The Independent's journalism is supported by our readers. When you purchase through links on our site, we may earn commission. Right now, the Houthis are a bigger threat to the world economy than Iran Cheap drone technology has given the Yemeni rebels a stranglehold on global shipping pinch points in Arabian Peninsula – and the attack on Saudi Arabia’s critical East-West oil pipeline shows how else they plan to use it, says Mark Almond There is a dangerous tendency to treat the renewed conflict between Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s Houthi Shiite group as a sideshow to the simmering US-Iran war on the other side of the Arabian peninsula.

But in many ways, it is a much more de-stabilising threat than even Donald Trump’s costly conflict – whether as a general threat to world supply chains, or specifically to oil supplies, than even the blockade by Iran of the Strait of Hormuz. Yes, global supplies of oil, gas and fertiliser have been dramatically cut by the Iranian threat to Gulf shipping.

But the Red Sea is an even bigger and more varied transport corridor right up to the Suez Canal. Saudi Arabia had tried to redirect its oil export along the East-West pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. But the Houthis’ bombing of a range of pumping stations along it – as well as their ability to hit management targets in Yanbu itself – have stemmed the oil flow.

At the moment, the Houthis emphasise that they are only fighting the Saudis and their Yemeni “proxies”, but no one trusts the war against shipping to be limited to these targets. The problem for companies sending billions of dollars of Far Eastern cars and electronics through the Red Sea is that it makes more sense to hedge against the risks of losing a container ship and its expensive cargo by re-routing around Africa.

That adds two weeks or more to the transit time, but at least it is safe from drone attacks. While this secures the cargo, it is at the expense of a hike in prices to the consumer. The Saudi v Houthis conflict is likely to have a broader effect on the world economy even than Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

The Houthis may operate according to their own agenda, but the Iranians and Houthis agree on the key points of strategy. The Houthis’ formidable arsenal of ballistic missiles and drones also have an Iranian source, either actual supplies or knowledge of the technology shared.

It should be a sharp warning to all commercial states – above all, the USA and China – that missile and drone technology is now available to desperately poor states. Per capita, Yemen is poorer than Haiti. Weapons of global disruption are in effect available to all – certainly to those whose geography, like the Houthis’, gives them a hold on a global pinch point.

The local consequences of the Houthis’ gaining control of the narrow Bab al-Mandab are severe. Even before this crisis, Saudi Arabia was suffering a sharp shortfall in its revenues. The Saudis have been making savage cuts. Western media might have noticed the dropping of professional partnerships with golf tournaments and New York’s Metropolitan Opera.

But the domestic projects of the Crown Prince are beginning to suffer, too. Mohammed bin Salman, the de facto ruler of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, is caught in a trap: Should he revert to the expensive but failed military strategy against the Houthis which he launched in 2015?

Or should he make a deal with them and Iran that saves the Saudi economy, but leaves his regime looking fatally weak? If the Crown Prince buys peace now, he could face more blackmail in the near future. Despite the Houthis strikes, a newly-forged alliance with Turkey and Pakistan has not yet been activated.

Saudi Arabia’s old ally, Egypt, is pondering whether it can afford sending troops to fight the Houthis. Egypt’s original military dictator, Nasser, burnt his fingers badly intervening against the Houthis’ grandparents in the 1960s. President Sisi does not need to re-learn the lesson.

President Trump has twice rebuffed the Saudi Crown Prince’s request for US military assistance. Bin Salman’s recent largesse to the Trump investment family has not been repaid with security. Only Israel seems willing to offer air support against the Yemeni group, which fired missiles at the country in the aftermath of October 7th.

But to accept Israeli help would be a terrible blow to the Saudi family as the protectors of Islam’s holiest places. The complex local rivalries and clan loyalties are what makes the global reverberations of this conflict so difficult to resolve. The United States has been revealed to be a one-shot, slow-to-reload superpower.

Thirty years ago, Washington planned to fight two major wars at once. Now it can fight a small war to stalemate. So small states and militias are left to fight it out – regardless of the consequences for the world economy. Mark Almond is the director of the Crisis Research Institute, Oxford To continue reading this article...

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US defense chiefs warn of munitions shortfall over Iran war President Donald Trump’s ‘Operation Epic Fury’ assault on Iran has cost $33.4 billion and has resulted in a strategic missile shortage, the Department of Defense’s inspector general finds President Donald Trump’s “Operation Epic Fury” assault on Iran cost $33.

4 billion in its first four months and has resulted in a munitions shortfall, according to a report by the Department of Defense’s inspector general. The 44-page report to Congress states that, between February 28 and June 30, the joint U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran saw the Trump administration spend $22.

3 billion on munitions alone. The onslaught “has resulted in strategic inventory shortfalls and revealed industrial base bottlenecks for munitions resupply,” Inspector General Platte B Moring III concludes. His report also lists the damage done to American military assets by Tehran’s retaliatory strikes, listing four F-15Es and and up to 30 MQ-9 Reaper drones as destroyed and one F-35A, seven KC-135 tanker aircraft and seven helicopters as damaged.

The F-35A plane is the first of its type to be compromised by enemy fire, according to CNBC, and would cost $92 million to replace. An F-15E, meanwhile, costs $31.1 million to produce, U.S. Air Force data indicates, putting the pricetag for replacing four at $124.

4 million. The U.S. also spent $79.2 million responding to emergencies arising from the conflict “such as evacuation-related expenses for State personnel and their family members, U.S. citizens, and eligible third-country nationals.” Damage done to U.

S. diplomatic premises in Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E. add another $184 million to the bill. Even further expense was incurred by Iranian strikes on military buildings and infrastructure in the U.S.-allied Gulf states of Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Oman and Jordan, although no cost is calculated in the report as it is not yet clear whether they will be restored and who would pay for the work.

The Independent has reached out to the Pentagon for comment. Mark Cancian of the Center for Strategic and International Studies was asked by CBS News, in response to the report’s findings, whether he believed the U.S. still had a sufficient supply of munitions to call upon.

“For a war against Iran, the answer is yes,” he answered. “The problem is a war against China. We might be able to provide enough munitions for a month, but getting on to month two or month three or four, that’s a great challenge.” Trump himself has repeatedly insisted the U.

S. has no munitions supply issues but was angered when it was reported in early August that he had confronted Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth over the matter at Camp David in Maryland, reportedly saying he thought the problem “had been fixed.” The president took to Truth Social in anger over the story, threatening the “leakers” who spoke to the press with jail.

Reuters reported around the same time that the U.S. Army had significantly depleted its stockpile of long-range missiles, using up “virtually all” of its crucial surface-to-surface weapons. Trump was back on his social media platform Monday to claim: “The United States is producing more Exquisite and Elite Weapons than at any time in our History.

“They are being delivered on a daily basis to our Forces in the Middle East, and beyond. Our Defense Company Factories are moving 24/7, while at the same time building, on average, 4 to 5 largescale brand new Plants, each! “A primary focus of this production has been Patriots, THAAD Systems, Tomahawks, and other Standard Missile Systems, of which we already have large numbers in stock.

” His unpopular war has rumbled on for another 10 weeks since the period documented by the report and shows no obvious sign of coming to an end even now, although Trump has said he is “open” to negotiations with Iran while stressing the final decision rests with him.

At least 18 U.S. soldiers have been killed and more than 750 service members injured in the conflict.

Unverified reports indicate that Houthi attacks have disrupted a major Saudi Arabian oil pipeline, with officials estimating the damage may leave up to 7 million barrels per day offline for three to five weeks, alongside claims that Houthi forces have secured strategic positions in the Bab-al-Mandab Strait.

Concurrently, Israeli officials have announced a "massive victory" against Hezbollah in Lebanon, though independent verification of the scale of this operation is pending.

Saudi Arabia vows to respond 'firmly' to Houthi attacks Houthi strikes on Saudi infrastructure have prompted more than 50 strikes by Riyadh as hostilities escalated. SANAA, Yemen: Saudi Arabia vowed on Tuesday (Sep 15) to respond "firmly" to attacks by Yemen's Houthis, after the Iran-backed fighters wounded 13 people in the kingdom in an assault using ballistic missiles and drones.

The Houthis have been engaged in renewed fighting with Saudi-backed government forces since Yemen's civil war reignited in July, when the group declared a maritime blockade on Riyadh and began targeting its ships in the Red Sea. They seized control of Yemen's Red Sea coast and the Bab al-Mandab Strait last week, which has become vital as the wider US-Iran war chokes the Strait of Hormuz.

The Houthis have also targeted the oil infrastructure of Saudi Arabia, the world's leading crude exporter, pushing oil prices above the US$100 threshold. A Houthi strike in western Yemen on Monday killed eight government soldiers, according to two military sources.

The group also claimed a new large-scale attack using "dozens of ballistic missiles and drones" against King Khalid airbase in Khamis Mushait, in southern Saudi Arabia. A Khamis Mushait resident told AFP he heard "intense blasts" which left fires burning for a "long time".

"Honestly, we couldn't sleep at all." In the early hours of Tuesday, the Saudi civil defence issued air-raid alerts in six regions, before lifting them. The Riyadh-led coalition confirmed on Tuesday there had been missile and drone attacks the previous day on Khamis Mushait, Abha and Taif, reporting 13 civilians wounded and damage to seven houses and two vehicles.

Saudi Arabia responded with more than 50 strikes, as it had the day before, according to the Houthis. The coalition said it would deal with the attacks "firmly to protect the sovereignty of the Kingdom" and would take "all necessary operational measures to deter this ...

hostile and extremist approach". While Saudi Arabia has conducted dozens of airstrikes on Houthi-held areas, it has failed so far to deter the fighters' lightning offensive. Saudi Arabia's de facto ruler Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was expected to hold talks with Egypt's President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi on Tuesday.

US media reported last week that President Donald Trump had rejected a personal request from the Saudi crown prince to intervene in the war. "NO NEGOTIATIONS" Hazem al-Assad from the Houthis' politburo said the "Yemeni response will continue and escalate as long as they (Saudi Arabia) persist in their aggression against our people".

The renewed fighting in Yemen comes as the wider regional war remains at a stalemate. But Trump on Monday said he was open to holding talks with Iran. "The failing Nation of Iran wants to make a deal, quickly and badly. I will determine whether or not the USA will choose to engage - The concept of which we are open to," Trump said on his Truth Social network.

Iran's top security chief Mohsen Rezaei responded by saying on X that "there will be no negotiations until Iran's conditions are met. That is all there is to it". Tehran has repeatedly listed demands including war reparations and the lifting of sanctions as preconditions for ending the war and its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

WIDER REGIONAL WAR A proposed meeting between Gulf states and Iran over the future of Hormuz was postponed on Monday, with Tehran accusing Riyadh of using Yemen as a pretext to delay the talks. Tehran has long supported the Houthis, a member of its anti-Israel "axis of resistance", including with weapons and technology, but has denied any role in the current war.

"Iran does not interfere in Yemeni affairs," foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei told reporters on Monday, saying the Houthis are "entirely independent actors who make their decisions based on their own interests". The Houthis seized Yemen's capital Sanaa in 2014 at the outset of the civil war, driving the government to Aden in the south.

The following year, Saudi Arabia led a coalition to intervene on the side of the government, launching wave after wave of airstrikes as the conflict escalated into one of the worst humanitarian disasters in the world. The UN's migration agency said Monday that the renewed fighting in the Arab world's poorest country had forced 93,864 people to flee their homes.