strikeJul 9, 2026

Khamenei funeral signals Iran’s defiance and new regional order

Summary

The funeral of late Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was more than a national farewell. The sea of mourners in Tehran sent a message to the US and Israel that their attempt to break the Islamic republic had failed. Rather than looking weakened by the war that began with US and Israeli strikes on Feb. 28, Iran presented itself as defiant, unified and determined to shape what comes next. That defiance and ability to survive now underpin Iran’s negotiating strategy, regional officials, diplomats and analysts say, depicting the funeral as the moment Tehran sought to transform endurance into leverage. NOT ‘A DIAMOND FOR A LOLLIPOP’ The war, they said, has underlined Iran’s leverage over the Strait of Hormuz and enabled it to demand that any deal on its nuclear program begins with recognition that its control over the vital oil chokepoint is a reality that must be accepted. A 60-day ceasefire was intended by Washington to revive diplomacy on stopping Iran developing a nuclear arsenal, but has instead opened a different contest. In this contest, Iran’s location rather than its uranium is its most powerful asset, with Tehran seeking to convert wartime gains into permanent strategic advantage by securing acceptance of its dominant position around the strait The 60-day clock toward a final deal following the ceasefire agreement and the accompanying memorandum of understanding is yet to start. In that vacuum, Iran is setting the pace. Although huge revenues might be earned from charging fees for vessels using the strait, Tehran sees Hormuz less as an economic asset than as a source of political legitimacy, Alex Vatanka of the US-based Middle East Institute said. “The symbolic part is more important for the Iranians than revenues,” Vatanka said. “They want some kind of symbolic acceptance that the strait is Iran’s. It’s about accepting Iran as the sovereign power over the Strait.” Citing a Persian saying, Vatanka added: “Why give away a diamond for a lollipop?” According to Tehran’s calculation, Hormuz is the diamond. Sanctions relief and frozen assets are the lollipop. ‘DIVINE BLESSING’ Iran’s leadership has echoed this position. “The Strait of Hormuz is our greatest power tool; we must properly protect this divine blessing,” Iranian parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf said, adding that Iran would “under no circumstances relinquish its rights” there. Iran is deliberately slowing negotiations to lock in what it sees as the war’s dividends before returning to the nuclear question, regional sources and diplomats say. For Tehran — which denies seeking a nuclear bomb — uranium can wait, but consolidating its position on Hormuz cannot, said Alan Eyre, a former US diplomat with expertise on Iran. “Iran is perfectly happy to play for time and just drag negotiations out,” Eyre said. “It wants control of Hormuz and is holding talks to institutionalize that control.” That could mean embedding its influence through transit arrangements, coordination mechanisms or charges for services along the corridor that carries a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, while Gulf states wait to see whether Washington can or is able to reverse the new reality. Tehran believes US President Donald Trump — constrained by domestic politics and wary of another confrontation before midterm congressional elections to in November — is under more pressure to secure a deal than Iran is to make concessions. “The Iranians know that President Trump wants to get out; he wants to move on,” Eyre said. “They know they can squeeze him because time is on their side.” Aaron David Miller, a former US Middle East negotiator, said Washington’s military campaign had failed to break Iran’s leverage, leaving US diplomacy with a flawed ceasefire whose implementation has become a battleground. Tehran has little reason to engage seriously on its nuclear program until it is confident the new reality around Hormuz has been accepted and meaningful progress made on unlocking billions of dollars in frozen assets held abroad, he said. “The 60-day clock was always a fantasy,” Miller said. “The Iranians are not going to move to the nuclear file until they’re relatively confident, they’ve achieved this new status quo. They want to make sure that Trump understands, and that the world understands, that there’s no going back to February 27.” IRAN Will not GIVE UP HORMUZ Iran is exploiting what Miller calls the key reality of the post-war order — neither US military power nor the threat of a US naval blockade fundamentally altered its position on the Strait of Hormuz. “They’re not going to give it up,” he said. Emirates Policy Center president Ebtesam al-Ketbi said that by halting the war without resolving the issues that caused it, Washington may have helped elevate Hormuz from being a pressure point into a lasting source of leverage for Tehran. Gulf officials worry that by showing Iran’s ability to shape events around the strait, the war created an advantage that Tehran will be reluctant to surrender even in exchange for sanctions relief or progress on the nuclear file. “They are twisting the arms of the Americans and everybody,” al Ketbi said. “Now that they have found this Hormuz treasure, they will not leave it.” Washington is likely to have to accept the reopening of the strait under conditions largely dictated by Tehran, analysts say. “No one’s going to win, but Iran will lose less than the United States will,” Eyre said. For years, international media and residents have lamented the treacherous conditions of Taiwan’s streets. Authorities have rolled out various crackdowns and stricter law enforcement. Yet, despite a staggering NT$14.2 billion (US$444.7 million) collected in traffic fines in 2024 alone, Taiwan’s roads remain as dangerous as ever. This exposes a fundamental flaw in Taiwan’s approach to traffic safety: an over-reliance on punitive measures over structural reform. A recent proposal by lawmakers to hold a referendum earmarking traffic fine revenue for road safety infrastructure and public transport subsidies is a step forward. It challenges the habit of treating traffic enforcement as a With Russia under pressure on multiple fronts, Russian President Vladimir Putin finds himself in a tighter spot than at any other moment of his quarter-century in power. Putin remains firmly in charge of the Kremlin, but there is a growing risk that he will try to escape his current predicament by escalating his conflict with the West. Putin’s first problem is that his war in Ukraine has no momentum. Recent territorial gains have come slowly and at the cost of enormous loss of life (450,000 killed, almost eight times the US body count in Vietnam) and economic damage. After four As science, apparently, has proven that a frog in water subjected to increasing heat will, in fact, jump, so then Taiwan, Japan, the Philippines, and the United States are not condemned to suffer occupation and defeat from the various incrementalist strategies of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and its People’s Liberation Army (PLA). CCP/PLA incrementalism in the South China Sea (SCS) has won a great victory, starting in January 1974, when PLA Maritime Militia forces killed 75 South Vietnamese troops to seize 7.75 square kilometers of land in the Paracel Islands (西沙群島) — and no one responded. Fifty-two years later, by moving Last month, the US Department of War reversed a decision taken during US President Donald Trump’s first administration, restoring the US Indo-Pacific Command’s former name, the US Pacific Command. The 2018 addition of “Indo-Pacific” signaled a sustained US focus on linking the Pacific and Indian Ocean theatres. Many read the change as a retreat from a China-focused networked security architecture, inevitably bringing Taiwan into the equation. However, this does not mean the Indo-Pacific is dead or India’s role diminished. The framework remains intact, and India’s position continues to strengthen. India has been central to the Indo-Pacific construct from the start,

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The funeral of late Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was more than a national farewell. The sea of mourners in Tehran sent a message to the US and Israel that their attempt to break the Islamic republic had failed. Rather than looking weakened by the war that began w…

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Jul 23, 2026strikeUnverifiedUSIranProxy

UK ‘ready to defend itself’ after Iranian threat over US bases

○ 1 source

The government has said the UK is “ready to defend itself” after Iran’s military warned that any bases being used by the US were “legitimate targets”. The UK has allowed the US to launch “defensive” operations from British bases hosting American planes since the start of its war on Iran but has refused to help in offensive operations.

That policy has not been altered by the new prime minister, Andy Burnham, who was notified last week that a decision had been made to extend the agreement with the US. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said on Thursday that “any base used for aggression against Iranian territory constitutes a legitimate target for our forces”.

In a statement published on the IRGC-linked Tasnim news agency, the group said American bombing missions had been launched from RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire two days earlier. The statement came after the US carried out a 12th consecutive night of strikes against targets in Iran.

The Ministry of Defence has not commented on whether Fairford was used by the US for operations against Iran this week. The IRGC also accused the “British monarchy regime” of causing being the “primary cause of hardships in our region with a black record of partitioning Islamic nations, widespread massacres, imposing despotic regimes, and organising the occupation of Palestine”.

It warned the government “not to weigh down its record any further”. A spokesperson for the British government said: “Our armed forces are ready to keep the United Kingdom safe from any kind of attacks, whether it’s on our soil or from abroad. The UK stands ready 24/7 to defend itself.

“This includes through operating a layered approach to air and missile defence, provided by Royal Navy, British Army and Royal Air Force assets equipped with a range of advanced capabilities, working closely with our Nato allies. “We are committed to defending our people, our interests and our allies, acting in accordance with international law and not getting drawn into the wider conflict.

” On 1 March a drone struck the RAF base at Akrotiri in Cyprus, hitting a hangar, and prompting a partial evacuation of the facility. On 19 March, Iran fired two ballistic missiles at the UK’s Diego Garcia base in the Chagos Islands. One reportedly failed mid-flight, while the other was shot down by a US airship.

Iran has launched strikes against countries in the Gulf that house US military bases, including Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait, killing American service personnel in some of the attacks. Donald Trump said Iran would “pay a big price” for killing US troops.

On Thursday afternoon, the US president said he was considering ordering a “massive attack” on Iran. “I am close to making a decision,” he told Axios. “We’re all set for it.” He said he believed Iran’s leaders “want to negotiate”, but aren’t yet ready to make a deal.

In another sign of the conflict potentially escalating, Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels said they attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea on Thursday, as oil topped $100 a barrel.

Hayden Vernon

Jul 23, 2026strikeUnverifiedUSIranProxyRussia

Oil Prices Soar as US-Iran Conflict Expands to Red Sea

○ 1 source

September WTI crude oil (CLU26) on Thursday closed up +5.36 (+6.17%), and September RBOB gasoline (RBU26) closed up +0.0793 (+2.44%). WTI crude oil prices (CLU26) rallied more than +6% on Thursday after the Iran-backed Houthis launched a missile and drone attack on two Saudi Arabian oil tankers in the Red Sea, expanding the oil disruptions beyond the Strait of Hormuz and threatening oil shipments in the Red Sea.

Sep Brent crude oil prices (CBU26) on Thursday rallied above $100 per barrel for the first time since May. President Trump said in an interview with Axios on Thursday that he is considering a “massive attack” that would be “bigger than ever before” and is “close to making a decision on it.

”Don’t Miss a Day: From crude oil to coffee, sign up free for Barchart’s best-in-class commodity analysis. The Houthis have vowed to blockade shipping linked to Saudi Arabia and warned shipowners against calling at the nation's ports. The move threatens Saudi oil exports from Yanbu, a Red Sea hub that the Saudi's are using to ship crude since the war brought shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to a near halt.

Meanwhile, the US and Iran exchanged attacks for the 12th straight day, and the US maintained its blockade of Iranian oil shipments in the Persian Gulf. Global crude oil supplies are tightening due to reduced flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The International Maritime Organization warned last Wednesday that it is too dangerous to cross the Strait of Hormuz at the moment, and visible transit through the strait has fallen sharply as Iran continues targeting tankers attempting to transit it.

Crude prices also have support as Ukraine intensifies drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure. Russian crude production fell to 8.928 million bpd in June, the lowest in 2.5 years, according to monthly OPEC data. According to EA Analytics, Russian crude-processing rates will average 3.

51 million bpd in July, the lowest in 24 years, amid damage to Russian energy infrastructure caused by drone and missile attacks from Ukraine. According to Bloomberg, Ukrainian forces have attacked Russian fuel-producing facilities more than 50 times this year, hitting at least 24 of Russia’s 34 largest refineries.

As of the end of June, around 90% of Russian regions have imposed some form of fuel rationing or reported supply issues, as refining capacity has plunged following damage to facilities. The strikes have deepened a nationwide gasoline shortage, with several major refineries shut down and the government banning almost all gasoline, jet fuel and diesel exports.

Russia is the world’s number two diesel exporter, after the US, according to Vortexa. Stronger Russian crude exports are also adding to global oil supplies, which is bearish for prices. Data compiled by Bloomberg show the four-week average of Russian crude exports rose to 4.

13 million bpd through June 28, the highest since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. Russia may be boosting its crude exports as the country’s refining capacity has plunged due to damage at its refining facilities from Ukraine drone and missile attacks.

The outlook for higher US crude output is negative for oil prices. The Department of Energy (DOE) on July 7 raised its US 2026 crude production estimate to 13.78 million bpd from a June estimate of 13.72 million bpd. As a bearish factor for crude, OPEC delegates said on May 14 that the cartel aims to continue a series of oil quota increases over the next few months, completing the return of halted oil production by the end of September.

The group already formally agreed to restore about two-thirds of the 1.65 million bpd supply cutback it made back in 2023 and said it plans to raise output targets further and to revive the final portion in three more monthly stages. On July 5, OPEC+ said it will boost its crude output by 188,000 bpd in August, though that increase might prove difficult due to revived US-Iran military attacks in the region.

OPEC’s June crude production rose by +2.34 million bpd to 18.75 million bpd. Vortexa reported on Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least 7 days rose +31% w/w to 90.03 million bbl in the week ended July 17. Wednesday’s weekly EIA report was mostly negative for crude oil and products.

EIA crude inventories unexpectedly rose +2.01 million bbl versus expectations of a -1.95 million bbl decline. Also, EIA gasoline supplies rose by +765,000 bbl versus expectations of a -1.9 million bbl decline. In addition, EIA distillate stockpiles rose by +1.

4 million bbl, a larger build than expectations of +825,000 bbl. On the positive side, crude supplies at Cushing, the delivery point for WTI futures, fell -624,000 bbl. Wednesday’s EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of July 17 were -5.

3% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -7.1% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -9.6% below the 5-year seasonal average. US crude oil production in the week ending July 17 fell -0.5% w/w to 13.

798 million bpd, just below the record high of 13.862 million bpd posted in the week of November 7. Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active US oil rigs in the week ended July 17 rose by +7 to a 13-month high of 452 rigs, up from the 4.

25-year low of 406 rigs posted in December 2025. However, the number of US oil rigs remains sharply below the 5.5-year high of 627 reported in December 2022. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article.

All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here. The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Barchart

Jul 23, 2026strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIran

IDF to deal 'crushing blow' to Iran, if it attacks Israel — Ynet

○ 1 source

TEL AVIV, July 23. /TASS/. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will deal "a crushing blow" to Iran, if it attacks the Jewish state, Defense Minister Israel Katz warned, according to the Ynet portal. "We are ready for any development of events. If Iran attacks Israel, we will deal a crushing blow," he said.

Earlier on Thursday, US President Donald Trump said that he was considering carrying out a massive attack on Iran, and the strikes would be harder than before. According to the American leader, Israel will "join the attack in two minutes" if requested by the United States.

However, he added that Washington "does not need anyone" to launch a new military operation. Trump did not specify a deadline for making a decision. The United States and Israel started a war with Iran on February 28. In June, Washington and Tehran signed a memorandum of understanding providing for an immediate cessation of hostilities on all fronts, including in Lebanon.

However, on the night of July 8, the United States resumed large-scale strikes against Iran, accusing it of violating the terms of the agreements regarding the Strait of Hormuz.

CurrentsAPI

Jul 23, 2026strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIran

UK 'ready to defend itself' after Iran says bases are 'legitimate targets'

○ 1 source

The British government stated that it stands ready to defend itself following Iranian comments designating UK bases hosting US forces as legitimate targets in response to US military strikes on Iran. Iranian officials described the UK as an accomplice to US operations, while UK policy has allowed US use of bases such as RAF Fairford and Diego Garcia for what the UK has termed defensive purposes.

Permissions for this arrangement, first granted in March, were extended under the current UK government.

Location: Iran

Sean Seddon