The US and Mexico, growing together and growing apart: A perspective from our CEO

Summary

The presidents of Mexico and the U.S. are both acting like they are in a hurry. Both of them set the tone for their respective nations with daily press conferences filled with facts, figures and updates. Their agendas are similarly fast-paced. In Trump’s case, it’s enough to make just about anyone’s head spin. His policies impact nearly every part of the economy — every business, every family and every region of the world. Interestingly, in some ways Mexico’s agenda is bringing the country closer to the United States, especially in regards to security collaborations. Yet in other ways, the two countries are more different than ever. For many years, Mexico arguably used the issue of “cracking down on the cartels” as a negotiating chip. Similarly to Iran or North Korea using the threat of a nuclear weapon to give them leverage, previous Mexican presidents would often try to use the cartel crackdown issue as a way to gain leverage against the U.S. Sadly, as has been the case with Iran and North Korea, it is the Mexican people who have most suffered from their government playing this game (as well as the victims of drugs overdoses in other countries, of course). The Mexican people for decades watched the lack of government success on this issue cause hundreds of thousands of violent deaths, countless suffering by families and a variety of lost opportunities — including billions of dollars of business investments that were never made and millions of visitors who didn’t come to the country. AMLO’s attempts to “hug” the cartels, even going so far as meeting with El Chapo’s mother, are some of the most blatant examples of this. In AMLO’s mind, it appeared that it wasn’t in Mexico’s best interest to take the cartel issue too seriously unless something could be extracted in return from the U.S. for doing so. This position resulted in no progress being made in violent deaths in Mexico or drug overdose deaths in the U.S. Thankfully, there have been some recent early indications that this could be changing with deeper cooperation and coordination between the Sheinbaum and Trump administrations. After the recent killing of the notorious CJNG leader “El Mencho” a few weeks ago, I shared “10 reasons why this time could be different.” Just this week, there has been further evidence of progress and collaboration between the two countries. Mexico has often argued that the U.S. needed to do more on its own side of the border to combat the drug trade. This week the Sheinbaum administration reported more than 24,000 illegal firearms (over 80% of which come from the United States) seized in the past 17 months — which is double the rate of seizures of AMLO’s administration. Also this week, the U.S. Department of the Treasury targeted 14 counties in the United States where it believes that cartels launder cash. This is an interesting case of the administration identifying other actions that can be taken against the cartels beyond violent confrontations in Mexico. Both of these actions seem to reflect a clear improvement in cooperation and information sharing between the two administrations. The result, as you might expect, is a reported decline of 44% in homicides in Mexico last month. It is far too early to declare victory yet, but there is tangible progress that is clearly making a difference. As positive as the “growing together” news has been on the cartel front, Mexico is growing apart from the U.S. in other ways, some of which we highlighted this week. The first one is related to train ridership. Everyone knows of the decades of neglect and decline in the Amtrak service in most of the U.S., and California’s high speed train project has become a disaster. There are also signs that local metro services in many cities haven’t recovered since the pandemic. In fact, just this week the New York Times reported on the nearly 50% decline in ridership in San Francisco’s BART transit system since the pandemic. There are some bright spots for trains in the U.S., with East Coast Amtrak ridership holding strong and new projects in Florida and Texas, but in general train enthusiasts don’t have much to celebrate. More Mexicans are riding the rails as train ridership tops 55 million The situation couldn’t be more different in Mexico as the country works to reinvigorate the passenger train system nationwide. The renewed interest in trains began under AMLO, with the massive (and costly) Maya Train and Interoceanic Train projects both being built under his watch. Despite the budget-busting investments and federal government support, both projects have had their problems, with Maya Train ridership significantly below initial projections and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec’s Interoceanic Train recently suffering a tragic accident. That has not dampened the country’s interest in trains and the Sheinbaum administration has doubled down on massive new train projects heading north from Mexico City to the country’s industrial center and ultimately to the cities of Guadalajara and Monterrey. Just this week it was revealed that total ridership nationwide in 2025 increased nearly 7% to 55 million. The trend is expected to accelerate in 2026 and beyond as the new projects come on line. Another headline that highlights divergence between the U.S. and Mexico relates to electric vehicles. The U.S. recently ended years federal government tax credits for electric vehicles and also ended increasingly strict fuel efficiency standards. Mexico, on the other hand, has seen a boom in electric vehicle sales (many from China) and recently announced that two U.S.-based companies will invest over US $500 million to improve the electric vehicle charging network in the country. The two countries current directions regarding electric vehicles couldn’t be more different. It’s interesting to see this trend of increasing cooperation in some areas and increasing divergence in others between the U.S. and Mexico. It will be fascinating to see how these specific issues play out in the future, as well as look for trends in other areas. The team at MND will keep you updated! Travis Bembenek is the CEO of Mexico News Daily and has been living, working or playing in Mexico for nearly 30 years.