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Conflict Events Archive
16,076 documented events · latest Sep 22, 2026 — chronological archive with full summaries and multi-source verification.
'It Has Been My Great Honor to Settle Eight Wars': Donald Trump
Addressing the United Nations General Assembly and marking the 250th anniversary of American independence, United States President Donald Trump detailed his administration's domestic and international policy agenda. Domestically, Trump highlighted United States economic metrics, poverty reduction, and border security enforcement. In foreign affairs, Trump reiterated that Iran will not be permitted to obtain a nuclear weapon, referencing military strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, the destruction of Iranian naval vessels, and United States naval escorts in the Strait of Hormuz. Trump reviewed the cessation of hostilities in Gaza, the release of hostages, and the formation of a multilateral Board of Peace backed by the United Nations Security Council. He outlined diplomatic mediation across international disputes, including India and Pakistan, Cambodia and Thailand, Kosovo and Serbia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda, Armenia and Azerbaijan, as well as ongoing negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. Additionally, Trump detailed United States military operations in Venezuela, the apprehension of Nicolás Maduro, and an agreement involving 65 billion barrels of oil. He announced an accord with Denmark regarding Greenland to construct two military bases for Arctic defense. On technological policy, Trump stated that the United States government will prioritize super intelligence over traditional artificial intelligence terminology. The address concluded with calls for United Nations structural reforms, spending reductions, opposition to international carbon taxation, and the rejection of International Criminal Court jurisdiction.
Iran offers to reopen key global energy route – media
Iran offers to reopen Strait of Hormuz – media The Strait of Hormuz could reopen within seven days if the US eases military pressure and lifts its blockade of Iranian ports, according to media reports citing a senior Iranian official. The strait is one of the world’s most important energy routes, normally carrying around a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments. Shipping has largely stopped since the US-Israeli war with Iran began in late February, disrupting supplies and driving energy prices higher. Tehran has proposed that Washington declare its readiness to resolve the conflict through diplomacy and agree on a timeline for further steps, the official told Reuters on Tuesday. The proposal was conveyed to the US through mediators last week as world leaders gather in New York for the UN General Assembly. The event is a “golden opportunity for the US to return to diplomacy,” the official said, adding that the Iranian delegation had full authority to revive negotiations. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told NBC that the administration was prepared to speak with Tehran if negotiations had the prospect of producing a positive outcome. The official noted that there were no plans for Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and US President Donald Trump to meet directly at the General Assembly, although Trump signaled on Sunday that he would be open to such a meeting. Iran has set broader conditions for ending the conflict. Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei said on Saturday that Tehran had conveyed seven demands to Washington through mediators, including an end to hostilities, the release of frozen Iranian assets, and the lifting of the naval blockade. Previous attempts to halt the fighting have been fruitless. A memorandum of understanding agreed by the US and Iran in June was followed by renewed hostilities, while no face-to-face talks are known to have taken place since July. US government data show that oil flows through Hormuz fell from 21.6 million barrels per day in the final quarter of 2025 to 4.9 million in the second quarter of this year. Tensions rose again this week after Trump said he was in “deciding mode” over Iran and weighing further military action, economic pressure, or a deal. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps responded by warning that another US attack would prompt Tehran to expand the scope of the conflict and use different weapons. Washington has also threatened further economic pressure. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Monday that companies providing Iranian airlines with fuel, airport services, or ticketing could be denied access to the US dollar system.
Trump claims Iran repeatedly rejected US nuclear deal
The US leader reiterated that he would never allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon
Why are the Houthis fighting for Yemen’s Kahboub Mountains?
Kahboub could help the Houthis consolidate control near one of the world’s busiest shipping routes.
Pezeshkian to follow Iran's interests on Trump meeting at UNGA — envoy
Kazem Jalali added that US President Donald Trump lies every day about the actions of Iranian officials
UN Chief condemns Gaza destruction, West Bank settlements
In his final UN General Assembly address as secretary-general, Antonio Guterres condemned the killing in Gaza.
Jerusalem Daily: Israel besieges Palestinian town
Israeli forces have effectively turned the Palestinian town of Biddu into military barracks.
"Repeated And Persistent Supply-Side Shocks" Are Here To Stay
"Repeated And Persistent Supply-Side Shocks" Are Here To Stay By Michael Every of Rabobank Chicago Fed President Goolsbee just warned the FOMC can’t ignore repeated and persistent supply-side shocks and must respond in a way that will cause economic hardship. However, repeated and persistent supply-side shocks are now the norm, not short-lived, aberrant events. Putin won the Russian election with a supermajority: fears are escalation is imminent via sabotage in Europe, mobilization, or provocations to NATO. The FT notes a Kremlin-backed forgery scheme moved $6.9bn through global banks, as diplomats blamed France for an EU deal to renew 3,000 Russia sanctions listings lapsing. Trump pressed Zelenskyy to stop hitting Russian refineries, stressing it’s about “diesel, diesel, diesel.” CIA boss Ratcliffe also met with him. Trump additionally announced a “massive” Belarus potash deal to undercut trade with Canada, yet will open two new military bases in Greenland, which Russia will see as a provocation. Iran, on high alert, threatened to use new weapons vs. new targets if the US escalates. The US says anyone servicing Iranian airlines will be cut off from the dollar system from tomorrow. Gulf states are urging a reset with Iran yet are elsewhere reported to be planning joint military action with the US and Israel. The Houthis are pushing for control of Yemen’s highlands as Trump is said to have called off strikes, likely to keep pressure on the Saudis to join a bigger push. The UK is offering to help the Saudis via air-to-air refuelling, which isn’t much direct help even if it places the UK on the Houthis hit list: PM Burnham has made longer public statements on how to refuel via a cup of tea than on this issue. The EU’s Kallas and Italy urged the EU to reinforce its Red Sea Aspides naval force, as nearby seven Ethiopian rebel groups formed a new anti-government alliance, worsening the geopolitical picture further. Despite two more tankers being hit, oil is flowing from Hormuz, expensively, and refined products aren’t, making them even more expensive. With VLCC oil tanker daily rates top $1.2m vs. a normal $40,000 - $100,000 and order books are constrained by global shipyard capacity, commodity trader Trafigura just launched a new ocean carrier of its own, Volare Shipping. The US is proposing a $5bn kickstart fund to rebuild Gulf energy sites, but the war must be won first; and global oil and gas discoveries have just hit a 40-year low on investment cutbacks. Germany announced limited fuel price caps and fuel-tax suspensions, France is pushing for similar emergency action on energy prices, and US Republicans are calling to halt diesel exports. The latter wouldn’t be a lasting solution to higher US prices if markets operate freely in an integrated global system, but a hypothetical invocation of the Defence Production Act to ‘manage’ refineries and a geopolitical closed-loop trading bloc could work such that some have much lower energy prices, others much higher ones. At which point, consider if we are seeing global bifurcation into blocs, why should the energy sector operate as a ‘one world’ system? Why wouldn’t it be bifurcated to benefit those with energy vs. those without? “Because markets?” Why? “Because war?” Those without energy surrender, not fight. Also note if one holds the Americas’ and Middle East’s oil production and refining, one effectively controls oil; and if one holds the Americas’ and the Middle East’s are on fire, then in *relative* terms, the Americas are winners… and many others are the losers. Meanwhile, the US coast guard is watching a Chinese marine presence off Alaska, as the US, Japan and South Korea launched joint economic-security talks before the Trump-Xi summit. Ahead of it, Chinese rare-earth shipments have dropped 20% month-on-month, showing Chinese leverage. Yet USTR Greer suggested the US could support a bilateral trade truce extension of just 3-6 months rather than the end-of-Trump term China wants. That suggests the US has cards to play ahead. Vietnam is also saying a US trade deal is close and denied it is a transhipment hub for Chinese goods. Watch that space closely. Despite the headlines, perhaps pay less attention to Canada extending an easy-to-say-hard-to-deliver ‘unique relationship’ offer from the EU to the UK,… and to Brazil and Kenya. That’s likely to prove emotionally appealing, realpolitik-naïve middle-power gobbledy-‘BEUKCUK’. Indeed, Mexico is close to agreeing to buy more US goods and fewer from other countries under a new USMCA. That weakens Canada’s negotiating position along with the US-Greenland security deal and the one for Belarussian potash. Against that bifurcating backdrop, the ECB rolled out a digital euro in wholesale financial markets via its new Pontes (“bridge”) scheme for banks. This new pipe in Eurozone financial plumbing allows tokenised asset transactions to settle using money issued by the ECB, where private distributed ledger technology platforms can now access the Eurosystem's TARGET services. What is that a bridge towards and what’s the real Pontes? We shall see. By contrast, after Congress stalled the CLARITY Act, which would have accelerated the global roll-out of US dollar stablecoins, a Strategic Working Office for Rapid Deployment (SWORD) has opened at the International Development Finance Corporation tasked with “high-impact investments that advance US foreign policy, development, and national security priorities.” SWORD might use drops of USD stablecoins to build bridges, or demolish them, in key geopolitical and geoeconomic areas… like the energy sector(?) So, back to central banks: is it better to make a bad situation worse with higher rates, or watch inflation move further above target? What is a 25bp hike going to do about a VLCC daily rate up 30-40X normal besides impact a housing or corporate loan holder already dealing with the sharp end of that daily rate increase? There is no ‘good’ choice, only bad ones – and in many senses. Politically, we just saw another German election result where the far-right and far-left trounced the centre, and both populists are on the ascendancy more widely. Chancellor Merz has pledged a “reset” but admitted German conservatives don’t have the “answers.” But who does? The centre was built for a paradigm that arguably no longer exists. More rate hikes, or inflation, into that mix and then what? Australian consumers’ mood is sinking as RBA rates are rising, with another hike whispered for next week as Governor Bullock spoke of a “wild ride” and “limiting indirect effects of supply shocks” today - and the populist One Nation Party’s electoral fortunes are rising with it. The key point is if the wars vs. Russia and/or Iran were over, energy prices would be lower, so would inflation, and rates could then sustainably follow. Until that happens, it’s hard to make that case. If so, how could the wars end? By the West losing - but the consequences are unacceptable to it. By Russia and Iran losing - but the consequences are even more unacceptable to them. That implies Goolsbee’s “repeated and persistent supply-side shocks” are here to stay, or at least that things will get much worse before they get better. Then recall central banks were created specifically to finance governments fighting wars. That’s what the Bank of England was set up to do vs. Napoleon, for example. That’s what they also did in WW1 and WW2, and in the US case right up until the Korean War. The key question is perhaps how long until a central bank recalls another way to deal with persistent geopolitical supply-side shocks is to help its government achieve ‘resilience’ via regaining physical control of supply chains. That’s what most Developed Markets are supposed to have the power to do when Emerging Markets do not. Such action would be a bridge to a huge structural shift; so would a lack of such action “because markets” or due to a lack of power. Tyler Durden Tue, 09/22/2026 - 10:30
Head of Spain's public broadcaster backs new Eurovision boycott
Spain joined the Netherlands, Iceland, Ireland and Slovenia in pulling out of this year's contest in Austria in protest over Israel's presence amid the war in Gaza, triggered by Hamas's 2023 attacks on Israel. Ireland and the Netherlands have also announced their boycott of the 2027 showpiece in Bulgaria, with Irish broadcaster RTE citing "the appalling and ongoing loss of lives in Gaza and the humanitarian crisis there". Israeli strikes have killed more than 1,300 people in the devastated Palestinian territory since an October 2025 ceasefire, according to the Gaza health ministry, whose figures are considered generally reliable by the United Nations. José Pablo López, president of Spanish broadcaster RTVE, told a Senate committee on Tuesday that it was "deeply painful" that Israel's public broadcaster would continue to participate in Eurovision "despite everything, and given this situation that is still being experienced in Gaza". In August, Eurovision organisers said they were excluding any country involved in an armed conflict from hosting the competition. The winner usually earns the right to host the following edition, and Israel came close to taking home the trophy in 2025 and 2026. López said there had been "technical progress, but there is also clearly unfinished business on the ethical front". "For this reason, I announce that I will propose to the RTVE board that we maintain the suspension of our participation in Eurovision," López said. Spanish media have reported the board's next meeting will be held by mid-October. Spain is one of the so-called "big five" nations that make the biggest financial contributions to the European Broadcasting Union, the organiser of Eurovision, that automatically qualify for the final of the contest. The Palestinian cause enjoys widespread support in Spain. Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has been one of Israel's most virulent critics, labelling its actions in Gaza a genocide.
Iran to reopen Strait of Hormuz within week if US agrees to its terms — Kyodo
Tehran’s demands include lifting the US blockade of Iran’s ports, ending the war on all fronts, and unblocking Iran’s frozen assets
Israeli defense chief threatens to evacuate Gaza City if Hamas kidnaps even one Israeli
Israel Katz went on to threaten to destroy Gaza's "homes and terror towers"
Saudi Arabia’s East-West oil pipeline resumes operations — Reuters
According to the agency, oil is currently flowing through the pipeline at reduced volumes
Iran delegation to present narrative of resilience, diplomacy at UNGA
Iran’s delegation has arrived to New York for the UNGA where the war with the United States will be raised.
Saudis Signal Red Sea Oil Loadings Could Soon Resume For Asian Buyers
Saudis Signal Red Sea Oil Loadings Could Soon Resume For Asian Buyers Bloomberg reports Saudi Aramco may restart crude loadings at Yanbu this week, raising hopes that the critical East-West pipeline route, which bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, could resume operations at half capacity after a drone attack disabled it. While no restart timeline has been confirmed, the overnight development adds to positive signs of progress toward resolving the global energy crisis after Brent slipped below $100 a barrel on reports that Iran offered to reopen the strait in exchange for an easing of US naval pressure and the US blockade of Iranian ports. However, Iran's semi-official Fars News Agency has denied reports from Kyodo and Reuters about reopening Hormuz, calling them "invalid and untrue." The report also said Aramco executives told at least three Asian refiners they could soon resume picking up crude at Yanbu on the Red Sea. Loadings at the Red Sea port have been halted since drone attacks launched from Iraq struck an East-West pipeline pumping station on September 10. The route had been carrying about 4 million barrels a day, providing Saudi Arabia with a valuable bypass around the Hormuz chokepoint. Some Asian and European buyers have already missed their loading dates, leaving vessels near Yanbu or still heading toward the port. The Saudis have ramped up crude tanker transits from Ras Tanura through Hormuz, with cargoes available for ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman. Despite this morning's encouraging reports, Barclays analyst Amarpreet Singh warned that Brent prices may need to climb another 50% to bring supply and demand into balance if current disruptions persist. Inventory and consumption indicators suggest "prices have a long way to go before supply and demand converge," Singh wrote in the note. He pointed out that net Middle Eastern supply losses have narrowed to an estimated 4.7 million barrels a day, down from 12 million to 13 million at the start of the war. But months of disruption have left the market with inadequate buffers to protect against another big supply shock. Singh forecasts Brent at $95 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, followed by $90, $85, $85 and $80 across the four quarters of 2027. The potential 50% increase represents an upside scenario if disruptions continue. Separately, UBS analyst Joe Dickinson told clients earlier that "Trump's approval ratings hit new lows and public Republican dissatisfaction continued to build ahead of the midterm elections. Polymarket is now pricing a 65% probability of a Democratic clean sweep, adding pressure on Trump to deliver tangible progress in negotiations over the conflict in the Middle East." Tyler Durden Tue, 09/22/2026 - 09:25
Putin speaks by phone with Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince
The Russian leader congratulated the Saudi Crown Prince on the upcoming national holiday - the day marking the founding of Saudi Arabia
Pentagon Investigators Say Overreliance on Palantir AI Contributed to US Strike That Killed 123 Iranian Children - Slashdot
Pentagon Investigators Say Overreliance on Palantir AI Contributed to US Strike That Killed 123 Iranian Children (gizmodo.com) Two U.S. missiles hit an elementary school in Iran, killing over 150 people including 123 children on the first day of the Iran War. But Gizmodo notes that a new Bloomberg investigation cites U.S. officials involved in an unreleased internal Pentagon review who blame "a cascade of preventable failures that included an overreliance on an AI tool built by Palantir." According to the officials who spoke to Bloomberg, some personnel inside U.S. Central Command leaned too hard on the AI inside the Maven Smart System, an AI-powered data integration and targeting platform developed by Palantir to accelerate intelligence analysis and decision-making. The Defense Department has reportedly made the software tool a cornerstone of military operations over the past year... Officials said some users expected Maven to flag stale records or contradictions in the intelligence assembled for potential targets, though it is not clear why they thought the system would do that. The Minab [elementary school] site, which was cataloged as an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps facility due to outdated data, was fed into Maven with other candidates and came out as a recommended day-one target. Target-list work that once took hours was condensed into minutes. A Palantir spokesperson told Bloomberg the company "is not responsible for the underlying data nor identifying intelligence deficiencies" and that there is no evidence its software was at fault. Two people familiar with Palantir's Pentagon contracts said the government keeps primary responsibility for the quality of the information that's fed into Maven. After the strike, Palantir added features that "re-review underlying intelligence to identify factors that would disqualify a target and flag inconsistencies and inaccuracies that human review may have missed," a person familiar with the work said. That new functionality is said to have already caught some anomalies... More than 1,000 Iranian targets were hit in the first 24 hours, and according to Bloomberg's sources, that pace compressed the time available for additional confirmations. Staffing on civilian harm mitigation teams across the U.S. Department of Defense had also fallen by roughly 90% over recent years, shrinking to fewer than 20 people overall. The U.S. Central Command's group shrank from 10 people to one. No member of those teams reviewed the Minab site before the missiles were up in the air. A separate inquiry by the United Nations' Independent International Fact-Finding Mission on Iran this week reached the conclusion that there were reasonable grounds to believe the United States committed the war crime of launching an indiscriminate attack. A Palantir spokesperson told Bloomberg the company "is not responsible for the underlying data nor identifying intelligence deficiencies" and that there is no evidence its software was at fault. Two people familiar with Palantir's Pentagon contracts said the government keeps primary responsibility for the quality of the information that's fed into Maven. After the strike, Palantir added features that "re-review underlying intelligence to identify factors that would disqualify a target and flag inconsistencies and inaccuracies that human review may have missed," a person familiar with the work said. That new functionality is said to have already caught some anomalies... More than 1,000 Iranian targets were hit in the first 24 hours, and according to Bloomberg's sources, that pace compressed the time available for additional confirmations. Staffing on civilian harm mitigation teams across the U.S. Department of Defense had also fallen by roughly 90% over recent years, shrinking to fewer than 20 people overall. The U.S. Central Command's group shrank from 10 people to one. No member of those teams reviewed the Minab site before the missiles were up in the air. A separate inquiry by the United Nations' Independent International Fact-Finding Mission on Iran this week reached the conclusion that there were reasonable grounds to believe the United States committed the war crime of launching an indiscriminate attack.
Idle workers, empty wharves: Hormuz blockade hits Iraq’s oil hub of Basra
BASRA, Sept 22 — In the Iraqi oil hub of Basra, maintenance contractor Fawzi spends his days cooling his heels waiting for work that seldom comes, as the Middle East war puts a serious crimp on the once-bustling port town. Basra has long been a key cog in Iraq’s economy but, after months of Iran choking off Gulf oil exports with its blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, the city is suffering. Fuel trucks stand idle and workers face pay cuts and lay-offs. “I haven’t done anything in a month,” Fawzi told AFP. “What are we supposed to maintain?” Many Basra residents have lost their jobs or taken heavy pay cuts as private contractors, as oil fields and the Umm Qasr cargo port scale back operations. Crude oil exports account for almost 90 per cent of Iraq’s foreign revenue, and are primarily shipped through Hormuz via the cluster of facilities around Basra, the country’s only gateway to the Gulf. The war has cruelly exposed Iraq’s dependence on oil, and its main export route, dealing a setback to its economic recovery after decades of conflict. Fawzi said his company first slashed salaries by 20 per cent, then by half, before laying off dozens of employees. He now reports for duty just 15 days a month. Basra’s parking areas overflow with oil trucks. Some linger empty, while others wait for weeks with full tanks to load their crude onto ships. Cheap oil Before the war started at the end of February, Iraq produced around four million barrels of crude per day and exported an average of 3.4 million, mostly via Hormuz. But when Iran blockaded Hormuz, onshore storage quickly filled up, forcing Iraq to slash production. Experts have long warned Iraq to introduce different income streams to cushion swings in the energy market. But with a fledgling private sector, poor banking system and dilapidated infrastructure, diversification is difficult. Iraq has sought to calm fears by using alternative routes, including trucks through Syria and a pipeline to Turkey, but they can handle only a fraction of the sea-bound trade. After a sharp drop, Iraqi oil exports through Hormuz came climbing back in the first week of September, data from the maritime tracking firm Kpler showed. However, Iraq sold the oil at “discounted prices”, a government official said. According to authorities, Iraq exported an average of 2.6 million bpd so far in September. Iran had announced a special exemption for Iraqi tankers in late August, while the US says it has recently managed to boost Gulf exports through a secure Hormuz corridor hugging the Omani coast. Nonetheless, the economic fallout is evident. Prices have surged and the Iraqi dinar has fluctuated. Foreign currency reserves fell by $20 billion, according to the government official. Iraq relies heavily on foreign currency from oil sales to pay civil servants, finance imports and stabilise the dinar. The collapse in these revenues forced authorities to borrow internally. While the government hopes it can continue borrowing for months, “it’s probably banking on a resolution to the conflict before the end of this year”, economic expert Ali al-Mawlawi said. The recent partial recovery in oil exports bought the government “a little more time”, and allowed it to pay salaries with minor delays. “The imperative is to ensure that it can continue” to do so, Mawlawi warned. Empty wharves Iraq imports most of its goods, from food and medicine to electronics and natural gas. But Umm Qasr, the major southern port, now stands nearly deserted. Only a few vessels are docked in its northern section, including an Iranian-flagged cargo ship, and a vessel that port employees said had passed through Hormuz from China. Three newly built wharves are vacant, their cranes and walkways empty. The downturn has hit hard. State port workers lost their monthly incentives, which are linked to the port’s profits and had supplemented their pay. The head of the port’s northern sector, Captain Salem Hussein, said “if ships don’t come... companies cannot maintain the same workforce”. “Real work resumes only when Hormuz reopens,” he added. The disruption has rippled through the local economy. Basra electronics vendor Zaid Hadi, 36, said sales had halved, blaming higher import costs, salary cuts, job losses and the exodus of foreign oil-sector workers. Customers “now hesitate to spend... worried about possible salary delays” and fearing harder times ahead, he said. Amir, 35, worked for a private contractor at an oil field that he said took drastic action, including slashing salaries by 40 per cent. “In Basra, we depend on the port and the oil, and now both have come to a halt,” Amir said. — AFP
UN warns of rising Yemen displacement as thousands flee to Djibouti
Renewed fighting could drive 10,000 across the Red Sea and displace more than 230,000 internally, UNHCR says.
Iran president heads to UNGA, vows to highlight US ‘oppression’
Iran president heads to UNGA, vows to highlight US 'oppression'
Futures Flat As Oil, Yields Drop Ahead Of Trump UN Address
Futures Flat As Oil, Yields Drop Ahead Of Trump UN Address Futures are flat, having recoverd a modest drop after the European open, following yesterday’s strong, positive performance despite energy prices and yields being lower for a second consecutive day. As of 8:00am ET, S&P and Nasdaq futures are fractionally in the green after an advance in tech giants and chipmakers drove the index to a one-month high. In premarket trading, semis are down ~60bp after a blistering 5-day run that added 11.2%. Memory names are weaker as Mag7 and Software remain bid. Alibaba ADRs (BABA) gain 3% as the company is rolling out what it calls China’s most powerful AI chip, an accelerator to compete with Nvidia Corp. Brent crude erased gains of as much as 2% to fall toward $98 a barrel. The reversal came after Japan’s Kyodo News Agency reported that Iran has proposed to reopen Hormuz within seven days if the US blockade is lifted. While Iran has since denied this report, a separate report that Saudis may restart the East-West pipeline helped sentiment. Treasury yields turned lower, with the 10-year rate down two basis points to 4.93%. The dollar barely budged while the entire commodity complex is lower, though Base Metals are a bid. These moves likely reflect growing optimism around a diplomatic solution in the Middle East and improved US / China relations, which combined will support AI and lower energy prices, and potentially lower tariff rates. Today’s macro data focus is on ADP’s weekly number, regional Fed activity indicators, and another Fedspeaker. Looking ahead, highlights include UN Meetings: UN General Debate including Trump, Macron, Burnham; Trump-Zelensky meeting; Trump-Burnham meeting; Trump-Gulf Leaders meeting. In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed: Alphabet +0.5%, Amazon +0.4%, Apple +0.2%, Meta -0.7%, Microsoft +0.8%, Nvidia -0.2%, Tesla +0.7% Alibaba ADRs (BABA) gain 3% as the company is rolling out what it calls China’s most powerful AI chip, an accelerator to compete with Nvidia Corp. GameStop (GME) rises 4% after CEO Ryan Cohen disclosed a $26.4 million stock purchase in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Grab (GRAB) rises 6% after Chief Executive Officer Anthony Ping Yeow Tan disclosed a $29.9 million stock purchase in a filing with the SEC. Quest Diagnostics (DGX) falls 6% after the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services released new preliminary medicare payment rates for lab services. Vicor (VICR) jumps 9% after the power equipment company raised its third-quarter revenue growth guidance, citing royalties from non-exclusive license to Vertical Power Delivery. Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) soars 32% after announcing positive topline results from a study of dosing regimens for maintaining weight loss. In other corporate news, Roche’s experimental obesity shot enicepatide reduced body weight by 15.5% in trial, potentially ramping up competition with Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk. On Holding plans to increase constant currency sales at a rate in the high teens through 2029 and ratchet up profitability, as the Swiss brand introduces new products for golf and soccer in its effort to take on Adidas and Nike. Federal prosecutors are investigating whether Binance, the operator of the world’s biggest crypto exchange, violated US sanctions on Iran by not stopping certain trading on its platform. The newly merged Paramount Skydance and Warner Bros. will be headquartered in Los Angeles, CEO David Ellison said. Stocks are set to for a breather after the strongest session since early August. Positive geopolitical developments and a new lease of life for the AI trade made Monday an easy win, but questions remain on both fronts. Crude prices reversed earlier gains after Kyodo reported, citing an Iranian official, that Iran has suggested to the US administration that it will open the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the US lifts its blockade on Iranian ports and stops military operations related to Hormuz. Alongside the Kyodo report were constructive comments by the IRGC, stating that if Iran’s national interests require negotiations alongside war, then it must negotiate. Elsewhere, Saudi Arabia was testing a restart of its East-West pipeline, according to a person familia with the matter, offering another potential boost to supply. Brent has returned below USD 94/bbl on the above headlines. A constructive risk tone followed, with equity futures and fixed income rising while the USD weakened. President Donald Trump is set to address the United Nations General Assembly in New York later Tuesday, with traders watching for a possible meeting with his Iranian counterpart that could prove pivotal. AI-linked stocks were mixed after a positive reception for Meta Platforms Inc.’s new AI agent fueled broad gains in the previous session. Microsoft Corp. rose 0.9% in premarket trading to lead gains among the Magnificent Seven. An exchange-traded fund tracking chipmakers was slightly lower. Monday’s price action showed that AI FOMO is still a big driving force in the market. One indication appears in call to put skew on a 10% move in SPX over the next month. That skew metric is at its highest since late August, hovering just below its year-to-date high. The sentiment is across asset classes, with SoftBank said to have drawn more than $20 billion of preliminary demand for its junk bond deal to help fund investments in OpenAI. The swings in sentiment after Monday’s rally highlighted how confidence in the AI trade remains vulnerable to macroeconomic risks. Bond yields remain near their highest levels in years despite easing this week, as traders continue to price in imminent interest-rate hikes and persistent fiscal shortfalls. “I don’t see anyone shorting tech and AI before the third-quarter earnings season begins,” said David Kruk, head of trading at La Financiere de l’Echiquier in Paris. “There’s also some hope that Trump will find a way to lower oil prices before the midterms. It makes sense that the market consolidates slightly.” The strong early uptake of Meta’s Muse AI agent revived hopes of agentic AI coming to the mainstream consumer market, with more insights expected during Zuckerberg’s keynote speech at Meta Connect tomorrow night. Elsewhere in AI, Alibaba rolled out what it called China’s most powerful AI chip, an accelerator to compete with Nvidia and underpin a massive expansion of data center capacity in coming years. Tencent launched its latest image-generation model. Headlines may also come from Amazon Accelerate over the next few days. Still, angst about the data center buildout continues, with Texas Governor Greg Abbott halting all permits sought by data centers until an audit of risks to the grid is complete. Texas is home of one-fifth of the US’s data center pipeline in terms of IT power capacity, by far the largest of any single state. Global investors are also gearing up for the summit between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping later this week. Officials from the two sides wrapped up their second day of talks in New York on Monday as they sought to advance negotiations ahead of Xi’s visit to the US. For markets, the big question is what happens when the yearlong trade truce expires in November, noted Jim Reid at Deutsche Bank AG. While the tone between the two sides remains positive, they have yet to reach an agreement. “Given increasing geopolitical uncertainty worldwide, keeping the world’s two dominant economies on speaking terms has rarely mattered more,” said Roman Ziruk, lead FX strategist at Ebury. In trade, Vietnamese President To Lam said his nation is “very close” to a deal with the US as he pledged to buy more high-tech goods to narrow the trade gap. Canada’s trade minister said talks with India are “moving along really well” as his country looks for new markets amid a tariff war with the US. Meanwhile, China’s expansion in the rare-earth supply chain could help provide Xi leverage over the US during their talks. The Stoxx 600 briefly touched a session high too and is up by around 0.2%, rising on Tuesday as oil drops, with tech shares also fueled by optimism around artificial intelligence developments. Retail and consumer shares are the best performers. Energy and insurance fall. Stoxx 600 gains 0.2% to 643.25 with 200 members down, 390 up and 10 unchanged. Here are some of the biggest movers on Tuesday: Bureau Veritas rises as much as 2.1% after saying it expects double-digit revenue growth over 2027-2028 and aims to deliver €1 billion from AI-driven markets by the end of the decade. Kingfisher shares rise as much as 11% after the B&Q and Screwfix owner posted a first-half earnings beat and lifted its full-year profit guidance beyond analyst expectations. Vusion shares rise as much as 11% after the French maker of electronic labels for retail stores reported first half results that included an almost 50% increase in adjusted Ebitda. Verbund gains as much as 5.1%, while ERG is up as much as 2.9%, after Bank of America upgraded both to neutral from underperform. Smiths Group gains as much as 6.4% with analysts generally positive on the UK manufacturing equipment firm’s performance in 2026, and its outlook for 2027. Buzzi shares fall as much as 5%, to the lowest since January 2025, as UBS downgrades the Italian construction materials firm to sell from neutral, warning that import pressure and CO2 allowance costs could drive sharp earnings downgrades. UBS shares fall as much as 4.1% after CEO Sergio Ermotti says year-on-year transactions in wealth management and banking fee pool are likely down in 3Q. Ericsson slips as much as 4.3% after Morgan Stanley downgrades the Swedish mobile networks and technology group to underweight from equal-weight, saying margins are “inflecting to the downside.” Industrie De Nora tumbles as much as 14% after investor Snam offloaded a chunk of shares at a hefty discount to the last close. The stock has slipped below the offer price. Asian stocks advanced for a fifth day, as technology sector gained amid optimism over Meta Platform Inc.’s new personal agent. The MSCI Asia Pacific excluding Japan Index jumped as much as 1.5% before paring about half of those gains. Taiwan’s Taiex climbed to a record before erasing most of the advance. Korea’s Kospi closed 0.2% higher, while Japan remained shut for a holiday. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fluctuated, and is now flat. The yen wiped out its decline, with USDJPY briefly slipping below 157. Tencent shares jumped 5%, as positive feedback on Meta’s new personal agent unleashed investor optimism that the Chinese social media giant may unlock similar AI‑driven optionality through its WeChat ecosystem. Alibaba gained 2% after it rolled out an AI chip and announced plans to expand data center capacity over the coming years. In rates, treasuries hold modest gains after erasing losses during European morning following a sharp drop in oil prices. US yields are about 2bp-3bp richer across the curve led by the belly, steepening 5s30s spread by around 1bp. 10-year, near session lows around 4.93%, keeps pace with German counterpart and trails UK by about 1bp. European bond yields shifted direction on the slide for crude, with 10-year yields down by about a basis point in the US, Europe and the US, having been pushing higher through the first portion of the session. 2-year note auction at 1 p.m. has WI yield near 4.75%, about 55bp cheaper than last month’s, which stopped through by 0.4bp; $70 billion 5-year and $44 billion 7-year note auctions follow over next two days. IG dollar issuance slate includes a few offerings so far. Nine were priced Monday totaling around $10 billion, with issuer paying about 3bp in new issue concessions on deals that were 3.4 times covered. US session includes $69 billion 2-year note auction, the first of this week’s three coupon sales, with additional supply pressure possible from Sysco Corp. jumbo multi-currency bond offering. In commodities, crude futures fell on signs of diplomatic efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz - driven by a Japanese media report on a possible early reopening of the Strait of Hormuz - and as Saudi Arabia sought to reopen a pipeline Brent is sitting just below $100/bbl while WTI has slipped below $94. Gold fell below $4,300 but recovered some ground, though is still off for the day. US economic data slate includes ADP weekly employment change (8:15 a.m.), September Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity (8:30 a.m.) and September Richmond Fed manufacturing index (10 a.m.). Fed speaker slate includes New York’s Williams (10:05 a.m.), Vice Chair Jefferson (10:20 a.m.) and Richmond’s Barkin (1 p.m.) Market Snapshot Top Overnight News Brent crude dropped below $100 on a Kyodo report that Iran could reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the US lifted a blockade of its ports. Futures whipsawed. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said it must negotiate if it’s in the national interest to do so. BBG Several Asian refiners have been told informally by Saudi Aramco they will soon be able to pick up oil from the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Loadings from Yanbu have been all-but-halted since the East-West pipeline was closed after being attacked by drones launched from Iraq on Sept. 10. BBG China's Xi Jinping is expected to press US President Donald Trump to halt Taiwan arms sales under a 1982 joint statement during a visit to Washington this week, which he could do at the US National Archives, sources briefed on the matter said. BBG Alibaba unveiled what it called China’s most powerful AI chip, an accelerator to rival Nvidia and underpin a massive expansion of data center capacity. BBG Saudi Arabia spent months rerouting oil across the desert to circumvent the Strait of Hormuz. Now, with its Red Sea bypass route disrupted by attacks, the world’s oil kingpin is having to return to the waterway it was trying to avoid in the first place. Saudi Aramco, the country’s state-controlled oil giant, is loading more oil onto tankers in the Persian Gulf and then taking its chances sending them through the Strait of Hormuz. WSJ Republican lawmakers are ratcheting up pressure on Donald Trump to ban diesel exports as surging prices squeeze American farmers and truckers just weeks ahead of pivotal midterm elections. FT SoftBank drew more than $20 billion of preliminary demand for what’s shaping up to be one of the biggest junk bond deals ever. BBG Trump's approval rating fell to 32% - the lowest of his political career - as his fellow Republicans soured on his handling of the cost of living amid the unpopular Iran war. RTRS US office real estate is entering a new phase as billions in maturing debt force owners and investors to confront losses. Office CMBS delinquencies are near a record 12%, with almost $40 billion of debt maturing this year and next already troubled. BBG Iran War A Senior Iranian Official said that Tehran welcomes the revival of diplomacy if the US takes tangible steps, stating that the Iranian delegation is in the US and has full authority to revive diplomacy in the US, Reuters reported. The official added that details of an agreement to end hostilities with the US can be discussed in New York via mediators. Furthermore, the official said the proposal was delivered to the US via mediators on September 16th while reiterating the Kyodo report that Iran can reopen the Strait within seven days if the US eases military pressure and lifts the blockade. Iran has reportedly suggested to the US administration that it will open the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the US lifts its blockade on Iranian ports and stop military operations related to Hormuz, Kyodo reported citing an Iranian official. The official added that the proposal called for renewed talks aimed at reaching a permanent end to hostilities between the two countries. Furthermore, the official went on to say that there is a possibility of moving toward an agreement, but the US must demonstrate "seriousness and commitment" if diplomacy is to advance. IRGC said that if Iran’s national interests require negotiations alongside war, then it must negotiate but it will respond to any enemy strike with multiple strikes across different arenas and in various ways, Al Jazeera reported. To add, the IRGC said it will have no contact with the US as a military institution, even if Washington requests it and its assessments indicate the US and Israel are not prepared for a new war, but Iran is ready if they miscalculate. US President Trump said he had meetings regarding Iran and that Iran is not doing well. Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said US President Trump cannot impose his power on Iran, adding that Iran will neither shut down nor surrender. Ghalibaf went on to say that missile technology is at a stage where Iran can "target anywhere it decides" and they will never yield in the conflict. Iran's Judiciary Spokesperson said Iran has full control over the Strait of Hormuz, SNN reported. Iran's Foreign Ministry said introducing Iran as a cause of fuel price hikes is merely a sign of the US administration's evasion of responsibility for consequences of military aggression against Iran. G7 issued a statement on the Middle East which noted the situation in Yemen poses an unacceptable threat to the stability and security in the region and to global energy security, while it condemned in the strongest terms the unacceptable continued strikes carried out by the Houthis in Yemen and against Saudi Arabia. It called on the Houthis to immediately cease all military actions, threats and attacks against civilian shipping, as well as called on Iran to end its arming of and support for the Houthis, which it noted violates UN Security Council resolutions. Furthermore, it stated that Iran's reprehensible actions constitute a dangerous pattern of escalation and risk further exacerbating the conflict. Israeli Defence Minister said they will bomb Iran for the 3rd time if necessary until the regime is overthrown, Al Arabiya reported. French President Macron said he had a constructive discussion with US President Trump on the Red Sea and Ukraine. UK PM Burnham agreed for the UK to provide Saudi Arabia with defensive air-to-air refuelling, with the support to begin in days and last for weeks. EU's Kallas said the EU naval mission in the Red Sea requires additional naval and air resources, while she added the EU would need more than 10 ships in the Red Sea. A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk APAC stocks mostly gained following the advances on Wall Street, where the Nasdaq outperformed and notched a record close as Meta shares surged over 11% on strong adoption of its Muse AI agent and with AMD joining the USD 1tln market cap club, while markets in Japan were closed again for the holidays. ASX 200 traded marginally higher but with gains capped as the strength in tech, consumer discretionary and health care was partly offset by losses in utilities, energy and financials. KOSPI took its cue from the tech and communications outperformance stateside, while South Korea's Industry Ministry noted that the final announcement on the US investment plan will be made by President Trump, with the funds to be remitted within 45 days if requested by the US. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were positive as tech stocks led the advances in Hong Kong, although some property, energy and biopharmaceutical stocks lagged while participants also continue to await the Trump-Xi summit this week. Top Asian News RBA Governor Bullock said supply shocks are difficult for monetary policy to deal with and that policy needs to deal with second-round effects on inflation, while she stated that the current decline in house prices is consistent with past episodes and that unemployment at 4.5‑5% is likely to reduce inflation pressure. Furthermore, Bullock said she is not signalling anything on policy, and it is up to the board, as well as noted that inflation risks are materialising from the Middle East and excess demand at home. RBNZ Governor Breman said near-term inflation is expected to be somewhat higher if elevated oil prices persist, while she noted the RBNZ remains focused on the inflation outlook ahead of the October policy decision. Breman also commented that the economic outlook remains subject to significant risks and that current data points to continued economic recovery, though progress remains uneven. Alibaba (9988 HK) unveiled its Zhenwu V900 chip, which it said is the most powerful in China with three times the performance of the predecessor, while the Co. targets 20GW of data centre capacity by 2032 and the Qwen team plans to train a new model at a scale of 5tln-10tln parameters. European bourses were initially lower this morning, but then flicked into the green after a report in Kyodo suggested that Iran could open the Strait of Hormuz within seven days, citing a source. This helped boost sentiment, with crude benchmarks falling to lows, hence weighing on yields. European sectors hold a positive bias. Retail took the top spot, joined closely by Media and Tech. To the downside resides Insurance and Telecoms. Key European movers include: Kingfisher (+8.2%) , raises its FY26/27 adj. PBT guidance; Smiths Group (+4.5%), FY26 revenue raises Y/Y and raises its dividend above estimates; Evonik (+3.3%), reports that BASF explored a potential deal with the Co. earlier in 2026; Bureau Veritas (+1.0%), raises its 2027-28 total revenue CAGR guidance; Ericsson (-3.5%), downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley. Top European News German Chancellor Merz’s woes cast doubt over the bloc's EUR 2tln budget deal, with his authority in Brussels hobbled by his party’s poor results in regional elections, according to FT. UK PM Burnham to call on EU Commission President von der Leyen to allow the UK to partake in the EU's Made in Europe industrial framework, according to the FT. FX Snapshot: The FX space has been exceptionally choppy this morning. Initially, G10s were mixed against the USD, but are now mostly lower, as the USD clambered higher as the session progressed. The Kiwi outperforms after hawkish comments from RBNZ Governor Bremen. She noted that near-term inflation is expected to be somewhat higher if elevated oil prices persist. DXY is a touch lower this morning and holds within a 100.30 to 100.66 range. The bias was initially stronger for much of the European morning, before a report in Kyodo, citing an Iranian source, suggested that Iran had told the US admin that it will open the Strait within seven days, if the US lifts its blockade on Iranian ports. This spurred immediate and sustained pressure in the crude complex, weighing on yields and therefore on the USD. Following this action, JPY was the largest beneficiary, flicking from red to green within a few minutes. USD/JPY fell from 157.62 to a session trough of 156.85 within a small timeframe – largely thanks to narrowing yield differentials. Some may view this move as a bit outsized, given that there is currently no progress to peace at this stage. However, it points out that the mood is a bit more constructive heading into the UN General Assembly, where the Iranian President is set to make an appearance. No sideline meetings are currently expected between the US and Iran, however, the US and Gulf leaders will meet. Any positive mood music following that meeting will no doubt put another bout of pressure on the USD. Fixed Income A bearish start for fixed income, amid initial crude strength and a modest reversal of some of Monday’s action. Gilts underperformed modestly in early-trade, given the unwelcome borrowing data for the UK vs both market and OBR consensus. However, this action, of circa. 30 ticks lower in Bunds, five in USTs and over 40 in Gilts gave way to a geopolitical/energy-induced move higher and into the green. After a Kyodo source outlined that Iran has suggested to the US that it would open Hormuz in one week if the US blockade is lifted, alongside a tone change from the IRGC on negotiating with the US if needed. This lifted USTs to a 106-09+ peak, firmer by just under 10 ticks on the day. Bunds and Gilts followed, to the upside of 23 ticks and just over 30 respectively. However, as the energy move pauses for breath and updates since the two above have, net, been more bullish for crude, this has unwound with fixed income now near-enough unchanged on the day. The day was always headlined by the UN General Assembly, but following the morning reporting, the speeches by US President Trump and Iranian President Pezeshkian tomorrow now draw even greater attention; for any rebuttal of the above, or signs of tangible progress between the sides. That aside, BTPs were disappointed by the 2025 deficit/GDP revision, which remained above the key 3.0% mark that determines the EU’s EDP system. As such, we now look to see if Italian Finance Minister Giorgetti moves forward with using the Escape Clause or not. For reference, the BTP-Bund 10yr spread remained steady at 90bps at the time. Germany sells EUR 3.735bln vs Exp. 5bln 2.90% 2031 Bobl: b/c 1.21x (prev. 1.56x), average yield 3.28% (prev. 3.09%), retention 25.3% (prev. 22.16%). UK sells GBP 4.75bln 4.625% 2032 Gilt: b/c 3.07x (prev. 3.34x), average yield 4.843% (prev. 4.613%), tail 0.4bps (prev. 0.2bps). Commodities WTI Nov and Brent Dec futures have reversed earlier gains and are now sharply lower following a notable shift in tone from Iran, alongside a report from an Iranian source in Japan's Kyodo. First, the IRGC said that if Iran’s national interests require negotiations alongside war, then it must negotiate; this contrasts with the usual escalatory tone of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. Shortly after the IRGC headline, and adding to the diplomatic mood, Iran reportedly suggested to the US that it could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if Washington lifts its blockade on Iranian ports, reiterating Iran's conditions for Hormuz concessions. The Kyodo report was later corroborated by a Senior Iranian Source who noted that the Iranian delegation is in the US to revive diplomacy with the US. On the supply front, Saudi Arabia has reportedly restarted the East-West oil pipeline to resume crude oil exports from the Yanbu port. Following the above developments, Brent fell from USD 97.70/bbl before the headlines to a USD 93.84/bbl low, while WTI fell from USD 93.14/bbl to a USD 89.40/bbl low. Dutch TTF has followed the broader energy complex lower as the prospect of progress around Hormuz reduces some of the Middle East supply risk premium. The contract has fallen from a EUR 75.22/MWh high to around EUR 72/MWh. Precious metals have trimmed some of their earlier downside as energy prices and global yields fall following the more diplomatic Iranian headlines. Spot gold has recovered from a USD 4,292/oz low to above its 50 DMA (USD 4,316/oz), having earlier reached USD 4,376/oz. Spot silver similarly trades around USD 65.50/oz after falling to a USD 64.57/oz low from a USD 65.81/oz high. Base metals remain firmer, with copper supported by the broader positive global risk tone, while the sharp pullback in energy prices provides some relief to the inflation and growth outlook. COMEX copper trades around USD 6.66/lb, near the upper end of its session range. 3M LME copper trades towards the upper end of a USD 14,703.60-14,790.00/t range. Saudi Arabia restarts the East-West oil pipeline and prepares to resume crude oil exports from Yanbu port later on Tuesday, according to trade sources. Saudi's Aramco has reportedly told Asian refiners that they will be able to pick up oil from Yanbu soon, Bloomberg reported citing sources. Libya's NOC said an armed group closed valve 7 on the Sharara crude pipeline to Zawiya port, causing a sharp drop in output at the Sharara oilfield. It was later reported that the Sharara oil field production fell by more than half to about 127k bpd after an armed group shut the pipeline to the Zawiya export terminal. Russia's oil exports from Black Sea Novorossiysk Port reportedly surged to 650k bpd in September, +50% M/M, sources suggested. Indonesia's nickel hub will cut output as an El Niño-driven drought reduces production. Russia's Agriculture Ministry said its grain procurement planned for 2026-27 at 3mln tonnes, IFX reported. Trade/Tariffs Chinese President Xi's most urgent goal during the summit with US President Trump is extending the trade truce with the US, but he is also expected to discuss Taiwan, Iran and AI, according to FT. USTR will hold a hearing regarding the Section 301 investigation into Germany's pharmaceutical policies today. EU Trade Commissioner Sefcovic is to visit China between October 8th-9th for trade talks. Canada's Trade Minister said the country is making great headway in concluding a free trade agreement with India, while they will continue to have talks with the US. China's MOFCOM announced the adjustment to the "Catalogue for the Administration of Export of Precursor Chemicals to Specific Countries", stating that export permits will be required for the US, Mexico and Canada under new rules. China's MOFCOM said that its Commerce Minister met with the German Auto Industry Association President to discuss bilateral auto cooperation and China-EU trade. MOFCOM said that China is not the root cause of EU trade problems. Geopolitics Russian Kremlin said they are finding alternative routes for their grain and that Ukraine is the reason for the export issues. Discussions with Turkey around the Black Sea have taken place. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov and US Secretary of State Rubio are set to meet on September 23rd, TASS reported. Russian Defence Ministry said Russian forces struck an oil refinery in Ukraine’s Kremenchuk, TASS reported. Ukraine's Naftogaz said that the Russian attack caused critical damage, which makes it effectively impossible to restore it. Polish Army said it commenced military aviation operations in Polish airspace following a Russian aerial attack on Ukraine, although it later announced that military aviation operations in Polish airspace concluded and there was no violation of Polish airspace observed. The US will reopen a military base in southern Greenland and establish presence at a second site in eastern Greenland, according to sources. Event Calendar DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Markets have put in a strong performance over the last 24 hours, with Brent crude oil (-3.40%) briefly falling beneath $100/bbl again as hopes grew for a diplomatic solution in the Middle East. Brent is a little above $101/bbl this morning but net net the week has started more optimistically. This has been highlighted by the record high for the Nasdaq (+2.26%), Bitcoin moving back above $85,000 for the first time since January, whilst the 10yr bund yield (-6.3bps) had its biggest daily decline since May. And despite September’s reputation as one of the worst of the year for markets, the latest moves actually leave the S&P 500 (+1.49%) back in positive territory for the month and within half a percent of its all-time high. Although oil is back up a little overnight, Brent fell back beneath $100/bbl yesterday for the first time in nine trading sessions before closing at $100.34/bbl. In part, that followed more positive headlines over the weekend, including comments from President Trump to Fox News that he would be open to meeting Iran’s President at the UN this week. So that raised hopes about some kind of deal between the two sides, and it helped drive a big reduction in energy prices across the board. In fact, European natural gas futures (-7.88%) saw their biggest daily decline since July, which was a huge positive impulse to risk appetite given Europe’s dependence on imported energy. Even though there are hopes of diplomatic progress, the rise back in oil overnight seems to be in part due to Bessent suggesting that all Iranian airlines will be shut down from tomorrow with anyone providing fuel, landing services etc., shut out of the dollar system. For now the momentum is on the more positive side though and with inflation fears subsiding again, that meant investors dialled back the likelihood of rapid rate hikes, even if plenty are still priced in for the month ahead. For instance, markets are still fully pricing in another ECB hike by year-end, but the probability of a second hike this year fell from 52% on Friday to 40% by the close. The read across from the energy pullback to Fed repricing wasn’t as clear, with 33bps of Fed hikes still priced by year end. That came amid some hawkish-leaning commentary from regional Fed presidents, with Goolsbee suggesting there was some “traditional demand overheating” around the AI investment boom, while Musalem said that the current fed funds rate of 3.75% to 4% is “on the accommodative side”. Notwithstanding the hawkish Fedspeak, lower energy prices proved to be a huge tailwind for sovereign bonds, particularly in Europe. So yields came down across the continent, with those on 10yr bunds (-6.3bps), OATs (-9.3bps) and BTPs (-9.6bps) all seeing sharp declines. In fact, in all three cases that was their biggest decline since May. In the US, the declines weren’t quite as big, with the 10yr Treasury yield down -4.5bps to 4.95% while the 2yr yield actually inched up +0.3bps to 4.75%. That brought the Treasury 2s10s slope to its flattest since February 2025, just before Trump’s tariff escalation raised questions about the sustainability of US exorbitant privilege. For equities, it was also a very strong session, as fresh optimism on the outlook led to big gains across the major indices. In the US, the S&P 500 (+1.43%) rose for a third consecutive session and had its best day in seven weeks, leaving the index just -0.44% beneath its record high from last month. Tech stocks led the rally, with the Nasdaq (+2.26%) and the Magnificent 7 (+3.44%) rising to new record highs of the own. Top performers included Meta (+11.43%), amid optimism over its Muse AI agent, and chipmaker AMD (+9.95%), which became the latest company to reach a $1trn valuation. Meanwhile, there were broad gains in Europe, where the STOXX 600 (+1.02%), the DAX (+1.07%) and the CAC 40 (+0.92%) all climbed. Speaking of geopolitical developments, there were plenty of headlines on the US-China trade talks yesterday, ahead of the meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi later this week. For markets, the big question is what’s going to happen when the current one-year trade truce expires in November, and whilst the general tone remains positive, there still isn’t an agreement yet. For instance, the New York Times reported yesterday that the US had proposed a 6-month extension, whilst China had pushed for a longer one. So that fitted with comments from US Trade Representative Greer on Bloomberg, who was asked if it would be a 3-6 month extension, and he said “that’s probably the right kind of range”. Otherwise he sounded positive though, saying that “we’ll continue talking and I think both sides want it”. Ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting, our geopolitical analysts, economists and strategists are hosting a China macro webinar at 9am LDN today. You can register here. Otherwise, the big political news came from Germany yesterday, where there was plenty of reaction after Sunday’s state election results. As a reminder, that vote saw Chancellor Merz’s CDU party fail to meet the 5% threshold in the state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, meaning they’re not in the regional parliament for the first time in Germany’s post-war history. Yet despite the speculation over Merz’s position, he said that he had the backing of CDU party leaders, and that both the CDU and SPD wanted the governing coalition to continue. Asian equity markets are broadly higher this morning, led by technology stocks as an overnight rally on Wall Street reignited investor appetite for AI-related stocks. Across the region, the KOSPI (+0.69%) is leading gains, while Japanese markets remain closed through Wednesday. Elsewhere, China’s CSI 300 (+0.51%) is trading moderately higher, with the Shanghai Composite (+0.23%) and Hang Seng (+0.33%) posting modest advances. Meanwhile, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (+0.29%) is also edging higher. US equity futures are fairly flat. Looking at the day ahead now, data releases include the UK public finances for August, the European Commission’s preliminary consumer confidence reading for the Euro Area in September, and the US Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index for September. Otherwise from central banks, we’ll hear from Fed’s Vice Chair Jefferson, the Fed’s Williams and Barkin, ECB President Lagarde, and the ECB’s Kaasik, Nagel, Kocher, Seijpen and Simkus. Tyler Durden Tue, 09/22/2026 - 08:39