Iranian ballistic missiles struck Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan over the weekend, with the Pentagon confirming light material damage though initially withholding specific casualty or loss details. While unverified social media footage suggested significant impacts, CBS News reported based on anonymous officials that several US military aircraft were damaged, including at least one A-10 Thunderbolt potentially being knocked out of commission.

The IMF stated it is closely monitoring the potential economic impacts of proposed US measures to tighten restrictions on Iran and enforce secondary sanctions, with a fuller assessment planned for upcoming reports. This economic pressure follows a shift from large-scale military strikes to sanctions, occurring after both sides signed a memorandum of understanding in June that included an immediate cessation of hostilities.

The IAEA reported observing construction activity at Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain, a fortified site near Tehran that the agency has not yet inspected, though remote imagery suggests new movement. While President Trump publicly cited this reported activity to warn against Iranian deception, independent verification of the site’s specific nuclear capabilities remains limited due to access restrictions and historical disputes over IAEA integrity.

Iran is increasingly relying on the Houthis in Yemen and allied militias in Iraq to pressure Saudi Arabia and other US allies in the Gulf, according to regional officials and experts. In July, Saudi Arabia and the US struck Iran-backed Iraqi militias after the groups were blamed for drone attacks on Saudi oil facilities claimed by the Houthis.

Two Saudi officials and a senior Iraqi security official told Reuters that Houthi representatives had worked from an operations room run by Iraqi militias to plan and carry out the two-day drone attack. Officials from Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces denied involvement.

The shift comes after several of Iran’s most important regional allies and partners suffered major losses in the wars that followed Hamas’ October 7, 2023, attack on Israel. Israel severely weakened Hamas and Hezbollah, while US and Israeli strikes also targeted Iran and allied groups elsewhere in the region.

Regional officials and experts say Tehran has increasingly relied on the Houthis and Iraqi militias to pressure Saudi Arabia and other US allies in the Gulf. Geopolitics · Middle East Conflict Yemen on the Brink: Civil War & Global Oil Shipping How Houthi escalation and Red Sea shipping threats threaten regional stability and global energy markets.

40M+ Population 150K Past Casualties Buckling Ceasefire Yemen is moving closer to a return to civil war as a 2022 ceasefire with the internationally recognized government and Saudi-backed coalition buckles. Over 40 million residents fear a renewal of the conflict that previously brought widespread famine and humanitarian crisis.

Red Sea Port of Mokha Residents report that Houthi rebels have entered the key Red Sea port of Mokha, previously held by the government. This endangers a crucial entry point for food and humanitarian assistance in a country where many remain hungry and beyond the reach of aid.

Bab el-Mandeb Approach If the Houthis take Mokha, it marks a significant step toward the Bab el-Mandeb strait, creating further complications for vital Red Sea shipping lanes as global traffic diverts away from the targeted Strait of Hormuz. Testing Blockades Weeks ago, the Houthis tested a Saudi-led blockade of rebel-held areas.

In response, Saudi airstrikes hit the international airport in the rebel-held capital of Sanaa, following Houthi attacks on oil facilities and utilities in Saudi Arabia that wounded dozens. Targeting Saudi Oil Alternatives With the Iran war choking the Strait of Hormuz, the Houthis are targeting Saudi efforts to ship oil via the Red Sea, aligning with Tehran's war aims to limit oil shipments from the Gulf and inflict economic pain on US-allied Saudi Arabia.

$1 Trillion Red Sea Goods >$100 Crude Oil / Bbl Expanding Houthi Control Analyst Ahmed Nagi notes that the Houthis now control a much larger stretch of the western coast, bringing them closer to Bab al-Mandeb and posing a flashing danger sign for global energy consumers already rattled by high crude prices.

The immediate threat is now concentrated on Yemen’s Red Sea coast. Four Yemeni government military sources told Reuters on Thursday that the Houthis had seized Mocha, a historic port city about 80 km from the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The Associated Press reported that two residents said Houthi forces had entered and spread across the city, although it could not independently verify their accounts.

The Houthis have also advanced towards the strategic Hanish Islands, according to Yemeni government sources, while government forces and their allies are moving south towards Dhubab. The town sits directly on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, opposite the island of Perim.

Story continues below this ad Control of Dhubab and Perim would give either side a crucial position from which to influence traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Key shipping route at risk Bab el-Mandeb links the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and is a critical route for ships carrying oil, fuel and other goods between Asia, Europe and the Middle East via the Suez Canal.

Its importance has increased as the conflict with Iran has severely disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for Gulf oil exports. Saudi Arabia has been sending more oil through the Red Sea as an alternative to the disrupted Strait of Hormuz.

But the alternative route is now also coming under pressure from the Houthis. Story continues below this ad The Houthis have attacked Saudi oil facilities and shipping in the Red Sea and declared a naval blockade against Saudi shipping. Yemen risks return to full-scale civil war The fighting also raises the risk of Yemen returning to full-scale civil war.

A UN-brokered truce in 2022 largely stopped years of major fighting between the Houthis and forces supporting Yemen’s internationally recognised government. Recent clashes are now threatening that fragile calm. More than 20,000 people have been displaced by fighting in Taiz and Hodeida over the past two weeks, according to Yemeni government data cited by Reuters.

Hundreds of women and children also left Mocha on Thursday. Story continues below this ad Saudi Arabia says recent Houthi attacks on civilian and economic sites in its south have wounded 73 people, including women and children. The Houthis, meanwhile, said Saudi strikes hit several provinces in Yemen.

Saudi Arabia has not confirmed those strikes. Saudi warning sent to Iran Saudi, Pakistani and Iranian sources told Reuters that Pakistan conveyed a Saudi warning to Tehran asking it to rein in the Houthis. A senior Iranian official told Reuters that Tehran does not control the Houthis.

Two other Iranian sources, however, told the news agency that Tehran had instructed the Houthis to attack Saudi Arabia and promised additional funding and weapons. Story continues below this ad The Houthi advance towards Bab el-Mandeb therefore adds another danger to the regional conflict: Yemen risks sliding back into full-scale war while another major route for global oil and trade comes under growing pressure.

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