strikeJul 18, 2026

Trump may have to choose between an endless quagmire and ceding the Strait of Hormuz to Iran | Fortune

Summary

Nearly five months into the war in Iran, the conflict has entered a “second round” as bombs fly throughout the Middle East after a temporary truce collapsed. Iran is again threatening passage through the now-infamous Strait of Hormuz, while the U.S. has reinstated a naval blockade on Iranian oil exports. As the world’s emergency petroleum supplies dangerously dwindle and prices again rise, the Trump administration appears to have lost the upper hand and faces a stark choice: escalate the conflict in a prolonged morass resembling Ukraine, or capitulate and let Iran control the world’s leading energy artery—with the ability to charge service fees for passage and recoup costs, a toll in all but name— energy and geopolitical analysts told Fortune. The decision could shape energy and fuel prices heading into the fall, including the midterm elections, and set a precedent for how far the U.S. will go to defend global shipping lanes. “I don’t think there’s any military option for reopening the Strait of Hormuz,” said Gregory Brew, senior analyst for Iran and energy with the Eurasia Group. “The Iranians have considerable leverage here. I don’t see them backing down and, honestly, time is probably on their side.” Despite being militarily battered and with much of its leadership killed early in the war, the Iranian regime remains steadfast and determined to hold onto its prize—the narrow waterway that controls nearly 20% of the world’s energy flows, Brew said. Whatever the result, the Persian Gulf is unlikely to return to a free flow of energy and trade, he added. “The options are to escalate or cut a deal. And I think the [Trump] administration is likely to do the first, see it fail, and end up with the second,” Brew said. When the 60-day, interim peace deal was reached in mid-June, traffic through the strait began to resume—but not to normal levels—and energy prices plunged as oil markets even began to predict a temporary glut. The global oil benchmark fell from a high of $124 per barrel in early May down to $68 at the start of July, lower than expected. Already though, it surged back above $88 per barrel as of July 17. Global stockpiles are dwindled—the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve is at a 43-year low—U.S. midterm elections are approaching, and China, which sharply cut its imports and leaned on its hefty reserves to help balance the global market, hasn’t yet started buying more oil. “All of the signs point to higher prices and a longer duration,” said oil forecaster Dan Pickering, founder of the Pickering Energy Partners consulting and research firm. “We’re in the fifth month of this. We have fewer strategic reserves. We have less flexibility, less optionality. It’s a more precarious starting point for round two.” Iranian determination As tanker traffic rose in late June and early July, the U.S. encouraged more vessels to take a southern, shallower route closer to Oman through the Strait of Hormuz to avoid making extra payments to Iran. The Iranian regime interpreted this as an existential threat and the ceasefire broke down on July 7 when Iran opened fire on vessels hewing closer to the Omani shoreline. Yet again, the U.S. launched strategic attacks on Iran, and Iran countered with strikes on its Gulf neighbors, including at U.S. military installations. U.S. forces have bombed Iran every night this week, including civilian bridges. The United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Bahrain acknowledged damage to their power grids or refineries from Iran. Kuwait said a water desalination plant was hit for the first time, threatening the primary source of drinking water for the Middle East’s population. Trump even proposed—then quickly shelved—an exorbitant 20% toll on Hormuz traffic. The U.S. position remains that Iran cannot be allowed to charge fees for passage. Still, Brew said it now seems “unrealistic” that an Iranian fee structure—or a so-called “voluntary” payment scheme—can be avoided, even though tolls violate international maritime law. “The Iranians felt that they won. They came out of the war [in June] believing they were entitled to a more permanent role in managing the Strait of Hormuz,” Brew said. “They see the war as having justified their view that the strait essentially belongs to them.” The 60-day memorandum of understanding treaty never properly addressed control of the strait, and now it’s undone. “The Iranians have illustrated time and again that if you hit them, it only strengthens their resolve to maintain their position and avoid giving any concessions,” Brew added. The average U.S. price for a gallon of regular unleaded has climbed back to $4 a gallon again this weekend. During the war, the U.S. has exported record volumes of oil and refined fuel, helping push refining margins to all-time highs while keeping prices at the pump inflated. Refinery outages—voluntary or not—in the Middle East, China, and Russia are keeping fuel prices higher worldwide. With the U.S. midterm elections approaching in November and Trumply keep aware of inflation and gasoline costs, analysts argued that U.S. acquiescence to Iran over Hormuz becomes more likely. Iranian fees on tankers may be reduced to a secondary concern. “Any question about tolling’s impact on [oil] volumes is downstream of a more basic one—whether the strait is reliably open at all,” said Claire Jungman, director of maritime risk and intelligence for Vortexa. If the U.S. cedes control to Iran, at least the strait would be open, even if traffic may never fully normalize. With Iran’s Gulf neighbors hesitant to pay fees, they will keep diverting as many barrels via pipelines as possible while rapidly building new pipelines and ports to render Hormuz less relevant long term. Spurred by the war, the UAE is doubling the size of its West-East pipeline and planning a new Fujairah port to bypass Hormuz and move more oil directly into the Gulf of Oman. Iraq is building the Basra-Haditha Pipeline, creating pathways to oil hubs in Turkey, Syria, and Jordan. Saudi Arabia has rapidly expanded pipeline shipments to export oil through the Red Sea, but new attacks from the Iran-aligned Houthi rebels in Yemen could threaten the alternate route. Iran may win the battle but lose influence long term, Pickering said. Its leverage is strongest right now and should diminish over time. “What we’re going to wind up with in five years is multiple export routes out of the Middle East.” Instead of fighting over Hormuz routes closer to Iran or Oman, “Those would just be two of maybe six ways to get oil out of the Middle East.” Precarious petroleum supplies The Trump administration clearly believed it—and Israel—could strike Iran hard and fast, forcing regime change or bending Iran to Trump’s will, similar to the Venezuelan operation in January that emboldened the president, said Brew. The administration failed to heed warnings that Iran was stronger militarily, more radicalized, and held more strategic and geographic influence. Now, U.S. commercial energy stockpiles and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) are rapidly being depleted, and only China—which has slashed its crude imports by nearly 5 million barrels a day—has kept prices from spiraling out of control. But China can only keep that up for so long before it starts to buying more barrels. “We’re not in crisis territory [yet], but there’s less breathing room at a time of intense global uncertainty,” said David Russell, global head of market strategy at the TradeStation brokerage firm. “Oil remains a top risk…given its importance in inflation and, ultimately, monetary policy. The SPR draws can’t continue forever.” Iran has clearly demonstrated the heightened value of the Strait of Hormuz, and that’s why it’s so insistent on maintaining control at any cost militarily and economically to wait out the U.S, Pickering said. “We’ve seen how expensive it is to shut everything off. The irony is before all this started that value was there for free for all the participants. “So, are you going to wind up worse off? Yes.” And the U.S. has very limited options pressing forward, Brew said.“Trump can escalate and potentially widen the conflict to one that causes even more damage and pushes oil prices even higher.” Or he can try to outlast Iran, a middle path that seems unlikely to succeed. Or he cedes the strait to Iran to reopen it. Because emergency oil stockpiles aren’t depleted—yet—and the price per barrel remains below $100, Brew expects Trump to attempt an escalation that’s now playing out before he feels he’s truly running out of options in a month or two. “My sense is that things are going to get worse before they get better,” Brew said. The U.S. is intensifying its attacks, and Iran is targeting more energy infrastructure of its Gulf neighbors, including potentially the Saudi’s Red Sea traffic, he added. Even another peace deal is unlikely to last, he said. “It’s not going to be fully resolved. We’re likely to see continued flareups, continued rounds of skirmishing and hostilities. I don’t expect anything more durable than an interim deal that allows traffic to resume somewhat.” In the meantime, “We’re going to see more fireworks in the next two or three weeks before we see any kind of progress towards de-escalation or accommodation.”

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Jordan BlumBy Jordan Blum
Nearly five months into the war in Iran, the conflict has entered a “second round” as bombs fly throughout the Middle East after a temporary truce collapsed. Iran is again threatening passage through the now-infamous Strait of Hormuz, while the U.S. has reinstated a naval blockad…

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Jul 23, 2026strikeUnverifiedUSIranProxy

UK ‘ready to defend itself’ after Iranian threat over US bases

○ 1 source

The government has said the UK is “ready to defend itself” after Iran’s military warned that any bases being used by the US were “legitimate targets”. The UK has allowed the US to launch “defensive” operations from British bases hosting American planes since the start of its war on Iran but has refused to help in offensive operations.

That policy has not been altered by the new prime minister, Andy Burnham, who was notified last week that a decision had been made to extend the agreement with the US. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said on Thursday that “any base used for aggression against Iranian territory constitutes a legitimate target for our forces”.

In a statement published on the IRGC-linked Tasnim news agency, the group said American bombing missions had been launched from RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire two days earlier. The statement came after the US carried out a 12th consecutive night of strikes against targets in Iran.

The Ministry of Defence has not commented on whether Fairford was used by the US for operations against Iran this week. The IRGC also accused the “British monarchy regime” of causing being the “primary cause of hardships in our region with a black record of partitioning Islamic nations, widespread massacres, imposing despotic regimes, and organising the occupation of Palestine”.

It warned the government “not to weigh down its record any further”. A spokesperson for the British government said: “Our armed forces are ready to keep the United Kingdom safe from any kind of attacks, whether it’s on our soil or from abroad. The UK stands ready 24/7 to defend itself.

“This includes through operating a layered approach to air and missile defence, provided by Royal Navy, British Army and Royal Air Force assets equipped with a range of advanced capabilities, working closely with our Nato allies. “We are committed to defending our people, our interests and our allies, acting in accordance with international law and not getting drawn into the wider conflict.

” On 1 March a drone struck the RAF base at Akrotiri in Cyprus, hitting a hangar, and prompting a partial evacuation of the facility. On 19 March, Iran fired two ballistic missiles at the UK’s Diego Garcia base in the Chagos Islands. One reportedly failed mid-flight, while the other was shot down by a US airship.

Iran has launched strikes against countries in the Gulf that house US military bases, including Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait, killing American service personnel in some of the attacks. Donald Trump said Iran would “pay a big price” for killing US troops.

On Thursday afternoon, the US president said he was considering ordering a “massive attack” on Iran. “I am close to making a decision,” he told Axios. “We’re all set for it.” He said he believed Iran’s leaders “want to negotiate”, but aren’t yet ready to make a deal.

In another sign of the conflict potentially escalating, Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels said they attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea on Thursday, as oil topped $100 a barrel.

Hayden Vernon

Jul 23, 2026strikeUnverifiedUSIranProxyRussia

Oil Prices Soar as US-Iran Conflict Expands to Red Sea

○ 1 source

September WTI crude oil (CLU26) on Thursday closed up +5.36 (+6.17%), and September RBOB gasoline (RBU26) closed up +0.0793 (+2.44%). WTI crude oil prices (CLU26) rallied more than +6% on Thursday after the Iran-backed Houthis launched a missile and drone attack on two Saudi Arabian oil tankers in the Red Sea, expanding the oil disruptions beyond the Strait of Hormuz and threatening oil shipments in the Red Sea.

Sep Brent crude oil prices (CBU26) on Thursday rallied above $100 per barrel for the first time since May. President Trump said in an interview with Axios on Thursday that he is considering a “massive attack” that would be “bigger than ever before” and is “close to making a decision on it.

”Don’t Miss a Day: From crude oil to coffee, sign up free for Barchart’s best-in-class commodity analysis. The Houthis have vowed to blockade shipping linked to Saudi Arabia and warned shipowners against calling at the nation's ports. The move threatens Saudi oil exports from Yanbu, a Red Sea hub that the Saudi's are using to ship crude since the war brought shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to a near halt.

Meanwhile, the US and Iran exchanged attacks for the 12th straight day, and the US maintained its blockade of Iranian oil shipments in the Persian Gulf. Global crude oil supplies are tightening due to reduced flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The International Maritime Organization warned last Wednesday that it is too dangerous to cross the Strait of Hormuz at the moment, and visible transit through the strait has fallen sharply as Iran continues targeting tankers attempting to transit it.

Crude prices also have support as Ukraine intensifies drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure. Russian crude production fell to 8.928 million bpd in June, the lowest in 2.5 years, according to monthly OPEC data. According to EA Analytics, Russian crude-processing rates will average 3.

51 million bpd in July, the lowest in 24 years, amid damage to Russian energy infrastructure caused by drone and missile attacks from Ukraine. According to Bloomberg, Ukrainian forces have attacked Russian fuel-producing facilities more than 50 times this year, hitting at least 24 of Russia’s 34 largest refineries.

As of the end of June, around 90% of Russian regions have imposed some form of fuel rationing or reported supply issues, as refining capacity has plunged following damage to facilities. The strikes have deepened a nationwide gasoline shortage, with several major refineries shut down and the government banning almost all gasoline, jet fuel and diesel exports.

Russia is the world’s number two diesel exporter, after the US, according to Vortexa. Stronger Russian crude exports are also adding to global oil supplies, which is bearish for prices. Data compiled by Bloomberg show the four-week average of Russian crude exports rose to 4.

13 million bpd through June 28, the highest since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. Russia may be boosting its crude exports as the country’s refining capacity has plunged due to damage at its refining facilities from Ukraine drone and missile attacks.

The outlook for higher US crude output is negative for oil prices. The Department of Energy (DOE) on July 7 raised its US 2026 crude production estimate to 13.78 million bpd from a June estimate of 13.72 million bpd. As a bearish factor for crude, OPEC delegates said on May 14 that the cartel aims to continue a series of oil quota increases over the next few months, completing the return of halted oil production by the end of September.

The group already formally agreed to restore about two-thirds of the 1.65 million bpd supply cutback it made back in 2023 and said it plans to raise output targets further and to revive the final portion in three more monthly stages. On July 5, OPEC+ said it will boost its crude output by 188,000 bpd in August, though that increase might prove difficult due to revived US-Iran military attacks in the region.

OPEC’s June crude production rose by +2.34 million bpd to 18.75 million bpd. Vortexa reported on Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least 7 days rose +31% w/w to 90.03 million bbl in the week ended July 17. Wednesday’s weekly EIA report was mostly negative for crude oil and products.

EIA crude inventories unexpectedly rose +2.01 million bbl versus expectations of a -1.95 million bbl decline. Also, EIA gasoline supplies rose by +765,000 bbl versus expectations of a -1.9 million bbl decline. In addition, EIA distillate stockpiles rose by +1.

4 million bbl, a larger build than expectations of +825,000 bbl. On the positive side, crude supplies at Cushing, the delivery point for WTI futures, fell -624,000 bbl. Wednesday’s EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of July 17 were -5.

3% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -7.1% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -9.6% below the 5-year seasonal average. US crude oil production in the week ending July 17 fell -0.5% w/w to 13.

798 million bpd, just below the record high of 13.862 million bpd posted in the week of November 7. Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active US oil rigs in the week ended July 17 rose by +7 to a 13-month high of 452 rigs, up from the 4.

25-year low of 406 rigs posted in December 2025. However, the number of US oil rigs remains sharply below the 5.5-year high of 627 reported in December 2022. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article.

All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here. The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Barchart

Jul 23, 2026strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIran

IDF to deal 'crushing blow' to Iran, if it attacks Israel — Ynet

○ 1 source

TEL AVIV, July 23. /TASS/. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will deal "a crushing blow" to Iran, if it attacks the Jewish state, Defense Minister Israel Katz warned, according to the Ynet portal. "We are ready for any development of events. If Iran attacks Israel, we will deal a crushing blow," he said.

Earlier on Thursday, US President Donald Trump said that he was considering carrying out a massive attack on Iran, and the strikes would be harder than before. According to the American leader, Israel will "join the attack in two minutes" if requested by the United States.

However, he added that Washington "does not need anyone" to launch a new military operation. Trump did not specify a deadline for making a decision. The United States and Israel started a war with Iran on February 28. In June, Washington and Tehran signed a memorandum of understanding providing for an immediate cessation of hostilities on all fronts, including in Lebanon.

However, on the night of July 8, the United States resumed large-scale strikes against Iran, accusing it of violating the terms of the agreements regarding the Strait of Hormuz.

CurrentsAPI

Jul 23, 2026strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIran

UK 'ready to defend itself' after Iran says bases are 'legitimate targets'

○ 1 source

The British government stated that it stands ready to defend itself following Iranian comments designating UK bases hosting US forces as legitimate targets in response to US military strikes on Iran. Iranian officials described the UK as an accomplice to US operations, while UK policy has allowed US use of bases such as RAF Fairford and Diego Garcia for what the UK has termed defensive purposes.

Permissions for this arrangement, first granted in March, were extended under the current UK government.

Location: Iran

Sean Seddon