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strikeSep 9, 2026

If You're Still Talking About Central Bank Independence, You Are Behind The Curve

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If You're Still Talking About Central Bank Independence, You Are Behind The Curve By Michael Every of Rabobank The US just hit five more Iranian oil tankers, citing attempted strikes on one of its warships, and warned more will be sunk if Iran tries it again. It also imposed more economic war via aviation sanctions. The Saudis and Houthis are on the brink of new war after a series of strikes at Saudi cities, followed by Riyadh’s reprisals and the threat of “consequences [the Houthis] cannot handle.” Qatar and the UAE both said the Gulf cannot rely on US alone for the region's security: but Russia can’t extend power there now; China can’t or doesn’t want to; Europe can’t and won’t – so that leaves Turkey and Israel, both eyeing the other suspiciously; and as France and Canada joined the UK in issuing trade sanctions on Israeli settlements, the EU reportedly wants to pursue closer Israel ties on air defence and space. Oil trades above $100, and notably Shanghai oil is now trading higher than Brent having been vastly lower in the early stages of the Iran War. Crack spreads remain worryingly high all over. Refined product stocks remain worryingly low. Shanghai crude $110: contract record high pic.twitter.com/gWCza5BD2M — zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 9, 2026 Trump spoke to Putin as Hungary expelled 10 Russian diplomats to Moscow’s threats of a harsh response. Iceland summoned the US ambassador over Trump’s Stars and Stripes map Truth post showing the US flag covering Canada, Mexico, Greenland, and Iceland. Israel shut down the UK consulate in Jerusalem. The British Army has reportedly been ordered to save money by using reservists less, and flights were grounded across the UK due to a tech issue – showing the impact ‘grey zone’ attacks can have. The Hong Kong press notes China is boosting Pakistani drone defences ‘as India tensions simmer’, and ‘How Japan is digging in to deter –and withstand– a conflict over Taiwan.’ All the kind of things to rattle the long end of government bond yield curves. Maritime nations are warning that global shipping rules are collapsing, which could take much global trade with it as some worry if there is enough bunker fuel for the ships to use. While the Suez Canal is seeing more passages as tankers try to avoid Hormuz, the Panama Canal is warning of deeper transit cuts as the El Nino drought threat intensifies. Further north, and next to Europe, Russia is betting on a $400bn Arctic Transport Corridor but can’t fund it without China. Brussels warned China it ‘must buy more’ from the EU to avoid a trade war: but what exactly? The old joke vs. the US was ‘Will you sell us aircraft carriers?’ China now builds its own faster. Europe has few resources China needs or goods it doesn’t make itself. Even EU luxury brands are less popular as Beijing prioritises domestic brands. Perhaps the EU could sell China more tech from ASML, to a new trans-Atlantic storm? Meanwhile, EU industry claims it faces 300,000 job cuts as China “colonises” its supply chains, and European “wealth” is threatened by the decline of its carmakers, with a deleterious effect on the steel, aluminium, glass, and chemical sectors needed for rearmament. Again, not much fun for the long end of bond markets if they think about it. Canadian counter tariffs on the US went into effect; the US is to ban Canadian dairy and some alcohol and motor vehicles from September 29, as well as Canadian firms from government contracts in response. The Globe and Mail opines, ‘With this trade war, Canada faces its Singapore moment’. The National Post says, ‘Canadians support hard line against US, but don't want to pay for it’, as “When asked if they would pay an extra C$500 per year to hold the line in the current trade war, 56% called this ‘unacceptable’.” Becoming Singapore implies paying vastly more than C$500 per year. US Secretary of State Rubio is seeking more economic and security ties in Latin America, which has an FTA with the EU, which doesn’t offer the same security ties. He’s in Colombia to ‘clarify’ its China links and to sign a minerals deal, as Nicaragua hands a gold concession to a sister firm of US-sanctioned Chinese miner. In AI, there are more reports about experts fearing the technology is out of control, as markets worry about the same issue from a different standpoint. The US also accused Chinese AI firms of “malicious” copying of AI technology – which can be resisted how if so, a digital Iron Curtain? Despite fears of US-South Korean tensions, as opposed to alignment on rapprochement with North Korea, KHNP and the US Westinghouse are to align the two nations nuclear supply chains for eight new US reactors. That is a small step in the right direction regarding AI power demands. In politics, anti-AfD protests swept parts of Germany as the establishment fears that Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania may fall to the populists on 20 September. That’s as Politico says, ‘Merz has no good answers as the far right targets his downfall.’ Nothing for the bond market to worry about there, right? In markets, there is some speculation the BOJ might even think about a 50bps hike. If so, it would be the first such move since 1989, when it was still in a bubble. Appropriately, given the current geopolitical backdrop, it was also before the3 first Cold War had fully ended and was a time when the US used national security arguments vs. its allies to achieve the likes of the Plaza Accord. Indeed, US Treasury Secretary Bessent stated: “I am the house now, so when we intervene with the Japanese Yen, I have a pretty good insight into what the Japanese, what the Bank of Japan is going to do, what Japanese policy makers are going to do. And you can bet against me if you want.” I repeat, if you are still talking about the independence of central banks, you are behind the curve; the world is now about the functional independence of countries within which central banks sit. Of course, as JPY rallies and shorter-dated JGB yields rise, the issue becomes when we might see Japanese holdings abroad repatriated, pushing FX down and yields higher in other markets. That might take some more economic statecraft, not “because markets”, from Bessent to handle. The RBA just saw Hauser give a hawkish speech, which has markets thinking of hikes this month and in November. Fortunately, that’s very much what the US Treasury would like to see – plus a lot more action on non-housing parts of the economy. ECB President Lagarde, who’s talked independently about economic statecraft yet done nothing, is to release her memoir in January. That’s odd given she will still be in office so can’t tell us anything interesting enough to justify reading it. Unless she has moved on to pontificate at Davos, as whispered. That would allow Macron to choose the replacement ECB representative before the French presidential election where the nationalist Le Pen is seen as favourite, a clear ‘rules’-based ringfencing of a ‘rules-based’ institution against at least one populist appointment. Yet when you see where the political winds are blowing, such action may not prove quite as reassuring for markets as the ‘sensible centrist’ optimists would try to sell it. On the other hand, China's tobacco monopoly played a key role in shoring up state-owned banks, which just raised $54bn in capital even as GDP is sluggish. Where there’s smoking, there’s fire, but is the new capital for bad loans, a bad sign for global growth, or new “not because markets” lending, a bad sign for global inflation? Today’s Chinese CPI data were in line at just 0.8% y-o-y headline, up from 0.5%, and slightly above expectations at 1.0% y-o-y core, while PPI was 3.8% y-o-y vs. 3.6% consensus and up from 3.5%. Let’s see how all of them trend with Shanghai oil over $100. Tyler Durden Wed, 09/09/2026 - 13:20

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  • Tyler DurdenBy Tyler Durden

    If You're Still Talking About Central Bank Independence, You Are Behind The Curve By Michael Every of Rabobank The US just hit five more Iranian oil tankers, citing attempted strikes on one of its warships, and warned more will be sunk if Iran tries it again. It als

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Iran strikes ships, expands no-go zone outside Strait of Hormuz TEHRAN — Iran said it attacked more than a dozen vessels trying to pass through the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, as it announced an expansion of a no-go zone outside the strategic waterway it has blockaded for months.

The fresh attacks and fighting with the United States sent oil prices above $100 per barrel again as Tehran chokes off the strait and Washington presses a counter-blockade of Iranian ports. Brent oil closed at $101.21. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said on Wednesday they attacked two US vessels, eight oil tankers, and 10 “non-compliant vessels” that were trying to pass through the route crucial for oil and gas trade, Iranian state media reported.

READ: Iran plans to announce new ‘exclusion zone’ near Strait of Hormuz The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) said “several” vessels in the Gulf of Oman and the Gulf were “subject to disabling fire as part of ongoing military activity in the region”.

The Gulf of Oman lies on the Indian Ocean side of the narrow Hormuz strait, a vital energy conduit that normally carries around a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas. Iran’s Guards also for the first time added parts of the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea to a new “prohibited zone” on Wednesday, saying exact coordinates will be announced later.

“If a vessel enters that area without coordination, it will be subject to our sanctions,” Guards spokesman Hossein Mohebi told state television. The Guards also said they struck a US military base in Jordan in response to US forces destroying five Iranian oil tankers a day earlier.

Jordan’s army shot down 18 missiles fired at the kingdom, it said. READ: 14 Filipino seafarers return home after Strait of Hormuz tanker attack Iran’s foreign ministry condemned the attack on its oil tankers as “an overt threat to regional and international peace and security,” saying the strikes “increase the dangers of tensions in the region”.

It said the targeting of US military facilities in the region was “self-defence”. The US military for its part had said it was responding to an Iranian attack targeting an American warship, the second such incident in less than a week. Long war? Iran’s Guards, the ideological arm of the military, said the war could be brought to an end if Washington met its conditions, which included demands on the wars in Lebanon and Yemen.

“It must… refrain from renewed threats, withdraw the Israeli regime’s army from Lebanon, end the blockade of Yemen, release $24 billion in Iran’s frozen assets and refrain from any interference in the country’s nuclear and missile capabilities,” Mohebi said, according to Fars news agency.

READ: Trump’s Iran strategy: Could this become a forever war? Donald Trump, an unpopular president eager to end an unpopular war, asserted Wednesday the conflict will conclude right after the mid-term US elections in November. Polls show his Republican Party could face a drubbing and lose control of one or both houses of Congress.

“I think the war will end immediately after the election” because Iran “can’t hold out any longer,” Trump told journalists, accusing Tehran of being “desperate to try and affect” the vote. However, the Wall Street Journal quoted US officials saying that Trump’s top advisers are privately warning that the war could drag on through the remaining two years of his term.

Nuclear referral As Washington tries to choke off Iran economically, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) board of governors on Wednesday voted to refer Iran to the UN Security Council over its nuclear “non-compliance”, in a diplomatic move that piles pressure on Tehran.

The resolution seen by AFP was adopted by a 23-3 vote with eight abstentions, they said. Russia, China and Niger voted against it. Iran’s representative to the UN nuclear watchdog said the resolution was passed under US pressure, saying it “has no basis and will not bring any results”.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu repeated his claim Iran was about to collapse. READ: Iran threatens greater force if US launches more attacks “The main task is to bring down the terror regime in Iran. We are very close to that,” he said Wednesday on a troop visit in southern Syria, where Israel has occupied what it calls a “security zone”.

Tanker strikes The latest round of US-Iran fighting was triggered after American forces destroyed five Iranian oil tankers Tuesday, with the US military saying it “directed the crews to abandon ship” before hitting the vessels. “Iran continues to try to hit US naval ships, and for every time they do that or try to do that, they’re going to lose tankers, and I think you’ll see that again today,” US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters Tuesday on a visit to Colombia.

Iran has asserted control of the Strait of Hormuz since US-Israeli strikes began the war in February, with traffic through the waterway virtually paralysed. Tehran requires vessels to obtain permission and pay transit fees before using the strait.

strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIranUNRussiaChina
1 source

TEHRAN, Sept 10 — Iran said it attacked more than a dozen vessels trying to pass through the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, as it announced an expansion of a no-go zone outside the strategic waterway it has blockaded for months. The fresh attacks and fighting with the United States sent oil prices above US$100 (RM407) per barrel again as Tehran chokes off the strait and Washington presses a counter-blockade of Iranian ports.

Brent oil closed at US$101.21. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said on Wednesday they attacked two US vessels, eight oil tankers, and 10 “non-compliant vessels” that were trying to pass through the route crucial for oil and gas trade, Iranian state media reported.

The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) said “several” vessels in the Gulf of Oman and the Gulf were “subject to disabling fire as part of ongoing military activity in the region”. The Gulf of Oman lies on the Indian Ocean side of the narrow Hormuz strait, a vital energy conduit that normally carries around a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas.

Iran’s Guards also for the first time added parts of the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea to a new “prohibited zone” on Wednesday, saying exact coordinates will be announced later. “If a vessel enters that area without coordination, it will be subject to our sanctions,” Guards spokesman Hossein Mohebi told state television.

The Guards also said they struck a US military base in Jordan in response to US forces destroying five Iranian oil tankers a day earlier. Jordan’s army shot down 18 missiles fired at the kingdom, it said. Iran’s foreign ministry condemned the attack on its oil tankers as “an overt threat to regional and international peace and security,” saying the strikes “increase the dangers of tensions in the region”.

It said the targeting of US military facilities in the region was “self-defence”. The US military for its part had said it was responding to an Iranian attack targeting an American warship, the second such incident in less than a week. Long war? Iran’s Guards, the ideological arm of the military, said the war could be brought to an end if Washington met its conditions, which included demands on the wars in Lebanon and Yemen.

“It must... refrain from renewed threats, withdraw the Israeli regime’s army from Lebanon, end the blockade of Yemen, release US$24 billion in Iran’s frozen assets and refrain from any interference in the country’s nuclear and missile capabilities,” Mohebi said, according to Fars news agency.

Donald Trump, an unpopular president eager to end an unpopular war, asserted Wednesday the conflict will conclude right after the mid-term US elections in November. Polls show his Republican Party could face a drubbing and lose control of one or both houses of Congress.

“I think the war will end immediately after the election” because Iran “can’t hold out any longer,” Trump told journalists, accusing Tehran of being “desperate to try and affect” the vote. However, the Wall Street Journal quoted US officials saying that Trump’s top advisers are privately warning that the war could drag on through the remaining two years of his term.

Nuclear referral As Washington tries to choke off Iran economically, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) board of governors on Wednesday voted to refer Iran to the UN Security Council over its nuclear “non-compliance”, in a diplomatic move that piles pressure on Tehran.

The resolution seen by AFP was adopted by a 23-3 vote with eight abstentions, they said. Russia, China and Niger voted against it. Iran’s representative to the UN nuclear watchdog said the resolution was passed under US pressure, saying it “has no basis and will not bring any results”.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu repeated his claim Iran was about to collapse. “The main task is to bring down the terror regime in Iran. We are very close to that,” he said Wednesday on a troop visit in southern Syria, where Israel has occupied what it calls a “security zone”.

Tanker strikes The latest round of US-Iran fighting was triggered after American forces destroyed five Iranian oil tankers Tuesday, with the US military saying it “directed the crews to abandon ship” before hitting the vessels. “Iran continues to try to hit US naval ships, and for every time they do that or try to do that, they’re going to lose tankers, and I think you’ll see that again today,” US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters Tuesday on a visit to Colombia.

Iran has asserted control of the Strait of Hormuz since US-Israeli strikes began the war in February, with traffic through the waterway virtually paralysed. Tehran requires vessels to obtain permission and pay transit fees before using the strait.

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NPR reporters are examining the uncertain status of U.S. military installations in the Middle East following reports that Iran retaliated against a U.S.-Israel conflict by disrupting shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and launching strikes on facilities in Qatar, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain.

The network will discuss the ongoing situation and potential future of regional troop deployments in an upcoming podcast episode.

Location: Strait of Hormuz
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Diplomats reported that the IAEA’s 35-nation Board of Governors has voted to refer Iran to the UN Security Council, marking the first such referral in two decades. This decision follows a prior resolution that found Iran in "non-compliance" with non-proliferation obligations, though the Security Council is expected to have limited capacity for enforcement due to the veto power of Russia and China.

While Iranian officials have previously threatened retaliation, their official mission to the IAEA attributed the resolution solely to US and Israeli aggression, characterizing US objectives as "delusional.

Location: Jerusalem