strikeJul 18, 2026

The Hormuz Extortion: How Washington's maritime toll weaponizes global trade for big oil

Summary

The flawless synchronization between manufactured military crises and the sudden, record-breaking valuation spikes of defense contractors and fossil fuel executives points to a far more cynical reality. These are not spontaneous failures of diplomacy, but rather meticulously engineered extraction schemes designed to bleed the American taxpayer while weaponizing global trade for elite profit. The recent escalation in the Strait of Hormuz is being packaged by Western mainstream media as a necessary assertion of maritime security, but in reality it represents a brazen act of economic warfare and neo-colonial extortion. The Trump administration's decision to reinstate a naval blockade in the world's most critical oil chokepoint, coupled with the unprecedented demand for a 20% toll on all passing cargo, is not a matter of national defense but a calculated profit play designed to enrich the United States fossil fuel oligarchy and the military-industrial complex while extracting wealth from the American working class and deliberately suffocating the economic growth of China and the broader Asian multipolar bloc. Shale Windfall and the Military-Industrial Pump-and-Dump The immediate consequence of this manufactured crisis is a violent shock to global energy markets, with domestic projections warning that United States gasoline prices are poised to climb back to the $4-per-gallon mark. To understand who truly benefits, one must examine the mechanics of the United States shale industry and the defense sector. Unlike conventional Middle Eastern oil, United States shale operates on much higher break-even thresholds that often require prices of $60 to $70 per barrel just to remain viable. When geopolitical tensions artificially inflate global benchmarks like Brent crude past $85, United States shale does not merely survive but becomes a highly profitable enterprise because the spread between the cost of extraction and the market price widens dramatically to generate massive and unearned windfall profits. The American taxpayer has historically subsidized this industry through generous tax breaks, depleted lease rates on federal lands, and regulatory rollbacks, and now the public is forced to subsidize it again at the pump. This is not merely a long-term yield strategy for energy but a synchronized geopolitical market manipulation scheme spanning both the fossil fuel and defense sectors. As oil prices are artificially driven higher, the perceived demand for the hardware required to sustain the blockade also increases. Over the past month alone, shares of RTX Corporation, a prime contractor for the very missile defense systems and aerospace technology required to maintain this posture, have surged over 7% to inflate its market capitalization to nearly $265 billion. This financial footprint of manufactured conflict ensures that the network of allied financiers, energy executives, and defense lobbyists who positioned themselves ahead of this crisis will quietly sell at the peak to cash out their windfall gains. The American consumer absorbs the inflationary damage through higher fuel, transport, and grocery costs while a subsidized oligarchy pockets the difference and exits the stage. The Micro-Manipulations: Weaponized Volatility and the Win-Win Stock Play Beyond the macro-historical patterns, the most damning evidence of this racket lies in the recent micro-manipulations executed since the first coordinated United States and Israeli strikes on regional Iranian assets. The administration has perfected a cynical mechanism for toggling geopolitical tension, transforming foreign policy into a volatility harvesting machine that operates with brutal simplicity and high profitability for insiders. - The On Switch and the Spike: A sudden and aggressive rhetorical escalation or a leaked threat of imminent strikes causes markets to react instantly, making oil futures jump and defense stocks surge as algorithms and retail traders price in war while insiders and institutional backers watch their already positioned portfolios inflate. - The Off Switch and the Harvest: Just as retail investors rush into the rally, the administration abruptly pivots with a sudden announcement of a temporary de-escalation or a claim of mission accomplished, which triggers a market dip that allows insiders to quietly offload their overvalued shares at the peak to lock in massive profits. - The Win-Win Reset: While the public is distracted by the political theater of peace or strength, these same insiders use their realized gains to buy back into energy and defense stocks at the newly lowered prices so the cycle is primed to repeat with the next manufactured provocation. The Geopolitical Endgame: Bleeding Asia's Economic Rise While the domestic wealth transfer is lucrative for political donors, the 20% maritime toll reveals a far more ambitious geopolitical endgame because the Strait of Hormuz is not merely a conduit for oil but the jugular vein of the Asian economic miracle. The data is stark, with China being the largest importer and receiving approximately 37.7% of all oil exports that pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Other major top importers include India at 14.7%, South Korea at 12.0%, and Japan at 10.9%, meaning Asian countries collectively receive nearly 89% of all crude and condensate flows leaving the strait. By asserting the right to levy a 20% surcharge on shipments that make it through, the United States is attempting to weaponize its residual naval hegemony to impose a de facto tariff on the very heart of the global manufacturing and energy base. This economic warfare by chokepoint has the clear objective of artificially inflating the cost of doing business for China, India, and their regional partners to force them to bleed capital directly into the United States financial system just to maintain their supply chains. Washington is essentially declaring that emerging economies must pay a 20% premium to the American hegemon if they wish to participate in globalized trade, which is a desperate gambit to offset United States domestic economic vulnerabilities by siphoning wealth from its primary geopolitical rivals. The Mirage: Munitions Depletion and Regional Fatigue This aggressive posture entirely ignores the physical and strategic limits of American power, as the United States is already grappling with depleted munitions stockpiles and a strained defense industrial base stretched thin by prolonged proxy conflicts. Sustaining a high-intensity naval blockade and missile defense posture in the Strait of Hormuz is a finite endeavor, and the financial surge of companies like Raytheon masks a stark physical reality. Eventually, the United States will face critical and undeniable shortages of interceptors and precision-guided munitions. Simultaneously, the Middle East will not absorb endless provocation indefinitely, and as regional fatigue sets in and Iranian retaliatory capabilities adapt and expand, the risk of an uncontrollable and asymmetric escalation grows exponentially. Washington is playing a game of chicken with a region that has nothing left to lose while betting on a military endurance it no longer possesses. When the missiles run out and the diplomatic off-ramps have been deliberately burned, the resulting blowback will not be contained to the Middle East but will shatter the very global supply chains the United States claims to be protecting. A Ledger of Manufactured Crisis and Elite Enrichment To fully grasp the cynicism of the current moment, one must recognize that this is not an isolated incident but the culmination of a recurring and highly profitable playbook. Since the administration first initiated unprovoked aggression toward Iran, this exact sequence of provocation, market manipulation, and elite capitalization has been executed with algorithmic precision. Consider the historical ledger: - May 2018 and the JCPOA Withdrawal: The United States unilaterally tore up the Iran nuclear deal to reimpose maximum pressure sanctions, which caused Brent crude to surge from around $70 to over $85 a barrel by late 2018 and allowed United States shale executives and early political major donors to see their portfolios balloon while subsidized by the very taxpayers whose foreign policy security was deliberately undermined. - Mid-2019 and the Gulf of Oman Tanker Incidents: Mysterious attacks and the downing of a United States drone spiked geopolitical fear and severe oil market volatility amid escalating maximum pressure, which high-frequency energy traders and defense lobbyists capitalized on to secure lucrative contracts for increased regional security deployments. - January 2020 and the Assassination of Qasem Soleimani: An unprovoked drone strike on an Iranian general brought the world to the brink of war, causing oil prices to jump 4% overnight and shares of major defense contractors to surge as markets priced in inevitable conflict while the military-industrial complex saw immediate valuation spikes and political war chests were replenished by defense industry political action committees. - July 2026 and the Current Hormuz Blockade: The reinstatement of the naval blockade and the extortionate maritime toll represents the ultimate and synchronized cash-out for the fossil fuel and defense oligarchy, funded by a 20% tax on Asian trade and an invisible inflation tax on the American worker. Conclusion The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz is a masterclass in the weaponization of interdependence, serving as a policy that simultaneously lines the pockets of the United States fossil fuel and defense elites through artificial price spikes and sets up a cynical insider sell-off at the taxpayer's expense. It attempts to place a 20% stranglehold on the trade of China, India, and the emerging multipolar world while gasoline prices climb and global supply chains are deliberately disrupted. The international community must recognize this for what it truly is, which is not a security operation but a predatory and finite extraction scheme. The survival of the global economy depends on the ability of sovereign nations to collectively resist this maritime extortion and accelerate the build-out of a resilient and alternative financial and trade architecture that is entirely immune to the toll booths of Washington.

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The flawless synchronization between manufactured military crises and the sudden, record-breaking valuation spikes of defense contractors and fossil fuel executives points to a far more cynical reality. These are not spontaneous failures of diplomacy, but rather meticulously engi…

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Jul 23, 2026strikeUnverifiedUSIranProxy

UK ‘ready to defend itself’ after Iranian threat over US bases

○ 1 source

The government has said the UK is “ready to defend itself” after Iran’s military warned that any bases being used by the US were “legitimate targets”. The UK has allowed the US to launch “defensive” operations from British bases hosting American planes since the start of its war on Iran but has refused to help in offensive operations.

That policy has not been altered by the new prime minister, Andy Burnham, who was notified last week that a decision had been made to extend the agreement with the US. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said on Thursday that “any base used for aggression against Iranian territory constitutes a legitimate target for our forces”.

In a statement published on the IRGC-linked Tasnim news agency, the group said American bombing missions had been launched from RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire two days earlier. The statement came after the US carried out a 12th consecutive night of strikes against targets in Iran.

The Ministry of Defence has not commented on whether Fairford was used by the US for operations against Iran this week. The IRGC also accused the “British monarchy regime” of causing being the “primary cause of hardships in our region with a black record of partitioning Islamic nations, widespread massacres, imposing despotic regimes, and organising the occupation of Palestine”.

It warned the government “not to weigh down its record any further”. A spokesperson for the British government said: “Our armed forces are ready to keep the United Kingdom safe from any kind of attacks, whether it’s on our soil or from abroad. The UK stands ready 24/7 to defend itself.

“This includes through operating a layered approach to air and missile defence, provided by Royal Navy, British Army and Royal Air Force assets equipped with a range of advanced capabilities, working closely with our Nato allies. “We are committed to defending our people, our interests and our allies, acting in accordance with international law and not getting drawn into the wider conflict.

” On 1 March a drone struck the RAF base at Akrotiri in Cyprus, hitting a hangar, and prompting a partial evacuation of the facility. On 19 March, Iran fired two ballistic missiles at the UK’s Diego Garcia base in the Chagos Islands. One reportedly failed mid-flight, while the other was shot down by a US airship.

Iran has launched strikes against countries in the Gulf that house US military bases, including Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait, killing American service personnel in some of the attacks. Donald Trump said Iran would “pay a big price” for killing US troops.

On Thursday afternoon, the US president said he was considering ordering a “massive attack” on Iran. “I am close to making a decision,” he told Axios. “We’re all set for it.” He said he believed Iran’s leaders “want to negotiate”, but aren’t yet ready to make a deal.

In another sign of the conflict potentially escalating, Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels said they attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea on Thursday, as oil topped $100 a barrel.

Hayden Vernon

Jul 23, 2026strikeUnverifiedUSIranProxyRussia

Oil Prices Soar as US-Iran Conflict Expands to Red Sea

○ 1 source

September WTI crude oil (CLU26) on Thursday closed up +5.36 (+6.17%), and September RBOB gasoline (RBU26) closed up +0.0793 (+2.44%). WTI crude oil prices (CLU26) rallied more than +6% on Thursday after the Iran-backed Houthis launched a missile and drone attack on two Saudi Arabian oil tankers in the Red Sea, expanding the oil disruptions beyond the Strait of Hormuz and threatening oil shipments in the Red Sea.

Sep Brent crude oil prices (CBU26) on Thursday rallied above $100 per barrel for the first time since May. President Trump said in an interview with Axios on Thursday that he is considering a “massive attack” that would be “bigger than ever before” and is “close to making a decision on it.

”Don’t Miss a Day: From crude oil to coffee, sign up free for Barchart’s best-in-class commodity analysis. The Houthis have vowed to blockade shipping linked to Saudi Arabia and warned shipowners against calling at the nation's ports. The move threatens Saudi oil exports from Yanbu, a Red Sea hub that the Saudi's are using to ship crude since the war brought shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to a near halt.

Meanwhile, the US and Iran exchanged attacks for the 12th straight day, and the US maintained its blockade of Iranian oil shipments in the Persian Gulf. Global crude oil supplies are tightening due to reduced flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The International Maritime Organization warned last Wednesday that it is too dangerous to cross the Strait of Hormuz at the moment, and visible transit through the strait has fallen sharply as Iran continues targeting tankers attempting to transit it.

Crude prices also have support as Ukraine intensifies drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure. Russian crude production fell to 8.928 million bpd in June, the lowest in 2.5 years, according to monthly OPEC data. According to EA Analytics, Russian crude-processing rates will average 3.

51 million bpd in July, the lowest in 24 years, amid damage to Russian energy infrastructure caused by drone and missile attacks from Ukraine. According to Bloomberg, Ukrainian forces have attacked Russian fuel-producing facilities more than 50 times this year, hitting at least 24 of Russia’s 34 largest refineries.

As of the end of June, around 90% of Russian regions have imposed some form of fuel rationing or reported supply issues, as refining capacity has plunged following damage to facilities. The strikes have deepened a nationwide gasoline shortage, with several major refineries shut down and the government banning almost all gasoline, jet fuel and diesel exports.

Russia is the world’s number two diesel exporter, after the US, according to Vortexa. Stronger Russian crude exports are also adding to global oil supplies, which is bearish for prices. Data compiled by Bloomberg show the four-week average of Russian crude exports rose to 4.

13 million bpd through June 28, the highest since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. Russia may be boosting its crude exports as the country’s refining capacity has plunged due to damage at its refining facilities from Ukraine drone and missile attacks.

The outlook for higher US crude output is negative for oil prices. The Department of Energy (DOE) on July 7 raised its US 2026 crude production estimate to 13.78 million bpd from a June estimate of 13.72 million bpd. As a bearish factor for crude, OPEC delegates said on May 14 that the cartel aims to continue a series of oil quota increases over the next few months, completing the return of halted oil production by the end of September.

The group already formally agreed to restore about two-thirds of the 1.65 million bpd supply cutback it made back in 2023 and said it plans to raise output targets further and to revive the final portion in three more monthly stages. On July 5, OPEC+ said it will boost its crude output by 188,000 bpd in August, though that increase might prove difficult due to revived US-Iran military attacks in the region.

OPEC’s June crude production rose by +2.34 million bpd to 18.75 million bpd. Vortexa reported on Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least 7 days rose +31% w/w to 90.03 million bbl in the week ended July 17. Wednesday’s weekly EIA report was mostly negative for crude oil and products.

EIA crude inventories unexpectedly rose +2.01 million bbl versus expectations of a -1.95 million bbl decline. Also, EIA gasoline supplies rose by +765,000 bbl versus expectations of a -1.9 million bbl decline. In addition, EIA distillate stockpiles rose by +1.

4 million bbl, a larger build than expectations of +825,000 bbl. On the positive side, crude supplies at Cushing, the delivery point for WTI futures, fell -624,000 bbl. Wednesday’s EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of July 17 were -5.

3% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -7.1% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -9.6% below the 5-year seasonal average. US crude oil production in the week ending July 17 fell -0.5% w/w to 13.

798 million bpd, just below the record high of 13.862 million bpd posted in the week of November 7. Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active US oil rigs in the week ended July 17 rose by +7 to a 13-month high of 452 rigs, up from the 4.

25-year low of 406 rigs posted in December 2025. However, the number of US oil rigs remains sharply below the 5.5-year high of 627 reported in December 2022. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article.

All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here. The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Barchart

Jul 23, 2026strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIran

IDF to deal 'crushing blow' to Iran, if it attacks Israel — Ynet

○ 1 source

TEL AVIV, July 23. /TASS/. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will deal "a crushing blow" to Iran, if it attacks the Jewish state, Defense Minister Israel Katz warned, according to the Ynet portal. "We are ready for any development of events. If Iran attacks Israel, we will deal a crushing blow," he said.

Earlier on Thursday, US President Donald Trump said that he was considering carrying out a massive attack on Iran, and the strikes would be harder than before. According to the American leader, Israel will "join the attack in two minutes" if requested by the United States.

However, he added that Washington "does not need anyone" to launch a new military operation. Trump did not specify a deadline for making a decision. The United States and Israel started a war with Iran on February 28. In June, Washington and Tehran signed a memorandum of understanding providing for an immediate cessation of hostilities on all fronts, including in Lebanon.

However, on the night of July 8, the United States resumed large-scale strikes against Iran, accusing it of violating the terms of the agreements regarding the Strait of Hormuz.

CurrentsAPI

Jul 23, 2026strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIran

UK 'ready to defend itself' after Iran says bases are 'legitimate targets'

○ 1 source

The British government stated that it stands ready to defend itself following Iranian comments designating UK bases hosting US forces as legitimate targets in response to US military strikes on Iran. Iranian officials described the UK as an accomplice to US operations, while UK policy has allowed US use of bases such as RAF Fairford and Diego Garcia for what the UK has termed defensive purposes.

Permissions for this arrangement, first granted in March, were extended under the current UK government.

Location: Iran

Sean Seddon