Summary

In a speech on New York's Long Island, Trump introduced the idea of declaring the Strait of Hormuz a US territory. Trump told a crowd of law enforcement officers: "After we finish defeating Iran, which is being very badly defeated — pretty soon, I'll be declaring the Hormuz Strait a territory of the United States.He claimed oil prices were coming "way down". "Essentially, that's what it is. We have the blockade. No ships get through unless we want them to." Some pundits pointed to what seemed like classic hyperbole and his penchant for floating extreme scenarios in off-the-cuff fashion; however, Trump made the statement without any qualifiers other than it will happen when Iran is "badly defeated" by the United States. That seems to be the big if in the future scenario. A Saturday X response from Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi asserted the US has zero authority to claim the strait: "The Strait of Hormuz has been Iranian, is Iranian, and will remain Iranian," he wrote, as translated from Persian to English. "This strait will only be closed and opened under Iran's command."The Iranian official then claimed all of Trump's assumptions about the conflict were delusional, showing that Washington does "not accept the reality of defeat" and so must stop indulging in its "delusions". The Iranians have been reiterating that they will continue to enforce their blockade, also as the US Navy continues blocking imports and exports from Iranian ports. Tehran continues to present the Oman deal - still pending finalization - as completely independent of US desires and conditions, and so better not interfere: Iran has reached an agreement with Oman on a shipping route map for the Strait of Hormuz after weeks of technical negotiations, Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei has told state-run Defa Press.Given the two sides continue holding to conflicting absolutist demands and conditions, there's a likelihood of further fighting - though it could continue to at a limited, tit-for-tat and slow pace. "Despite US obstruction, the talks have made positive progress over the past three weeks and an agreement has been reached on the shipping route map." He added that both sides were still negotiating outstanding issues, including a statement to be issued by Tehran and Muscat, noting that exchanges between the two countries would continue until the process was finalized. Some Republican hawks are calling for some kind of bold military action by Trump, such as ordering the takeover of Kharg Island in order to show the Iranians and the American public that Tehran does not have the upper hand ahead of US November midterm elections. However, the nearly six months of war so far has tended to demonstrate that each new escalation has not tended to go well for Washington, as Iran digs in its heels and escalates a response in turn.