Live ingestion is paused. Weâre migrating our backend to a new database. The archive is up to date through Jul 16, 2026 (20 daysago). Fresh events will resume once the migration finishes â historical analysis is fully available.
Conflict Events Archive
108,443 documented events ¡ latest Jul 16, 2026 â chronological archive with full summaries and multi-source verification.
US expands strikes to northern Iran and disables ship trying to breach blockade | BreakingNews
The US intensified its strikes on Iran early on Thursday, hitting targets further north as American forces also fired into a ship the US accused of trying to break its naval blockade on the Islamic Republic. Iran retaliated with missile and drone fire targeting US allies in the region before dawn and warned its attacks may escalate. Days of back-and-forth strikes by the US and Iran across the Middle East, and renewed threats to the Strait of Hormuz, have shredded the interim deal to end the Iran war and could tip the region back into all-out war. Already, Iranian officials say US strikes have killed more than 35 people and wounded more than 300 others. Strikes also reached into areas around Iranâs capital, Tehran, for the first time in the latest round of violence, showing a widening set of targets for the Americans. https://x.com/CENTCOM/status/2077563991069499714?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw When the US and Israel launched the war on Iran on February 28, Tehran effectively closed the strait to shipping traffic, a move that sent the price of oil, fertiliser and many other goods soaring far beyond the region and gave Iran major leverage in negotiations. Colonel Ebrahim Zolfaghari, a spokesperson for the Iranian militaryâs Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, threatened that Iran could launch widespread attacks on regional infrastructure if the US acts on President Donald Trumpâs repeated warnings that America could hit Iranian bridges and power plants. âAll the infrastructure in the region will be crushed under the steel blows of the powerful armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iranâ should Mr Trumpâs threat be carried out, he said. âUnder no circumstances and in no way will we allow America, as a foreign and extra-regional country, to interfere in the Strait of Hormuz,â he added. âThis is Iranâs invincible red line.â The US strikes on Thursday hit around Tehran, state media reported. It also reported that American attacks targeted Semnan province, home to Iranâs ballistic missile production and space programme. Iranian media also reported strikes around the provinces of Hamedan, Hormozgan, Khuzestan, Lorestan, Markazi, and Sistan and Baluchistan. On Wednesday, the US resumed striking Iran during daylight, further showing the increasing tempo of the attacks. An attack on Greater Tunb Island, a strategic point in the Strait of Hormuz, targeted Iranian defence and missile sites, Central Command said. https://x.com/CENTCOM/status/2077496765553811628?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw Meanwhile, the US military said it opened fire on the Curacao-flagged oil tanker Belma sailing toward Kharg Island, Iranâs main oil export terminal in the Persian Gulf. After the ship âignored multiple warningsâ, a US aircraft disabled the merchant vessel by firing a missile into its smokestack. Another American strike on Wednesday targeted a barracks for Iranâs 388th Mechanized Infantry Brigade, which operates tanks and armoured vehicles, in Sistan and Baluchestan province, Iranian state television reported. The report said Americans fired at least 13 missiles in the attack and the seven dead included conscripts and career soldiers. A number of troops were wounded. Iran retaliated on Thursday morning with missile and drone attacks on Bahrain, Jordan and Kuwait, authorities in those countries home to US forces said. Kuwait reported a new round of incoming fire later on Thursday. Meanwhile, Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi condemned an overnight drone attack on the city of Irbil in Iraqâs semiautonomous northern Kurdish region. The drone, which authorities said had been intercepted, came during his trip to the US in which he said Iraq would work to disarm non-state armed groups, including those backed by Iran. The latest round of fighting is focused on the Strait of Hormuz, as Iran attacks ships using a US-controlled route through the vital waterway. The US has threatened to reopen the strait by force, but experts say that would require a much bigger armada if not tens of thousands of ground troops. The price of Brent crude oil, the international standard, traded above 85 dollars a barrel on Thursday, more than 15% higher than the price before the war, but still well below the nearly 120 dollars reached at the height of the conflict. Mr Trump again said Iran was ready to strike a peace deal, but he did not elaborate. âThey donât like what weâre doing, and they do want to settle. Weâll find out whether or not we settle with them, or we just finish it off,â he said on Wednesday.
US gas prices edge up again as US-Iran tensions heighten over strait of Hormuz
The average price of diesel fuel in the US has increased again to more than $5 a gallon, according to the AAA, and the average price of gas is almost $4, returning to their highs before the June memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran. Itâs a reminder to consumers and truckers of the costs of the Iran war and the unpredictable rhetoric from both Washington and Tehran. A year ago today, the AAA says, the average price for a gallon of diesel was $3.72, almost a dollar and a quarter less than it is now. Earlier this week, Iran declared the strait of Hormuz shut, after both Iran and the US claimed to be the guarantors of safe passage through the strategic waterway. Then the US announced it was imposing a blockade on all ship traffic to or from Iranian ports. The renewed diplomatic uncertainty and new US and Iranian airstrikes are driving prices higher both at the pump and on the international wholesale markets. The price of a barrel of oil stands at about $81. Thatâs still down from the highs during the most intense part of Trumpâs war in Iran but wholesale prices recently have been driven by erratic news from the White House. On Monday, the president suddenly announced the US would take over the strait and charge 20% of the value of any cargo going though the waterway, but then dropped the plan.
Futures Slide After Another Korea Rout, TSMA Results Revive AI Fears
Futures Slide After Another Korea Rout, TSMA Results Revive AI Fears Futures are lower, erasing much of yesterday's gain with both Nasdaq and Rusell lagging SPX, following a continued rollercoaster in Korea where stocks tumbled after the BOK hired rates for the first time in 3 years. As of 8:15am ET, S&P futures dropped 0.3%, while Nasdaq 100 contracts dropped 0.8%. In premarket trading, semis are weaker again while Mag7 is stronger (AMZN, GOOG, META, and MSFT all up are least 1.2%) with the market having "a defensive tilt as the AI theme is poised to move lower" per JPM. A strong earnings beat and raised sales outlook from TSMC failed to trigger fresh gains for the sector that has fueled most of this yearâs stock market gains. Europeâs Stoxx 600 was down 0.6%. WTI trading in a tighter range into Trumpâs speech, AI / Semis are driving mkts with TSM ADRs indicated -3.5% their print may not be enough to buoy the group. Korea moves to tighten rules around levered ETFs, so more near-term downside may ensue. US to set 25% tariff for Brazil on July 22, ex-beef / coffee / ethanol products. Pre-mkt, bond yields are +2bp with USD flat. Commodities are lower across all 3 complexes though base metals are bid. Todayâs macro data focus is on Retail Sales where a stronger print may pull some inflows into consumer-related segments, which still have light positioning. In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed (Alphabet +1.3%, Microsoft +1.3%, Amazon +0.7%, Meta +0.3%, Apple +0.4%, Tesla -0.2%, Nvidia -1.5%) AtaiBeckley (ATAI) leaps 34% as Eli Lilly is in talks to acquire the psychedelic drugmaker, according people familiar with the matter. Analysts are positive about the psychedelic sector; RBC singles out GH Research (GHRS +18%) for a direct read-across. GE Aerospace (GE) declines 4% after the worldâs largest jet-engine manufacturer posted second quarter results and provided an updated forecast. United Airlines (UAL) falls 3% after the airlineâs updated full-year adjusted EPS forecast trailed the average analyst estimate. UnitedHealth Group (UNH) is up 7% after the health conglomerate raised its outlook for the year and reported quarterly profit well ahead of Wall Streetâs views, helping to solidify the companyâs earnings recovery after a historic collapse. Shares of peer insurers are up on the news: Humana (HUM) +5%, Centene (CNC) +3%. In other corporate news Hyundai Motor is moving to acquire SoftBankâs remaining stake in Boston Dynamics, securing full ownership of the robotics pioneer at a steep discount. ABB agreed to buy British industrial components company Rotork for an enterprise value of around $5.5 billion to expand its electrification and automation businesses. Japan is planning to buy 27,500 next-generation Rubin chips from Nvidia to build a homegrown foundational AI model for robots. Jensen Huang said Nvidiaâs next-generation AI accelerator systems were in production and on track for delivery. The AI frenzy is showing up in Asia airlinesâ cargo bays helping to mitigate the surge in jet fuel costs. TSMC hiked sales and spending projections for the year, signaling its confidence in the demand for chips and data centers holding up through 2027 and beyond. However, American depositary receipts for the firm are down 4.6% during premarket trading, while peers like Micron, Marvell and Nvidia also declined. With TSMCâs results, concern around AI â and the capital spending behind it â has been brought back to the forefront. Traders have become more critical over AI this year, rotating out of stocks linked to the technology on the basis that the spending has failed to produce meaningful returns. Chipmakersâ leading role in this yearâs equity advances is increasingly coming under strain as traders grapple with lofty stock valuations and whether AI hyperscalers are building more capacity than they will need. Investors are also looking for opportunities to rotate to other sectors within the AI trade that will benefit from the global buildout at more attractive prices. The latest rout in Korean stocks (full discussion in a subsequent post), sparked selling in tech names, even after Taiwan chip giant TSMC raised its spending and revenue projections for the year, reflecting its confidence that torrid growth in demand for chips and data centers will extend into 2027. TSMC also plans to spend an additional $100 billion to expand US chipmaking capacity. Still, such strong earnings alone arenât sustaining the momentum trade, signaling that investors are reducing risk. Indeed, as Goldman noted yesterday, we have now seen the worst monthly plunge in high beta momentum since the Global Financial Crisis. With signs of memory capacity expansion, and Chinese competition ramping - investors might begin to look through perceived low P/E multiples and focus on a more cyclical measure of price/book, which paints a contrasting picture.  Koreaâs Kospi was hit particularly hard, down 6.4%, as its two main heavyweights, Samsung and SK Hynix both fell more than 10%. Korean authorities moved to curb volatility, announcing a temporary halt on new listings of single-stock leveraged exchange-traded products tied to the chipmakers. âThereâs been a lot of concentration in the market and that means thereâs little room for error,â said Richard Flynn, managing director at Charles Schwab UK. âGlobal geopolitical risk is elevated and so thereâs a relative tone of caution fundamentally looking at the macro outlook.â âThereâs been a lot of rotation within the AI trade, and a small rotation more broadly,â said Toni Meadows, head of investments at BRI Wealth Management. âItâs probably a healthy thing to have consolidation. The further things go, the more stretched they get and then the reaction is bigger.â After two days in which softer-than-expected inflation data saw traders dial back their expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes this year, June retail sales numbers will put the spotlight on the strength of American consumers. In geopolitics, the IEA boss warned the global economy is in peril if the Hormuz crisis persists. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer offered praise for Switzerlandâs stance in trade negotiations and its investments in the US, a positive sign for the European nation as it looks to secure a 15% tariff and avoid further confrontation with Trump. The US will begin charging a 25% tariff on imports of certain goods from Brazil following an investigation alleging that the country engaged in unfair trade practices. In hedge fund news, King Street Capital Management told clients itâs significantly restricting withdrawals from its main hedge fund, moving investors who want to exit to a separate vehicle that will sell off the assets over time. European equities edged lower on Thursday with the Stoxx 600 down 0.4%, as utilities and telecommunications shares led declines, while the biggest outperformers are media and banking stocks. Here are the biggest movers Thursday Indutrade shares surge as much as 14% after the Swedish flow control equipment firmâs second-quarter results beat estimates. Analysts at SB1 Markets said the company is poised to win consensus upgrades Diploma shares rise as much as 5.4%, the most in nearly two months, as the equipment supplier upgrades full-year guidance again Publicis shares rise as much as 4% after the advertising agency raised the low-end of its organic revenue growth guidance, saying new business wins are contributing about 2 percentage points of extra growth on FY basis DeâLonghi rises as much as 4.9% in Milan, the most since May, after Goldman Sachs initiated coverage with a buy rating, citing the household appliance makerâs exposure to the growing espresso coffee market Dunelm shares rise as much as 5.6%, hitting a four-month high, after the homeware retailer reported better sales growth in the fourth quarter compared to the exit rate coming out of the third Telenor shares fall as much as 13%, the steepest drop since October 2008, after the Nordic telecom operator reported second-quarter results that missed estimates and lowered its full-year guidance ABB falls as much as 4.1%, erasing an initial gain of 1%, after the industrial group reported second-quarter results with focus on the companyâs announcement that it would buy Rotork for $5.5 billion Partners Group shares fall as much as 8.2%, the most in six weeks, after the Swiss alternative asset managerâs first-half net inflows disappointed analysts Experian shares fell as much as 7.1%, as the credit checking companyâs first-quarter organic revenue growth moderates. Analysts say the results were largely expected Frasers shares drop as much as 5.9%, underperforming the FTSE 250 Index on Thursday morning, after the UK retailer reported weaker-than-expected adjusted pretax profit for the year Ocado shares slide as much as 17%, to the lowest price since 2013, after the online grocery firm confirmed further delays to multiple customer fulfillment centers Asian stocks slumped as investors accelerated semiconductor selling, dragging down sectorâheavy markets and souring broader sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid as much as 2% before paring some losses, as the stock markets in South Korea, Japan and mainland China registered losses. Koreaâs Kospi was hit particularly hard, down 6.4%, as its two main heavyweights, Samsung and SK Hynix both fell more than 10%. Korean authorities moved to curb volatility, announcing a temporary halt on new listings of single-stock leveraged exchange-traded products tied to the chipmakers. Hong Kongâs Hang Seng Index bucked the trend to gain 1.3%, as investors rotated into the Chinese internet giants such as Alibaba and Tencent. Most Southeast Asian markets, such as Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia, also traded higher. Korea, Taiwan and Japan have been among the global leaders this year, but face mounting scrutiny as investors question whether the AI rally can last. A gauge of Asian chipmakers fell as much as 4.6%. Still, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. provided more signs of sustained AI demand, when it raised its spending and revenue projections for the year. With leading Korean chip names down, investors are rotating out of the country, said Yi Ping Liao, portfolio manager at Franklin Templeton. âBut interestingly it doesnât look like a broad based rotation out of tech as Taiwan tech and China tech remain well supported.â âNow that selling momentum builds in the Korean semis, investors are returning to China where valuations are depressed,â Vey-Sern Ling, managing director at Union Bancaire Privee, said, adding Chinaâs tech performance has been inversely correlated with high-flying Korean memory names recently. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is near flat with muted moves across the G-10 complex. In rates, treasuries fall despite a pullback in oil prices that correlations suggest should be accompanied by gains for bonds. Thatâs not been the case however with US 10-year yields rising 2 bps to 4.57%. UK and German government bonds are nursing similar sized declines. Long-end yields cheaper by around 3bp and the curve slightly steeper, amid similar moves in European bonds. The price action unwinds a portion of the sharp rally over the past two days spurred by soft CPI and PPI prints. Treasury yields are 2bp-3bp cheaper across the curve with 5s30s spread steeper by around 1bp, adding to its sharp widening since Tuesday. 10-year is around 4.57% with bunds and gilts similarly cheaper. IG dollar issuance slate includes a couple of deals. JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley headlined a $23.6 billion slate Wednesday with $9 billion offerings. Issuers paid an average of about two basis points in new issue concessions on deals that were 4.1 times covered. Focal points of US session include June retail sales data and several Fed speakers. In commodities, Brent crude futures fall 0.8% to around $84.30 a barrel even after the US struck Iran for a fifth straight day. European natural gas futures are down 1%. Bitcoin falls over 1% while precious metals are also in the red. US economic data calendar includes July New York Fed services activity, weekly jobless claims, July Philadelphia Fed business outlook index, and June retail sales (8:30am), July NAHB housing market index, May business inventories and June pending home sales (10am). Fed calendar includes Dallas Fedâs Logan (12:30pm), Kansas City Fedâs Schmid (1:25pm) and Vice Chair Jefferson (7pm) Market Snapshot Top Overnight News The US struck Iran for a fifth straight day overnight and hit a sanctioned oil tanker near the countryâs main export terminal. Iran fired at US bases in Kuwait and Jordan. BBG Iran allowed an American citizen to go free after preventing her from leaving the country for a year and a half, a move President Trump called a âgesture of good willâ amid a deepening standoff between the two foes. WSJ The Trump administration said on Wednesday that it would impose a new 25 percent tariff on Brazil next week, arguing that the country had adopted a range of unfair trade practices against the United States. The tariff will apply to thousands of Brazilian products, but will exempt several major categories of exports, including oil and gas, beef, coffee, oranges, and aircraft parts. The tariff will apply to Brazilian ethanol, and take effect next Wednesday. NYT South Koreaâs central bank raised interest rates for the first time in over three years, joining its global peers to tighten policy in the face of inflation fueled by the U.S.-Iran conflict. Bank of Korea Gov. Shin Hyun-song said that the bank would tighten policy further in coming months, citing stronger-than-expected economic growth and inflation. WSJ South Koreaâs top financial regulator unveiled measures to curb risks from single-stock leveraged exchange-traded funds, seeking to stabilize a local stock market that has seen wild swings, as individual investors use debt to chase profits amid artificial-intelligence-related jitters. The Financial Services Commission said Thursday that it would suspend new listings of single-stock leveraged ETFs, ban securities firms and asset managers from advertising or marketing such products. WSJ Baidu plans to pursue a dual primary listing in the US and Hong Kong, a move that will allow it to tap mainland Chinese investors. BBG UK economic data for May was mixed, with modestly better GDP and manufacturing production while industrial production fell slightly short . BBG Smoke blanketed parts of the Northeast, Midwest and Great Lakes as hundreds of wildfires burned across Canada. New Yorkers face unhealthy air again today and are advised to stay indoors, according to state data. BBG The dip in SpaceX's shares below its blockbuster IPO price of $135 a share is an ominous sign âfor Elon Musk's internet and rocket company as it faces more potential volatility in early August, when the number of shares available for trading on the Nasdaq stands to increase significantly from the lockup expiration. Reuters The market has priced a large US growth upgrade and more hawkish policy views versus before the war. Goldman BofA week-to-July 11th total card spending +4.5% (prev. 4.8%); spending growth slowed but remains solid. A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk APAC stocks were ultimately mixed, albeit with a mostly negative bias in the major indices, as risk sentiment was dampened by a sell-off in semiconductor stocks. ASX 200 was subdued with the index pressured by losses in miners after BHP reported lower output. Nikkei 225 slid below 67,000 with chip-related stocks over-represented in the list of worst performers. KOSPI triggered sidecars as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix slumped alongside the semiconductor sell-off, while the BoK also raised its key rate by 25bps to 2.75%, as expected, and signalled further action. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed with the mainland in the red following disappointing loans and financing data, while the Hong Kong benchmark rallied amid strength in hyperscalers following reports that US companies were increasingly adopting open-weight Chinese AI models and that Alibaba's Qwen AI would be integrated into Apple Intelligence in China. Top Asian News South Korea Financial Regulator said they are to revise rules on single-stock leveraged ETFs to temporarily halt new single leveraged products from listing. The minimum required investor deposit is to be raised to KRW 30mln from KRW 10mln. Japanese Finance Minister Katayama reiterated they will take appropriate action on FX anytime as needed, although she won't comment on specific FX levels, and stated they will monitor market developments and economic indicators to achieve fiscal sustainability. European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.3%) begin Thursdayâs trade entirely in the red, with underperformance in the SMI (-0.9%) after earnings from Partners Group and ABB. On the data front, UK GDP M/M printed 0.1% M/M, in line with expectations, while the 3M ticked down to 0.7%, from 0.8%, but beat the 0.5% consensus; no reaction seen in the FTSE 100. Sectors highlight the negative bias, with Media (+0.6%) the only sector printing modest gains after earnings from Publicis (+2.1%), raising its FY revenue guidance. Underperformance is seen in Utilities (-1.1%), followed by Industrial Goods & Services (-1.0%) and Financial Services (-1.1%). US equity futures follow their European peers, trading entirely in the red, despite strong TSMC earnings and an Nvidia announcement. For TSMC, the Co. reported Q2 metrics that beat estimates and raised its Q3 revenue guidance. Additionally, the Co. is to add another USD 100bln of US investment. For Nvidia, the Co. announced that Japan, through Noetra, will buy 27,500 Rubin chips to build AI models for robots. Top European News Italy PM Meloniâs electoral reform has been approved by Italyâs lower house in a vote. FX G10s lack direction against the Buck in light newsflow. GBP, CHF and NOK all lower after recent gains. DXY is marginally firmer, but USD gains are mixed against other G10 peers. Todayâs calendar sees a few Fed speakers, Logan, Schmid and Jefferson, and the data slate features Retail Sales and weekly jobless claims. NOK and CHF are the worst performers against the Greenback, which attempts to retrace lost ground with energy prices weighing on NOK, and USD/CHF garnering support around 0.8050. Not too much was learned from the UK GDP reading for May, which rose but fell short of expectations. On Wednesday, GBP rallied after a number of outlets reported that Mahmood was set for the Chancellor role. Currently, GBP/USD is holding onto gains just above the 1.35 mark. EUR is flat against the USD and slightly firmer against GBP, with bloc-specific newsflow light. For now, EUR trades within a narrow 1.1460-74 range. EZ calendar light with ECB on its quiet period ahead of its policy meeting next week. Fixed Income Global fixed income benchmarks are modestly softer across the board, with a lack of clear drivers, and as US-Iran strikes continue to stoke fears of prolonged inflation. Gilts (-15 ticks) trade at the lower end of its 87.15-87.60 range, giving back some of Wednesdayâs gains. This morning, UK GDP printed 0.1% M/M, in line with expectations, while the three-month gauge ticked down to 0.7% (from 0.8%), but still beat the 0.5% consensus. Politics remain front and centre: reports on Wednesday suggest that incoming PM Andy Burnham is likely to appoint Home Secretary Mahmood as the next Chancellor. Markets have taken this as a positive as she is seen as fiscally conservative, though many still seek clarity on her broader positions. Polymarket gives Mahmood a 63% chance vs Miliband's 9% to become the next Chancellor. The UK had a decent auction, however demand did fall from the prior auction OATs (-22 ticks) follow their European peers lower. Politics remains in focus; recently, RN's Le Pen was found guilty of embezzlement by the Paris court, but given the timing of the first round of the Presidential Election, she is eligible to run for President. Since then, she announced she would appeal the court's decision and has launched her Presidential campaign. Polls show that Le Pen has extended her lead, with support rising to above 35% from 33% before she announced her bid. Todayâs auctions came broadly in line with priors, with demand holding near 3x. USTs (-7 ticks) look ahead for more Fedspeak, with Logan, Schmid and Jefferson all set to speak on the economy and economic outlook today (note: Jefferson is after hours). On the data front, initial jobless claims and retail sales are the highlights. The UK sells GBP 4.25bln 4.875% 2036 Treasury Gilt: b/c 3.13x (prev. 3.46x), average yield 5.040% (prev. 4.858%), tail 0.1bps (prev. 0.1bps). France sells EUR 13.999bln vs exp. EUR 12-14bln 2.40% 2029, 1.50% 2031, 3.25% 2032 and 3.50% 2033 OAT. Spain sells EUR 5.974bln vs exp. EUR 5-6bln 2.35% 2029, 3.55% 2033 and 3.95% 2056 Bono. Commodities The situation between the US and Iran remains volatile. Overnight, the US completed another round of strikes on various parts of Iran, targeting military capabilities. Tehran responded with its own attacks on Kuwait and Jordan. The path to peace currently remains uncertain. President Trump said that strikes would expand next week; a recent report via the WSJ suggested that Trump is leaning toward expanding US military operations in Iran after days of briefings from top aides. If this proves to be the case, then the risk is that Iran responds with a harsher response against its regional peers. Thus far, Iran has generally avoided energy infrastructure across Gulf nations, but a US expansion could see Iran begin to target Gulf energy facilities, posing risks for oil supply. In the immediate term, the Strait remains shut and near-term flows have been slowed; longer-term, severe facility damage could see halts to production for several months/years, analysts say. Despite these risks, crude benchmarks are trading lower this morning; Brent Sepâ26 (-0.5%) trades within a USD 84.30-85.55/bbl range. Price action was lacklustre overnight and into the European morning. However, some modest upticks (c. USD 0.30/bbl) were seen after an Iranian Top Military Commander stated that the Strait of Hormuz is a red line and added that all infrastructure in the region will be "crushed" if the US continues its interference. Spot gold (-0.6%) moved lower throughout the APAC session. The subdued action filtered through into London hours; currently holding at session lows of USD 4,024/oz (vs peak of USD 4,064/oz). Action, which is a bit of a paring back from the gains seen in the past couple of sessions. Elsewhere, base metals hold a modest positive bias. 3M LME Copper (+0.3%) holds within a USD 13,541-13,648/t range. Crude oil flows were suspended at all Iraqi oil loading terminals following a drone crash into an oil tanker at Iraqâs Basra terminal; no damage or fires were reported, security sources said. Trade/Tariffs The US is to set a 25% tariff on some Brazil goods from July 22nd, with coffee and beef exempted. USTR Greer said that Canada offers no concessions and that Mexico is pragmatic in USMCA talks. Central Banks BoK raised its 7-day Repo Rate by 25bps to 2.75%, as expected. BoK said the rate decision was unanimous and growth rate this year is expected to considerably surpass the May forecast of 2.6%. Will assess timing of further increase in inflation pressure, improvement trend in the economy and financial stability. BoE's Breeden said it is important firms are stress testing AI valuations. The Iran war shock is less likely to become embedded and lead to inflationary dynamics that members might need to lean against. NBP's Zarzecki said the base case is for rates to remain unchanged until the turn of 2026/27, with rates likely to rise in 2027. SNB Minutes (Jun): Although inflation risks have increased in recent months and stronger second-round effects are possible, there is no immediate need for action. Geopolitics US President Trump posted that Iran allowed a US citizen who was wrongly detained in December 2024 to leave the country. Trump added that the citizen is now safely outside of Iran and in good condition, while he stated that the US appreciates the gesture of goodwill by Iran. US VP Vance said Israel is more effective than most at influencing the US, and that some people in the Israeli government want war indefinitely. Furthermore, Vance said they are not going to send ground troops for regime change and that the US will not simply engage in endless bombing of Iran. US CENTCOM said forces conducted operations for a second wave of strikes on Wednesday against Iran and that US forces disabled a non-compliant vessel in the Arabian Gulf, while it denied Iranian claims that US forces struck a civilian wheat storage facility in Hoveyzeh on July 14th and described the reports as false. Explosions were heard in Iran's Khorramabad, and US air strikes targeted areas in Tehran. Explosions were also heard in Iran's Qeshm and Bandar Abbas, while US projectiles hit near Sirik. Iran attacked economic interests and US facilities in Kuwait, while at least 10 explosions were heard at the US Navy's Fifth Fleet Headquarters in Bahrain, and Iran also targeted Jordan. Kuwait said its armed forces intercepted four cruise missiles and 21 drones from Iran on Wednesday, while Iranian aggression targeted a number of vital facilities, resulting in material damage, although no injuries were reported. Iran's Top Joint Military Command said the Strait of Hormuz is a red line and added that all infrastructure in the region will be "crushed" if the US continues its interference. Houthis were reportedly laying the groundwork and quietly extending their reach to the Horn of Africa, according to the Telegraph citing sources in Yemen, with Houthi rebels reportedly preparing to shut the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on behalf of Iran. Furthermore, sources said the effort was a deliberate Iranian attempt to control "the other side of the Red Sea" and create a situation similar to its grip on the Strait of Hormuz. Israeli Defence Minister said US operations against Iran was discussed in the phone call with the US Secretary of State Rubio, and said Israel will remain in security zones in Syria, Gaza and Lebanon. Ukraine's security service said it struck two Russian shadow fleet tankers in the Black sea and hit six more tankers and two tug boats in the Sea of Azov and Black sea. US and Iraq to announce USD 60bln in commercial deals as Trump pivots US-Iraq ties towards commerce over military, according to Semafor. US Event Calendar 8:30 am: Jul Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook, est. 12.5, prior 10.3 8:30 am: Jun Retail Sales Advance MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.9% 8:30 am: Jul 11 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 217k, prior 215k 8:30 am: Jun Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, est. -0.1%, prior 0.8% 8:30 am: Jul 4 Continuing Claims, est. 1817.5k, prior 1814k 10:00 am: Jun Pending Home Sales MoM, est. -0.5%, prior 3.8% Central Bank speakers 12:30 pm: Fedâs Logan Speaks on the Economy and Monetary Policy 1:25 pm: Fedâs Schmid Speaks at Kansas City Fed Economic Forum 7:00 pm: Fedâs Jefferson Speaks on Economy and Monetary Policy DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap As hearts were broken in England, markets continued to shrug off the recent escalations in the Middle East and have mostly had a positive last 24 hours. Admittedly, thereâs been some weakness among chip stocks in Asia this morning, but otherwise, markets benefited from a soft US PPI print which continued to drive a dovish repricing. Indeed, the probability of a Fed rate hike in a couple of weeksâ time now stands at just 10% this morning, the lowest itâs been since the Fedâs last meeting that led to the imminent hike speculation in the first place. Moreover, oil prices finally stabilised after their jump earlier this week, with Brent crude (+0.26%) up only marginally yesterday, and theyâve since fallen back -0.22% overnight to $84.76/bbl. Meanwhile, risk appetite also remained resilient, with the S&P 500 (+0.38%) closing just half a percent from its record high last month, and futures for the index are up another +0.13% this morning.  As on Tuesday, that US inflation print really cemented investor confidence in the dovish narrative this week. Notably, headline PPI was down -0.3% in June (vs. unch expected), but we also had a big downward revision to the May reading, which fell half a point to +0.6%. So the recent inflation picture was softer than originally thought, with the year-on-year PPI reading down to +5.5% (vs. +6.2% expected). And significantly for investors, there wasnât any obvious alarm either from the components that feed into PCE inflation (the Fedâs target measure). See our US economistsâ inflation recap here. That backdrop meant investors continued to dial back the chances of a Fed hike, with US Treasury yields coming down across the curve. For instance, the 2yr yield (-5.9bps) was down to 4.14%, whilst the 10yr yield (-4.2bps) fell to 4.55%. We also heard from Fed Chair Warsh once again, who was appearing before the Senate Banking Committee. The new Chair said he ârepeatedlyâ told Trump that he would be independent, but there were no major policy headlines from his session and little to point towards an imminent hike. Separately, Fed Governor Cook maintained a hawkish-leaning tone, saying that the FOMC can take its time to observe more data but that âIf we do not see signs of disinflation soon, I am prepared to actâ. As all that was happening, oil prices fluctuated amidst the competing headlines out of the Middle East, but they ultimately stabilised after their sharp jump earlier in the week. In terms of the latest developments, oil prices initially eased back yesterday but then edged higher as US forces conducted new strikes overnight and the WSJ reported that Trump was leaning towards expanding military operations against Iran. But overall, Brent crude has been broadly flat, with a modest +0.26% increase yesterday to $84.95/bbl, and overnight itâs since fallen back -0.22% to $84.76/bbl.  For US equities there was another decent performance as well yesterday, aided by the dovish repricing. Moreover, the latest earnings results added further support, with BlackRock (+6.63%) as the second-best performer in the S&P 500 yesterday after its results beat expectations. So that helped the S&P 500 (+0.38%) to post a second daily increase, despite a drag from chip stocks, as the Philly semiconductor index fell -2.08%. But other tech stocks fared better, with the NASDAQ up +0.62%. Moreover, the Mag-7 rallied +2.31%, led by Apple (+4.01%) after it received government approval to roll out Apple Intelligence in China.  Those themes have continued overnight, with weakness among chip stocks dragging down some of the major indices in Asia. For instance, itâs been another volatile day for the KOSPI (-6.55%), which is currently on track for a two-month low as it stands, having shed over -25% since its peak less than a month ago. And weâve seen weakness in Japan as well overnight, with the Nikkei down -2.48%, and in mainland China the CSI 300 (-0.91%) and the Shanghai Comp (-0.82%) have also fallen. The one exception to that is the Hang Seng, which is up +1.93% this morning. In other news overnight, the Bank of Korea delivered their first rate hike since 2023, with a 25bp hike that took the policy rate to 2.75%. The move was in line with consensus, and their statement said that âinflation is expected to remain above the target level for a considerable timeâ, and they said that growth this year âis expected to considerably exceed the May forecast of 2.6%.â Meanwhile, they also signalled further hikes ahead, saying that âit is judged that it will be necessary to continue a policy stance consistent with further rate hikesâ. Staying on central banks, we also heard from the Bank of Canada yesterday, who kept rates unchanged as the consensus expected. There was some optimism however, as their statement said that the economy was âshowing signs of improvementâ. But the market reaction was pretty muted, and the decline in 10yr Canadian bond yields (-4.3bps) was almost exactly in line with that for 10yr US Treasuries. Earlier in Europe, there was also a weaker performance yesterday, with yields moving higher as concern grew on the inflation side. The problem was that even as oil prices fell back, natural gas prices continued to tick higher, with European futures hitting a fresh 3-month high yesterday of âŹ54.35/MWh. So that backdrop saw yields on 10yr bunds (+0.7bps), OATs (+1.8bps) and BTPs (+2.6bps) all move higher, although the STOXX 600 (+0.10%) managed to eke out a modest gain, even as the DAX (-0.59%) and FTSE-MIB (-0.85%) saw larger declines. Finally, with Andy Burnham set to become UK Prime Minister next week, the FT reported that the next Chancellor of the Exchequer was likely to be Shabana Mahmood, the current home secretary. This had been a key focus for UK markets in recent days, and the pound strengthened on the headlines, ending the day up +1.12% against the US dollar at $1.3540. Moreover, gilts also extended their outperformance after the news, with the 10y yield (-3.8bps) down to 4.94%, the opposite direction to yields in continental Europe. Looking at the day ahead, US data releases include retail sales and pending home sales for June, the NAHBâs housing market index and the Philadelphia Fedâs business outlook survey for July, and the weekly initial jobless claims. Meanwhile in the UK, weâll get the monthly GDP print for May. Otherwise, central bank speakers include the Fedâs Logan and Schmid. Finally, todayâs earnings releases include Netflix, Morgan Stanley and Johnson & Johnson. Tyler Durden Thu, 07/16/2026 - 08:25
American strikes reach Tehran Area as Iran threatens wider attacks
The United States intensified its strikes on Iran early Thursday, hitting targets further north as American forces also fired into a ship the U.S. accused of trying to break its naval blockade on the Islamic Republic. Iran retaliated with missile and drone fire targeting U.S. allies in the region before dawn and warned its attacks may escalate. Days of back-and-forth strikes by the U.S. and Iran across the Middle East â and renewed threats to the Strait of Hormuz â have shredded the interim deal to end the Iran war and could tip the region back into all-out war. Already, Iranian officials say U.S. strikes have killed more than 35 people and wounded over 300 others. RELATED STORY | Why has the US restarted strikes against Iran now? Strikes also reached into areas around Iranâs capital, Tehran, for the first time in this latest round of violence, showing a widening set of targets for the Americans. When the U.S. and Israel launched the war on Iran on Feb. 28, Tehran effectively closed the strait to shipping traffic, a move that sent the price of oil, fertilizer and many other goods soaring far beyond the region and gave Iran major leverage in negotiations. Col. Ebrahim Zolfaghari, a spokesperson for the Iranian militaryâs Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, threatened that Iran could launch widespread attacks on regional infrastructure if the U.S. acts on President Donald Trump's repeated warnings that America could hit Iranian bridges and power plants. âAll the infrastructure in the region will be crushed under the steel blows of the powerful armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iranâ should Trumpâs threat be carried out, Zolfaghari said. âUnder no circumstances and in no way will we allow America, as a foreign and extra-regional country, to interfere in the Strait of Hormuz,â he added. âThis is Iranâs invincible red line.â Both the US and Iran launch attacks as blockade is reimposed The U.S. strikes early Thursday hit around Tehran, state media reported. It also reported that American attacks targeted Semnan province, home to Iranâs ballistic missile production and space program. Iranian media also reported strikes Thursday morning around the provinces of Hamedan, Hormozgan, Khuzestan, Lorestan, Markazi, and Sistan and Baluchistan. On Wednesday, the U.S. resumed striking Iran during daylight, further showing the increasing tempo of the attacks. An attack on Greater Tunb Island, a strategic point in the Strait of Hormuz, targeted Iranian defense and missile sites, Central Command said. Meanwhile, the U.S. military said it opened fire on the Curacao-flagged oil tanker Belma sailing toward Kharg Island, Iranâs main oil export terminal in the Persian Gulf. After the ship âignored multiple warnings,â a U.S. aircraft disabled the merchant vessel by firing a missile into the shipâs smokestack. Another American strike Wednesday targeted a barracks for Iranâs 388th Mechanized Infantry Brigade, which operates tanks and armored vehicles, in Sistan and Baluchestan province, Iranian state television reported. The report said Americans fired at least 13 missiles in the attack and the seven dead included conscripts and career soldiers. A number of troops were wounded. Iran retaliated Thursday morning with missile and drone attacks on Bahrain, Jordan and Kuwait, authorities in those countries home to U.S. forces said. There was no immediate acknowledgment of damage or casualties from the attacks. Kuwait reported a new round of incoming fire on Thursday afternoon. Meanwhile, Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi condemned an overnight drone attack on the city of Irbil in Iraqâs semiautonomous northern Kurdish region. The drone, which authorities said had been intercepted, came during his trip to the U.S. in which he said Iraq would work to disarm non-state armed groups, including those backed by Iran. Trump says a peace deal is still possible The latest round of fighting is focused on the Strait of Hormuz, as Iran attacks ships using a U.S.-controlled route through the vital waterway. The U.S. has threatened to reopen the strait by force, but experts say that would require a much bigger armada if not tens of thousands of ground troops. The price for Brent crude oil, the international standard, traded above $85 a barrel on Thursday, more than 15% higher than the price before the war, but still well below the nearly $120 reached at the height of the conflict. RELATED STORY | US strikes targets in Iran for third straight day as blockade resumes Rising prices pose a particular challenge to Trump and his Republican Party, which hopes to retain control of Congress in elections in November. But Washington has struggled to successfully reopen the waterway, leading to Trump reimposing the naval blockade Wednesday. Trump again insisted Iran was ready to strike a peace deal, but he did not elaborate. âThey donât like what weâre doing, and they do want to settle. Weâll find out whether or not we settle with them, or we just finish it off,â he said Wednesday at the U.S. Army War College in Pennsylvania. Mediators have sought to calm the tensions, but so far have been unsuccessful. Pakistanâs Foreign Ministry on Thursday said it was still trying to bring the U.S. and Tehran to the table, while acknowledging that mediation was becoming increasingly difficult. âWhenever the parties exhaust the logic of escalation, the formula for peace is there,â ministry spokesperson Tahir Andrabi told a news conference. Trump separately said on social media that Tehran made a goodwill gesture by releasing an American citizen wrongly detained in Iran since 2024. He didnât release further details. Human rights lawyer Jared Genser released a statement identifying the detainee as his client Dena Karari, a U.S.-Iranian citizen who runs a nonprofit and was charged with espionage. Iran did not immediately acknowledge the release and her case was not publicly known, as is sometimes the case with detentions in the Islamic Republic.
US intensifies attacks on Iran as Tehran hits back at Gulf states
The US has intensified its attacks on Iran, hitting targets near Tehran and striking a ship it accused of trying to break its blockade, while Iran retaliated by firing missiles and drones at US allies in the region Six consecutive days of back-and-forth attacks threaten to pull the region back into a total war and cast serious doubt about an interim deal reached last month meant to achieve a permanent peace. The attacks have been accompanied by escalating rhetoric from both sides, as the US enforced its naval blockade and Iran said it had shut the strait of Hormuz, which before the conflict handled around a fifth of global oil and gas exports. The US launched its latest wave of strikes on Iran early on Thursday, hitting areas around Tehran for the first time in the current round of fighting, as well as striking other provinces, Iranian state media reported. The US also said it fired on a tanker sailing towards Kharg island, Iranâs biggest oil export terminal. US Central Command said it fired a Hellfire missile at the ship after it âignored multiple warnings.â US attacks had killed more than 35 people and wounded more than 300 others in recent days, Iranian authorities said. Tehran accused the US of carrying out a âbarbaric attackâ after a cancer hospital in south-west Iran was evacuated because of strikes nearby. âThis barbaric attack, reminiscent of Israelâs atrocities against healthcare facilities, caused severe suffering and anxiety upon the hospitalised children,â Iranâs foreign ministry spokesperson said on X. Esmaeil Baghaei added that â211 patients undergoing chemotherapyâ were evacuated. Iran responded on Thursday with missiles and drones targeting Bahrain, Jordan and Kuwait, which host US bases. Iraqâs prime minister, Ali al-Zaidi, also said there was an overnight drone attack on the city of Erbil in Iraqi Kurdistan. The attack, which was intercepted, came as al-Zaidi pledged to disarm non-state armed groups during a trip to the US. Iraqi authorities also suspended crude oil loading at all Iraqi terminals on Thursday after a drone crashed into an oil tanker in Basra without causing damage, Reuters reported. Iran warned that it could expand its attacks in the region in response to comments from Donald Trump, the US president, that he could attack power plants, bridges and a nuclear facility. âAll the infrastructure in the region will be crushed under the steel blows of the powerful armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran,â said Col Ebrahim Zolfaghari, an Iranian military spokesperson. âUnder no circumstances and in no way will we allow America, as a foreign and extra-regional country, to interfere in the strait. This is Iranâs inviolable red line.â Zolfaghari added that the only way to reopen the strait was for the US to follow the 14-point Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed last month, as well to abide by âIranian regulationsâ for transiting ships. Much of the latest fighting has focused on the strait, as Iran and the US fight for the future of the critical waterway. The MoU signed last month said the strait should remain open for the 60-day period of the interim deal. However, the two sides interpret the MoU differently, with both sides insisting that ships transit the strait via their own separately designated lanes. The strait was all but closed by Iran after the start of the war, sending global energy prices and inflation soaring. Trump is keen to have the strait reopened because higher energy prices could harm Republican candidates in autumnâs midterm elections. Fewer vessels went through the strait on Wednesday after the US blockade was reimposed and fighting continued, shipping data showed. Nine ships, mostly on the Iranian-provided route, not the US one, navigated the strait as opposed to 13 on Tuesday. India, one of the largest contributors of sailors to merchant vessels worldwide, told shipowners and recruitment companies not to send Indian sailors on ships heading for the strait. âThere should be no deployment of Indian seafarers on vessels undertaking voyages involving passage through the strait of Hormuz until further orders,â Indiaâs directorate general of maritime administration said in a statement on Wednesday. The price of oil has increased to about $85 a barrel â the highest price in a month, but still below the peak of $120 during the war. Analysts said that continued disruptions to shipping in the strait could see oil prices increase further, reaching as high as $100 a barrel. The US has threatened that it could open the strait by force, but experts have said that such an operation would need thousands of ground troops. Trump has continued to insist that Iran was ready to make a peace deal, though Iranian officials have said they will not bow to military pressure. âThey donât like what weâre doing, and they do want to settle. Weâll find out whether or not we settle with them, or we just finish it off,â Trump said on Wednesday during a speech at the US armyâs war college. Trumpâs statements conflicted with those of Iranian officials, with Iranâs top negotiator and speaker of parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, saying in a statement that âwe are in an essential and existential war with Americaâ.
People are tired of Trump claiming Iran 'wants to make a deal' yet again
The more things change, the more they stay the same⌠Donald Trump has sparked more criticism on social media after yet again claiming that Iran is ready to make a deal to end the war. Trump launched the US into a war with Iran without a plan or clear objective for when it would end. It is a war which has cost thousands of lives and seen the price of fuel and other goods surge thanks to blockades of the vital Strait of Hormuz shipping channel. With talks continually in the works, some previously accused Trump of coming up with promises that are not accurate â a recent example came when Trump suggested the unfrozen, previously sanctioned oil money Iran will be getting back would be used to purchase food âexclusively through the United States from our farmersâ. This week, Trump made the claim that he had spoken to Iranian officials an hour before sitting down for an interview with Fox News. "I have spoken to them... [my representatives spoke to Iran] an hour ago. They want to make a deal, but every time they make a deal they break it. They don't want to die, people don't want to die," he said. "We're being very careful with the population... but I said 'you're going to have to be very careful or you're not going to have anything left'." Trump added: "They should [make a deal]. I don't know if they will or not." One critic wrote on social media: "bro literally says the same thing every day for 5 months i think i will actually go mentally insane if i have to read this one more time." The MediaTouch account wrote: "He always says this when he is backed into a corner. When he talks like this, all Iran sees is an individual desperate to save face." Another said: "Heâs been saying this for months." Itâs not the first time Trump has made comments that sparked criticism about Iran this week, after he compared it to the Vietnam war. The continuing conflict led to CNN reporter Kaitlan Collins asking the 80-year-old in the Oval Office on Monday whether the situation in Iran is a ânew normalâ for Americans. Trump replied: âWell, you know, we were in Vietnam for 19 years, weâre here for four months. So I think weâve done a lot.â Why not read⌠- Trump says he's been president 'three times' â people are tired of it - Trump compares Iran to war he didnât serve in: 'Certainly a choice' Sign up to our free indy100 weekly newsletter Have your say in our news democracy. Click the upvote icon at the top of the page to help raise this article through the indy100 rankings.
First Thing: US attacks tanker in continuing Iran conflict as Tehran releases US citizen
Good morning. The US has fired on an oil tanker attempting to reach Kharg Island in the strait of Hormuz as part of its blockade on Iranian ports. The US targeted coastal defences and missile sites, as well as targets farther north, with state media reporting strikes for the first time on the countryâs capital, Tehran. The US also said it had disabled the unladen oil tanker, firing Hellfire missiles into the shipâs smokestack after it ignored multiple warnings. Iran responded with attacks targeting Bahrain and Kuwait. The escalating attacks come days after the ceasefire between the two sides appeared to have entirely collapsed with fears of a return to full-scale war. - What other developments have happened in the region? Donald Trump said Iran had released a US citizen detained since 2024, identified as Dena Karari, a dual US-Iranian citizen. Meanwhile, the Israeli defence minister, Israel Katz, told the US defence secretary, Pete Hegseth, that Israel was determined to keep its forces in âsecurity zonesâ in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza. Venezuelan man becomes 22nd person to die in ICE custody this year Another person has died in federal immigration custody this week in Georgia, officials announced on Wednesday. His is the 22nd death in Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) custody this year. JesĂşs Manuel Arenas-Silva, a 45-year-old Venezuelan man, died on Monday morning while being transferred between detention facilities in Georgia. He was found âunresponsiveâ in a transport bus. ICE said the suspected cause of death was cardiac arrest. - What did the manâs family say? Arenas-Silvaâs sister and immigrantsâ rights groups in Georgia said in a press statement that ICE did not provide him with necessary medications during his time in detention for an unnamed condition, despite his familyâs pleas that he take the medications during his arrest last week. - How is the crisis becoming more international? Mexico has formally requested that US state attorneys general criminally investigate cases of immigrants who have died in ICE custody or during raids, the Mexican government has said. Since the beginning of Donald Trumpâs second term, 17 Mexican immigrants have died during immigration enforcement, 14 in ICE custody and three in agency operations. JD Vance admits errors over Epstein files release JD Vance has agreed with criticism that the Trump administration botched the handling of the release of the Jeffrey Epstein files, telling the podcast host Joe Rogan that âwe absolutely screwed up the commsâ. The files have been one of the most significant political liabilities to Donald Trump since his second term began. In a lengthy interview released on Wednesday, the US vice-president told Rogan that the administration should have released all the documents from the beginning, saying: âWe absolutely screwed up the comms of the Epstein files. Like, we just did. But do I think the reason we screwed up the comms is because we were trying to hide something? No.â - Why was the way the files were released criticised? After months of persistent controversy, lawmakers passed a measure that compelled the government to release a large trove of documents related to federal investigations of Epstein. In December, the justice department began releasing heavily redacted files, including photos, call logs, grand jury testimony and interview transcripts. But the redactions and the DoJâs failure to meet a deadline to release the full files drew criticism from lawmakers and the public. In other news ⌠- Lionel Messi and Argentina will face Spain in the Fifa World Cup final on Sunday after a dramatic comeback victory over England, in which the South American players celebrated with a banner claiming the Falkland Islands. - The House defeated a measure to slash military aid to Israel, but more than 100 Democrats voted for it in a significant rebuke of the longtime US ally. - House Republicans have resurrected the Save America Act by adding it to the spending bill in their latest attempt to ban mail-in ballots and impose voter identification requirements. - Volodymyr Zelenskyy has dismissed Ukraineâs defence minister, despite pleas from foreign partners and civil society for him to keep his job. - A new $1 coin featuring Donald Trump is in production, the Treasury has said, marking the first time a living US president will appear on currency. Stat of the day: More than 500 feared dead after reports of two shipwrecks off Myanmar, UN says The UN has said more than 500 people are feared dead after reports of two large shipwrecks off Myanmar since late June. Preliminary information indicated that the two vessels in question departed from war-torn Myanmarâs Rakhine state in late June, with mainly members of the countryâs mostly Muslim Rohingya minority onboard. The Filter Recommends: These 20 grilling tools will actually upgrade your outdoor cooking game If youâre looking to up your grilling skills this summer, investing in a handful of well-made essentials is all you need â Sal Vaglica has you covered. Donât miss this: âThe minute I had success, I stopped taking drugsâ: John Waters on 60 years of screen carnage A simply delightful interview with the âPope of trashâ who discusses dead dogs, dirty rats, âthat lunatic RFKâ and why there are no novelty dances any more. ⌠or this: What is Ukraineâs 40-day campaign against Russia and has it worked? Our senior international correspondent Peter Beaumont explains how taking war to the heart of Russian territory has seized the initiative for Ukraine and helped reset Volodymyr Zelenskyyâs turbulent relationship with Donald Trump. Climate check: How global heating supercharged floods in West Africa, displacing thousands Dozens of people drowned, hundreds had to be rescued, and thousands were displaced when floods struck the coasts of West Africa last month. Now, scientists have concluded that the rains that caused the floods were supercharged by climate breakdown, Damien Gayle writes. Global heating, they say, turned what should have been a routine weather event into a climate catastrophe. Last Thing: Lucky escape for Australian woman after bite from deadly snake caught in bike wheel Eastern brown snakes are highly venomous and have been called the worldâs second most venomous snake, and a woman in her 60s is recovering after being bitten by one that became entangled in her bike chain in Australia. Sign up First Thing is delivered to thousands of inboxes every weekday. If youâre not already signed up, subscribe now. Get in touch If you have any questions or comments about any of our newsletters please email [email protected]
âSafe passageâ: The fatal ambiguity at the heart of the Hormuz MoU
âSafe passageâ: The fatal ambiguity at the heart of the Hormuz MoU Its promise of safe passage settled neither who governs the strait nor on what terms, making renewed escalation the memorandumâs logical outcome. Barely three weeks into a memorandum of understanding (MoU) meant to end a war, the United States is once again blockading Iranian ports, the two states are trading strikes on bases and military assets across the Gulf, and Mr Trump has floated the idea of charging shipping a 20 percent levy, or âprotection moneyâ in less polite language, for the security of the Strait of Hormuz. I would argue, however, that this is not so much the collapse of the June deal, as many are saying, as its logical conclusion. The clause on which global oil traffic depends was written to be signed, not to be operated, and the water is now exposing the difference. Article 5 of the MoU promises âsafe passage of commercial vesselsâ through the strait. It is an elegant phrase. It is also, as a matter of maritime law, almost empty, and that emptiness is less an accident of drafting than the price of agreement. Iran and Washington could sign because the words commit each side to very little and permit each to believe very different things. That is precisely why the arrangement is unravelling faster than even the pessimists expected. Consider what âsafe passageâ leaves unanswered. It does not say who administers it. Article 5 tasks Iran with making âarrangements using its best effortsâ, then sends Tehran off to hold a âdialogueâ with Oman and âdiscussionsâ with the other Gulf states to define âthe future administration and maritime servicesâ of the strait. The US, the worldâs pre-eminent naval power and the historical guarantor of navigational freedom, is not a party to those talks. Nor is the arrangement conditioned on the parties reaching any agreement. Iran is therefore free to argue that, once it has talked, it may unilaterally announce a new regime: Prior notification, designated Iranian corridors and charges dressed up as fees for âsecurity, safety and environmental servicesâ. Reports since the signing put the revenue Tehran imagines at tens of billions of dollars a year. An arrangement meant to reopen the strait has instead handed one coastal state a colourable claim to metre it. The legal problem beneath the drafting is older than the MoU. The Strait of Hormuz is an international strait, and under the transit-passage regime, codified in the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea â and, in the prevailing view, reflecting customary law binding on all states â ships and aircraft of every nation enjoy continuous and expeditious passage that the bordering states may not suspend, even for security reasons. Iran, which never ratified the convention, insists that the applicable regime is instead the narrower âinnocent passageâ regime and that, as a persistent objector, it is not bound by the broader rule. On that reading, it may bar overflight, force submarines to surface and channel traffic as it likes. The MoU does not resolve this decades-old dispute. It gestures at âapplicable international law and the sovereign rights of coastal statesâ. It is thus no more than a formula that each capital reads as vindication of its own position. Constructive ambiguity has become an agreement to keep disagreeing about the one point on which everything depends. Even Iranâs narrower theory does not get it where it wants to go. Charges for mere passage are prohibited, whether the regime is one of transit or innocent passage. A coastal state may charge only for specific services actually rendered to a particular vessel, such as pilotage or towage. This is the rule that runs from the International Law Commissionâs 1956 work through the 1958 Territorial Sea Convention, which Iran signed, to the modern convention. Ships have never needed special services to cross Hormuzâs wide, deep channel. Rebranding a toll as a âmaritime-services feeâ cannot change its legal character. Nor is the strait Iranâs to administer alone. Its southern side lies in Omani waters, and Oman is fully bound to permit transit passage there. Indeed, in the last few days, Oman has asserted in no uncertain terms that it is abiding by international law. Any Iranian interference on that side would be a plain breach of Omanâs sovereignty. Moreover, no two states, or even all the littoral states together, can bargain away the passage rights of third states that never consented, a principle as old as the law of treaties itself. The MoU cannot lawfully deliver what its most expansive readers hope it will deliver. What the US may lawfully do in response is correspondingly constrained. Freedom of navigation permits warships to transit and to protect commercial shipping. The MoU cannot be used to license the reciprocal temptation now voiced in Washington: A proposed 20 percent US âtollâ to recoup the cost of keeping the strait open. This is where the legal fragility meets the military reality, and explains why the framework was doomed to strain. Safe passage as a legal concept presupposes a baseline of order. There should be an accepted authority, agreed rules of the road and a shared expectation that ships will not be shot at. The strait today offers none of that. Within the very 60-day âno chargeâ window the MoU created, Iranian forces struck vessels, including one in Omani waters; US Central Command answered with strikes on dozens of coastal radar, missile and fast-boat targets; Iran declared that it alone manages the strait and briefly proclaimed it closed; and both sides traded blows around Gulf bases. A deterrence contest is now the true governing regime of Hormuz, and deterrence is the opposite of law. It substitutes credible threat for settled rule and treats every transit as a test of resolve rather than an exercise of legal right. No two-word phrase can carry that political burden. The MoU was made to stop a war, but now the ceasefire clause is being asked to serve as a permanent constitution for one of the worldâs most important chokepoints. It is being asked to allocate power, price access and determine rights of use. Its provisions are being imposed on third parties that never signed the MoU. It cannot, should not and must not. The views expressed in this article are the authorâs own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeeraâs editorial policy.
US hits tanker with hellfire missiles
- See more Daily Mail on Google - save us as a Preferred Source The US has launched Hellfire missiles at an oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. US Central Command (Centcom) said it had disabled the Belma, a Curacao-flagged merchant vessel, that had been attempting to sail towards Kharg Island by firing a precision missile on Wednesday night. The US agency said that the tanker had ignored multiple warnings before its military was forced to intervene by launching missiles into the ship's smokestack. Wednesday saw the US launch a fifth night of attacks on the Strait of Hormuz as it reimposed a naval blockade of Iran's ports. Washington insists the blockade is aimed at reopening the waterway, which Iran closed last Saturday after a fragile truce collapsed. It comes amid claims that President Donald Trump is considering expanding military operations in Iran. According to The Wall Street Journal, Trump hosted a Situation Room meeting on Tuesday evening, in which he discussed using US troops to seize Kharg Island, Iranâs main oil export terminal, and other territory along the strait. The potential bombing of a tunnel complex at Pickaxe Mountain was also discussed at the meeting, which included senior officials such as Vice President JD Vance and Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth. The US has launched Hellfire missiles at an oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz US Central Command (Centcom) said it had disabled the merchant vessel, that had been attempting to sail towards Kharg Island Fotage shows the moment the vessel was struck After the first strikes on Wednesday night, Tehran's top negotiator Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf issued a statement saying: 'We are in an essential and existential war with America'. Iranian army spokesman Brigadier General Mohammad Akraminia said on Thursday that the Strait of Hormuz, which carried about a fifth of global oil and gas shipments before the war, was a 'red line' for Iran over which it maintains firm control. 'The Americans thought that by attacking some of our bases on the southern coasts of the country, they could take control of this strategic strait,' Akraminia said. 'However, the Islamic Republic of Iran has the ability to exert control over the Strait of Hormuz from every single point of its territory, and this matter is never dependent on coasts and islands.' Three US officials told Reuters that US strikes aimed at forcing open the strait are also targeting Iranian military capabilities that the US would want to destroy before executing more complex operations. Iran's army earlier said in reference to the strait: 'We will undoubtedly resist until the end and will neutralise American interventions in the region'. Iran's military spokesperson has said that the only way to reopen the Strait of Hormuz was for the US to comply with the 14-point memorandum of understanding that the two sides signed in June, and the implementation of 'Iranian regulations' regarding ship traffic in the strait. Trump on Tuesday threatened to hit Iranian power plants and bridges next week unless Tehran resumes negotiations. A vessel at the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from Musandam,Oman, July 15, 2026 This screen grab made on July 15, 2026, from a handout video released by US Central Command on July 13, 2026, shows what the US military says is a strike in Iran This screen grab taken on July 15, 2026, from video footage released by Iran's Revolutionary Guards (IRGC)'s Sepah News website on July 14, 2026, allegedly shows a missile being launched from an undisclosed location towards US targets in Bahrain and Kuwait Akraminia said that if Trump carried out the threat, Iran's armed forces would strike 'all remaining infrastructure' across the region, and the response would be more severe, wider in scope and more destructive than previous attacks. Iran said on Thursday it had targeted US bases in Kuwait and Jordan, warning its neighbours that allowing the US to launch attacks against it would not go unanswered. 'Our neighbours should know that providing a base to the Americans and allowing them to fire on Iranian soil is unacceptable and will not go unanswered,' Iran's army said in a statement. By early Thursday in the Middle East, sirens sounded in Bahrain, and Kuwait said it was responding to 'hostile drone threats'. Iran's army said it targeted the Al Azraq Air Base in Jordan with ballistic missiles, while Iran's Revolutionary Guards said they had destroyed the satellite communications centre and early warning radar at the Ali Al Salem Air Base, as well as a U.S. military pier in the Al Shuaiba area of Kuwait. The Bahraini Defence Ministry said the country's air defence systems had intercepted and destroyed some Iranian aerial attacks targeting the kingdom on Thursday. The latest escalation and Iran's threats to shut off more regional energy exports and possibly strike regional infrastructure raise the spectre of a return to full-scale war in the region. Analysts say Iran has signalled it may use its Houthi allies in Yemen to shut the Bab el-Mandeb gateway to the Red Sea, opening a new front against Washington and putting a second of the world's most vital energy arteries at risk. The war has killed thousands of people and displaced millions, mainly in Iran and Lebanon, where conflict restarted between Israel and the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah.
Fewer vessels travel through Hormuz after US resumes blockade
Fewer vessels travel through Hormuz after US resumes blockade Kpler data shows nine vessels crossing the strait on Jul 15, down from 13 the previous day - Hostilities have intensified since Iran said late on Jul 11 that it had closed the Strait of Hormuz. PHOTO: REUTERS [SINGAPORE] Fewer vessels travelled through the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday (Jul 15), the first day after the US reimposed its naval blockade on Iranian ports with both countries escalating strikes across the Gulf, shipping data showed. Nine vessels crossed the strait on Wednesday, mostly on the Iranian route, down from 13 the previous day, Kpler data showed. There were no Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) or liquefied natural gas tankers visibly passing through the strait on Wednesday. US Central Command said on Wednesday that it had disabled an unladen oil tanker that was attempting to sail towards Iranâs Kharg Island after it ignored multiple warnings, firing Hellfire missiles into the shipâs smokestack. The Curacao-flagged VLCC Belma was no longer transiting to Iran, it added. Since resuming a naval blockade against Iran on Tuesday, the US has redirected two ships and disabled another, the military said. Hostilities have intensified since Iran said late on Jul 11 that it had closed the Strait of Hormuz. Military operations are keeping ships from travelling through the waterway, which carried about a fifth of global oil and gas shipments before the war. On Wednesday, five empty vessels entered the Gulf, including three small oil tankers and two dry bulk carriers for grains, the data showed. The four vessels that exited the strait on Wednesday carried liquefied petroleum gas, coal, fuel oil and fertiliser. On Tuesday, a Suezmax tanker carrying one million barrels of Saudi crude exited the strait with its transponder switched off, Kpler data showed. REUTERS Decoding Asia newsletter: your guide to navigating Asia in a new global order. Sign up here to get Decoding Asia newsletter. Delivered to your inbox. Free. Share with us your feedback on BT's products and services
U.S. military attacks tanker sailing under Curaçao flag
U.S. military attacks tanker sailing under Curaçao flag The United States military has fired missiles at a tanker sailing under the Curaçao flag. On X, the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) said that the empty tanker was en route to a port in Iran. The U.S. has banned all shipping to and from Iranian ports. CENTCOM said that the Curaçao ship violated the American blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. âThe commercial vessel ignored multiple warnings as it attempted to violate the U.S. blockade. A U.S. aircraft disabled the vessel after firing hellfire missiles into the shipâs smokestack. The ship is no longer transiting to Iran,â CENTCOM wrote. The Strait of Hormuz is a crucial area in the war between the U.S. and Iran. The Strait is a very important shipping route for oil, and Iran is putting pressure on the U.S. by blocking it. U.S. president Donald Trump, in turn, is blocking shipping to and from Iran. According to RTL Nieuws, Trump says that the Strait of Hormuz is open to shipping under American protection, but Iran says that no ships are being let through. Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has been severely restricted since the U.S. and Israel launched their first attacks on Iran on February 28. Oil prices, and as a result also fuel prices, have been climbing ever since.
US expands strikes into northern Iran and disables ship trying to run blockade
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates: The United States intensified its strikes targeting Iran early Thursday, hitting targets further north as American forces also fired into a ship it accused of trying to break its naval blockade on the Islamic Republic. Iran retaliated with missile and drone fire targeting Bahrain, Jordan and Kuwait before dawn and warned its attacks may escalate. Days of back-and-forth strikes by the U.S. and Iran across the Middle East - and renewed threats to the Strait of Hormuz - have shredded the interim deal to end the Iran war and could tip the region back into all-out war. Already, Iranian officials say U.S. strikes have killed more than 35 people and wounded over 300 others. Strikes also reached into areas around Iran's capital, Tehran, for the first time in this latest round of violence, showing a widening set of targets for the Americans. When the U.S. and Israel launched the war on Iran on Feb. 28, Tehran effectively closed the strait to shipping traffic, a move that sent the price of oil, fertilizer and many other goods soaring far beyond the region and gave Iran major leverage in negotiations. Also Read: Trump says Iran has freed a detained US citizen Col. Ebrahim Zolfaghari, a spokesperson for the Iranian military's Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, escalated Iran's threats by referencing U.S. President Donald Trump's repeated warning America could hit Iranian bridges and power plants. "All the infrastructure in the region will be crushed under the steel blows of the powerful armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran" should Trump's threat be carried out, Zolfaghari said. "Under no circumstances and in no way will we allow America, as a foreign and extra-regional country, to interfere in the Strait of Hormuz," he added. "This is Iran's invincible red line." US and Iran trade threats as attacks intensify Those rising prices pose a particular challenge to Trump and his Republican Party, which hopes to retain control of Congress in elections in November. But Washington has struggled to successfully reopen the waterway, leading to Trump reimposing the naval blockade Wednesday. Mediators have sought to calm the tensions, but so far have been unsuccessful. Trump again insisted Iran was ready to strike a peace deal, but he did not elaborate. "They don't like what we're doing, and they do want to settle. We'll find out whether or not we settle with them, or we just finish it off," he said Wednesday at the U.S. Army War College in Pennsylvania. Trump separately said on social media that Tehran made a goodwill gesture by releasing an American citizen wrongly detained in Iran since 2024. He didn't release further details. Human rights lawyer Jared Genser released a statement identifying the detainee as his client Dena Karari, a U.S.-Iranian citizen who runs a nonprofit and was charged with espionage. Iran did not immediately acknowledge the release and her case was not publicly known, as is sometimes the case with detentions in the Islamic Republic. Both the US and Iran launch attacks as blockade is reimposed The U.S. strikes early Thursday hit around Tehran, state media reported. It also reported that American attacks targeted Semnan province, home to Iran's ballistic missile production and space program. Iranian media also reported strikes Thursday morning around the provinces of Hamedan, Hormozgan, Khuzestan, Lorestan, Markazi, and Sistan and Baluchistan. On Wednesday, the U.S. resumed striking Iran during daylight, further showing the increasing tempo of the attacks. An attack on Greater Tunb Island, a strategic point in the Strait of Hormuz, targeted Iranian defense and missile sites, Central Command said. Also Read: Certain elements in Israeli govt want the war to continue indefinitely: US VP JD Vance Meanwhile, the U.S. military said it opened fire on the Curacao-flagged oil tanker Belma sailing toward Kharg Island, Iran's main oil export terminal in the Persian Gulf. After the ship "ignored multiple warnings," a U.S. aircraft disabled the merchant vessel by firing a missile into the ship's smokestack. Another American strike Wednesday targeted a barracks for Iran's 388th Mechanized Infantry Brigade, which operates tanks and armored vehicles, in Sistan and Baluchestan province, Iranian state television reported. The report said Americans fired at least 13 missiles in the attack and the seven dead included conscripts and career soldiers. A number of troops were wounded. Iran retaliated Thursday with missile and drone attacks on Bahrain, Jordan and Kuwait, authorities in those countries home to U.S. forces said. There was no immediate acknowledgment of damage or casualties from the attacks. Meanwhile, Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi condemned an overnight drone attack on the city of Irbil in Iraq's semiautonomous northern Kurdish region. The drone, which authorities said had been intercepted, came during his trip to the U.S. in which he said Iraq would work to disarm non-state armed groups, including those backed by Iran. The Strait of Hormuz remains at the heart of the fighting The latest round of fighting is focused on the Strait of Hormuz. How to reopen the strait has bedeviled the U.S. since Iran choked it off in the early days of the war. During the interim deal, some ships began moving through the passage using a route near Oman overseen by the U.S. military that is outside Tehran's control. In recent days, Iran attacked ships using that route and back-and-forth attacks ensued. The U.S. has threatened to reopen the strait by force, but experts say that would require a much bigger armada if not tens of thousands of ground troops. Imposing the blockade is another way to put pressure on Iran. But in the meantime, oil prices are rising. The price for Brent crude oil, the international standard, traded above $85 a barrel on Thursday, more than 15% higher than the price before the war, but still well below the nearly $120 reached at the height of the conflict. (You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel) Days of back-and-forth strikes by the U.S. and Iran across the Middle East - and renewed threats to the Strait of Hormuz - have shredded the interim deal to end the Iran war and could tip the region back into all-out war. Already, Iranian officials say U.S. strikes have killed more than 35 people and wounded over 300 others. Strikes also reached into areas around Iran's capital, Tehran, for the first time in this latest round of violence, showing a widening set of targets for the Americans. When the U.S. and Israel launched the war on Iran on Feb. 28, Tehran effectively closed the strait to shipping traffic, a move that sent the price of oil, fertilizer and many other goods soaring far beyond the region and gave Iran major leverage in negotiations. Also Read: Trump says Iran has freed a detained US citizen Col. Ebrahim Zolfaghari, a spokesperson for the Iranian military's Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, escalated Iran's threats by referencing U.S. President Donald Trump's repeated warning America could hit Iranian bridges and power plants. "All the infrastructure in the region will be crushed under the steel blows of the powerful armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran" should Trump's threat be carried out, Zolfaghari said. "Under no circumstances and in no way will we allow America, as a foreign and extra-regional country, to interfere in the Strait of Hormuz," he added. "This is Iran's invincible red line." US and Iran trade threats as attacks intensify Those rising prices pose a particular challenge to Trump and his Republican Party, which hopes to retain control of Congress in elections in November. But Washington has struggled to successfully reopen the waterway, leading to Trump reimposing the naval blockade Wednesday. Mediators have sought to calm the tensions, but so far have been unsuccessful. Trump again insisted Iran was ready to strike a peace deal, but he did not elaborate. "They don't like what we're doing, and they do want to settle. We'll find out whether or not we settle with them, or we just finish it off," he said Wednesday at the U.S. Army War College in Pennsylvania. Trump separately said on social media that Tehran made a goodwill gesture by releasing an American citizen wrongly detained in Iran since 2024. He didn't release further details. Human rights lawyer Jared Genser released a statement identifying the detainee as his client Dena Karari, a U.S.-Iranian citizen who runs a nonprofit and was charged with espionage. Iran did not immediately acknowledge the release and her case was not publicly known, as is sometimes the case with detentions in the Islamic Republic. Both the US and Iran launch attacks as blockade is reimposed The U.S. strikes early Thursday hit around Tehran, state media reported. It also reported that American attacks targeted Semnan province, home to Iran's ballistic missile production and space program. Iranian media also reported strikes Thursday morning around the provinces of Hamedan, Hormozgan, Khuzestan, Lorestan, Markazi, and Sistan and Baluchistan. On Wednesday, the U.S. resumed striking Iran during daylight, further showing the increasing tempo of the attacks. An attack on Greater Tunb Island, a strategic point in the Strait of Hormuz, targeted Iranian defense and missile sites, Central Command said. Also Read: Certain elements in Israeli govt want the war to continue indefinitely: US VP JD Vance Meanwhile, the U.S. military said it opened fire on the Curacao-flagged oil tanker Belma sailing toward Kharg Island, Iran's main oil export terminal in the Persian Gulf. After the ship "ignored multiple warnings," a U.S. aircraft disabled the merchant vessel by firing a missile into the ship's smokestack. Another American strike Wednesday targeted a barracks for Iran's 388th Mechanized Infantry Brigade, which operates tanks and armored vehicles, in Sistan and Baluchestan province, Iranian state television reported. The report said Americans fired at least 13 missiles in the attack and the seven dead included conscripts and career soldiers. A number of troops were wounded. Iran retaliated Thursday with missile and drone attacks on Bahrain, Jordan and Kuwait, authorities in those countries home to U.S. forces said. There was no immediate acknowledgment of damage or casualties from the attacks. Meanwhile, Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi condemned an overnight drone attack on the city of Irbil in Iraq's semiautonomous northern Kurdish region. The drone, which authorities said had been intercepted, came during his trip to the U.S. in which he said Iraq would work to disarm non-state armed groups, including those backed by Iran. The Strait of Hormuz remains at the heart of the fighting The latest round of fighting is focused on the Strait of Hormuz. How to reopen the strait has bedeviled the U.S. since Iran choked it off in the early days of the war. During the interim deal, some ships began moving through the passage using a route near Oman overseen by the U.S. military that is outside Tehran's control. In recent days, Iran attacked ships using that route and back-and-forth attacks ensued. The U.S. has threatened to reopen the strait by force, but experts say that would require a much bigger armada if not tens of thousands of ground troops. Imposing the blockade is another way to put pressure on Iran. But in the meantime, oil prices are rising. The price for Brent crude oil, the international standard, traded above $85 a barrel on Thursday, more than 15% higher than the price before the war, but still well below the nearly $120 reached at the height of the conflict. (You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel) (You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel) Prime ExclusivesInvestment IdeasStock Report PlusePaperWealth Edition
Israel's curious silence as the US and Iran trade fresh strikes
Israel's curious silence as the US and Iran trade fresh strikes As the US leads fresh strikes on Iran, Israel has adopted an unusually low profile despite long pushing Washington towards military action. Analysts say the strategy buys Israel time to rebuild its defences, avoid direct retaliation and preserve diplomatic space, even as calls to "finish the job" persist at home. As the United States and Iran edge closer to a wider conflict with fresh rounds of strikes, Israel has taken an unusually low profile. The silence is striking because Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had long pressed Donald Trump to confront Tehran militarily, playing a key role in the run-up to earlier US-Israeli operations. After all, it was Netanyahu who had successfully sold the idea of eliminating Ayatollah Khamenei and Iran's top leadership in a single blow, paving the way for the joint US-Israeli strikes on February 28 and the war that followed. Even ahead of the latest escalation, Israel shared fresh intelligence with the Pentagon about an alleged Iranian assassination plot targeting Donald Trump, a move that, among a host of other factors, ultimately pushed the US President towards the ongoing military action. Yet, with Washington now leading the attacks on Iran, Israel has stepped back from the public stage. So, what explains this shift? A SAFER DISTANCE FROM IRAN'S FIRE Israel's strategy of staying on the sidelines has, for now, spared it from becoming the primary target of Iranian retaliation, while other regional players hosting US military bases -- such as Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan and Oman -- have borne the brunt of Tehran's retaliation. This gives Israel valuable time to quietly replenish its already strained air-defence systems. Notably, in the latest round of strikes, the US has also avoided using Israeli territory as a launch pad. But the balancing act may not last. With tensions between the US and Iran capable of spiralling into a wider war with a single misstep by Tehran -- or a direct attack on Israel -- Netanyahu knows his country may not be able to stay on the sidelines indefinitely. THE 'FINISH THE JOB' VOICES However, Israel's muted public posture does not necessarily reflect a lack of appetite for renewed military action. According to The New York Times, calls to "finish the job" have persisted in Israel since the ceasefire with Iran in April. Many within the country's security establishment believe the campaign ended before Israel could strike key Iranian energy infrastructure and other strategic targets that, in their view, might have severely weakened the Islamic Republic. "Everybody in the defense establishment and the government is rooting for another shot," Nimrod Novik, a former adviser to ex-Israeli Prime Minister Shimon Peres and now a fellow at the Israel Policy Forum, told The New York Times. "There's an old IDF slogan -- just one more hill, and victory is assured," he said, while cautioning that history has rarely borne out that assumption. Novik also told The New York Times that much of the Israeli public would be willing to endure more missile attacks and disruptions to daily life if it meant permanently eliminating what they see as the Iranian threat. WHY NETANYAHU IS HOLDING BACK At the same time, analysts quoted by The New York Times cautioned that another war would come at a significant economic cost for Israel, while any expanded campaign against Iran's infrastructure would likely inflict greater suffering on Iranian civilians than on the country's leadership. The newspaper also reported that Netanyahu's relative silence during the latest round of hostilities reflects a broader strategic calculation. Analysts told The New York Times that Israel cannot afford to be seen internationally as the country pushing for another war, especially amid the widespread perception that Netanyahu played a major role in drawing US President Donald Trump into the earlier conflict. For now, that has left Israel pursuing what many see as the least risky option: waiting while Washington and Tehran remain locked in a cycle of strikes and counterstrikes. Another reason cited by analysts is that if Israel were to launch airstrikes on Iran, it would also have to use the airspace of Jordan, Syria and Iraq, broadening the theatre of engagement and further escalating the regional crisis. A WARNING BENEATH THE SILENCE Even so, Netanyahu has made it clear that Israel will respond with far greater force if it comes under attack. "I will say this to the leaders of Iran: Do not count on it being quiet if you attack us," he said at a conference in Dimona, southern Israel, a city that was hit by Iranian missiles in March. "Do not count on a rerun. Because it will not be a rerun, and that was already powerful enough. This will be a different event, much more powerful." Yet, the waiting game carries risks of its own. Danny Citrinowicz, a retired Israeli military intelligence officer specialising in Iran, told The New York Times that while the US and Iran exchange missiles, drones and threats, Tehran could be quietly advancing its nuclear programme beyond international scrutiny. With inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency still barred from Iran, he said, Israel must increasingly rely on its own intelligence network to gauge Tehran's intentions.
'Ready To Fight Till End': Iran Signals Tough Stance Amid Trump's Threat, Says It Won't Stick To MoU If...
Iran's parliament speaker and chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, has said Tehran remains ready to fight until the end to safeguard its national security. He delivered the remarks while warning that Iran has no obligation to honour the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the United States if it does not benefit from the pact. "Iran has never welcomed war but must always be prepared to fight and stand firm to protect its interests," Ghalibaf said, according to Al Arabiya English. He added that "diplomacy and negotiation remain tools Tehran intends to use to secure its national interests", but stressed that "talks at this stage do not amount to compromise." Rather, he said, "negotiations and war form part of a broader strategy of resistance to protect Iran's interests, and treating the two as mutually exclusive options would be a strategic error", the outlet reported. Ghalibaf's remarks come amid the collapse of the ceasefire established under the 14-point Islamabad Memorandum, which Iran and the US signed last month to end the war between the two countries. US President Donald Trump declared the truce "over" following fresh exchanges of fire after Iran allegedly struck commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, prompting the US to launch retaliatory strikes and reimpose a naval blockade on Iranian ports. ALSO READ: 'Era Of Bullying, Extortion Is Over': Iran's MB Ghalibaf Warns US After It Hits 80 Targets Ghalibaf, who led Iran's negotiating team at the Islamabad talks in April alongside Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, has repeatedly accused Washington of violating the memorandum in recent weeks, including through continued strikes, the reinstatement of oil sanctions, and what he called Iran's adjustments to shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz. He said on Friday that Tehran remained "distrustful of the Americans" and was prepared for "all-out defence" should the US breach the agreement further. The comments also follow Trump's warning that the US has plans to "decimate and destroy" Iran should Tehran act on a reported assassination plot against him, a claim based on Israeli intelligence shared with US officials. ALSO READ: US Missiles Strike Near Children's Cancer Hospital In Iran's Ahvaz As Fresh Attacks Continue Essential Business Intelligence, Sharp Market Insights, Practical Personal Finance Advice, Daily Fuel, Gold and Silver Prices and Latest Stories â On NDTV Profit.
The illusion of collapse: Why the US-Iran ceasefire is actually a bargaining tool
At first glance, the ceasefire understanding between the United States and Iran appears to be steadily unravelling. Public rhetoric has hardened, military signalling continues unabated, and both sides increasingly question each otherâs commitment to de-escalation. Yet appearances can be deceptive. Rather than signalling the collapse of diplomacy, these developments point to a carefully managed process in which the ceasefire itself has become an instrument of negotiation. This deliberate use of tactical ambiguityâcarefully deploying military, diplomatic, and economic measures-serves to keep negotiations alive and strengthen bargaining leverage, emphasizing that the ceasefire endures not through resolved differences but through strategic ambiguity that benefits all principal actors. For President Donald Trump, sustaining the ceasefire is as much a political challenge as a diplomatic one. His administration must reconcile competing domestic constituencies whose expectations are fundamentally at odds. The pro-Israel lobby and influential evangelical groups expect unwavering American support for Israel and remain deeply sceptical of any accommodation with Tehran. Conversely, a war-weary electorate has little appetite for another prolonged military engagement in West Asia, particularly when inflation, fiscal pressures and economic uncertainty dominate domestic concerns. With the mid-term elections approaching, any perception of weakness towards Iran could invite political criticism, while renewed military escalation risks alienating voters concerned about its economic and strategic costs. These competing pressures have compelled Washington to pursue a dual-track approachâkeeping diplomatic channels open even as it projects military resolve to reassure allies and address domestic anxieties about stability and security. Israel confronts a similar political dilemma. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has consistently portrayed the conflict as an existential struggle. A ceasefire that ends hostilities without visibly achieving its declared objectives risks being perceived as an incomplete victory. With elections approaching, PM Netanyahu must demonstrate that the high political, military and economic costs of the war have yielded tangible strategic gains. Failure to do so could not only undermine his electoral prospects but also revive the legal challenges that have long shadowed his political career. Israelâs continued pressure on Iran must therefore be viewed not merely through the lens of national security, but also as an imperative of political survival. Iran, meanwhile, appears both emboldened and compelled to adopt a harder negotiating posture. The assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei transformed the conflict into a deeply emotional national cause. Massive funeral processions and widespread calls for revenge have generated strong public pressure for a forceful response, leaving the leadership with little political space for compromise. Within Shia Islam, resistance to perceived injustice and the ideal of martyrdom constitute central elements of its religio-political ethos. Khameneiâs assassination has therefore been projected not merely as the death of a national leader, but as the martyrdom of a religious and political symbol whose sacrifice against American injustice demands both resistance and retribution. At the same time, the assassination of Khamenei and the deaths of several senior military commanders have strengthened the influence of hard-line elements within Iranâs strategic establishment. After four decades of sanctions, economic isolation and sustained confrontation with the United States and Israel, these factions view the present crisis as an opportunity to negotiate from a position of strength. Tehranâs uncompromising public posture should therefore be seen not merely as ideological defiance, but as a political necessity aimed at preserving domestic cohesion while reinforcing its bargaining leverage. Iranâs strikes against U.S. military facilities in Jordan and Gulf bases aim beyond immediate retaliation, exposing vulnerabilities and advancing its long-term goal of reducing U.S. military presence in the Gulf, while demonstrating its capacity to impose high costs if negotiations falter, emphasizing strategic bargaining objectives. Equally significant is what Iran has chosen not to do. Despite its uncompromising rhetoric, Tehran has avoided direct large-scale attacks on Israel. This tactical restraint is intended to deny Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu the electoral advantages of a wider war, while preserving differences between Washington and Tel Aviv over the pace and endgame of the negotiations. The maritime domain has become central to Iranâs bargaining strategy. As Oman and other Gulf states explore alternative southern shipping routes to reduce dependence on the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran has signalled that these corridors would remain vulnerable in any future conflict. The message is unmistakable: alternative routes cannot neutralise Iranâs leverage over Gulf energy exports. Maritime geography thus remains one of Tehranâs most effective instruments of deterrence and negotiation. Against this backdrop, President Trumpâs decision to reinstate the naval blockade of Iranian ports underscores Washingtonâs continued reliance on maritime coercion as a bargaining instrument. Although the proposed 20 per cent escort charge appears to have been moderated under pressure from allies, the blockade itself perpetuates tactical uncertainty. However, the resulting increase in security risks, insurance premiums and freight costs imposes economic burdens on global shipping and energy markets, potentially diluting the blockadeâs strategic objectives even as it strengthens Washingtonâs negotiating leverage. Strategic consequences The greatest danger lies in this environment of calibrated ambiguity. Measures intended to deter adversaries, reassure allies or strengthen negotiating leverage can easily be misread by actors driven by different political compulsions, making miscalculationârather than deliberate escalationâthe gravest threat to regional stability. Recent developments across Syria, Turkey and Yemen illustrate how tactical signalling can produce unintended strategic consequences. Washingtonâs willingness to reconsider F-35 sales to Turkey and deepen engagement with Syriaâs new leadership appears aimed at strengthening a Turkey-centred regional security architecture while simultaneously reducing Russian and Iranian influence. However, such a strategy also carries significant risks. It could sharpen competition among Turkey, Iran and Israel in Syria, potentially opening another front in the regional conflict. The attack on the Iranian airlines at Sanaa airport could be intended to increase pressure on Tehran. However, it could provoke a renewed Houthi escalation around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, opening another major maritime front. Such an outcome would threaten one of the worldâs most critical trade corridors, compounding further disruptions to global energy supplies and international commerce while unsettling regional partners, particularly Saudi Arabia, whose overriding priority remains stability at this stage. It is time for both Washington and Tehran to recognise that tactical ambiguity may serve the interests of negotiation, but it must not be allowed to produce irreversible strategic consequences. Disclaimer Views expressed above are the author's own.
US strikes expand into northern Iran as it disables ship trying to run blockade
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) â The United States intensified its strikes targeting Iran early Thursday, hitting targets further north as American forces also fired into a ship it accused of trying to break its naval blockade on the Islamic Republic. Iran retaliated with missile and drone fire targeting Bahrain, Jordan and Kuwait before dawn. Days of back-and-forth strikes by the U.S. and Iran across the Middle East â and renewed threats to the Strait of Hormuz â have shredded the interim deal to end the Iran war and could tip the region back into all-out war. Already, Iranian officials say U.S. strikes have killed more than 35 people and wounded over 300 others. Strikes also reached into areas around Iranâs capital, Tehran, for the first time of this latest round of violence. When the U.S. and Israel launched the war on Iran on Feb. 28, Tehran effectively closed the strait to shipping traffic, a move that sent the price of oil, fertilizer and many other goods soaring far beyond the region and gave Iran major leverage in negotiations. US and Iran trade threats as attacks intensify Those rising prices pose a particular challenge to U.S. President Donald Trump and his Republican Party, which hopes to retain control of Congress in elections in November. But Washington has struggled to successfully reopen the waterway, leading to Trump reimposing the naval blockade Wednesday. Iranâs parliament speaker and lead negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, said Iran was prepared for a fuller military confrontation if the U.S. does not live up to the terms of the interim deal, and Iranâs paramilitary Revolutionary Guard threatened to halt all energy exports from the Middle East over the blockade. âThe export of oil and gas from the region will be either for everyone or for no one,â the Guard said. Trump again insisted Iran was ready to strike a peace deal, but he did not elaborate. âThey donât like what weâre doing, and they do want to settle. Weâll find out whether or not we settle with them, or we just finish it off,â he said Wednesday at the U.S. Army War College in Pennsylvania. Trump separately said on social media that Tehran made a goodwill gesture by releasing an American citizen wrongly detained in Iran since 2024. He didnât release further details. Human rights lawyer Jared Genser released a statement identifying the detainee as his client Dena Karari, a U.S.-Iranian citizen who runs a nonprofit and was charged with espionage. Iran did not immediately acknowledge the release and her case was not publicly known, as is sometimes the case with detentions in the Islamic Republic. Both the US and Iran launch attacks as blockade is reimposed The U.S. strikes early Thursday hit around Tehran, state media reported. It also reported that American attacks targeted Semnan province, home to Iranâs ballistic missile production and space program. On Wednesday, the U.S. resumed striking Iran during daylight, further showing the increasing tempo of the attacks. An attack on Greater Tunb Island, a strategic point in the Strait of Hormuz, targeted Iranian defense and missile sites, Central Command said. Meanwhile, the U.S. military said it opened fire on the Curacao-flagged oil tanker Belma sailing toward Kharg Island, Iranâs main oil export terminal in the Persian Gulf. After the ship âignored multiple warnings,â a U.S. aircraft disabled the merchant vessel by firing a missile into the shipâs smokestack. Another American strike Wednesday targeted a barracks for Iranâs 388th Mechanized Infantry Brigade, which operates tanks and armored vehicles, in Sistan and Baluchestan province, Iranian state television reported. The report said Americans fired at least 13 missiles in the attack and the seven dead included conscripts and career soldiers. A number of troops were wounded. Iran retaliated Thursday with missile and drone attacks on Bahrain, Jordan and Kuwait, authorities in those countries home to U.S. forces said. There was no immediate acknowledgment of damage or casualties from the attacks. The Strait of Hormuz remains at the heart of the fighting The latest round of fighting is focused on the Strait of Hormuz. How to reopen the strait has bedeviled the U.S. since Iran choked it off in the early days of the war. During the interim deal, some ships began moving through the passage using a route near Oman overseen by the U.S. military that is outside Tehranâs control. In recent days, Iran attacked ships using that route â and back-and-forth attacks ensued. The U.S. has threatened to reopen the strait by force â but experts say that would require a much bigger armada if not tens of thousands of ground troops. Imposing the blockade is another way to put pressure on Iran. But in the meantime, oil prices are rising. The price for Brent crude oil, the international standard, traded above $85 a barrel on Thursday â more than 15% higher than the price before the war, but still well below the nearly $120 reached at the height of the conflict.
US military says it completed latest strikes on Iran, targets included Bandar Abbas
"U.S. forces struck Iranian command centers, air defense sites, missile and drone capabilities, and coastal surveillance facilities," the U.S. Central Command said on X. Also read: US broadens Iran offensive; Tehran strikes Bahrain, Kuwait The statement said the U.S. military hit targets in multiple locations, including Bandar Abbas, home to Iran's largest port and key navy and Revolutionary Guards facilities on the Strait of Hormuz. "Earlier this morning, American forces struck coastal defense and cruise missile sites on Greater Tunb Island during a 90-minute wave," it added. Trump this week reiterated threats to hit Iranian energy targets while also threatening to target bridges next week. The 1949 Geneva Conventions on humanitarian conduct in war prohibit attacks on sites considered essential for civilians. After Trump's past threats to strike such targets earlier this year, international law experts in the U.S. had said such attacks may amount to war crimes. Also read: Strait of Hormuz closure must end within weeks or global economy will suffer, IEA chief warns Trump also received condemnation in April when he threatened to destroy Iran's entire civilization before reaching a ceasefire with Tehran. The Iran war began when the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on February 28 and Iran responded with its own strikes on Israel and Gulf states that host U.S. bases. U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran and Israeli attacks on Lebanon during the war have killed thousands and displaced millions. The war has also sent oil prices and shaken markets around the world. (You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel) (You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel)
Truce in tatters as fresh attacks threaten return to all-out war with Iran
The United States has struck Iranâs coastal defences and missile sites after reimposing a naval blockade of its ports. Iranian officials have meanwhile threatened to shut off more regional energy exports, saying the country was engaged in an âexistential warâ with the US. WATCH THE VIDEO ABOVE: US escalates Iran strikes for fifth consecutive day Know the news with the 7NEWS app: Download today The latest escalation of attacks and counterattacks launched by the US and Iran has kept the region on edge days after a fragile truce collapsed, raising the spectre of a return to full-scale war although analysts generally view that as less likely. Hostilities have intensified since Iran said late on Saturday it had closed the Strait of Hormuz. The ongoing military operations are also keeping ships from transiting the vital artery, which carried about a fifth of global oil and gas shipments before the war. Brent crude oil, the international benchmark, closed at a one-month high at $US84.95 a barrel on Wednesday. âExistential war with Americaâ US Central Command said the military had attacked coastal defence systems and cruise missile storage and launch sites on Iranâs Greater Tunb Island, and had completed the wave of strikes within about 90 minutes. âAt 6am today, US Central Command forces began launching a wave of strikes against Iran,â the US military said. âThe strikes are designed to further degrade military capabilities Iranian forces have used to attack commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.â In a statement issued hours after the Iranian Mehr news agency reported that US projectiles had hit a location on Iranâs Hengam Island in the strait. Iranâs top negotiator Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said Iranian security depended on maintaining what he called âIranian arrangementsâ in the strait. âWe are in an essential and existential war with America,â Qalibaf said in a statement. Prior to the war, Iran had not asserted the authority to act as a gatekeeper over the strait. The war has killed thousands of people and displaced millions, mainly in Iran and Lebanon, where conflict restarted between Israel and Iran-aligned militant group Hezbollah. US President Donald Trump on Wednesday said that Iran badly wants to settle with the US, adding that the US would decide whether or not to take such a step. Trump said on Tuesday that US negotiators had been in touch with their Iranian counterparts to tell them âyou better make a dealâ. Three US officials told Reuters that US strikes aimed at forcing open the strait are also targeting Iranian military capabilities the US would want to destroy before executing more complex operations. Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped to a fraction of its pre-war activity. Iranâs Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said on Wednesday it had struck US military targets in the region, including in Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan. It also threatened on Wednesday to shut off more regional energy exports, saying the US âmust brace for the closure of all other export corridors that benefit the US and its alliesâ. âNo plans for negotiationsâ An interim ceasefire deal signed last month was meant to lead to further negotiations including on Iranâs nuclear program and to a permanent truce but a return to talks has faltered. âWe have no plans for negotiations at the moment and are focused on defence,â Tasnim news agency quoted Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei as saying. Qalibaf, who is also speaker of Iranâs parliament, said that if Iran did not benefit from its memorandum of understanding with the US, âwe have no reason to adhere to such an understandingâ. Iran never welcomed war but it must always be ready to fight and âstand to the endâ to protect national security and Iranian interests, Qalibaf said. He added Iran must also use âthe tools of diplomacy and negotiation,â and choosing either negotiation or war as the sole course of action would be a strategic error. The US says Iran attacked seven commercial ships over the last week, leaving nearly a dozen crew members killed, missing or injured. Iranian government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani said at least 30 civilians had been killed in recent days due to the US strikes on southern Iran, state media reported. Stream free on
US launches strikes as Iran warns of 'existential war'
US launches strikes as Iran warns of 'existential war' The United States has struck Iran's coastal defences and missile sites after reimposing a naval blockade of its ports while Iranian officials threatened to shut off more regional energy exports, saying the country was engaged in an "existential war" with the US. The latest escalation of attacks and counterattacks launched by the US and Iran has kept the region on edge days after a fragile truce collapsed, raising the spectre of a return to full-scale war although analysts generally view that as less likely. Hostilities have intensified since Iran said late on Saturday it had closed the Strait of Hormuz. The ongoing military operations are also keeping ships from transiting the vital artery, which carried about a fifth of global oil and gas shipments before the war. Brent crude oil, the international benchmark, closed at a one-month high at $US84.95 a barrel on Wednesday. US Central Command said the military had attacked coastal defence systems and cruise missile storage and launch sites on Iran's Greater Tunb Island, and had completed the wave of strikes within about 90 minutes. "At 6am today, US Central Command forces began launching a wave of strikes against Iran," the US military said. "The strikes are designed to further degrade military capabilities Iranian forces have used to attack commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz." In a statement issued hours after the Iranian Mehr news agency reported that US projectiles had hit a location on Iran's Hengam Island in the strait, Iran's top negotiator Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said Iranian security depended on maintaining what he called "Iranian arrangements" in the strait. "We are in an essential and existential war with America," Qalibaf said in a statement. Prior to the war, Iran had not asserted the authority to act as a gatekeeper over the strait. The war has killed thousands of people and displaced millions, mainly in Iran and Lebanon, where conflict restarted between Israel and Iran-aligned militant group Hezbollah. At 3 p.m. ET, U.S. forces launched operations for a second wave of strikes today against Iran. The strikes are targeting Iranian military capabilities used to threaten vessels freely transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, an international waterway vital to global commerce. TheâŚâ U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) July 15, 2026 US President Donald Trump on Wednesday said that Iran badly wants tosettle with the United States, adding that the US would decide whether or not to take such a step. Trump said on Tuesday that US negotiators had been in touch with their Iranian counterparts to tell them "you better make a deal". Three US officials told Reuters that US strikes aimed at forcing open the strait are also targeting Iranian military capabilities the US would want to destroy before executing more complex operations. Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped to a fraction of its pre-war activity. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said on Wednesday it had struck US military targets in the region, including in Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan. It also threatened on Wednesday to shut off more regional energy exports, saying the US "must brace for the closure of all other export corridors that benefit the US and its allies". An interim ceasefire deal signed last month was meant to lead to further negotiations including on Iran's nuclear program and to a permanent truce but a return to talks has faltered. "We have no plans for negotiations at the moment and are focused on defence," Tasnim news agency quoted Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei as saying. Qalibaf, who is also speaker of Iran's parliament, said that if Iran did not benefit from its memorandum of understanding with the US, "we have no reason to adhere to such an understanding". Iran never welcomed war but it must always be ready to fight and "stand to the end" to protect national security and Iranian interests, Qalibaf said. He added Iran must also use "the tools of diplomacy and negotiation," and choosing either negotiation or war as the sole course of action would be a strategic error. The US says Iran attacked seven commercial ships over the last week, leaving nearly a dozen crew members killed, missing or injured. Iranian government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani said at least 30 civilians had been killed in recent days due to the US strikes on southern Iran, state media reported.
Futures Rise After Blowout ASML Earnings Boost Tech Sentiment
Futures Rise After Blowout ASML Earnings Boost Tech Sentiment Futures are higher led by technology stocks, after solid earnings from ASML offered fresh evidence of the relentless demand for chips enabling the global AI buildout and boosted sentiment across the AI Infra trade. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are up 0.1% and Nasdaq futures rise 0.4%, both off session highs. In Tech, focus is on ASML +4% on guidance raise (US Semicap Equipment peers +2-4% in sympathy), PYPL +20% on reports of a Stripe/Advent takeover offer; AAPL +0.50% and BABA +4% on China approval of Alibaba âQwen AIâ integration into the iPhone experience; and NVDA flat on Jensen commentary that Vera Rubin chips were on track for deliver to customers (countering delay talk).  On the US/Iran front, the US carried out another round of strikes near the Strait of Hormuz overnight and President Trump said the US may hit power plants and bridges next week unless Iran returns to negotiations and makes a deal (also have report from Axios that Trump held a meeting in the situation room yesterday to discuss a new offensive). According to JPM, the tech complex is also getting a boost thanks to stabilization in Korea, with KOSPI adding 6% overnight (JPM APAC says that foreign & institutional demand is stepping into Korea as domestic retail investors are selling). Asia finished mixed (Shanghai -29bps / Hang Seng +1.4% / Nikkei +1.49% / Kospi +6.3%) as the day to day volatility continued in Korea (Hynix +4%, which appeared to be a âcatch upâ to SKHY post its +27% move in the US session). Bond yields edged higher in the US and Europe, with the yield on 10-year Treasuries up one basis point to 4.60%. The dollar wavered. While money markets have mostly priced out the possibility of a Federal Reserve hike later this month, expectations for a move in September remained high. Commodities are seeing a bid with gold the notable laggard. Brent crude futures rise 0.5% to just above $85 a barrel while European natural gas futures rise 3% to the highest since March. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is near flat. Todayâs macro data focus in on PPI and then macro read-through from names in Fins and Transports.  In premarket trading, Mag 7stocks are mostly higher (Apple +0.6%, Amazon +0.3%, Microsoft +0.3%, Tesla +0.2%, Meta Platforms +0.2%, Alphabet -0.5%, Nvidia -0.2%) ASML Holding NV ADRs (ASML) gain 3% after the company lifted its annual sales forecast for the second time this year and laid out plans to increase production as a surge in artificial intelligence spending drives demand for the Dutch companyâs chip-making machines. BlackRock (BLK) gains 4% after pulling in $192 billion of net client cash in the second quarter, with investors pouring money into exchange-traded funds and pushing total assets above $15 trillion for the first time. Elevance Health (ELV) falls 7% after boosting its profit guidance by less than Wall Street had hoped, as the company grapples with recent federal policy changes that have made healthcare more expensive. Peer health insurers are also lower, with Humana (HUM) down 1.6% and Centene (CNC) falling 4%. Lionsgate Studios (LION) climbs 7% after Reuters reported that the company is exploring a sale and has attracted takeover interest from Bollore Group. Reuters cited three unidentified people familiar with the matter. PayPal (PYPL) jumps 20% after Reuters reported Stripe and private equity company Advent âInternational have made a joint offer to âbuy PayPal for $60.50 per share, valuing the payments firm at more than $53 billion. Pentair (PNR) tumbles 22% after the water treatment company cut its adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year. The company also said it appointed Robert Fishman as interim CFO after Nicholas Brazis resigned on July 10 to pursue another opportunity at a private company. Phoenix Education (PXED) drops 10% after the online education company trimmed its net revenue guidance for the full year. SK Hynix ADRs (SKHY) fall 6%. SpaceX (SPCX) is up 0.7% after closing on Tuesday just $1 above the IPO price. In other corporate news Nokia says it developed the first commercial AI-driven radio access network (RAN) platform together with Nvidia to radically increase the amount of data operators can transmit using existing infrastructure. Apollo landed the biggest private credit deal on record, offering Broadcom $35 billion of debt, in the latest sign that the buyout shop-turned-blue chip lender is muscling in on the turf of Wall Street. OpenAIâs much-anticipated push into consumer devices is slated to begin with a mobile, screen-free smart speaker designed to be a new type of home computer for the AI era. Lionsgate Studios is exploring a sale and has attracted takeover interest from Bollore Group, Reuters reports. Tech sentiment was boosted by blowout results from European chip giant ASML and a rebound in Korean stocks. Coming into ASMLâs results, analysts set the bar high, expecting an upgrade to full-year net sales guidance. Europeâs most valuable company delivered, but clarity is needed on its conference call as to whether the chip equipment leader can meet the required capacity in the face of soaring AI-fueled demand. And speaking of lack of capacity, overnight we reported that the biggest US power grid failed for a third straight time to secure enough future supply commitments to ensure reliability in coming years amid a boom in data center demand. Power-hungry data centers have increased supply costs for the largest US electric grid by more than 60%, the system watchdog said. Oil prices rose for a third straight day after the US military launched a fresh wave of strikes against Iran, with Brent advancing 1.1% to around $85.60 a barrel. Overnight President Trump said the US may hit power plants and bridges next week unless Iran returns to negotiations and makes a deal (also have report from Axios that Trump held a meeting in the situation room yesterday to discuss a new offensive). Despite the uncertainty created by the standoff, investors say crude prices remain well off their highs above $100 a barrel from earlier in the conflict. Instead, traders are looking at whether earnings can justify high valuations, with early results this season looking promising. âInvestors are aware that the road toward peace could never have been expected to be a straight line,â said Stephan Kemper, chief investment strategist at BNP Paribas Wealth Management. âAs such, company fundamentals matter more than ever.â Bullish AI momentum is not without risks. Repeating what we said over the weekend, Bloomberg writes that signs of Hyperscaler credit stress has reached the highest since Goldman Sachs launched the basket in February. Hyperscaler bond basket: another day, another record wide https://t.co/Ge41UpsaL9 pic.twitter.com/nssT8MoTeH â zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 15, 2026 The data-center building boom has sparked an explosion of debt funding, with investors not paying enough attention to the terms of their lending, Bloomberg also noted. The threat posed by oil prices will remain in focus with the release of Juneâs producer price print. Inflation data on Tuesday delivered a strong downside surprise, prompting traders to dial down their expectations for near-term interest-rate hikes. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will testify in the Senate on Wednesday, with New York Fed President John Williams and Governor Lisa Cook scheduled to speak at separate engagements. âAny hint toward the CPI print being an outlier could revive rate hike concerns,â Kempner said. âThis would be even more true if other Fed officials start to echo yesterdayâs comments from the Fed Chair about the mission being ânot yetâ accomplished.â In politics, acting Attorney General Todd Blanche is set to appear Wednesday before the US Senate in support of his nomination to lead the Justice Department â just days after a federal judge in Miami issued harsh criticism of his actions in the job. Over in Europe, Marine Le Penâs revived bid for the French presidency is giving investors like Vanguard and Natixis another reason to avoid the countryâs government bonds. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 is little changed thanks to ASML whose shares rise ~5% after the firm lifted its annual sales forecast for the second time this year and laid out plans to increase production. Gains in luxury names are also helping to offset losses elsewhere after Richemont sales expanded nearly twice as much as expected. Here are the biggest movers: European fintech stocks gain after Reuters reported that Stripe and private equity company Advent are offering to buy PayPal at a valuation of more than $53 billion Richemont surges as much as 7.4% to an all-time high after the Swiss jeweler reported first-quarter sales growth that was nearly twice as strong as expected ASML shares rise as much as 7.9% after the chip equipment firm raised FY guidance for this year and set capacity expansion goals for the next two years ICG shares rise as much as 3.4%, trimming year-to-date declines, after the alternative asset manager reported first-quarter assets under management slightly ahead of estimates Barratt Redrow shares rise as much as 6% after the UK homebuilder said it will return ÂŁ400 million to shareholders this year. Sector peers are also finding support from Barrattâs FY update Camurus shares jump as much as 16%, the most since November, after the Swedish biopharmaceutical firm reported better-than-expected revenue and profit for the second quarter Rio Tinto falls as much as 2.3% in London, the most in a week, after the miner reported 2Q copper production that declined from the previous comparable period Elis shares slide as much as 4% to âŹ24.64 after holder Canada Pension Plan Investment Board sold about 19.3 million shares for âŹ24.60 apiece AFRY shares fall as much as 12%, hitting a 2014 low, after the Swedish engineerâs earnings fell short of expectations in the second quarter, according to analysts at Jefferies Handelsbanken shares decline as much as 6.2% after the lender reported net interest income for the second quarter that missed estimates while analysts also note weak lending growth in Sweden Premier Group falls as much as 7.3% in Johannesburg, the most since April 2025, after stockholder CapitalWorks sold shares in the packaged foods company at a discount Asian stocks climbed the most in almost two weeks after a softer US inflation print relieved concerns over imminent rate hikes, while South Korea led advances in technology shares. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 1.9%, the most since July 3. Leading contributor SK Hynix soared 9% in Seoul, tracking a surge in its American depositary receipts Tuesday, while chipmakers Samsung and TSMC also climbed after gains in US tech shares. South Koreaâs benchmark Kospi jumped 6.2%, while Taiwanâs Taiex climbed the most in two weeks. Mainland China stocks edged lower after data showed the economy slowed more than expected last quarter, to the weakest in more than three years.  With earnings seasons starting, Asian software and IT services stocks followed global peers lower after IBM missed earnings expectations. Meanwhile, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose the most in a week, as internet firms such as Tencent and Alibaba gained.  âSofter-than-expected US inflation data has reduced the risk of a more aggressive Fed tightening cycle, which had become a more prominent concern over the past week as renewed US-Iran tensions pushed oil prices higher,â said Rajeev De Mello, global macro portfolio manager at GAMA Asset Management. âInvestors have also absorbed last weekâs SK Hynix equity issuance, allowing the Korean semiconductor sector to rebound, while the US earnings season has opened on a constructive note.â In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is near flat. The Norwegian krone slipped to the bottom of the G-10 FX pile, falling 0.4% against the greenback after Norwayâs core inflation surprised to the downside. In rates, treasuries are cheaper by 1bp to 2bp across the curve, unwinding a portion of gains seen Tuesday following a soft CPI print. Treasury curve slightly flatter on the day with front-end leading losses, where 2-year yields trade around 4.215% and cheaper by 2bp on the day. US 10-year yields trade around 4.605% with bunds and gilts both trading slightly cheaper in the sector. IG dollar issuance slate includes a couple of deals. Goldman Sachs was one of three issuers Tuesday, selling a combined $13.9 billion of bonds. They paid an average of about 2.3 basis points in new issue concessions on deals that were 2.2 times covered. US session focus includes a handful of Federal Reserve speakers and June PPI data.  In commodities, WTI futures advance almost 1% rising for a third day, and adding some upside pressure on yields, as Trump threatened further strikes on Iran after the US resumed its blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, and the US carried out more strikes against Iran, hitting dozens of military sites near the strait and along the nationâs coast. Brent crude futures rise 0.5% to just above $85 a barrel while European natural gas futures rise 3% to the highest since March. Precious metals decline. US economic data calendar includes July Empire manufacturing and June PPI (8:30am). Fed calendar includes Williams (8:45am), Warsh testifies before Senate Banking Committee (10am), Cook (1pm) and Musalem (6:30pm). Fed releases latest Beige book at 2pm Market Snapshot Top Overnight News The US launched more airstrikes on Iran, with Donald Trump pledging to intensify his bombardment until Tehran stops attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz and agrees to open the waterway. BBG As the U.S. war with Iran resumes, there is little sign that diplomacy can stop it. Efforts by Arab, Pakistani and other mediators to revive negotiations or restore a ceasefire have shown no public signs of progress, and the overall feeling in the Middle East and beyond is that the fighting will simply continue for now, according to two analysts and a person familiar with the situation. Politico The cost of the war with Iran could be more than triple the most recent estimate of roughly $30 billion, according to three U.S. officials and three people familiar with the internal cost estimates. NBC Nasdaq futures advanced as ASML raised its annual sales forecast for the second time this year, offering fresh evidence of AI-driven demand. SK Hynix continued its volatile run though, with the stock jumping in Seoul but ADRs falling premarket. BBG Stripe and Advent offered to buy PayPal at a valuation of more than $53 billion, Reuters reported. Their $60.50-a-share bid is around 28% more than PayPalâs closing price yesterday. RTRS BABA (Alibaba)âs Qwen AI will be integrated into Apple Intelligence in China. RTRS Chinaâs economy slowed more than expected last quarter to the weakest in more than three years, raising pressure on policymakers to speed up public spending to ensure their annual growth goal is met. Chinaâs Q2 GDP came in a bit below expectations (+4.3% vs. the Street +4.5% and down from +5% in Q1), but retail sales were ahead of plan for June (+1% vs. the Street -0.1%), as was industrial production (+5.3% vs. the Street +4.6%) BBG Trump administration may pursue further executive action addressing China-related concerns over open-source AI models, according to Semafor citing an unnamed senior White House official. Beijing plans to fight attempts to monopolize advances in AI technology, state newspaper Peopleâs Daily reported, following US attempts to curtail overseas access to cutting-edge models. BBG The rush for cash by some of the worldâs largest companies is putting the long bull market at risk. Investors have been cheering the raging bull market for yearsâthree years and nine months, to be preciseâwith the S&P 500 having more than doubled during that period. Now companies are racing to take advantage, raising concern that the party could be coming to an end. WS Fundamental L/S Gross leverage has declined in 5 of the last 6 weeks to 207.2% (28th percentile 1-year, 75th percentile 3-year). After reaching a 4-year high in early June, Fundamental L/S Net leverage has fallen -6.7 pts to 54.5% (22nd percentile 1-year, 39th percentile 3-year). Goldman PB A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newqsuawk APAC stocks traded with a positive bias as most major indices took impetus from the gains on Wall St, where sentiment was underpinned, and Fed rate hike bets were trimmed following softer-than-expected CPI data, while US President Trump also abandoned plans for a 20% Hormuz fee. ASX 200 eked out marginal gains with outperformance in miners following Rio Tinto's quarterly update, although the upside in the index was capped as defensives lag. Nikkei 225 rallied amid tech strength, but with further upside limited following weak Machinery Orders. KOSPI was boosted by the tech-related momentum and with SK Hynix shares up by a double-digit percentage as it played catch-up to the 27% surge in its ADRs. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp diverged with the mainland lagging after a slew of mixed data releases, including Chinese GDP and activity data. Top Asian News China announced a five-year plan to boost consumption and targets CNY 60tln yuan in retail sales by 2030, according to Nikkei. China's stats bureau deputy head said China's CPI and PPI are in reasonable ranges and hard won given most countries face big price increases, while the official added that China's energy supplies are sufficient, production is stable, and imports are under control. Furthermore, it was stated that the Q2 GDP growth slowdown is due mainly to short-term factors and external factors, while H1 GDP growth lays a good foundation for achieving the full-year growth target. Japan added a footnote on BoJ autonomy to its revised fiscal policy draft, Bloomberg reported. Japanese PM Takaichi said FX rates should be determined by the market; boosting international competitiveness will boost the credibility of JPY. India announced INR 1.28tln new semiconductor manufacturing plan, according to reports. European bourses (STOXX 600 U/C) are broadly lower, with the outperformance in the AEX (+0.8%) following ASML earnings. Despite the lack of clear drivers for the underperformance, geopolitics persist, with US President Trump announcing that the US will conduct strikes again on Wednesday and threatening to hit power plants and bridges unless Iran starts to negotiate. Sectors are broadly negative. Consumer Products & Services (+1.2%) tops the sector pile, as positive Richemont earnings lift other luxury names, while Tech (+1.0%) also gains. To the downside lie Optimised Personal Care (-1.1%), Chemicals (-1.1%) and Telecoms (-0.8%). The highly anticipated ASML earnings did not disappoint. Top and bottom line figures beat estimates while raising its FY revenue guidance to EUR 43-45bln (exp. 39.4bln, prev. guided 36-40bln). Looking ahead to Q3, ASML projects sales of between EUR 11-12bln, above Jefferies' estimates of EUR 10.34bln. ASML stated that they are considering a 30% boost to EUV output for 2027 and again in 2028. Both Citi and JPMorgan highlighted this as a positive, with JPMorgan projecting it to add over EUR 65 in EPS in 2028. However, Citi points out that the 2027 production figure would amount to around 85 machines, which is below its forecast of between 90-100. Gains were seen as much as 7.4% at the start of trade, but has since pulled back to around 3.7%. US equity futures are firmer across the board. NQ (+0.5%) is the clear outperformer, helped by the ASML earnings and gains in SK Hynix overnight; however have come off in recent trade (in line with ASML). Banking earnings continue in the US, with Morgan Stanley on the docket. Top European News Ed Miliband's opponents in the Labour Party believe he has failed his bid to become Chancellor, with current Home Secretary Mahmoud seen by some MPs as favourite to take the Chancellor role in Andy Burnham's new government, according to FT. OECD said the UK economy to grow 0.9% in 2026 and 1.1% in 2027, with risks tilted to the downside. Added that fiscal discipline is essential to the UK. German government is planning a EUR 13.3bln energy relief package for 2027, which will be used to assist businesses and consumers. FX G10s mixed against the Buck, which is flat on the day despite being off recent lows. AUD and GBP lead; NOK underperforms. DXY looks to breach 101.00 after lifting from recent lows in the wake of cool US CPI on Tuesday. As Fed Chair Warsh said during the House testimony on Tuesday, one series does not make a trend, so while bets are trimmed for an immediate hike (prev. markets saw a 50% probability of tightening in July), eyes remain on incoming data. In addition to the post-CPI bounce, the Buck is being helped by energy benchmarks, which remain elevated amid a lack of positive Gulf newsflow. NOK is the worst G10 performer after the Norges Bankâs preferred inflation gauge, CPI-ATE, came in cooler than analyst/Norges Bank forecasts. NOK saw immediate pressure on the release (which was originally scheduled for 10th July). AUD and GBP are the best-performing G10 currencies, helped by the above factor as the cooler-than-expected US CPI trimmed bets for near-term Fed tightening, increasing appetite for these high-yielders. For GBP specifically, the UK press suggested Energy Secretary Miliband was less-favoured in the race for Chancellor, now Foreign Secretary Cooper and Home Secretary Mahmood are favourites for the job. Markets think that Mahmood would be fiscally conservative given her view on immigration; however, she lacks experience in economic roles, whereas Cooper previously worked as Chief Secretary to the Treasury under Gordon Brown. GBP/USD +0.1% and either side of the 1.34 mark. Fixed Income USTs remain contained, caught between CPI and Warsh. Bunds lower on energy, but off worst levels despite a sharp but ultimately short-lived decline in the early morning. Gilts opened on the backfoot, given energy. USTs flat in a narrow 108-24+ to 108-31+ band, fresh catalysts light. Commentary remains focused on Juneâs dovish CPI report and the subsequent hawkish Fed testimony from Chair Warsh. Today, we get more insight on both points via Warshâs Senate testimony and US PPI for June. Additionally, Fedâs Williams (voter) is on the docket. Bunds lower by around 20 ticks, but are a similar amount clear of the 124.79 trough. A base that printed in a bout of somewhat short-lived bout of pressure this morning. No obvious catalyst behind that, though it did occur in tandem with modest DAX and EUR downside. Ongoing focus on pension reform may have contributed, given reporting earlier in Politico that suggested pension points could be reduced in some scenarios, saving multiple billions; though, the debate continues and wonât be resolved this week. Alternatively, or additionally, the German Finance Ministry outlined that some EUR 13bln or energy-related relief is planned for 2027, funding for that to be sourced from the climate relief package. Gilts opened lower by 16 ticks and have since moved lower to an 86.89 base, holding above the 86.87 and 86.42 lows from the last two sessions. Pressure the typical underperformance seen in Gilts when energy leads. No real relief from reports, such as the FT, suggesting that Miliband has lost the race to be Chancellor; though, outlets make clear that no decision has been made yet, ahead of Burnham becoming PM this weekend. Germany sells EUR 0.753bln vs exp. EUR 1.0bln 2.50% 2054, EUR 0.768bln vs exp. EUR 1.0bln 2.90% 2056 & EUR 0.759 vs exp. EUR 1.0bln 0.00% 2052 Bund. Australia sells AUD 700mln 4.50% Apr 2033 bonds b/c 4.29, avg yield 4.6620%. Commodities Geopolitics remains in focus, with US and Iran still conducting strikes. Markets appear to be accustomed to the ongoing attacks, with focus now on how transits through the Strait are being impacted. On that note, 11 vessels went through the passage, 9 of those used the Iranian-designated route. Yen Ling Song of S&P Global Energy wrote that âwe are seeing significantly greater caution among shipowners and operatorsâ, given the threat of Iranian strikes. On this front, traders have continued to price in another supply glut this month â and recent rhetoric from President Trump/Iran, does not point to a near term resolution. To recap, Trump warned that they would be striking Iran on Wednesday night, and threatened to hit power plants/bridges next week, unless Iran negotiates. Iran stated that it is a mistake to think military action will force them to talk. Crude benchmarks are modestly firmer this morning. Price action overnight was fairly rangebound, but then dipped in early European trade â benchmarks have remained near recent lows since. Brent Septâ26 traded within a USD 85.02-86.55/bbl range. Spot gold is a little lower this morning, but ultimately within the prior dayâs ranges. Price action which appears to be a bit of pull-back from the extremes seen on Wednesday, following the cooler-than-expected CPI print. The yellow-metal currently holds above the USD 4k/oz mark, in a USD 4,017-4,062/oz range. Base metals hold a negative bias, as markets digested mixed Chinese data. 3M LME Copper traded within a USD 13,550-13,677/t range. US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -0.6mln (exp. -2.7mln), Distillates +2.3mln (exp. +1.0mln), Gasoline -1.7mln (exp. +0.6mln), Cushing +0.2mln. Trade/Tariffs EU Trade Commissioner Sefcovic said they are aiming to have the EU-India FTA implemented in 2027. Central Banks ECB's Nagel said from a monetary policy perspective, it remains advisable to react with caution but to act decisively if needed. Monetary policy will maintain its vigilant stance. ECB's Panetta said EZ inflation is currently around 3% and expected to remain above that level until early 2027. Risks linked to higher energy prices, tighter financial conditions and persistent geopolitical uncertainty appear to be only partially incorporated into market evaluations. Several indicators suggest the rise in equity markets seen after the Iran conflict is due to an underestimation of risks. ECB's goal is to keep inflation expectations firmly anchored, limiting indirect and second-round effects of shocks. ECB's Kocher said they are ready to take monetary policy actions at any time if needed, adding that the ECB will do what is needed to bring inflation to 2% in medium-term and no second round effects seen currently. ECB's Cipollone said that he is not currently seeing second round inflation effects, but monitors inflation expectations "very closely". Geopolitics US President Trump said in a pre-recorded Fox News interview that they are beating up Iran badly and Hormuz has to stay open, while he added that strikes will continue until he says it is enough, as well as stated they will save energy targets for last and will ultimately hit energy targets. Trump also said they will hit Iran hard on Wednesday night, and that next week will get really bad for Iran, in which they will hit Iran's power plants and bridges next week unless Iran comes to the negotiating table. Furthermore, he said US officials spoke to Iran on Tuesday and told Iran that it better make a deal. US Central Command forces began launching an additional round of strikes against Iran at 15:00EDT/20:00BST on Tuesday, to continue degrading Iranian capabilities used to attack commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, while CENTCOM later announced the completion of strikes against Iran. US struck Qeshm Island in southern Iran, and explosions were heard in the maritime area of eastern Hormozgan and Sirik, while explosions were heard in Bandar Abbas and Hengam Island. Explosions were also heard in Bampur and Chabahar in Iran, although Iran's semi-official news agency Tasnim noted officials denied reports of explosions in Chabahar, while explosions were reported in Iran's port city of Bandar Imam Khomeini, and a mineral water plant in Deloran was hit by three projectiles. Furthermore, reports noted that air defences around the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant in Iran became active. IRGC said it targeted enemy weapons and parts storage in Bahrain and Kuwait, while it targeted a drone ramp in Kuwait's Ali Al Salem air base and targeted US positions at Jordan's Azraq base, as well as the US Fifth Fleet Command HQ, fuel facilities and equipment in Bahrain. IRGC said as long as the US evil stays in the region, not a drop of oil and gas will be exported from the region, and that US aggression will have no result other than delaying the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran will respond to the US attacks, Tasnim reported. Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi said the US is making a mistake if it thinks its military attacks and blockade will force them to request negotiations, but also commented that Iran's return to negotiations and tolerance regarding the Strait of Hormuz is possible. Furthermore, he said the MoU effectively no longer exists and that no country should expect Iran to continue implementing the terms of the memorandum. Israeli PM Netanyahu is reportedly to travel to Washington on Saturday evening, aiming to meet with US President Trump, Yedioth reported. US Event calendar 7:00 am: Jul 10 MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -2.2% 8:30 am: Jul Empire Manufacturing, est. 9.2, prior 5.7 8:30 am: Jun PPI Final Demand MoM, est. 0%, prior 1.1% 8:30 am: Jun PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.4% 8:30 am: Jun PPI Final Demand YoY, est. 6.2%, prior 6.5% 8:30 am: Jun PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 5.1%, prior 4.9% Central Bank speakers 8:45 am: Fedâs Williams Delivers Keynote Remarks 10:00 am: Fed Chair Warsh Testifies Before Senate Banking Committee 1:00 pm: Fedâs Cook Speaks on the Economic Outlook 2:00 pm: Fed Releases Beige Book 6:30 pm: Fedâs Musalem Delivers Welcoming Remarks DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap A quick reminder the WOW! pack can be found here but life moves onto to the 2026 "Mapping the World's Prices" document which saw a whole host of press coverage from all round the world yesterday from Athens to Zurich and Berlin to Wellington. The stand-out theme from this year's edition is just how cheap Japan is. For example, a meal for two in Tokyo is a third of a cost of that in Zurich or New York. When we started the document in 2012 the US was very cheap and now its very expensive. Unless a country is in terminal difficulty, relative prices are a good future mean reversion indicator. For Japan we will likely look back on these relative prices as an indicator of how cheap it is. If nothing else itâs a very cheap destination for next year's holidays. There's plenty of other info on 69 globally important cities. See the report here at the Deutsche Bank Research Institute. I wonder how cheap or expensive England 2026 World Cup Winning T-shirts will be in London tomorrow!  As we await the second semi-final, itâs been another eventful 24 hours for markets, with investors taking heart from a huge downside surprise in the US CPI print, even as oil prices kept ratcheting higher. So markets rapidly priced out the chance of a Fed rate hike in a couple of weeksâ time, with US Treasuries posting strong gains as a result. Indeed, the 2yr yield (-9.0bps) was down to 4.19%, its biggest decline since May, whilst the S&P 500 (+0.38%) moved back within 1% of its record high from last month. In Asia US futures continue to rise and the KOSPI is back with a 7% plus day. More on that later but first the US inflation data.  That CPI print was the main catalyst for the cross market rally, after consumer prices fell by -0.4% in June (vs. -0.1% expected). In fact, it was the biggest monthly price drop since the pandemic lockdowns of April 2020, and it pushed the year-on-year reading all the way down to +3.5%, having been at +4.2% in May. Admittedly, that was driven by a big slump in gasoline prices, which plummeted by -9.7% on the month. But even core CPI was surprising on the downside too, with a -0.02% monthly price drop (vs. +0.2% expected) amid a decline in core goods prices and subdued rent inflation. So that marked the first decline for core CPI since May 2020, and it pushed the year-on-year reading for core CPI down to +2.6%. For markets, the main consequence was that the chance of a July rate hike was immediately priced out, with the probability down from 43% on Monday to just 17% by last nightâs close. And that effect was clear further out the curve, as the chance of a hike by September also fell back to 66%, signaling a growing chance that the Fed might remain on hold for some months to come. Moreover, that led to a big decline for Treasury yields too, with the 10yr yield (-3.4bps) down to 4.59% by the close. The 10yr Treasury yield traded low as 4.521% post-CPI but it then recovered somewhat, in part as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh continued to strike a tough note on inflation as he delivered his first testimony as Chair before the House Financial Services Committee. Warsh refrained from any direct policy guidance, while noting that yesterdayâs softer CPI print did not mean âmission accomplishedâ. He also said that âmembers of our Committee have no tolerance for persistently elevated inflationâ and argued that if the Fed âget policy rightâand we willâthe inflation surge of the last five years will be a thing of the past.â In all, the new Chair looked to cement inflation-fighting credibility. But he was fortunate to be making these tough remarks in a day of soft CPI, with the inflation data easing the pressure for any immediate policy tightening.  Yet even as CPI surprised on the downside, oil prices continued to move higher, with Brent crude up another +1.72% yesterday to $84.73/bbl, taking its 2-day gain since the weekend to +11.47%. Nevertheless, that was actually well beneath the intraday peak above $87/bbl, with a big pullback after President Trump said that the proposal for a 20% fee in the Strait of Hormuz would be replaced by âTrade and Investment Deals that the various Gulf States will be making into the United States.â Meanwhile, the US military announced that it had resumed its naval blockade of Iran overnight, with Iranian media reporting an exchange of fire in the Strait of Hormuz. Overnight, Brent is +1.19% higher, trading at 85.74/bbl as we go to print.  But for the most part, there were signs that investors were still looking through the latest oil price spike. Brent is well below its peak from earlier in the year, having spent around two months above $100/bbl. And as Henry pointed out yesterday (link here), earlier in the year it took Brent at $110/bbl before we saw meaningful vulnerabilities for equities and credit. And if we look back at the 2022 shock as well, it was a similar real-terms threshold for Brent (above $110/bbl in todayâs prices) that started to cause meaningful stress, which weâre still some way from right now. For equities, yesterday was another eventful session as earnings season started to get going. At the headline level, the S&P 500 (+0.38%) did well thanks to the downside CPI print and the dovish rates repricing. But this included some big moves under the surface, with IBM (-25.21%) posting its biggest daily decline in available Bloomberg data back to 1968, after they missed analyst estimates. It's another example of the huge ongoing tech disruption. Other software stocks also underperformed, including ServiceNow (-5.76%) and Adobe (-4.30%). Despite this, the information technology sector (+1.25%) was the best performer in the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ was up +0.90% amid gains for chipmakers that pushed the Philly semiconductor index +2.54% higher. So differentiation within the tech sector continues to be an ongoing theme, and one that supported the headline indices yesterday even as the equal-weighted S&P 500 slipped (-0.38%). There were also some big earnings advances as well, with Goldman Sachs (+9.00%) posting its best day since Trump announced the 90-day tariff extension last year, which came after their own earnings beat expectations. There were also sizeable gains for JPMorgan (+2.50%) and Bank of America (+1.88%) after their results, which helped the KBW Bank index to a +1.05% gain. This morning S&P (+0.20%) and Nasdaq (+0.74%) futures continue to rally.  Asian equity markets are also higher with the KOSPI (+7.70%) back leading the gains. Elsewhere, the Nikkei (+1.14%) and the Hang Seng (+1.46%) are also posting solid advances, while mainland Chinese equities remain subdued, with the CSI 300 (+0.04%) and Shanghai Composite (-0.08%) after Q2 GDP "only" expanded by 4.3% year-on-year, falling short of 4.5% expectations and slowing notably from the previous quarter (5%). As a result, first-half growth came in at 4.7%. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP rose 0.9%, marking the slowest pace of expansion in more than two years. Additional June data presented a mixed picture of momentum. Industrial production increased 5.3% year-on-year, surpassing expectations of 4.6% and accelerating from 4.5% in May, highlighting continued strength in the industrial sector. In contrast, fixed-asset investment fell -5.7% in the first half of the year from a year earlier, a steeper decline than expected and a deterioration from the -4.1% drop recorded over the JanuaryâMay period. Retail sales rose 1.0% year-on-year in June, outperforming expectations for a slight contraction, although consumer spending remained relatively subdued. Meanwhile, Chinaâs property market continued to weaken, with new home prices declining -0.15% month-on-month in June. While this represented a modest improvement from Mayâs -0.20% decline, persistent softness in housing demand across most regions continued to outweigh isolated signs of stabilization in major cities. Earlier in Europe, markets generally put in a decent performance yesterday, with the STOXX 600 (+0.17%) reaching a one-week high, alongside modest gains for the FTSE 100 (+0.30%), the DAX (+0.13%) and the CAC 40 (+0.03%). For sovereign bonds there was a weaker performance however, with yields on 10yr bunds (+0.6bps), OATs (+0.8bps) and BTPs (+1.1bps) all moving higher. But as with the oil price, that was actually a decent pullback from earlier in the session, when the 10yr bund yield had been up over +3bps on the day.  Looking at the day ahead, weâll hear from Fed Chair Warsh again, whoâs appearing before the Senate Banking Committee. Otherwise, central bank speakers include the Fedâs Williams, Cook and Musalem, the ECBâs Panetta and Nagel, and the BoEâs Pill. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada will announce their latest policy decision, and the Fed will release their Beige Book. Data releases include US PPI inflation for June, and the Empire State manufacturing survey for July. Finally, todayâs earnings releases include Morgan Stanley, BlackRock, United Airlines, and Johnson & Johnson. Tyler Durden Wed, 07/15/2026 - 08:28