful of this track, were said to have tied the hands of negotiators who also wanted to avoid any risk of hostile or humiliating exchanges. Witkoff's signature style had been to usually arrive on his own. Diplomatic sources involved in this process say he often didn't even take notes - which only heightened Iranian suspicion and meant the talks often went in circles. Then Kushner was added to his team. The contrast with the negotiations a decade ago couldn't be starker – the American and Iranian delegations included strong contingents of experienced diplomats and leading physicists. They were also bolstered by senior European diplomats as well as foreign ministers from the other four permanent members of the UN Security Council - the UK, France, China and Russia. In the last rounds in February this year, progress is said to have been made when the two delegations were assisted by the technical expertise of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) head Rafael Grossi, and seasoned mediators from other countries. They were said to have narrowed some but not all of the gaps, at least on the nuclear file, where Iran offered new concessions including the dilution of its highly enriched uranium. Then war was unleashed again. Now these hostilities have shifted the security calculus – for all sides. Even before this conflict, hardline voices within Iran's security establishment were arguing for the development of a nuclear bomb. Iran will now insist on keeping its arsenal of ballistic missiles for self-defence, and holding sway over the Strait of Hormuz. It gives Tehran major leverage and a desperately needed economic lifeline. But most Gulf states, who had opposed the 2015 nuclear deal before later reaching a cautious rapprochement with their neighbour, are now demanding that the missiles which slammed into their countries need to be on the negotiating table. Israel, and in particular Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, is certain to be on the phone, or rushing to the White House, to ensure deep-seated worries about Iran's threats are addressed. 'Heroic flexibility' There's an echo of another historic time. Thirteen years ago, Iran's late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei made a reluctant decision to allow his negotiators to intensify nuclear talks with America to try to reach a deal. It was called "heroic flexibility". Tehran's top cleric didn't trust the country he scorned as "the Great Satan". But Iran's newly elected reformist president, Hassan Rouhani, convinced him that their dire economic straits gave them no other choice but to do everything they could to lift crippling international sanctions. Now, his son Mojtaba Khamenei - who rose to power after his father's assassination in the early hours of this war - has given the go-ahead for his negotiators to meet American envoys in Islamabad. But he was injured in that attack and the extent of his involvement, and authority, is far from clear. The hardliners, most of all the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards, are now calling the shots. Iran's economy is mired in a much deeper crisis. And it's facing more significant dissent at home after January's nation-wide protests were crushed with many thousands of casualties. A nation shaken by this grievous war now struggles to hold onto hope for economic and social change, and for some, fundamental change. Trump insists these six weeks of war achieved "regime change" and he describes Iran's new leaders as "less radical, much more reasonable". The moment of truth could be approaching – for all sides. And there's another sobering thought. Thirteen years ago, as talks got under way, their statements spoke of the two sides being "far apart". Iran demanded that the US recognise its "right" to enrich uranium – which the US rejected, voicing its suspicion that the Islamic Republic was seeking a nuclear weapon. For now, the US seems to be saying that right would be recognised - as long as there's no enrichment in Iran. History may not repeat itself, but it does rhyme.

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The White House is now apparently using Russian tactics to convince the American public that the war in Iran is not, in fact, a war. When asked by reporters at the White House on Thursday whether the most intense sustained air campaign by American forces since the invasion of Iraq would be over by the midterms, Vice President JD Vance replied: “I wouldn’t call it a war.

” Vladimir Putin said much the same thing when he invaded Ukraine. Russia was not fighting a war either, the Kremlin insisted; it was merely conducting a “special military operation.” If that comparison strikes you as shocking, consider the contours of the two conflicts.

A vastly more powerful military launched a punishing offensive against a smaller, less well-equipped adversary, inflicted enormous damage without achieving a decisive resolution, and then found itself drawn into a longer, grinding conflict with no clear way out.

The motivations behind the wars may be different, and they’re playing out in different theaters, but the pattern is eerily similar. Now, so too is the attempt by those in power to control how the public understands, and even what it is allowed to call, the obvious war unfolding in front of them.

If This Isn’t a War, What Is? Let us take a moment to assess what exactly has happened since February 28, when the U.S. launched Operation Epic Fury. The opening U.S.-Israeli attack killed Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, along with the commander of the Revolutionary Guard, the defense minister and various other senior officials.

According to the U.S. military’s own accounting, the first 38 days of major combat operations involved more than 10,200 sorties and 13,500 strikes. U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) says those attacks damaged or destroyed more than 85 percent of Iran’s ballistic missile, drone and naval defense industrial base, while knocking out 82 percent of its air-defense missile systems.

The U.S. sent carrier strike groups and warships into the region, later imposing a military blockade on Iranian ports. Meanwhile, American and allied air defenses intercepted more than 6,000 Iranian attack drones and 1,500 ballistic missiles fired at U.

S. forces, Israel and American partners across the Middle East. More than 50,000 U.S. service members remain deployed across the region. The fighting has killed 18 U.S. service members and at least 8,000 people across Iran, Lebanon, Israel and the Gulf states.

More than 750 U.S. service members have been wounded. Last month, during a lull in the fighting, the U.S. Treasury unveiled a sanctions package likened to an “economic D-day” that is designed to make Iran an “economic outcast” and cut the adversary off from all available forms of economic support.

In the announcement, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent openly declared that Iran had been “at war against America” for 47 years. This week, the shooting resumed; the U.S. hit targets in and around the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran blasted missiles at targets in Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan and Iraq.

All this from an administration that almost exactly a year ago launched a rapid rebrand of the Defense Department into the “Department of War”. No boots on the ground, though, so it’s not a war, right? Tell It Kind of Like It Is Even the very best snake-oil salesman would have a hard time convincing people that the war in Iran isn’t a war.

So why is JD Vance even trying? Well, if there’s one thing politicians understand better than anyone, it’s the importance of language and rhetoric. Words have immense power; a well-written speech can unite millions of people, and a catchy slogan like Make America Great Again can come to represent an entire political philosophy.

But war is a pesky word. For one, it implies there will eventually be a winner and a loser. It also brings with it certain expectations—and some very difficult questions. What is the objective? How many people will die? When will it end? And, perhaps most dangerously of all: was it worth it?

Those are not questions the White House wants Americans to be asking. Trump built a substantial part of his political identity around ending, rather than beginning, America’s “endless wars.” When Washington and Tehran signed a memorandum of understanding in June, the White House presented it as proof that Trump’s America First approach could deliver peace without another prolonged Middle Eastern conflict.

Then the hostilities started again. Earlier this week, Trump shared a Truth Social graphic declaring that “Hormuz Oil Volumes are BACK!”, saying 18 million barrels a day were once again leaving the Strait, compared with 20 million before the war. No independent commodity tracking company or energy analyst appeared to verify Trump’s claims.

But most Americans won’t be checking tanker-tracking dashboards. What they’ll care about is the cold, hard fact that diesel hit a new record price this morning, soaring to an average of $5.85 a gallon for the first time ever. Gasoline is $4.15 a gallon on average, compared with $3.

20 at this time last year, according to AAA. The numbers on the sign at the gas station and the price on the grocery receipt aren’t affected by Trump’s tall tales, but they’ll surely affect how Americans vote at the midterms. When viewed in this light, Vance’s attempt to discourage reporters from “call[ing] it a war” begins to make sense.

A war is something that we want to end. It tends to result in a winner and a loser. And its worth is up for debate at all times. A different kind of engagement that doesn’t quite meet the threshold of war—say, a special military operation—is not exposed to the same kind of scrutiny.

Vance effectively made that case himself. “When you ask, ‘When will this end?’ You’re asking me a question like, ‘When will the Iranians stop shooting at ships?’” he said. By that logic, there is no American war—only recurring Iranian provocations that require American military responses.

That’s exactly the logic applied by Putin to Ukraine and supposed expansion of NATO. Putting the Toothpaste Back in the Tube U.S. lawmakers have repeatedly invoked the War Powers Resolution to challenge Trump’s authority to keep fighting Iran without specific congressional authorization.

The law generally gives a president 60 days after U.S. forces enter “hostilities” to secure congressional approval or bring those hostilities to an end. That makes the pauses in fighting hugely important. When the original 60-day deadline arrived in May, Trump told Congress that the temporary ceasefire reached in April meant the hostilities that began on February 28 had ended.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth argued that the War Powers clock could “pause, or stop” when the shooting did. That position is disputed by legal experts, but its political utility is obvious. If every new outbreak of fighting can be treated as a separate skirmish, rather than part of one continuous war, the administration can argue that a fresh 60-day clock starts each time.

Vance’s insistence that there is no continuing “war” fits neatly for an administration that has already tried to divide six months of conflict into separate periods of hostilities, interrupted by ceasefires and pauses. This brings us back to Moscow.

The Kremlin’s own linguistic trick was also about making one sprawling war sound smaller, more limited and more manageable than it really was. From the very beginning of the invasion, Putin described the war as a special military operation. Only after two years of grinding warfare did Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov openly declare Russia to be in a “state of war”—and even then, he said the transformation had occurred because the “collective West” had joined the fight against Russia.

Vance is playing a similar game, but in reverse. Only now—with soaring fuel prices, mounting casualties, concerns over the military’s munitions stockpiles, and midterm elections on the horizon—is the conflict no longer a war. You can’t put the genie back in the bottle, though, and the American people aren’t stupid.

Vance and the White House may discover in November that voters are perfectly capable of recognizing a war, even when the vice president doesn’t want to call it one.

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