US-Iran deal should see oil and LNG begin to flow again… slowly

Asian refiners have sought alternative routes for crude shipments from Saudi Arabia's Yanbu port on the Red Sea, including via the Suez Canal and around Africa's Cape of Good Hope, after Houthi forces in Yemen stated they would impose a naval blockade.

Ship-tracking data showed at least one vessel reversing course westward and reduced transits through the Strait of Hormuz in recent days. Analysts have noted that these routes could add up to four weeks of transit time and raise freight costs compared with standard paths.

On July 20, Yemen’s Houthi movement announced a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia, accusing the kingdom of exploiting Yemeni oil resources. The Saudi-led coalition stated on July 21 that it had begun protective measures for commercial vessels in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and described the Houthi actions as piracy.

An International Crisis Group analyst assessed that disruptions to routes including the East-West pipeline and Bab el-Mandeb could raise Saudi security costs and affect global energy supplies if extended to the Strait of Hormuz.

The Houthis in Yemen have announced a blockade of Saudi Arabian shipping through Red Sea ports, including at the Bab el-Mandeb strait. The group, described as Iran-backed, stated the measure would target the top oil exporter following recent exchanges of fire.

Reports indicate this could add to existing maritime disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz linked to US-Iran confrontations.

A Reuters poll of economists conducted July 7-16 shows that most Gulf Cooperation Council economies are now projected to contract more sharply in the current year than estimated three months earlier, with median forecasts indicating declines of 8.1% for Kuwait and Qatar, 5.

1% for Bahrain, and 0.5% for the UAE. Saudi Arabia and Oman remain the only GCC economies expected to expand. The poll links the revisions to reduced export volumes through the Strait of Hormuz, higher freight costs, and weaker investor sentiment, even as oil prices have risen.