strikeJul 20, 2026

Why the Red Sea remains one of the world's most dangerous shipping routes

Summary

The warning has raised fears that the Iran conflict could threaten another critical shipping route, putting global energy supplies, international trade and maritime security under pressure. Also Read: Iran tells Houthis to close Red Sea gateway if US hits power network, sources say The concern is significant because the Red Sea has become even more important after disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil transit route between the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea. With Saudi Arabia shifting more crude exports through its Red Sea route to keep shipments flowing, any attack or blockade around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait could affect one of the world’s last major alternatives for Gulf energy exports. According to a Reuters report citing multiple sources, Iran has signalled that Yemen’s Houthi rebels could be prepared to disrupt shipping in the Red Sea if US attacks on Iran continue. The Houthis have reportedly positioned missiles and drones near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The latest threat has brought renewed attention to a waterway that has already faced repeated attacks, forcing shipping companies to reroute vessels, increasing costs and disrupting global supply chains. Why is the Red Sea important for global trade?The Red Sea is a narrow but strategically important waterway located between northeast Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. For centuries, it has served as a major trade route, but its importance increased significantly after the opening of Egypt’s Suez Canal in 1869. The canal created a direct maritime connection between the Mediterranean Sea and the Indian Ocean, allowing ships travelling between Asia and Europe to avoid the much longer route around Africa. Today, the Red Sea and the Suez Canal together form one of the most important shipping corridors in the world. Also Read: After Hormuz, Iran turns to Red Sea gateway as new pressure point Every day, vessels carrying a wide range of goods pass through the route, including: - Crude oil and petroleum products - Liquefied natural gas (LNG) - Food grains - Electronics - Automobiles - Machinery - Consumer goods The northern end connects with the Mediterranean Sea through the Suez Canal. This makes the Bab el-Mandeb and the Suez Canal together a vital bridge between Asian manufacturing hubs and European markets. Before Houthi attacks disrupted shipping in 2023, nearly 10% of global seaborne trade passed through Bab el-Mandeb annually. Why has the Red Sea become strategically important for oil markets?The Red Sea’s importance has increased further because of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz, located between Iran and Oman, is one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints, with around one-fifth of global oil supplies traditionally passing through it. After tensions disrupted traffic through Hormuz, Gulf countries began relying more heavily on alternative routes. Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude exporter, has used pipelines connecting its oil fields to the Red Sea port of Yanbu to continue exporting crude. Saudi Arabia diverted more than 70% of its normal daily crude exports to Yanbu, according to data from Kpler and Signal Ocean. Shipments from Yanbu averaged around 4 million barrels per day in recent weeks, compared with about 973,000 barrels per day during the same period last year. Kpler data showed that petroleum volumes moving through Bab el-Mandeb reached 7.4 million barrels per day in June, accounting for around 7% of global oil output. This has helped limit the impact of disruptions elsewhere. However, any serious threat to the Red Sea route could create pressure on global oil markets because both major energy corridors would face risks at the same time. Why is the Red Sea considered dangerous?The Red Sea is considered dangerous because of a combination of geography, regional conflicts and the presence of armed groups capable of targeting commercial vessels. The biggest vulnerability is the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The waterway is narrow, meaning ships have limited room to manoeuvre. Even limited attacks using missiles, drones or small boats can force shipping companies to temporarily suspend operations. The route became a major security concern after Yemen’s Houthi rebels began attacking commercial vessels following the October 2023 Hamas attack on Israel and Israel’s military campaign in Gaza. The Houthis said they were targeting ships linked to Israel in support of Palestinians. However, their definition of vessels connected to Israel expanded, resulting in attacks affecting broader commercial shipping. Major shipping companies, including Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, diverted vessels away from the Red Sea and sent them around the Cape of Good Hope at the southern tip of Africa. The alternative route adds thousands of miles to journeys, increases fuel consumption and raises insurance and freight costs. Who are the Houthis and why do they matter?The Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, are a Yemeni political and military movement that emerged in the northern province of Saada during the 1990s. The group began as a movement opposing Yemen’s government and later became a major military force during Yemen’s civil war. In 2014, the Houthis seized control of Yemen’s capital Sanaa, triggering a conflict with the internationally recognised government backed by Saudi Arabia and its allies. The Houthis now control large parts of northern Yemen, including areas along the Red Sea coastline. Iran supports the Houthis as part of its regional “Axis of Resistance”, which includes groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iraqi Shiite militias. However, the relationship is complicated. While Iran provides political and military support, the Houthis have their own domestic goals and do not always act directly on Tehran’s instructions. The United States has accused Iran of providing weapons, funding and training to the Houthis. The group denies being an Iranian proxy and says it develops its own military capabilities. What happened during earlier Red Sea attacks?The Houthis previously disrupted global shipping after launching attacks on commercial vessels in late 2023. The attacks caused shipping traffic through the Red Sea to decline sharply as companies prioritised safety over shorter routes. The disruption affected global supply chains, with businesses facing: - Longer delivery times - Higher shipping costs - Rising insurance premiums - Increased fuel expenses The US and UK also carried out strikes against Houthi positions, while European naval missions supported maritime security operations. Although attacks later reduced, the latest warnings have raised concerns that the Red Sea could again become a major conflict zone. Why is Iran threatening the Red Sea route?Analysts believe Iran’s warning about the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is aimed at increasing pressure on the United States and its allies. While the Strait of Hormuz remains Iran’s strongest strategic leverage point, the Red Sea provides another way to affect global trade. A senior Houthi official, Mohammad al-Farah, warned that the group could close Bab el-Mandeb if tensions escalated. "If the current situation aggravates, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Strait of Hormuz will be closed in an operational alliance. Oil prices would then skyrocket to $200 a barrel in a dreadful shock," he warned. Middle East scholar Fawaz Gerges told Reuters that Iran was signalling its ability to threaten both major maritime chokepoints. "Iran is willing to go all the way," Gerges told Reuters. He added that the message from Tehran was that "not only Hormuz, but Bab al-Mandab, is at risk." However, analysts say the Houthis may not immediately move against shipping, as doing so could invite retaliation from the US and Israel and risk their fragile truce with Saudi Arabia. How Red Sea attacks affect global shippingA prolonged Red Sea crisis could affect the global economy in several ways. Higher oil pricesAny disruption to Gulf energy exports could reduce available supplies and push crude prices higher. Increased shipping costsLonger routes around Africa increase fuel consumption, insurance costs and freight charges. Supply chain delaysIndustries dependent on Asian-European trade routes could face delays in receiving goods and components. Inflation risksHigher energy and transport costs could increase prices for consumers worldwide. What does the Red Sea crisis mean for India?The Red Sea is particularly important for India because a significant share of its trade with Europe, North Africa and parts of North America passes through the Suez Canal. Any disruption could affect India through: - Higher crude oil import costs - Increased freight and insurance expenses - Delays in exports and imports - Additional inflationary pressure For India, the Red Sea crisis is not only a geopolitical issue but also a trade and energy security concern. The Red Sea has become one of the world’s most important and vulnerable shipping routes because it connects major markets, carries critical energy supplies and sits at the intersection of several geopolitical conflicts. The latest Iran-Houthi warnings have increased fears that the conflict could spread beyond the Gulf and threaten another global trade artery. Whether the threat remains a warning or turns into actual disruption will determine the next challenge for global shipping, energy markets and economies dependent on stable trade routes. (You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel) (You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel)

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The warning has raised fears that the Iran conflict could threaten another critical shipping route, putting global energy supplies, international trade and maritime security under pressure. Also Read: Iran tells Houthis to close Red Sea gateway if US hits power network, sources s…

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Jul 23, 2026strikeUnverifiedUSIranProxy

UK ‘ready to defend itself’ after Iranian threat over US bases

○ 1 source

The government has said the UK is “ready to defend itself” after Iran’s military warned that any bases being used by the US were “legitimate targets”. The UK has allowed the US to launch “defensive” operations from British bases hosting American planes since the start of its war on Iran but has refused to help in offensive operations.

That policy has not been altered by the new prime minister, Andy Burnham, who was notified last week that a decision had been made to extend the agreement with the US. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said on Thursday that “any base used for aggression against Iranian territory constitutes a legitimate target for our forces”.

In a statement published on the IRGC-linked Tasnim news agency, the group said American bombing missions had been launched from RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire two days earlier. The statement came after the US carried out a 12th consecutive night of strikes against targets in Iran.

The Ministry of Defence has not commented on whether Fairford was used by the US for operations against Iran this week. The IRGC also accused the “British monarchy regime” of causing being the “primary cause of hardships in our region with a black record of partitioning Islamic nations, widespread massacres, imposing despotic regimes, and organising the occupation of Palestine”.

It warned the government “not to weigh down its record any further”. A spokesperson for the British government said: “Our armed forces are ready to keep the United Kingdom safe from any kind of attacks, whether it’s on our soil or from abroad. The UK stands ready 24/7 to defend itself.

“This includes through operating a layered approach to air and missile defence, provided by Royal Navy, British Army and Royal Air Force assets equipped with a range of advanced capabilities, working closely with our Nato allies. “We are committed to defending our people, our interests and our allies, acting in accordance with international law and not getting drawn into the wider conflict.

” On 1 March a drone struck the RAF base at Akrotiri in Cyprus, hitting a hangar, and prompting a partial evacuation of the facility. On 19 March, Iran fired two ballistic missiles at the UK’s Diego Garcia base in the Chagos Islands. One reportedly failed mid-flight, while the other was shot down by a US airship.

Iran has launched strikes against countries in the Gulf that house US military bases, including Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait, killing American service personnel in some of the attacks. Donald Trump said Iran would “pay a big price” for killing US troops.

On Thursday afternoon, the US president said he was considering ordering a “massive attack” on Iran. “I am close to making a decision,” he told Axios. “We’re all set for it.” He said he believed Iran’s leaders “want to negotiate”, but aren’t yet ready to make a deal.

In another sign of the conflict potentially escalating, Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels said they attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea on Thursday, as oil topped $100 a barrel.

Hayden Vernon

Jul 23, 2026strikeUnverifiedUSIranProxyRussia

Oil Prices Soar as US-Iran Conflict Expands to Red Sea

○ 1 source

September WTI crude oil (CLU26) on Thursday closed up +5.36 (+6.17%), and September RBOB gasoline (RBU26) closed up +0.0793 (+2.44%). WTI crude oil prices (CLU26) rallied more than +6% on Thursday after the Iran-backed Houthis launched a missile and drone attack on two Saudi Arabian oil tankers in the Red Sea, expanding the oil disruptions beyond the Strait of Hormuz and threatening oil shipments in the Red Sea.

Sep Brent crude oil prices (CBU26) on Thursday rallied above $100 per barrel for the first time since May. President Trump said in an interview with Axios on Thursday that he is considering a “massive attack” that would be “bigger than ever before” and is “close to making a decision on it.

”Don’t Miss a Day: From crude oil to coffee, sign up free for Barchart’s best-in-class commodity analysis. The Houthis have vowed to blockade shipping linked to Saudi Arabia and warned shipowners against calling at the nation's ports. The move threatens Saudi oil exports from Yanbu, a Red Sea hub that the Saudi's are using to ship crude since the war brought shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to a near halt.

Meanwhile, the US and Iran exchanged attacks for the 12th straight day, and the US maintained its blockade of Iranian oil shipments in the Persian Gulf. Global crude oil supplies are tightening due to reduced flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The International Maritime Organization warned last Wednesday that it is too dangerous to cross the Strait of Hormuz at the moment, and visible transit through the strait has fallen sharply as Iran continues targeting tankers attempting to transit it.

Crude prices also have support as Ukraine intensifies drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure. Russian crude production fell to 8.928 million bpd in June, the lowest in 2.5 years, according to monthly OPEC data. According to EA Analytics, Russian crude-processing rates will average 3.

51 million bpd in July, the lowest in 24 years, amid damage to Russian energy infrastructure caused by drone and missile attacks from Ukraine. According to Bloomberg, Ukrainian forces have attacked Russian fuel-producing facilities more than 50 times this year, hitting at least 24 of Russia’s 34 largest refineries.

As of the end of June, around 90% of Russian regions have imposed some form of fuel rationing or reported supply issues, as refining capacity has plunged following damage to facilities. The strikes have deepened a nationwide gasoline shortage, with several major refineries shut down and the government banning almost all gasoline, jet fuel and diesel exports.

Russia is the world’s number two diesel exporter, after the US, according to Vortexa. Stronger Russian crude exports are also adding to global oil supplies, which is bearish for prices. Data compiled by Bloomberg show the four-week average of Russian crude exports rose to 4.

13 million bpd through June 28, the highest since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. Russia may be boosting its crude exports as the country’s refining capacity has plunged due to damage at its refining facilities from Ukraine drone and missile attacks.

The outlook for higher US crude output is negative for oil prices. The Department of Energy (DOE) on July 7 raised its US 2026 crude production estimate to 13.78 million bpd from a June estimate of 13.72 million bpd. As a bearish factor for crude, OPEC delegates said on May 14 that the cartel aims to continue a series of oil quota increases over the next few months, completing the return of halted oil production by the end of September.

The group already formally agreed to restore about two-thirds of the 1.65 million bpd supply cutback it made back in 2023 and said it plans to raise output targets further and to revive the final portion in three more monthly stages. On July 5, OPEC+ said it will boost its crude output by 188,000 bpd in August, though that increase might prove difficult due to revived US-Iran military attacks in the region.

OPEC’s June crude production rose by +2.34 million bpd to 18.75 million bpd. Vortexa reported on Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least 7 days rose +31% w/w to 90.03 million bbl in the week ended July 17. Wednesday’s weekly EIA report was mostly negative for crude oil and products.

EIA crude inventories unexpectedly rose +2.01 million bbl versus expectations of a -1.95 million bbl decline. Also, EIA gasoline supplies rose by +765,000 bbl versus expectations of a -1.9 million bbl decline. In addition, EIA distillate stockpiles rose by +1.

4 million bbl, a larger build than expectations of +825,000 bbl. On the positive side, crude supplies at Cushing, the delivery point for WTI futures, fell -624,000 bbl. Wednesday’s EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of July 17 were -5.

3% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -7.1% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -9.6% below the 5-year seasonal average. US crude oil production in the week ending July 17 fell -0.5% w/w to 13.

798 million bpd, just below the record high of 13.862 million bpd posted in the week of November 7. Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active US oil rigs in the week ended July 17 rose by +7 to a 13-month high of 452 rigs, up from the 4.

25-year low of 406 rigs posted in December 2025. However, the number of US oil rigs remains sharply below the 5.5-year high of 627 reported in December 2022. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article.

All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here. The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Barchart

Jul 23, 2026strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIran

IDF to deal 'crushing blow' to Iran, if it attacks Israel — Ynet

○ 1 source

TEL AVIV, July 23. /TASS/. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will deal "a crushing blow" to Iran, if it attacks the Jewish state, Defense Minister Israel Katz warned, according to the Ynet portal. "We are ready for any development of events. If Iran attacks Israel, we will deal a crushing blow," he said.

Earlier on Thursday, US President Donald Trump said that he was considering carrying out a massive attack on Iran, and the strikes would be harder than before. According to the American leader, Israel will "join the attack in two minutes" if requested by the United States.

However, he added that Washington "does not need anyone" to launch a new military operation. Trump did not specify a deadline for making a decision. The United States and Israel started a war with Iran on February 28. In June, Washington and Tehran signed a memorandum of understanding providing for an immediate cessation of hostilities on all fronts, including in Lebanon.

However, on the night of July 8, the United States resumed large-scale strikes against Iran, accusing it of violating the terms of the agreements regarding the Strait of Hormuz.

CurrentsAPI

Jul 23, 2026strikeUnverifiedUSIsraelIran

UK 'ready to defend itself' after Iran says bases are 'legitimate targets'

○ 1 source

The British government stated that it stands ready to defend itself following Iranian comments designating UK bases hosting US forces as legitimate targets in response to US military strikes on Iran. Iranian officials described the UK as an accomplice to US operations, while UK policy has allowed US use of bases such as RAF Fairford and Diego Garcia for what the UK has termed defensive purposes.

Permissions for this arrangement, first granted in March, were extended under the current UK government.

Location: Iran

Sean Seddon