Summary

Russia is using the Caspian Sea to ship drone components to Iran in order to help the Islamic Republic rebuild its offensive capabilities, the New York Times reported on Saturday, citing US officials. The report stated that the Caspian Sea has now become a vital trade route between the two allies. Russia is now sending goods that would traditionally travel through the Strait of Hormuz to ports along the Caspian Sea. Iranian officials have noted that the regime is seeking to open alternative trade routes due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The report stated that there are currently four ports in the Caspian working day and night to bring in supplies such as wheat, corn, animal feed, and sunflower oil. One Russian businessman went so far as to say that he believes that cargo tonnage in the Caspian could double by the end of the year. “Against the backdrop of instability in the Middle East, Caspian routes to Iran look much more attractive,” said Vitaly Chernov, head of analytics for a company that tracks Russia’s maritime industry. Russia, Iran use Caspian to evade sanctions The report noted that trade in the Caspian Sea is difficult to track from a distance. Ships that regularly traverse it turn off their tracking, and only the five nations that border it have access to the Caspian. Additionally, while Moscow and Tehran are public about trading goods like wheat, their defensive trade is a different story. “If you’re thinking about the ideal place for sanction evasion and military transfers, it’s the Caspian,” said Prof. Nicole Grajewski of Sciences Po in Paris. While Russia’s shipping of drone parts may not be instrumental in Tehran’s military capabilities, it helps rebuild the regime’s offensive capabilities. The report noted that 60% of its drone arsenal was used during the war between Israel, Iran, and the US. If the shipments continue, Tehran can rebuild its arsenal more quickly, informed sources told the NYT. The trade has flowed both ways in years past. The NYT noted that during the onset of the war in Ukraine, Iran shipped Russia Shahed drones to use on the battlefield, even though the Kremlin had already developed an improved version of the drone. “For American policymakers, the Caspian is a geopolitical black hole; it’s almost like it doesn’t exist,” senior Hudson Institute fellow Luke Coffey told the NYT. He added that the nations that border the Caspian are fragmented for US military planners: Central Command controls Iran, Turkmenistan, and Kazakhstan, while European Command controls Azerbaijan and Russia. The Caspian Sea’s potential importance came into focus in 2022, when the Russian military used ships there to fire into Ukraine. Iran also used the Caspian Sea at the outset of the Ukraine war to resupply Russian troops with ammunition. “Russia and Iran have found ways around the sanctions regime,” Anna Borshchevskaya, an expert on Russia’s Middle East policy at the Washington Institute, told the NYT. “That’s exactly why the Israelis bombed the port. Because they understood that through this small, very important trade route, Russia can provide a lot of help to Iran.”