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2026 Iran-Gulf Crisis Tracker
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diplomacySep 22, 2026

Iran flights to Baghdad, Muscat cancelled ahead of US aviation sanctions

Summary

Iran's aviation officials negotiate with Oman and Iraq as US's Bessent targets carriers seven months into the conflict.

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USIran

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diplomacyUnverifiedUSEURussiaUkraine
○ 1 source

Polymarket prediction markets currently price the probability of Russia and Ukraine holding peace talks by December 31 at 81.5%, a figure that has risen approximately 10 points in the last 24 hours. While both Moscow and Kyiv have indicated openness to resuming trilateral negotiations in November, traders assign a significantly lower 13.

5% likelihood to an actual ceasefire occurring by year's end.

Location: Tyre