strikeJul 7, 2026

How drones transformed Iran's relationships with its proxies

Summary

How drones transformed Iran's relationships with its proxiesJuly 7, 2026 When the United States and Israel launched the war on Iran in late February, they hoped to cripple both the Islamic Republic and its so-called "Axis of Resistance" in the Middle East. This comprises Iran's paramilitary proxy groups, including Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and militias in Iraq, all of whom are opposed to the US and Israel. The assumption was that "by hitting the right leaders, weapons facilities and supply lines, an outside actor could induce catastrophic failure across the Iranian regime and its web of Middle Eastern allies," said Peter Salisbury, a fellow at US think tank Century International and lead author of the think tank's recently published report"Beyond the Axis." Despite the US and Israel achieving many of those military objectives, Iranian forces were able to continue launching drone attacks on neighboring Gulf states and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, while their allies in Lebanon and Yemen intensified attacks against Israel and commercial shipping in the Red Sea. Operational autonomy For Wolf-Christian Paes, associate fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, and one of the contributors to the "Beyond the Axis" report, the term "proxies" is actually misleading as it implies a command-and-control relationship between Tehran and the members of the axis. "Unmanned aerial vehicle [UAV] proliferation is a good example," he told DW. A few years ago, Tehran transferred complete systems and the necessary training to its allies. "Today these militias can build their own UAVs, based on Iranian designs, with most of the parts coming from countries other than Iran," Paes said. For example, according to the report, which was published after two years of research, these groups are able to source large quantities of engines for the Shahed-136 drone directly from Chinese manufacturers. "Dual-use technology is difficult to control in the first place and without a traditional hub for smuggling, tracking the supply chain is like looking for a needle in a haystack," Paes told DW, adding that for example China, Russia but also Oman have so far made no real attempts to control the movement of these items. According to the "Beyond the Axis" report, drone-related conflict incidents around the world rose from 140 in 2016 to more than 58,000 in 2025, a 41,000% increase. Changing ties "The growing ability of Iran's partners to manufacture and deploy drones independently is also changing the nature of their relationship with Tehran," Neil Quilliam, an associate fellow with the Middle East and North Africa program at the UK-based think tank Chatham House, told DW. In his view, the Houthi militia in Yemen illustrates this trend. The group now possesses a level of operational autonomy that would have been difficult to imagine a decade ago. "Iran and Lebanon's Hezbollah helped establish the foundations of the Houthis' drone and missile programs, while years of conflict and isolation compelled them to develop domestic production capabilities," he told DW. During the two-year war in Gaza from 2023 to 2025, the Houthis attacked Israel as well as international shipping in the Red Sea with drones and missiles in what they said was a bid to show support for Palestinians in Gaza. During the war in Iran from February to April 2026, the Houthis resumed attacks. The report also notes that, since at least 2022, a small group of senior Houthi officers in Sanaa have built relationships across the African coasts of the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. "Houthi smuggling networks are now present in Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea and Sudan," the report said. Lebanon's Hezbollah militia For many years, Lebanon's Hezbollah militia was Tehran's best equipped proxy largely because of its proximity to Israel. A day after Hamas attacked Israel on Oct.7, 2023, Hezbollah opened a second front in Israel's north which escalated into a war in Lebanon. "Israeli efforts to degrade the organization's leadership and military infrastructure created a situation in which Iranian assistance became essential for recovery," Quilliam said. A November 2024 ceasefire fell apart in early March 2026, after Hezbollah attacked Israel with drones and missiles following the Israeli killing of the Iran's leader Ali Khamenei, who Hezbollah also pledged allegiance to. In the peace talks between the US and Tehran, the front in Lebanon has since become a key issue. "Hezbollah's participation alongside Iran during the recent conflict, coupled with Tehran's insistence that any ceasefire arrangement include Lebanon, demonstrated how closely the two remain linked," Quilliam said. Hamas in Gaza, paramilitary groups in Iraq As a consequence of Israel's prolonged military campaign in Gaza, Tehran's access to Gaza and Hamas is reduced, Quilliam said. "That should not be mistaken for a permanent decline in Iranian relevance, as the relationships, training networks and technical expertise developed over decades have not disappeared," he told DW. In his view, Tehran's ties to Hamas illustrates how military cooperation can survive even when political influence temporarily recedes. In Iraq, Tehran-linked armed groups need to balance local Iraqi interests against their ties with Iran, Quilliam observed. While greater drone self-sufficiency gives them more independent means of projecting power and expanding influence, "the challenge for Tehran increasingly lies in coordinating a growing number of capable actors whose interests only partially overlap," Quilliam said. In his view, Iran retains influence through political relationships, training, intelligence sharing and strategic coordination across all of these groups. "But influence is not the same as control," he told DW. 'New type of challenge' Salisbury, of Century International, agrees that Iran is still the militia groups' most powerful and consequential node but the relationship between Tehran and the proxies has turned into one of mutual interdependence. "Capabilities, data and strategic needs flow in multiple directions," he said. Does all this make it harder for Iran's opponents to dismantle these networks, and to reduce the threat of drone warfare from them? "Looking ahead, the most significant consequence of drone proliferation across the so-called 'Axis of Resistance' may be the emergence of multiple centers of expertise within what was once viewed primarily as an Iranian-led system," Quilliam told DW. "This makes the wider network more resilient, harder to disrupt and potentially more unpredictable."

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Jennifer HolleisBy Jennifer Holleis
How drones transformed Iran's relationships with its proxiesJuly 7, 2026 When the United States and Israel launched the war on Iran in late February, they hoped to cripple both the Islamic Republic and its so-called "Axis of Resistance" in the Middle East. This comprises Iran's p…

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Jul 23, 2026strikeUnverifiedUSIranProxy

UK ‘ready to defend itself’ after Iranian threat over US bases

○ 1 source

The government has said the UK is “ready to defend itself” after Iran’s military warned that any bases being used by the US were “legitimate targets”. The UK has allowed the US to launch “defensive” operations from British bases hosting American planes since the start of its war on Iran but has refused to help in offensive operations.

That policy has not been altered by the new prime minister, Andy Burnham, who was notified last week that a decision had been made to extend the agreement with the US. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said on Thursday that “any base used for aggression against Iranian territory constitutes a legitimate target for our forces”.

In a statement published on the IRGC-linked Tasnim news agency, the group said American bombing missions had been launched from RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire two days earlier. The statement came after the US carried out a 12th consecutive night of strikes against targets in Iran.

The Ministry of Defence has not commented on whether Fairford was used by the US for operations against Iran this week. The IRGC also accused the “British monarchy regime” of causing being the “primary cause of hardships in our region with a black record of partitioning Islamic nations, widespread massacres, imposing despotic regimes, and organising the occupation of Palestine”.

It warned the government “not to weigh down its record any further”. A spokesperson for the British government said: “Our armed forces are ready to keep the United Kingdom safe from any kind of attacks, whether it’s on our soil or from abroad. The UK stands ready 24/7 to defend itself.

“This includes through operating a layered approach to air and missile defence, provided by Royal Navy, British Army and Royal Air Force assets equipped with a range of advanced capabilities, working closely with our Nato allies. “We are committed to defending our people, our interests and our allies, acting in accordance with international law and not getting drawn into the wider conflict.

” On 1 March a drone struck the RAF base at Akrotiri in Cyprus, hitting a hangar, and prompting a partial evacuation of the facility. On 19 March, Iran fired two ballistic missiles at the UK’s Diego Garcia base in the Chagos Islands. One reportedly failed mid-flight, while the other was shot down by a US airship.

Iran has launched strikes against countries in the Gulf that house US military bases, including Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait, killing American service personnel in some of the attacks. Donald Trump said Iran would “pay a big price” for killing US troops.

On Thursday afternoon, the US president said he was considering ordering a “massive attack” on Iran. “I am close to making a decision,” he told Axios. “We’re all set for it.” He said he believed Iran’s leaders “want to negotiate”, but aren’t yet ready to make a deal.

In another sign of the conflict potentially escalating, Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels said they attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea on Thursday, as oil topped $100 a barrel.

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Jul 23, 2026strikeUnverifiedUSIranProxyRussia

Oil Prices Soar as US-Iran Conflict Expands to Red Sea

○ 1 source

September WTI crude oil (CLU26) on Thursday closed up +5.36 (+6.17%), and September RBOB gasoline (RBU26) closed up +0.0793 (+2.44%). WTI crude oil prices (CLU26) rallied more than +6% on Thursday after the Iran-backed Houthis launched a missile and drone attack on two Saudi Arabian oil tankers in the Red Sea, expanding the oil disruptions beyond the Strait of Hormuz and threatening oil shipments in the Red Sea.

Sep Brent crude oil prices (CBU26) on Thursday rallied above $100 per barrel for the first time since May. President Trump said in an interview with Axios on Thursday that he is considering a “massive attack” that would be “bigger than ever before” and is “close to making a decision on it.

”Don’t Miss a Day: From crude oil to coffee, sign up free for Barchart’s best-in-class commodity analysis. The Houthis have vowed to blockade shipping linked to Saudi Arabia and warned shipowners against calling at the nation's ports. The move threatens Saudi oil exports from Yanbu, a Red Sea hub that the Saudi's are using to ship crude since the war brought shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to a near halt.

Meanwhile, the US and Iran exchanged attacks for the 12th straight day, and the US maintained its blockade of Iranian oil shipments in the Persian Gulf. Global crude oil supplies are tightening due to reduced flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The International Maritime Organization warned last Wednesday that it is too dangerous to cross the Strait of Hormuz at the moment, and visible transit through the strait has fallen sharply as Iran continues targeting tankers attempting to transit it.

Crude prices also have support as Ukraine intensifies drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure. Russian crude production fell to 8.928 million bpd in June, the lowest in 2.5 years, according to monthly OPEC data. According to EA Analytics, Russian crude-processing rates will average 3.

51 million bpd in July, the lowest in 24 years, amid damage to Russian energy infrastructure caused by drone and missile attacks from Ukraine. According to Bloomberg, Ukrainian forces have attacked Russian fuel-producing facilities more than 50 times this year, hitting at least 24 of Russia’s 34 largest refineries.

As of the end of June, around 90% of Russian regions have imposed some form of fuel rationing or reported supply issues, as refining capacity has plunged following damage to facilities. The strikes have deepened a nationwide gasoline shortage, with several major refineries shut down and the government banning almost all gasoline, jet fuel and diesel exports.

Russia is the world’s number two diesel exporter, after the US, according to Vortexa. Stronger Russian crude exports are also adding to global oil supplies, which is bearish for prices. Data compiled by Bloomberg show the four-week average of Russian crude exports rose to 4.

13 million bpd through June 28, the highest since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. Russia may be boosting its crude exports as the country’s refining capacity has plunged due to damage at its refining facilities from Ukraine drone and missile attacks.

The outlook for higher US crude output is negative for oil prices. The Department of Energy (DOE) on July 7 raised its US 2026 crude production estimate to 13.78 million bpd from a June estimate of 13.72 million bpd. As a bearish factor for crude, OPEC delegates said on May 14 that the cartel aims to continue a series of oil quota increases over the next few months, completing the return of halted oil production by the end of September.

The group already formally agreed to restore about two-thirds of the 1.65 million bpd supply cutback it made back in 2023 and said it plans to raise output targets further and to revive the final portion in three more monthly stages. On July 5, OPEC+ said it will boost its crude output by 188,000 bpd in August, though that increase might prove difficult due to revived US-Iran military attacks in the region.

OPEC’s June crude production rose by +2.34 million bpd to 18.75 million bpd. Vortexa reported on Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least 7 days rose +31% w/w to 90.03 million bbl in the week ended July 17. Wednesday’s weekly EIA report was mostly negative for crude oil and products.

EIA crude inventories unexpectedly rose +2.01 million bbl versus expectations of a -1.95 million bbl decline. Also, EIA gasoline supplies rose by +765,000 bbl versus expectations of a -1.9 million bbl decline. In addition, EIA distillate stockpiles rose by +1.

4 million bbl, a larger build than expectations of +825,000 bbl. On the positive side, crude supplies at Cushing, the delivery point for WTI futures, fell -624,000 bbl. Wednesday’s EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of July 17 were -5.

3% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -7.1% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -9.6% below the 5-year seasonal average. US crude oil production in the week ending July 17 fell -0.5% w/w to 13.

798 million bpd, just below the record high of 13.862 million bpd posted in the week of November 7. Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active US oil rigs in the week ended July 17 rose by +7 to a 13-month high of 452 rigs, up from the 4.

25-year low of 406 rigs posted in December 2025. However, the number of US oil rigs remains sharply below the 5.5-year high of 627 reported in December 2022. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article.

All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here. The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Barchart

Jul 23, 2026strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIran

IDF to deal 'crushing blow' to Iran, if it attacks Israel — Ynet

○ 1 source

TEL AVIV, July 23. /TASS/. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will deal "a crushing blow" to Iran, if it attacks the Jewish state, Defense Minister Israel Katz warned, according to the Ynet portal. "We are ready for any development of events. If Iran attacks Israel, we will deal a crushing blow," he said.

Earlier on Thursday, US President Donald Trump said that he was considering carrying out a massive attack on Iran, and the strikes would be harder than before. According to the American leader, Israel will "join the attack in two minutes" if requested by the United States.

However, he added that Washington "does not need anyone" to launch a new military operation. Trump did not specify a deadline for making a decision. The United States and Israel started a war with Iran on February 28. In June, Washington and Tehran signed a memorandum of understanding providing for an immediate cessation of hostilities on all fronts, including in Lebanon.

However, on the night of July 8, the United States resumed large-scale strikes against Iran, accusing it of violating the terms of the agreements regarding the Strait of Hormuz.

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Jul 23, 2026strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIran

UK 'ready to defend itself' after Iran says bases are 'legitimate targets'

○ 1 source

The British government stated that it stands ready to defend itself following Iranian comments designating UK bases hosting US forces as legitimate targets in response to US military strikes on Iran. Iranian officials described the UK as an accomplice to US operations, while UK policy has allowed US use of bases such as RAF Fairford and Diego Garcia for what the UK has termed defensive purposes.

Permissions for this arrangement, first granted in March, were extended under the current UK government.

Location: Iran

Sean Seddon