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strikeAug 27, 2026

Hormuz And The Law Of Diminishing Returns: When Leverage Burns

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Hormuz And The Law Of Diminishing Returns: When Leverage Burns Authored by Tamuz Itai via The Epoch Times, For months, the assumption that the Strait of Hormuz was Tehran's ultimate card dominated commentary on the war. Vessels are seen in the Strait of Hormuz, off the port city of Bandar Abbas in southern Iran on Aug. 10, 2026. Atta Kenare/AFP via Getty Images As a narrow waterway through which roughly one-fifth of the world's oil and a substantial share of liquefied natural gas had historically passed, it appeared to be a chokepoint Iran could close or severely disrupt at will. It did not need to destroy every tanker. Hitting a small percentage with drones, cruise missiles, speedboats, or mines would spike insurance rates, deter crews and companies, and effectively shut the strait without continuous physical control. This idea was not new for 2026. It had long been a feature of the Iranian strategic posture, treated as both a military instrument and a political myth-proof that even under pressure Tehran retained a decisive lever over the global energy system. Parts of the Western media and independent analysts amplified the same narrative. Relying on incomplete open-source shipping data, especially once vessels began sailing dark, many concluded that the United States had been caught unprepared and lacked a realistic path to reopen the waterway. Hormuz, they argued, was effectively closed or closable at Iran's discretion. That framing was powerful, but also incomplete. How the Threat Has Been Eroded The assumption that Iran's detection and targeting system could not be dismantled without dramatic escalation proved wrong. Under the U.S. Central Command, also known as CENTCOM, and with significant involvement from the Fifth Fleet and Air Force components, the United States ran a sustained effort to degrade the sensors Iran needed to find and hit ships. Iran relied on mobile truck-mounted radars, drones, cruise missiles, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) speedboats, and naval mines. Inside the narrow strait, ships move in relatively predictable lanes. Iran combined active radars with passive electro-optical and infrared cameras on elevated terrain and islands such as Qeshm, Larak, and Abu Musa. Mobile radars would radiate briefly to locate shipping, then shut down and move before anti-radiation missiles could arrive. Once a ship's approximate position was known, strike systems could be sent to search. The vulnerability was that every radar emission could be detected. American aircraft responded systematically with anti-radiation missiles while visual and intelligence efforts located the passive sensors. This was the core of what some involved called "draining the swamp." Iran had redundancy, but the number of sensors was finite. Hundreds of precision strikes gradually reduced Iran's ability to see traffic in the strait. As the detection layer thinned, the effectiveness of the strike systems declined with it. Parallel efforts neutralized mines with unmanned vessels and declared the southern lane near Oman largely clear. Convoys moved under escort, often at night with the automated information system (AIS) off. Arleigh Burke-class destroyers with Aegis radars and standard missile (SM)-family interceptors formed the backbone; drones and Apache helicopters armed with laser-guided rockets provided additional cover. American ships also engaged IRGC speedboats that closed on the convoys. On the commercial side, the United States addressed insurance barriers. In early March, President Donald Trump directed the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to provide political risk insurance and guarantees for maritime trade. The DFC, working with the Treasury and CENTCOM, established a revolving reinsurance facility of roughly $20 billion-later expanded with private partners including Chubb-focused on hull, machinery, and cargo cover. Early uptake was limited. As Iranian success rates fell, more vessels joined. Results have been significant. CENTCOM has reported assisting well over a thousand commercial vessels and moving hundreds of millions of barrels since the spring. Independent trackers often showed lower numbers because much of the traffic sailed dark. Pre-war throughput was 20 million to 21 million barrels per day. Flows through Hormuz remain below that, but combined with the Abu Dhabi-Fujairah pipeline and Saudi Arabia's pipeline to Yanbu in the Red Sea, volumes recovered enough to keep oil prices in the $85 to $95 range-elevated, but far from the predicted catastrophe. Not Seeing the True Picture Public data lagged for both technical and psychological reasons. Ships that went dark during transit normally turned their AIS trackers back on afterward, so theoretically they could have been tracked and counted, yet matching was imperfect amid overlapping night movements, incomplete satellite reception, intermittent signals, and ship-to-ship transfers. Commercial trackers attempt corrections using imagery and other data, but confidence thresholds still produce undercounts relative to what escorting forces could see. There was also a narrative reason. The story of Iranian success and American failure fit expectations many already held. Contradictory evidence produced cognitive dissonance. The common response was to protect the original frame-by applying greater skepticism to inconvenient details and treating quieter progress as temporary. In a contested information environment, narratives that confirm prior expectations often outlast those that require revision. The General Principle Hormuz illustrates a broader pattern. Leverage is often strongest while latent. The threat shapes behavior; the target hedges or hopes the card is never played. Once used at scale, incentives change. Real costs appear, and the value of neutralizing the threat rises sharply. Adaptation follows: sensors are hunted, escorts are organized, alternative routes are accelerated, commercial workarounds are found. Over time, the original leverage delivers diminishing returns. The coercer frequently ends up weaker than before. The pattern is not unique. In 1973, Arab oil producers cut exports and raised prices. The short-term shock was severe; the longer-term response included efficiency gains, strategic reserves, non-OPEC production, and the shale revolution. Russia's gas cut-offs against Europe from 2021 to 2022 produced a similar arc: LNG expansion, storage, demand reduction, and alternative suppliers collapsed Moscow's share of the European market, forcing it to sell more of its supply with heavy discounts to China and others. China's 2010 rare-earth restrictions against Japan spurred alternative mining, recycling, and substitution. In recent years, the United States has also accelerated the shift with CHIPS Act funding, Department of Defense equity stakes and loans, price-floor and offtake arrangements, and Project Vault, which includes equity stakes in key producers and a strategic minerals reserve, while expanding cooperation with partners such as Australia. Remaining Levers and Their Limits If the Hormuz card is already delivering diminishing returns, what options remain for Iran? The most consequential underused lever is a more systematic campaign against Gulf energy production itself-fields, processing plants, refineries, and downstream industries. Iran has already struck these targets at a meaningful scale. What has not been fully attempted is a sustained multi-country effort at lasting destruction of capacity. Other potential levers include intensified proxies, cyber operations, pressure on Bab el-Mandeb, residual nuclear signaling, and heavier strikes on U.S. bases or critical infrastructure. Each retains some potential. Yet the same logic applies. Further large-scale use would accelerate the responses that reduce effectiveness. At the same time, the regime faces continuous economic pressure from the U.S. naval blockade, oil-export enforcement, and broader "Operation Economic Outcast" sanctions. Escalation under that siege significantly raises costs and shortens the runway. Another option might be a distraction elsewhere, perhaps initiated by another country in the emerging axis of Chinese Communist Party-dependent countries, such as Russia, North Korea, or China itself. The battle for the strait is not the entire war. It has, however, illustrated a recurring feature of strategy: geographic and resource levers look most formidable while they remain latent. Once put into continuous action, they often set in motion the forces that ultimately reduce their power. Tyler Durden Wed, 08/26/2026 - 21:45

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  • Tyler DurdenBy Tyler Durden

    Hormuz And The Law Of Diminishing Returns: When Leverage Burns Authored by Tamuz Itai via The Epoch Times, For months, the assumption that the Strait of Hormuz was Tehran's ultimate card dominated commentary on the war. Vessels are seen in the Strait of Hormuz, off …

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strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIranChina
○ 1 source

Trump predicted four to five weeks of war. It's been six months. When the U.S. and Israel launched attacks on Iran early this year, President Donald Trump said the war would last four to five weeks. Friday marks six months of conflict. Iran has expanded the war to several Gulf states and appears to have drawn the U.

S. into yet another quagmire in the Middle East. Here's a look back at major developments over the past six months of war and what could come next. The war began on Feb. 28 when the U.S. and Israel launched strikes that took out much of Iran’s leadership and damaged key Iranian military sites.

Speaking to the American people on the first day of attacks, Trump said war was meant to "defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime," which he said included its continued pursuit of a nuclear weapon. Months earlier, in June of 2025, the U.

S. conducted penetrating strikes on Iran’s underground nuclear facilities during Operation Midnight Hammer. The administration claimed at the time that Iran’s nuclear program had been “obliterated,” but would later acknowledge that enriched uranium to build a bomb still remained in Iran.

The opening days of the war were marked by a deadly airstrike on an all-girls school in southern Iran. Roughly 160 civilians, 120 of them schoolchildren, were killed. Iran has blamed the United States and Israel, but neither has assumed responsibility.

U.S. Central Command has said that it is investigating the bombing, saying the U.S. will "never" target civilians. International law prohibits the deliberate targeting of schools and universities during armed conflicts. The investigations is ongoing with few updates.

Iran retaliated immediately by attacking American bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan and Iraq on a scale not seen since the Vietnam War. It was able to strike vulnerable U.S. interests near the Persian Gulf using missiles and low-cost, one-way attack drones.

For months, both sides traded blows. In all, U.S. Central Command, which oversees forces in the Middle East, says it has hit more than 13,000 Iranian targets, which include military headquarters, naval ships, air defense systems and drone launch sites.

But Iran’s most consequential response came at sea when it shut down commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, turning the waterway into a household name almost overnight. The blockade choked one of the world’s most important shipping lanes and Iran dictated where the war’s frontline would be, rattling the global economy.

In early March, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told reporters Iran was displaying “sheer desperation” in the strait and said “we have been dealing with it, and don’t need to worry about it.” Six months later, the goalposts appear to have shifted. Blunting the economic fallout and reopening the strait has become central to the mission.

Since the start of the war, 18 U.S. service members have died and more than 750 have been wounded. Trump has attended three dignified transfer ceremonies to honor the lives of service members lost since the war began -- two in March and one in July.

He told reporters at the time it’s “one of the hardest things to do as a president.” Beyond the sacrifice of American lives, American households have faced higher costs. Six months in, global oil prices are up about 25% and the average gallon of gas nationwide hovers over $4 -- about a dollar more than before the war, according to GasBuddy.

A Brown University energy cost tracker estimates that the average American has spent nearly $700 more in fuel prices since the war began. ALSO SEE: Pentagon's official Iran war death toll no longer lists 4 troops killed during renewed fighting The president, for his part, has brushed off the concerns of rising prices, saying of oil prices at the White House in May that it’s a “very small price to pay for getting rid of a nuclear weapon from people that are really mentally deranged.

” Trump also said in May that Americans' financial situation was "not even a little bit" of a motivating factor for him reaching a deal to end the war in Iran. "The only thing that matters when I'm talking about Iran, they can't have a nuclear weapon," Trump said.

"I don't think about Americans' financial situation. I don't think about anybody. I think about one thing: we cannot let Iran have a nuclear weapon. That’s all." The president has also insisted that once the conflict ends, oil prices will "drop like a rock.

" But the war is also costing the American taxpayer. Hegseth told lawmakers this summer that the latest estimate for the cost of the war is more than $37.5 billion. Additionally, the Defense Department is asking Congress for an additional $67.1 billion for spending this year, attributing much of that demand to the war in Iran.

In April, the White House also asked Congress for a record-breaking $1.5 trillion in defense spending as part of their annual budget request for the 2027 fiscal year. The White House's request for a 42% increase in the military budget included a pay raise for troops, building more ships and a rapid procurement of 12 “critical munitions," among other things.

Polls show the Iran war is extremely unpopular. A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted in late August found just 31% of Americans approve of U.S. military strikes against Iran, down from 37% in March. The share of Republicans supporting the war was 69%, down from 77% in March.

Wide majorities of Democrats (90%) and independents (67%) disapprove of U.S. military action in Iran. The Reuters/Ipsos poll found that only 25% of Americans approved of how Trump was handling Iran; 63% disapproved, including majorities of Democrats and independents along with 28% of Republicans.

Even among congressional Republicans, who for the most part support Trump’s war, there is growing anxiety that the war will hurt them in the midterm election less than three months away. Asked about Iran, House Speaker Mike Johnson told reporters in late July that the U.

S. has "got to wrap it up," adding that an end to the war before the midterms would be "helpful." Since the start of this war, the president has claimed frequently that it was nearing a conclusion, only to see deals fall apart and fighting resume. And on at least seven occasions, Trump has made threats of major military escalation (including a threat that Iran’s entire civilization would die) only to fall back on talks that have yet to bear fruit.

Six months in, the talks are at a standstill. Trump's overall approval rating has hit record lows. The August Reuters/Ipsos poll found Trump’s approval rating at 33%, tying a record low in Reuters/Ipsos polling over both of Trump’s terms. The poll found that 65% of Americans disapproved of Trump.

Despite his early prediction the war would last no more than four to five weeks, the president, as recently as this week, said he’s in “no rush.” The U.S. hasn’t waged large-scale military attacks on Iran in nearly a month. Instead, the strategy is shifting back to the economic pressures Trump employed before the attacks began.

"We are low-keying it," Trump explained to Axios earlier this month. In addition to enforcing a blockade of Iranian ports, this week, the administration threatened to severely sanction any country that does business with Iran. The president has likened it to an "economic D-Day," but so far, the rollout has been slow.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has promised a “cure period” for entities still doing business with Iran, while declining to set any firm deadlines or call out the country’s biggest trading partner -- China -- by name. Still, Bessent insists this round of economic coercion is the “beginning of the endgame” with Iran.

The White House has repeatedly said the president’s first choice is always diplomacy. The last several months have seen multiple rounds of technical discussions and head-to-head negotiations, including the Islamabad talks in April -- the first high-level meeting between U.

S. and Iranian delegations since the days of the Shah. Those hundreds of hours of bargaining spread across months of back-and-forth negotiations eventually yielded a memorandum of understanding that was signed by the presidents of both countries in mid-June.

The 14-point document was supposed to be a pathway to a comprehensive nuclear deal, but both sides accused each other of violating the truce within a week -- eventually setting off a renewed spiral of escalation that prompted Trump to declare it officially dead just 22 days after it came into force.

Consultations with mediating powers continue at a regular clip, with negotiators from the U.S. and Iran swapping the occasional messages, U.S. officials tell ABC News. But progress is stagnant and hope that the two sides can reach any deal --much less a lasting nuclear agreement -- has reached an apparent low point.

strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIranChina
○ 1 source

Trump predicted four to five weeks of war. It's been six months. When the U.S. and Israel launched attacks on Iran early this year, President Donald Trump said the war would last four to five weeks. Friday marks six months of conflict. Iran has expanded the war to several Gulf states and appears to have drawn the U.

S. into yet another quagmire in the Middle East. Here's a look back at major developments over the past six months of war and what could come next. The war began on Feb. 28 when the U.S. and Israel launched strikes that took out much of Iran’s leadership and damaged key Iranian military sites.

Speaking to the American people on the first day of attacks, Trump said war was meant to "defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime," which he said included its continued pursuit of a nuclear weapon. Months earlier, in June of 2025, the U.

S. conducted penetrating strikes on Iran’s underground nuclear facilities during Operation Midnight Hammer. The administration claimed at the time that Iran’s nuclear program had been “obliterated,” but would later acknowledge that enriched uranium to build a bomb still remained in Iran.

The opening days of the war were marked by a deadly airstrike on an all-girls school in southern Iran. Roughly 160 civilians, 120 of them schoolchildren, were killed. Iran has blamed the United States and Israel, but neither has assumed responsibility.

U.S. Central Command has said that it is investigating the bombing, saying the U.S. will "never" target civilians. International law prohibits the deliberate targeting of schools and universities during armed conflicts. The investigations is ongoing with few updates.

Iran retaliated immediately by attacking American bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan and Iraq on a scale not seen since the Vietnam War. It was able to strike vulnerable U.S. interests near the Persian Gulf using missiles and low-cost, one-way attack drones.

For months, both sides traded blows. In all, U.S. Central Command, which oversees forces in the Middle East, says it has hit more than 13,000 Iranian targets, which include military headquarters, naval ships, air defense systems and drone launch sites.

But Iran’s most consequential response came at sea when it shut down commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, turning the waterway into a household name almost overnight. The blockade choked one of the world’s most important shipping lanes and Iran dictated where the war’s frontline would be, rattling the global economy.

In early March, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told reporters Iran was displaying “sheer desperation” in the strait and said “we have been dealing with it, and don’t need to worry about it.” Six months later, the goalposts appear to have shifted. Blunting the economic fallout and reopening the strait has become central to the mission.

Since the start of the war, 18 U.S. service members have died and more than 750 have been wounded. Trump has attended three dignified transfer ceremonies to honor the lives of service members lost since the war began -- two in March and one in July.

He told reporters at the time it’s “one of the hardest things to do as a president.” Beyond the sacrifice of American lives, American households have faced higher costs. Six months in, global oil prices are up about 25% and the average gallon of gas nationwide hovers over $4 -- about a dollar more than before the war, according to GasBuddy.

A Brown University energy cost tracker estimates that the average American has spent nearly $700 more in fuel prices since the war began. ALSO SEE: Pentagon's official Iran war death toll no longer lists 4 troops killed during renewed fighting The president, for his part, has brushed off the concerns of rising prices, saying of oil prices at the White House in May that it’s a “very small price to pay for getting rid of a nuclear weapon from people that are really mentally deranged.

” Trump also said in May that Americans' financial situation was "not even a little bit" of a motivating factor for him reaching a deal to end the war in Iran. "The only thing that matters when I'm talking about Iran, they can't have a nuclear weapon," Trump said.

"I don't think about Americans' financial situation. I don't think about anybody. I think about one thing: we cannot let Iran have a nuclear weapon. That’s all." The president has also insisted that once the conflict ends, oil prices will "drop like a rock.

" But the war is also costing the American taxpayer. Hegseth told lawmakers this summer that the latest estimate for the cost of the war is more than $37.5 billion. Additionally, the Defense Department is asking Congress for an additional $67.1 billion for spending this year, attributing much of that demand to the war in Iran.

In April, the White House also asked Congress for a record-breaking $1.5 trillion in defense spending as part of their annual budget request for the 2027 fiscal year. The White House's request for a 42% increase in the military budget included a pay raise for troops, building more ships and a rapid procurement of 12 “critical munitions," among other things.

Polls show the Iran war is extremely unpopular. A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted in late August found just 31% of Americans approve of U.S. military strikes against Iran, down from 37% in March. The share of Republicans supporting the war was 69%, down from 77% in March.

Wide majorities of Democrats (90%) and independents (67%) disapprove of U.S. military action in Iran. The Reuters/Ipsos poll found that only 25% of Americans approved of how Trump was handling Iran; 63% disapproved, including majorities of Democrats and independents along with 28% of Republicans.

Even among congressional Republicans, who for the most part support Trump’s war, there is growing anxiety that the war will hurt them in the midterm election less than three months away. Asked about Iran, House Speaker Mike Johnson told reporters in late July that the U.

S. has "got to wrap it up," adding that an end to the war before the midterms would be "helpful." Since the start of this war, the president has claimed frequently that it was nearing a conclusion, only to see deals fall apart and fighting resume. And on at least seven occasions, Trump has made threats of major military escalation (including a threat that Iran’s entire civilization would die) only to fall back on talks that have yet to bear fruit.

Six months in, the talks are at a standstill. Trump's overall approval rating has hit record lows. The August Reuters/Ipsos poll found Trump’s approval rating at 33%, tying a record low in Reuters/Ipsos polling over both of Trump’s terms. The poll found that 65% of Americans disapproved of Trump.

Despite his early prediction the war would last no more than four to five weeks, the president, as recently as this week, said he’s in “no rush.” The U.S. hasn’t waged large-scale military attacks on Iran in nearly a month. Instead, the strategy is shifting back to the economic pressures Trump employed before the attacks began.

"We are low-keying it," Trump explained to Axios earlier this month. In addition to enforcing a blockade of Iranian ports, this week, the administration threatened to severely sanction any country that does business with Iran. The president has likened it to an "economic D-Day," but so far, the rollout has been slow.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has promised a “cure period” for entities still doing business with Iran, while declining to set any firm deadlines or call out the country’s biggest trading partner -- China -- by name. Still, Bessent insists this round of economic coercion is the “beginning of the endgame” with Iran.

The White House has repeatedly said the president’s first choice is always diplomacy. The last several months have seen multiple rounds of technical discussions and head-to-head negotiations, including the Islamabad talks in April -- the first high-level meeting between U.

S. and Iranian delegations since the days of the Shah. Those hundreds of hours of bargaining spread across months of back-and-forth negotiations eventually yielded a memorandum of understanding that was signed by the presidents of both countries in mid-June.

The 14-point document was supposed to be a pathway to a comprehensive nuclear deal, but both sides accused each other of violating the truce within a week -- eventually setting off a renewed spiral of escalation that prompted Trump to declare it officially dead just 22 days after it came into force.

Consultations with mediating powers continue at a regular clip, with negotiators from the U.S. and Iran swapping the occasional messages, U.S. officials tell ABC News. But progress is stagnant and hope that the two sides can reach any deal --much less a lasting nuclear agreement -- has reached an apparent low point.

strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIranChina
○ 1 source

Trump predicted four to five weeks of war. It's been six months. When the U.S. and Israel launched attacks on Iran early this year, President Donald Trump said the war would last four to five weeks. Friday marks six months of conflict. Iran has expanded the war to several Gulf states and appears to have drawn the U.

S. into yet another quagmire in the Middle East. Here's a look back at major developments over the past six months of war and what could come next. The war began on Feb. 28 when the U.S. and Israel launched strikes that took out much of Iran’s leadership and damaged key Iranian military sites.

Speaking to the American people on the first day of attacks, Trump said war was meant to "defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime," which he said included its continued pursuit of a nuclear weapon. Months earlier, in June of 2025, the U.

S. conducted penetrating strikes on Iran’s underground nuclear facilities during Operation Midnight Hammer. The administration claimed at the time that Iran’s nuclear program had been “obliterated,” but would later acknowledge that enriched uranium to build a bomb still remained in Iran.

The opening days of the war were marked by a deadly airstrike on an all-girls school in southern Iran. Roughly 160 civilians, 120 of them schoolchildren, were killed. Iran has blamed the United States and Israel, but neither has assumed responsibility.

U.S. Central Command has said that it is investigating the bombing, saying the U.S. will "never" target civilians. International law prohibits the deliberate targeting of schools and universities during armed conflicts. The investigations is ongoing with few updates.

Iran retaliated immediately by attacking American bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan and Iraq on a scale not seen since the Vietnam War. It was able to strike vulnerable U.S. interests near the Persian Gulf using missiles and low-cost, one-way attack drones.

For months, both sides traded blows. In all, U.S. Central Command, which oversees forces in the Middle East, says it has hit more than 13,000 Iranian targets, which include military headquarters, naval ships, air defense systems and drone launch sites.

But Iran’s most consequential response came at sea when it shut down commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, turning the waterway into a household name almost overnight. The blockade choked one of the world’s most important shipping lanes and Iran dictated where the war’s frontline would be, rattling the global economy.

In early March, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told reporters Iran was displaying “sheer desperation” in the strait and said “we have been dealing with it, and don’t need to worry about it.” Six months later, the goalposts appear to have shifted. Blunting the economic fallout and reopening the strait has become central to the mission.

Since the start of the war, 18 U.S. service members have died and more than 750 have been wounded. Trump has attended three dignified transfer ceremonies to honor the lives of service members lost since the war began -- two in March and one in July.

He told reporters at the time it’s “one of the hardest things to do as a president.” Beyond the sacrifice of American lives, American households have faced higher costs. Six months in, global oil prices are up about 25% and the average gallon of gas nationwide hovers over $4 -- about a dollar more than before the war, according to GasBuddy.

A Brown University energy cost tracker estimates that the average American has spent nearly $700 more in fuel prices since the war began. ALSO SEE: Pentagon's official Iran war death toll no longer lists 4 troops killed during renewed fighting The president, for his part, has brushed off the concerns of rising prices, saying of oil prices at the White House in May that it’s a “very small price to pay for getting rid of a nuclear weapon from people that are really mentally deranged.

” Trump also said in May that Americans' financial situation was "not even a little bit" of a motivating factor for him reaching a deal to end the war in Iran. "The only thing that matters when I'm talking about Iran, they can't have a nuclear weapon," Trump said.

"I don't think about Americans' financial situation. I don't think about anybody. I think about one thing: we cannot let Iran have a nuclear weapon. That’s all." The president has also insisted that once the conflict ends, oil prices will "drop like a rock.

" But the war is also costing the American taxpayer. Hegseth told lawmakers this summer that the latest estimate for the cost of the war is more than $37.5 billion. Additionally, the Defense Department is asking Congress for an additional $67.1 billion for spending this year, attributing much of that demand to the war in Iran.

In April, the White House also asked Congress for a record-breaking $1.5 trillion in defense spending as part of their annual budget request for the 2027 fiscal year. The White House's request for a 42% increase in the military budget included a pay raise for troops, building more ships and a rapid procurement of 12 “critical munitions," among other things.

Polls show the Iran war is extremely unpopular. A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted in late August found just 31% of Americans approve of U.S. military strikes against Iran, down from 37% in March. The share of Republicans supporting the war was 69%, down from 77% in March.

Wide majorities of Democrats (90%) and independents (67%) disapprove of U.S. military action in Iran. The Reuters/Ipsos poll found that only 25% of Americans approved of how Trump was handling Iran; 63% disapproved, including majorities of Democrats and independents along with 28% of Republicans.

Even among congressional Republicans, who for the most part support Trump’s war, there is growing anxiety that the war will hurt them in the midterm election less than three months away. Asked about Iran, House Speaker Mike Johnson told reporters in late July that the U.

S. has "got to wrap it up," adding that an end to the war before the midterms would be "helpful." Since the start of this war, the president has claimed frequently that it was nearing a conclusion, only to see deals fall apart and fighting resume. And on at least seven occasions, Trump has made threats of major military escalation (including a threat that Iran’s entire civilization would die) only to fall back on talks that have yet to bear fruit.

Six months in, the talks are at a standstill. Trump's overall approval rating has hit record lows. The August Reuters/Ipsos poll found Trump’s approval rating at 33%, tying a record low in Reuters/Ipsos polling over both of Trump’s terms. The poll found that 65% of Americans disapproved of Trump.

Despite his early prediction the war would last no more than four to five weeks, the president, as recently as this week, said he’s in “no rush.” The U.S. hasn’t waged large-scale military attacks on Iran in nearly a month. Instead, the strategy is shifting back to the economic pressures Trump employed before the attacks began.

"We are low-keying it," Trump explained to Axios earlier this month. In addition to enforcing a blockade of Iranian ports, this week, the administration threatened to severely sanction any country that does business with Iran. The president has likened it to an "economic D-Day," but so far, the rollout has been slow.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has promised a “cure period” for entities still doing business with Iran, while declining to set any firm deadlines or call out the country’s biggest trading partner -- China -- by name. Still, Bessent insists this round of economic coercion is the “beginning of the endgame” with Iran.

The White House has repeatedly said the president’s first choice is always diplomacy. The last several months have seen multiple rounds of technical discussions and head-to-head negotiations, including the Islamabad talks in April -- the first high-level meeting between U.

S. and Iranian delegations since the days of the Shah. Those hundreds of hours of bargaining spread across months of back-and-forth negotiations eventually yielded a memorandum of understanding that was signed by the presidents of both countries in mid-June.

The 14-point document was supposed to be a pathway to a comprehensive nuclear deal, but both sides accused each other of violating the truce within a week -- eventually setting off a renewed spiral of escalation that prompted Trump to declare it officially dead just 22 days after it came into force.

Consultations with mediating powers continue at a regular clip, with negotiators from the U.S. and Iran swapping the occasional messages, U.S. officials tell ABC News. But progress is stagnant and hope that the two sides can reach any deal --much less a lasting nuclear agreement -- has reached an apparent low point.

strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIranChina
○ 1 source

Trump predicted four to five weeks of war. It's been six months. When the U.S. and Israel launched attacks on Iran early this year, President Donald Trump said the war would last four to five weeks. Friday marks six months of conflict. Iran has expanded the war to several Gulf states and appears to have drawn the U.

S. into yet another quagmire in the Middle East. Here's a look back at major developments over the past six months of war and what could come next. The war began on Feb. 28 when the U.S. and Israel launched strikes that took out much of Iran’s leadership and damaged key Iranian military sites.

Speaking to the American people on the first day of attacks, Trump said war was meant to "defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime," which he said included its continued pursuit of a nuclear weapon. Months earlier, in June of 2025, the U.

S. conducted penetrating strikes on Iran’s underground nuclear facilities during Operation Midnight Hammer. The administration claimed at the time that Iran’s nuclear program had been “obliterated,” but would later acknowledge that enriched uranium to build a bomb still remained in Iran.

The opening days of the war were marked by a deadly airstrike on an all-girls school in southern Iran. Roughly 160 civilians, 120 of them schoolchildren, were killed. Iran has blamed the United States and Israel, but neither has assumed responsibility.

U.S. Central Command has said that it is investigating the bombing, saying the U.S. will "never" target civilians. International law prohibits the deliberate targeting of schools and universities during armed conflicts. The investigations is ongoing with few updates.

Iran retaliated immediately by attacking American bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan and Iraq on a scale not seen since the Vietnam War. It was able to strike vulnerable U.S. interests near the Persian Gulf using missiles and low-cost, one-way attack drones.

For months, both sides traded blows. In all, U.S. Central Command, which oversees forces in the Middle East, says it has hit more than 13,000 Iranian targets, which include military headquarters, naval ships, air defense systems and drone launch sites.

But Iran’s most consequential response came at sea when it shut down commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, turning the waterway into a household name almost overnight. The blockade choked one of the world’s most important shipping lanes and Iran dictated where the war’s frontline would be, rattling the global economy.

In early March, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told reporters Iran was displaying “sheer desperation” in the strait and said “we have been dealing with it, and don’t need to worry about it.” Six months later, the goalposts appear to have shifted. Blunting the economic fallout and reopening the strait has become central to the mission.

Since the start of the war, 18 U.S. service members have died and more than 750 have been wounded. Trump has attended three dignified transfer ceremonies to honor the lives of service members lost since the war began -- two in March and one in July.

He told reporters at the time it’s “one of the hardest things to do as a president.” Beyond the sacrifice of American lives, American households have faced higher costs. Six months in, global oil prices are up about 25% and the average gallon of gas nationwide hovers over $4 -- about a dollar more than before the war, according to GasBuddy.

A Brown University energy cost tracker estimates that the average American has spent nearly $700 more in fuel prices since the war began. ALSO SEE: Pentagon's official Iran war death toll no longer lists 4 troops killed during renewed fighting The president, for his part, has brushed off the concerns of rising prices, saying of oil prices at the White House in May that it’s a “very small price to pay for getting rid of a nuclear weapon from people that are really mentally deranged.

” Trump also said in May that Americans' financial situation was "not even a little bit" of a motivating factor for him reaching a deal to end the war in Iran. "The only thing that matters when I'm talking about Iran, they can't have a nuclear weapon," Trump said.

"I don't think about Americans' financial situation. I don't think about anybody. I think about one thing: we cannot let Iran have a nuclear weapon. That’s all." The president has also insisted that once the conflict ends, oil prices will "drop like a rock.

" But the war is also costing the American taxpayer. Hegseth told lawmakers this summer that the latest estimate for the cost of the war is more than $37.5 billion. Additionally, the Defense Department is asking Congress for an additional $67.1 billion for spending this year, attributing much of that demand to the war in Iran.

In April, the White House also asked Congress for a record-breaking $1.5 trillion in defense spending as part of their annual budget request for the 2027 fiscal year. The White House's request for a 42% increase in the military budget included a pay raise for troops, building more ships and a rapid procurement of 12 “critical munitions," among other things.

Polls show the Iran war is extremely unpopular. A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted in late August found just 31% of Americans approve of U.S. military strikes against Iran, down from 37% in March. The share of Republicans supporting the war was 69%, down from 77% in March.

Wide majorities of Democrats (90%) and independents (67%) disapprove of U.S. military action in Iran. The Reuters/Ipsos poll found that only 25% of Americans approved of how Trump was handling Iran; 63% disapproved, including majorities of Democrats and independents along with 28% of Republicans.

Even among congressional Republicans, who for the most part support Trump’s war, there is growing anxiety that the war will hurt them in the midterm election less than three months away. Asked about Iran, House Speaker Mike Johnson told reporters in late July that the U.

S. has "got to wrap it up," adding that an end to the war before the midterms would be "helpful." Since the start of this war, the president has claimed frequently that it was nearing a conclusion, only to see deals fall apart and fighting resume. And on at least seven occasions, Trump has made threats of major military escalation (including a threat that Iran’s entire civilization would die) only to fall back on talks that have yet to bear fruit.

Six months in, the talks are at a standstill. Trump's overall approval rating has hit record lows. The August Reuters/Ipsos poll found Trump’s approval rating at 33%, tying a record low in Reuters/Ipsos polling over both of Trump’s terms. The poll found that 65% of Americans disapproved of Trump.

Despite his early prediction the war would last no more than four to five weeks, the president, as recently as this week, said he’s in “no rush.” The U.S. hasn’t waged large-scale military attacks on Iran in nearly a month. Instead, the strategy is shifting back to the economic pressures Trump employed before the attacks began.

"We are low-keying it," Trump explained to Axios earlier this month. In addition to enforcing a blockade of Iranian ports, this week, the administration threatened to severely sanction any country that does business with Iran. The president has likened it to an "economic D-Day," but so far, the rollout has been slow.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has promised a “cure period” for entities still doing business with Iran, while declining to set any firm deadlines or call out the country’s biggest trading partner -- China -- by name. Still, Bessent insists this round of economic coercion is the “beginning of the endgame” with Iran.

The White House has repeatedly said the president’s first choice is always diplomacy. The last several months have seen multiple rounds of technical discussions and head-to-head negotiations, including the Islamabad talks in April -- the first high-level meeting between U.

S. and Iranian delegations since the days of the Shah. Those hundreds of hours of bargaining spread across months of back-and-forth negotiations eventually yielded a memorandum of understanding that was signed by the presidents of both countries in mid-June.

The 14-point document was supposed to be a pathway to a comprehensive nuclear deal, but both sides accused each other of violating the truce within a week -- eventually setting off a renewed spiral of escalation that prompted Trump to declare it officially dead just 22 days after it came into force.

Consultations with mediating powers continue at a regular clip, with negotiators from the U.S. and Iran swapping the occasional messages, U.S. officials tell ABC News. But progress is stagnant and hope that the two sides can reach any deal --much less a lasting nuclear agreement -- has reached an apparent low point.