strikeJul 14, 2026

Iran: Living in limbo between war and ceasefire

Summary

Iran: Living in limbo between war and ceasefire Since the ceasefire between Iran, the United States and Israel was announced, Iranians have repeatedly been told that the war is over. But at the same time, attacks, threats and diplomatic talks have continued. Iranian authorities talk about negotiations, progress and even sanctions relief one day, only to warn of retaliation, further strikes and threats to Iran’s critical infrastructure the next. This constant oscillation between war and diplomacy has left many people in Iran caught between hope and dread. READ: Iranians struggle to buy food as war drives up prices For many, that uncertainty has become more psychologically damaging than the war itself. The problem is no longer just the fear of violence, but also the inability to imagine a stable future. A society unable to plan One lawyer based in Tehran, who asked not to be named, told DW that the hardest part of the current moment is not knowing when the crisis will end. “The most important feature of this moment is that the end of the war is unknown,” she said. “When you cannot plan how to endure hardship, it puts enormous pressure on you.” She said she no longer has the motivation to work or start anything new. Even speaking freely in society feels difficult. In the city where she grew up in, she said, she now feels a sense of estrangement from some of the people around her. That sense of paralysis appears to go well beyond individual frustration, affecting basic decisions about work, family and the future. Combined with economic instability and the constant fear that violence could return at any moment, the result has been a wider mood of fatigue and social stagnation. “We are completely hopeless,” a resident of Isfahan city told DW. “This instability between peace and war has turned our mental state into a game, and we have no clear outlook for our future, or for our psychological and financial security.” READ: Iran after the war — fragile peace, shattered economy The same person said the entire experience had become deeply corrosive, with trust in either side of the war, or in the possibility of a durable agreement, having largely collapsed. Generation without a template for war The current uncertainty may weigh especially heavily on younger Iranians, many of whom have no direct memory of the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq war or of life under prolonged military threat. For them, this is the first experience of living under the shadow of an open-ended regional conflict. A nurse in western Iran told DW that when a society enters this kind of situation, trust in the future weakens and people begin postponing long-term decisions. “People start living as if the only goal is just to get through today,” she said on condition of anonymity. For a generation without direct experience of prolonged war, she added, the situation is more disorienting, not necessarily because they are weaker, but because they have no mental model for how to live through such a period. What many people are experiencing now is less fear of war in the narrow sense than exhaustion produced by uncertainty, she said. The nurse said the change is visible in hospitals and clinics, with patients being increasingly angry, dissatisfied and easily provoked. Even when services are good, she said, many remain upset. In her view, that anger is inseparable from the wider social climate. Anger, despair and emotional burnout Saeed Paivandi, a professor at the University of Lorraine in France, told DW that available data and field research point to two overlapping tendencies in Iran today: widespread despair about the future, and intense anger at the government’s inability to deal with ordinary life and govern effectively. READ: Iran after Khamenei: A new order takes shape Referring to a survey conducted by Iran’s Interior Ministry in May 2026, he said it found that around 60% of the population felt hopeless about the future. He also cited more recent survey findings published by IranWire, which he said showed anger in 64% of respondents, despair in around 50%, depression in 48% and fear and anxiety in about 45%. According to Paivandi, these figures show a clear deterioration compared with the last available survey before the mass anti-government protests and the authorities’ harsh clampdown earlier this year. He believes anger, depression and anxiety have all risen by roughly 10 to 12 percentage points. That suggests that the state crackdown, followed by the US and Israeli attack on Iran, has left a serious mark on how people feel about life, politics and the future. Paivandi also said the data point to another striking trend: around one-third of Iranians now express a desire to emigrate, with that figure rising among younger and more educated groups. Outside deal unlikely to resolve an inside crisis Against this backdrop, experts argue that Iran’s current psychological crisis extends beyond ceasefires, diplomacy and military escalation. While the external conflict matters, it has landed on top of a society already worn down by high inflation, repression, mistrust and a long-running sense of blocked opportunity. What makes the current moment especially difficult is that no side has offered people a clear and credible horizon. Instead, they are confronted with contradictory messages every day, making uncertainty a fact of daily life. And the longer that limbo continues, the more difficult it becomes to restore confidence — or sustain people’s energy needed to imagine any future at all. /dl

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Amir SoltanzadehBy Amir Soltanzadeh
Iran: Living in limbo between war and ceasefire Since the ceasefire between Iran, the United States and Israel was announced, Iranians have repeatedly been told that the war is over. But at the same time, attacks, threats and diplomatic talks have continued. Iranian authorities t…

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Jul 23, 2026strikeUnverifiedUSIranProxy

UK ‘ready to defend itself’ after Iranian threat over US bases

○ 1 source

The government has said the UK is “ready to defend itself” after Iran’s military warned that any bases being used by the US were “legitimate targets”. The UK has allowed the US to launch “defensive” operations from British bases hosting American planes since the start of its war on Iran but has refused to help in offensive operations.

That policy has not been altered by the new prime minister, Andy Burnham, who was notified last week that a decision had been made to extend the agreement with the US. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said on Thursday that “any base used for aggression against Iranian territory constitutes a legitimate target for our forces”.

In a statement published on the IRGC-linked Tasnim news agency, the group said American bombing missions had been launched from RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire two days earlier. The statement came after the US carried out a 12th consecutive night of strikes against targets in Iran.

The Ministry of Defence has not commented on whether Fairford was used by the US for operations against Iran this week. The IRGC also accused the “British monarchy regime” of causing being the “primary cause of hardships in our region with a black record of partitioning Islamic nations, widespread massacres, imposing despotic regimes, and organising the occupation of Palestine”.

It warned the government “not to weigh down its record any further”. A spokesperson for the British government said: “Our armed forces are ready to keep the United Kingdom safe from any kind of attacks, whether it’s on our soil or from abroad. The UK stands ready 24/7 to defend itself.

“This includes through operating a layered approach to air and missile defence, provided by Royal Navy, British Army and Royal Air Force assets equipped with a range of advanced capabilities, working closely with our Nato allies. “We are committed to defending our people, our interests and our allies, acting in accordance with international law and not getting drawn into the wider conflict.

” On 1 March a drone struck the RAF base at Akrotiri in Cyprus, hitting a hangar, and prompting a partial evacuation of the facility. On 19 March, Iran fired two ballistic missiles at the UK’s Diego Garcia base in the Chagos Islands. One reportedly failed mid-flight, while the other was shot down by a US airship.

Iran has launched strikes against countries in the Gulf that house US military bases, including Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait, killing American service personnel in some of the attacks. Donald Trump said Iran would “pay a big price” for killing US troops.

On Thursday afternoon, the US president said he was considering ordering a “massive attack” on Iran. “I am close to making a decision,” he told Axios. “We’re all set for it.” He said he believed Iran’s leaders “want to negotiate”, but aren’t yet ready to make a deal.

In another sign of the conflict potentially escalating, Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels said they attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea on Thursday, as oil topped $100 a barrel.

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Jul 23, 2026strikeUnverifiedUSIranProxyRussia

Oil Prices Soar as US-Iran Conflict Expands to Red Sea

○ 1 source

September WTI crude oil (CLU26) on Thursday closed up +5.36 (+6.17%), and September RBOB gasoline (RBU26) closed up +0.0793 (+2.44%). WTI crude oil prices (CLU26) rallied more than +6% on Thursday after the Iran-backed Houthis launched a missile and drone attack on two Saudi Arabian oil tankers in the Red Sea, expanding the oil disruptions beyond the Strait of Hormuz and threatening oil shipments in the Red Sea.

Sep Brent crude oil prices (CBU26) on Thursday rallied above $100 per barrel for the first time since May. President Trump said in an interview with Axios on Thursday that he is considering a “massive attack” that would be “bigger than ever before” and is “close to making a decision on it.

”Don’t Miss a Day: From crude oil to coffee, sign up free for Barchart’s best-in-class commodity analysis. The Houthis have vowed to blockade shipping linked to Saudi Arabia and warned shipowners against calling at the nation's ports. The move threatens Saudi oil exports from Yanbu, a Red Sea hub that the Saudi's are using to ship crude since the war brought shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to a near halt.

Meanwhile, the US and Iran exchanged attacks for the 12th straight day, and the US maintained its blockade of Iranian oil shipments in the Persian Gulf. Global crude oil supplies are tightening due to reduced flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The International Maritime Organization warned last Wednesday that it is too dangerous to cross the Strait of Hormuz at the moment, and visible transit through the strait has fallen sharply as Iran continues targeting tankers attempting to transit it.

Crude prices also have support as Ukraine intensifies drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure. Russian crude production fell to 8.928 million bpd in June, the lowest in 2.5 years, according to monthly OPEC data. According to EA Analytics, Russian crude-processing rates will average 3.

51 million bpd in July, the lowest in 24 years, amid damage to Russian energy infrastructure caused by drone and missile attacks from Ukraine. According to Bloomberg, Ukrainian forces have attacked Russian fuel-producing facilities more than 50 times this year, hitting at least 24 of Russia’s 34 largest refineries.

As of the end of June, around 90% of Russian regions have imposed some form of fuel rationing or reported supply issues, as refining capacity has plunged following damage to facilities. The strikes have deepened a nationwide gasoline shortage, with several major refineries shut down and the government banning almost all gasoline, jet fuel and diesel exports.

Russia is the world’s number two diesel exporter, after the US, according to Vortexa. Stronger Russian crude exports are also adding to global oil supplies, which is bearish for prices. Data compiled by Bloomberg show the four-week average of Russian crude exports rose to 4.

13 million bpd through June 28, the highest since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. Russia may be boosting its crude exports as the country’s refining capacity has plunged due to damage at its refining facilities from Ukraine drone and missile attacks.

The outlook for higher US crude output is negative for oil prices. The Department of Energy (DOE) on July 7 raised its US 2026 crude production estimate to 13.78 million bpd from a June estimate of 13.72 million bpd. As a bearish factor for crude, OPEC delegates said on May 14 that the cartel aims to continue a series of oil quota increases over the next few months, completing the return of halted oil production by the end of September.

The group already formally agreed to restore about two-thirds of the 1.65 million bpd supply cutback it made back in 2023 and said it plans to raise output targets further and to revive the final portion in three more monthly stages. On July 5, OPEC+ said it will boost its crude output by 188,000 bpd in August, though that increase might prove difficult due to revived US-Iran military attacks in the region.

OPEC’s June crude production rose by +2.34 million bpd to 18.75 million bpd. Vortexa reported on Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least 7 days rose +31% w/w to 90.03 million bbl in the week ended July 17. Wednesday’s weekly EIA report was mostly negative for crude oil and products.

EIA crude inventories unexpectedly rose +2.01 million bbl versus expectations of a -1.95 million bbl decline. Also, EIA gasoline supplies rose by +765,000 bbl versus expectations of a -1.9 million bbl decline. In addition, EIA distillate stockpiles rose by +1.

4 million bbl, a larger build than expectations of +825,000 bbl. On the positive side, crude supplies at Cushing, the delivery point for WTI futures, fell -624,000 bbl. Wednesday’s EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of July 17 were -5.

3% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -7.1% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -9.6% below the 5-year seasonal average. US crude oil production in the week ending July 17 fell -0.5% w/w to 13.

798 million bpd, just below the record high of 13.862 million bpd posted in the week of November 7. Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active US oil rigs in the week ended July 17 rose by +7 to a 13-month high of 452 rigs, up from the 4.

25-year low of 406 rigs posted in December 2025. However, the number of US oil rigs remains sharply below the 5.5-year high of 627 reported in December 2022. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article.

All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here. The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Barchart

Jul 23, 2026strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIran

IDF to deal 'crushing blow' to Iran, if it attacks Israel — Ynet

○ 1 source

TEL AVIV, July 23. /TASS/. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will deal "a crushing blow" to Iran, if it attacks the Jewish state, Defense Minister Israel Katz warned, according to the Ynet portal. "We are ready for any development of events. If Iran attacks Israel, we will deal a crushing blow," he said.

Earlier on Thursday, US President Donald Trump said that he was considering carrying out a massive attack on Iran, and the strikes would be harder than before. According to the American leader, Israel will "join the attack in two minutes" if requested by the United States.

However, he added that Washington "does not need anyone" to launch a new military operation. Trump did not specify a deadline for making a decision. The United States and Israel started a war with Iran on February 28. In June, Washington and Tehran signed a memorandum of understanding providing for an immediate cessation of hostilities on all fronts, including in Lebanon.

However, on the night of July 8, the United States resumed large-scale strikes against Iran, accusing it of violating the terms of the agreements regarding the Strait of Hormuz.

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Jul 23, 2026strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIran

UK 'ready to defend itself' after Iran says bases are 'legitimate targets'

○ 1 source

The British government stated that it stands ready to defend itself following Iranian comments designating UK bases hosting US forces as legitimate targets in response to US military strikes on Iran. Iranian officials described the UK as an accomplice to US operations, while UK policy has allowed US use of bases such as RAF Fairford and Diego Garcia for what the UK has termed defensive purposes.

Permissions for this arrangement, first granted in March, were extended under the current UK government.

Location: Iran

Sean Seddon