Summary

Russia’s War Against Ukraine: Diplomatic Talks And U.S. Policy – Analysis By Andrew S. Bowen and Cory Welt Key Takeaways: - More than four years into Russia’s full-scale invasion, neither side appears close to a decisive military victory; formal U.S.-mediated peace talks have stalled since February 2026 amid the Iran conflict, with limited prospects for an immediate resumption. - The Trump Administration continues security assistance to Ukraine at reduced levels, largely through NATO-funded procurement of U.S. equipment, while maintaining most sanctions on Russia (with temporary oil-related relief earlier in 2026) and exploring limited defense-industrial cooperation. - Congress is weighing continued support, potential new sanctions legislation, and the costs and benefits of further U.S. mediation, including implications for NATO relations and long-term European security guarantees for Ukraine. The Russian Federation (Russia) launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. More than four years later, Russia and Ukraine remain engaged in Europe’s largest war since World War II. With estimates of up to 2 million or more killed or wounded, and with Russia controlling about 20% of Ukraine’s territory, neither side appears poised to achieve a decisive military victory. In 2026, Ukrainian forces have limited—and in some cases reversed—Russian gains and markedly expanded a campaign of long-range attacks against Russian oil facilities and logistics infrastructure. The second Trump Administration has engaged in efforts to facilitate an end to the Russia-Ukraine war. Formal negotiations were last held in February 2026; whether negotiations will resume—and, if so, when—is uncertain. Members of Congress may evaluate the prospects for, and potential costs and benefits of, continued U.S. mediation between Russia and Ukraine, including implications for U.S. strategic interests. Aspects of Negotiations Building on discussions in 2025, Russian, Ukrainian, and U.S. officials met for the first time in a trilateral format in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, in January 2026. Two rounds of U.S.-mediated talks followed, but formal peace talks have not resumed since U.S.-Israeli military operations against Iran began in late February 2026. In an August 2025 meeting with President Trump in Anchorage, AK, Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly proposed a ceasefire along the line of contact in two of Ukraine’s southern regions, if Ukraine transferred populated areas of its eastern Donetsk region to Russia. This proposal appeared to be included as an element of subsequent talks, but Ukrainian authorities rejected it, maintaining (among other reasons) that the transfer of this heavily fortified “fortress belt” would greatly diminish Ukraine’s ability to defend itself from further Russian aggression. In May 2026 remarks to the press, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Russia-Ukraine talks had not been “fruitful” and the Trump Administration was “not interested in getting involved in an endless cycle of meetings that lead to nothing.” In July 2026, Secretary Rubio referred to the “failed” efforts that began in Anchorage but said “if the opportunity presents itself and the conditions are right,” the United States was “prepared to offer some [new ideas] in the right setting and forum.” In June 2026, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky proposed meeting with President Putin in a neutral country to kickstart negotiations and called for “a full ceasefire for the duration of the negotiations.” President Putin reportedly rejected the proposal and suggested Russia would continue fighting until it achieved its stated goals. Security Cooperation. The Trump Administration has announced new security assistance for Ukraine, at levels lower than from FY2022 to FY2024, while continuing to provide certain previously committed assistance. In 2025, the United States and NATO allies launched the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) initiative, whereby NATO allies fund procurement of U.S. defense articles for Ukraine. As of July 2026, NATO allies and partners had contributed more than $6 billion in PURL-related assistance. Some NATO and European officials reportedly have expressed concern that U.S. military operations against Iran could lead to procurement shortages and delays that may affect assistance to Ukraine. Ukrainian officials state they are running low on air defense munitions to intercept Russian ballistic and hypersonic missiles. Ukraine has concluded some, and is seeking more, joint production and defense agreements and has removed barriers to exporting surplus defense production. Some reports indicate U.S. and Ukrainian officials are exploring ways to improve defense industry cooperation. In July 2026, President Trump indicated the United States was considering options to allow Ukraine to coproduce Patriot missiles but subsequently noted this would be a “big step” and “we have to be very careful.” Ukrainian officials have sought guarantees against further Russian aggression, including through the deployment of Western peacekeeping forces and closer integration with NATO and the European Union. President Trump and other Administration officials have expressed the view that NATO membership for Ukraine is unrealistic while indicating support for the provision of some kind of European-led security guarantees, potentially with U.S. involvement. U.S. Sanctions Against Russia. The Trump Administration generally has maintained previously established U.S. sanctions on Russia. The U.S. Department of the Treasury listed some new entities for sanctions, most notably two of Russia’s largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, and several subsidiaries. After the start of U.S.-Israeli military operations against Iran, the Treasury Department, to help stabilize oil markets, issued a series of general licenses temporarily relaxing sanctions on certain Russian oil exports. The last of these licenses expired on June 17, 2026, and was not renewed. Prisoners, Detainees, and Forcibly Transferred Populations. Talks have addressed the exchange of prisoners of war, the remains of deceased persons, and the release of Ukrainian civilian detainees and forcibly transferred populations, including children. Potential Considerations for Congress Members of Congress may assess the costs and benefits of potential outcomes of U.S.-mediated negotiations and the likelihood of a sustainable ceasefire or peace agreement. Members may evaluate the potential impact of negotiations on other U.S. policy interests, including relations with NATO allies. The Trump Administration and Congress may assess whether and on what terms to provide continued support to Ukraine alongside U.S. allies. For FY2026 and FY2027, Congress authorized $400 million annually in security assistance for Ukraine (P.L. 119-60, §1243); for FY2026, Congress appropriated $400 million in European capacity building, to include Ukraine (P.L. 119-75, Division A). On June 4, 2026, the House of Representatives passed the Ukraine Support Act (H.R. 2913), by a vote of 226-195, following a discharge process on a special rule that provided for the bill’s consideration. On August 7, 2026, the Senate passed (by a vote of 86-11) a revised version of a sanctions bill first introduced in 2025, now titled the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 (S.Amdt. 6711 to H.R. 5334). This bill would reinforce existing sanctions authorities, authorize tariffs against Russia and third countries that import certain Russian products, and expand congressional oversight of most Russia sanctions imposed since 2022. About the authors: - Andrew S. Bowen, Analyst in Russian and European Affairs - Cory Welt, Specialist in Russian and European Affairs Source: This article was published by the Congressional Research Service (CRS). Like what you read? Please consider supporting Eurasia Review. Thank you for your consideration!