Summary Hello and welcome to the Guardian’s continuing coverage of the crisis in the Middle East. Donald Trump has hailed an agreement to de-escalate the fighting in Lebanon, which has killed thousands of people and inflamed tensions in the broader US-Israeli war with Iran. Trump said Hezbollah, through intermediaries, had pledged not to attack Israel, while Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu agreed to pull back any troops preparing to attack Beirut. “Let’s see how long that lasts – Hopefully it will be for ETERNITY!” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform. According to Lebanon’s embassy in Washington, the agreement would not end the conflict in that country. But it calls for Israel to refrain from strikes on Beirut and its suburbs controlled by Hezbollah, while the Iran-aligned group would halt its attacks on Israel. Despite the agreement, hostilities in southern Lebanon – which Israel invaded in March – appeared to continue. This morning, the Israeli military said that it intercepted two projectiles that crossed from Lebanon into northern Israel, and that no injuries were reported. After Trump’s announcement, Netanyahu said Israel would continue military operations in southern Lebanon, where ground forces are pushing toward the Zahrani River, their deepest incursion in Lebanon in 25 years. His statement made no mention of a new ceasefire. Hezbollah lawmaker Hassan Fadlallah said the group would support a full ceasefire across all Lebanon as a precursor to the withdrawal of Israeli troops. He did not say whether the group would stop its strikes on Israeli territory. Lebanon said it would seek to expand the ceasefire in talks with Israel in Washington tomorrow. That could clear the path for renewed efforts to end the three-month-old war that began with US and Israeli attacks on Iran. The process has been stuck in limbo for weeks under a fragile ceasefire as negotiators have been unable to agree on an initial framework for peace talks. In other developments: - Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) threatened to open “new fronts” and keep the strait of Hormuz closed over Israel’s offensive in Lebanon, state media reported. “Iran considers crossing the red lines in Lebanon and Gaza to mean direct war,” state TV quoted the IRGC’ intelligence organisation as saying. - The ceasefire already in place between Iran and the US is unequivocally a ceasefire on all fronts, including in Lebanon, Iran’s top diplomat said yesterday after Netanyahu ordered attacks on the Hezbollah-controlled southern suburbs of Beirut. “Violation on one front is a violation of the ceasefire on all fronts. The US and Israel are responsible for the consequences of any violation,” foreign minister Abbas Araghchi wrote on X. - US secretary of state Marco Rubio will face questions at Congress today for the first time since the Iran war began. He will testify before House and Senate committees on the state department’s 2027 budget request, where he is expected to face questions about Trump’s war efforts and shifting diplomatic goals. - Oil prices jumped and equities slid as Middle East peace talks stumbled and tensions mounted between Iran and the US. Crude futures shot more than 5% higher yesterday as an Iranian news agency announced Tehran had suspended the negotiations with the US via mediators, AFP reported. - US forces intercepted two Iranian ballistic missiles targeting American forces based in Kuwait late on Sunday, the US military said yesterday. No American personnel were harmed, it added.
Iranian Official
The Iranian government views the reported de-escalation agreement as a direct outcome of Hezbollah's steadfast resistance against Israeli aggression and occupation in Lebanon, which has violated the country's sovereignty through deep incursions toward the Zahrani River. Foreign powers, including the US under Trump, cannot impose lasting solutions that ignore Lebanon's right to defend itself from ongoing strikes and invasions, even as hostilities persist in the south. Tehran reaffirms its support for the axis of resistance in upholding national sovereignty against such external threats.
Israeli
Israel views the reported de-escalation as a temporary pause that does nothing to remove the existential rocket and infiltration threat from Iran’s Hezbollah proxy network embedded across southern Lebanon. Ongoing intercepts of projectiles and the need to advance ground forces toward the Zahrani River reflect defensive necessity after years of cross-border attacks and the March incursion required to push militants back from Israel’s northern communities. Netanyahu’s refusal to halt operations underscores that lasting security demands dismantling these forward bases rather than relying on unverifiable pledges.
Neutral
Donald Trump stated that Hezbollah, via intermediaries, had pledged not to attack Israel and that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had agreed to withdraw troops preparing to strike Beirut. Lebanon’s embassy in Washington reported that the arrangement would not end the conflict but would require Israel to avoid strikes on Beirut and its Hezbollah-controlled suburbs in exchange for Hezbollah halting attacks on Israel. Israeli forces intercepted projectiles from Lebanon, and Netanyahu indicated that military operations in southern Lebanon would continue.
Western
President Trump hailed a de-escalation agreement under which Hezbollah, via intermediaries, pledged to halt attacks on Israel while Israeli forces would refrain from strikes on Beirut. Israeli operations continue in southern Lebanon with precision targeting to neutralize Hezbollah threats, advancing to the Zahrani River as part of efforts to secure the northern border following the group's rocket launches. Israel intercepted projectiles from Lebanon with no reported injuries, demonstrating effective defensive measures against Iran-aligned militants.
Pro-Peace
The partial de-escalation deal in Lebanon, amid fighting that has already killed thousands of civilians and displaced countless more, leaves southern communities under relentless assault as Israeli forces push deeper toward the Zahrani River. With Hezbollah endorsing a full nationwide ceasefire as the only viable path to ending the bloodshed, the persistence of hostilities underscores the urgent need for sustained diplomacy rather than incremental military gains that prolong human suffering. Prioritizing comprehensive talks could avert further catastrophe and spare families caught in the crossfire.
Global South
Lebanon’s sovereignty remains undermined as external powers, led by the US, dictate fragile de-escalation terms through intermediaries, allowing Israeli forces to sustain their deepest incursion in 25 years toward the Zahrani River. This partial truce, excluding full protection for Beirut while ignoring institutional failures in enforcing borders, reflects classic neo-colonial patterns where Global North actors prolong conflicts to contain Iran-aligned resistance. Hezbollah’s conditional restraint underscores how non-aligned states like Lebanon endure repeated violations without genuine multilateral recourse.
Summary Hello and welcome to the Guardian’s continuing coverage of the crisis in the Middle East. Donald Trump has hailed an agreement to de-escalate the fighting in Lebanon, which has killed thousands of people and inflamed tensions in the broader US-Israeli war with Iran. Trump…
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A tanker identified as the Kaifan was struck by an unknown projectile northeast of Oman’s Limah in the Strait of Hormuz, according to a July 21 report from UK Maritime Trade Operations. No ships were observed transiting the strait that day. Attribution of the strike and links to prior incidents have not been confirmed by the vessel’s owner.
Goldman Sachs has projected Brent crude averaging $80 per barrel in the fourth quarter and $75 in the following year, conditional on reduced Middle East tensions, while noting upside risks from potential shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz or Red Sea.
Brent prices rose above $91 per barrel amid recent U.S.-Iran exchanges and Houthi threats to Saudi shipments before edging lower on Tuesday. A senior Iranian official told Reuters that mediators had proposed a 10-day ceasefire to preserve an interim agreement.
US forces struck the tanker Settebello in the Gulf of Oman on June 10, killing three Indian crew members when munitions hit the engine room and adjacent areas. Maritime tracking data indicate the vessel had transported Iranian oil under US sanctions for several years and conducted offshore transfers prior to the strike.
The US military described the action as a precision operation, while reports note the ship was stationary at the time.
Iranian officials reported strikes on US radar and air defense sites in Kuwait and Bahrain, along with the interception of two oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. The United States conducted strikes on Iranian targets following the deaths of three US soldiers, with the Pentagon stating the actions aimed to degrade capabilities affecting shipping.
Houthi forces in Yemen announced plans to blockade Saudi ports, while both US and Iranian leaders issued statements on further escalation.