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strikeAug 17, 2026

Trump Has Opened the Door for Putin to Make a Move on NATO

Summary

Trump Has Opened the Door for Putin to Make a Move on NATO President Donald Trump is providing Russian President Vladimir Putin a window of opportunity to break apart NATO, analysts fear, even as the Kremlin searches for an elusive path to victory in its grinding war of attrition against Ukraine. American actions are accumulating into an existential crisis for the alliance. Trump and members of his administration continue to openly signal their contempt for allies and unwillingness to defend Europe, as the U.S. becomes bogged down in a costly war against Iran with no apparent exit. Putin may be emboldened by the increasingly strained relationship between NATO and its most important member nation. Intelligence reports from multiple countries have long warned that Russia may be ready to widen the Ukraine war into a direct test of NATO’s resolve. Michael Kofman, an expert on the Russian military and a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, says it’s important to interpret such assessments as “low likelihood possibilities” — noting that defense analysts are especially sensitive about omitting worst-case scenarios when it comes to Russia, given the number of wildly incorrect predictions that have surrounded the war in Ukraine. “The concern is: Should Putin decide that he wants to capitalize on the obvious tensions between the United States and its European allies within NATO — or miscalculate in an effort to coerce a NATO member — what are his military options and how might that challenge look in the future?” Kofman says. A secret American intelligence assessment leaked to The Wall Street Journal earlier this month claims Russia could carry out a “limited incursion” against a NATO member, with the goal of provoking a split within the alliance. There’s little question about Putin’s desire to neuter NATO, or his willingness to push the envelope in pursuing long-term goals. With the septuagenarian now in his fifth term as president, his worldview is growing increasingly apocalyptic, researchers say. Editor’s picks Beatrice de Graaf and Niels Drost, Dutch academics who penned a soon-to-be published book called Putin’s Czarist Dream: History as a Weapon in Russian Politics, have compiled every public speech Putin has made since he first became president on the last day of 1999. They see a marked downward trajectory. While Putin has shown an obsession with the “great czars” of Russian history from his earliest days, his rhetoric began to darken around 2004. By the time he campaigned for a third presidential term in 2011, he had “immersed himself in the triad of Russian state power: nationalism, autocracy, and Orthodoxy,” they say, and he now speaks primarily in Manichean terms of good versus evil. The Russian president regularly exalts his homeland as the “Third Rome” — after Imperial Rome itself, then Constantinople — the inheritor of the only “true Christian” empire. He describes the war in Ukraine as a fight against the “satanic” forces of the West. Whether Putin truly believes this or not, he’s made no secret of wanting to remove NATO from the geopolitical chessboard, and place Eastern and Central Europe firmly back in Russia’s sphere of influence. And for many Russians sympathetic to the war — in particular the extreme nationalists sometimes called “turbopatriots” — the conflict in Ukraine is already viewed as a de facto war with the West. While Ukraine is not part of NATO, it is allied with many of its member nations. Even before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the Kremlin carried out a sustained campaign of “hybrid warfare” — covert action, assassination, sabotage, cyberattacks, and disinformation — against targets in Europe. Since the invasion, the steady drumbeat of provocative overt military actions and covert intelligence operations has increased in tempo and volume, both along NATO’s borders and within its member nations themselves. Related Content The war in Ukraine has bled across borders, bringing a small taste of the conflict to otherwise tranquil European cities. Authorities across the continent now regularly uncover plots they trace back to Russian intelligence, such as an explosive drone discovered at Leipzig Airport in Germany last week, apparently meant to target a Ukrainian cargo plane; or an assassination attempt on a U.S. citizen in Warsaw, Poland. Rolling Stone asked a NATO official if there was any notable increase in activity by Russian conventional forces. “I wouldn’t say that we’re seeing anything remarkably different than we’ve seen before,” the NATO official, who requested anonymity, says. “Russia has been the most significant conventional threat to NATO for quite a while now. We don’t see that changing. We see it as a threat today, and tomorrow, and into the long term.” It’s clear that militaries across Europe take the Russian threat seriously. When Denmark deployed a mechanized battlegroup to Latvia last week via commercial ship, the movement was effectively conducted as a troop transport under wartime conditions. The MV Ark Germania, carrying 800 Danish soldiers, their vehicles, and equipment, was accompanied by an armed escort of multinational warships, its passageway cleared beneath an umbrella of maritime patrol and anti-submarine warfare aircraft to ensure its safety. Such heightened defensive postures are now commonplace, while an increasing pace of international operations is de rigueur for NATO. Nine multinational battle groups have been posted along the alliance’s “eastern flank,” where NATO member states border Russia and its ally, Belarus. Dozens of allied fighter aircraft patrol the skies from the Baltic to the Black Sea, too. Only days ago, an Italian fighter shot down an apparent Russian drone that flew into Latvian airspace — and such violations are now a frequent occurrence. The goal of NATO’s activity, the official says, is deterrence. “This is a response to Russia getting more reckless along the eastern flank,” the official says. NATO forces in Europe are under the command of the Supreme Allied Commander Europe, or SACEUR — a role held by an American since the alliance was founded in 1949. The current commander is U.S. Air Force General Alexus Grynkewich. “There’s been a lot of testing, and part of our pushback to that has been to take everything that we’ve got on the eastern flank — so that’s all those forward land forces, Baltic air policing, and other bits of air policing that we had in Romania and elsewhere — and basically connect all those dots, to give SACEUR a whole lot more freedom to move things where he needs them, to act much more quickly and flexibly,” the official says. Most military analysts assess that NATO, in its entirety, enjoys a substantial qualitative edge over Russia in terms of raw military, economic, and industrial power. But that edge is largely predicated on America’s willingness to defend the alliance. The key provision in the North Atlantic Treaty’s collective defense mechanism is Article 5, which says that “an armed attack against one member in Europe or North America is considered an attack against all members,” and if invoked requires each member to assist with “such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force.” Trump has routinely called NATO “obsolete,” and has criticized its members for what he perceives as a lack of support for the U.S. in the Iran war. “I always considered NATO, where we spend Hundreds of Billions of Dollars per year protecting these same Countries, to be a one-way street — We will protect them, but they will do nothing for us, in particular, in a time of need,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social media platform in March, in a later post adding that “NATO wasn’t there when we needed them, and they won’t be there if we need them again.” Trump’s antipathy didn’t start with the Iran war, of course. After a trip to Moscow in 1987, he famously purchased a full-page newspaper ad accusing U.S. allies of free-riding, saying it was time to make “others pay for the protection we extend.” During his first term in 2018, Trump told Tucker Carlson that defending small NATO members like Montenegro wasn’t worth the risk: “They may get aggressive, and, congratulations, you’re in World War III.” Trump’s animosity toward NATO became such a cause for concern among U.S. lawmakers that in 2023, Congress passed a law unequivocally preventing the president from withdrawing from the alliance without the approval of two-thirds of the Senate. Still, if Russia wants to provoke a political crisis within the alliance, something like a “limited incursion” against a small NATO member — invading and occupying a part of Latvia or Estonia, which border Russia proper — could fit the bill. “If you look at prospective scenarios, the higher likelihood is a limited incursion and it’s closer to us timeline wise,” Kofman, the military expert, says. “A ‘bite and hold’ scenario is potentially more problematic, because that’s a scenario in which the Trump administration might say, ‘Well, it’s not a large-scale invasion and occupation of a member state. Europe — take care of it yourself. Why don’t you help yourself, the way you helped us in the war against Iran?’” Most frontline states are militant about the Russian threat. But there is no consensus across Europe about the danger that the Kremlin poses. Countries far from the action in Ukraine tend to be more sanguine than those that share borders with the two combatants. In some places, like Italy and Spain, a significant number of people view NATO members that warn about an “imminent threat” as unnecessarily provocative and bellicose. Such views were expressed succinctly by Marco Travaglio, the editor-in-chief of the Italian newspaper Il Fatto Quotidiano, at a prestigious conference in Puglia last month: “The Baltics are among the main provocateurs of this escalation … They’re calling the shots. Why? Because they’re aiming for World War III.” Such views are extreme but not uncommon. Meanwhile, amid Europe’s lack of solidarity, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth announced in June that the U.S. would conduct a “six-month review” of its military commitments to the continent. The review will conclude in December, and ties military commitments not only to each country’s spending on NATO, but also to support for Trump’s broader economic policies. Over the weekend, Bloomberg News reported on a so-called “loyalty test” being sent by the Trump administration to NATO members. Among the questions it asks is whether or not a country has been “publicly supportive” of Trump’s foreign policy. While European officials may endure such blatantly undiplomatic antics with tact, patience with the Americans is ebbing across the continent. Trump’s threats to annex Greenland were an especially clarion wake-up call to many who previously believed that ultimately, America was a beneficial power. That view evaporated as the U.S. president showed a readiness to use military force to seize an ally’s territory. The NATO official gives low weight to concerns about a potential split, saying that while there may have been a “shift when it comes to style,” it was part of a long-running debate about burden-sharing within the alliance. “What we’ve seen is that the U.S. is consistently committed to NATO,” the official says. “The Americans are here, each and every day.” When it was pointed out that while the Americans may be there, it doesn’t mean they will stay if the president decides not to join a European conflict, the NATO official responded simply: “That has always been the case.” “The bottom line has been consistent — administration after administration after administration — that America wants allies that are actually going to pull their weight, that are going to step up and share the responsibility fairly,” the official says. Even if the transatlantic alliance holds strong, Russia may still believe it can eke out a victory against NATO by employing the right leverage — something which may encourage Putin to act. While the war in Ukraine has taken a heavy toll on Russian industry, the country has successfully transitioned to a wartime economy, able to produce the advanced weapons it needs to carry on fighting despite years of sanctions. Ultimately, despite battlefield innovations and advances in technology, the war in Ukraine is an infantry fight. Russia has even enlisted its ally North Korea to supply frontline troops — the number of which may climb to as many as 50,000 this year. Manpower has become a critical issue for both Ukraine and Russia. More than a million men have been killed and wounded in the fighting. While some observers point gleefully at the carnage inflicted on Russia, its forces continue to advance in eastern Ukraine, and its missiles and drones continue to fall on Ukrainian cities. “The Russian military is not as degraded from this war as we would like it to be,” Kofman says. “It has suffered a tangible degradation in quality, but it has also expanded significantly over the course of the war in size, in strike capabilities, mass employment of drones, and in defense industrial production capacity. The narrative about the war substantially degrading Russian forces is only partially true.” The biggest problem for NATO, should Russia decide to use its military beyond Ukraine, is air defense. Russia is producing around 60 Iskander ballistic missiles per month, even under sanctions, and last month its military launched a record 128 ballistic missiles against targets in Ukraine, according to that country’s Military Intelligence Directorate. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said that his country lacks the anti-missile interceptors needed to counter the threat, calling on allies to provide at least 300 Patriot missiles to save lives and protect cities. But advanced missile interceptors were already in short supply, and the war in Iran has only made things worse. The U.S. fired an estimated 1,500 Patriot missiles to shoot down Iranian drones and missiles during 39 days of active conflict, leaving just 800 in its stockpiles. Lockheed delivered around 600 Patriot interceptors last year, and plans to increase production. But refilling stockpiles will take years. In a conflict with NATO, the possibility that Russian ballistic missiles would be turned against undefended cities is a serious concern — and could determine the course of a conflict, even aside from any military outcomes. “I want to be clear again — the conversation is not about ‘win or lose,’ because that is a simplistic way to interpret this. We won’t ‘lose,’ but that’s not the point,” Kofman says. “The point is that the cost of a conflict may be unnecessarily or unacceptably high for our allies and our own forces if we do not learn the right lessons and make the correct adaptations.” Simply put, Europe is unprepared for the kind of war already seen in Ukraine. “Russia has also been scaling up production of ballistic missiles, and I think it has certainly identified a major weakness in NATO’s way of war, and that is the dearth of interceptors,” says Franz-Stefan Gady, a defense analyst and consultant who specializes in the future of high-intensity warfare. “Air defense, or the role of air defense, is very often primarily given to the air forces, and is tied to achieving air superiority — that is, NATO aircraft in the event of a major conflict would actually try to destroy TELs, transporter erector launchers, and missiles on site. So it’s a ‘shoot the archer’ strategy.” This means that to protect European cities, the allies would have to carry out a massive air campaign inside Russia itself. “But that would necessitate the United States actually stepping in, and stepping in quite early,” Gady says. “Because only the U.S. Air Force currently is effectively capable of conducting what’s called ‘suppression of enemy air defense’ and ‘destruction of enemy air defense’ campaigns — which would be the first step in order to breach, essentially, Russian defenses and go TEL-hunting so to speak, and to hit other launch sites.” The NATO official says member states are keenly aware of the challenge posed by long-range precision-strike munitions, such as drones and ballistic missiles. Trending Stories “A key piece of this — and this has really been kind of top of the agenda for the last year or so, and will continue to be — is working more and more with industry to make sure that we are getting what we need; that industry knows what we need, and that it’s getting to us faster,” the official says. Gady agrees, but is concerned about the pace of change. “That’s not an issue that can only be solved through capability. That also requires years of training, and requires magazine depth that is sufficient, and the right types of missiles. So that creates a window of vulnerability over the next couple of years, especially with low interceptor stocks in Europe and the United States,” Gady says. “Because there isn’t really a good answer to Russian ballistic missiles currently.”

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    Trump Has Opened the Door for Putin to Make a Move on NATO President Donald Trump is providing Russian President Vladimir Putin a window of opportunity to break apart NATO, analysts fear, even as the Kremlin searches for an elusive path to victory in its grinding war of attrition…

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Something Changed in a Single Day: Trump Claimed Backchannel Talks With the IRGC, Then Said No Talks Were Happening at All

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President Donald Trump has made another bombastic pronouncement amid the war with Iran. On Tuesday, he shared a map labeling the Strait of Hormuz “NEW U.S. Territory,” via his Truth Social platform. Iran has continued to stress that the strait will not be fully reopened until Washington meets its slew of demands, including ending its blockade on Iranian shipping and scrapping oil sanctions.

Ship Hit in Strait Just hours before Trump’s latest post, a vessel exiting the Strait of Hormuz was struck by an unidentified projectile off the coast of Oman. According to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations, the ship’s engine room was hit, resulting in a “crew casualty.

” Officials did not immediately identify the vessel or its cargo. The Omani Coast Guard said it was assisting the remaining crew as authorities investigated the incident. Iran’s Stranglehold on the Strait Since the United States and Israel launched attacks on the Islamic Republic on February 28, Iran has tightly restricted shipping through the waterway.

Prior to the war, around one-fifth of globally traded oil passed through Hormuz. Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf said Tuesday that Tehran would maintain its restrictions until Washington fulfilled what Iran considers its commitments under the interim U.

S.-Iran agreement struck in June. Those demands include lifting the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports, releasing frozen Iranian assets, removing sanctions on Iranian oil and gas exports, and ending U.S. military threats and operations. “Until the United States fulfills its commitments under the agreement … the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen,” Qalibaf said.

Blockade Vs. Territory Asked in the Oval Office on Monday about his earlier suggestion that Hormuz could become American territory, the president said he liked the idea. “We control it with the blockade, and I like the idea of declaring it a territory,” Trump told reporters, adding: “We have total control over the strait now.

” Washington’s blockade is hitting Iranian shipping hard. U.S. Central Command said Monday that American forces had redirected 64 commercial vessels, disabled three ships, and boarded another two as part of the renewed blockade. That does not mean Washington has eliminated Iran’s ability to disrupt other shipping.

Tuesday’s unexplained attack came after a string of strikes on vessels attempting to navigate the area. Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi also rejected Trump’s territorial claim on Tuesday, describing it as a “delusion.” Tehran has repeatedly maintained that it, rather than Washington, will determine when normal passage through the strait resumes.

Iran and Oman Near Deal Complicating matters further are separate negotiations between Iran and Oman, the two countries sitting on opposite sides of the strait. Iran said Monday that the two governments were finalizing details of an agreement concerning shipping routes through Hormuz.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said an “understanding has been reached regarding the map of the transit route.” Trump responded by threatening Oman, a longstanding U.S. partner, telling Fox News that Washington would “bomb the shit out of them” if Muscat “gets in the way.

” The diplomatic clock has already run down. The 60-day negotiating period established by the June memorandum between Washington and Tehran expired on Monday without a broader agreement being reached. Trump has said the United States is not seeking an extension.

Tehran Likely to Double Down Columnist Melanie Phillips slammed President Trump’s plans for a ceasefire last month, complaining that it had given Tehran the upper hand and showed that “everyone can now see America is not prepared to make the sacrifices necessary to defend itself.

” Trump has claimed Iran has essentially lost this war and that the blockade is massively damaging its economy. However, he has also instructed his team to pursue a “low-key” approach to talks. On July 7, Trump said the agreement was “over”, while Iran’s Foreign Ministry said it was “suspended” the following week.

“They should put up the white flag of surrender,” Trump told Fox News on Monday, claiming that backchannel talks with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) were ongoing. The IRGC has denied these claims. On Tuesday, Trump dramatically changed his tune, stating that no talks with Iran were ongoing, and that no discussions were scheduled.

About the Author: Georgia Gilholy Georgia Gilholy is a journalist based in the United Kingdom who has been published in Newsweek, The Times of Israel, and the Spectator. Gilholy writes about international politics, culture, and education.

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Iran War Day 172: ‘No Talks’ Scheduled with Tehran, Trump Says

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Iran War Day 172: ‘No Talks’ Scheduled with Tehran, Trump Says In a post on Truth Social Tuesday President Donald Trump said that “there are no talks or conversations going on, or scheduled, with the Islamic Republic of Iran.” Trump added that the U.

S. naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz “remains in full force and effect” and that the waterway “is open and operating.” In a separate post, Trump published an image labelling the strait as “NEW U.S. Territory.” Only six commodity ships transited the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, according to Kpler data cited by Reuters.

Iran’s Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said Tuesday, Until the commitments made by the United States in the memorandum of understanding, including the lifting of the blockade, the release of frozen assets, the lifting of oil sanctions, the end of threats and military operations on all fronts, and other conditions to which America agreed in the memorandum, are implemented, the strait will not be opened.

The deadline for that memorandum of understanding—signed by Trump and Iran’s president in June—expired on Monday. The two nations had agreed to negotiate a final peace deal over a 60-day period, but the framework agreement quickly fell apart, and the deadline seemingly wasn’t extended, despite mixed reporting.

Subscribe Today Get daily emails in your inbox Ghalibaf will lead a “high-level parliamentary delegation” to Iraq on Wednesday, Iran’s Fars news agency reported. The visit comes as pro-Iran militia groups face a September 30 deadline set by the Iraqi government to disarm.

Syria condemned reported Israeli strikes against Abu Duhur airbase on Tuesday, while the U.S. expressed concern over the incident. U.S. Ambassador to Turkey and special envoy for Syria and Iraq Tom Barrack wrote on X that “we are deeply concerned that the confirmed Israeli airstrikes on Abu al-Duhur Airbase constitute an unnecessary escalation that does not advance regional stability.

” The price of Brent Crude oil was over $91 per barrel on Tuesday morning. AAA recorded the national average price of regular gas at $4.07.

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Trump says no talks planned with Iran, Tehran says Strait of Hormuz still shut

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U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday no talks were taking place with Iran and none were scheduled, and he insisted that the Strait of Hormuz was open, contradicting an earlier Iranian assertion that the critical waterway remained shut to shipping.

The receding prospects of a deal to end the nearly six-month conflict drove up oil prices again on Tuesday, while stock markets sagged and borrowing costs for major economies including the U.S. hit multi-decade highs, amid concerns about the long-term inflationary and fiscal impact of the crisis.

A temporary ceasefire agreement expired on Monday and a senior Iranian official told Reuters that his country was moving to a “fully offensive” military posture due to the diplomatic stalemate, though there were no reports of fresh strikes by either side on Tuesday.

“There are no talks or conversations going on, or scheduled, with the Islamic Republic of Iran,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social on Tuesday. “The Naval Blockade remains in full force and effect. The Hormuz Strait is open and operating. All water mines have been removed or detonated,” he added.

On Monday, Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law and special envoy, had sounded an optimistic note, saying talks with Iran were still under way and were “probably more robust” than they had ever been. Despite Trump's typically ebullient remarks about the situation in the Gulf, preliminary shipping data on Tuesday showed ship crossings via the Strait of Hormuz were still in single digits on Monday.

The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations said it received a report on Tuesday that a vessel was struck by an unknown projectile while transiting outbound in the Strait of Hormuz, causing engine room damage and a crew casualty. The remaining crew were being assisted by the Omani Coast Guard, according to the report.

Top Iranian negotiator Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said in comments published by state media that the strait would remain shut until the U.S. met the conditions of an interim deal signed with Iran in June. These conditions include the U.S. lifting its blockade of Iranian ports, lifting oil sanctions, releasing Tehran's frozen assets, and ending threats and military operations on all fronts, Qalibaf told parliament.

A memorandum of understanding signed on June 17 had set a 60-day time frame for a broader deal on Iran's nuclear programme and U.S. sanctions. That period elapsed on Monday and Trump said he had no plans to extend it. The agreement, which declared the “immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts,” had quickly unravelled over a dispute about control of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas flowed before the war.

Both Trump and Tehran have frequently switched between threats and more emollient rhetoric as they seek a way out of the crisis, which erupted when the U.S. and Israel launched strikes against Iran on February 28. Iran remains open to dialogue with the U.

S. but does not confuse negotiations with surrender, Mohammad Mokhber, an adviser to Iran's supreme leader, said on Tuesday, according to the semi-official Fars news agency. Mokhber said military pressure and sanctions would not break Iran's resolve and that the country would defend its security, dignity and allies while not seeking war.

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Iran has bombed U.S. military bases and infrastructure in countries including Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. Benchmark Brent crude oil futures have surged during the conflict, hitting a peak of $126 a barrel, roughly 75% above pre-war levels.

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Iran’s gutted ranks leave loyalists filling critical posts — with one glaring problem

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Iran is rebuilding the upper ranks of its military and security establishment after months of wartime losses by turning largely to familiar veterans — figures whose careers in some cases stretch back to the 1979 Islamic Revolution, the Iran-Iraq War and previous domestic crackdowns.

The appointments follow the deaths of several senior Iranian commanders in U.S.-Israeli strikes since the war began Feb. 28, The National reported Aug. 11. For Washington, the stakes go beyond who fills the vacancies. The reshuffle puts veteran hardliners atop institutions that shape Iran’s military operations, national-security policy and internal security at a time of renewed confrontation with the United States.

The appointments do not prove that Tehran has run out of younger commanders or that loyalty was the sole criterion, but the reliance on figures whose careers stretch back decades is raising a broader question for U.S. policymakers: whether wartime losses have left Iran increasingly dependent on a smaller circle of trusted ideologues — potentially narrowing the room for compromise even as Washington tries to pressure Tehran back toward a deal.

IRAN’S REVOLUTIONARY GUARD SIDELINES PRESIDENT AS MILITARY GRIP EXPANDS Former American prisoner Morad Tahbaz, who was detained in Iran in 2018 and freed in a U.S.-Iran prisoner exchange in September 2023, told Fox News Digital that he views the latest appointments as evidence of Tehran's continued dependence on longtime loyalists.

"They keep rotating the same old people, most of whom are fairly inept but are loyal to the Khamenei father and son," Tahbaz told Fox News Digital. The reshuffle spans Iran's conventional military, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, its naval arm, the Basij paramilitary force and the country's highest national-security council.

Iran's state-run IRNA reported Aug. 10 that Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei appointed Ali Abdollahi chief of staff of the Armed Forces, Kioumars Heydari his deputy, Ahmad Vahidi commander of the IRGC, Mostafa Izadi deputy IRGC commander, Ali Ozmaei commander of the IRGC Navy and Hossein Taeb head of the Basij.

The previous day, former IRGC commander Mohsen Rezaei, 71, was named secretary of the Supreme National Security Council and Khamenei's representative on the powerful body. Reuters reported Aug. 10 that the SNSC coordinates Iran's security and foreign policy and that Rezaei replaced Mohammad Baqer Zolqadr, who had been appointed secretary in late March following the death of his predecessor, Ali Larijani.

The appointments do not establish that Iran has run out of younger or less familiar commanders. But the reliance on longtime military and security figures has fueled assessments that wartime losses have narrowed the regime's pool of officials it regards as sufficiently experienced and politically trustworthy.

Erfan Fard wrote for the Middle East Forum on Aug. 15 that Khamenei was not promoting a new generation but turning to veterans of the revolution, the Iran-Iraq War, intelligence operations and domestic repression, arguing that an architecture based on "institutional memory, loyalty, and coercive power" was taking shape.

The Foundation for Defense of Democracies argued in an Aug. 12 policy brief that the reshuffle looked "less like renewal than a game of musical chairs among regime veterans." The appointments also formalized the position of Ahmad Vahidi, a veteran hardliner who had already emerged near the center of wartime decision-making.

Vahidi was a major player in shaping Tehran's wartime policy and had risen through the IRGC's early intelligence and external-operations apparatus before later serving as defense and interior minister. As interior minister, Vahidi oversaw police units involved in the crackdown on the 2022 protests.

IRNA confirmed Aug. 10 that Khamenei promoted Vahidi to major general and formally appointed him commander-in-chief of the IRGC. WHO IS AHMAD VAHIDI? IRAN’S NEW IRGC CHIEF TIED TO GLOBAL ATTACKS AND ‘DEATH TO AMERICA’ IDEOLOGY Hossein Taeb: The intelligence veteran returns to the Basij to build a ‘20-million-strong Basij force.

’ One of the most closely watched appointments is Hossein Taeb, the cleric and veteran security official tapped to lead the Basij, the IRGC's volunteer paramilitary force that has repeatedly been used against domestic dissent. The National reported that the Basij has been used to suppress internal dissent, while The Times reported Aug.

12 that the force is embedded in neighborhoods, universities, workplaces, factories, ministries and mosques and has played a central role in suppressing successive uprisings. For Tahbaz, Taeb's return is personal. Tahbaz was detained in 2018, while Taeb was leading the IRGC Intelligence Organization.

"Ta’eb is extremely close to Mojtaba Khamenei but was very unceremoniously fired from his former position as head of the IRGC Intelligence Organization," Tahbaz told Fox News Digital. "He was personally responsible for my and my colleagues' arrests and detentions.

He lives and breathes conspiracy theories." The Times reported Aug. 12 that Taeb and Mojtaba Khamenei's relationship dates back more than four decades and that both served in the Habib Battalion during the Iran-Iraq War. The newspaper also reported that IRGC intelligence arrested environmentalists and dual nationals during Taeb's tenure.

Taeb previously commanded the Basij before moving into IRGC intelligence. The Times reported that months after the disputed 2009 election, the Guards' intelligence division was elevated into an independent organization with Taeb as its first chief. Taeb's earlier leadership of the Basij also drew U.

S. sanctions. In a Sept. 29, 2010 Treasury Department fact sheet, the U.S. government said that while Taeb commanded the Basij during the June 2009 election, forces under his command participated in "beatings, murder, and arbitrary arrests and detentions of peaceful protestors.

" According to IRNA, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf congratulated Taeb on his appointment as head of the Basij Organization, saying his tenure could mark a new chapter for the volunteer force. Ghalibaf said the Basij now needs a more comprehensive and forward-looking approach and argued that Taeb’s appointment by the supreme leader could help advance what he described as one of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini’s longstanding goals: building a 20-million-strong Basij force.

UN WATCHDOG SLAMS POTENTIAL ELECTION OF IRAN TO PANEL WITH HUMAN RIGHTS SWAY: 'LUNATICS RUNNING THE ASYLUM' Mohsen Rezaei: Back at the center after four decades Few appointments better illustrate the return of Iran's old guard than Mohsen Rezaei, who was named secretary of the Supreme National Security Council.

Reuters reported Aug. 10 that Rezaei joined the IRGC shortly after the 1979 revolution, became its commander in 1981 at age 27 and led the force for 16 years, including through most of the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War. He later served as secretary of Iran's Expediency Discernment Council for more than two decades and as vice president for economic affairs from 2021 to 2023 under President Ebrahim Raisi.

Now, at 71, he is secretary of the SNSC and Khamenei's representative on the body. Beni Sabti, an Iran expert at Israel's Institute for National Security Studies, argued that bringing back longtime figures such as Rezaei reflects weakness rather than renewal.

"This is, again, another evidence that they don't have anyone else," Sabti told Fox News Digital. "So they have to bring him out again from the desk and put him somewhere. These are the guys that they have." Rezaei and Vahidi were also among six people for whom INTERPOL authorized Red Notices requested by Argentina in 2007 in connection with the investigation into the 1994 bombing of the AMIA Jewish community center in Buenos Aires.

INTERPOL said in November 2007 that its General Assembly upheld the publication of notices for six individuals, including Ahmad Vahidi and Mohsen Rezaei, after Iran challenged Argentina's requests. Sabti argued that Rezaei's re-emergence is particularly telling because Tehran's decision-making circle has become less ideologically diverse.

"Today, there is only one opinion, and this is the main problem," Sabti said. "This is why you think that there is unity and the system is stronger. No, it's not stronger. Actually, it's weaker also because of that." TRADE VESSEL STRUCK BY PROJECTILE IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ AMID US-IRAN TALKS Ali Abdollahi: A wartime commander takes the top military job Ali Abdollahi was elevated to chief of staff of Iran's Armed Forces, putting him at the top of the country's military command structure.

IRNA confirmed the appointment Aug. 10. Abdollahi had previously commanded the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, Iran's joint operational command responsible for coordinating its armed forces in wartime, according to Iran International on Aug. 10.

His appointment also comes amid an effort to integrate the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters more closely with the Armed Forces General Staff. Le Monde reported Aug. 11 that Abdollahi's task includes completing that integration in an effort to further centralize command and coordination.

Fard argued in his Aug. 15 Middle East Forum analysis that Abdollahi's elevation exemplifies Tehran's reliance on longstanding revolutionary-security figures rather than a generational break. FREED AMERICAN REVEALS BRUTAL IRAN PRISON ORDEAL, WARNS HOSTAGES FACE GREATER DANGER Kioumars Heydari: The regular army moves closer to the center Former Army Ground Forces commander Kioumars Heydari was appointed deputy chief of staff of the Armed Forces, bringing a senior officer from Iran's conventional military into the new command structure.

The National reported that Heydari formerly commanded the Army Ground Forces and has held senior positions in Iran's regular army, known as the Artesh. IRNA independently confirmed his appointment. His inclusion also demonstrates that the reshuffle is not limited to the IRGC.

Fard argued in the Middle East Forum that Heydari's previous public rhetoric surrounding protest suppression indicates that Tehran has increasingly integrated the regular army into its domestic-security posture. Mostafa Izadi: Another veteran rises inside the IRGC Mostafa Izadi was appointed Vahidi's deputy, putting another longtime commander near the top of the IRGC hierarchy.

IRNA confirmed Izadi's appointment Aug. 10, while The National described him Aug. 11 as a veteran commander who has held a number of senior positions in Iran's military and security establishment. Iran International reported that Izadi previously commanded the Cyber and New Threats Headquarters within the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters.

IRAN HARDLINER BEHIND US DEAL WARNS TEHRAN WON’T HONOR AGREEMENT IF TRUMP FAILS TO DELIVER Ali Ozmaei: A new commander at one of Iran's most sensitive fronts Rear Adm. Ali Ozmaei was appointed commander of the IRGC Navy, putting him in charge of a force central to Iran's military posture in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz.

The National reported Aug. 11 that Ozmaei replaced Alireza Tangsiri, who was killed in an Israeli airstrike in March, and that the IRGC Navy is responsible for Iran's military operations in the Gulf and around the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian state media also highlighted Ozmaei's longstanding maritime experience.

IRNA reported Aug. 11 that Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf praised Ozmaei's years in maritime defense and his familiarity with the current conflict and the Strait of Hormuz. The appointment came one day before Rezaei said the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed unless the United States changed its behavior and accepted Iran's conditions.

Reuters reported that Rezaei said Washington would have to end the war and unfreeze Iranian funds overseas, with other conditions relayed through mediators. Taken together, the seven personnel changes show Tehran moving to fill and reshuffle critical military and security posts after significant wartime losses.

What remains an assessment rather than an established fact is whether the identities of those chosen reveal a deeper shortage of trusted successors. Sabti said the return of veteran figures reflected what he sees as a shrinking bench of trusted officials and a less diverse decision-making circle.

Tahbaz offered a less academic version of that assessment. CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS APP "They keep rotating the same old people," he said.

Location: Tehran
Efrat Lachter