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strikeJul 9, 2026

New attacks raise questions about what comes next in the Iran war

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Give now to help PBS News start our new fiscal year strong. Will Weissert, Associated Press Will Weissert, Associated Press Farnoush Amiri, Associated Press Farnoush Amiri, Associated Press Samy Magdy, Associated Press Samy Magdy, Associated Press Leave your feedback WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump says he believes the ceasefire with Iran is over. He says he's not sure he wants a deal anymore and says the U.S. should "finish the job." But he also insists that continued attacks do not mean a return to war or long-term action. The confusion and uncertainty in Trump's mixed messaging and his approval of back-to-back military strikes leave major questions about what comes next in the conflict, just weeks after difficult diplomacy to reach even an initial deal between the longtime adversaries. WATCH: Trump says ceasefire is 'over' as U.S. launches more strikes on Iran The whipsawing rhetoric could be a strategy to increase the pressure on Tehran to stop attacking ships transporting oil and natural gas in the Strait of Hormuz and bend to U.S. demands on its nuclear program — something Trump has tried before. Subscribe to Here’s the Deal, our politics newsletter for analysis you won’t find anywhere else. Thank you. Please check your inbox to confirm. Whether it is a negotiation tactic or a signal of an escalation in fighting, mediators are scrambling to save the interim deal and the actions risk further inflaming tensions — which could spell problems for Republicans in November's midterm elections if gas prices stay high. Trump warned Wednesday that a new round of U.S. attacks was coming, even as he attempted to shrug off suggestions of a return to full-scale war. Hours later, the military announced it was carrying out new attacks on Iran that were meant to "further degrade their ability to threaten freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz." READ MORE: U.S. and Iran exchange intensifying fire across the Mideast, threatening the interim deal to end war "Anything that happens is going to happen very fast," Trump said earlier. "We're not looking for a long time." A regional intelligence official involved in the mediation efforts said the conflict had reached a critical stage as mutual mistrust rises. But high-level communications are happening around the clock to salvage the ceasefire, said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the delicate behind-the-scenes negotiations. The foreign ministers of Pakistan and Qatar, as well as Egypt's intelligence chief, are leading the efforts, while Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan — whose country hosted the NATO summit that wrapped Wednesday — and leaders from Saudi Arabia are also involved, the official said. The U.S. is upset about ships being attacked in the Strait of Hormuz and accuses Iran of slow-playing discussions on curtailing its nuclear program, the official said. Nuclear talks were a major next step to try to turn the interim deal announced last month into a lasting end to the war. Tehran, meanwhile, says Washington is the one violating the agreement regarding the strait and failing to ensure that a ceasefire in Lebanon, including an Israeli withdrawal, is being implemented, the official said. Michael Eisenstadt, a former U.S. military analyst who now directs the Military and Security Studies Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said that "we're still in negotiating mode, no matter what the president says." "This is part of negotiating, and declaring that the MOU is over is part of the negotiation as well," Eisenstadt said, referring to the memorandum of understanding that the ceasefire was built on. Trump, though, has been explicit in public comments, saying he's lost interest in preserving the ceasefire: "I think it's over." "We can play games, but I'm not sure I want to make a deal," he said during the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey, adding that the U.S. military might "just finish the job." Parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, Iran's lead negotiator, said the Trump administration had repeatedly violated the terms of the initial pact, forcing the country to respond appropriately. "The era of bullying and extortion is over," Qalibaf posted on X. "It leads nowhere. We don't fold." Pakistan, which helped broker the ceasefire, said renewed conflict is in "no one's interest" and urged both sides to uphold their commitments. "There is no alternative to continued engagement, dialogue and diplomacy to achieve shared goal of peace in the region," its Foreign Ministry said in a statement. Trump, nonetheless, dismissed Tehran's leaders, calling them "scum" and "sick people." Just last month, Trump said Iran's leadership was "very rational" and "nice to deal with," while also calling the country's leaders "smart people." Speaking at an event in Milwaukee on Wednesday, Vice President JD Vance, who led U.S. efforts to reach the initial deal with Tehran, said Iran was "well behaved for about a week." He added that lately the country had begun attacking the strait and said, "If they shoot at ships, we're going to knock the hell out of them." Before the U.S. and Iran reached their first, two-week ceasefire in April, Trump intensified his threats, pledging that American forces would bomb Iranian bridges, roads and power plants. He even posted online, "A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again." He repeated dire threats before the tentative 60-day deal to end the war was reached last month. Trump likes to seek ways to negotiate from a position of strength, and he could be looking for more leverage with new strikes. But being unequivocal about the end of the ceasefire also could free up Iran militarily — which could again roil oil prices and financial markets. Ali Vaez, Iran director at the International Crisis Group, argued that escalating threats may be a riskier maneuver this time around, given the domestic and international stakes for the U.S. "It certainly looks like an effort to turn up the military heat without yet closing the diplomatic door," Vaez said. "But coercive bargaining is a dangerous game: At some point, a pressure campaign can acquire a momentum of its own and become the war it was ostensibly meant to avoid." He added, however, that Iran still has every reason to return to the table because it desperately needs the economic relief that was promised under the interim deal. Trump also has sent mixed signals about the fallout. He long insisted that rising gas prices for Americans didn't factor into his calculations on Iran — only to say that part of the reason he agreed to the interim deal was to avoid an "economic catastrophe." He has since touted the falling price of oil after the deal was reached. The president again resumed his past threats to strike Iran's civilian infrastructure, possibly including electric plants and desalinization plants, and to seize the oil-production hub of Kharg Island. "We may take over Kharg Island," he said. "There's not a thing they could do about it." Still, the midterm elections — when Republicans hope to retain control of the House and Senate — are now less than four months away. Oil prices rising again amid greater uncertainty about the war means Americans will likely continue to see higher prices at the pump. The president tried to play down such concerns, saying, "Any time we hit them, it goes up a little bit — $2." In fact, U.S. oil futures jumped far higher and may keep climbing — even as Trump acknowledged, "As oil goes, so goes everything else." He argued that an increase in oil prices was worth it to bar Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. "It's all right." Amiri reported from New York and Magdy from Cairo. Associated Press writer Munir Ahmed in Islamabad contributed to this report. Support trusted journalism and civil dialogue. Support Provided By: Learn more

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    Give now to help PBS News start our new fiscal year strong. Will Weissert, Associated Press Will Weissert, Associated Press Farnoush Amiri, Associated Press Farnoush Amiri, Associated Press Samy Magdy, Associated Press Samy Magdy, Associated Press Leave your feedback WASHINGTON (

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strikeUnverifiedUSIranProxy
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The government has said the UK is “ready to defend itself” after Iran’s military warned that any bases being used by the US were “legitimate targets”. The UK has allowed the US to launch “defensive” operations from British bases hosting American planes since the start of its war on Iran but has refused to help in offensive operations.

That policy has not been altered by the new prime minister, Andy Burnham, who was notified last week that a decision had been made to extend the agreement with the US. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said on Thursday that “any base used for aggression against Iranian territory constitutes a legitimate target for our forces”.

In a statement published on the IRGC-linked Tasnim news agency, the group said American bombing missions had been launched from RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire two days earlier. The statement came after the US carried out a 12th consecutive night of strikes against targets in Iran.

The Ministry of Defence has not commented on whether Fairford was used by the US for operations against Iran this week. The IRGC also accused the “British monarchy regime” of causing being the “primary cause of hardships in our region with a black record of partitioning Islamic nations, widespread massacres, imposing despotic regimes, and organising the occupation of Palestine”.

It warned the government “not to weigh down its record any further”. A spokesperson for the British government said: “Our armed forces are ready to keep the United Kingdom safe from any kind of attacks, whether it’s on our soil or from abroad. The UK stands ready 24/7 to defend itself.

“This includes through operating a layered approach to air and missile defence, provided by Royal Navy, British Army and Royal Air Force assets equipped with a range of advanced capabilities, working closely with our Nato allies. “We are committed to defending our people, our interests and our allies, acting in accordance with international law and not getting drawn into the wider conflict.

” On 1 March a drone struck the RAF base at Akrotiri in Cyprus, hitting a hangar, and prompting a partial evacuation of the facility. On 19 March, Iran fired two ballistic missiles at the UK’s Diego Garcia base in the Chagos Islands. One reportedly failed mid-flight, while the other was shot down by a US airship.

Iran has launched strikes against countries in the Gulf that house US military bases, including Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait, killing American service personnel in some of the attacks. Donald Trump said Iran would “pay a big price” for killing US troops.

On Thursday afternoon, the US president said he was considering ordering a “massive attack” on Iran. “I am close to making a decision,” he told Axios. “We’re all set for it.” He said he believed Iran’s leaders “want to negotiate”, but aren’t yet ready to make a deal.

In another sign of the conflict potentially escalating, Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels said they attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea on Thursday, as oil topped $100 a barrel.

strikeUnverifiedUSIranProxyRussia
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September WTI crude oil (CLU26) on Thursday closed up +5.36 (+6.17%), and September RBOB gasoline (RBU26) closed up +0.0793 (+2.44%). WTI crude oil prices (CLU26) rallied more than +6% on Thursday after the Iran-backed Houthis launched a missile and drone attack on two Saudi Arabian oil tankers in the Red Sea, expanding the oil disruptions beyond the Strait of Hormuz and threatening oil shipments in the Red Sea.

Sep Brent crude oil prices (CBU26) on Thursday rallied above $100 per barrel for the first time since May. President Trump said in an interview with Axios on Thursday that he is considering a “massive attack” that would be “bigger than ever before” and is “close to making a decision on it.

”Don’t Miss a Day: From crude oil to coffee, sign up free for Barchart’s best-in-class commodity analysis. The Houthis have vowed to blockade shipping linked to Saudi Arabia and warned shipowners against calling at the nation's ports. The move threatens Saudi oil exports from Yanbu, a Red Sea hub that the Saudi's are using to ship crude since the war brought shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to a near halt.

Meanwhile, the US and Iran exchanged attacks for the 12th straight day, and the US maintained its blockade of Iranian oil shipments in the Persian Gulf. Global crude oil supplies are tightening due to reduced flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The International Maritime Organization warned last Wednesday that it is too dangerous to cross the Strait of Hormuz at the moment, and visible transit through the strait has fallen sharply as Iran continues targeting tankers attempting to transit it.

Crude prices also have support as Ukraine intensifies drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure. Russian crude production fell to 8.928 million bpd in June, the lowest in 2.5 years, according to monthly OPEC data. According to EA Analytics, Russian crude-processing rates will average 3.

51 million bpd in July, the lowest in 24 years, amid damage to Russian energy infrastructure caused by drone and missile attacks from Ukraine. According to Bloomberg, Ukrainian forces have attacked Russian fuel-producing facilities more than 50 times this year, hitting at least 24 of Russia’s 34 largest refineries.

As of the end of June, around 90% of Russian regions have imposed some form of fuel rationing or reported supply issues, as refining capacity has plunged following damage to facilities. The strikes have deepened a nationwide gasoline shortage, with several major refineries shut down and the government banning almost all gasoline, jet fuel and diesel exports.

Russia is the world’s number two diesel exporter, after the US, according to Vortexa. Stronger Russian crude exports are also adding to global oil supplies, which is bearish for prices. Data compiled by Bloomberg show the four-week average of Russian crude exports rose to 4.

13 million bpd through June 28, the highest since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. Russia may be boosting its crude exports as the country’s refining capacity has plunged due to damage at its refining facilities from Ukraine drone and missile attacks.

The outlook for higher US crude output is negative for oil prices. The Department of Energy (DOE) on July 7 raised its US 2026 crude production estimate to 13.78 million bpd from a June estimate of 13.72 million bpd. As a bearish factor for crude, OPEC delegates said on May 14 that the cartel aims to continue a series of oil quota increases over the next few months, completing the return of halted oil production by the end of September.

The group already formally agreed to restore about two-thirds of the 1.65 million bpd supply cutback it made back in 2023 and said it plans to raise output targets further and to revive the final portion in three more monthly stages. On July 5, OPEC+ said it will boost its crude output by 188,000 bpd in August, though that increase might prove difficult due to revived US-Iran military attacks in the region.

OPEC’s June crude production rose by +2.34 million bpd to 18.75 million bpd. Vortexa reported on Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least 7 days rose +31% w/w to 90.03 million bbl in the week ended July 17. Wednesday’s weekly EIA report was mostly negative for crude oil and products.

EIA crude inventories unexpectedly rose +2.01 million bbl versus expectations of a -1.95 million bbl decline. Also, EIA gasoline supplies rose by +765,000 bbl versus expectations of a -1.9 million bbl decline. In addition, EIA distillate stockpiles rose by +1.

4 million bbl, a larger build than expectations of +825,000 bbl. On the positive side, crude supplies at Cushing, the delivery point for WTI futures, fell -624,000 bbl. Wednesday’s EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of July 17 were -5.

3% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -7.1% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -9.6% below the 5-year seasonal average. US crude oil production in the week ending July 17 fell -0.5% w/w to 13.

798 million bpd, just below the record high of 13.862 million bpd posted in the week of November 7. Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active US oil rigs in the week ended July 17 rose by +7 to a 13-month high of 452 rigs, up from the 4.

25-year low of 406 rigs posted in December 2025. However, the number of US oil rigs remains sharply below the 5.5-year high of 627 reported in December 2022. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article.

All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here. The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIran
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TEL AVIV, July 23. /TASS/. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will deal "a crushing blow" to Iran, if it attacks the Jewish state, Defense Minister Israel Katz warned, according to the Ynet portal. "We are ready for any development of events. If Iran attacks Israel, we will deal a crushing blow," he said.

Earlier on Thursday, US President Donald Trump said that he was considering carrying out a massive attack on Iran, and the strikes would be harder than before. According to the American leader, Israel will "join the attack in two minutes" if requested by the United States.

However, he added that Washington "does not need anyone" to launch a new military operation. Trump did not specify a deadline for making a decision. The United States and Israel started a war with Iran on February 28. In June, Washington and Tehran signed a memorandum of understanding providing for an immediate cessation of hostilities on all fronts, including in Lebanon.

However, on the night of July 8, the United States resumed large-scale strikes against Iran, accusing it of violating the terms of the agreements regarding the Strait of Hormuz.

strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIran
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The British government stated that it stands ready to defend itself following Iranian comments designating UK bases hosting US forces as legitimate targets in response to US military strikes on Iran. Iranian officials described the UK as an accomplice to US operations, while UK policy has allowed US use of bases such as RAF Fairford and Diego Garcia for what the UK has termed defensive purposes.

Permissions for this arrangement, first granted in March, were extended under the current UK government.

Location: Iran