Summary

Israelis are closely following the military campaign against Iran: which commanders were eliminated, how much damage was inflicted, and how long Iran can sustain its missile fire. But there is another front in this war – quieter, less visible, and potentially far more dangerous. It is the war on energy infrastructure. In recent months, Israel has struck key Iranian fuel and gas facilities. Iran, in turn, has repeatedly targeted Israel’s refineries in Haifa. This is not a coincidence. It is the emergence of a new and escalating pattern: energy systems as primary targets in modern warfare. This shift carries consequences that extend far beyond immediate military gains, and Israel may be far more exposed than it appears. A dangerous cycle of retaliation Targeting energy infrastructure creates a powerful incentive for retaliation in kind. Unlike other military assets, these facilities are both critical and vulnerable. They are also deeply interconnected with civilian life. Iran has already demonstrated its willingness to respond symmetrically. Israeli strikes on gas and fuel infrastructure have been followed by attacks on refineries and other energy assets. This tit-for-tat dynamic risks locking both sides into a cycle that is difficult to contain. For Israel, the implications are serious. Its energy system, offshore gas rigs, power plants, and refineries, present a relatively concentrated set of high-value targets. A sustained campaign against these assets could disrupt electricity supply, industry, and daily life. The assumption that such escalation can be carefully managed may prove overly optimistic. What history teaches us There is nothing theoretical about the risks involved. Past conflicts offer clear warnings. During the 1991 Gulf War, Iraqi forces set fire to hundreds of oil wells in Kuwait. The result was a months-long environmental catastrophe: massive air pollution, widespread health impacts, and long-term ecological damage. Oil spills devastated marine ecosystems, while toxic smoke spread across the region and beyond. In 2006, an Israeli airstrike on a power plant in Lebanon led to a major oil spill in the Mediterranean, contaminating over 100 kilometers of coastline. The environmental and economic damage lasted for years. More recently, in Ukraine, Russian attacks on energy infrastructure have caused large-scale pollution, damaged water systems, and contributed significantly to carbon emissions. The pattern is consistent: once energy systems are targeted, the damage spreads across borders and persists long after the fighting ends. Beyond the battlefield: Systemic fallout What makes the current situation particularly alarming is the central role of the Gulf in global energy and supply chains. Disruptions in this region do not stay local; they ripple outward through interconnected systems. Water is one immediate concern. Many Gulf states depend on desalination, which requires both energy and clean seawater. Damage to gas supplies or oil contamination can shut down these facilities, creating the risk of acute water shortages. Food is another. Natural gas is essential for fertilizer production, and supply disruptions, especially around the Strait of Hormuz, can quickly translate into higher global food prices. Vulnerable populations will feel this first, but the effects will be widespread. Electricity systems are also at risk. In Iran, most power generation relies on natural gas. Damage to this infrastructure threatens hospitals, cooling systems, and food preservation – basic services that millions depend on. These are not secondary effects. They are central to how modern societies function. The environmental and human cost Despite the strategic focus on military objectives, the environmental and humanitarian consequences of these attacks receive far less attention. Burning fuel facilities release large quantities of pollutants, directly affecting civilian populations. Air quality deteriorates, water sources are contaminated, and long-term health risks increase. In Iran, this creates a paradox. Strikes that damage energy infrastructure primarily harm ordinary citizens. Severe pollution and disruptions to daily life may force people to leave affected areas, but they are unlikely to translate into political change. If anything, such conditions can strengthen the regime’s grip by increasing dependency and reducing the capacity for organized dissent. Strategic risks for Israel The environmental and humanitarian dimensions are only part of the picture. There is also a clear strategic risk. Iran has already expanded its targeting, and further escalation could include attacks on regional energy routes and infrastructure critical to Israel’s supply. One example is the network of pipelines through which Israel imports a significant share of its oil. Disruptions to these routes would have immediate economic consequences. In addition, damage to global energy markets translates directly into higher costs for transportation, electricity, and basic goods. These pressures ultimately feed back into Israel’s economy. In other words, the costs of this strategy are not confined to the battlefield. They are systemic and already being felt. A different path forward If the goal of targeting Iran’s energy sector is to weaken the regime, the evidence suggests that the impact may be limited. The risks, however, are substantial. A more effective approach would focus on strengthening Israel’s resilience rather than expanding the scope of targets. Regional energy cooperation is one such path. Connecting electricity grids across borders with neighboring countries can improve stability, reduce costs, and provide backup in times of disruption. Countries in our region are already moving in this direction. For Israel, integrating networks with Jordan and Egypt for backup purposes, as a first stage, and later on building a mutual electricity market, alongside existing plans to connect with Europe through Cyprus, could enhance energy security while reducing vulnerability to attacks. This is a move of national security grade. Nothing less. Conclusion The targeting of energy infrastructure marks a significant shift in the conflict with Iran. It introduces a layer of risk that is broader, more complex, and more difficult to control than conventional military engagement. Short-term tactical gains must be weighed against long-term consequences. Energy systems are not just strategic assets; they are the foundation of modern life. When they are disrupted, the effects are felt across economies, societies, and borders. Israel would do well to consider not only what can be achieved through these strikes, but also what may be set in motion as a result. The writer is a policy fellow at the Mitvim Institute, the CEO of Future – a Climate Innovation advisory, and chairman of the NGO Israel Earth Guardians.