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strikeMay 19, 2026

US-Iran war: From Russia to Middle East - how India is managing to secure its crude oil supplies amid disruptions

Summary

Missiles, mines, attacks on ships, US blockade, Iran’s closure - the Strait of Hormuz has de facto been closed since the start of the Middle East conflict since late February. Several weeks later, India - an economy dependent on the world for 90% of its crude needs - has managed its oil supply situation better than most expected. With no big strategic petroleum reserves to boast of compared to economies like the US, China, and Japan, India has made use of its crude diversification strategy and strong ties with Russia to tide over one of its worst crude oil supply shocks in several years. Which is not to say that all is well when it comes to its energy supplies. The Strait of Hormuz is responsible for one-fifth of the world’s crude oil trade. But it is equally important for India’s LPG and LNG supplies, which have been hit by the supply crunch. Also Read | PM Modi’s UAE visit: How India will benefit from agreements on strategic petroleum reserves, LPG - explained Yet in all of this, crude availability is resilient. According to the government, India has around 60 days of petroleum supplies in various forms including strategic reserves. But if 20% of the world’s crude supply remains disrupted over 2.5 months of the war, where is India getting its oil from? India’s Crude Procurement Strategy According to Sumit Ritolia, Manager Modelling and Refining at Kpler, India’s crude import strategy has shifted significantly since March 2026 as Strait of Hormuz disruptions tightened Middle Eastern flows and increased freight and logistical risks. At the same time, Indian refiners have aggressively diversified toward the Atlantic Basin and non-Strait of Hormuz-linked barrels, increasing purchases from the US, Brazil, West Africa, and Venezuela to offset weaker Iraqi and Gulf flows. “The shift has not been a direct replacement of Middle Eastern barrels from a single source, but rather a broader re-optimisation of the crude slate based on availability, refinery compatibility, freight economics, and sanctions exposure. Refiners have remained more aggressive buyers of Russian and opportunistic Atlantic Basin barrels, along with bypassed flow of Saudi and UAE grades where available,” Ritolia tells TOI. As a result, India has increasingly relied on Russian and Atlantic Basin supply to reduce dependence on direct Strait of Hormuz-linked barrels while maintaining refinery throughput and export economics. Russian oil forms backbone of oil supply Russia has dominated India’s crude imports since the war with Ukraine in 2022. The Donald Trump administration's sanctions dented supplies from December 2025 to February 2026, but Russian crude still remained the highest component of India’s crude import basket. Come March 2026, with the US-Iran war, Russian oil flows to India reached levels last seen a few years ago when the latter was bagging crude at huge discounts. This time, however, Russian crude is being bought at a premium as global crude oil prices remain high. The surge in volumes has been helped by the Trump administration's decision to temporarily waive sanctions on Russian crude at sea to stabilise global crude oil prices. The waiver, first granted in March has been revised twice since. India on its part has maintained that its decision to buy crude oil is governed by energy security needs and economics of oil - waiver or no waiver. However, a waiver undeniably makes it more economically viable to bag Russian crude from all oil majors including Rosneft and Lukoil which form part of the sanctions list. And hence, in the face of Strait of Hormuz closure, Russian crude oil’s dominance has only increased. According to Sumit Ritolia, Manager Modelling and Refining at Kpler, Russian crude has remained the backbone of India’s import slate, with flows recovering back toward ~1.9–2.0 Mbd in March after easing earlier in the year. May import is around 1.9 mbd till date with overall expected to be around 1.8-1.9 mbd. Estimates based on Kpler data show that Russia has supplied over 140 million barrels of crude to India since the start of the US-Iran war. Critically, Russian crude-via Baltic, Black Sea, or Pacific routes, remains fully outside Hormuz risk. Middle East supplies through alternative routes With the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut amid the West Asia conflict, India’s crude imports in April fell to around 4.4 mbpd (from approximately 5.2 mbpd), as nearly 50% of its supplies (around 2.5 mbpd) normally transit the chokepoint. Iraqi imports dropped to nearly zero and Gulf flows were sharply curtailed, says Sourav Mitra, Partner – Oil & Gas, Grant Thornton Bharat. “In response to this, Indian refiners pivoted to a diversified mix, led by Russia ( around 30–37% or 1.5–1.7 mbpd), alongside Saudi Arabia (which was 0.65–0.70 mbpd) and the UAE (0.60–0.62 mbpd), with additional barrels coming in from Venezuela, Brazil, and minimal Iranian cargoes,” he explains. But if Hormuz is closed, through which route are the supplies from Middle East countries like the UAE and Saudi Arabia reaching India? “Middle East supplies are being rerouted through Saudi’s East-West pipeline to Yanbu (Red Sea) and the UAE’s Habshan-Fujairah pipeline, together offering significant bypass capacity, enabling flows via Yanbu to India and Fujairah to India while non-Gulf crude continues on open-ocean routes,” Mitra explains. “However, these re-routings add around 4-10 days via the Red Sea route and other longer global diversions. These increase freight costs, even as India sustains supply through diversification,” he adds. The return of Venezuela in the mix Venezuelan crude has also made a notable return to India in recent months, and this has helped partially offset the decline in Gulf-linked supply. India had stopped buying crude from Venezuela after US sanctions. However, with the Trump administration's moves in Venezuela, it is now back in India’s import basket. Venezuelan crude imports into India have risen sharply in recent months, reaching the highest levels seen in several years. In fact, as is evident from the chart above, despite supplying oil to India only in April and May so far, Venezuela has made its way into the top 5 crude oil suppliers for India since the US-Iran war began. “The increase has been driven by the opening of the oil sector in Venezuela, more availability, favorable pricing, and refiners seeking heavier replacement barrels amid ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Venezuelan grades have become particularly attractive for complex Indian refiners as they help offset the growing share of lighter crude in the import slate while supporting secondary unit utilization and middle distillate yields,” says Sumit Ritolia. Global supply crunch: India’s crude imports decline But even as it maintains adequate crude oil stocks in an uncertain global environment, India’s overall crude imports have declined in recent months. According to Kpler data, they are running roughly 700–800 kbd below the typical import levels as tighter global crude availability and ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruptions have constrained flows into Asia. “While refiners have diversified aggressively toward Russian, Venezuelan, US, and Atlantic Basin barrels, the market remains structurally tight and replacement volumes are not fully offsetting lost Middle Eastern availability,” Kpler’s Ritolia cautions. Looking ahead, the Kpler expert sees no clear visibility yet on a full normalisation of Strait of Hormuz flows. “India’s crude import mix is likely to remain broadly similar to current patterns. Russian barrels are expected to remain the backbone of the import slate, supplemented by higher Atlantic Basin and Venezuelan crude intake as refiners continue prioritising supply security, refinery optimisation, and freight economics over traditional sourcing patterns,” he concludes. Even as it looks to secure supplies amid global disruptions, India is also indirectly looking to curb demand through petrol and diesel price hikes. While helping oil marketing companies partially recover losses with crude prices above $100, the recent petrol and diesel price hikes also ends up discouraging unnecessary consumption, and hence controlling demand. Petrol and diesel prices have recently been hiked by Rs 3.90 per litre after four years of no revision. The government has also imposed a windfall gains tax to discourage refiners from exporting petrol and diesel products to secure supply for domestic needs. Also Read | Petrol, diesel price hikes: How India’s fuel price rise compares to US, China, Pakistan, UAE & other economies

Perspectives

Iranian Official

In defense of its sovereignty against US-led foreign aggression and an illegal blockade imposed since late February, Iran has asserted control over the Strait of Hormuz to counter threats including attacks on shipping and regional provocations. This act of resistance has disrupted global crude flows, compelling importers like India to rely on diversified supplies and ties with non-hegemonic partners to mitigate the impacts of external interference.

Israeli

Iran's proxy militias and naval forces have de facto sealed the Strait of Hormuz through missile strikes, mining, and shipping attacks, creating an existential energy chokehold that directly threatens Israel's survival and regional stability. This calculated escalation, backed by Tehran's broader axis of resistance, forces defensive necessities including preemptive measures to prevent wider strangulation of global crude flows. India's resilient diversification away from these Iranian-controlled routes only underscores the urgency of neutralizing such proxy-enabled threats before they trigger cascading crises.

Neutral

Reports indicate that shipping disruptions, including missile and mine activity, have affected the Strait of Hormuz since late February amid the Middle East conflict. India, which imports about 90% of its crude oil, has maintained supplies through import diversification and Russian purchases, according to government statements citing roughly 60 days of petroleum reserves in various forms. The strait also handles a portion of India’s LPG and LNG imports, which have faced constraints, while its crude sourcing has shifted since March 2026.

Western

Western and allied naval forces have executed precision operations to neutralize Iranian and proxy threats in the Strait of Hormuz, enforcing a de facto closure since late February to secure freedom of navigation and counter adversarial mining and missile activity. Despite these disruptions to 20% of global crude flows, India has sustained resilient imports through diversified sourcing and expanded Russian procurement, maintaining approximately 60 days of strategic reserves.

Pro-Peace

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the Middle East conflict has triggered a humanitarian crisis, with civilian casualties mounting from missile strikes, mining, and blockades that also sever energy lifelines for vulnerable populations in India and beyond, driving up costs for LPG and fuel essential to daily survival. India's scramble for alternative crude supplies highlights the war's ripple effects on global civilians already strained by shortages, rather than any sustainable victory. Diplomatic efforts to de-escalate and secure safe passage remain the only path to averting further loss of life and economic despair.

Global South

India has leveraged its sovereign non-aligned partnerships, notably deepening crude imports from Russia, to weather the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid US-led blockades and regional escalation that disproportionately burdens Global South economies reliant on imported energy. This pragmatic diversification exposes the limits of Western-dominated supply chains and the failure of multilateral institutions to prevent neo-colonial disruptions to critical trade routes affecting 20% of global oil flows. While India's 60-day reserves and LPG/LNG strains underscore ongoing vulnerabilities, its approach prioritizes autonomy over alignment with powers fueling the conflict.

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Sources

  • Smriti JainBy Smriti Jain

    Missiles, mines, attacks on ships, US blockade, Iran’s closure - the Strait of Hormuz has de facto been closed since the start of the Middle East conflict since late February. Several weeks later, India - an economy dependent on the world for 90% of its crude needs - has managed

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DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Iran attacked a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz early Tuesday, forcing its crew to abandon the ship, while the United States conducted yet another round of airstrikes targeting the Islamic Republic as they struggle over control of the key waterway.

The 10 consecutive nights of U.S. airstrikes haven’t compelled Tehran to loosen its grip on the strait, through which about a fifth of all crude oil and natural gas traded once passed in peacetime. Even as the U.S. and Iran inch closer to all-out war again, Iran’s interior minister traveled to Pakistan, a key mediator in the conflict, for talks.

However, it remains unclear just what new deal could be reached to end the fighting. The interim deal signed last month that was meant to end the fighting has crumbled. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has largely stalled. And as fighting intensifies, both sides have targeted civilian infrastructure relied on by millions of people.

“Iran and groups supportive of Iran may target other U.S. interests overseas or at locations associated with the United States and Americans throughout the world,” the U.S. State Department said in a new warning to Americans. The escalation has pushed oil prices higher in recent weeks.

Benchmark Brent crude traded Tuesday above $88 a barrel and regular gasoline in the U.S. climbed to an average of $4 a gallon, keeping pressure on Americans’ wallets ahead of midterm elections this fall. Meanwhile, the U.S. military identified two soldiers who were killed in Jordan in attacks that left a third person missing.

Separately, the military confirmed another death in Iraq on Saturday during the “controlled detonation” of a downed Iranian drone. President Donald Trump took to social media on Monday to warn that “Every time Iran kills an American Soldier they will pay for that killing many times over!

” Trump was planning to attend a ceremony on Tuesday evening at Dover Air Force Base, where at least one service member’s remains were due to arrive. US strikes come as ships attacked The U.S. military’s Central Command said Tuesday it targeted “Iranian military command centers, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites and air defense systems.

” It released more footage of bombings that targeted sites in Iran. “American forces remain postured and prepared to hold Iran accountable for unwarranted aggression toward civilian mariners seeking to freely and openly transit the strait,” the command said.

Iranian state media reported that explosions were heard in Fars, Hormozgan, Ilam, Kerman and Sistan and Baluchistan provinces. However, traffic through the strait has slowed to a crawl during the latest violence. Lloyd's List Intelligence said only three ships transited the strait on Sunday.

The British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center said a tanker came under attack early Tuesday in the strait off Oman, forcing the crew to abandon the vessel. Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard claimed the attack, as well as two other attacks on ships Monday in the waterway.

The route around Oman has been the one the U.S. military has encouraged ships to travel to avoid Iran’s control. The UKMTO separately reported Tuesday that another previously unknown attack on a ship took place early the previous day. Tehran also hit U.

S.-allied countries throughout the Middle East. Jordan military's said Tuesday that Iran targeted it with five drones and three missiles, all of which were shot down. Bahrain sounded its missile alert sirens Tuesday afternoon as another Iranian barrage targeted the island kingdom, which is home to the U.

S. Navy's 5th Fleet. Nearly 100 US injuries since early July The Pentagon’s chief spokesperson said nearly 100 U.S. service members have been injured since the U.S. restarted strikes on July 7, and 96% of them have returned to duty.

“The vast majority of injuries experienced were minor concussions,” Sean Parnell posted Monday on X in response to a New York Times report that the Pentagon has withheld information about troop injuries from Iranian strikes. He denied that the Pentagon was hiding data about injuries.

However, the Defense Casualty Analysis System, the military’s clearinghouse for reporting deaths and injuries in conflict, has not been updated as of Monday night with the latest attacks. Yemen rebels threaten attacks on other Mideast waterway Yemen’s Houthi rebels announced a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia on Monday.

The Houthis, who are backed by Iran, said they would block shipping between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden by targeting the Bab el-Mandeb, a maritime chokepoint like the Strait of Hormuz, in response to an attack on Sanaa International Airport last week that they blamed on Saudi Arabia.

With the Strait of Hormuz blocked, Saudi Arabia has been relying on a pipeline to the Red Sea to get millions of barrels of oil out to market. The Houthis earlier demonstrated their ability to disrupt shipping there when they targeted ships for months over the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, with over 100 vessels attacked.

Saudi Arabia’s military said it would keep the waterway open. “All Houthi threats against transiting vessels will be dealt with swiftly and firmly, as such threats are a blatant violation of international law and fall under acts of maritime piracy,” said Maj.

Gen, Turki al-Malki, a Saudi military spokesman. A glimmer of hope for diplomacy Pakistan has intensified diplomatic efforts in recent days to resuscitate the interim deal. Iranian Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni arrived in Islamabad on Monday for two days of talks with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and others.

On Sunday, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters that the U.S. is still open to negotiating with Iran but that “it has to be real.” “If the door opens to diplomacy — if the guys that want to do something productive for Iran win and take control of that system, or take control of the negotiations — that’ll be a very positive development,” Rubio said.

“That’s not where we are tonight, unfortunately.” Iranian authorities on Sunday said at least 50 people have been killed and 517 wounded in the latest rounds of U.S. strikes. Since the war began on Feb. 28, 17 U.S. service members have been killed.

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US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth posted social media images showing damage to a maritime control tower at Iran’s Chabahar port following reported US military strikes, accompanied by the caption “Iran does not control the Strait of Hormuz.” India’s Ministry of External Affairs stated that the Shahid Beheshti terminal operated by India at the port sustained no damage.

The ministry reiterated its position that civilian infrastructure should not be targeted during conflicts.

Location: Iran
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U.S. strikes Iran and Houthis threaten Saudi Arabia shipping as mediators push 10-day ceasefire - The U.S. has carried out its tenth consecutive evening of attacks against Iran. - Iran attacked a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz early Tuesday, while Houthi militants in Yemen declared a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia.

- Rystad Energy has warned about the risk of a significant rebound in oil prices. The U.S. completed a fresh round of strikes against Iran on Monday evening as Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis threatened to impose a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia, potentially opening a new front in the Middle East conflict.

The latest cycle of tit-for-tat strikes comes amid reports that regional mediators have presented Washington and Tehran with a proposal for a 10-day ceasefire, a pitch that could put last month's Memorandum of Understanding back on track. The U.S. Central Command said overnight that it had carried out another round of strikes on Iran at 9 p.

m. ET on Monday. "U.S. forces struck Iranian military command centers, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites, and air defense systems to degrade Iran's ability to continue attacking commercial vessels flowing through the Strait of Hormuz," Centcom said in a statement.

It added that commercial vessel transits through the strategically vital waterway were continuing. Centcom forces, the statement said, had facilitated the transit of around 900 commercial vessels and 450 million barrels of crude oil through the strait since early May.

Iran, meanwhile, attacked a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz early Tuesday, forcing its crew to abandon the vessel as it seeks to tighten its control over the waterway, one that typically handles around 20% of the world's oil traffic. Houthi militants in Yemen on Monday declared a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia effective immediately, a move that could substantially threaten Middle East oil supplies.

The Houthis have repeatedly threatened to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait during the U.S.-Iran war. The strait is a choke point for commercial ship traffic that connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and global markets. The militants, in a statement carried by state news, accused the Saudis of laying an "aggressive siege" against them.

Tensions escalated last week after they claimed that Riyadh had bombed Sanaa International Airport. The Saudi-led coalition in Yemen said that it would respond to the Houthis naval blockade with force, reportedly describing such threats as "a blatant violation of international law.

" 10-day ceasefire 'won't be an easy task' Oil prices rose briefly on news of the Houthi statement but later pared gains as energy market participants closely monitored the prospect of a diplomatic breakthrough. International benchmark Brent crude futures with September delivery were last seen trading 0.

5% lower at $88.77 per barrel, having surpassed $90 in the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures with August delivery, meanwhile, stood 0.4% lower at $82.88. Strategists at ING said there's some hope of de-escalation between the U.S.

and Iran given the reports that mediators are proposing a 10-day ceasefire. "This won't be an easy task," ING's Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said in a research note published Tuesday. "Large divisions remain between the US and Iran. And President Trump said the US would retaliate following the deaths of several American troops," they added.

In a post on Truth Social on Monday, President Donald Trump said: "Every time Iran kills an American Soldier they will pay for that killing many times over!" He added that this directive had been passed on to every leader in the military. Saudi Arabia oil risk Jorge León, senior vice president and head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, said the Houthis' threat puts approximately 2.

5 million barrels per day of Saudi Arabian oil at risk at a time when traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is at a standstill. "With the Gulf's primary maritime outlet largely closed, the market is increasingly dependent on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline and Red Sea terminals to maintain export flows," León said Monday in a research note.

Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline network, or Petroline, is a roughly 750-mile system that transports crude across Saudi Arabia, connecting Abqaiq on the oil-rich kingdom's eastern Gulf coast to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea. "Any disruption at Bab el-Mandeb would therefore threaten not only Saudi shipments but one of the few remaining routes capable of compensating for the severe reduction in Hormuz traffic," León said.

"If a ceasefire does not materialize and Hormuz remains largely closed while the Houthi threat to Red Sea shipping intensifies, the risk of a significant rebound in oil prices would be substantial," he added. — CNBC's Chloe Taylor and Spencer Kimball both contributed to this report.

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Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis announced Monday they would impose a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia, further throttling a global energy market already greatly restricted by Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This is why it matters and what it means for the Iran war and the global energy crisis.

It is not clear how the Houthis would carry out a maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia, its northern neighbor along the Red Sea coast, or whether it would include a return to attacks on shipping. Yemen sits on the Bab el-Mandeb strait – the southern gateway to the Red Sea – and closing that would open up a new front in the energy crisis and Iran's overarching conflict with the U.

S. With the Strait of Hormuz already disrupted, the Red Sea has become a critical alternative outlet for Gulf oil and other products. A serious disruption would mean both of the Middle East's major oil export routes are shut simultaneously. Iran's partial blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after Israel and the U.

S. attacked it on Feb. 28 disrupted most oil and other exports from the Gulf, raising prices and delivering a global energy shock. Saudi Arabia responded by diverting more than 70% of its normal daily crude exports to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Ships from Yanbu bound for Europe go north through the Suez Canal.

Those heading to Asia go south through Bab el-Mandeb. Shipments from Yanbu averaged 4 million barrels per day in recent weeks according to data from Kpler and Signal Ocean, up from around 973,000 bpd a year earlier. Total petroleum volumes transiting Bab el-Mandeb amounted to 7.

4 million bpd in June, or about 7% of global oil output, according to Kpler data, up from 4.2 million bpd last year. That has provided a lifeline for the energy market, helping to keep down global oil prices. Saudi Arabia is considering an expansion of its crude oil pipeline to the Red Sea coast, Reuters reported last week.

When the Houthis launched attacks on Red Sea shipping in November 2023, Gulf oil exports were flowing freely. The Houthis have been in a civil war against the Saudi-backed, internationally recognized government for more than a decade and have attacked Gulf neighbors with missiles and drones.

However, a 2022 truce between the country's warring sides largely held until last week, when Yemen's internationally recognized government said it had struck Sanaa airport to stop an Iranian plane landing. The Houthis said Saudi Arabia was responsible and, in response, fired missiles at Abha airport in the kingdom's mountainous southwest.

A senior Houthi official, politburo member Mohammad al-Farah, then warned in an interview on Iran's Press TV website that if the situation kept escalating, Bab el-Mandeb would be closed. The U.S. says Iran has armed, funded and trained the Houthis with help from Hezbollah.

The Houthis deny being an Iranian proxy and say they develop their own weapons. It is not clear how far the group's stance on Bab el-Mandeb and the Red Sea stems from its own strategic priorities or is being made on Iran's behalf. After Israel's genocidal campaign in Gaza, the Houthis began firing at Israel and on shipping in the Red Sea, saying they were doing so in support of Palestinians.

The attacks severely disrupted global shipping, prompting Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd and other major companies to divert around Africa – a far longer, more expensive route. Red Sea traffic has not recovered since, with traffic through the Suez Canal down 52% in 2025 versus 2023 levels and at its lowest in at least 50 years, Suez Canal Authority data shows.

A U.S.-led mission to restore free navigation in the Red Sea involved repeated strikes on Houthi targets and a campaign that shot down hundreds of drones and missiles. But some Houthi attacks continued until last summer, only ending completely with the Gaza cease-fire in October.

Last month, the Houthis said they would ban ships linked to Israel from the Red Sea after Israel renewed military attacks on Iran. However, that threat was never acted on and shipping groups Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd are resuming some Red Sea routes that they had abandoned during the Houthi attacks last year, Maersk said this month.

While Hezbollah and the Iraqi groups joined the war early with rocket and drone fire after the first U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, the Houthis had been comparatively quiet. The group's leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi said on March 5: "Our fingers are on the trigger at any moment should developments warrant it.

" Iranian commanders have repeatedly warned that the Houthis could join the war. The Houthis launched a few missile and drone attacks on Israel in late March and early April. Revolutionary Guards Quds Force commander Esmaeil Qaani said on June 1 they could choke off the Red Sea.

That may now have changed with their announcement of the blockade on Monday against Saudi Arabia in retaliation for what they called the kingdom's siege of its ports and airports, including last week's strike.