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Oil Slides As Qatar Floats New Iran Deal, Bessent Promises Hormuz Breakthrough: 'May Have Deal Tomorrow'
Oil Slides As Qatar Floats New Iran Deal, Bessent Promises Hormuz Breakthrough: 'May Have Deal Tomorrow' Another fake ceasefire in progress? Or are we to believe it's for real this time? There's nothing on the ground-level at all that currently suggests the warring sides are imminently about to agree to a new ceasefire, or are so much as back at the negotiating table. And yet Tuesday morning headlines are now being driven by a Qatari Foreign Ministry statement saying that "language" for a possible US-Iran resolution "has been drafted" and "is being circulated between the parties." via Doha News Ministry spokesman Majed Al-Ansari didn't offer any time line for a potential deal in relaying the statement before a press briefing but said that current diplomatic efforts are focused on preventing further escalation, reopening the Strait of Hormuz and creating conditions to resume talks. He described that the focus is on short term resolution that would restart US-Iran talks and return the sides to mediation, but also admitted that there's "nothing the the books when it comes to direct talks." This comes as President Trump has told Iran that he wants to see a deal done on the Hormuz Strait immediately, per Bloomberg. This was enough for regional media, including Israel's i24 to report 'progress' in the Omani mediated Hormuz talks, with the American side - as yet only participating indirectly - said to be "much more" flexible in their demands than even the Omani side, amid Iranian recalcitrance. "Iran has conveyed a message: any solution that we agree to and sign must also be approved by Washington," i24 has written. This somewhat forced and perhaps manufactured return yet again to peace optimism has sent oil sliding... The day prior, President Trump continued to address Tehran in threatening language, however. He said before reporters in the Oval Office: "I want to give them every last chance before decapitation. Very tough to do what what we have planned, still planned. We'll see what happens, but it's very very tough thing to do. I think I'm very proud of the fact that I will give people a chance." Just on the heels of the above 'draft deal' headlines, and in a carefully timed CNBC appearance, Washington brought out its heavy hitter to re-anchor the administration's narrative, seeking to assure markets that a diplomatic deal with Tehran is not only real, but imminent - potentially coming together even as soon as Tuesday through Wednesday. "We may have an Iran deal tomorrow to open Hormuz," Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent declared, signaling that a major diplomatic resolution is within reach. He pointed out that physical maritime traffic is already quietly resuming, regardless of headline volatility. Bessent gets dragged in to justify "imminent Iran deal" as algos no longer reacting to $100,000 Truth Social API — zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 4, 2026 Bessent claimed the administration is seeing "quite a few ships coming out of Hormuz, even now," suggesting the chokehold is loosening ahead of an actual deal and formal signature. With physical crude flows expected to resume, Bessent predicted that elevated energy prices will soon settle down, paving the way for a massive "relief trade" across broader markets: "We are in talks with the Iranians, and I think there is a chance we may have a deal today or tomorrow to open the Strait and move towards a more normalized position in this conflict,” Bessent said in an interview with CNBC. Asked if Tehran would be allowed to charge a toll, Bessent said the deal would allow freedom of movement in the strait. "It would be freedom of movement," he said. "Even though things are still a little dicey there over the past few days, we saw quite a few ships coming out even now.” Of course, we've heard all of this before, and notably Bessent's commentary came just after Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian insisted that while Tehran would defend its borders, it does not seek to expand the war, according to state media. An advisor to the Supreme Leader also reiterated that if the blockade continues, US vessels and forces will face serious risks and casualties. And there's this not so small hiccup in the strait emerging Tuesday: A vessel has been struck in the Strait of Hormuz near Oman, the UK maritime security firm Vanguard says. One crew member is missing. 🔺 Senior Iranian figure warns US forces will “face serious risks and casualties” if the Hormuz blockade continues Mohsen Rezaei, senior military advisor to the Supreme Leader and former longtime commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), warned that US vessels… https://t.co/Oozl8C5sLw — Drop Site (@DropSiteNews) August 4, 2026 Looming large over all of this is the fact that the Iranians have still denied that they are in formal talks with Washington, which Trump the day prior described as a ruse, venting his frustration while insisting that the Iranians have been engaging. The Hormuz blueprint as it basically stands: Reuters: Iran would gain full control over vessels entering the Strait of Hormuz under a temporary plan being discussed with Oman, an Iranian official says. Outbound vessels would use the route between Iran and Oman, with Oman approving their exit only after notifying Tehran. The plan would give Iran full visibility over outbound traffic and the ability to intervene if needed and Iran is unlikely to accept any other proposal to open the strait The Bessent clip: Bessent on Iran: We've seen Trump, last week, threaten what would have been the largest military campaign since World War II against the Iranians, and now, because of that, we are in talks with the Iranians. I think there's a chance we may have a deal today or tomorrow to open… pic.twitter.com/mnel0A16O0 — Clash Report (@clashreport) August 4, 2026 * * * Amid the sudden and dubious return to 'optimism', let's recount how we got here... Trump's Iran Strike Threats: A Timeline March 21: Trump threatened to "hit and obliterate" Iranian power plants unless Hormuz reopened within 48 hours. March 23: Delayed strikes for five days, citing "productive conversations" with Iran. April 7: Warned "a whole civilization will die tonight."Hours later: A two-week ceasefire was announced. April 21: Said he expected "to be bombing" if talks failed.Later that day: Extended the ceasefire. May 17: Warned, "the Clock is Ticking." May 18: Paused planned strikes after requests from Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. June 11: Said the U.S. would hit Iran "VERY HARD TONIGHT."Hours later: Canceled the operation, saying a deal was near. August 1: Said the U.S. was "locked and loaded."Later: Called off the attack to pursue a deal with Tehran. Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 08:40
Oil Slides As Qatar Floats New Iran Deal, Bessent Promises Hormuz Breakthrough: 'May Have Deal Tomorrow'
Oil Slides As Qatar Floats New Iran Deal, Bessent Promises Hormuz Breakthrough: 'May Have Deal Tomorrow'
Oil Slides As Qatar Floats New Iran Deal, Bessent Promises Hormuz Breakthrough: 'May Have Deal Tomorrow'
Oil Slides As Qatar Floats New Iran Deal, Bessent Promises Hormuz Breakthrough: 'May Have Deal Tomorrow'
Oil Slides As Qatar Floats New Iran Deal, Bessent Promises Hormuz Breakthrough: 'May Have Deal Tomorrow'
Oil Slides As Qatar Floats New Iran Deal, Bessent Promises Hormuz Breakthrough: 'May Have Deal Tomorrow'
Oil Slides As Qatar Floats New Iran Deal, Bessent Promises Hormuz Breakthrough: 'May Have Deal Tomorrow'
Oil Slides As Qatar Floats New Iran Deal, Bessent Promises Hormuz Breakthrough: 'May Have Deal Tomorrow'
Oil Slides As Qatar Floats New Iran Deal, Bessent Promises Hormuz Breakthrough: 'May Have Deal Tomorrow'
Oil Slides As Qatar Floats New Iran Deal, Bessent Promises Hormuz Breakthrough: 'May Have Deal Tomorrow'
Oil Slides As Qatar Floats New Iran Deal, Bessent Promises Hormuz Breakthrough: 'May Have Deal Tomorrow'
Oil Slides As Qatar Floats New Iran Deal, Bessent Promises Hormuz Breakthrough: 'May Have Deal Tomorrow'
Oil Slides As Qatar Floats New Iran Deal, Bessent Promises Hormuz Breakthrough: 'May Have Deal Tomorrow'
Oil Slides As Qatar Floats New Iran Deal, Bessent Promises Hormuz Breakthrough: 'May Have Deal Tomorrow'
Oil Slides As Qatar Floats New Iran Deal, Bessent Promises Hormuz Breakthrough: 'May Have Deal Tomorrow'
Oil Slides As Qatar Floats New Iran Deal, Bessent Promises Hormuz Breakthrough: 'May Have Deal Tomorrow'
Russia Using Dating Apps to Lure Ukrainian Soldiers Into Deadly Honey Traps
Russia Using Dating Apps to Lure Ukrainian Soldiers Into Deadly Honey Traps
Russia Using Dating Apps to Lure Ukrainian Soldiers Into Deadly Honey Traps
The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) warned that Russian intelligence services have significantly intensified efforts to assassinate Ukrainian soldiers using “honey traps” – attempts to kill military personnel through fake online dating encounters. The SBU’s military counterintelligence unit on Tuesday said it has foiled more than 50 such assassination attempts since the start of 2026. JOIN US ON TELEGRAM Follow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official. How the honey traps work To lure soldiers into “honey traps,” Russian operatives primarily use dating websites and themed messenger chats, the SBU said. Enemy agents use fake accounts on these platforms to offer soldiers romantic relationships. Russian intelligence then arranges meetings with the soldiers, inviting them to pre-prepared locations for assassination. The most common method is improvised explosive devices planted at the site of the planned attack. Russian operatives also use deadly poisons synthesized from narcotics, psychotropic substances, and other chemicals. Poison in medicine, methadone in a bottle In March 2025, an FSB agent was detained in Kharkiv region after she handed a Ukrainian soldier medicine and food products laced with poison under the guise of “volunteer” assistance. In another case, a Russian agent sent a Ukrainian soldier a bottle containing a drink laced with a lethal dose of methadone. She then suggested he drink the “gift” during an online video date. SBU operatives intercepted the package before the soldier received it. A chemical analysis confirmed the presence of poisonous substances that could have caused death. Russia May Target Water Supply This Winter, Kyiv Warns FSB killer stabbed soldier six times In January 2026, the SBU’s military counterintelligence detained an FSB-directed assassin who attempted to stab a Ukrainian soldier in Zaporizhzhia. According to case materials, Russian intelligence lured the soldier to an industrial area under the pretext of a “date” with a woman from a dating site. Instead, a masked attacker appeared and attacked the soldier from behind, stabbing him six times in the neck, chest, abdomen, and right leg. The SBU detained the attacker and identified the woman who, acting on FSB orders, communicated with the victim from a fake account and lured him to the assassination site. Investigations ongoing The SBU said investigations are ongoing under multiple articles of Ukraine’s Criminal Code, including: - Article 111 (treason); - Article 115 (premeditated murder); - Article 258 (terrorist act); - Those convicted face life imprisonment with confiscation of property. You can also highlight the text and press Ctrl + Enter
Oil shortages escalate from wars in Iran and Ukraine, with few signs of relief
The global energy crisis triggered by two wars is set to worsen, as Ukraine pummels Russia’s refining industry and Iranian attacks continue on Middle Eastern oil production and refining. Further, the nature of the destruction and the growing number of fronts and warring parties involved may herald a new era of extended vulnerability for countries that depend on imports for their energy. Throughout most of modern history, wars have targeted energy infrastructure, including oil wells, refineries, pipelines, export terminals and power plants. But the latest weapons technology – autonomous drones and automated seafaring vessels – are defeating existing defense systems. The resulting damage is increasing the threat that crucial oil shipping lanes around the world may be slowed or stopped for long periods of time, and not just in the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, at the southern entrance to the Red Sea. The world has been able to muddle through the first few months of the Iran war, but the earliest efforts to keep oil markets balanced are running out of time. First, there were shipments of Middle Eastern oil that had already moved through the Strait of Hormuz before it was closed, which arrived in ports across the world in March and April 2026. Then a group of governments released strategic stocks of oil to the market, while some countries adopted oil conservation policies such as shifting to remote work. At the same time, refining capacity – the facilities that convert crude oil into products, such as diesel fuel and gasoline – has been extremely compromised. Goldman Sachs is estimating that globally, the refining deficit – including bombed Russian refineries and products that cannot exit the Strait of Hormuz or the Black Sea – totals 6.5 million barrels a day. Now, as more energy infrastructure gets destroyed, preventing a deeper crisis will be harder to achieve. And winter isn’t all that far away. The growing war in the Middle East Attacks by Iran and its proxies, often using aerial drones, have created widespread, lasting damage to Middle East energy infrastructure. For instance, more than 1.2 million barrels per day of oil refining capacity across the region is out of operation due to physical damage, according to J.P. Morgan. The conflict continues to escalate. For instance, on July 27, drones reportedly launched from southern Iraq by Iranian-aligned militants hit crude processing towers at the critical Saudi oil production hub of Abqaiq. Similar attacks by Iran in 2019 sharply reduced Saudi Arabia’s ability to produce oil. Saudi crude oil and refined petroleum product exports are also hindered by attacks on shipping through the Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb straits. A U.S.-Saudi military response against the Iraqi militias raised tensions that the war might spread. And on July 30, drone attacks on an Egyptian port on the Mediterranean Sea signaled that another area might be vulnerable to the widening war. Since early in the war, Saudi Arabia has depended on the Mediterranean for its oil exports, sending 5 million barrels a day through the Suez Canal and Egypt’s SUMED pipeline. Ukrainian attacks inside Russia In its war against Russia, Ukraine’s mastery of long-range drones has resulted in successful bombing of over 11 major Russian refining complexes, knocking out a significant share of Russia’s fuel-making capability. Estimates vary from somewhere between 30% and 50% to as high as 60% of the nation’s refining capacity. Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia’s refining system are primarily intended to harm Moscow’s war effort by limiting military fuel supplies and war funding from exports of refined products. Yet online images show Russian drivers sitting in cars for hours waiting to get a few gallons of fuel. The attacks have also led Russia to ban diesel fuel exports – which, before 2022, supplied half of Europe’s diesel. Ripple effects, including hunger In addition to blocking crude oil shipments, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has cut off the flow of about 20% of the world’s supply of liquefied petroleum gas. That is a hard-to-replace cooking fuel widely used in India and China, among other countries. As far back as April 2026, people in India were having trouble finding and affording gas with which to cook, forcing them to skip meals. India is looking to increase the volume of liquefied petroleum gas it buys from the U.S. to ease shortages. Other pressures are also closing in on the world’s petroleum supplies from other directions. Seaborne drones launched by Ukraine in the Black Sea have at least temporarily blocked most crude oil exports from Kazakhstan, which needs that waterway to ship its oil to the Mediterranean Sea and beyond. Houthi separatists in Yemen used aerial drones to close off the southern end of the Red Sea in the early 2020s, blocking a key alternate route for oil shipments around the Strait of Hormuz. They are reportedly set to do so again. Those technologies and tactics are spreading to other oil-rich regions of the globe. For instance, separatists in Colombia used drones to attack oil production equipment in late July. Possibilities for hope? Since the Iran war started, China’s imports of crude oil and petroleum-related products have dropped by about 3.6 million barrels per day, roughly one-third of its prewar imports. In fact, Chinese refiners actually started reselling crude oil in global markets to earn money to make up for reduced activity in Chinese refineries. One explanation is China is tapping its strategic oil reserves, but it is also possible that an economic slowdown, combined with the country’s massive build-out of alternative fuels and renewables, is curbing the need for imported oil-based fuel. Chinese petrochemical firms are also buying ethane from the U.S. to replace cut-off supplies from the Middle East. On the supply side, in Brazil, production by government-owned oil company Petrobras is up 14% over 2025 levels and is operating refineries at full capacity. As a result, its import needs have dropped substantially, offering some relief to markets in the Americas. Venezuelan oil production has risen from 937,000 barrels a day in 2025 to 1.2 million barrels a day in mid-2026. Most of that increase is from oil companies that were operating in Venezuela before the U.S. removed former President Nicolás Maduro. A few new deals to buy Venezuelan oil have been signed, but the flood of investment the Trump administration hoped for has yet to materialize. Venezuela’s laws and political instability are making companies wary, and some are still seeking repayments from when their assets were seized by then-President Hugo Chávez in 2009. Risks of inflation and long-term vulnerability For now, rising oil and gas production and refinery output in the United States has shielded Americans from significant petroleum shortages. But there are many ways in which that situation could change. Worsening global supply disruptions could eventually translate into higher market prices on a wide range of goods and commodities, which would push U.S. inflation rates higher. Ultimately, the new methods of drone-based warfare against energy facilities and shipping are a major national security concern for the U.S. and all major economies that rely on energy shipments and imports of other goods to underpin their economies. Countries will now need to work toward energy security in a world with insecure global sea lanes, more extreme weather and expanded geopolitical conflict. Having researched and tracked the geopolitics of global energy markets for decades, I expect that those efforts will focus on determining what energy sources each country has within its own borders. And given the geographical and geological limits of fossil fuels, I anticipate more countries will seek to accelerate the already speedy development of renewable energy like wind and solar power to minimize the risks of wars interrupting their energy supply.
Oil shortages escalate from wars in Iran and Ukraine, with few signs of relief
Oil shortages escalate from wars in Iran and Ukraine, with few signs of relief
Iranian president denies reports of resignation
Iranian president denies reports of resignation
Iranian president denies reports of resignation
Iranian president denies reports of resignation
Iranian president denies reports of resignation
Iranian president denies reports of resignation
Iranian president denies reports of resignation
Iranian president denies reports of resignation
Iranian president denies reports of resignation
Iranian president denies reports of resignation
Iranian president denies reports of resignation
Iranian president denies reports of resignation
Iranian president denies reports of resignation
Iranian president denies reports of resignation