Reports indicate that gas stations in Tehran have experienced increasing wait times, with some residents citing waits of up to two hours, following a U.S. blockade and recent comments by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent regarding further economic isolation.

While Iranian officials have suggested potential reductions in fuel subsidies to manage the crisis, and the conflict has reportedly strained the economy, there is currently no verified evidence that these measures have led to regime collapse or a resurgence of the January protests.

US officials have characterized new financial measures as a major offensive aimed at disrupting the ongoing conflict between the US/Israel and Iran, while Iranian authorities stated they are prepared to withstand the sanctions. Data from the International Trade Centre indicates that China accounts for a significant portion of Iran’s exports, although economists caution that actual oil sales may be underreported due to political factors and data collection limitations.

Following the signing of a memorandum of understanding last week that reportedly extended a fragile ceasefire, the parties held their first round of negotiations on June 21, 2026.

On June 18, 2026, mediators including Qatar and Pakistan reported the first major diplomatic breakthrough in the 2025–2026 negotiations, a development that appears to have shifted the dynamic between the US and Iran.