Live ingestion is paused. We’re migrating our backend to a new database. The archive is up to date through Sep 24, 2026 (29 days ago). Fresh events will resume once the migration finishes — historical analysis is fully available.
Conflict Events Archive
16,011 documented events · latest Sep 24, 2026 — chronological archive with full summaries and multi-source verification.
Netanyahu at UNGA over the years
Benjamin Netanyahu says there will be surprises in his UN General Assembly address.
United Cultures Forum in St. Petersburg gathers representatives of 70 countries
According to Olga Lyubimova, the forum traditionally brings together cultural figures, experts, heads of cultural institutions, filmmakers, opinion leaders, government officials and representatives of international organizations from the CIS, Asia, Africa, the Middle East and Latin America
The Russian Military Campaign Against Europe: Current Objectives and Efforts
Introduction Russia is operating within a war framework against Europe while Europe continues to function within a peace framework. It does not follow that a full-scale…
Futures Tumble As Yields Hit Multi-Decade Highs, Oil Surges
Futures Tumble As Yields Hit Multi-Decade Highs, Oil Surges Futures are lower with Tech underperforming as part of a global risk-off tone with few areas of safety, driven by a global bond rout that has sent yields across the globe to levels not seen in a generation. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are 0.6% lower with Nasdaq futures sliding 1.0% and reflecting the fallout from Wednesday’s barrage of inflationary signals, which sent stocks in Asia and Europe lower. In premarket trading, semis and memory are lagging the broader tech tape for the 2nd day, with software seeing slight outperformance, but still lower. Defensives and energy are leading cyclicals. The yield curve is bear steepening with the back-end yields making multi-year highs; pushing the 10Y yield to 5.14% and the 30Y yield to the highest since 2004. This follows Wednesday’s US data and auction-led selling in US paper with an ascent in energy prices today driving the moves further. The rout in bonds swept into Asia, with yields in Japan, Australia and New Zealand climbing by more than 10 basis points on Thursday. The USD remains bid and DXY is less than 40bp from its 52-wk high. In commodities, energy and ags resume their leadership as the market reduces its optimism for an imminent solution in the MidEast; metals are weaker with precious lagging ase. The Trump-Xi meeting will be one to watch on today's calendar, following US Treasury Secretary Bessent's announcement of a two-month extension to the trade truce which appears to have disappointed markets as it was less than what China expected. US economic data slate includes 2Q current account balance and weekly jobless claims (8:30 a.m.), August new home sales (10 a.m.) and September Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity (11 a.m.) In premarket trading Magnificent Seven: Alphabet (GOOGL) -0.7%, Amazon (AMZN) -0.9%, Apple (AAPL) unchanged, Microsoft (MSFT) -0.6%, Tesla (TSLA) -1%, Nvidia (NVDA) -1.1%, Meta Platforms (META) -2% Darden (DRI) falls 5% after the restaurant-chain operator posted first quarter sales that disappointed. Dropbox (DBX) declines 5% after Citi downgraded the file management software company to sell, writing that recent optimism about its AI strategy “derives too much success too early.” Etsy Inc. (ETSY) slips 2% after Arete downgraded the online retail platform to neutral, citing concerns over its valuation and growth sustainability. Everpure (P) jumps 7% after the data-storage company forecast revenue for 2028 that exceeded the average analyst estimate. MGM Resorts International (MGM) is down 9% after Barry Diller’s People Inc. dropped plans to acquire the rest of the casino giant. Stitch Fix (SFIX) falls 19% after the online personal styling platform forecast a much weaker full-year 2027 Ebitda that analysts expected. Viking Therapeutics (VKTX), which had surged 36% Tuesday on experimental weight-loss drug results, is down 12% after offering $200 million in common shares and another $200 million in convertible notes to help fund clinical development. In other corporate news, a consortium backed by BlackRock and IFM are said to be closing in on $25 billion deal to buy Stack Infrastructure’s Asia Pacific data centers. Morgan Stanley is working to contain the damage from a leaked deal list after one of its top bankers accidentally sent an email to some clients containing a list of deals the firm was working on and monitoring. Wednesday’s strong economic data, a weak debt auction, and mounting concerns over diesel prices and policy is rattling both Wall Street and Main Street, driving yields across most maturities to the highest in almost two decades. This has pushed inflation anxiety back to being front and center for investors, with concerns about Brent above $100 and an overheating US economy piling fresh pressure on bond markets. That’s taken the shine away from stocks, pulling the Nasdaq 100 down from a record high. "Higher bond yields are becoming a more meaningful headwind for equities,” said Simon Wiersma at ING Bank. “Middle East de-escalation could take some pressure off bond markets, but the bigger story is the structural rise in global borrowing needs.” Futures reflect the fallout from Wednesday’s barrage of inflationary signals. According to BBG, Traders are unlikely to commit fresh capital before tonight’s Trump-Xi summit, despite Bessent saying the US and China have extended their trade truce. Oil’s latest leg higher came after an Iranian official warned Tehran may expand the war to the Indian Ocean if the US or Israel attacks again. “Now that the war has expanded from the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea, it may, in the next phase of a potential conflict, widen further,” Iran’s semi-official Fars cited Yahya Rahim Safavi, who’s also a senior member of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, as saying. “Oil prices remain the key driver overall,” said Nadege Dufosse, head of multi-asset at Candriam. “Investors are flying blind as it’s impossible to guess which way the talks between Iran and the US will go.” Energy Secretary Chris Wright told oil industry leaders to brace for possible US curbs on diesel exports amid an intensifying debate within the Trump administration over that approach. A potential diesel export ban would carry “significant implications” and even have the counterintuitive effect of an increase in gasoline prices if US refiners cut runs, notes Morgan Stanley. Meanwhile, as extensively noted here, the entwined mix of AI and inflation is causing angst. Debt pressures return with Amazon, Alphabet CDSs topping the year’s highs, and Nvidia insurance costing more amid circular financing concerns. “Before the year draws to a close, a choice is likely to be needed between inflation and the debt-financed capital expenditure boom,” notes Jonestrading Chief Strategist Mike O’Rourke. “Main Street has paid the price for five-plus years and does not have much left to give,” O’Rourke adds. Hyper CDS new all time wides, led by ORCL, SPCX, NVDA and META pic.twitter.com/gr7OcinLUl — zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 23, 2026 Fresh warnings about price pressures were raised at two rate decisions in Europe. The Swiss National Bank lifted its inflation forecast as it dialed down its threat of intervention to support the franc. Norges Bank increased borrowing costs for a second time this year and said it was primed to hike again. For the Fed, swaps fully reflect three quarter-point hikes over the next year, with significant hedging for a fourth. “A resolution in the Middle East would certainly bring some relief, particularly to European rates given the energy channel, but in the US the story goes beyond oil at this stage,” said Alessandro Gabellone at Bank Degroof Petercam. “Inflation has been above target for years, while fiscal imbalances and rising interest costs are increasingly part of the discussion around long-term yields,” he said. Traders will follow the summit between Trump and China’s Xi Jinping later today at a time when tensions between the world’s two biggest economies persist over rare earths, technology curbs and Taiwan. “Super Intelligence” would be a big topic of discussion, Trump said on social media. “I want to leave it exactly where it is. That is China’s position also.” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that a trade agreement struck by the leaders last year will now run an additional two months until Jan. 10, clearing the way for two more meetings in the coming months at summits in Shenzhen and Miami. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 is down 0.4% with the average yield rising to levels not seen in almost two decades. Tech and autos are the worst performers. Energy gains. Here are some of the biggest movers on Thursday: Mitchells & Butlers shares rise as much as 3.9% after the pub chain reported a pick-up in like-for-like growth in the final quarter, aided by a strong showing over the August bank holiday weekend. Motor Oil Hellas shares rise as much as 1.9% after Goldman Sachs upped its price target on the Greek refiner, predicting it to benefit from higher diesel crack spreads. BioGaia gains as much as 5.1% after Danske Bank reiterated its buy rating and raised its price target on the Swedish health additives company, seeing a good risk/reward opportunity going into the company’s third-quarter report, due on Oct. 22. Raspberry Pi rises 23% after first-half revenue at the micro-computer maker jumped 90% to $256.9 million. OVS shares rose as much as 4% in Milan trading after the Italian fashion retailer’s adjusted net sales grew 11% year on year. H&M shares fall as much as 3.7% after US tariff refunds were largely credited for driving a beat in third-quarter profits at the Swedish fast-fashion retailer. Tryg shares fall as much as 3.5% after Danske Bank downgraded the Danish insurance firm to hold from buy, predicting headwinds from inflation and rising interest rates. Verbio declines as much as 6.9% as Jefferies says that despite a solid finish to the year, the biodiesel and bioethanol fuel producer’s new FY26/27 Ebitda guidance is below consensus. Vistry shares drop as much as 11% after the housebuilder reported weak interim results and outlined the findings from the review conducted by its CEO. Asian stocks declined for a second day amid renewed pressure from elevated oil prices and US bond yields. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 0.9%, with China the worst performer in the region. Indian equities dropped the most in over two months amid a selloff in the heavyweight financial sector after the nation’s insurance regulator proposed changes that include capping commissions. Japanese stocks were mixed as markets reopened following a three-day holiday. South Korea was shut for a holiday. . In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index continues to carve out fresh multi-month highs, adding 0.2%. The Norwegian Krone leads G10 FX, whilst the Swiss Franc lags after respective rate decisions. USD/JPY has eclipsed its 200DMA for the first time since early September. In rates, treasuries are mixed in early US session with the yield curve steeper around a little-changed 7-year sector. Front-end tenors unwind some of Wednesday’s steep losses while long-end has added to them, lifting 30-year yield to 5.44%, highest since 2004. 10-year reached 5.15%, highest since 2007. US 2-year yields are lower by around 3bp with long-end yields higher by around 3bp, close to cheapest levels of the day, steepening 2s10s and 5s30s curves by 4bp-5bp. 10-year yield is little changed near 5.125%, with bunds in the sector lagging by 1bp and gilts outperforming by 2bp. European rates are a touch higher with the French-German 10-year spread widening to about 111bps. Higher energy costs have hit sentiment in Europe. $44 billion 7-year note auction at 1 p.m. New York time follows poor demand for Wednesday’s 5-year note sale, which tailed by more than 3bp. WI 7-year yield near 5.055% is ~54bp cheaper than last month’s, which stopped on the screws. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far. Five borrowers priced a combined $5.2b Wednesday, paying about 6bp in new issue concessions on deals that were 1.9 times covered. Weekly volume stands near $33b, about $6.5b short of the $40b projected by dealers. Focal points of US session include weekly jobless claims data and 7-year note auction. In commodities, WTI crude oil futures are up around 1.4%, off session highs, extending Wednesday’s rally after an IRGC official threatened to expand the war in the Middle East into the Indian Ocean.Brent is higher by 2.5% and up nearly 10% from the week-to-date low as hopes of a US-Iran deal fade and rhetoric remains hostile. Brent gained after US Energy Secretary Chris Wright told oil industry leaders to brace for possible US curbs on diesel exports amid an intensifying debate within the Trump administration over such a move. The firmer greenback is dragging precious metals lower with spot gold down 0.6%. Bitcoin declines nearly 1%. US economic data slate includes 2Q current account balance and weekly jobless claims (8:30 a.m.), August new home sales (10 a.m.) and September Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity (11 a.m.) Fed speaker slate includes Richmond’s Barkin (8:30 a.m.), Cleveland’s Hammack (8:50 a.m.) and Philadelphia’s Paulson (10:10 a.m.). New York President John Williams said in a London event Thursday that more work needs to be done to lower US inflation. Market Snapshot Top Overnight News The US 30-year yield climbed to its highest level since 2004 as comments from Iran further stoked oil-driven inflation fears and fiscal concerns. Equity futures fell. BBG Brent surged to around $106 after a military adviser to Iran’s supreme leader said Tehran may expand the war to the Indian Ocean if the US or Israel attacks again, further undercutting hopes of a deal. BBG Saudi Arabia has sold almost 100 million barrels of oil to Asian buyers since the middle of last week, helping to avert a looming supply crunch in the region. The crude will be sent via the Strait of Hormuz to buyers including Chinese state-run and independent refiners, as well as processors in India, Japan and South Korea. BBG President Donald Trump’s strong rapport with Xi Jinping is set to be on display in Washington this week as the Chinese leader makes his first U.S. state visit in more than a decade. But below the surface-level pageantry at the White House, little is likely to be resolved as the world’s two biggest economies continue to spar over trade, Taiwan, AI and more. NBC US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced on Wednesday that Washington and Beijing have agreed to extend the trade agreement reached in South Korea for just two months, as Chinese President Xi Jinping arrives in Washington for a state visit. SCMP Large cargo ships have recently paid up to $5 million to pass through the Panama Canal, as the global shipping industry reacts to trade disruptions from the Iran war and extreme weather patterns in the Western Hemisphere. WSJ The AI build-out is on track to become the biggest economic bet in U.S. history, dwarfing the investments made to fund other huge U.S. infrastructure projects such as the railroads, the highway system and the plumbing for the internet. WSJ AI firms are rushing to discount their products as some enterprises express caution about paying full price for all the new tools. The Information Sellers are feeling the strain of US mortgage rates around 7%. Nearly one in five homes for sale had a price cut in August, while 45% of sales involved a seller concession, according to Redfin data. BBG Mark Carney said he had seriously considered the “extreme tail risk” of a US invasion when asked about the possibility in a NYT interview. BBG A US judge issued an order blocking the Trump administration’s White House ban on CNN, MS NOW and Politico. US Senate Majority Leader Thune believes President Trump is open to implementing AI guardrails despite his public defiance on the issue: Axios. An industry group representing US tech companies is reportedly pushing the US administration to withdraw its proposal to charge for H-1B visas: WSJ. BofA Total Card Spending (w/e Sep 19th) +6.9% Y/Y (prev. +5.8% W/W); surging gas prices have opened up a gap in ex-gas spending between higher and lower income households. A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk APAC stocks were mostly pressured following on from the declines in global peers alongside the recent bond turmoil and jump in yields, owing to several factors including strong US data, hawkish Fed rhetoric and mixed reports regarding a US diesel export ban. ASX 200 retreated with the declines led by weakness in miners, real estate and materials, while sentiment was not helped by mixed jobs data including an unexpected rise in the Unemployment Rate to a five-year high. Nikkei 225 outperformed after Japanese participants returned from the long weekend and with tech names playing catch-up to the recent AI-related momentum. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp retreated despite early optimism from President Xi's state visit to the US, while a two-month extension to the US-China trade truce until January 10th also failed to spur risk appetite. Top Asian News PBoC will offer lenders a record amount of up to CNY 1tln in overnight funds each day over the upcoming holiday period, according to Bloomberg. PBoC to comprehensively use and timely adjust monetary policy tools to keep liquidity ample; to step up counter cyclical adjustments. Japan's Finance Ministry is to consider cutting issuances in liquidity-enhancement auctions for medium-term JGBs, according to sources. Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said the principles on forex established since the joint US-Japan intervention remain in effect, while she won't comment on specific FX levels. Japan reportedly plans to finance economic security spending mainly through "bridging bonds", reducing the need for the issuance of deficit bonds, Nikkei reported citing sources. European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.3%) opened entirely in the red and has come under a fresh leg of pressure in recent trade amid the upside across the energy space. The source of the move came amid comments by the Senior adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader Major General Safavi, saying the US conflict could expand further into the Indian Ocean. Sectors highlight the negative bias. Energy, Food, Beverages & Tobacco and Optimised Personal Care are the only sectors in the green. Leading the downside is Tech, followed by Autos and Financial Services. Top European News The UK Treasury is open to smaller fiscal headroom and Chancellor Healey may accept a smaller fiscal buffer to reduce tax rises in next month’s Budget, according to FT. German Ifo Expectations (Sep) 90.4 vs. Exp. 89.3 (Prev. 89.1). German Ifo Current Conditions (Sep) 89.5 vs. Exp. 89 (Prev. 88.5). German Ifo Business Climate (Sep) 89.9 vs. Exp. 89 (Prev. 88.8). French Business Confidence (Sep) 101 vs. Exp. 102 (Prev. 101). French Consumer Confidence (Sep) 86 vs. Exp. 85 (Prev. 86). Central Banks Norges Bank hiked rates by 25bps to 4.50%. Expectations heading into the announcement were split. The Bank noted that inflation has been above target for several years, and that by raising the rate, it will help reduce inflation and that the policy rate will be elevated for a time. The Committee is prepared to raise the policy rate further if warranted by the inflation outlook. The decision was backed by continued elevated inflation metrics, with the Bank alert to upward risks to the inflation outlook; it stated that "Inflation may then become stickier and harder to bring down again". Governor Bache suggested that the inflation outlook has not materially changed, as such, stated that the Bank is prepared to deliver further rate hikes to bring inflation down to target. This is reflected in the rate path projection, which does not point to further tightening later this year, but will continue into Q1/Q2'27. The Riksbank left rates unchanged at 1.75%, as expected. With the commentary, and particularly the forecasts, a hawkish bias can be seen with the language being that "it is expected that the increases to the policy rate will begin this year", while the forecasts imply a hike around end-2026/start-2027 and then another one in the Q2/Q3-2026 period, and then thereafter there is some optionality of another hike by Q3-2028, a marked hawkish tilt vs the June projections. Albeit, this is caveated by the assessment that Q2 GDP strength was somewhat due to temporary factors, though the general commentary remains constructive. Overall, the strengthening of the SEK highlighted the overall hawkish tone. The SNB left rates unchanged at 0%, as expected. The main update was the tweak to the FX language, which now shows "...willing to be active in the foreign exchange market..." from the June line of "If necessary, the SNB has an increased willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market", omitting the "increased" framing. In terms of the Bank's inflation forecast, they were lifted across 2026, 27 and 28, primarily due to higher energy prices. They also noted that the recent uptick in inflation was attributed to a rise in goods inflation, driven by higher prices for oil products. In an immediate reaction, the CHF weakened given the aforementioned change to the intervention language. Fed's Williams (voter, Neutral) said the big challenge is on inflation and need to get it back to target in a timely manner while stating that it is reasonable to see another rate hike by year-end. He said short-run inflation expectations have been more encouraging, though the longer term they have not. On the economy, Williams said it has been remarkably resilient and downside risk to achieving maximum employment have receded. BoE's Lombardelli said policy is increasingly likely to need to tighten if elevated energy prices persist. On second-round effects, she said the absence of evidence is something but not much, and that it is likely still too early to see evidence in the data. On policy, Lombardelli described it as restrictive and that it is increasingly likely to need to tighten if elevated energy prices persist, absent clear evidence of disinflation or weaker activity. BoE's Dhingra said most of the financial conditions have done a lot of tightening work already in the UK and is encouraged on what pricing is doing. Dhingra added that the labour market looks pretty weak, while highlighting that winter energy prices will be critical for second round effects. ECB’s Kocher said the ECB must prevent excessively high inflation from becoming entrenched and that the Eurozone economy remains fragile. Kocher added that there has been signs of somewhat more Eurozone momentum since summer. ECB's Schnabel said the energy shock is much more persistent than thought. FX G10s are mostly lower against the USD, albeit only marginally. The EUR holds afloat, joined by the Kiwi, Loonie and GBP, whilst the CHF underperforms a touch. DXY holds within a 101.00 to 101.23 range. The Dollar traded steady throughout overnight and early-European trade, but then moved higher alongside a bout of strength in the energy complex. This came after an IRGC official noted that the “war could expand” to the Indian Ocean or Bab el Mandeb Strait if the US decides to go to war again. More generally, crude benchmarks will be digesting reports that the US dismissed Iran's Hormuz offer during UN talks, saying Tehran does not control the Strait. Fed’s Williams spoke this morning, where he suggested it was reasonable to see another rate hike by year-end. Markets are pricing in a 38.4% chance of one 25bps hike by year-end, with a c. 50% chance of another this year. Policy announcements from the SNB, Riksbank and Norges Bank have led to some volatility in the respective currencies. Kicking off with SNB, the Bank opted to hold rates, lifted inflation projections and removed its “increased willingness” for intervention. As such, the CHF moved lower following the announcement. Over in Sweden, the SEK was initially choppy following the Bank’s decision to hold rates. But then gradually strengthened, as the Bank lifted its rate path forecasts to imply a hike towards the end of this year/start of next year. Elsewhere, the only hike today was delivered by Norges Bank. It lifted its Key Policy rate by 25bps to 4.50%, and reiterated its tightening bias. EUR/NOK knee-jerked lower as traders unwound their bets of a hold, before paring around half of that move. Fixed Income The very modest bearish action at the start of the morning has given way to downside of c. 40 ticks in Bunds. Amidst a combination of factors, namely: energy upside on Iranian commentary, hawkish central banks, strong German Ifo & trade/tariff concern ahead of the US-China meeting, and also from Germany via the VDA. Unsurprisingly, the bulk of the move was on the Iranian adviser Safavi intimating that the “scope of the war may expand…”, to include the Indian Ocean and other regions. An update that, over the course of around one hour, lifted Brent by over USD 2.00/bbl and pushed the US 30yr yield to its highest in over 20 years. Bunds hit a 119.87 trough, nine ticks above Wednesday’s contract low. As mentioned, much of the focus has been on yield action, with upside seen across curves globally and a slightly steepening bias seen. For USTs, no real move to Fed’s Williams, though he did note that pricing for another hike by end-2026 is “reasonable”. As it stands, markets imply a 38% chance of one 25bps hike by year-end, and just over a 50% chance of two. At a 104-28 contract low with yields bid across the curve. Ahead, the focus remains on central banks with several speakers due, before the Trump-Xi meeting begins and the readout which is scheduled for just after 15:00BST commences. A meeting that is framed by recent remarks from Treasury Secretary Bessent that while the truce has been extended to January 2027, he does not know if a bigger deal can be done. Italy sells EUR 2.5bln vs Exp. 2.5-3bln 3.00% 2028 BTP: b/c 1.64x (prev. 1.58x), average yield 3.64% (prev. 3.02%). Commodities WTI Nov and Brent Dec futures started the European morning with only modest gains, but gradually picked up as the session progressed. The bullish bias potentially comes amidst the lack of US-Iran diplomatic progress and after an IRGC official noted that the “war could expand” to the Indian Ocean or Bab el Mandeb Strait if the US decides to go to war again. Focus also remains on the potential US diesel export ban, although the White House denied reports that the Trump administration is preparing a 90-day ban. Morgan Stanley warned that such a move, while not its base case, could have significant implications and potentially raise gasoline prices as barred diesel exports fill storage and force refiners to cut runs. The bank estimated refiners could need to reduce runs by around 2mln BPD, in turn cutting gasoline supply by roughly 650k BPD. WTI trades around USD 93.70/bbl within a USD 91.23-94.69/bbl range, while Brent trades above USD 100.00/bbl within a USD 97.09-100.94/bbl range. Dutch TTF is firmer, with the contract trading within a EUR 73.39-75.04/MWh range. The Trump-Xi meeting could provide some impact amid reports of potentially reducing or removing China’s 15% tariff on US LNG. Precious metals remain subdued following Wednesday’s surge in the USD and global yields, with hawkish Fed rhetoric and strong US data continuing to weigh on the complex. Spot gold trades towards the bottom of a USD 4,254-4,303/oz range, with the 100 DMA at USD 4,309/oz. Spot silver similarly trades around the lower end of a USD 63.52-64.55/oz range. Base metals are mixed/rangebound against a subdued risk backdrop, with copper also digesting news that BHP suspended operations at its Escondida mine in Chile following an accident. 3M LME copper resides in a USD 14,575.08-14,677.78/t range. Saudi Aramco CEO said that it is studying a "a fourth and a fifth route" for crude oil exports and noted that the Co. can restore disrupted operations within days. China’s NDRC raised retail fuel prices in the current bi-monthly cycle, effective September 25th, with gasoline prices up CNY 395/tonne and diesel prices up CNY 385/tonne. BHP (BHP AT) said operations at the Escondido mine in Chile were suspended following an accident. Trade/Tariffs US President Trump said it was a great greeting with Xi and that the entire tech and banking world will be at Thursday's dinner. Trump also stated that he had some great conversations with leaders at the UN General Assembly. Chinese President Xi said he looks forward to in-depth exchanges with US President Trump and will expand cooperation between the two countries in various areas, while he is confident the US trip will produce fruitful results. Xi also commented that China and the US must be allies, not adversaries, and he is confident China and the US can find the right path to coexist in a new era. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US-China trade truce was extended to January 10th, while he doesn't know if a bigger trade deal can be done with China and could just roll the current deal forward. Furthermore, Bessent said that presidents Trump and Xi are expected to meet four times this year and that China is doing well so far in meeting 2026 pledges. China's MOFCOM said they discussed AI with the US under the bilateral economic and trade consultation mechanism. Germany's VDA is reportedly endorsing new tariffs against China for the first time, according to Handelsblatt. India cut import duties on crude palm oil and soybean oil to 5% (prev. 10%). Geopolitics: Iran Senior adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader Major General Safavi said the scope of the war may expand to the Indian Ocean and other regions, if the US starts a new war. Israeli source said an additional round of strikes against Iran seems to be a matter of time, Al Hadath reported. The source added that Iran is intensifying the transfer and fortification of the Natanz nuclear project. Additionally, the source said Israel does not see a real chance of reaching an agreement between the US and Iran, and that the US wants to end the Iran war with a political agreement or a decisive attack that topples the regime. On further strikes, the Israeli source said they will strike Iranian nuclear facilities again if Iran crosses the red lines, with or without US involvement. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said they are getting sometimes up to 17mln oil barrels out of Hormuz and noted that probably 80-90% of Iran's external flights are shut down. Chinese Foreign Minister said the Strait of Hormuz conflict must be resolved through dialogue and calls on all parties to seek a peaceful solution, Al Arabiya reported. Pakistan's Foreign Minister told Iran's Foreign Minister that they must remain committed to dialogue and diplomacy. Iran's Foreign Ministry noted that Iran's Foreign Minister held a meeting with Pakistani counterpart at the UN General Assembly. UK Chancellor Healey said he spoke with US Treasury Secretary Bessent today about stepping up pressure on Iran and how to work together to drive growth in both nations. EU's Costa spoke to Iran's President Pezeshkian and urged Iran to resume its cooperation with the IAEA, while he also called for an end to Iran's strikes against its neighbours and a full restoration of freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. Initial reports noted two explosions in Bandar Abbas and one in Sirik, southern Iran, with the explosion in Sirik reportedly coming from near the coast, off to the sea. Geopolitics: Ukraine Russia's Kremlin said no decision yet has been made on a December summit between US President Trump and Russian President Putin and that discussing a possible agenda is premature. Waves of Russian missiles attacked Kyiv and more than a dozen heavy explosions were heard in 30 minutes, according to an FT reporter. US Event Calendar 5:00 am: Aug F Building Permits, prior 1394k 8:30 am: 2Q Current Account Balance, est. -257.4b, prior -226.83b 8:30 am: Sep 19 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 200k, prior 196k 8:30 am: Sep 12 Continuing Claims, est. 1740k, prior 1730k 10:00 am: Aug New Home Sales, est. 615.55k, prior 607k Central Bank Speakers 4:10 am: Fed’s Williams Speaks During Moderated Discussion 8:30 am: Fed’s Barkin In Fireside Chat With Economic Club of Washington 8:50 am: Fed’s Hammack Delivers Opening Remarks at Inflation Conference 10:10 am: United States Fed’s Paulson Speaks At Fintech Conference DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap As we go to press, the main story is still the huge global bond selloff, with yesterday seeing the biggest jump in the 10yr Treasury yield (+15.2bps) since the market turmoil around Liberation Day in April 2025. The main driver was a strong batch of PMIs, along with a rebound in oil prices, which both led to mounting speculation about faster rate hikes. Indeed, futures this morning are pricing a 71% chance of a Fed rate hike at the next meeting in October. So that drove a bunch of records, and we even saw the 5yr Treasury yield (+16.7bps) rise above 5% for the first time since 2007. In addition, there were growing signs of stress in Europe, where the Franco-German 10yr spread (+6.2bps) rose to 110bps by the close, marking its highest level since the Euro crisis in 2012. So it was a rough day all round, and risk assets came under fresh pressure, with the S&P 500 (-0.75%) posting its biggest decline in a month, with futures down another -0.21% this morning. Those moves had several catalysts, but the biggest were the US flash PMI numbers, where the composite PMI unexpectedly hit a 5-year high of 58.4 in September (vs. 55.3 expected). So that played into the narrative of resilient growth, which in turn would enable the Fed to keep hiking rates to deal with inflation. And significantly, this was part of a global theme, as we found out earlier that the Eurozone composite PMI hit a 3-year high of 53.1 (vs. 51.7 expected). So if anything, the initial signal from the PMIs suggested that growth was accelerating in September across many of the world’s biggest economies. That positive data drove the hawkish repricing, but it got a further boost thanks to a fresh rebound in oil prices. Indeed, Brent crude (+3.86%) ended a run of 5 consecutive declines yesterday, closing back up at $103.08/bbl. That came amidst growing doubts about the chance of a US-Iran deal, despite the talks at the UN this week. For instance, a spokesman for Iran’s foreign ministry said that Iran had presented a list of conditions to the US for restarting negotiations via Qatari mediation. That included the US accepting a shipping route agreed by Oman and Iran, along with an end to the naval blockade and the release of Iran’s frozen assets. And Iran’s President Pezeshkian struck a defiant tone, saying that Iran would not allow freedom of navigation through Hormuz while the US blockade and sanctions remain in place. So for investors, the sense was that the two sides were still far apart, and the 12-month Brent future (+0.42%) hit a 3-month high of $80.96/bbl by the close. So it was clear that investors were still expecting a protracted period of higher oil prices. Collectively, that strong data and the oil rebound led to growing speculation about faster rate hikes. But interestingly, this fits into the usual pattern of recent cycles, where investors have tended to underestimate the scale of hikes at the outset, before adjusting in a hawkish direction. We explored this pattern on Monday (link here), where we pointed out several reasons that leant in the direction of faster hikes. For instance, much as inflation is lower than in the 2022 cycle, broader financial conditions are much more accommodative today. Moreover, another historical pattern is that central banks tend to correct for the last crisis, and in 2021-22 they faced criticism for not reacting to inflation fast enough, so we’re already seeing a more hawkish reaction function this time. And looking forward, the latest uptick in commodity prices hasn’t filtered through to the inflation numbers yet either. This hawkish repricing was clear over the last 24 hours, and when it came to the Fed, market pricing for an October hike rose from 53% on Tuesday, to 69% by last night’s close. Similarly for the ECB, the chance of an October hike rose from 48% on Tuesday to 66% by the close. So in other words, there was a mounting sense that central banks would need to accelerate the hiking cycle, and that hikes at every other meeting might not be enough to get inflation back to target again. Looking beyond the next meeting as well, market pricing also shifted hawkishly. So for year-end, investors are now pricing in 37bps of Fed hikes, implying a near-even chance that they’ll deliver two more hikes before the year is out, which is the most hawkish pricing for December 2026 so far. That backdrop led to another huge bond selloff yesterday, with yields seeing big rises across the board. That was particularly clear for US Treasuries, where the 10yr yield (+15.2bps) saw its biggest daily jump since the market turmoil after Liberation Day in April 2025, taking it up to a post-2007 high of 5.11%. The moves were clear across the curve as well, with the 2yr yield (+14.2bps) jumping to its highest since May 2024, at 4.90%, whilst the 30yr yield (+9.9bps) hit a post-2007 high of 5.40%. A weak 5yr auction also didn’t help matters, with yields up to their intraday highs after $70bn of notes were sold at 5.03%, +3.1bps above the pre-sale yield. And in turn, the rise in US yields saw the dollar index (+0.49%) rise to its highest since July, while gold (-1.68%) had its biggest decline in two weeks. That selloff was echoed in Europe, where the energy price gains and the strong PMIs drove a hawkish repricing as well. So that pushed bond yields up to fresh multi-year highs, with the 10yr bund yield (+9.2bps) at a post-2009 high of 3.55%, whilst the 10yr OAT yield (+15.4bps) hit a post-2008 high of 4.66%. Notably as well, it also pushed the Franco-German 10yr spread up to 110.4bps, which was a level last seen in July 2012, a few weeks before Mario Draghi delivered his famous “whatever it takes” speech that was a key turning point in resolving the crisis. All that put a lot of pressure on equities, even though the growth data surprised on the upside. So the S&P 500 (-0.75%) posted its biggest decline in a month, with all the major sector groups apart from energy (+1.04%) losing ground. The NASDAQ (-1.13%) and the small-cap Russell 2000 (-1.77%) saw even larger falls. Meanwhile in Europe, the STOXX 600 (-0.44%) also saw a pullback, alongside declines for the DAX (-0.66%) and the CAC 40 (-0.39%) as well. Overnight in Asia, the bond selloff has continued, with Japan’s 2yr yield (+4.8bps) up to a post-1995 high of 1.88%, whilst the 10yr yield (+11.1bps) is up to its highest since 1996, at 3.07%. And that’s been echoed in other countries, with Australia’s 10yr yield (+10.4bps) up to 5.32%, whilst New Zealand’s 10yr yield (+14.1bps) is up to 5.04%, the highest since November 2023. So equities have also struggled, with losses for the Hang Seng (-0.52%), the CSI 300 (-1.29%), the Shanghai Comp (-0.93%) and the S&P/ASX 200 (-0.80%). The main exception has been the Nikkei (+0.94%) although that reflects a catch-up after the index has been closed for the previous three days. Meanwhile in South Korea, markets are closed for a public holiday. Looking forward, a key event today will be the summit between Presidents Trump and Xi. From a market standpoint, the main news was US Treasury Secretary Bessent saying they’d agreed to extend last year’s trade truce by two months, which will now keep tariffs lower until January 10. This extension was shorter than had been floated by US officials beforehand, but does offer more time to potentially reach a longer deal. Finally, as oil prices were rising, another energy story yesterday was around whether the US might restrict diesel exports. Trump said on Tuesday that he was considering a possible export ban, and US diesel prices then slumped yesterday after Politico reported that the US was preparing a plan for a 90-day export ban. However, Reuters then reported a White House official who said this wasn’t accurate, while US Energy Secretary Wright said that “a full blanket ban or zero exports of diesel” are not being discussed. However, he did say that the administration was working with refiners to voluntarily curb exports of diesel. So despite the rises in crude, US wholesale diesel prices settled -3.35% lower after trading as low as -7.45% intra-day. Looking at the day ahead now, and US data releases include the weekly initial jobless claims, new home sales for August, and the Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing index for September. Then in Europe, we’ll also get the Ifo’s business climate indicator from Germany for September. Otherwise from central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Williams, Barkin, Hammack and Paulson, the ECB’s Schnabel and Lane, and the BoE’s Dhingra, Breeden and Lombardelli. The ECB will also publish their Economic Bulletin. Tyler Durden Thu, 09/24/2026 - 08:46
Day three of the UN General Assembly: Netanyahu delivers speech in New York while Abbas addresses members via video
Day three of the UN General Assembly: Netanyahu delivers speech in New York while Abbas addresses members via video (machine-translated headline from a Arabic-language source)
Sending IAEA inspectors to Iran is risky due to US attacks — Russian envoy in Vienna
Mikhail Ulyanov criticized the draft resolution on Iran, describing it as "completely ill-conceived" and "useless"
Could the oil shock push fuel prices even higher?
From Hormuz to the Black Sea, pressure on main supply routes is testing the resilience of the global energy market.
Why is Iran threatening regional airports, and what could be the impact?
Tehran hints retaliation as Georgia and Azerbaijan suspend Iranian flights amid mounting US sanctions on airlines.
Yemeni forces say they repel Houthi attacks in Taiz as fighting rages
Government forces say dozens of Houthis killed in southwestern governorate during battles for strategic highlands.
Escobar: The Calm Before The Showdown
Escobar: The Calm Before The Showdown Authored by Pepe Escobar via LewRockwell.com, The only art that the Prince must totally master it's the art of war - Machiavelli The Supreme Warrior Wins Without Fighting -Sun Tzu This was supposed to be the calm before the storm. Where the Epstein Syndicate would schmooze the Global South gathered in New York for the - comatose - UN General Assembly and seduce them with assorted "gifts", wooing them away from the impending Great Debacle and deflecting attention from the breathtaking speed of the collapse of Pax Americana. Cut to Wednesday, when we have Day One of the UN General Assembly Debate, with Neo-Crassus/Neo-Caligula/Goldfinger/Psycho Toddler supposed to deliver a speech. On the same day, he meets with the Gulf petro-sheiks for what could become some sort of suicidal pact. And then on Friday, Xi Dada in person comes to the U.S. on an official state visit. (Invisible) sparks are guaranteed to fly. All that would guarantee that the nearly inevitable New Demented Offensive on Iran and the Axis of Resistance might be postponed for a few days. But then hysteria re-reigned all over again, as panicked imperial stakeholders were faced with some startling facts on the ground, from zero Saudi oil exports and to "burn, baby burn" at Riyadh airport. Cue to the thundering sound of scurrying bling bling cockroaches. They seem to realize that hitting Iran again, now, is beyond dangerous, as the escalation ladder will go totally out of control - complete with Tehran finishing off the scared-to-death petro-sheikhs. So the cockroaches did find out, the hard way, that whatever happens Iran is bound to become the oil hegemon of the Persian Gulf. Cue to Pakistan and Turkiye - the other two members of the dodgy as hell Mecca Defense Alliance - freaking out in tandem, promising to defend Saudi Arabia even physically. For context, cut to Ansarallah spokesman Mohammad Al-Bukhaiti: "By God, if Turkey or Pakistan get involved, we will strike them with an iron fist. And just as we are disciplining Saudi Arabia today, we will discipline them as well." That was the polite advice from the elder al-Bukhaiti. The younger, Hussain, a journalist, was way more heavy metal: if Pakistan attacks Yemen, Yemen will not allow any Pakistani commercial ship to pass through the Red Sea; will launch a direct attack on Pakistan; and will consider Pakistan a Zionist partner. How the House of Saud is going down It's now Escalation Ladder A-Go-Go. The Energy Shock'n Awe is at hand. All buffers are gone; the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR); the Saudi East-West pipeline (for at least a month, maybe more); and China's methodical, hefty cut on oil imports. What's left is the UAE's Fujairah - moving only 2 million barrels a day. But if the U.S. attacks the Axis of Resistance, that will also be gone in a flash. Saudi Arabia cannot export oil and/or gas. So there's only one way out to Clumsy Lone Decider MbS; to surrender. Accept Yemen's terms. And expect the bill to include the 3 southern provinces stolen by the Brits and given to the Saudis in 1934. No surrender means the very slim possibility of the House of Saud surviving at all. Alastair Crooke, in fine form, nailed it to perfection. The Ansarallah/Yemeni Armed Forces lightning-fast campaign had been planned for as long as 7 years. Sana'a takes a very long view. This represents total Yemen ownership of the process; but with an outcome completely aligned with Tehran. There's a stunning parallel with Afghanistan 5 years ago - a story I followed in detail. The then Ghani puppet government collapsed in only 10 days because of patient Pashtun tribal interconnection conducted under the aegis of Gen. Soleimani. Now it's the same process, involving tribal Arabian leaders. It's an easy sell. The mongrel "Saudi" state was built around an ultra-sectarian Wahhabi nucleus, a bunch of illiterate camel-herding Bedouins, with a single family monopolizing the money, political power and all decisions. Many of roughly 100 tribes will have no trouble to become part of a process of folding the Kingdom into what could be called the Iran-Ansarallah compound. They will take back their oil; Arabia then will no longer be reduced to an American replacement of Persian power; and that will be the end of the free lunch for U.S. oil companies. China cannot but approve this vision. The petro-sheiks have chosen their table Sana'a did send a clear message to the U.S. via Oman. Yemen would only attack Saudi shipping - and not American or international shipping. That stands as long as Washington does not attack Yemen. Yet if that happens, Yemen obliterates the American base in Djibouti, essential for surveillance of the whole Horn of Africa. The key question now is whether the U.S. - and the Mecca pact - really dumped Saudi Arabia. Or if this is just a realignment fog before a concerted attack - GCC included - on Ansarallah. If that happens, Tehran has made it crystal clear it will strike U.S. military and commercial assets all across the Gulf, especially in the UAE and Saudi, and all the way to Iraq. Major General Mohsen Rezaee, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council in Iran, and Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's personal representative, provided the context with a single sentence: "We invited them [GCC nations] to the Salalah meeting [in Oman]...and they reciprocated with a secret meeting in Germany with the U.S. Central Command and Israel." It's all here. Iran invited the GCC petro-sheiks to a common regional table. The GCC instead chose the Washington/Tel Aviv table. Rezaee has also outlined how Iran upgraded supersonic missiles from Mach 6 to Mach 10; expanded electronic warfare and air defenses; and is now able to hit U.S. vessels anywhere in the - distant - Indian Ocean. Then there's that ship-targeting missile that splits into 80 projectiles tested - successfully - on a U.S. aircraft carrier. The Pentagon is mum on the subject. Rezaee, in more ways than one, has gently advised the U.S. Navy to get out of Dodge - as in the Indian Ocean - before sparks fly again. Cue once again to the young al-Bukhaiti: "A major escalation by Saudi Arabia is expected in the coming day or days... It will be met with a surprise retaliatory response that will make Saudi Arabia and its allies forget that they lost Mocha and Bab al-Mandab." So the Epstein Syndicate may have planned for a solo op on Yemen, just to find out that Iran and Yemen come as a package. Respect Iran's terms. Or else. Tehran conveyed its new terms to the U.S. through Qatar, even as Rezaee continues to define "the respected Pakistani government" as a steady consultation partner. The terms include the release of frozen assets and the end of the Trump naval blockade. Rezaee said there are 7 conditions, but he disclosed only 6. The list did not include "removal of economic sanctions". The public first item is "an end to the war on all fronts." That is exactly what was written at the start of the dead cat MoU. The June memorandum of understanding already contained crude-export waivers and a no-new-sanctions clause. Then there's the Strait of Hormuz reciprocation. That is part of Tehran's bargaining structure. Rezaee said Iran is "a short step" from announcing a Hormuz management deal with Oman that may need regional endorsement. A Tasnim-sourced description calls the arrangement "a step towards Iran exercising sovereignty over the Strait". In parallel, Foreign Minister Araghchi told his counterpart and friend Wang Yi in Beijing that Iran "has reached a plan with Oman to open the Strait." Then Ghalibaf repeated on Sunday that the Strait of Hormuz stays closed until Iran's conditions are met. Washington's answer, on Sunday, was demented rhetoric - as usual. Neo-Crassus/Psycho Toddler told Fox News he is in "deciding mode". And then he came up with an intergallactic howler: he's deciding "if and when do I blow the entire nation up". No comments necessary. He has essentially three options. 1. Renewed strikes. 2. Let Iran "rot" economically (that's the plan for now). 3. A deal. In an access of common sense, he also said he would "probably be open" to meeting President Pezeshkian at the UN General Assembly. Iran's Armed Forces, for their part, claimed they have intel that Washington has decided "with the green light from certain regional countries" to resume action and threatened "continuous, effective and painful strikes." When it comes to the Big Picture, Pakistan insisted there is no military response under discussion regarding Yemen. Türkiye "does not want to enter the fray". Still, Pakistan's military spokesman has pledged to go "to any extent", and the Foreign Office confirmed "some deployments" under the Mecca Defense Alliance. Insiders in Islamabad swear this is only for show: Pakistan cannot afford to be dragged into a war against Ansarallah. The heart of the matter is that the Epstein Syndicate simply cannot afford not (italics mine) to make a move. Consider the dire circumstances: they already connot control currency collapse, food supply chain elimination and widespread lack of oil/diesel. They need massive diversionist tactics. Meanwhile, Yemen's revolutionary surge accelerates the timetable to the showdown. While Iran concentrates on ensuring a definitive neo-Crassus/Goldfinger/Psycho toddler mid-term debacle, in tandem with honing its new offensive doctrine: as in being ready to preemptively strike at any sign of U.S. rumblings. It's nearly impossible to draw reason out of an illogical geopolitical universe where nothing matters and the Hegemon is totally out of control. Yet we persist. We are all riders on the (coming) storm. Pepe Escobar is an independent geopolitical analyst and author. His latest book is Raging Twenties. He's been politically canceled from Facebook and Twitter. Follow him on Telegram. We publish a variety of perspectives. Nothing written here is to be construed as representing the views of ZeroHedge. Tyler Durden Thu, 09/24/2026 - 05:00
Netanyahu takes UN stage with one eye on Israel’s election
As criticism of Israel intensifies, Israeli PM Netanyahu heads to the UN with his own political future in focus.
In Red Sea Crisis, Somaliland Seizes Leverage For US Recognition
In Red Sea Crisis, Somaliland Seizes Leverage For US Recognition Authored by Dan M. Ford via Responsible Statecraft, The president of Somaliland took advantage of the geopolitical and global economic turmoil caused by the Iran War to visit Washington this week in an effort to advocate for American recognition of Somaliland and for the deepening of economic ties between the two. President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi, known as Irro, made a public appearance at the Hudson Institute on September 14, where he argued that his country's three-and-a-half decade run as a secure, self-governing actor warranted recognition from the United States. Irro also said that, although he's "not a geologist," experts tell him his country has "everything" the U.S. could want in terms of critical minerals, which he'd be happy to provide the U.S. in exchange for deeper relations. A self-proclaimed sovereign country widely considered to be part of Somalia by the international community, Somaliland has for decades struggled to gain recognition on the international stage. But Israel's unexpected decision in December 2025 to be the first government in the world to recognize Somaliland as an independent state has raised questions about which other countries might follow suit. Somaliland denies that recognition came as part of a quid-pro-quo arrangement, but, shortly after the recognition, it was reported that Somaliland will be forming a security partnership with Israel, potentially including offering the Israelis military access to its territory. If there was ever a moment for Somaliland officials to make the case for recognition, now is indeed the time. Somaliland sits in one of the world's most geostrategically significant locations. With roughly 530 miles of coastline along the Gulf of Aden - which connects to the Red Sea through the vitally important Bab el-Mandeb Strait - Somaliland is at the heart of a crucial shipping route and on the edge of the expansive battlefield of the Iran War. Somaliland's major port city of Berbera is located just across the Gulf from the Yemeni coast, putting Somaliland's major economic engine within striking distance of potential Houthi attacks. The Houthi rebels - an Iran-aligned militant group fighting the Yemeni government and its Saudi backers in Yemen's devastating civil war - have played a major role in expanding the footprint of the ongoing Iran War. The Houthis have repeatedly targeted ships traversing the Red Sea as well as energy and logistics infrastructure in Saudi Arabia. Their stunning gains along Yemen's southwest coast in recent weeks - including the capture of the major port city of Mocha, near Bab el-Mandeb - mean the Houthis are increasingly in control of the Yemeni coastline along the strait, which gives the group added leverage. Indeed, if a lasting peace deal remains elusive, Iran could aim to use the Houthis' position to effectively shut down shipping through Bab el-Mandeb, which is only about 18 miles wide at its narrowest point. This would essentially mirror the Iranian strategy on the Strait of Hormuz, which sits on the other side of the Arabian Peninsula. By shutting down shipping through both Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, the Iranians and their allies would essentially bring to a halt nearly all sea trade connecting the Middle East to the Indian Ocean, worsening the ongoing global supply shock, especially as it relates to energy. The greater the pain on the world's pocketbook, the greater the likelihood, the Iranians believe, that pressure will mount to a point where the United States and Israel have no choice but to negotiate an honest end to the war. Irro's argument for recognition is straightforward. Somaliland has been operating as a functional and relatively secure country since claiming independence from Somalia in 1991. It has its own military and police force, and has a coast guard that patrols its waters along the Gulf of Aden, defending against potential threats from pirates and other nefarious actors on the seas. In an appeal to traditional Western appreciation for democracy, Irro argues that Somaliland's ability to hold consistent (though often delayed) elections is another indicator of its ability to govern well. But the Hudson Institute appearance was unsteady. Irro, aged 70, giggled seemingly uncontrollably throughout, and struggled to articulate a vision for the broader region. At one point, he compared neighboring Sudan to Venezuela, saying - like the Latin American country - Sudan is "too far away" from Somaliland for him to provide an opinion on its civil war, despite the fact that the two are only about 460 miles apart. Cameron Hudson, a former U.S. intelligence official specializing in Africa, said on X that Irro "did himself and his country a major disservice by being unprepared or incapable of being able to respond convincingly to serious topics that will determine his country's future. It was like watching an African Biden." Last Tuesday, Irro held a breakfast with a bipartisan group of members of Congress from both chambers as well as a group of ambassadors. The president also met individually with several members of Congress, including Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.), Rep. John Rose (R-Tenn.) and Rep. John Moolenaar (R-Mich.), with whom he reportedly discussed a wide variety of issues pertaining to security, trade, and investment. In addition to meeting with American officials, Irro met with members of the Israeli embassy in Washington, including the country's ambassador. Ever since Trump took office, Somaliland has seen an opportunity to push for American recognition. Last year, the breakaway state offered the United States the opportunity to open up a military base along its Gulf coast in exchange for recognition, which the Trump administration reportedly seriously considered. Ultimately, though, concern over how such recognition would complicate U.S. relations with nearby governments in the region ultimately dissuaded the American president from agreeing to the arrangement. Such recognition would also hurt American relations with Somalia, which remains a major counterterrorism partner in the fight against the al-Qaeda affiliate al-Shabaab. Nevertheless, American military presence in the region appears to be growing. Recent reporting suggests the U.S. has sent military personnel to Somaliland's eastern neighbor Puntland, another region claiming independence from Somalia. Despite a fraying federal system and deep insecurity, Somalia is still a member of both the African Union and Arab League, allowing it to maintain close ties with its regional neighbors. U.S. recognition of Somaliland would risk hurting American relations with this broad base of countries across the Middle East and Africa. In terms of what Somaliland is willing to provide the U.S. for recognition (or at least for enhanced relations), Irro told Semafor he would consider offering greater military access - including potentially building a military base (as he has offered before) - as well as access to the country's deep resources. In an appeal directed right at Trump, Irro also suggested the possibility of naming the airport in the major port city of Berbera, which has one of the longest runways on the continent, after the American president. Still, it'll be a challenge for Somaliland's leadership to persuade the United States to recognize it while Somalia remains an American partner in counterterrorism activity, and while the wider regional community opposes Somaliland's independence. But if either of these factors change, and if the Gulf region remains a hotbed for conflict, global geopolitical and military positioning will, at the very least, keep the conversation going. Tyler Durden Thu, 09/24/2026 - 03:30
Gaza watches Israel’s elections with fear and antipathy
Palestinians are following the campaign, but few feel next month's vote will make their lives any better.
Trump-Xi summit: Here’s what’s on the agenda, and why it matters
The leaders of the US and China are expected to discuss trade, AI and Iran in their third in-person meeting in a year.
Gaza $2.45 billion reconstruction plan. Who decides its future?
Gaza’s $2.45bn recovery plan spans housing, health and 4G, but Israeli pullout and Hamas’s disarmament remain unclear.
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov addresses UN Security Council on Ukraine peace talks and ceasefire conditions
World|foreign policy|September 24, 2026 / 11:48 AM Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov addresses UN Security Council on Ukraine peace talks and ceasefire conditions AKIPRESS.COM - Russia looks foreard to negotiations regarding Ukraine to achieve a lasting and just peace, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated during a UN Security Council session, TASS reported...
Why have some nations developed while others struggle?
At UNGA, Iran, Syria and Kenya have highlighted how war and injustice have skewed global development.
Gulf nations have found ways to keep oil flowing through the Iran war, but the costs are mounting
FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) — When Iran shut down the Strait of Hormuz at the start of the war, choking off sea passage for some 15 million barrels of oil a day, many feared that prices would skyrocket, cratering the world economy. Instead, nearly seven months on, oil is expensive but not exorbitant, and analysts say the supply is pretty much sufficient to meet current global needs, even as the higher prices cause political problems for U.S. President Donald Trump and others. That's because Saudi Arabia and other Gulf producers quickly found alternative routes and reached for unused pipeline capacity. When Iran and its militant allies targeted those, the oil exporters and the U.S. military found others — workarounds for the workarounds — in an often clandestine game of whack-a-mole. With oil now at around $100 a barrel — higher than before the war but not as bad as feared — Iran has diminished leverage, while a U.S. naval blockade and tightened sanctions smother its own economy. But the workarounds are expensive and may not be sustainable. The drawing down of existing commercial oil stocks — especially by China — has also helped keep prices in check, but cannot continue indefinitely. And Iran could yet gain an edge with continued attacks on key oil facilities. Pipeline backups were ready Iran began attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz in response to the U.S.-Israeli bombardment that started the war. In response, the Saudis turned to their East-West pipeline that carries oil to their Red Sea port of Yanbu. From there, tankers headed out through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait toward Asia. Likewise, the United Arab Emirates used its pipeline cutting across neighboring Oman to Fujairah — a route that skirts the strait. Both pipelines had spare capacity, and the UAE's state oil company ADNOC and Saudi Aramco used it to keep exports from collapsing completely during the first weeks of the war. Meanwhile, some oil leaked out of the Strait of Hormuz. In May, ship operators willing to risk Iranian attack started taking advantage of a U.S.-supervised route near Oman, defying Iran's demands to use its own vetted route. They shuttled back and forth at night with location systems and mobile phones turned off, and offloaded to tankers waiting outside the strait. Flows from Kuwait, Iraq, and the UAE started to rise again. But Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen disrupted the Yanbu workaround in July by declaring a blockade of Saudi oil shipments, threatening the Bab el-Mandeb — a repeat of the Hormuz disruption. In response, the Saudis redirected Asia shipments northwest to the Mediterranean, either through the Suez Canal or — for tankers too big to use it — a pipeline across Egypt to another tanker. The oil then made a huge detour as it was shipped around Africa and back to Asia. Then the East-West pipeline was attacked earlier this month and forced to shut down, potentially for weeks. The Saudis shift to the US-protected dark shuttle through Hormuz With oil loading halted at Yanbu from Sept. 11, the Saudis shifted again, joining other Gulf producers sending oil through the U.S.-guided corridor in the Strait of Hormuz. On Monday, six supertankers loaded 12 million barrels at Saudi terminals on the Persian Gulf, according to shipping data company Kpler. U.S. officials have touted the role of the southern corridor in keeping energy flowing while their blockade increases pressure on Iran. Adm. Brad Cooper, head of U.S. Central Command, said in a video on social media Saturday that U.S. forces had assisted 2,000 commercial ship transits and the transport of more than 1 billion barrels of oil from Gulf partner nations over “the past couple of months.” Analysts estimate some 6 million barrels of oil per day or more have been passing through the Strait of Hormuz on the dark shuttle route on average — some 40% or more of prewar flows. The workarounds keep the economy supplied, for now Rahul Choudhary, vice president of upstream research at energy data firm Rystad Energy, did the math as follows: with 6 million or 7 million barrels per day now flowing through the southern route, plus 2 million barrels through the pipeline to Fujairah, fully 8 million or so of the blocked 15 million barrels per day from before the war have been restored. That still leaves roughly 7 million barrels per day missing from prewar flows. But wait: about 3.5 million barrels per day are being drawn down from the globe's abundant oil inventories. Meanwhile, demand has fallen by perhaps another 5 million barrels per day, due to the higher price and sluggish economic growth in key markets. Add in 500,000 to 700,000 barrels per day from other suppliers such as the U.S., and that pretty much evens out the global oil market. “Our take is that the market is very tightly balanced,” Choudhary said. “That is why you are not seeing exceptionally high prices for crude; they are still in the $100 range, and they have not touched $140-$150 per barrel — which could have been the case if there was a deficit of 5-6 million barrels.” In fact, Rystad foresees oil at $85-$90 per barrel in the last three months of the year, and falling to $80-$82 next year if Hormuz is reopened. But the workarounds are costly — and not a permanent fix The workarounds are time-consuming and expensive. Sending oil to Asia through the Suez Canal instead of the Red Sea can add as much as a month to the voyage. Meanwhile the Hormuz shuttle trade involves expensive tankers waiting at least a day and a half in the Gulf of Oman for the ship-to-ship transfer. The demand for supertankers has sent charter rates — normally $30,000 to $50,000 per day — through the roof. Spot charter rates for Hormuz transits reached $1 million per day on Sept. 11, according to maritime data company Windward, equivalent to roughly $26 per barrel. That means shipping is a quarter of the cost, instead of the usual 1% to 3%. And markets are braced for further disruption. The attack on the East-West pipeline has shown pipelines can be vulnerable. Iran could try to disrupt the US route through the Strait of Hormuz or target areas near the Omani coast where the ship-to-ship transfers are taking place. If that happens, the workaround would be to do the transfers farther away — taking more time and running up even bigger bills.
‘They uprooted it all’: Israel bulldozes Palestinian-owned olive groves
Israeli bulldozers uprooted olive groves near Ramallah in the occupied West Bank weeks before the annual harvest.
Something Has Changed And World War Over Ukraine Is Back On The Table
Something Has Changed And World War Over Ukraine Is Back On The Table Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us The eyes of the world have been fixated on the war in Iran for the past six months, meanwhile, the single-most dangerous flashpoint on the planet has gone mostly ignored. Until, that is, waves of Ukrainian drone strikes activated a run on global diesel markets. Suddenly, everyone is paying attention again… Russia is the second largest diesel exporter in the world next to the United States, supplying around 12% of total global exports (the US supplies 22% of exports). To put this in perspective, only 10% of global diesel exports pass through the Strait of Hormuz under normal conditions – And that supply is coming from seven different oil producing nations including Iran. After western sanctions, Russian diesel shipments have gone primarily to Turkey, Brazil, India and China. However, because Russian supplies continued to circulate on global markets, these countries did not have to draw fuel from alternative sources. Conditions have now changed, and not for the better. Constant Ukrainianian drone strikes on Russian refineries have forced the Kremlin to stop all diesel exports and retain their existing supply for the population and the war effort. If you want to know why diesel prices have been hit hard since July, Russian export cuts are the reason. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has steadily climbed since July according to independent satellite tracking confirmation (anyone using AIS transponder data alone will have a low and inaccurate count). It’s the Russian refinery issue that has inflated diesel prices in recent months. With Russian sources completely cut off, multiple nations will have to draw from other producers. Meaning, the pie is shrinking, but everyone still wants the same size slice they’ve always had. If the US also stops diesel exports in response, it would be a disaster for foreign markets and result in true supply shortages (Europe would be hard hit; half of their diesel imports come from the US). In 2024 I questioned why the Ukrainians kept going after odd targets such as nuclear early warning radar stations rather than key resources like oil refineries in order to stop Russia’s attrition strategy. Well, it looks like the Ukrainians finally figured it out. Russia’s attrition strategy has been highly effective in grinding down Ukraine’s troop strength (to the point that they were recruiting mostly men over 40), but the key flaw of a slow moving front line and a protracted offensive is that it requires a large stockpile of resources. Ukraine’s drone attacks have a low success rate, but if they send a thousand UAVs to attack a refinery and a couple get through, then that’s still a win in the long run because it drags down Russia’s lumbering attrition-based operation. The Trump Administration has asked Ukraine to stop hitting Russian refineries due to the instability to global markets, but Zelensky has ignored the request. It’s not surprising; they’ve finally found a tactic that works. Of course, now the rest of the world is being affected by diesel supply shortages when this was not the case a year ago. One would think the Europeans, who have been particularly throttled by price hikes on fuel and energy, would be in a rush to end the war. And maybe they are about to intervene, but not in the way we might hope… I think it’s fair to say that the Ukraine war would have ended a long time ago had it not been for the interference of European governments propping up Ukraine and encouraging them to NOT make a deal. Ultimately, Russia is going to keep the Donbas region whether Ukraine likes it or not. But Zelensky refuses to accept this outcome, so, the war rages on much longer than it needs to. The situation gets much more dangerous, though,with the push by European elites to put boots on the ground. They seem to want to start a world war. Beyond the diesel resource problem which puts a timetable on the war for both sides, European governments have increased troop movements to eastern borders and it’s starting to look like they’re getting ready for something big. Poland has been building extensive trenches and fortifications using German combat engineers on the border of Belarus. Germany has established a 5000-man armored brigade in Lithuania, the first time the Germans have stationed permanent combat troops abroad since 1945. NATO has launched a 9th multinational battle group with regular exercises in Finland near the Russian border. Multiple nations are sending rotating brigades to Latvia, Romania and Estonia. Even the Canadians are sending troops. Recent weeks have seen repeated Polish and Baltic fighter activations due to alleged drone or aircraft activity near alliance airspace. Allies are pre-positioning equipment and planning much larger stockpiles of ammunition and resources in frontline states. NATO has also published extensive contingency planning for the eastern flank. There has been a surge in political and civil-preparedness messaging for civilians. Polish warnings about possible disguised drone/missile incidents. French measures to protect critical infrastructure after hybrid-attack briefings. German military-hospital capacity planning. Lithuanian plans for evacuation routes. UK public preparedness bulletins including recommendations for civilians to stock up on food and supplies.. Even Switzerland has been posting security and preparedness messages for citizens, indicating a “deteriorating security situation” in relation to the military build up. All of this could be viewed as a defensive posture and not necessarily planning for direct engagement with the Russians; but consider for a moment that Russia has not once threatened to attack European or NATO targets and has consistently said that their only interest is Ukraine. Yet, Europe has removed their “trip wire” defense strategy and replaced it with a permanent front. It sure does seem like they are getting ready for an event which might provoke the Russians to strike targets outside of Ukraine. What would that event be? To be clear, I’m not a big fan of the Russian government. Evidence suggests that they engage in regular psy-ops in the US and there are far too many conservative influencers who kiss Putin’s ass. That said, I’m not a fan of Ukraine or the Europeans either, and I suspect the EU elites would LOVE to trigger a world war if they thought they could get away with it. Why? Well, here’s my theory… Europe has been the primary target of a decade long cultural replacement operation. Mass immigration has been utilized to undermine the stability of economic and social structures. For years I have been warning that these third world migrants are being imported as a mercenary army to control the locals and prevent rebellion against future leftist agendas. We are already seeing confirmation of this in the UK, where migrants are being integrated into police forces to subdue conservative protesters. The thing is, this invasion plan has sparked an enormous counter-movement of European patriots in countries like Britain and Germany. Anti-immigration and conservative parties like Restore in the UK and the AFD in Germany are seeing wild success in membership and elections. Meaning, time for leftists/globalists is running out and they need to do something quick before they lose direct governmental power. A world war sure would come in handy, right? All kinds of restrictions on the populace can be put in place, along with a perfect excuse to delay or eliminate normal elections. Would the progressives actually go that far just to prevent conservatives from taking government? We all know that they would. So, we have two running clocks that did not exist at the beginning of the Ukraine war: We have a diesel shortage clock, specifically for the Europeans. And, we have an avalanche of conservative movements with major elections happening from 2026 through 2029. My concern is that the leftists are about to go for broke in an effort to keep power. I don’t think they’re crazy enough to want a nuclear war, and perhaps the Russians want to avoid this as well. If that’s the case, then the result would be a large multi-region conflict that MIGHT turn nuclear if either side feels like they are losing. The main goal of the EU elites at that stage would be to lure the US into the fray. In any case the aftershocks would be disastrous. Let’s hope that conservative and populist movements in Europe can pull the rug out from under their far-left governments before the situation on the eastern front escalates any further. Tyler Durden Wed, 09/23/2026 - 23:25