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Conflict Events Archive
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International Day Of Peace 2026: Global Conflicts Status Check
International Day Of Peace 2026: Tracking Active Global Conflicts - A Status Check From Ukraine and Gaza to Sudan, Myanmar and the Sahel, conflicts remain active in 2026. Here is a snapshot of major wars, humanitarian crises and peace efforts worldwide. Got Question about the News? International Day of Peace is observed every year on September 21. The United Nations established the day in 1981, and in 2001 the General Assembly designated September 21 as a permanent annual date and a period of non-violence and ceasefire. In 2026, the UN is marking the day under the theme “Invest in Peace — For Everyone, Everywhere, Every Day." The campaign highlights people working for peace at the community level while calling attention to diplomacy, dialogue, negotiation and peacekeeping. Recommended Stories - She Was There When Parliament Opened, And When It Closed: You Were Made For Big Things, Payal Mehta - BCCI Fully Backed Ajit Agarkar’s Bold Overhaul Following Virat Kohli, Rohit Sharma Exits - ‘We Won't Attack US Ships’: Iran-Backed Houthis Send Message To Trump, Warn Saudi Allies - World Alzheimer’s Day 2026: Early Symptoms, Prevention And New Research The backdrop is a world where armed conflict remains widespread. The International Committee of the Red Cross says its work currently spans more than 100 armed conflicts, while the Council on Foreign Relations’ Global Conflict Tracker lists 27 conflicts across categories including civil wars, interstate wars, terrorism, political instability and territorial disputes. There is no single universally accepted number of “active conflicts", because organisations use different definitions and thresholds. The status check below therefore focuses on major conflicts and crises that remain significant in terms of fighting, civilian harm, displacement or international security. Ukraine: War Continues Despite Diplomatic Efforts Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, launched in February 2022, remains one of the world’s major interstate wars. As of September 2026, fighting continues and diplomatic efforts have not produced a lasting ceasefire. The Council on Foreign Relations describes the conflict as unchanging in its September 1 update, noting continued Russian attacks and Ukrainian long-range strikes. Read More: Drone Attack Sends Moscow Airports Into Chaos, Over 400 Flights Delayed The civilian toll remains significant. UN human rights monitors reported that at least 372 civilians were killed and 2,349 injured in Ukraine in August 2026. They also said civilian casualties in the first eight months of 2026 had already exceeded the total recorded during all of 2025. Long-range missiles and drones remained a major source of civilian casualties, including in cities away from the immediate frontline. Status: Fighting continues; negotiations remain unresolved. What to watch: Battlefield developments, ceasefire proposals, territorial questions, security guarantees and the position of European and US governments. Gaza and the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: Ceasefire Has Not Ended Violence The Gaza conflict remains one of the most closely watched crises in the world. The situation is particularly complex because an October 2025 ceasefire changed the military and political landscape, but did not eliminate violence or humanitarian needs. The Council on Foreign Relations continues to classify the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as unchanging. UN humanitarian officials said in September 2026 that most of Gaza’s population remained displaced and that ongoing airstrikes and hostilities continued to cause civilian casualties and damage infrastructure. Humanitarian organisations also continued to face restrictions and funding shortages. The UN human rights office separately reported civilian deaths in Israeli attacks during late August and early September and stressed that international humanitarian and human rights law obligations continue to apply. Status: Ceasefire arrangements have not eliminated hostilities or the humanitarian crisis. What to watch: Security arrangements in Gaza, humanitarian access, governance, reconstruction, Israeli-Palestinian political negotiations and regional diplomacy. Iran and the Wider Middle East: Conflict Has Broadened the Risk The Middle East’s security picture in 2026 extends beyond Gaza. The Council on Foreign Relations’ September conflict dashboard lists the conflict with Iran as worsening, alongside continuing conflicts involving Yemen and the Red Sea and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Recent fighting has also raised concerns about shipping, energy supplies and wider regional escalation. Reuters reported on September 20 that world leaders were returning to the UN General Assembly amid wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, while the conflict involving Iran and Houthi activity was affecting regional stability and oil shipping. For India, developments in the region have a direct economic dimension. India is heavily dependent on imported crude oil. The Indian Express reported in September that India imports more than 88% of its crude requirement and that renewed West Asian conflict had pushed Brent crude above $100 a barrel. Status: Multiple interconnected conflicts and security crises remain active. What to watch: Regional escalation, energy prices, shipping routes, the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea security. Sudan: A War With a Huge Humanitarian Cost Sudan’s war between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces remains one of the world’s largest humanitarian emergencies. The UN said in July that the war had continued unabated through the end of 2025, with civilian deaths increasing, health services severely disrupted and millions of children affected. The humanitarian emergency remains severe in September 2026. In a September 18 UN briefing, the International Organization for Migration said 8.6 million people remained internally displaced, while 4.9 million returnees were also recorded. It warned that a key emergency relief supply pipeline could run out within weeks without additional funding. The conflict has also contributed to food insecurity, displacement and disruption of essential services. Status: Active war with a severe and continuing humanitarian emergency. What to watch: Fighting around key cities and regions, humanitarian access, displacement and diplomatic efforts to establish a durable ceasefire. Myanmar: Civil War and Displacement Continue Myanmar’s conflict remains active several years after the military seized power in February 2021. The conflict involves the military, established ethnic armed organisations and newer resistance groups, with fighting occurring across multiple parts of the country. UNICEF reported in September 2026 that Myanmar’s humanitarian situation had continued to deteriorate during the first half of the year. It estimated that 16.2 million people, including 4.9 million children, required humanitarian assistance, while nearly 3.8 million people were internally displaced as of June. Landmine incidents, displacement and protection risks have also continued to increase. The conflict is therefore not simply a political crisis in the capital; it has become a prolonged humanitarian and territorial conflict affecting communities across the country. Status: Prolonged civil war and humanitarian crisis. What to watch: Territorial shifts, armed-group coordination, humanitarian access and political negotiations. Democratic Republic of Congo: Fighting Persists Despite Peace Efforts Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo continues to face armed conflict involving the M23 movement and government forces, alongside other armed groups. The Council on Foreign Relations currently classifies the DRC conflict as worsening. It reports that M23 continues to hold significant territory in the east despite a US-brokered peace agreement and Qatar-mediated talks. Diplomatic activity has continued. Congolese and Rwandan officials were scheduled to meet in Geneva in September for another round of security talks, even as fighting continued between the Congolese army and M23 in North and South Kivu. The conflict also has a major displacement dimension, with more than seven million people displaced according to the CFR’s tracker. Status: Fighting continues alongside diplomatic efforts. What to watch: Implementation of peace agreements, M23 territorial control, Rwanda-DRC relations and humanitarian access. The Sahel: Militant Violence Remains a Major Security Challenge The Sahel continues to face armed violence involving militant groups, state forces and local armed actors. Recent reporting based on Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) data indicates that violence linked to al-Qaida and Islamic State affiliates has risen sharply in parts of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger in 2026. The security environment is complicated by political instability, weak state presence in some areas, displacement and economic pressures. The conflict landscape is also different from a conventional war between two clearly defined armies. Violence can involve insurgent attacks, communal clashes, military operations and competition for territorial control. Status: Persistent and, in parts of the region, intensifying militant violence. What to watch: Jihadist territorial expansion, state military responses, civilian displacement and regional cooperation. Afghanistan-Pakistan: Cross-Border Tensions Remain Conflict and instability involving Afghanistan and Pakistan have also become part of the region’s security picture. The Council on Foreign Relations classifies the Afghanistan-Pakistan conflict as unchanging. It describes tensions centred on cross-border militancy, particularly allegations by Pakistan that Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan fighters operate from Afghan territory, an accusation the Taliban government denies. The dispute has included cross-border military strikes and retaliatory action. For South Asia, the situation matters beyond the immediate border because prolonged instability can affect regional security, migration and counterterrorism cooperation. Status: Persistent cross-border conflict and militancy. What to watch: Border incidents, militant activity, diplomatic engagement and the security situation along the Durand Line. Haiti and Other Conflicts Often Missing From the Headlines Global conflict coverage can sometimes concentrate on Ukraine and the Middle East while other crises receive less international attention. The CFR tracker, for example, lists criminal violence in Haiti as worsening, alongside conflicts and instability in Mexico, Venezuela and the Northern Triangle. These crises do not all fit neatly into the traditional definition of an interstate war. Some involve organised criminal groups, political instability or armed territorial competition. That distinction matters when counting conflicts: the number changes considerably depending on whether researchers count only formal wars or also criminal violence, insurgencies, political instability and other forms of organised armed violence. What Does All This Mean for India? Global conflicts can affect India even when Indian territory is not directly involved. Energy West Asian instability can affect crude oil prices and shipping costs. India imports the overwhelming majority of its crude requirement, making international energy disruptions economically significant. Shipping The Red Sea, Gulf of Aden and other maritime routes are strategically important for Indian trade. India’s Permanent Mission to the UN said in September that disruptions to major maritime routes can raise freight and insurance costs and affect energy and food supplies. India also said its maritime security operations in the Gulf of Aden and Red Sea had helped ensure safe transit for more than 449 merchant vessels carrying nearly 20.3 million metric tonnes of cargo and oil as of September 14, 2026. Indian citizens abroad Conflicts can also create evacuation and consular challenges when Indian citizens live, work or travel in affected regions. The size of the Indian diaspora means developments in the Gulf and other conflict-affected areas can have a direct human dimension for Indian families. Food and inflation Wars can disrupt shipping, energy markets, fertiliser supplies, agricultural production and commodity prices. These effects can travel across borders even when a conflict is thousands of kilometres from India. Diplomacy India’s relationships with major powers and its role in international institutions mean that wars in Europe, West Asia, Africa and Asia can influence its diplomatic choices, energy strategy and participation in multilateral discussions. Why Counting the World’s Conflicts Is Complicated There is no single number that can answer the question: “How many wars are happening right now?" Different databases use different definitions. The ICRC says it operates in more than 100 armed conflicts. The CFR’s Global Conflict Tracker, meanwhile, currently tracks 27 conflicts and includes categories ranging from interstate war and civil war to terrorism, criminal violence and political instability. ACLED’s conflict research similarly captures a broad range of political violence and conflict events. Its current index identifies Ukraine and Palestine among the largest contributors to violence while also highlighting Myanmar, Sudan and several countries affected by organised violence. Therefore, a status check should be understood as a snapshot of selected major conflicts, not a complete global census of every armed confrontation. International Day of Peace 2026: What the UN Is Calling For The UN’s 2026 theme, “Invest in Peace — For Everyone, Everywhere, Every Day," focuses not only on ending wars but also on the everyday work that makes peaceful societies possible. The UN highlights diplomacy, dialogue, negotiation, peacekeeping, human rights, social protection, health, education and inclusive communities as elements of peacebuilding. UN Secretary-General António Guterres has also said that conflicts are growing in scale and complexity while dialogue and solidarity are struggling to keep pace. That makes this year’s International Day of Peace less about a simple tally of wars and more about understanding what keeps conflicts going, who bears their costs and what mechanisms are available to reduce violence. On International Day of Peace 2026, the global picture remains fragmented. Ukraine’s war continues; Gaza remains affected by hostilities and humanitarian distress; Sudan and Myanmar face prolonged conflicts and displacement; eastern DRC remains unstable; and violence persists across parts of the Sahel and other regions. At the same time, the picture is not simply one of war without diplomacy. Ceasefire efforts, negotiations, peacekeeping, humanitarian operations and local peacebuilding initiatives continue in different forms. The UN’s 2026 message is therefore centred on investment in peace, not only when governments sit across negotiating tables, but also through the institutions, communities and people working every day to prevent violence and rebuild trust. Quick Answers In 2026, the United Nations is marking the International Day of Peace under the theme “Invest in Peace — For Everyone, Everywhere, Every Day.” This campaign highlights individuals working for peace at the community level while emphasizing diplomacy, dialogue, negotiation, and peacekeeping.
Iran says conveyed conditions to US for reopening Hormuz
TEHRAN, Sept 21 — Iran’s top negotiator said today that Tehran had conveyed to Washington through mediators its conditions for ending its blockade of the strategic Strait of Hormuz. The two foes are locked in a stalemate, months into the conflict that began with US-Israeli strikes on Iran in late February. Tehran has maintained a stranglehold on the strait, a vital shipping route for the world’s oil and gas, while Washington is pushing its own campaign to choke the Islamic republic’s ports and economy. “Our messages and the explanation of our conditions have been clearly conveyed to the other party through mediators,” said Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who has acted as chief negotiator in talks to end the war. “As long as the conditions are not met… and the US commitments are not honoured, it will be impossible to return to the situation from before the negotiations and to an open strait,” he added, according to state television. Mohsen Rezaei, the head of Iran’s supreme national security council, had said on Saturday that the Islamic republic had conveyed its conditions to the US via mediator Qatar. “Our conditions are an end to the war on all fronts, the release of our frozen funds and an end to the naval blockade,” he said, in an interview with Al Jazeera. He warned that the US would face an Iran that was better prepared than at the start of the war. “We will confront America with greater force, and with more numerous and more painful strikes,” he said, singling out US bases and US commercial interests in the region as targets for an Iranian military and economic response to any US strike. “We are prepared for a decisive war.” The Iranian security chief said in the interview that Iran had increased the speed of its hypersonic missiles “from Mach 6 to Mach 10”, as well as improved its air defences and developed “electronic warfare systems”. “Therefore should war break out again, US ships, unless they withdraw from the Indian Ocean, will be subject to attack,” he said. Iranian authorities have said that mediator Pakistan’s Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi will travel to Tehran on Sunday for talks. Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya central military command, meanwhile, issued a threat against the United States on Sunday, in a statement carried by state television. “We warn that if the US makes a mistake in dealing with Islamic Iran, all of that country’s bases and interests in the region will become the target of continuous, effective and painful attacks, without any limit or restraint,” it said. — AFP
Ukraine war briefing: Russia to ‘intensify’ attacks on Kyiv after Moscow hit with mass drone strikes
- Russia has vowed to “intensify” its strikes on Kyiv while accusing Ukraine of attempting to “disrupt” Russian elections after Ukraine fired waves of drones at the Moscow region on the final day of voting, killing at least two people. “In response to the Kyiv regime’s attacks on civilian targets within Russia, the Russian army will continue and intensify its high-accuracy strikes against military targets in Kyiv,” the Russian defence ministry said. - The attack was the largest on Moscow since the Kremlin launched its Ukraine offensive in 2022 and involved about 1,600 drones, 450 of which were aimed directly at the capital, Moscow mayor Sergei Sobyanin said. Images showed a gaping hole in a multi-storey apartment building on the outskirts of Moscow. Another showed black smoke pouring from what appeared to be an oil refinery. - Volodymyr Zelenskyy praised Ukraine’s attacks, saying: “Our long-range responses had a very significant impact in the Moscow region last night.” The Ukrainian presidient said that among the weapons used in the attack was the Pelican, initially thought to be a short-range ballistic missile, but which sources said later was a winged drone. Zelenskyy said also Ukraine had used its domestically produced Flamingo cruise missiles to strike Moscow. The long-range weapon has previously been used against targets deep inside Russia. - Preliminary results from Russia’s election, released by the country’s election commission early Monday, showed the main Kremlin party dominating the vote. The tightly controlled balloting was virtually devoid of opposition to President Vladimir Putin’s policies and all but certain to cement the Kremlin’s dominance. With about 58% of the precincts counted, United Russia had nearly 58% of the vote for the 225 deputies apportioned by party lists, according to the Central Election Commission. - The balloting included residents of four Ukrainian regions that Moscow illegally annexed after the war began, but still doesn’t fully control, as well as those in Crimea, the Black Sea peninsula that was illegally annexed by Russia in 2014, in what Kyiv denounced as illegal and the European Union described as a “blatant violation of international law”. - Zelenskyy said on Sunday he had spoken with US President Donald Trump and the two agreed to meet in New York for talks that “could change a lot” in terms of finding a resolution to the war with Russia. The two leaders will be in New York this week for the UN General Assembly. “There are ideas for de-escalation steps and for addressing fundamental security issues – energy security, food security, and the protection of human life,” Zelenskyy posted on X. - European intelligence officials have raised the possibility of an imminent Russian test of Nato, Sean Walker writes, with one saying a potential attack could come in a matter of “months, not years”. The warnings come after Poland’s prime minister, Donald Tusk, told parliament that intelligence assessments suggested Russia might launch an attack with drones or missiles on Nato territory in the coming months, as part of efforts to prove that “article 5 is more theoretical than practical”. - Egypt, one of the world’s largest importers of wheat, is diversifying its source of wheat imports towards France and other European suppliers, moving away from Ukraine and Russia where supplies have been disrupted, supply minister Sherif Farouk was quoted as saying on Sunday. The minister’s remarks were quoted by television host Ahmed Moussa and later confirmed by a ministry spokesperson. - An overnight Russian attack on the Kyiv region killed four people, including three children, Kyiv regional authorities said on Sunday. Drone attacks persisted in Kyiv and the surrounding region throughout the day. Drone fragments fell in various districts in the capital. Outside the capital, a mother and her two 3-year-old children were killed in Kyiv region when a Russian drone strike hit a private home, the emergency service said. Kyiv region governor Tymur Tkachenko said a girl died in hospital after a separate drone strike in another district. Tkachenko said the region endured more than a day of hostile attacks over several areas. Ukraine war briefing: Russia to ‘intensify’ attacks on Kyiv after Moscow hit with mass drone strikes At least two killed in Moscow and oil refinery set alight on last day of Russia’s parliamentary elections. What we know on day 1,671 Explore more on these topics
Iran war live: Tehran warns US against new strikes; fighting rages in Yemen
Tehran says it has learned the US may be planning a new round of strikes, warns of retaliation 'without limitations'.
Iran war live: Tehran says world will be ‘astonished’ by its new weapons
Tehran says it has learnt the US may be planning a new round of strikes, warns of retaliation 'without limitations'.
US military says over 1B barrels of oil shipped through Strait of Hormuz under US blockade
The US military’s Central Command (CENTCOM) said Saturday that more than 1 billion barrels of crude oil had transited the Strait of Hormuz in recent months under a US military blockade, Anadolu reports. “CENTCOM forces have supported more than 1 billion barrels of crude oil leaving the Gulf,” Adm. Brad Cooper said in remarks released by the command on US social media platform X. Cooper said US forces have also assisted more than 2,000 commercial vessel transits through the strategic waterway by providing coordinated protection. READ: Iranian body lists 77 vessels for violating Tehran’s Strait of Hormuz protocols He said the primary transit lanes in the strait have been cleared of mines and that thousands of ships have passed through the waterway. At the same time, Cooper said Iran had exported “zero barrels” of oil, attributing the halt to what he called the US “ironclad blockade.” Cooper said the volume of crude oil, cargo, and liquefied natural gas moving through the strait over the past two weeks was higher than at any point during the previous six months. He added that the US is working with countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council, insurers, and shipping companies to further increase traffic through the waterway, one of the world’s key energy transit routes. READ: Pentagon tells Congress Iran operations have cost $43.6B: Reports
France to summon Iran envoy after language centre closure in Tehran
Iran accuses the French language centre of conducting 'illegal acts that violated diplomatic conventions'.
Qatar PM urges Gulf security framework with Iran
Qatar’s PM says, the Gulf won't be the same unless there's a framework ensuring no one is a threat to each other.
Qatar PM describes fallout of US-Israel war on Iran as ‘earthquake’
Speaking before the UN General Assembly, Sheikh Mohammed also announces a key shift in Qatar's investment strategy.
With The Fed Behind Us…
With The Fed Behind Us… By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities With the Fed Behind Us… The 10-year Treasury sold off after the Fed bounced Thursday, only to resume selling, finishing the week just under 5%. Stocks, which seemed to move up and down with Treasuries, decided to move to the beat of their own drum into the close on Friday. Similarly, for the past few weeks, it seems that if you knew oil was up/down, you could predict yields would be up/down. Not on Friday. On this special day we will build on Thursday’s post-FOMC report: Back to Regularly Scheduled Programming. You might be wondering “what makes today special”? Well, for the first time ever, the T-Report has the same access to the White House as CNN, though not quite how we hoped it would happen. The ban definitely seems weird. Not sure what to make of it, and maybe it will be nothing, but it does seem strange at the very least. In Thursday’s report we touched on: Oil and energy prices, which we will focus on more today. Japanese Yen. Support has broken the 155 level solidly (closing at 156.9), which is likely to cause it to weaken further as a lot of people were willing to bet on I Am the House Now Bessent. Compute Build and AI Spend. Increasingly, this is likely to be a focus of this week’s Trump/Xi summit. Space. We need to do more to focus on the opportunities and risks (commercial and national security) for space. Working with some of Academy’s GIG members to more thoroughly assess this, as the national security aspect seems to be gaining more attention. The Houthis and Saudi Arabia Should we be treating what is going on between the Houthis and the Saudis as a subset of the Iran/U.S. war? The Houthis are, after all, a proxy of Iran. The Saudis have been working with the U.S. and the President, so are they merely just an ally? A subset, an extension, or something in its own right? While Iran is likely influencing the Houthis and certainly has given them the tools to cause havoc and mayhem, the Houthis seem to be taking the initiative. Maybe they see the U.S. as distracted with Iran. Maybe they see the U.S. testing the Saudis’ loyalty as an ally. In any case, it seems like they have seen an opportunity and are taking strides to set their agenda in and around the Red Sea. They have seemingly gone out of their way to avoid any attack against U.S. assets. Instead, they are hitting the Saudis where it hurts: their energy industry. And according to reports, that includes jet fuel facilities at the airport. We cautioned about getting excited that the pipeline damage inflicted on the “alternative to the Strait” pipeline would be repaired quickly. One, the damage seemed more extensive than just to the pipeline. Two, and more importantly, there is no evidence that new strikes could be thwarted. It seems like we should start pricing in “disruptions” to the energy complexes that are outside the scope of the U.S./Iran conflict. Will the Saudis be able to defend themselves? Will they “beg” America to get involved more directly? If they do, will the U.S. get involved? Will they try to disrupt traffic through the Red Sea? If so, how much can they do before the U.S. gets involved? I’d ask how much before Europe would get involved, but that seems like it is too unlikely to even think about (they probably should, but it doesn’t seem imminent). Markets seem to only react badly when actual events affecting energy prices occur. Markets seem to react positively to any story, rumor, or hope that is positive. That relationship may need to change… Even My Mother Knows Diesel Prices are High! Usually, by the time my mother knows something is affecting financial markets, it is a pretty good time to fade the trade as it has become totally consensus. I’m not so sure about that this time. Since the war began, we’ve been focused not as much on oil, but more on LNG and Diesel. Both are “tighter” than oil itself. More susceptible to supply chain disruptions. Less flexibility to work around. So rather than “fading” something we’ve argued that people should focus on, we should just embrace that people (including my mother) are now thinking about the dangers of rising diesel prices: for industry, transportation, and agriculture (and maybe the “back up” generators at some data centers). We already busted through the “red circle” that we had in last week’s version of this chart. This is a big deal and has created some chatter about restricting diesel exports from the U.S. As discussed in prior reports, that is not likely to work (even with restrictions, the domestic price isn’t likely to deviate too far from Global Price minus Transportation minus Storage). It is also likely to hurt U.S. companies going forward as customers entering into new contracts need to consider this possibility (plus there are likely to be some legal challenges). Rising diesel prices are high on my list of inflation pressures that are mounting and difficult to control (unless you are in charge of the war efforts). One Path to Victory with Iran Anything could happen. We could all wake up on Monday to find that there is a “deal” that is on the table and close to getting done. We did have an MOU after all (though from day 1, it seemed that although we all saw a written version, there were “unwritten” versions or promises made, that were inconsistent and it seemed like neither side had really listened to what the other side had said or wanted). I won’t discount some sort of “deal” but it seems difficult to believe that it will be one the U.S. can claim as a major victory, if it happens now (given the current news flow surrounding the war). The economic sanctions could pressure Iran into a deal. The blockade has been very successful. Iran seems to be able to “contain” the amount of trade going through the Strait against their interests (some is going through, but Iran is still able to scare many into not trying to run through the Strait). Can the increased focus on sanctions work? Sure, but in a matter of weeks? Hmmmm…I find it difficult to believe that a nation that kills its own citizens on an industrial scale will collapse in weeks, or even a couple of months. They have had experience with evading sanctions for decades, albeit sanctions not being enforced as strictly as they are supposedly being enforced now. It remains unclear how sanctions will work unless the U.S. is willing to go after China (and Turkey) to the full extent of what Bessent has outlined. So far, that doesn’t seem to be happening. It will almost certainly be a discussion point this week for Trump and Xi. Sanctions are helping and might be enough to force a good deal, but that doesn’t seem like a “tomorrow” sort of event. Increasingly, we are being asked about “knocking out” Iran’s infrastructure. Could that happen? Yes, but here is a quick assessment: Anything clearly military focused has already likely been hit and destroyed. That leaves “dual use” facilities. Facilities that have both a military use and a commercial use. Let’s say energy sources close to military facilities that also service communities. Some of these are viable targets as the military usage is enough to justify going after them. Similar for some bridges necessary for moving troops or armaments. But this can be tricky: on a legal and humanitarian level. Global perception, while not necessarily at the top of the admin’s concerns, should still be a concern. This is a possible path for the U.S., but it could be a difficult balancing act of doing enough to force change, without doing too much reputational (or even legal) damage. Taking the Islands that control the Strait: after the midterm elections. One theory that General (ret.) Bellon discussed this week is taking action to secure the islands that control the Strait, culminating possibly with Kharg Island. The rationale is: Wait until after the midterms, because risks to U.S. troops will increase, but it won’t be as politicized as it would be prior to the elections. Prior to the election, IRAN WILL HAVE MORE OPTIONS than after the elections. Basically, if Iran believes the midterms represent a hurdle to Trump, they can take different actions than they can after the midterms have occurred. There is no longer some “deadline” for Trump, giving him more flexibility and changing Iran’s response function. This makes a lot of sense. Sanctions may work to create a deal, but anything resembling a different regime is not likely. Taking the islands that control the Strait, and eventually Kharg Island itself, would cripple their energy industry and demonstrate real weakness on their part. It will be difficult to do without loss of further life, but when so many other options leave us with a “kick the can” option, the President may decide an option that has horrible costs may be better than going through this effort every few years. Signaling the will to do this might be enough to change Iran’s negotiating stance. Taking even one small, relatively insignificant island that is the easiest to defend may also change the calculus for Iran. The U.S. might win not by taking every Island, including Kharg, but the start of turning a threat into reality could be enough. What to watch for: The U.S. moving vessels with top-notch medical facilities into proximity (less than 1 hour by helicopter, say as a guideline) would be a good indication. The military’s commitment to saving each and every life possible, and providing the best care possible, is real. So, they would need to move these vessels that can perform state-of-the-art surgery and operations, close enough to help any soldiers needing aid. Of all the discussions that I’ve heard around a “post-midterm” victory, this path seems reasonable. Maybe the theory would even be that once Iran sees the ships moving in, and knows the President isn’t potentially hamstrung by upcoming midterms, it capitulates and looks for a deal? Maybe a bit optimistic, but it resonates with me. Greenland Deal The President announced a deal. I will reserve comment until we see the terms of the actual deal (so far, as has become the norm, there are all sorts of assertions from a variety of sides, with little documentation). The deal could be a real game changer, as the President implied via Truth Social. It might just be an updated formulation of agreements already in place (never hurts to update something that was written long before the polar ice caps were melting, when computers were the size of a house, and rare earths and critical minerals weren’t required in vast amounts). A win in any case, but how much of a win remains to be seen. And could it have been done without all of the “annex” / “take” Greenland rhetoric? Trump and Xi We will provide a full take on this on Tuesday morning, as we work with the GIG to figure out what is likely the highest priority on both sides. A few months ago, trade, rare earths, and critical minerals would have been high on that list. A few weeks ago, Iran and global energy had to be high on that list. Now, cyber, AI, and compute have to be highest on the list. At first blush, on most of these issues, the U.S. seems to need more from China than they need from the U.S. Never a great way to enter into a summit with China, but we will delve deeper on Tuesday. Bottom Line I’m running out of time in Vermont, and it might be nicer to spend it outside rather than at my laptop (and the Wi-Fi is spotty at best). Diesel and the Middle East are key to rates. For now, I think the path for energy prices (and stocks) and rates (globally) is higher. The news flow has not been positive this weekend, and it is difficult to see that changing quickly as Trump seems to be focused on dealing with Iran from a “stronger” position after the midterms (not stronger in terms of having the support of the House and the Senate, stronger because the perception that he has a deadline is gone). For compute, Cheap Chinese Compute remains a concern. It is difficult to get all “warm and fuzzy” about the outcome of this summit for markets. More choppiness seems to be the order of the day, with a bias to the downside for me on the compute spend story (though good for their credit spreads). We get to bookend this week with a Monday morning appearance on CNBC and Friday morning on Bloomberg to analyze the results of the summit! Should be another interesting week that we all have to navigate. Even with the Fed behind us, we will be paying attention to the data that may determine the next move for the Fed, but Iran, the Houthis, diesel, rates, and the summit are all going to move markets (hopefully in accordance with how we are recommending positioning). Tyler Durden Sun, 09/20/2026 - 15:30
CENTCOM: Over 1 Billion Crude Oil Barrels Crossed Strait of Hormuz
The United States is working to secure navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, as talks between Washington and Tehran remain stalled and the war is in its seventh month. US Central Command (CENTCOM) commander Adm. Brad Cooper said on Saturday that the US military is continuously working to keep the Strait of Hormuz open and secure, adding that US forces supported the transport of over 1 billion crude oil barrels through the Strait of Hormuz “in the last couple of months” despite an ongoing exchange of strikes with Iran. “We’ve reached this significant milestone while assisting over 2000 commercial ship transits through the Strait by providing coordinated protection. Clearly momentum is building,” Cooper said in a video posted on social media. “Thousands of ships have passed through the Strait. Over 1 billion barrels of crude have been shipped from Gulf partners through the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran has exported zero barrels thanks to our ironclad blockade,” he continued. The US commander said CENTCOM is working with regional partners, along with insurance and shipping companies, to increase commercial traffic through the waterway. “We're also working with every partner in the region, enhancing their air defense, forming a new coalition attack drone unit, and keeping the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waters open and clear,” Cooper said. His comments came as the United States and Iran remain locked in a military conflict following the collapse of both the April and June 2026 ceasefire agreements. The US re-imposed its blockade of Iran's shipping and ports on July 13 in an attempt to cut off oil sales — Tehran's primary source of hard currency — compounding earlier losses from wartime strikes on its energy infrastructure. Iranian-Pakistani Talks Amid growing concerns over the safety of oil supply routes, Pakistan has recently intensified its contacts with Tehran on regional developments. Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar and his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi discussed regional developments over the phone on Saturday. Dar emphasized the importance of “uninterrupted energy supplies and the safe and expeditious passage of ships,” particularly given their impact on developing countries and global supply chains, according to a Pakistani Foreign Ministry statement. He stressed that dialogue and diplomacy remain the “only viable means” of ensuring peace and stability in the region. The two sides agreed to maintain close cooperation and meet in New York on the sidelines of the 81st UN General Assembly next week. On Friday, The Financial Times said Pakistan’s army chief has urged Iran to try to rein in Houthi escalation in the region. Field Marshal Asim Munir travelled to Tehran last month to meet Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian and other political leaders and has held multiple phone calls with Araghchi — most recently on Thursday, according to Iranian news agency IRNA. South Korea Does Not Object Meanwhile, South Korea’s presidential office said Saturday that President Lee Jae Myung’s earlier remarks ruling out troop deployments that could involve the country in a war, did not amount to a “refusal of US President Donald Trump’s request for Seoul to send forces” to the strategic Strait of Hormuz, according to the Yonhap news agency. Myung said on Friday he would not deploy military assets to the Middle East in a way that could draw the country into conflict, but Seoul was reviewing whether to play a greater role in safeguarding navigation in the region. According to The New York Times, Myung pushed back against pressure from the Trump administration when he declared that his country would not deploy troops or military assets to support the US-led war against Iran. “Lee did not turn down Trump’s request for South Korea’s cooperation on Middle East-related issues during yesterday’s press conference,” the Yonhap news agency reported on Saturday, citing a presidential official who spoke to reporters on condition of anonymity. The official said the government was reviewing “practical ways to contribute” in close coordination with the international community. Seoul will continue to examine concrete options under its stated principle of not intervening in wars or combat, the official added. Trump’s Major Decision In Washington, US President Donald Trump has again raised the possibility of a major new military escalation against Iran while keeping the door open to negotiations. Trump told Axios on Thursday that he was approaching a major decision over whether to restart large-scale attacks against Iran, asking whether he wanted to “go in and annihilate” the Iranian regime. Trump on Wednesday said he hoped an end to the war against Iran was near. But US officials warned that the conflict had entered an “unsustainable stalemate that is neither full-scale war nor stable peace.”
Gaza artists honour Macklemore for supporting Palestine
Artists in Gaza are painting murals on destroyed walls, honouring US rapper Macklemore for his support for Palestine.
Jerusalem Daily: Israel pardons soldier Elor Azaria
Jerusalem Daily: Israel pardons soldier Elor Azaria
Hamas Issues Warning on Gaza: Urgent Call to Mediators as Winter Approaches
Hamas Issues Warning on Gaza: Urgent Call to Mediators as Winter Approaches (machine-translated headline from a Turkish-language source)
Hundreds protest in Tunisia for release of jailed Gaza flotilla activists
Hundreds of Tunisians have protested in Tunis, demanding the release of four Global Sumud Flotilla activists.
State Dept. issues alert to U.S. citizens across the Middle East as tensions rise
U.S. State Department is seen on Nov. 29, 2010. (Nicholas Kamm/Getty Images) President Donald Trump cut short a weekend stay at Camp David and returned to the White House on Saturday evening, hours after the State Department issued a security alert warning that escalating hostilities in the Middle East could worsen rapidly. Trump arrived at the Ellipse aboard Marine One shortly before 8 p.m., according to the White House press pool. His public schedule had called for him to remain at Camp David until Sunday. War Secretary Pete Hegseth, who visited Texas A&M University Saturday and attended the Aggies' football game against Kentucky, also returned to Washington early. The White House did not immediately explain Trump's early return, which came as the State Department renewed a broad travel warning for Americans in or traveling to the Middle East following renewed attacks by Iranian-backed Houthi rebels against Saudi Arabia. At least 11 U.S. embassies in the region also issued warnings about possible travel disruptions, according to The Associated Press. "Due to tensions in the Middle East, the security environment remains complex with the potential for unforeseen escalation," the State Department said in its statement, posted to X on Saturday. The department warned Americans in the region to exercise heightened vigilance and prepare for possible flight cancellations, airspace closures, and other travel disruptions. The advisory did not urge Americans to leave the region. "Iranian-supported Houthis have engaged in hostilities against Saudi Arabia, including civilian airports," the alert said. "This military conflict has the potential to escalate rapidly." Americans outside the Middle East were urged to "seriously reconsider travel to and through the region," while those traveling there were advised to closely monitor airport and airline operations. The State Department also said the potential threat extended beyond the Middle East, noting that U.S. diplomatic facilities had been targeted. "Iran and groups supportive of Iran may target other U.S. interests overseas or at locations associated with the United States and Americans throughout the world, including U.S. businesses and other institutions," the alert said. The heightened warning came four days after the State Department updated its travel advisory for Saudi Arabia, which remains at Level 3, "Reconsider Travel." The Sept. 15 advisory cites the risks of Iranian drone and missile attacks against American interests, armed conflict and terrorism. The Saudi advisory says commercial flights remain operational but have faced significant disruptions since hostilities between the United States and Iran began Feb. 28. It also warns that Iranian attacks have targeted cities, infrastructure, airports, military bases, diplomatic facilities, and energy installations throughout Saudi Arabia. The State Department also noted that the Houthis had threatened renewed attacks against Saudi Arabia and warned that falling debris from intercepted missiles and drones posed a risk. Americans living or working near energy infrastructure and military bases could face heightened danger, the advisory said. The warnings followed a Houthi attempt to strike the Saudi capital of Riyadh with a ballistic missile Saturday. Saudi Arabia said the missile was intercepted and no casualties were reported. Houthi military spokesman Brig. Gen. Yahya Saree said the Yemen-based group launched a "large number of ballistic and cruise missiles" and drones at targets in Saudi Arabia, including Riyadh and facilities belonging to state-owned oil giant Saudi Aramco in Yanbu, The Hill reported. The Houthis' claims about attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure could not immediately be independently verified. The attack prompted Riyadh's first air raid alert since renewed Saudi-Houthi fighting began in July, opening another front in the broader Iran war. The U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem also issued a security alert, saying consular services in Jerusalem and at its Tel Aviv branch continued to operate normally while urging Americans to take additional precautions, Israel Hayom reports. The embassy advised U.S. citizens to verify flight status at Ben Gurion and Haifa airports, identify the nearest bomb shelter or safe room, download Israel's Home Front Command app for real-time alerts, and maintain supplies of water, food, and essential medications. Americans were also advised to avoid demonstrations and large gatherings. © 2026 Newsmax. All rights reserved.This article originally appeared on Newsmax at https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/middle-east-donald-trump-pete-hegseth/2026/09/20/id/1270025
The pro-Israel censors are starting to lose
The Macklemore controversy demonstrates that the cost of speaking up for Palestine is diminishing.
What’s behind Iranian authorities’ push for a mass mobilisation campaign?
Iran has launched a major mobilisation drive, sparking fears of renewed conflict with the US.
In a world of wars and climate crisis, a new leader could save the UN. But would Trump allow it? | Steve Bloomfield
If all goes to plan, at some stage in the coming weeks 15 diplomats will emerge from a small sound-proofed room deep in the bowels of the United Nations headquarters in New York and announce the organisation’s next secretary-general. The person they choose will face a combination of challenges unlike any that their predecessors have had to deal with. Two of the security council’s permanent members, the US and Russia, are engaged in wars of choice that have no end in sight. A UN commission of inquiry has accused Israel of committing genocide in Gaza, but the UN has effectively been reduced to the role of bystander, pushed out by Donald Trump’s Board of Peace. The climate crisis is creating a cascade of new humanitarian disasters, while every day now seems to bring a new security threat caused by the unregulated rise of AI. All of this is happening in a world in which the very principles of the UN – multilateralism, a rules-based order and international law – are under threat. Secretary-general elections have rarely been this consequential and conversations about who should win will dominate the sidelines of the UN general assembly this week and next, as world leaders gather for the annual summit. The UN, and the world it speaks for, desperately needs a new leader who is both charismatic and competent. Yet the five permanent members of the security council – the US, UK, France, Russia and China – hold a veto. Anyone who wants the job will need the approval of Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin and, most importantly, Trump. It is not easy to argue you are best placed to save the UN when the man you need to persuade would rather it fails. Three informal straw polls have taken place so far and no frontrunner has emerged, indeed opposition to the two leading candidates rose in last Friday’s vote. For the first time in the organisation’s 80-year history serious discussions are quietly taking place about what would happen if no secretary-general is chosen at all. Ten years ago, the election of António Guterres of Portugal was widely welcomed as a shot in the arm for the UN after a decade of the low-energy leadership of the South Korean Ban Ki-moon. In his previous role as the UN’s refugee chief he had been an outspoken activist and had pledged to continue speaking up for the world’s most vulnerable people. Then, a month later, Trump took office as the US president. Earlier this year, he announced the US’s withdrawal from 31 UN organisations, including the bodies responsible for dealing with climate change and women’s health, while in July his secretary of state, Marco Rubio, announced the administration’s desire to “dismantle” the international criminal court “brick by brick”. The abrupt closure of the US’s aid and development programme, USAID, led to deaths around the world. Most controversially, the establishment of Trump’s Board of Peace sparked fears that it could be used to supplant the UN itself. The UN meanwhile is in the grip of a financial crisis, with Guterres warning during the summer that it faced “imminent financial collapse” due to unpaid dues, much of it owed by the US. And yet, despite everything, the UN is still standing – and still matters. It is only the UN, through its Framework Convention on Climate Change, that manages to focus international attention on the greatest crisis the world is facing. Despite dramatic cuts in funding, there are still 11 peacekeeping missions staffed by more than 50,000 personnel in some of the most dangerous parts of the world. The UN’s office for the coordination of humanitarian affairs remains the best hope for negotiating access to deliver aid in war zones, including Sudan. This year the general assembly passed two landmark resolutions: one recognising the transatlantic slave trade as a crime, another to adopt a new world map that correctly recognises Africa’s size. We don’t know what the candidates think of these decisions, nor do we know where they stand on the war in Ukraine or what their stance is on Israel’s actions in Gaza. Despite the election’s importance – and despite the relatively recent transparency of “vision statements” and hustings – the candidates’ campaigns have been overwhelmingly cautious. Part of the reason, of course, is that someone standing on an ambitious platform would stand no chance of getting the job. UN experts believe there is a chance that the two current frontrunners, Guyana’s former foreign minister Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett and Costa Rica’s ex vice-president Rebeca Grynspan, might become good secretary-generals. But no one is blown away by the choice on offer. For Andy Burnham and Ed Miliband, both of whom will be in New York this week at the UN general assembly, there is a choice to be made. The UK is yet to express a preference, indeed the UK team at the UN is said to be unimpressed with all the candidates. So far, it’s understood, they have not voted in favour of anyone in the first three straw polls. The UK and France are both hoping another candidate will emerge. Whether they will be any better is an open question. The New York Post reported in July that Trump wanted Fifa president Gianni Infantino to get the job. There is next to no chance that would happen, but European diplomats fear a Trump-backed dark horse – possibly one without a diplomatic background – may emerge in the coming weeks. This is, after all, the man who has outsourced his nation’s diplomacy to his son-in-law and a real estate investor. So far, Trump has said nothing in public, although that may change on Tuesday when he gives his speech at the general assembly. Or a social media post spat out at two in the morning could upend the race entirely. The chances of the “Permanent Five” failing to agree on a name remain slim, but plans are already being drawn up in case the worst happens. Guterres may be asked to stay on, while another possibility is that a collection of senior UN officials is asked to serve in administrative roles until a candidate is found. Either way, it would leave the UN rudderless at a time it needs to be anything but. No one is getting this job without Trump’s say so. But once the new general secretary is in office, the US president will have less sway on their actions. They will potentially serve for 10 years, eight of which will be without Trump in the White House. But even without Trump, this will be an almost impossible job. The UN’s financial crisis is not going away. Severe cuts are coming. There will be no easy return to the 1990s and early 2000s, when the UN was at the heart of world events. A new leader will need to reinvent multilateralism in a world where it’s going out of favour. Depending on the choice they make, we could look back at this decision as the moment that the crumbling international rules-based order began to be rebuilt – or when it slid irretrievably into irrelevance. - Steve Bloomfield is the former international editor of the Observer and a previous winner of the Orwell prize
Netanyahu tours tunnels underneath Al-Aqsa Mosque compound
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his wife, Sara, walked through tunnels beneath Al-Aqsa mosque compound.