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strikeSep 7, 2026

Iran and Ukraine wars: Why ship fuel is running short, and why it matters

Summary

Iran and Ukraine wars: Why ship fuel is running short, and why it matters There’s less crude in the market, and refiners prefer to produce diesel. The result: Ships are running short of fuel. And that could impact global trade. The shipping industry, already heavily constrained by restrictions on transit through key waterways such as the Strait of Hormuz, faces another challenge stemming from the US-Israel war on Iran and Russia’s war on Ukraine: a shortage of fuel oil used by ships and power plants. The fuel used by ships powers the transport of large cargoes around the world. Any shortage of this fuel could drive up global freight costs, which could in turn affect consumers and manufacturers of goods and commodities. Recommended Storieslist of 3 items - list 1 of 3US envoys hold ‘substantive’ talks with Zelenskyy in first visit to Kyiv - list 2 of 3Iran touts military response as US maintains blockade, hits tankers - list 3 of 3Trump official says ‘there may not be a nuclear agreement’ with Iran Most ships and oil tankers mainly use heavy fuel oil (HFO), commonly known as bunker fuel, to power their engines. This fuel is produced when crude oil is refined. Other commonly used marine fuels include marine gas oil (used by smaller vessels), marine diesel oil (used in marine engines) and less polluting fuels like very low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO). Why is ship fuel running low and why does it matter? Here’s what we know: Why is ship fuel running low? According to analysts, the wars in West Asia and Europe, along with refiners opting to produce more profitable fuels, have contributed to the shortage. Middle East fuel oil exports were down by 45 percent year on year to an average of 447,000 barrels per day from March to August, data from energy trade analytics firm Kpler shows. Energy consultancy Energy Aspects told Reuters news agency that it expects the fuel oil market to face a deficit of 218,000 bpd in the third quarter. This is the first shortfall it has estimated since the third quarter of 2025, when it was a marginal 6,000 bpd. How have wars in West Asia and the Russia-Ukraine war impacted fuel oil? The US-Israel war on Iran has paralysed key maritime trade routes like the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20 percent of global oil and gas passed before the start of the war. Iran has also hit multiple oil facilities in the Gulf in retaliation against the US. Attacks by Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis on shipping in the Red Sea and around the strategic Bab al-Mandeb Strait, one of the world’s most important shipping routes, have also disrupted shipping and constrained supply routes. Besides the war on Iran, Russia’s ongoing war on Ukraine has also impacted oil supplies. Ukraine has in recent weeks bombed multiple major Russian refineries. Russia is the world’s second-largest exporter of crude oil. Ukrainian drone attacks have affected Russia’s refinery output, with its fuel oil exports in August hitting a record low 591,000 bpd, down from an average of over 860,000 bpd in 2025, according to Kpler data going back to 2017. The net result: less crude is being shipped out from key oil-producing regions, especially the Gulf and Russia. That has meant an overall shortage in supplies of crude. And oil companies aren’t prioritising fuel oil as their product of choice. What are refiners prioritising with the crude oil they’re getting? Petrol, diesel and jet fuel, which are also produced when crude oil is refined, have all been impacted. But products like diesel tend to help suppliers generate higher profits, and they prioritise it over products like fuel oil. According to Kpler, Nigeria’s 650,000-bpd Dangote refinery, for instance, has ramped up diesel, petrol and jet fuel exports, while its fuel oil exports have dropped. Market observer Sunil Reddy said in a post on X on Monday that one of the key reasons for a global ship-fuel shortage is “the extraordinary profitability of diesel”. “When diesel cracks [or] spreads become extremely high, refiners have a powerful incentive to squeeze as much diesel and [petrol] as possible out of every barrel. That changes what happens to the heavier part of crude,” he said. He explained that in the refining process, instead of “allowing more of that heavy [oil] residue to remain as fuel oil for ships, refiners will send it through secondary processing units and upgrade it into higher-value products such as diesel”. “So, extremely strong diesel margins effectively start pulling barrels away from the bunker-fuel market,” he said, adding that this would increase ship-fuel prices as well. Which regions will be most impacted? While a drop in ship fuel will have a large-scale impact on global shipping, Asia could be particularly affected because of its dependence on the Gulf. According to Kpler data, Singapore, the world’s largest bunker hub, imports more than half of the nearly one million bpd of fuel oil it consumes. A drop in fuel oil supplies has also led to a rise in the price of shipping fuels like VLSFO. In Singapore, the price of this fuel is up 76 percent since the war on Iran began to just less than $825 per metric tonne, or $130 a barrel, as of September 1, according to data from bunker price platform ZeroNorth. Besides Singapore, fuel oil stocks in Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp in the Netherlands and Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates are also about 30 percent below their three-year seasonal averages, according to Reuters. Market observer Reddy said on X: “The world economy is built on thousands of interdependent supply chains. One product depends on another country for raw materials, another for processing, another for machinery, another for energy.” “Without ships, globalisation breaks. When ship fuel becomes too scarce or too expensive, many things don’t just become more expensive,” he added. “At some point, some trade simply stops making economic sense.”

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  • Al Jazeera StaffBy Al Jazeera Staff

    Iran and Ukraine wars: Why ship fuel is running short, and why it matters There’s less crude in the market, and refiners prefer to produce diesel. The result: Ships are running short of fuel. And that could impact global trade. The shipping industry, already heavily constrained b

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"Strike our assets and you get struck," Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said after U.S. and Iranian strikes on shipping at the weekend that pushed oil prices up to six-week highs at one point on Monday. Also read: Iran's government to raises price of petrol as US applies economic pressure On Sunday, senior Iranian security official Mohsen Rezaei said Iran would announce plans for a new restricted zone in the Gulf in the coming days, and that it would soon approve maps of a new shipping corridor through the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran has throttled traffic through the strait, a vital global oil and gas supply route, since the war with the United States began with U.S. and Israeli strikes on February 28. Rezaei said the new restricted zone would begin from where a U.S. naval blockade of Iran starts and extend into areas of the Gulf.

Any ship entering the new zone would be added to an Iranian sanctions list, he said. "We will only commit to the Strait of Hormuz being open when they (the Americans) stop the sabotage, threats and attacks on Iran," Rezaei said. Underlining Iran's defiance, Qalibaf issued a new threat to respond to any U.

S. strikes, in what appeared to be a response to a warning by U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth that Iran's oil tanker fleet was "defenceless". "It's simple: the oil and gas production chain here is sprawling, accessible, and exposed. American oil and gas companies across these waters and facilities share that exposure," Qalibaf, who is Iran's top negotiator, wrote on X.

"Strike our assets and you get struck. We've already proven it. Ask the bases that are no longer viable," referring to Iranian attacks on U.S. military bases in the region throughout the conflict. IRAN AND U.S. EXCHANGE ATTACKS U.S. President Donald Trump has yet to achieve the aims he set out when he launched "Operation Epic Fury" in February: to end Iran's nuclear programme, halt its ability to attack its neighbours and create conditions for Iranians to topple their leadership.

Tehran's clerical rulers remain in power and aim to emerge from the war stronger than before, demanding the lifting of sanctions and hoping to collect fees from ships that use the strait, which carried a fifth of global oil and gas shipments before the war.

After a pause in military action for much of August, tit-for-tat strikes have resumed following the unravelling of an interim ceasefire deal that was reached in June, and there has been little progress on getting the peace process back on track. U.S.

forces struck three Iranian oil tankers on Saturday, U.S. Central Command said, including one off Kharg Island, Iran's key oil export hub, following attacks by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on U.S. warships in the region. Tehran has shown it retains the capability to attack U.

S. interests in neighbouring countries and to shut down oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. An average of 10 commodity ships transited the Strait per day in the past 10 days, the lowest since May, according to shipping data on Monday. That contributed to a rise in oil prices on Monday, with Brent crude futures hitting their highest point since July 24 at $97.

93 a barrel before slipping back to $96.19. SANCTIONS, OIL BLOCKADE SQUEEZE ECONOMY Iran has said it will step up efforts to tackle problems created by U.S. sanctions that are crippling its economy. However, the U.S. campaign to throttle Iran's economy by blockading its oil exports and stopping sanctions evasion is growing increasingly difficult to withstand, three senior Iranian sources have said.

Also read: Iran's Hormuz leverage wanes as US economic squeeze bites Qalibaf said at the weekend that, alongside the military front, Iran's main battle was now over production and people's livelihoods, citing currency fluctuations, inflation, unemployment and market management as big challenges.

The conflict has also impacted oil-producing Gulf Arab states such as the United Arab Emirates, which has come under fire from Iranian missiles and suffered attacks on its oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. UAE presidential adviser Anwar Gargash said on Monday the country was building alternative routes for its energy exports and trade to ensure they are not "held hostage" by the war.

The impact of Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on energy supplies has also been felt in the U.S. as fuel prices have increased. The increase has weighed on Trump's popularity as his Republican Party heads into elections in November when control of Congress is at stake.

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Can Iran enforce a restricted zone in the Strait of Hormuz? Iran unveils plans for a restricted zone, but will Tehran be able to enforce it amid escalating tensions with the US? Iran says it plans to establish a new restricted zone around the Strait of Hormuz, a global energy chokepoint, after Tehran and Washington traded attacks on ships in the crucial waterway in what experts called a “dangerous escalation”.

The two sides have been engaged in on-and-off attacks since a 60-day memorandum of understanding (MoU), signed on June 17, expired last month. Recommended Storieslist of 3 items - list 1 of 3Multipolarity gives middle powers more choices, but fewer guarantees - list 2 of 3US, Iran engaged in tanker war: Where is the months-long conflict headed?

- list 3 of 3Iran touts military response as US maintains blockade, hits tankers The latest escalation started after Iran targeted US warships patrolling and escorting oil tankers trying to evade the Tehran-imposed blockade of the strait. Meanwhile, a US naval blockade of the Iranian ports has drastically restricted its oil and other trade.

The MoU, which had ended the months-long military hostility, collapsed after 60 days due to disputes over who had ultimate control over the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has used as leverage in the war against the United States. Oil tankers have become the latest targets in the US-Israel war on Iran, with Tehran repeatedly warning vessels against using unauthorised routes through the Strait of Hormuz amid reports that a growing number of oil tankers are passing through the waterway.

Prior to the start of the war, 20 percent of the world’s oil and gas supplies flowed through the strait. So, where exactly will Iran’s proposed zone be, what restrictions will apply, and how does Tehran intend to enforce this? What did Iran say about the restrictive zone?

Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei said the zone would be announced in the coming days. “This zone will start from the US Navy’s blockade line and include areas of the Persian Gulf,” he said, according to Iranian state media.

“Any ship entering this new zone will be placed on the sanctions list [of Iran].” Rezaei said the zone would “begin from the line of the US naval blockade, extend toward the Strait of Hormuz, and from this side continue into the Persian Gulf”. However, Tehran has provided few details about the zone’s precise boundaries or what being placed on its sanctions list would mean for vessels entering it.

Rezaei said new maps detailing routes, worked on in conjunction with Oman for the Hormuz Strait, would also be approved soon. “The maps of a new international corridor which lies in Iranian and Omani waters and in which Iran will have management have been agreed and should be signed in the coming days,” he added.

“We will only commit to the Strait of Hormuz being open when they [the Americans] stop the sabotage, threats and attacks on Iran.” The announcement comes after Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said late last month that Iran and Oman had agreed on a temporary maritime route for ships travelling through the Strait of Hormuz, whose entry “would be through our territorial waters, and part of the exit route would also be through our territorial waters”.

How have the US and the world reacted? There has been no immediate US or wider international response specifically to Rezaei’s announcement of the new zone. However, on Sunday, Washington rejected an Iranian claim reported in local media that a US vessel had attempted to enter an area Tehran considers restricted and was attacked.

US Central Command (CENTCOM) spokesperson Captain Tim Hawkins called the Iranian account “a total lie”. The alleged attack comes days after Washington targeted three Iranian oil tankers and Tehran hit tankers and fired a ballistic missile towards US warships patrolling near the Strait of Hormuz.

Doesn’t Iran already prescribe a route for ships through Hormuz? Yes. Iran is already demanding that vessels use routes it approves through the strait. Iran first published a map of its approved navigation routes in April, directing vessels much closer to the Iranian coastline than they travelled before the war.

The route currently authorised by it follows a corridor along Iran’s coast. But Iran’s attempt to control navigation has been challenged by a separate route closer to Oman. In June, Oman, working with the International Maritime Organization (IMO), a United Nations agency that oversees shipping at sea, laid out a southern corridor intended to restore safe navigation through the strait.

A Liberian-flagged tanker, the Stoic Warrior, subsequently used a route that took it close to the coasts of the United Arab Emirates and Oman before passing around the Musandam Peninsula, an Omani exclave. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) objected to it, declaring that “the only authorised route” was the one announced by Iran and warning that vessels crossing without its permission would be “unacceptable and extremely dangerous”.

Following the 14-point MoU signed in June in the Swiss city of Geneva, traffic in the strait had picked up. But the resumption of attacks has severely limited commercial shipping in and around the key waterway. Under the MoU, the US agreed to end its naval blockade within 30 days, while Iran pledged to clear mines from the Strait of Hormuz and allow ships to pass “with no charge” for 60 days.

What is the current status of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz? Traffic is still getting through, but at substantially reduced levels. Before the conflict, about 20 million barrels of crude oil per day flowed through the waterway. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright, speaking to media on Sunday, said current transits were averaging more than nine million barrels of oil per day.

When pipelines bypassing the strait are included, Wright said flows were probably at “two-thirds or more of pre-conflict flows”. “So Iranians are still causing trouble, but the United States Navy is winning that battle,” he said. Bolstering US claims was the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) Centre, which on Sunday said 59 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the previous 48 hours.

US President Donald Trump has repeatedly claimed that the waterway is under Washington’s control despite near-daily Iranian attacks on ships, going so far as to suggest renaming the Strait of Hormuz after himself. Iran has disputed claims of growing traffic, claiming its chokehold on the waterway continues.

However, recent data from other maritime tracking companies and websites paints a mixed picture. Figures show only six vessels crossed the strait on Wednesday, 11 on Tuesday and five last Monday, with a 10-day average of just 13 vessels per day. On Monday, marine analytics firm Kpler showed that an average of 10 commodity ships transited the strait per day over the past 10 days, the lowest since May.

Before the US and Israel launched the war on Iran on February 28, more than 130 ships passed daily through the strait, which allowed free navigation. Now, the Trump administration is negotiating with Iran to open the strait. Meanwhile, Iran’s nuclear programme, which Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu invoked to launch the war, has vanished from the headlines.

Can Iran militarily enforce a new zone? Tehran has so far demonstrated an ability to make passage through Hormuz dangerous, forcing ships to avoid the waterway. At least 19 seafarers have been killed and dozens of ships attacked since March. Whether it can militarily enforce the much broader zone Rezaei has proposed – particularly against vessels protected by the US military – remains to be seen.

Stephen Zunes, founding chair of Middle Eastern Studies at the University of San Francisco, says Iran will struggle to enforce a restricted zone near the Strait of Hormuz. “It’s hard to see how they will really be able to enforce it. Iranian ships and planes trying to enforce that would be very vulnerable to US attacks,” he told Al Jazeera.

“But perhaps they are giving a warning, given there still would be some risk for shipping companies to not count on being able to get through the strait without suffering consequences.” Zunes said Iran may be hoping to provoke a broader US military response, which could benefit Tehran politically by “justifying attacks” on neighbouring Gulf countries and US military facilities in the region.

That, in turn, could help Iran, as public opinion in the US seems against continuing the conflict, while pushing the Iranian public to “rally around the flag” amid growing economic hardship at home. Moreover, Zunes noted, Iran’s plan for a restricted zone could be linked to its pending deal with Oman on shipping routes through the waterway.

If the deal with Oman is workable and something the US can accept, Iran could “pull back” from enforcing the restricted zone, Zunes said. If not, then Tehran has “something ready to try to make it more problematic for Washington” to refuse the deal with Oman.

strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIranUN
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Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei stated that Tehran intends to designate a new restricted shipping zone in the Persian Gulf, though details regarding the specific geographic boundaries and enforcement mechanisms of this declared area remain unverified.

This announcement follows recent escalations, including US airstrikes and Iranian missile attacks, amid conflicting claims from both governments regarding the current operational status of the Strait of Hormuz.

Location: Strait of Hormuz