Following the outbreak of military conflict with Iran on February 28, 2026, the Strait of Hormuz was reportedly closed, constituting a geopolitical disruption to oil supply. Recent Federal Reserve Bank research has been cited to quantify potential effects on global output under various scenarios, though specific claims regarding the closure's scope and impact remain subject to verification.

As of June 5, 2026, the impact of a reported U.S. blockade on Iranian oil exports is currently under assessment, with trade intelligence firm Kpler compiling relevant data. Further verification is required to confirm the specific extent of these logistical disruptions.

On June 18, 2026, mediators including Qatar and Pakistan reported the first major diplomatic breakthrough in the 2025–2026 negotiations, a development that appears to have shifted the dynamic between the US and Iran.

From April 13 to May 29, 2026, the United States implemented a blockade of Iranian ports. Prior to the start of the conflict, it was reported that approximately 25% of global seaborne oil trade and 20% of another unspecified sector were at stake, though the full scope of the latter figure was not specified in the provided text.