Summary

A new and violent front has opened up in the Middle East like an open sore being scratched and threatening to widen the US-Iran conflict to a terrifying degree. The Saudi Arabia-Yemeni Houthis conflict has raged on and off since 2015 but war on Iran has ripped off the scab . And it threatens to explode further as the UK has become involved in providing military support to the Saudis. For years the Houthis have been a sideshow, an extra in Iran’s enmity towards Israel and the US, a proxy rebel force used by Iran whose main arm was Hezbollah. But they are emerging publicly as a considerable military organisation threatening what little stability remains in the Middle East as US military power in the region is depleted by war. Depleted so much, its bases battered by Iranian missiles, that the US is withdrawing from supporting Saudi Arabia against the Houthis and Britain is now stepping forward. Our government has today announced it is providing an RAF Voyager air-to-air refuelling plane to keep Saudi Typhoons in the air whilst they defend against missiles fired by the Houthis. Seems fairly harmless, not much to see here - just a refuelling plane. But the danger is that the UK becomes sucked into a resurging war between Saudi and the Houthis who are threatening further to blockade the key waterway the Bab al-Mandab. For now the Voyager supply is limited to a few weeks but the danger of “mission creep” remains, especially given the uncertainty of war in the region. The Houthis are firing missiles at Saudi Arabia and Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps forces are flooding into Yemen to provide backup and advice to the Houthis. The Mirror has learned exclusively at least 200 IRGC officers arrived in Yemen just this week as the Houthis make their move on the Bab al-Mandab and threaten Saudi Arabia. And the US, on the back foot in the war with Iran is doing little to offer help, forcing countries such as the UK to step into the ring. US security think tank The Soufan Centre said: “Despite years of building multiple, overlapping security alliances, Saudi Arabia’s leaders have been left alone to face a security crisis brought on by Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast and a resumption of their missile and drone attacks on Saudi infrastructure. “Seeking to avoid expanding the Iran war, the Kingdom’s main protector, the United States, its historic Gulf state allies, and its more recent security partners, Pakistan and Turkey, have refused to provide direct military support to Riyadh.” And that is why the UK has stepped forward, even though the Houthis and Iran are unlikely to acknowledge the subtle difference between sending offensive forces and a refuelling plane. A British security force told the Mirror this week: “The US walking away from helping the Saudis may indicate America’s military is far more depleted than previously thought. “This is a bad sign and it will take a lot of diplomatic skill to limit what help the UK is offering to Saudi Arabia - war with the Houthis will escalate.” It is painful to help a state such as Saudi Arabia that murders journalists such as Jamal Ahmad Hamza Khashoggi in 2018 but we are dealing with the realpolitik of a complex region. Britain feels it has to put aside such disgusting breaches because it has to maintain a presence in the region. And the blockading by the US and Iran of the Strait of Hormuz is now a dire situation with soaring fuel prices and another waterway and major global trade and oil checkpoint - the Bab al-Mandab - is under threat. Shia Islam Houthi forces are believed to have sidelined their religious differences and forged links with Sunni al-Qaeda-linked al-Shabab of Somalia to threaten Bab al-Mandab. Wider links between Shia Iran and Sunni groups such as al-Qaeda affiliates are meanwhile becoming increasingly worrying and complex, aligning dangerous forces. At the same time Iran has threatened to widen the war with America, possibly with an eye on further choking the Bab al-Mandab, using its proxy forces, the Houthis. In 2014 the Houthis prevailed in a civil war, ousting President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi and in 2015 the Saudis attempted to restore his government, sparking the war. That war is coming back as another nightmare sparked by US President Donald Trump’s ill-planned and failing war on Iran - and the UK is being sucked into it.