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strikeMay 5, 2026

The risk of the Iran war restarting is irrationally high

Summary

You may follow our live coverage of the West Asia war here Khamenei still hasn’t been seen in public and is believed to be injured and hiding in near isolation. Yet he appears to be playing a significant political role in this crisis and, on April 30, announced there would be no concessions on Iran’s nuclear or missile programs, no return to free international sea passage through the Strait of Hormuz oil route, and no acceptance of a continued US presence in the Middle East. These are the kinds of things people declare when they believe their hand is so strong they can impose the humiliation of defeat on an opponent. But Iran doesn’t have all the aces in this deadly game of poker. Nor does US President Donald Trump, who has made similarly capitulatory demands of Tehran. Neither side appears to fully grasp the other’s strengths, nor their own weaknesses. Trump just had his navy escort a handful of ships through the Strait of Hormuz, in an attempt to break Iran’s side of the blockade. Tehran’s response included a revival of missile and drone attacks on the United Arab Emirates, including an oil terminal and several unprotected commercial vessels. It required the US to sink six small boats and to deny claims from Iranian state media that one of the US Navy’s escorts had been hit. Freeing two ships from their quarantine in the Gulf at that level of cost is not a success story. It establishes that an operation to reopen the strait is possible, but only at high expense and risk, because the Iranians have shown they will respond. The April 8 ceasefire remains in place only because both sides know this was a test, and that a return to all-out war is unlikely to deliver a victory. Khamenei made his statement last week on the anniversary of the 1622 Anglo-Persian capture of a fortress on Hormuz Island, which for more than a century had given Portugal control over access to the Gulf and a monopoly on regional trade. His appeal to Persian history was part of a wider attempt to wrap the Islamic Republic’s desperately unpopular regime in the national (as opposed to Islamist) flag, and to build a new narrative to legitimize the regime that Khamenei now heads. This may have some pull for as long as the war continues. Beyond that it’s wishful thinking, unless the younger Khamenei can revive the economy and make the sweeping reforms that most Iranians demand and his father failed to deliver — which he can’t, or at least would have to enact de facto regime change to achieve. His position is weak. Also read: US fights to reopen the Strait of Hormuz as the UAE comes under attack in a test of Iran truce The Iranian rial, whose collapse triggered mass protests against the regime in January, is tumbling again. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is still standing, but it has been mauled, with its top commanders killed and air defenses destroyed. Iran may have deterred Trump for now from carrying through his threat to destroy its energy infrastructure, because it can do something similar to its Gulf neighbors in response, but that doesn’t mean Khamenei can afford to invite such action. And yet he is. Some leaders in Tehran do seem to understand the risk that an unyielding position poses to their hold on power, and therefore their lives. These include President Masoud Pezeshkian, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf — the trio heading efforts to negotiate an end to the war. The result is a division within the regime that’s being played out in state media. Absent a revolt in some part of the security apparatus, however, it is not the kind of split that produces a coup d’etat. The White House is making similar errors of judgment. Ghalibaf recently posted on X, the US social-media app, a formula to show why Trump’s many claims are mistaken, if not delusional. These have included boasts that the war is already won and that Iran’s military is destroyed, its economy collapsed, its nuclear program obliterated and its oil infrastructure about to “explode.” Ghalibaf, a former IRGC commander, came up with an equation that pits Iran’s ability to drive up global energy prices, by stopping supplies from leaving the Gulf, against the countermeasures available to Trump. As you’d expect, his calculations favored Tehran. He marked Iran’s cards — such as closing access to the Red Sea or targeting the oil pipelines that are allowing some of its neighbors to bypass Hormuz — as still wholly or partially unplayed. US options, by contrast, he marked as already spent. Neither assumption is accurate. Nevertheless his equation is largely right in the sense that, so long as the ceasefire holds and Hormuz remains blocked, this conflict has become a test of how well each side can endure the economic and political stress inflicted on it by the other. Neither can afford an indefinite standoff, hence Trump’s attempt to break the stalemate and Iran’s response. Hubris is impeding the ability of either to make a reasoned assessment of the other’s readiness to fight back, a failure that encourages unrealistic expectations of victory and makes painful concessions appear avoidable. Also read: Iran's top negotiator warns Tehran 'not even started' in Hormuz standoff The errors that led to this war are too many to count. Any cold assessment would have to include the previous supreme leader’s decision to use Iran’s status as a “threshold” nuclear power for negotiating leverage. Likewise his brutal imposition of a geriatric Islamist regime on an unwilling population. Trump’s expectation that he could deal with Iran as he did with Venezuela is yet another mistake born of hubris, and they keep coming. It’s hard to predict whether Trump will be able to pull off his attempt to open up the strait to international traffic without Iran landing a blow on an American vessel, or destroying energy infrastructure in the Gulf States that could take price-changing quantities of oil and gas off the global market for years — or even if success would deliver the definitive end to Iran’s nuclear program that seems to be Trump’s minimum requirement for a deal. But what does seem clear is that overconfidence in both the White House and whichever bunker holds Iran’s new supreme leader makes a resumption of a war born of hubris just one further mistake away. (Disclaimer: The views expressed in this op-ed are those of Bloomberg author's and do not represent EconomicTimes.com's stance) (You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel) (You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel)

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  • SECTIONS The risk; BloombergBy SECTIONS The risk; Bloomberg

    You may follow our live coverage of the West Asia war here Khamenei still hasn’t been seen in public and is believed to be injured and hiding in near isolation. Yet he appears to be playing a significant political role in this crisis and, on April 30, announced there would be no

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DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Iran attacked a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz early Tuesday, forcing its crew to abandon the ship, while the United States conducted yet another round of airstrikes targeting the Islamic Republic as they struggle over control of the key waterway.

The 10 consecutive nights of U.S. airstrikes haven’t compelled Tehran to loosen its grip on the strait, through which about a fifth of all crude oil and natural gas traded once passed in peacetime. Even as the U.S. and Iran inch closer to all-out war again, Iran’s interior minister traveled to Pakistan, a key mediator in the conflict, for talks.

However, it remains unclear just what new deal could be reached to end the fighting. The interim deal signed last month that was meant to end the fighting has crumbled. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has largely stalled. And as fighting intensifies, both sides have targeted civilian infrastructure relied on by millions of people.

“Iran and groups supportive of Iran may target other U.S. interests overseas or at locations associated with the United States and Americans throughout the world,” the U.S. State Department said in a new warning to Americans. The escalation has pushed oil prices higher in recent weeks.

Benchmark Brent crude traded Tuesday above $88 a barrel and regular gasoline in the U.S. climbed to an average of $4 a gallon, keeping pressure on Americans’ wallets ahead of midterm elections this fall. Meanwhile, the U.S. military identified two soldiers who were killed in Jordan in attacks that left a third person missing.

Separately, the military confirmed another death in Iraq on Saturday during the “controlled detonation” of a downed Iranian drone. President Donald Trump took to social media on Monday to warn that “Every time Iran kills an American Soldier they will pay for that killing many times over!

” Trump was planning to attend a ceremony on Tuesday evening at Dover Air Force Base, where at least one service member’s remains were due to arrive. US strikes come as ships attacked The U.S. military’s Central Command said Tuesday it targeted “Iranian military command centers, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites and air defense systems.

” It released more footage of bombings that targeted sites in Iran. “American forces remain postured and prepared to hold Iran accountable for unwarranted aggression toward civilian mariners seeking to freely and openly transit the strait,” the command said.

Iranian state media reported that explosions were heard in Fars, Hormozgan, Ilam, Kerman and Sistan and Baluchistan provinces. However, traffic through the strait has slowed to a crawl during the latest violence. Lloyd's List Intelligence said only three ships transited the strait on Sunday.

The British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center said a tanker came under attack early Tuesday in the strait off Oman, forcing the crew to abandon the vessel. Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard claimed the attack, as well as two other attacks on ships Monday in the waterway.

The route around Oman has been the one the U.S. military has encouraged ships to travel to avoid Iran’s control. The UKMTO separately reported Tuesday that another previously unknown attack on a ship took place early the previous day. Tehran also hit U.

S.-allied countries throughout the Middle East. Jordan military's said Tuesday that Iran targeted it with five drones and three missiles, all of which were shot down. Bahrain sounded its missile alert sirens Tuesday afternoon as another Iranian barrage targeted the island kingdom, which is home to the U.

S. Navy's 5th Fleet. Nearly 100 US injuries since early July The Pentagon’s chief spokesperson said nearly 100 U.S. service members have been injured since the U.S. restarted strikes on July 7, and 96% of them have returned to duty.

“The vast majority of injuries experienced were minor concussions,” Sean Parnell posted Monday on X in response to a New York Times report that the Pentagon has withheld information about troop injuries from Iranian strikes. He denied that the Pentagon was hiding data about injuries.

However, the Defense Casualty Analysis System, the military’s clearinghouse for reporting deaths and injuries in conflict, has not been updated as of Monday night with the latest attacks. Yemen rebels threaten attacks on other Mideast waterway Yemen’s Houthi rebels announced a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia on Monday.

The Houthis, who are backed by Iran, said they would block shipping between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden by targeting the Bab el-Mandeb, a maritime chokepoint like the Strait of Hormuz, in response to an attack on Sanaa International Airport last week that they blamed on Saudi Arabia.

With the Strait of Hormuz blocked, Saudi Arabia has been relying on a pipeline to the Red Sea to get millions of barrels of oil out to market. The Houthis earlier demonstrated their ability to disrupt shipping there when they targeted ships for months over the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, with over 100 vessels attacked.

Saudi Arabia’s military said it would keep the waterway open. “All Houthi threats against transiting vessels will be dealt with swiftly and firmly, as such threats are a blatant violation of international law and fall under acts of maritime piracy,” said Maj.

Gen, Turki al-Malki, a Saudi military spokesman. A glimmer of hope for diplomacy Pakistan has intensified diplomatic efforts in recent days to resuscitate the interim deal. Iranian Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni arrived in Islamabad on Monday for two days of talks with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and others.

On Sunday, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters that the U.S. is still open to negotiating with Iran but that “it has to be real.” “If the door opens to diplomacy — if the guys that want to do something productive for Iran win and take control of that system, or take control of the negotiations — that’ll be a very positive development,” Rubio said.

“That’s not where we are tonight, unfortunately.” Iranian authorities on Sunday said at least 50 people have been killed and 517 wounded in the latest rounds of U.S. strikes. Since the war began on Feb. 28, 17 U.S. service members have been killed.

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A tanker identified as the Kaifan was struck by an unknown projectile northeast of Oman’s Limah in the Strait of Hormuz, according to a July 21 report from UK Maritime Trade Operations. No ships were observed transiting the strait that day. Attribution of the strike and links to prior incidents have not been confirmed by the vessel’s owner.

Location: Strait of Hormuz
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Goldman Sachs has projected Brent crude averaging $80 per barrel in the fourth quarter and $75 in the following year, conditional on reduced Middle East tensions, while noting upside risks from potential shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz or Red Sea.

Brent prices rose above $91 per barrel amid recent U.S.-Iran exchanges and Houthi threats to Saudi shipments before edging lower on Tuesday. A senior Iranian official told Reuters that mediators had proposed a 10-day ceasefire to preserve an interim agreement.

Location: Tehran
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Opening summary: Iran claims attacks on strait of Hormuz ships amid fresh US strikes Welcome to our live coverage of the latest developments in the Middle East crisis. Iran attacked a tanker in the strait of Hormuz early on Tuesday, forcing its crew to abandon the ship, as Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis announced they were imposing an immediate maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea after the two sides traded fire last week for the first time in years.

A Houthi official said the Bab al-Mandeb strait – at the southern end of the Red Sea, through which about 12% of the world’s trade usually passes – would be closed to the Saudis in response to the kingdom’s “unjust blockade on Yemenis for over 10 years”.

Saudi Arabia said it would take “all necessary measures to protect its vessels in accordance with international law”. A 10 consecutive night of US airstrikes has not compelled Tehran to loosen its grip on the strait of Hormuz, a vital route for global energy supplies.

But even as Iran’s president said the country had returned “full-scale war”, the Iranian interior minister travelled to Pakistan – a key mediator in the conflict – for talks. In key developments: The latest US strikes came hours after Donald Trump said Iran would pay “many times over” for killing US soldiers after multiple service members were killed in action over the weekend.

A tanker came under attack early Tuesday in the Hormuz strait off Oman, forcing the crew to abandon the vessel, the British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations centre said. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards claimed the attack as well as two other attacks on ships in the waterway on Monday.

The US military’s Central Command said its latest airstrikes were to “degrade” Iran’s ability to attack commercial shipping in the strait and included hitting military command centres and missile and drone launch sites. Iranian media reported strikes in parts of the country including Bandar Abbas, Tabriz and Bushehr, home to the country’s only operational civilian nuclear power.

Iran’s launched attacks in response against Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan, which all host US forces. Oil prices softened after hitting their highest levels in more than a month in the previous session. Brent crude futures eased 0.4% to $88.87 a barrel by 0052 GMT on Tuesday while US West Texas Intermediate crude for September delivery was steady at $82.

47 a barrel. Democrats have seized on the deaths of three US troops killed in Iranian strikes to urge Trump to urgently reverse his resumption of the war with Iran amid widespread anxiety over climbing casualties. The Lebanese army began taking charge of security in three southern villages, the US said, as a deal to secure an Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon and the disarmament of Hezbollah faced its first test on the ground.