Why the Iran-US ceasefire is falling apart

Russian Federation Council Deputy Chairman Konstantin Kosachev stated on July 21 that geopolitical tensions, including Houthi-related disruptions near Saudi Arabia and risks to the Bab al-Mandab Strait, are increasing interest in the Northern Sea Route as a shipping alternative.

He attributed this partly to the route lying within Russian territorial waters and noted sanctions since 2022 as ongoing barriers, while citing figures on oil and LNG volumes through the Strait of Hormuz. Kosachev made the remarks at a Federation Council roundtable on Northern Sea Route development.

International mediators have proposed a 10-day ceasefire between the United States and Iran, according to a senior Iranian official cited in reports. The measure is described as intended to reduce hostilities and allow renewed talks on a prior interim agreement.

Both sides are assessing next steps in the current regional security situation.

Reports indicate that a US-Iran ceasefire has broken down amid renewed fighting, with the potential impact of mediation efforts by Pakistan, Qatar, and Oman remaining unclear. Earlier diplomatic steps included a June memorandum of understanding between the parties for further negotiations and talks hosted in Geneva in February.

The summary also references Europe’s historical role in diplomacy, including the 1814-15 Congress of Vienna.

Donald Trump stated in a Fox News interview that his representatives had spoken with Iranian officials an hour earlier and that those officials wanted to make a deal to end the conflict, though he noted they had broken prior agreements and expressed uncertainty about whether one would be reached.

He added that people do not want to die and that Iran would need to proceed carefully to avoid further losses. The remarks come amid an ongoing US-Iran conflict that has involved casualties and shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, with some social media users criticizing the repetition of similar statements.