strikeJul 20, 2026

Analysis: New US escalation in Iran makes Trump’s endgame vacuum more urgent | CNN Politics

Summary

More US combat deaths and a widening reescalation of the Iran war are putting a new spin on a long unanswered question: What is President Donald Trump’s endgame and how will he deliver it? From its initial shots, this war has been under-explained by the administration. The return to something like full-scale aerial war after a ninth consecutive night of US air raids is no exception. The president seems to be bombing again because the personal, political and economic costs of Iran’s major win so far — its stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz — are impossible for him to accept. But he has yet to tell Americans why he believes this tactic may be more successful than it was before. Meanwhile, the sharply increased tempo of US bombing and Iran’s broadened retaliation — the attack that killed two US service members and left one missing last week was in Jordan — risks pulling the entire region back into the conflagration. Jordan, a US ally that lies east of Israel and west of Iraq, is more distant to Iran than US targets in the Gulf states. But Tehran’s success in hitting US troops in the country shows that it retains lethal capacities despite weeks of American attacks. On Sunday, Iran accused the US of attacking an under-construction nuclear power plant and warned of an appropriate response. Israel said it was ready to immediately resume combat if attacked. The Iran war is not yet the kind of “forever war” in the Middle East that the president repeatedly swore off fighting. But it is nowhere near a finite war either. How can Trump reverse Iran’s big win? Absent some unforeseen shift in the brutal regime’s political foundation inside Iran, it’s unclear how this round of strikes could meaningfully reshape its options. The administration has not said whether its aim with the new strikes is solely to disable Iranian assets along the Strait of Hormuz that allow Tehran to attack civilian shipping, or whether it is preparing the ground for wider action potentially involving ground troops. Another unknown is whether the president is now more willing to go after civilian targets as a tool of extra pressure on Iran’s battered economy and power structure. And only time will tell whether he has the patience to tolerate the global economic shocks that may ensue before his reimposed blockade on ships and ports decisively increases the heat on Iran. After all, he told Americans last month that he inked an initial agreement to end the war because he didn’t want to cause another Great Depression. That was seen as a bid to mitigate political damage to the GOP ahead of November’s midterm elections. Such questions are especially pertinent now not just because the conflict is ramping up nearly five months after Trump declared it won in a couple of days, but because this new phase seems to be an attempt to fix the failings of the initial war. US forces are now effectively fighting to deprive Iran of its capacity to use the strait to hold the global economy hostage. The strait was open to free navigation before the war. If Trump can’t restore that status quo, he will be remembered for a strategic disaster. But his options for doing so are limited, especially since aspects of the newly constituted Iranian regime seem actively bullish about more war. The president could have explained his latest thinking on the war in a national address last week. But he mentioned it only obliquely, devoting most of his time to claims that the US electoral system corrupted, even though declassified documents released by the White House failed to back up his comments. That omission only added to the strategic uncertainty. More US deaths US casualty figures for the Iran war bear no comparison to the deaths and injuries the nation suffered during the Afghan and Iraq wars. But every loss rips apart a family. And every loss increases the onus on political leaders to demonstrate the mission justifies the sacrifice. On Friday, two personnel were killed in an Iranian strike on a US base in Jordan; another is missing. On Saturday, a US soldier died in northern Iraq during a controlled detonation of unexploded ordnance from a downed Iranian drone. This brought the US death toll to 17. Civilian casualties in Iran are presumed to be higher but are impossible for outside media outlets to verify. Trump reacted to the deaths of the first two service personnel in an interview with the New York Post. He called the losses “a shame” and said he’d contact the families of the fallen. He told NewsNation that “we hate to see it happen.” The most direct attempt Sunday by the administration to explain its actions came from US Energy Secretary Chris Wright. He told ABC News’ “This Week” that the president’s “focus is on degrading the Iranian ability to terrorize the world, to hold world commerce hostage, as they are doing right now, and to prevent Iran from getting nuclear weapons. That is unchanged.” Wright disputed the accuracy of public reports showing the near-cutoff of tanker traffic through the strait. Open-source data from maritime tracking agency MarineTraffic reported that traffic through the strait dipped to just eight ships on July 16, down from 15 a day earlier. Before the war, an average of about 116 ships used the vital sea lanes daily. Republican Rep. Michael McCaul of Texas told “Fox News Sunday” that the military “was winning this war against Iran.” He added: “We stopped … to negotiate a ceasefire and a negotiated settlement.” McCaul was referencing the memorandum of understanding that Trump said achieved all US goals but that collapsed partly because Iran sought to demonstrate its control over the strait. McCaul said the “fundamental objective now” was for the US military to take out Iranian launch pads and drones. On CNN’s “State of the Union” on Sunday, Democratic Sen. John Fetterman, who broke with factions of his party over the war and his support for Israel, said Trump should press on. “I think it’s entirely appropriate to continue to confront Iran,” Fetterman told Jake Tapper. But Sen. Mark Warner, the top Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee, said: “This is what happens when you start a war of choice.” Warner, a member of the Gang of Eight top congressional leaders briefed on the most sensitive intelligence, told CBS’ “Face the Nation” that “I can say unequivocally there was no imminent threat from Iran.” Is there a way out? The current Washington debate about the war, like Trump’s public statements, seems only to illuminate a vicious circle. Attacking Iranian positions around the strait and civilian targets like bridges used by the military may degrade Tehran’s threat. But in an age of drones, when just a few missiles can deter ships from tackling the strait, will the US military ever be able to reduce risks to tolerable levels? Rebuking Trump over the war may work as a political argument for Democrats ahead of the midterms. But it does nothing to help find a resolution. If political pressure forces Trump to walk away, the world economy will be held to ransom by a tyrannical regime in Tehran. And there’s no sign anyway that it will agree to concessions through diplomacy that US and the world may deem acceptable. The course of escalating air strikes might work for a time, but without repeatedly returning to military action, Trump, or the next US commander in chief, may struggle to ensure Iran’s threat has been decisively eliminated. And without the visibility that an elusive nuclear agreement could offer through international monitoring, the idea — if only theoretical — that the Islamic Republic might race to an atomic bomb can’t be ruled out. Perhaps this intractability best explains Trump’s latest strategy of escalation without a clear end game. Retired US Navy Adm. James Stavridis told Tapper that all Trump’s options were bad. Iran doesn’t “have a great hand of cards, but they’re playing it pretty well … kind of reminiscent of the North Vietnamese in the war in Vietnam or the Taliban in Afghanistan,” Stavridis said. “So they’re working to make us determine that this candle is not worth the game, that we would in fact ultimately walk away.” He continued: “I don’t think they will succeed at that strategy, but it’s certainly the one they’re pursuing. And they are thus far at least hanging around the hoop and staying in the game.”

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Stephen CollinsonBy Stephen Collinson
More US combat deaths and a widening reescalation of the Iran war are putting a new spin on a long unanswered question: What is President Donald Trump’s endgame and how will he deliver it? From its initial shots, this war has been under-explained by the administration. The return…

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Jul 23, 2026strikeUnverifiedUSIranProxy

UK ‘ready to defend itself’ after Iranian threat over US bases

○ 1 source

The government has said the UK is “ready to defend itself” after Iran’s military warned that any bases being used by the US were “legitimate targets”. The UK has allowed the US to launch “defensive” operations from British bases hosting American planes since the start of its war on Iran but has refused to help in offensive operations.

That policy has not been altered by the new prime minister, Andy Burnham, who was notified last week that a decision had been made to extend the agreement with the US. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said on Thursday that “any base used for aggression against Iranian territory constitutes a legitimate target for our forces”.

In a statement published on the IRGC-linked Tasnim news agency, the group said American bombing missions had been launched from RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire two days earlier. The statement came after the US carried out a 12th consecutive night of strikes against targets in Iran.

The Ministry of Defence has not commented on whether Fairford was used by the US for operations against Iran this week. The IRGC also accused the “British monarchy regime” of causing being the “primary cause of hardships in our region with a black record of partitioning Islamic nations, widespread massacres, imposing despotic regimes, and organising the occupation of Palestine”.

It warned the government “not to weigh down its record any further”. A spokesperson for the British government said: “Our armed forces are ready to keep the United Kingdom safe from any kind of attacks, whether it’s on our soil or from abroad. The UK stands ready 24/7 to defend itself.

“This includes through operating a layered approach to air and missile defence, provided by Royal Navy, British Army and Royal Air Force assets equipped with a range of advanced capabilities, working closely with our Nato allies. “We are committed to defending our people, our interests and our allies, acting in accordance with international law and not getting drawn into the wider conflict.

” On 1 March a drone struck the RAF base at Akrotiri in Cyprus, hitting a hangar, and prompting a partial evacuation of the facility. On 19 March, Iran fired two ballistic missiles at the UK’s Diego Garcia base in the Chagos Islands. One reportedly failed mid-flight, while the other was shot down by a US airship.

Iran has launched strikes against countries in the Gulf that house US military bases, including Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait, killing American service personnel in some of the attacks. Donald Trump said Iran would “pay a big price” for killing US troops.

On Thursday afternoon, the US president said he was considering ordering a “massive attack” on Iran. “I am close to making a decision,” he told Axios. “We’re all set for it.” He said he believed Iran’s leaders “want to negotiate”, but aren’t yet ready to make a deal.

In another sign of the conflict potentially escalating, Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels said they attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea on Thursday, as oil topped $100 a barrel.

Hayden Vernon

Jul 23, 2026strikeUnverifiedUSIranProxyRussia

Oil Prices Soar as US-Iran Conflict Expands to Red Sea

○ 1 source

September WTI crude oil (CLU26) on Thursday closed up +5.36 (+6.17%), and September RBOB gasoline (RBU26) closed up +0.0793 (+2.44%). WTI crude oil prices (CLU26) rallied more than +6% on Thursday after the Iran-backed Houthis launched a missile and drone attack on two Saudi Arabian oil tankers in the Red Sea, expanding the oil disruptions beyond the Strait of Hormuz and threatening oil shipments in the Red Sea.

Sep Brent crude oil prices (CBU26) on Thursday rallied above $100 per barrel for the first time since May. President Trump said in an interview with Axios on Thursday that he is considering a “massive attack” that would be “bigger than ever before” and is “close to making a decision on it.

”Don’t Miss a Day: From crude oil to coffee, sign up free for Barchart’s best-in-class commodity analysis. The Houthis have vowed to blockade shipping linked to Saudi Arabia and warned shipowners against calling at the nation's ports. The move threatens Saudi oil exports from Yanbu, a Red Sea hub that the Saudi's are using to ship crude since the war brought shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to a near halt.

Meanwhile, the US and Iran exchanged attacks for the 12th straight day, and the US maintained its blockade of Iranian oil shipments in the Persian Gulf. Global crude oil supplies are tightening due to reduced flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The International Maritime Organization warned last Wednesday that it is too dangerous to cross the Strait of Hormuz at the moment, and visible transit through the strait has fallen sharply as Iran continues targeting tankers attempting to transit it.

Crude prices also have support as Ukraine intensifies drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure. Russian crude production fell to 8.928 million bpd in June, the lowest in 2.5 years, according to monthly OPEC data. According to EA Analytics, Russian crude-processing rates will average 3.

51 million bpd in July, the lowest in 24 years, amid damage to Russian energy infrastructure caused by drone and missile attacks from Ukraine. According to Bloomberg, Ukrainian forces have attacked Russian fuel-producing facilities more than 50 times this year, hitting at least 24 of Russia’s 34 largest refineries.

As of the end of June, around 90% of Russian regions have imposed some form of fuel rationing or reported supply issues, as refining capacity has plunged following damage to facilities. The strikes have deepened a nationwide gasoline shortage, with several major refineries shut down and the government banning almost all gasoline, jet fuel and diesel exports.

Russia is the world’s number two diesel exporter, after the US, according to Vortexa. Stronger Russian crude exports are also adding to global oil supplies, which is bearish for prices. Data compiled by Bloomberg show the four-week average of Russian crude exports rose to 4.

13 million bpd through June 28, the highest since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. Russia may be boosting its crude exports as the country’s refining capacity has plunged due to damage at its refining facilities from Ukraine drone and missile attacks.

The outlook for higher US crude output is negative for oil prices. The Department of Energy (DOE) on July 7 raised its US 2026 crude production estimate to 13.78 million bpd from a June estimate of 13.72 million bpd. As a bearish factor for crude, OPEC delegates said on May 14 that the cartel aims to continue a series of oil quota increases over the next few months, completing the return of halted oil production by the end of September.

The group already formally agreed to restore about two-thirds of the 1.65 million bpd supply cutback it made back in 2023 and said it plans to raise output targets further and to revive the final portion in three more monthly stages. On July 5, OPEC+ said it will boost its crude output by 188,000 bpd in August, though that increase might prove difficult due to revived US-Iran military attacks in the region.

OPEC’s June crude production rose by +2.34 million bpd to 18.75 million bpd. Vortexa reported on Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least 7 days rose +31% w/w to 90.03 million bbl in the week ended July 17. Wednesday’s weekly EIA report was mostly negative for crude oil and products.

EIA crude inventories unexpectedly rose +2.01 million bbl versus expectations of a -1.95 million bbl decline. Also, EIA gasoline supplies rose by +765,000 bbl versus expectations of a -1.9 million bbl decline. In addition, EIA distillate stockpiles rose by +1.

4 million bbl, a larger build than expectations of +825,000 bbl. On the positive side, crude supplies at Cushing, the delivery point for WTI futures, fell -624,000 bbl. Wednesday’s EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of July 17 were -5.

3% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -7.1% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -9.6% below the 5-year seasonal average. US crude oil production in the week ending July 17 fell -0.5% w/w to 13.

798 million bpd, just below the record high of 13.862 million bpd posted in the week of November 7. Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active US oil rigs in the week ended July 17 rose by +7 to a 13-month high of 452 rigs, up from the 4.

25-year low of 406 rigs posted in December 2025. However, the number of US oil rigs remains sharply below the 5.5-year high of 627 reported in December 2022. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article.

All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here. The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Barchart

Jul 23, 2026strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIran

IDF to deal 'crushing blow' to Iran, if it attacks Israel — Ynet

○ 1 source

TEL AVIV, July 23. /TASS/. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will deal "a crushing blow" to Iran, if it attacks the Jewish state, Defense Minister Israel Katz warned, according to the Ynet portal. "We are ready for any development of events. If Iran attacks Israel, we will deal a crushing blow," he said.

Earlier on Thursday, US President Donald Trump said that he was considering carrying out a massive attack on Iran, and the strikes would be harder than before. According to the American leader, Israel will "join the attack in two minutes" if requested by the United States.

However, he added that Washington "does not need anyone" to launch a new military operation. Trump did not specify a deadline for making a decision. The United States and Israel started a war with Iran on February 28. In June, Washington and Tehran signed a memorandum of understanding providing for an immediate cessation of hostilities on all fronts, including in Lebanon.

However, on the night of July 8, the United States resumed large-scale strikes against Iran, accusing it of violating the terms of the agreements regarding the Strait of Hormuz.

CurrentsAPI

Jul 23, 2026strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIran

UK 'ready to defend itself' after Iran says bases are 'legitimate targets'

○ 1 source

The British government stated that it stands ready to defend itself following Iranian comments designating UK bases hosting US forces as legitimate targets in response to US military strikes on Iran. Iranian officials described the UK as an accomplice to US operations, while UK policy has allowed US use of bases such as RAF Fairford and Diego Garcia for what the UK has termed defensive purposes.

Permissions for this arrangement, first granted in March, were extended under the current UK government.

Location: Iran

Sean Seddon