ConflictClarifier

Rastreador de la Crisis Irán-Golfo 2026
CC
Events Archive
strikeAug 16, 2026

Ukraine Exposed Weakness In Russia’s War Machine: Can Moscow Still Claim Military Superpower Status? – Analysis

Summary

Ukraine Exposed Weakness In Russia’s War Machine: Can Moscow Still Claim Military Superpower Status? – Analysis By Alex Raufoglu Key Takeaways - After more than four years of full-scale war, Ukraine has shattered Russia’s initial expectation of a quick victory through mass and stockpiles, turning the conflict into a high-tech war of attrition driven by rapid innovation—particularly in drones and electronic warfare—in which Ukraine currently holds technological momentum. - Russia’s conventional ground forces have suffered severe degradation and high losses, yet Moscow continues to adapt, scale up domestic production, absorb battlefield lessons, and rely on North Korean ammunition, missiles, and troops to fill specific gaps without full mobilization. - Neither side has decisive superiority: Ukraine compensates for manpower and material disadvantages with cheaper technology and deep strikes, while Russia retains larger overall resources, untouched nuclear forces, and growing experience; the outcome will depend heavily on sustained Western support for Ukraine and whether Russia’s costly adaptations can offset its mounting losses. When President Vladimir Putin sent his forces into Ukraine, the Kremlin appeared to be betting on a familiar axiom of European security: sheer Russian mass, backed by vast Soviet-era stockpiles and nuclear power, would overwhelm resistance. More than four years into Moscow’s full-scale invasion, that assumption has been all but obliterated. Ukraine survived, derailed Russia’s expected quick victory, and turned the conflict into a high-tech war of attrition. It has developed an innovation cycle that Joshua Huminski, senior vice president for national security and intelligence at the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress, said is moving faster than anything the US or other NATO countries are doing. Yet Moscow’s growing reliance on North Korea for ammunition, missiles, and troops should not be mistaken either for proof that Russia is collapsing — or, on the contrary, that its military will emerge from the war stronger than before, experts said. The picture they draw is more complicated. Ukraine has inflicted severe damage on Russia’s conventional forces and exposed profound failures in its planning and doctrine. At the same time, Moscow continues to adapt to the battlefield, expand weapons production, and learn from a war unlike any it had previously fought. “Russia’s conventional ground forces in Ukraine are being consistently and severely degraded,” Huminski told RFE/RL. But he warned that judging Russian military power solely through that lens would be “a mistake.” Russia’s Northern and Pacific naval fleets retain important capabilities, he said, while its strategic nuclear forces have been largely untouched and Moscow still possesses capable cyber and space assets. The question, then, may no longer simply be whether Russia remains the world’s second-most-powerful military. It is what Ukraine has exposed about the limits of Russian power — and whether adaptation can prevent those weaknesses from becoming decisive. The Failed Blitzkrieg And The Race To Adapt Russia’s problems began with its assumptions. Putin’s intelligence services, Huminski said, had portrayed Ukraine as a “house of cards” expected to collapse quickly. Instead, Ukrainian resilience, Russian operational failures, Western assistance, and rapid adaptation produced a very different war. The defense of Hostomel, outside Kyiv, where Ukrainian forces repelled elite Russian airborne troops, became an early example of how Moscow’s plans could unravel. Small-unit tactics and Western anti-tank weapons also exploited weaknesses in advancing Russian armor. Since then, the war has become a relentless contest of adaptation. Drones, electronic warfare, and long-range strikes have transformed the battlefield, making movement increasingly dangerous and helping create the heavily surveilled “kill zone” along the front. Maria Snegovaya, a senior fellow for Russia and Eurasia at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, told RFE/RL that Ukraine has built significant technological momentum and increasingly used drones to compensate, at least in part, for manpower shortages. That advantage is real, but she did not describe it as permanent. Technological momentum has shifted several times during the war, Snegovaya said. Ukraine is currently ahead in important drone technologies, but Russia has repeatedly caught up, reverse-engineered successful innovations, and developed countermeasures. The cycle is accelerating: What once took much longer is now unfolding in a matter of months. That is why neither Huminski nor Snegovaya sees the war as a simple story of Ukrainian technological brilliance overwhelming an obsolete Russian army. Both describe a far more dynamic contest: Ukraine has gained important technological momentum and exposed serious Russian weaknesses, while Russia continues to adapt and absorb battlefield lessons even as its conventional ground forces suffer severe degradation and extraordinary losses. North Korea Is Filling Gaps Moscow’s partnership with Pyongyang is perhaps the clearest illustration of the war’s extraordinary demands. North Korea has supplied ammunition and missiles and sent troops, some of whom were deployed in Russia’s Kursk region to help fight off a surprise Ukrainian incursion in 2024. But Snegovaya said Russia’s reliance on outside help must be understood alongside its enormous domestic production effort. Moscow is fighting a war of attrition in which losses extend far beyond manpower to ammunition and weapons systems. “Russia actually has been able to produce a lot,” she said, emphasizing that Moscow has “significantly scaled up its production” of systems including drones, electronic warfare equipment, air defenses, tanks, and missiles. But Russia’s industry has not solved its problem. The demands of the war are so high, Snegovaya said, that even dramatically expanded production cannot fully satisfy the battlefield’s needs or allow Russia to build up significant reserves. That helps explain North Korea’s role. Huminski also said North Korean troops help Moscow manage a politically sensitive manpower problem. Their use can hold positions and free Russian contract soldiers for other tasks without requiring Putin to undertake a politically risky full-scale mobilization. This is therefore neither simple military collapse nor evidence of an effortless Russian resurgence. Russia is using foreign partners to fill specific gaps while straining to sustain and expand its own military-industrial base. According to Snegovaya, the Kremlin continues to expand production facilities and prepare for a long war. But that effort comes with accumulating costs. Russia’s military-industrial sector is heavily financed by the state, while the economic strain of sustaining the war continues to grow. Ukraine Changed The Math — But Drones Have Not Won The War Ukraine entered the war with a severe conventional disadvantage. It could not match Russia tank for tank, shell for shell, or soldier for soldier. Its answer has been to change the cost equation. Cheap drones and other rapidly developed systems can threaten far more expensive equipment and, Snegovaya said, Ukraine has been able to use drones to compensate to a significant degree for shortages of manpower. But she also stressed the limits of that advantage. Drones have not made soldiers irrelevant, and Ukraine’s manpower problems remain serious. The defensive “kill zone” may help hold the line, but it has not won the war. Russia, meanwhile, is adapting its own methods. Snegovaya described a force combining Soviet-style approaches and legacy production capacity with drones, electronic warfare, and rapidly evolving battlefield practices. Russia is suffering extraordinary losses and facing mounting pressure on its economy. But it retains some asymmetric advantages, including the capacity to deploy drones in enormous numbers, experience in using them, and a vast amount of battlefield data accumulated by combat units and operators. Western countries “must not only look at what Ukraine is doing, but also pay attention to what Russia is doing,” what lessons it is learning, and how it is adapting, Huminski said. “If we don’t, and we just see that as a conventionally degraded Russian force, that could come back to haunt us in the future.” Novorossiisk Shows How The War Is Expanding Ukraine’s technological adaptation is also changing the geography of the war. In the Black Sea, Ukraine has repeatedly threatened Russian naval forces and infrastructure despite beginning the conflict without anything close to a conventional navy capable of matching Russia’s fleet. As Russian assets shifted away from Crimea, Ukraine’s ability to strike Novorossiisk, its naval hub further east, demonstrated that moving farther from the front does not guarantee safety. “The Russian fleet is definitely very much jeopardized anywhere in the Black Sea at this point,” Snegovaya said. The broader significance is strategic. Ukraine is increasingly pairing its defensive effort at the front with deep strikes against military and other targets inside Russia, seeking to impose costs beyond the battlefield. Snegovaya said the strikes have helped increase anxiety inside Russia and demand for the war to end. But she cautioned that public opinion plays only a limited role in the Kremlin’s decision-making. Putin, not public sentiment, remains the decisive factor. Ukraine may currently have technological momentum, she said, but Russia is continuing to respond — including with faster jet-powered drones and efforts to overcome other technological constraints. Degraded But Deadly The old measures of military power have been seriously challenged by the war. Prewar tank numbers and troop totals did not predict Russia’s failures in 2022. But neither do Russia’s enormous losses prove that it has ceased to be a formidable military power, experts cautioned. Ukraine has shattered the myth that Russian mass alone guarantees victory. It has demonstrated how resilience, rapid innovation, and relatively cheap technology can allow a smaller military to impose extraordinary costs on a much larger one. Russia, however, still has substantially greater resources than Ukraine, a large defense-industrial base, nuclear forces untouched by the war, and military capabilities extending well beyond the devastated ground formations fighting in Ukraine. That does not mean Russia is winning the process of adaptation. Snegovaya stressed that Ukraine currently has technological momentum, while Russia’s economy and military-industrial network face growing strain. Nor is there, she said, an analytical consensus on whether Russia can still meaningfully be called the world’s second most powerful military. The sustainability of Western support for Ukraine may ultimately be one of the most important variables. Ukraine has repeatedly punched above its weight, Snegovaya said, but its ability to sustain the fight remains tied in important ways to outside financial, technological, intelligence, and military support. Huminski’s broader conclusion is that Russia and Ukraine will emerge as two of the world’s most battle-tested and battle-hardened militaries. Ukraine has battered Russia’s military, destroyed vast quantities of its equipment, and exposed weaknesses that Moscow expected to hide behind its reputation for overwhelming power. Russia is paying heavily to adapt and is far from solving the fundamental problems the war has revealed. Whether Russia’s learning is enough to compensate for its losses — and whether Ukraine can sustain its own extraordinary pace of innovation — may go a long way toward determining the outcome of the war. - Alex Raufoglu is RFE/RL’s senior correspondent in Washington, D.C. Like what you read? Please consider supporting Eurasia Review. Thank you for your consideration!

Actors involved

USRussiaUkraine

Sources

  • RFE RLBy RFE RL

    Ukraine Exposed Weakness In Russia’s War Machine: Can Moscow Still Claim Military Superpower Status? – Analysis By Alex Raufoglu Key Takeaways - After more than four years of full-scale war, Ukraine has shattered Russia’s initial expectation of a quick victory through mass and st

See this event through different lenses

Compare how Western, Iranian, Israeli, Global South, and Pro-Peace perspectives frame this event.

Compare Perspectives

Community Notes

Community Notes

Loading notes...

Related events

strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIran
1 source

President Donald Trump has made another bombastic pronouncement amid the war with Iran. On Tuesday, he shared a map labeling the Strait of Hormuz “NEW U.S. Territory,” via his Truth Social platform. Iran has continued to stress that the strait will not be fully reopened until Washington meets its slew of demands, including ending its blockade on Iranian shipping and scrapping oil sanctions.

Ship Hit in Strait Just hours before Trump’s latest post, a vessel exiting the Strait of Hormuz was struck by an unidentified projectile off the coast of Oman. According to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations, the ship’s engine room was hit, resulting in a “crew casualty.

” Officials did not immediately identify the vessel or its cargo. The Omani Coast Guard said it was assisting the remaining crew as authorities investigated the incident. Iran’s Stranglehold on the Strait Since the United States and Israel launched attacks on the Islamic Republic on February 28, Iran has tightly restricted shipping through the waterway.

Prior to the war, around one-fifth of globally traded oil passed through Hormuz. Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf said Tuesday that Tehran would maintain its restrictions until Washington fulfilled what Iran considers its commitments under the interim U.

S.-Iran agreement struck in June. Those demands include lifting the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports, releasing frozen Iranian assets, removing sanctions on Iranian oil and gas exports, and ending U.S. military threats and operations. “Until the United States fulfills its commitments under the agreement … the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen,” Qalibaf said.

Blockade Vs. Territory Asked in the Oval Office on Monday about his earlier suggestion that Hormuz could become American territory, the president said he liked the idea. “We control it with the blockade, and I like the idea of declaring it a territory,” Trump told reporters, adding: “We have total control over the strait now.

” Washington’s blockade is hitting Iranian shipping hard. U.S. Central Command said Monday that American forces had redirected 64 commercial vessels, disabled three ships, and boarded another two as part of the renewed blockade. That does not mean Washington has eliminated Iran’s ability to disrupt other shipping.

Tuesday’s unexplained attack came after a string of strikes on vessels attempting to navigate the area. Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi also rejected Trump’s territorial claim on Tuesday, describing it as a “delusion.” Tehran has repeatedly maintained that it, rather than Washington, will determine when normal passage through the strait resumes.

Iran and Oman Near Deal Complicating matters further are separate negotiations between Iran and Oman, the two countries sitting on opposite sides of the strait. Iran said Monday that the two governments were finalizing details of an agreement concerning shipping routes through Hormuz.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said an “understanding has been reached regarding the map of the transit route.” Trump responded by threatening Oman, a longstanding U.S. partner, telling Fox News that Washington would “bomb the shit out of them” if Muscat “gets in the way.

” The diplomatic clock has already run down. The 60-day negotiating period established by the June memorandum between Washington and Tehran expired on Monday without a broader agreement being reached. Trump has said the United States is not seeking an extension.

Tehran Likely to Double Down Columnist Melanie Phillips slammed President Trump’s plans for a ceasefire last month, complaining that it had given Tehran the upper hand and showed that “everyone can now see America is not prepared to make the sacrifices necessary to defend itself.

” Trump has claimed Iran has essentially lost this war and that the blockade is massively damaging its economy. However, he has also instructed his team to pursue a “low-key” approach to talks. On July 7, Trump said the agreement was “over”, while Iran’s Foreign Ministry said it was “suspended” the following week.

“They should put up the white flag of surrender,” Trump told Fox News on Monday, claiming that backchannel talks with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) were ongoing. The IRGC has denied these claims. On Tuesday, Trump dramatically changed his tune, stating that no talks with Iran were ongoing, and that no discussions were scheduled.

About the Author: Georgia Gilholy Georgia Gilholy is a journalist based in the United Kingdom who has been published in Newsweek, The Times of Israel, and the Spectator. Gilholy writes about international politics, culture, and education.

Location: Tehran
strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIranProxy
1 source

Iran War Day 172: ‘No Talks’ Scheduled with Tehran, Trump Says In a post on Truth Social Tuesday President Donald Trump said that “there are no talks or conversations going on, or scheduled, with the Islamic Republic of Iran.” Trump added that the U.

S. naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz “remains in full force and effect” and that the waterway “is open and operating.” In a separate post, Trump published an image labelling the strait as “NEW U.S. Territory.” Only six commodity ships transited the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, according to Kpler data cited by Reuters.

Iran’s Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said Tuesday, Until the commitments made by the United States in the memorandum of understanding, including the lifting of the blockade, the release of frozen assets, the lifting of oil sanctions, the end of threats and military operations on all fronts, and other conditions to which America agreed in the memorandum, are implemented, the strait will not be opened.

The deadline for that memorandum of understanding—signed by Trump and Iran’s president in June—expired on Monday. The two nations had agreed to negotiate a final peace deal over a 60-day period, but the framework agreement quickly fell apart, and the deadline seemingly wasn’t extended, despite mixed reporting.

Subscribe Today Get daily emails in your inbox Ghalibaf will lead a “high-level parliamentary delegation” to Iraq on Wednesday, Iran’s Fars news agency reported. The visit comes as pro-Iran militia groups face a September 30 deadline set by the Iraqi government to disarm.

Syria condemned reported Israeli strikes against Abu Duhur airbase on Tuesday, while the U.S. expressed concern over the incident. U.S. Ambassador to Turkey and special envoy for Syria and Iraq Tom Barrack wrote on X that “we are deeply concerned that the confirmed Israeli airstrikes on Abu al-Duhur Airbase constitute an unnecessary escalation that does not advance regional stability.

” The price of Brent Crude oil was over $91 per barrel on Tuesday morning. AAA recorded the national average price of regular gas at $4.07.

Location: Tehran
strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIran
1 source

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday no talks were taking place with Iran and none were scheduled, and he insisted that the Strait of Hormuz was open, contradicting an earlier Iranian assertion that the critical waterway remained shut to shipping.

The receding prospects of a deal to end the nearly six-month conflict drove up oil prices again on Tuesday, while stock markets sagged and borrowing costs for major economies including the U.S. hit multi-decade highs, amid concerns about the long-term inflationary and fiscal impact of the crisis.

A temporary ceasefire agreement expired on Monday and a senior Iranian official told Reuters that his country was moving to a “fully offensive” military posture due to the diplomatic stalemate, though there were no reports of fresh strikes by either side on Tuesday.

“There are no talks or conversations going on, or scheduled, with the Islamic Republic of Iran,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social on Tuesday. “The Naval Blockade remains in full force and effect. The Hormuz Strait is open and operating. All water mines have been removed or detonated,” he added.

On Monday, Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law and special envoy, had sounded an optimistic note, saying talks with Iran were still under way and were “probably more robust” than they had ever been. Despite Trump's typically ebullient remarks about the situation in the Gulf, preliminary shipping data on Tuesday showed ship crossings via the Strait of Hormuz were still in single digits on Monday.

The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations said it received a report on Tuesday that a vessel was struck by an unknown projectile while transiting outbound in the Strait of Hormuz, causing engine room damage and a crew casualty. The remaining crew were being assisted by the Omani Coast Guard, according to the report.

Top Iranian negotiator Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said in comments published by state media that the strait would remain shut until the U.S. met the conditions of an interim deal signed with Iran in June. These conditions include the U.S. lifting its blockade of Iranian ports, lifting oil sanctions, releasing Tehran's frozen assets, and ending threats and military operations on all fronts, Qalibaf told parliament.

A memorandum of understanding signed on June 17 had set a 60-day time frame for a broader deal on Iran's nuclear programme and U.S. sanctions. That period elapsed on Monday and Trump said he had no plans to extend it. The agreement, which declared the “immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts,” had quickly unravelled over a dispute about control of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas flowed before the war.

Both Trump and Tehran have frequently switched between threats and more emollient rhetoric as they seek a way out of the crisis, which erupted when the U.S. and Israel launched strikes against Iran on February 28. Iran remains open to dialogue with the U.

S. but does not confuse negotiations with surrender, Mohammad Mokhber, an adviser to Iran's supreme leader, said on Tuesday, according to the semi-official Fars news agency. Mokhber said military pressure and sanctions would not break Iran's resolve and that the country would defend its security, dignity and allies while not seeking war.

Even as Iran projects resilience in the war, its leaders are worried that a threat of more economic punishment could increase hardships, reignite unrest and further erode the Islamic Republic’s legitimacy, according to three Iranian officials. Thousands of people have been killed in the conflict, mainly in Iran and Lebanon.

Iran has bombed U.S. military bases and infrastructure in countries including Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. Benchmark Brent crude oil futures have surged during the conflict, hitting a peak of $126 a barrel, roughly 75% above pre-war levels.

Brent crude futures settled up 20 cents on Tuesday at just over $91 a barrel. For Americans who will vote in November congressional elections, gasoline prices have risen above $4 per gallon, up from less than $3 before the war, according to the automotive group AAA.

Location: Tehran
strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIranUN
1 source

Iran is rebuilding the upper ranks of its military and security establishment after months of wartime losses by turning largely to familiar veterans — figures whose careers in some cases stretch back to the 1979 Islamic Revolution, the Iran-Iraq War and previous domestic crackdowns.

The appointments follow the deaths of several senior Iranian commanders in U.S.-Israeli strikes since the war began Feb. 28, The National reported Aug. 11. For Washington, the stakes go beyond who fills the vacancies. The reshuffle puts veteran hardliners atop institutions that shape Iran’s military operations, national-security policy and internal security at a time of renewed confrontation with the United States.

The appointments do not prove that Tehran has run out of younger commanders or that loyalty was the sole criterion, but the reliance on figures whose careers stretch back decades is raising a broader question for U.S. policymakers: whether wartime losses have left Iran increasingly dependent on a smaller circle of trusted ideologues — potentially narrowing the room for compromise even as Washington tries to pressure Tehran back toward a deal.

IRAN’S REVOLUTIONARY GUARD SIDELINES PRESIDENT AS MILITARY GRIP EXPANDS Former American prisoner Morad Tahbaz, who was detained in Iran in 2018 and freed in a U.S.-Iran prisoner exchange in September 2023, told Fox News Digital that he views the latest appointments as evidence of Tehran's continued dependence on longtime loyalists.

"They keep rotating the same old people, most of whom are fairly inept but are loyal to the Khamenei father and son," Tahbaz told Fox News Digital. The reshuffle spans Iran's conventional military, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, its naval arm, the Basij paramilitary force and the country's highest national-security council.

Iran's state-run IRNA reported Aug. 10 that Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei appointed Ali Abdollahi chief of staff of the Armed Forces, Kioumars Heydari his deputy, Ahmad Vahidi commander of the IRGC, Mostafa Izadi deputy IRGC commander, Ali Ozmaei commander of the IRGC Navy and Hossein Taeb head of the Basij.

The previous day, former IRGC commander Mohsen Rezaei, 71, was named secretary of the Supreme National Security Council and Khamenei's representative on the powerful body. Reuters reported Aug. 10 that the SNSC coordinates Iran's security and foreign policy and that Rezaei replaced Mohammad Baqer Zolqadr, who had been appointed secretary in late March following the death of his predecessor, Ali Larijani.

The appointments do not establish that Iran has run out of younger or less familiar commanders. But the reliance on longtime military and security figures has fueled assessments that wartime losses have narrowed the regime's pool of officials it regards as sufficiently experienced and politically trustworthy.

Erfan Fard wrote for the Middle East Forum on Aug. 15 that Khamenei was not promoting a new generation but turning to veterans of the revolution, the Iran-Iraq War, intelligence operations and domestic repression, arguing that an architecture based on "institutional memory, loyalty, and coercive power" was taking shape.

The Foundation for Defense of Democracies argued in an Aug. 12 policy brief that the reshuffle looked "less like renewal than a game of musical chairs among regime veterans." The appointments also formalized the position of Ahmad Vahidi, a veteran hardliner who had already emerged near the center of wartime decision-making.

Vahidi was a major player in shaping Tehran's wartime policy and had risen through the IRGC's early intelligence and external-operations apparatus before later serving as defense and interior minister. As interior minister, Vahidi oversaw police units involved in the crackdown on the 2022 protests.

IRNA confirmed Aug. 10 that Khamenei promoted Vahidi to major general and formally appointed him commander-in-chief of the IRGC. WHO IS AHMAD VAHIDI? IRAN’S NEW IRGC CHIEF TIED TO GLOBAL ATTACKS AND ‘DEATH TO AMERICA’ IDEOLOGY Hossein Taeb: The intelligence veteran returns to the Basij to build a ‘20-million-strong Basij force.

’ One of the most closely watched appointments is Hossein Taeb, the cleric and veteran security official tapped to lead the Basij, the IRGC's volunteer paramilitary force that has repeatedly been used against domestic dissent. The National reported that the Basij has been used to suppress internal dissent, while The Times reported Aug.

12 that the force is embedded in neighborhoods, universities, workplaces, factories, ministries and mosques and has played a central role in suppressing successive uprisings. For Tahbaz, Taeb's return is personal. Tahbaz was detained in 2018, while Taeb was leading the IRGC Intelligence Organization.

"Ta’eb is extremely close to Mojtaba Khamenei but was very unceremoniously fired from his former position as head of the IRGC Intelligence Organization," Tahbaz told Fox News Digital. "He was personally responsible for my and my colleagues' arrests and detentions.

He lives and breathes conspiracy theories." The Times reported Aug. 12 that Taeb and Mojtaba Khamenei's relationship dates back more than four decades and that both served in the Habib Battalion during the Iran-Iraq War. The newspaper also reported that IRGC intelligence arrested environmentalists and dual nationals during Taeb's tenure.

Taeb previously commanded the Basij before moving into IRGC intelligence. The Times reported that months after the disputed 2009 election, the Guards' intelligence division was elevated into an independent organization with Taeb as its first chief. Taeb's earlier leadership of the Basij also drew U.

S. sanctions. In a Sept. 29, 2010 Treasury Department fact sheet, the U.S. government said that while Taeb commanded the Basij during the June 2009 election, forces under his command participated in "beatings, murder, and arbitrary arrests and detentions of peaceful protestors.

" According to IRNA, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf congratulated Taeb on his appointment as head of the Basij Organization, saying his tenure could mark a new chapter for the volunteer force. Ghalibaf said the Basij now needs a more comprehensive and forward-looking approach and argued that Taeb’s appointment by the supreme leader could help advance what he described as one of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini’s longstanding goals: building a 20-million-strong Basij force.

UN WATCHDOG SLAMS POTENTIAL ELECTION OF IRAN TO PANEL WITH HUMAN RIGHTS SWAY: 'LUNATICS RUNNING THE ASYLUM' Mohsen Rezaei: Back at the center after four decades Few appointments better illustrate the return of Iran's old guard than Mohsen Rezaei, who was named secretary of the Supreme National Security Council.

Reuters reported Aug. 10 that Rezaei joined the IRGC shortly after the 1979 revolution, became its commander in 1981 at age 27 and led the force for 16 years, including through most of the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War. He later served as secretary of Iran's Expediency Discernment Council for more than two decades and as vice president for economic affairs from 2021 to 2023 under President Ebrahim Raisi.

Now, at 71, he is secretary of the SNSC and Khamenei's representative on the body. Beni Sabti, an Iran expert at Israel's Institute for National Security Studies, argued that bringing back longtime figures such as Rezaei reflects weakness rather than renewal.

"This is, again, another evidence that they don't have anyone else," Sabti told Fox News Digital. "So they have to bring him out again from the desk and put him somewhere. These are the guys that they have." Rezaei and Vahidi were also among six people for whom INTERPOL authorized Red Notices requested by Argentina in 2007 in connection with the investigation into the 1994 bombing of the AMIA Jewish community center in Buenos Aires.

INTERPOL said in November 2007 that its General Assembly upheld the publication of notices for six individuals, including Ahmad Vahidi and Mohsen Rezaei, after Iran challenged Argentina's requests. Sabti argued that Rezaei's re-emergence is particularly telling because Tehran's decision-making circle has become less ideologically diverse.

"Today, there is only one opinion, and this is the main problem," Sabti said. "This is why you think that there is unity and the system is stronger. No, it's not stronger. Actually, it's weaker also because of that." TRADE VESSEL STRUCK BY PROJECTILE IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ AMID US-IRAN TALKS Ali Abdollahi: A wartime commander takes the top military job Ali Abdollahi was elevated to chief of staff of Iran's Armed Forces, putting him at the top of the country's military command structure.

IRNA confirmed the appointment Aug. 10. Abdollahi had previously commanded the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, Iran's joint operational command responsible for coordinating its armed forces in wartime, according to Iran International on Aug. 10.

His appointment also comes amid an effort to integrate the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters more closely with the Armed Forces General Staff. Le Monde reported Aug. 11 that Abdollahi's task includes completing that integration in an effort to further centralize command and coordination.

Fard argued in his Aug. 15 Middle East Forum analysis that Abdollahi's elevation exemplifies Tehran's reliance on longstanding revolutionary-security figures rather than a generational break. FREED AMERICAN REVEALS BRUTAL IRAN PRISON ORDEAL, WARNS HOSTAGES FACE GREATER DANGER Kioumars Heydari: The regular army moves closer to the center Former Army Ground Forces commander Kioumars Heydari was appointed deputy chief of staff of the Armed Forces, bringing a senior officer from Iran's conventional military into the new command structure.

The National reported that Heydari formerly commanded the Army Ground Forces and has held senior positions in Iran's regular army, known as the Artesh. IRNA independently confirmed his appointment. His inclusion also demonstrates that the reshuffle is not limited to the IRGC.

Fard argued in the Middle East Forum that Heydari's previous public rhetoric surrounding protest suppression indicates that Tehran has increasingly integrated the regular army into its domestic-security posture. Mostafa Izadi: Another veteran rises inside the IRGC Mostafa Izadi was appointed Vahidi's deputy, putting another longtime commander near the top of the IRGC hierarchy.

IRNA confirmed Izadi's appointment Aug. 10, while The National described him Aug. 11 as a veteran commander who has held a number of senior positions in Iran's military and security establishment. Iran International reported that Izadi previously commanded the Cyber and New Threats Headquarters within the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters.

IRAN HARDLINER BEHIND US DEAL WARNS TEHRAN WON’T HONOR AGREEMENT IF TRUMP FAILS TO DELIVER Ali Ozmaei: A new commander at one of Iran's most sensitive fronts Rear Adm. Ali Ozmaei was appointed commander of the IRGC Navy, putting him in charge of a force central to Iran's military posture in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz.

The National reported Aug. 11 that Ozmaei replaced Alireza Tangsiri, who was killed in an Israeli airstrike in March, and that the IRGC Navy is responsible for Iran's military operations in the Gulf and around the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian state media also highlighted Ozmaei's longstanding maritime experience.

IRNA reported Aug. 11 that Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf praised Ozmaei's years in maritime defense and his familiarity with the current conflict and the Strait of Hormuz. The appointment came one day before Rezaei said the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed unless the United States changed its behavior and accepted Iran's conditions.

Reuters reported that Rezaei said Washington would have to end the war and unfreeze Iranian funds overseas, with other conditions relayed through mediators. Taken together, the seven personnel changes show Tehran moving to fill and reshuffle critical military and security posts after significant wartime losses.

What remains an assessment rather than an established fact is whether the identities of those chosen reveal a deeper shortage of trusted successors. Sabti said the return of veteran figures reflected what he sees as a shrinking bench of trusted officials and a less diverse decision-making circle.

Tahbaz offered a less academic version of that assessment. CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS APP "They keep rotating the same old people," he said.

Location: Tehran