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Saudi oil tankers turn back as Houthis open new front in U.S.-Iran war | Honolulu Star-Advertiser
Saudi oil tankers turn back as Houthis open new front in U.S.-Iran war DUBAI,UAE >> Two oil tankers carrying Saudi crude to Asia reversed course in the Red Sea today after threats from Yemenâs Iran-aligned Houthis, as a widening Middle East conflict disrupted shipping through two of the worldâs most critical energy chokepoints. U.S. forces bombed targets in the south and west of Iran overnight, while Tehran targeted U.S. sites in Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan and a tanker was hit in the Strait of Hormuz at the mouth of the Gulf. Iran said it had struck infrastructure belonging to Amazon in Bahrain, where the U.S. tech company operates a regional data center. Amazon did not immediately comment and Reuters could not verify the report. The Houthis, who control northern and western Yemen including the coast at the mouth of the Red Sea, announced a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia on Monday, opening a potential new front in the war. In a letter to shippers, they threatened to attack any ships that load or discharge Saudi oil. President Donald Trump said the Houthis had not yet shut the Bab el-Mandeb, the âGate of Tearsâ strait leading into the Red Sea, and threatened to act against them if they did. âSo far it hasnât happened. Might happen, but we take care of things. If something like that happens, we take care of it,â Trump said. Don't miss out on what's happening! Stay in touch with breaking news, as it happens, conveniently in your email inbox. It's FREE! But the Houthi announcement already appeared to be having an impact. Two tankers which had just loaded Saudi crude bound for China and India at Saudi Arabiaâs Red Sea port of Yanbu made U-turns today, heading toward the Suez Canal rather than out through the Bab el-Mandeb into the Indian Ocean. âThe developments represent the first confirmed changes to commercial tanker routing following the (Houthi) embargo and are likely to increase disruption to Saudi crude exports and regional shipping patterns,â British maritime risk management group Vanguard said today. With the war shutting the Strait of Hormuz leading out of the Gulf, the Red Sea has served as the main alternate route out for millions of barrels of Saudi oil per day, diverted by pipeline through Yanbu. Oil prices gained more than 2% today, with Brent crude hovering above $91 a barrel and U.S. gasoline back over $4 a gallon. U.S. Central Command said it had hit Iranian military command centers, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites and air defense systems in its latest round of strikes, which have carried on nightly for more than a week and a half. Explosions were heard around the city of Shiraz in southern Iran, state media said. Konarak and Chabahar on the southern coast, the city of Khorramabad and a civilian site outside the city of Abdanan, both in the west, all came under attack, media reports said. Later the IRNA news agency quoted an official in Khorramabad as saying no enemy attack had taken place there. Fifty civilians have been killed and 500 wounded in the recent U.S. strikes on Iran, a health ministry official said. Washington has reported three U.S. soldiers killed in recent days in the region and says it is punishing Iran for their deaths. RELATED STORY: Soldier with ties to Hawaii killed in Iran attack The United States and Iran have been testing the limits of escalation since the collapse this month of a weeks-old interim deal to halt fighting. Iran launched renewed attacks today across the Gulf, where recent strikes on desalination facilities have raised concerns about shortages in desert countries that depend almost entirely on removing salt from seawater for potable supplies. Kuwait said it was responding to a drone and missile attack this afternoon. Kuwait has reported attacks that have damaged power generation in recent days at plants that also produce fresh water. Sirens sounded in Bahrain where Iranâs Revolutionary Guards said they targeted infrastructure belonging to Amazon, in response to what they described as a U.S. strike on the construction site of a planned Iranian nuclear power plant. Iranian state media reported that Iranian forces also launched attacks on U.S. military barracks in Bahrain and bases in Kuwait and Jordan. The maritime security agency UKMTO said today a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz reported being struck by a projectile, forcing its crew to abandon the vessel and board a lifeboat. Iranâs Revolutionary Guards also said two oil tankers had caught fire after explosions while attempting to transit the southern shipping lane of the strait. Washington has encouraged ships to use the southern lane through the strait. Iran demands they use an alternative northern route near its coast instead, where it eventually aims to charge fees for transit. Just four commodity vessels crossed Hormuz on Monday, mostly using the northern shipping lane near Iranâs coast, down from seven the previous day, Kpler data showed. Throughout the war, Saudi Arabia partially escaped the shipping disruption by piping oil to Yanbu on the Red Sea instead. But a full closure of that alternative route by the Houthis could reduce global oil supply as it would leave most Saudi oil exports trapped. A senior Iranian official told Reuters on Monday that Tehran had received a proposal from mediators for a 10-day ceasefire in efforts to salvage the interim deal, intended to pave the way to a lasting deal to end the war that began on Feb. 28 with U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran. In a sign that diplomacy remains alive, Iranâs Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni visited mediator Pakistan and asked Islamabad to continue its efforts. Trump, hosting the president of Lebanon at the White House for talks on a ceasefire in a parallel war between Israel and Iranâs Lebanese Hezbollah allies, said the Iranians âwant to desperately meet, and until theyâre ready to meet in a meaningful way, we have no interest.â
Iran Sends Warning to Bulgaria Over US Planes at Bezmer Base: âDo Not Become an Accompliceâ - Novinite.com - Sofia News Agency
New Direct Flights Connect Burgas with Polish City Radom Wizz Air has launched a new direct connection between Burgas and Radom, Poland, expanding air links between Bulgariaâs Black Sea coast and one of the countryâs key tourist markets Iran has warned Bulgaria against allowing the United States to use its territory for military operations targeting Tehran, after Sofia moved forward with plans to host American tanker aircraft at the Bezmer airbase. Read more -> Bulgaria: Defense Committee Approves Deployment of 8 US Tanker Aircraft at Bezmer Base Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said that any action enabling US strikes against Iran would amount to involvement in what he described as âaggression and war crimes.â He called on Bulgaria not to become âan accomplice to aggressors and violators of international law,â according to Iranian state media. The warning comes after the Bulgarian government submitted a proposal to the National Assembly seeking approval for the deployment of up to eight US Boeing KC-135 Stratotanker aircraft, their crews, up to 250 American military personnel with personal weapons and ammunition, as well as related airport equipment. The planned deployment is expected to take place at Bezmer airbase between July 24 and October 1, 2026. The request was forwarded to parliament after being approved by the Council of Ministers, while the Defense Committee backed the government proposal with 11 votes in favor, one against and two abstentions. The issue is expected to be discussed in the plenary hall, with the current request differing from the previous deployment of US aircraft to Bulgaria. This time, the stated purpose is support for US operations in the Middle East, rather than NATO exercises, and the aircraft would be stationed at the military facility in Bezmer instead of Sofiaâs civilian airport. Tanker aircraft such as the KC-135 are primarily used to refuel other aircraft during flight, providing logistical support for military operations. The Iranian warning comes amid renewed fighting between Washington and Tehran after a temporary ceasefire agreement collapsed. Both sides have intensified military actions in recent weeks, raising concerns over a possible return to a broader conflict. Bulgarian diplomat Lyubomir Kyuchukov commented that the main difference between the current request and the previous one is that the purpose of the deployment has now been openly stated. âThis time the purpose has been declared openly, while the previous time it was concealed, and it is to provide logistics through the aircraft for strikes on Iran,â Kyuchukov said in an interview with NOVA NEWS. According to him, the situation raises serious questions because the military actions between the United States and Iran are being carried out without a common position from the European Union and NATO. âA very serious question arises, considering that practically no one even disputes that these military actions have nothing to do with international law,â Kyuchukov said, adding that EU member states have been left to make their own decisions regarding cooperation with Washington. He noted that some countries with greater political and economic resources, such as Spain, refused similar requests, while others, including Italy and the United Kingdom, took more cautious positions. Kyuchukov said Bulgaria must also consider its relations with the United States, but stressed that the key issue is the purpose of the aircraftâs presence. âBecause these tanker planes logistically support combat operations, and this is not in the agreement, and that is precisely why this entire issue needs to be addressed to the National Assembly,â he said. The diplomat added that Bulgaria would not formally become a participant in the war through the deployment, but argued that the country would become involved in the broader conflict by taking a position. âBulgaria is not part of the war with this action, but it is part of the conflict, since it has taken a side in it,â Kyuchukov said. He also argued that the confrontation between the United States and Iran had never fully ended despite previous attempts to establish a ceasefire. Bulgariaâs Parliamentary Defense Committee approved the governmentâs proposal to allow the temporary deployment of up to eight US military tanker aircraft and 250 American service members at the Bezmer airbase Defense Minister Dimitar Stoyanov said he has "absolutely no concerns" about the proposed deployment of up to eight US tanker aircraft at the Bezmer airbase Bulgarian President Iliana Yotova visited the 3rd Air Base at Graf Ignatievo, where she reviewed the modernization efforts connected with the arrival of Bulgariaâs new F-16 Block 70 fighter jets Bulgariaâs Transport Minister Georgi Peev addressed the planned deployment of US military aircraft at Bulgariaâs Bezmer airbase, stressing that the presence of American aircraft is based on an existing defense cooperation agreement between the two countri The Greek Parliament has approved a military cooperation agreement with Bulgaria that will allow a Greek military formation to receive support for conducting maritime patrol aviation missions over the Black Sea Bulgariaâs Vrazhdebna and Bezmer military air bases are set to receive upgrades financed through NATO funds, after the government approved additional requirements under the Allianceâs Capability Programme Plan Revealed: How Bulgaria Has Been Arming Ukraine for Four Years Mystery EU Objection Blocks Bulgariaâs First âŹ2 Commemorative Coin
Asian refiners look to Suez Canal to move Saudi oil amid Houthi shipping threats
HOUSTON, July 21 : Asian refiners are seeking to ship crude oil from Saudi Arabia's Red Sea port through the Suez Canal and around Africa after Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis said they would impose a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia. The move marks the latest redirection of oil flows due to the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran that has sharply cut supplies, pushing refiners to seek alternative barrels or undertake different routes. Two oil tankers carrying Saudi crude to Asia reversed course in the Red Sea on Tuesday after threats from the Houthis, while vessel crossings via the Strait of Hormuz dropped further at the start of the week. Shipping west toward Egypt from Saudi Arabia's Red Sea port of Yanbu, and passing through the Suez Canal and rounding the Cape of Good Hope in Africa, will require as much as four additional weeks and raise freight and fuel costs, analysts and industry experts have warned, compared to the typical route of heading east from Yanbu to the Arabian Sea. VESSEL TAKES LONG PATH TO INDIA Liberia-flagged vessel Rodos, which loaded crude oil at Yanbu and headed to India's west coast, was pointing west and signaling the Suez Canal, ship-tracking data via LSEG and Kpler showed on Tuesday. South Korean refiner Hyundai Oilbank was seeking a Very Large Crude Carrier on Tuesday to load oil at Yanbu with the option of using the Suez Canal and Egypt's SUMED pipeline, which links the Red Sea and Mediterranean Sea, to head to South Korea, according to a shipping source. A fully loaded VLCC cannot traverse the Suez Canal due to its draft limit and shippers often lighten the vessel's load on the Red Sea side before entering the canal by moving a portion of the oil on Egypt's SUMED pipeline. The ship picks up the oil on the Mediterranean side after it passes the Suez Canal with a lighter load. Charterers could use the SUMED pipeline and Suez Canal at their discretion, or if the Bab elâMandeb Strait, the southern gateway to the Red Sea, is fully blocked, the shipping source said. The parties would calculate the cost of the deviation later. The Suez Canal and SUMED pipeline are commonly used for shipments from the Red Sea to Europe. "Changing behavior by tankers tells us that they are taking the threats seriously," said Matt Smith, commodity research director at Kpler. He added that the Houthis' disruption comes at a difficult time for Saudi Arabia as its crude and products transiting Bab el-Mandeb climbed to a record last month at over 4 million barrels per day.
Houthis threaten to attack shipping tankers if they use Saudi Arabian ports on Red Sea
Yemenâs Iranian-aligned Houthis have warned shipping companies that their tankers risk being attacked if they use Saudi Arabian ports, as the militia moved quickly to enforce a blockade announced the previous day. The Houthi warning for the Red Sea, coming on top of Iranâs threat to shipping on the other side of the Arabian peninsular in the Gulf, could affect the substantial Saudi oil exports that have so far been unscathed by the months-long conflict and deepen the rapidly escalating crisis in the region. Underlining how seriously the Houthi threat is being taken, two oil tankers which had loaded Saudi crude earlier this week for China and India made U-turns on Tuesday away from Houthi-controlled coast at the mouth of the Red Sea and headed towards the Suez canal. The Houthis claimed six ships had changed course. Donald Trump on Tuesday said the US would âjust have to take care of businessâ if the Houthis followed through on their threats. âYou know, weâve done that with the Houthis before, and we havenât heard from them in a while since we did what we did originally,â he said at White House meeting with the Lebanese president, Joseph Aoun. The Houthi threat came as diplomats sought to salvage the collapsed interim deal between Iran and the US even as both countries continued to launch attacks in a 10th day of renewed fighting, including a visit by the Iranian interior minister, Eskandar Momeni, to Pakistan, an important mediator in the conflict. Sources suggested that behind the scenes there were indications that both sides might be seeking a way out of the latest round of intensive strikes The news site Axios suggested that the Trump administration was weighing whether to escalate the conflict further or to seek a 10-day ceasefire to create the space for a new round of talks. The US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, said Washington remained open to negotiating with Iran but that âit has to be realâ. The Houthis control northern Yemen, including territory along the Bab el-Mandeb, the strait at the southern end of the Red Sea. While the Houthis have not formally announced the closure of the waterway, as some had feared might happen, the militia groupâs threat to vessels using Saudi ports has raised serious questions over the safety of navigating a channel used by 7% of global maritime traffic. Shipping companies were told in an email from the Houthis on Monday that they should not load or discharge cargo at Saudi Arabian ports and such activity may result in being targeted âin any locationâ within its reach. âWe strongly recommend that your company exercise due diligence and the utmost care in all its dealings,â the email said, which was sent to the multiple companies shortly after the Houthis said Monday they were imposing a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia. The significance of the move was underlined by Allison Minor, a Middle East expert at the Atlantic Council thinktank. âThe Houthis have not yet clarified which ships they will target, but their intent to blockade Saudi ports implies that any ship visiting Saudi ports and carrying Saudi oil would be in the crosshairs,â she said. âThe oil currently transiting the strait from the north is going primarily to Asian markets. During their earlier Red Sea campaign, the Houthis cut deals with Russia and China to permit their ships to pass â but the Houthis may be less willing to cut deals with Chinese ships carrying Saudi oil.â Between 2023 and 2025, the Houthis had used small boats, drones and missiles to attack more than a hundred commercial ships and render âthe waters of the twenty-mile-wide strait too risky for most shippers,â she added. While the Houthis have their own agenda relating to their long term hostilities with Riyadh which has at times seen them target Saudi energy facilities with long range attacks, Iran has also has been trying to drag Yemen into a wider aimed at throttling global energy supplies. It has previously pressed the Houthis to close the Bab el-Mandeb if the US continued to attack Iranian power infrastructure and Tehran has made clear it sees threats to maritime traffic around the Bab el-Mandeb as a counterweight to US efforts to block Iran in the strait of Hormuz, demonstrating Iranâs continued room for manoeuvre a week and a half into renewed full-scale hostilities. With 25% of oil and gas shipments passing through the strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb combined, any significant restrictions on traffic would have a major global economic impact. Heavy strikes have meanwhile continued on both sides of the conflict. US militaryâs central command said on Tuesday it had targeted âIranian military command centres, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites and air defence systemsâ. Iranian state media reported that explosions were heard in the provinces of Fars, Hormozgan, Ilam, Kerman, and Sistan and Baluchestan. Tehran also attacked US allies throughout the Middle East. Jordanâs military said Iran had targeted it with five drones and three missiles, all of which were shot down. The Kuwaiti government said Iran had struck desalination and power plants for a fourth straight day on Monday night. Authorities said the attacks sparked fires and caused damage. The US state department has also issued a warning to Americans that âIran and groups supportive of Iran may target other US interests overseas or at locations associated with the United States and Americans throughout the world.â
Iran warns Bulgaria against aiding US military operations
Iranâs foreign ministry spokesman warned Bulgaria on Tuesday against allowing the U.S. to use its territory for military operations against Iran. The Bulgarian government has said it will seek parliamentary approval to station up to eight U.S. tanker aircraft at an air base in the Balkan country, which is a member of NATO and the European Union. Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said any activity that facilitates U.S. attacks on Iran would amount to complicity in what he described as âaggression and war crimesâ, according to Iranian state media. Baghaei urged Bulgaria not to become âan accomplice of aggressors and lawbreakersâ, they said. The tanker aircraft are mainly used for airborne refueling of other aircraft. Bulgariaâs government aims to station the U.S. aircraft at the Bezmer military facility, about 160 miles southeast of the capital Sofia. The U.S. and Iran have intensified strikes since an interim ceasefire deal signed a month ago unraveled, raising the possibility of a return to all-out war.
Houthi blockade threatens Saudi oil export routes â expert
DOHA, July 21. /TASS/. The naval blockade of Saudi Arabia announced by the Houthis of Yemenâs rebel Ansar Allah movement threatens the countryâs energy infrastructure and key alternative routes for Saudi oil exports, Ahmed Nagi, a senior analyst on Yemen at International Crisis Group, a Washington-based think-tank, told TASS. "As disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz increased, Riyadh relied increasingly on the East-West pipeline running to [the port of] Yanbu and the Red Sea," the expert said. If shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is disrupted Saudi Arabia would face increased security costs and reduced flexibility in export shipments, he added. Nagi also pointed out that a simultaneous blockade of the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz would have consequences extending far beyond the country. "It would have a negative impact on global energy supplies and international trade as a whole," he said. On July 20, the Houthis announced a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia, accusing the kingdom of years of plundering Yemenâs national wealth, referring to the countryâs oil resources. On July 21, the Riyadh-led Arab coalition said it had begun taking measures to protect commercial vessels in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Coalition Spokesman Turki al-Maliki stressed that any threat to shipping would be met decisively and forcefully, describing the rebelsâ actions as maritime piracy.
The US military campaign to stop drug trafficking has failed. Itâs time to move on. - Breaking Defense
At a time when the US military is pummeling Iran with airstrikes and President Donald Trump again threatens to destroy Iranian infrastructure if Tehran doesnât re-open the Strait of Hormuz, another war is raging much closer to home. But unlike the confrontation in the Middle East, which remains on the front pages, the ongoing battle in Americaâs own hemisphere is barely raising eyebrows. Last November, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth declared the initiation of Operation Southern Spear, a US military campaign designed to defeat so-called narco-terrorists in the Western Hemisphere. The mission came less than two months after the Pentagon began bombing small boats that were allegedly carrying drugs to the US through the Caribbean Sea and Eastern Pacific Ocean. The United States has since conducted 66 strikes. Aside from reportedly killing an estimated 221 people in the process, some of whom may not actually be smuggling drugs, the mission has not actually succeeded in its core goals. And itâs using up military manpower and munitions at a time when the US is stretched on both. The Trump administration claims the strikes are not only a much-needed reform to the anti-drug policies of the past but a policy change that is hitting Latin Americaâs criminal organizations where it hurts: in their wallets. In June, Trump boasted about a supposed 97 percent decline in sea-bound drug trafficking. The White House points to the ongoing boat strikes as a visible example of the so-called âDonroe Doctrine,â a play on the 1823 Monroe Doctrine, in which US power is wielded aggressively and unapologetically in Americaâs exclusive sphere of influence. But all the happy-talk coming from the Trump administration is just that: talk. The Trump administrationâs claims of counternarcotics success have no basis in fact. While traffickers have indeed been killed and bags of cocaine have no doubt sunk in the waters of the Pacific, the boat strikes are failing in their principal aim: cutting down on the amount of drugs reaching the US-Mexico border. Worse still, by militarizing counternarcotics, Washington runs the risk of making its counternarcotics goals more difficult to achieve and tainting its own reputation in the process. In justifying why waging a literal war against drugs on the high seas is the right policy, Secretary of State Marco Rubio asserted that US Coast Guard-led interdictions in the regionâs waters werenât stopping traffickers from sending their product north. âWhat will stop them,â he said, âis when you blow them up, when you get rid of them.â Yet the United States has been blowing up alleged drug peddlers for the last nine months, and drug trafficking in the Western Hemisphere is still occurring. This is not a surprise to anyone who has an even cursory understanding of how the drug trade operates. Like any other business, drug cartels respond to the rules of supply-and-demand and are constantly searching for the opportunity to grow their share of the market. Because the demand for illegal narcotics is so high in the United States and around the world, traffickers retain a major financial incentive to continue producing. Failing to do so merely leaves room for competitors to corner more of the market thatâs valued in the hundreds of billions of dollars. This is especially true with cocaine, whose global demand is rising. In an ideal world, US strikes would lead traffickers to save their own skins and look for a new line of work. In such a scenario, US law enforcement agencies would register a lower number of drug seizures at US borders and a spike in drug prices inside the United States as the supply dwindles. But as anticipated, drugs continue to flow despite the bombings. According to US Customs and Border Protection, more cocaine was seized by US authorities in the eight months since the boat strikes started compared to the eight months preceding them. Cocaine prices have remained stable across this time frame as well, which suggests there arenât any supply shocks. The market is well stocked. In short, if the US objective is to reduce trafficking, then Washingtonâs own statistics show that Operation Southern Spear is doing absolutely nothing. The Trump administrationâs military-centric anti-drug policy is beyond ineffective â itâs also costly. According to the Pentagonâs Special Inspector General, approximately $527 million was allocated for Operation Southern Spear between January-March 2026, the most recent figures available. Brown University has estimated that, if you go back to Aug 2025 when the buildup in SOUTHCOM began, cost estimates are closer to $5 billion. And that doesnât count any incurred risk from having to shift forces out of other parts of the world to go to SOUTHCOM. While this is a far cry from the more financially-intensive missions the US military is presently conducting â in comparison, the price tag for the war in Iran could reach $100 billion â itâs nevertheless another expense that Pentagon officials need to account for at a time when the 2027 National Defense Authorization Act is stalled and even some Republican lawmakers are increasingly skeptical about appropriating large US defense supplementals without comparable reductions in other areas of the federal budget. Washington has encouraged countries in Latin America to bandwagon with the United States against the cartels and gangs running amok in the region. More often than not, this means enticing regional partners to adopt the US paradigm, where traffickers are treated as terrorists who deserve to be eliminated. Yet drug trafficking is not international terrorism, no matter how many times the White House says otherwise. Mexicoâs cartels may deploy terrorist-like tactics to kill their rivals, cow the population into submission and scare â or buy off â local police forces. But thatâs where the similarities end. Unlike terrorist groups such as Al-Qaeda or ISIS, which seek to subvert governments and kill in the name of a nihilistic political objective, the cartelsâ goal is to cash in and make their business easier to conduct. Why is this important? Because failing to grasp this most basic fact will translate into bad policy. This is playing out in the region today. Many of Latin Americaâs governments increasingly believe they can kill or arrest their way out of the problem. This may make for good headlines and give politicians something to brag about, but over the long-term, more problems are created. One of the most significant is the risk that unilateral US operations in the regionâs waters will alienate traditional partners who donât agree with US policy as a matter of principle or are otherwise concerned that intelligence cooperation with Washington could result in the deaths of innocent people. The United Kingdom, Colombia and the Netherlands have eliminated certain lines of information sharing with the United States on counter-narcotics in order to insulate themselves from being potentially liable for wrongful deaths. And thereâs evidence that wrongful deaths have indeed occurred â the families of two victims killed by American strikes are currently suing the US government for what they allege are violations of both US law and international human rights law. The operational impacts of the boat strikes canât be ignored either. Killing drug traffickers on the high seas eliminates whatever intelligence value those traffickers may hold, including which criminal group theyâre working for, who theyâre taking orders from and where the production is happening. The boat strikes could therefore be making US law enforcementâs job even harder as potential sources and informants are eliminated. Donald Trump isnât the first American president who thought a tough-on-crime approach would compel traffickers to fold up shop. But he is the first to use the US military to test the theory. The results are in: itâs not working. Operation Southern Spear should be cut short. Daniel R. DePetris is a fellow at Defense Priorities.
Goldman Warns Brent Could Top $120 If Gulf Chokepoint Crisis Deepens
Goldman Warns Brent Could Top $120 If Gulf Chokepoint Crisis Deepens Brent crude futures are trading in the low $90s as the Gulf area escalation enters a tenth consecutive day. Iran attacked a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, while two tankers carrying Saudi crude reversed course in the southern Red Sea after warnings from Iran-backed Houthi forces placed another critical maritime chokepoint under threat. For more color on energy markets, Goldman commodities expert Daan Struyven warned clients on Monday that Brent crude futures could surge above $120 a barrel by the fourth quarter if disruptions in the Hormuz maritime chokepoint persist; he noted that such an outcome is not his base case. Struyven sees Brent around $80 in the fourth quarter and $75 next year, assuming US and Iran tensions ease, but warned that risks remained tilted to the upside as Persian Gulf flows fall below 45% of prewar levels and Houthi threats in the southern Red Sea chokepoint. "Escalation in the Middle East and the decline in estimated Persian Gulf flows to below 45% of pre-war levels have pushed oil prices back up," Struyven said. The key upside price risks are: Shipping disruptions in Hormuz--and potentially the Red Sea--as the estimated 5mb/d rise since the start of the war in pipeline flows via Yanbu to the Red Sea, to more than 6mb/d (Exhibit 3), has played a key role in offsetting part of the decline in Hormuz flows. Damage to energy infrastructure from the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine wars. While the Iran war has likely not caused lasting major damage to oil production capacity so far, our analysis of the 5 largest prior supply shocks shows an average 42% hit to production in the affected country after 5 years, often reflecting infrastructure damage, underinvestment, or tight sanctions (Exhibit 4). Struyven noted, "Brent might exceed $120/bbl in 2026Q4 and average $100 in 2027 if Hormuz remains disrupted through 2027 (Exhibit 2, red line). This scenario assumes Gulf output only fully recovers by Dec27, supported by pipeline extensions." Struyven touched on how China's retreat from the crude market has temporarily capped prices, with net seaborne imports falling 4.7 million barrels a day from a year earlier in June. Weaker refinery runs, a 21% drop in retail gasoline volumes and estimated crude destocking of more than 1 million barrels a day drove the decline. He said imports may remain subdued if prices rise, given China's estimated 2 billion barrels of inventories and its ability to substitute coal and electricity for some oil consumption. Struyven recommends clients buy the December 2026 to March 2027 European diesel timespread to hedge persistent Middle East and Russian supply risks. Diesel markets were already tight before the Iran war, while Russian refinery outages, low inventories and seasonal demand could push spreads higher. European diesel is preferred over crude, gasoline and US diesel because of constrained refinery output, less price-sensitive demand and fewer US policy-related risks. According to the latest Bloomberg data, Hormuz traffic is at a near standstill. Analysts at Rystad Energy AS warned in a note that the Houthi threat against crude flows means that Saudi Arabia's Red Sea export route "is now directly in the line of fire." "If a ceasefire does not materialize, and Hormuz remains largely closed while the Houthi threat to Red Sea shipping intensifies, the risk of a significant rebound in oil prices would be substantial," said Rystad analyst Jorge Leon. Henri Patricot, Paris-based energy equity research analyst at UBS, also has an upside scenario for Brent: In the near term, we see the main potential upside risk coming from a breakdown of negotiations and further escalation, pushing oil prices back to ~$100+/bbl. If major oil infrastructure in the region is targeted and the conflict extends beyond the summer, prices could spike to $120+/bbl. This would drive more severe demand destruction, with limited OPEC+ ability to act. While such a price may be short-lived, a structurally higher risk premium could keep prices in the $80s/bbl range and ongoing disruptions would keep it even higher. The big risk now is that Hormuz disruption is unfolding after global oil buffers have already been depleted, with Cushing inventories reportedly near "tank bottoms." That leaves the market with limited capacity to absorb a prolonged supply shock and will likely increase pressure on the Trump administration to revive diplomacy once the US military has sufficiently degraded Tehran's missile and drone capabilities used to threaten commercial shipping through the strait.  Gloal inventories The US national average for regular gasoline breached $4 a gallon on Monday, intensifying pressure on the Trump administration to pursue Gulf diplomacy. Gas prices may go higher... The $4 threshold is both economically and politically sensitive, as it is where lower-income consumers typically begin cutting discretionary purchases and trading down across gas stations, convenience stores and quick-service restaurants, further weighing on consumer sentiment. Professional subscribers can read the full GS note here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal. Tyler Durden Tue, 07/21/2026 - 11:40
Saudi oil tankers bound for India, China reroute after Houthi warning
The vessels â Xin Long Yang, carrying about 2 million barrels of Saudi crude for China, and Rodos, loaded with around 700,000 barrels for India â turned around and headed towards the Suez Canal instead of continuing towards the Bab el-Mandeb Strait off Yemen's coast, according to shipping data cited in the report The change in route points to a potential fresh disruption to a key global energy shipping corridor, adding to concerns over oil supplies after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz during the ongoing conflict in the region. The Houthis on Monday declared a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia and warned shipping companies that loading or discharging cargo at Saudi ports could expose vessels to attack "in any location". With the Strait of Hormuz blocked, Saudi Arabia's Red Sea port of Yanbu has become the kingdom's main alternative export route, allowing millions of barrels of crude to be shipped each day. Reuters, citing three shipping sources said that Yanbu continued to operate, with vessels already in the Red Sea or arriving through the Suez Canal still loading cargo. Another very large crude carrier, New Prime, which was due to load crude at Yanbu later this week, also turned back off the coast of Oman before entering the Red Sea. British maritime security firm Ambrey advised vessels calling at Saudi ports to reconsider transiting the Red Sea and implement enhanced risk mitigation measures, while insurance industry sources told Reuters that war-risk premiums for Saudi ports had risen as risk assessments were being reviewed. If tankers avoid the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and instead transit through the Suez Canal before sailing around Africa to reach Asia, shipments could take several weeks longer, the report said. Fully laden very large crude carriers (VLCCs) using the Suez Canal are also required to offload part of their cargo, which is transported across Egypt through the SUMED pipeline before being reloaded in the Mediterranean. Shipbroker Clarksons said a full Houthi blockade appeared unlikely given the resources required but warned that an escalation in hostilities could lead to attacks on Saudi-linked vessels transiting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. On average, about 10 crude tankers pass through the waterway each day, according to the report. (You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel) (You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel) Explore More Stories
Saudi condemns Houthi blockade: How will the rest of the world be impacted?
Saudi condemns Houthi blockade: How will the rest of the world be impacted? Saudi Arabia has condemned the Houthi naval blockade that could impact oil flow to importers of Saudi oil. Saudi Arabia on Monday condemned allegations by Yemenâs Iran-aligned Houthis that Riyadh was imposing a siege on the Yemeni people, after the group announced it would impose a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia. Amid the disruption in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz during the US-Israel war on Iran, Saudi Arabia was attempting to facilitate oil flow through alternative routes through the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. Now that route is under threat from the Houthis. The Saudi Foreign Ministry said in a statement that it would take âall necessary measuresâ to protect its ships. The Houthis have a track record of disrupting shipping traffic in the Red Sea. Here is a closer look at the blockade and what impact it might have beyond Saudi Arabia. Whatâs the latest on the blockade? The Houthis said on Monday that they would impose a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia, opening a potential new front against the US in its war with Iran and raising the threat to global energy supplies and trade beyond the Gulf. In their statement, the Houthis said the declaration of the maritime embargo was âbased on the equation of âan eye for an eye'â and affirmed âthe right of our great people to respond to the blockade with a blockadeâ and to âall escalation with escalationâ. The Houthis also expressed âcomplete readiness for all optionsâ and warned that âany foolishâ Saudi act would be met with a âcomprehensive and decisiveâ response. âWe call upon the people of our great nation to continue the general mobilisation and general call to arms, and to be fully prepared for all scenarios and developments and to support the fronts with fighters,â the group said. It was not immediately clear how the Houthis would implement the maritime blockade or whether it could signal a return to attacks on international shipping off the Yemeni coast. The Houthis disrupted global commerce when they began attacking ships around the Bab al-Mandeb Strait following the launch of Israelâs genocidal war on Gaza in October 2023. The attacks ended with the announcement of a âceasefireâ in Gaza in October 2025. The Bab al-Mandeb chokepoint connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden is one of the worldâs most important shipping routes, including for oil exports worldwide. Between Yemen to the northeast and Djibouti and Eritrea in the Horn of Africa to the southwest, the strait is just 29km (18 miles) wide at its narrowest point, limiting traffic to two channels for inbound and outbound vessels using the Suez Canal. In 2024, about 4.1 billion barrels of crude oil and refined petroleum products passed through the strait â about five percent of the global total. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed since Israel and the United States launched their war on Iran in late February, shutting down Bab al-Mandeb as well could block 25 percent of the worldâs oil and gas supply. What is the context? The Houthis, who seized Yemenâs capital, Sanaa, in 2014, accused Saudi leaders of imposing âan unjust and oppressive siegeâ for nearly 12 years, âplundering our resources and imposing a comprehensive blockade on our ports and airports by land, sea, and airâ. Yemen has been mired in civil war for more than a decade since the Houthis seized the capital, prompting a Saudi-led military intervention in 2015 in support of the internationally recognised government. The conflict has since evolved into one of the worldâs worst humanitarian crises, leaving the country divided between a Saudi-backed and internationally recognised government in Aden and a Houthi administration in Sanaa. Cargo ships and other vessels have regularly arrived at the port of Houthi-controlled Hodeidah, including in recent weeks, delivering food, fuel and other goods, according to shipping data. Whatâs the latest on the Saudi-Houthi spat? The announcement came days after the Houthis blamed Saudi Arabia for attacking Sanaa airport, despite Yemenâs internationally recognised government claiming responsibility, saying it was to prevent an Iranian plane from landing in the capital. In response, the Houthis fired ballistic missiles at Saudi Arabiaâs Abha International Airport, which the Saudi-led coalition said it successfully intercepted. That followed fighting between Houthi and government forces in Hodeidah, threatening four years of precarious calm since the signing of a temporary truce. âThe Houthis and the Saudis, unfortunately, have not been able to make their ceasefire hold. And itâs gone south pretty quickly. And obviously led to this, this blockade being announced,â Michael Stephens, a senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies, told Al Jazeera. âBut of course, it has to be seen within the context of everything thatâs going on the other side of the Arabian Peninsula, and the war that has now restarted in the Gulf between Iran and the US.â How will this impact Saudi Arabia? The announcement is likely to further hamper Saudi Arabiaâs crucial oil exports. The East-West Pipeline, also known as the Petroline, is operated by Saudi oil giant Aramco. Aramco is one of the worldâs largest companies, with a market capitalisation exceeding $1.7 trillion and annual revenues of $480bn. The oil giant controls 12 percent of global oil production with a capacity of more than 12 million barrels per day (bpd). The 1,200km (745-mile) pipeline runs from the Abqaiq oil processing centre close to the Gulf in Saudi Arabia to the Yanbu port on the Red Sea on the other side of the country. From there, oil tankers ship the oil through Bab al-Mandeb to major Asian markets and elsewhere. Ship tracking data from Kpler and Signal Ocean showed that shipments from Yanbu averaged four million barrels per day in recent weeks, up from around 973,000 bpd a year earlier, according to Reuters. Total petroleum volumes transiting Bab al-Mandeb were 7.4 million bpd in June, or about 7 percent of global oil output, according to Kpler data. That is compared to 4.2 million bpd last year. How will the rest of the world be impacted? In 2024, Saudi Arabia exported $187bn of crude petroleum, making crude petroleum the countryâs biggest export, according to the Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC). In that year, China imported 25.6 percent of this crude petroleum, while South Korea imported 15.8 percent, Japan imported 15.4 percent, and India imported 10.5 percent. Since China and India are major buyers of Saudi crude, their refiners rely on steady Saudi volumes â all of which come through the Bab al-Mandeb. Disruptions mean higher import costs, greater reliance on spot cargoes, and potential pressure on domestic fuel prices and industry. India has also emerged as a key Asian supplier of refined petroleum products to Europe, so any sustained disruption to Saudi flows or Gulf shipping would likely push up the price of oil products exported to European markets. Stephens said the blockade would be âhugely harmfulâ to the oil economy. âEssentially, what youâre doing is youâre shutting off the vast majority of oil supplyâ from one of the worldâs largest suppliers of crude in the world, he said. âAnd thatâs going to have very deleterious effects on the oil market.â âIf youâre [US President] Donald Trump and you want to see oil down at $70 a barrel, that is not going to happen,â Stephens added. Oil prices edged higher on Tuesday, with Brent crude futures at $89.70 a barrel by 09:50 GMT. Before the US-Israel war on Iran, Brent crude futures averaged around $70 per barrel. Following the outbreak of the conflict, prices peaked at $126 per barrel. âIt is going to cause inflationary pressure in Western economies, and actually in Asian economies as well,â Stephens said. âItâs going to cause more trouble in terms of depleting oil reserves in economies that have already been struggling because of this now five-, sixâmonth blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.â
US identifies soldier killed destroying downed Iranian drone in Iraq
The US military has identified an army soldier killed recently during a âcontrolled detonationâ of a downed Iranian drone in Iraq as Sgt Michael Emmanuel Swinton, of Fayetteville, North Carolina. According to a press release from the US defense department on Tuesday morning, the 30-year-old Swinton was supporting overseas contingency operations in Iraq â and he was âkilled in action during a controlled detonation of a downed One-Way Unmanned Aerial Systemâ on Saturday at Erbil airbase in northern Iraq. The announcement follows the identification a day earlier of two other soldiers killed during the US war with Iran. First Lt Tyler James Feehan, 25, of Ewa Beach, Hawaii, and Pvt Isabella Gonzales, 19, of Carrollton, Texas, died in Jordan while defending against Iranian ballistic missile and drone attacks, the department said. The latest deaths brings to 17 the number of US service personnel killed in the war, which began in February with US military strikes on Iranâs military and nuclear infrastructure. Hundreds of service members have been injured, including nearly 100 after an escalation of the conflict over the previous two weeks in which Tehran has launched reprisal raids for consecutive nights of US bombing. An earlier statement from US Central Command (Centcom) gave more details of the incident in which Swinton was killed and another service member wounded. According to the release, there was âa controlled detonation of unexploded ordnance from a downed Iranian one-way attack droneâ. The statement said that the second service member was treated for a minor injury. Swinton enlisted in the army as an air defense early warning system operator in 2017. He was assigned to the armyâs air and missile defense command at Fort Bragg, North Carolina, according to information supplied to the Military Times. âSgt Swinton was an experienced noncommissioned officer who took great pride in his work and the people around him,â Brig Gen John L Dawber, commanding general of 32nd Army Air and Missile Defense Command, said in a statement. âHe answered the call to duty with courage, honor, and selfless dedication.â A Facebook post on Sunday by Swintonâs widow, Mia Gonzalez-Swinton, featured a photograph of her husband holding a young girl. âI didnât think this would be the last time I ever saw you,â she wrote. âI have no words. âI was informed this morning that my husband, Michael, was killed while serving in Iraq. Iâm navigating how to process this so please bear with me.â
The Latest: Republicans will soon face voters as the bombing continues
The U.S. and Iran are back to bombing every day in a bid to control the Strait of Hormuz. And neither is backing down, showing the limitations of President Donald Trumpâs reliance on escalating airstrikes to bend Tehran to his will. While the Trump administration says it is open to diplomacy, Iran so far has refused to loosen its grip over the crucial oil shipping corridor in the Persian Gulf. It is raising questions about the strategy for the conflict's next phase. The intensifying attacks have collapsed an interim ceasefire deal, killed more American troops and sent U.S. gasoline prices back up, posing more problems for Republicans hoping to get reelected. The Latest: Seeking calm for his country, Lebanonâs president will meet with Trump at the White House The landmark meeting between Joseph Aoun and Trump comes as Lebanon and Israel continue to hold rare direct talks mediated by Washington in a bid to bring about long-term calm in Lebanon after months of war between Israel and Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group. Lebanon hopes the talks will lead to Israeli troops withdrawing from large swaths of southern Lebanon, and for the Lebanese military to receive support to assert full control in areas where Hezbollah militants had held sway. Lebanon and Israel announced a âframework agreementâ on June 26, setting a plan for Israeli forces to withdraw from southern Lebanon as well as the disarmament of Hezbollah. Aoun is scheduled to arrive at the White House at 11 a.m. Trumpâs Justice seeking phone records of reportersâ mother and spouses Subpoenas for phone records of New York Times reporters now include the mother of one journalist and the spouses of two others as the Justice Department seeks to unmask the confidential sources of reporters who wrote about Trumpâs Qatari-gifted Air Force One jet. The Timesâ lawyers have moved to quash the subpoenas, noting that the mother in question is a mental health professional with confidential client relationships and that one of the two spouses is the general counsel of a law firm. The Justice Department has previously said that the reporters are not the targets of the investigation and asserted in a new legal filing Tuesday that it had followed its own protocols in issuing the subpoenas. U.S. District Judge Arun Subramanian is scheduled to hear arguments Thursday. Appeals court rejects Bidenâs bid to withhold recordings and transcripts of ghostwriter interviews The appellate panelâs 2-1 ruling late Monday found âsubstantialâ public interest in disclosing what former President Joe Biden wants to keep under wraps. Redactions to the recordings would help protect Bidenâs privacy, the majority noted. The judges suspended their decision until Aug. 3 to allow more time for Biden to consider another appeal. Mark Zwonitzer, who worked with Biden on his two memoirs, interviewed the Democrat at his home in 2016 and 2017, before his presidency. Bidenâs lawyers say the conversations were candid, personal and intended to remain private. The recordings were obtained by special counsel Robert Hur, who investigated Bidenâs handling of classified documents from his time as a senator from Delaware and as vice president. Republicans demanded the material after Hur declined to file charges against the then-president. Civilian infrastructure now targeted by both the US and Iran Both sides have targeted civilian infrastructure relied on by millions of people. Kuwaitâs Electricity, Water and Renewable Energy Ministry said Tehran struck desalination and power plants for a fourth straight day on Monday night, causing fires and damage. Some 90% of Kuwaitâs drinking water comes from desalination, making the attacks a matter of life and death for the tiny nation. U.S. strikes have been hitting electrical equipment in Iran as well, and Iranian officials also have said Americans targeted water facilities. US command says its broad strikes are in response to Iranâs attacks on shipping The U.S. militaryâs Central Command said Tuesday it targeted âIranian military command centers, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites and air defense systems.â It released more footage of bombings that targeted sites in Iran. âAmerican forces remain postured and prepared to hold Iran accountable for unwarranted aggression toward civilian mariners seeking to freely and openly transit the strait,â the command said. Iranian state media reported that explosions were heard in across six different provinces. Tanker attacks expand, forcing crew to abandon ship Traffic through the strait has slowed to a crawl during the latest violence. Lloydâs List Intelligence said only three ships transited the strait on Sunday. The British militaryâs United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center said a tanker came under attack early Tuesday in the strait off Oman, forcing the crew to abandon the vessel. Iranâs paramilitary Revolutionary Guard claimed the attack, as well as two other attacks on ships Monday in the waterway. The route around Oman has been the one the U.S. military has encouraged ships to travel to avoid Iranâs control. The UKMTO separately reported Tuesday that another previously unknown attack on a ship took place early the previous day. Iranian official meets mediators in Pakistan as attacks rage An Iranian official began meetings Tuesday with mediators in Pakistan as diplomats sought to salvage the collapsed interim deal between Iran and the United States, even as both countries continued to launch attacks for a 10th day of renewed fighting. The visit by Iranâs Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni comes as Pakistan has intensified diplomatic efforts in recent days to resuscitate the deal. However, it remains unclear just what new arrangement could be reached to end the fighting. Momeni met Pakistanâs army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir, according to two officials who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the closed-door negotiations. Momeni later met Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. Pakistanâs political leadership and Munir, who serves as both the chief of army staff and defense forces, have worked to persuade the United States and Iran back to resume negotiations. â By Munir Ahmed The limits of intensifying attacks emerge as US and Iran dig in The U.S. and Iran are back to bombing every day in a bid to control the Strait of Hormuz. And neither is backing down, showing the limitations of President Donald Trumpâs reliance on escalating airstrikes to bend Tehran to his will. While the Trump administration says it is open to diplomacy, Iran so far has refused to loosen its grip over the crucial oil shipping corridor in the Persian Gulf. It is raising questions about the strategy for the next phase of the conflict as intensifying attacks have collapsed an interim ceasefire deal, left additional American troops dead and sent U.S. gasoline prices back up â posing new problems for Republicans ahead of the midterm elections. Even with glimmers of hope for talks, the sides could be headed back to all-out war, with Trump warning that âevery time Iran kills an American Soldierâ going forward, âthey will pay for that killing many times over.â
Iran Threatens to Bomb Its Own Territory as US Weighs Ground Operation - Novinite.com - Sofia News Agency
Iranian officials have escalated their rhetoric as concerns grow over the possibility of a wider regional conflict, with military and political figures discussing responses to a potential US ground operation. Speaking on Iranian state television, Brigadier General Mohammad Akrami-Nia declared that Tehran would rather strike its own territory than allow it to fall under American control. "If America occupies our territory, we will even bomb our own territory. This is the logic of war," he said. The remarks came as US Central Command entered its 10th consecutive day of strikes against Iranian military targets. Fresh attacks overnight targeted command centers, missile and drone launch sites, maritime assets, and air defense systems, while Iranian state media reported explosions across several areas in the country's south. President Donald Trump is expected to decide on the next phase of the US campaign in the coming days. According to reports, the Pentagon has prepared several military options, including limited ground operations that would stop short of a full-scale invasion but could require thousands of troops and last for weeks or months. The White House has said military planners are providing the president with "maximum optionality," while stressing that no final decision has yet been made. As the fighting continues, the Pentagon disclosed that nearly 100 US service members have been injured since July 7. Officials said most of the casualties suffered minor concussions, although the military has faced criticism for delaying the disclosure of non-fatal injuries. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is expected to face questions from lawmakers in Congress as scrutiny over the conflict intensifies. According to official US figures, 15 American service members have been killed since the war began in late February. Iranian lawmakers have also called for a more forceful response. Former Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki, now serving in parliament, argued that retaliatory missile strikes against US bases alone would not be enough. Referring to reports that Washington could attempt to seize Kharg Island and Iran's oil facilities, he said Tehran should capture American personnel instead. "I have been advocating for a ground war for a long time. We should seize one of the US bases in the region, capture its forces, and bring them back to our country," Mottaki stated. Another member of parliament, Ahmad Bakhshayesh Ardestani, warned that Iran could broaden the conflict to neighboring Gulf states if American troops entered Iranian territory. He suggested Kuwait and Bahrain could face ground attacks under such circumstances. Addressing speculation over a possible US operation against Kharg Island, Ardestani argued that any occupation would be temporary. "Iranian missiles from Semnan, Zahedan, Isfahan and elsewhere can reach it. Occupying Kharg Island would turn it into a target for Iran," he said. Attention has also turned to Kuwait's Bubiyan Island, the country's largest island near the Iraqi border at the northern end of the Persian Gulf. Iranian political figures and social media accounts have speculated that, if the United States attempted to seize Kharg Island, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps could launch a ground operation through southern Iraq targeting Bubiyan. Such scenarios envision the deployment of the IRGC's Saberin special forces unit, an elite formation with extensive combat experience inside Iran and across the region. Reports circulating online about Iranian military movements toward Kuwait's border have not been independently verified. Kuwait remains one of the main hosts of US forces in the Gulf and has repeatedly come under Iranian attack during the latest escalation. Earlier reports in March and May alleged that IRGC commandos carried out operations involving Bubiyan Island and clashed with Kuwaiti security forces. According to Kuwaiti authorities, six IRGC members landed on Bubiyan by rented fishing boat on May 1. Security forces intercepted the group, capturing four after a firefight that wounded one Kuwaiti soldier, while two others escaped. Kuwait's Interior Ministry said the detainees admitted they were IRGC personnel sent to conduct "hostile acts." Tehran denied the accusation, insisting the officers had unintentionally entered Kuwaiti waters because of a navigation system malfunction. The conflict has increasingly affected neighboring countries. Jordan's military said its air defenses intercepted and destroyed three Iranian missiles, while Kuwait reported intercepting additional missiles and drones overnight. The Iran-backed Houthi movement in Yemen has announced a maritime blockade targeting Saudi shipping, raising fresh concerns over regional energy supplies. At the same time, attacks on commercial shipping have continued in the Strait of Hormuz. A tanker off the coast of Oman was struck by a projectile, forcing its crew to abandon the vessel, while two additional ships were also reportedly hit. Shipping traffic through the strategic waterway has fallen sharply since the collapse of the ceasefire. Trump previously stated in mid-March that US strikes had "obliterated" military facilities on Kharg Island while deliberately avoiding damage to its oil infrastructure. He also warned that continued Iranian interference with shipping in the Strait of Hormuz could prompt Washington to reconsider that restraint. After Iranian attacks killed additional US troops this week, Trump wrote on Truth Social, "Every time Iran kills an American soldier, they will pay for that killing many times over." Meanwhile, mediators continue to discuss a possible 10-day ceasefire, although Washington has downplayed expectations that such a proposal will be accepted in the near term.
IEA says Mideast fighting increases energy concerns
PARIS: The head of the International Energy Agency said on Tuesday (Jul 21) that renewed fighting in the Mideast increases concerns over energy supplies but that the market still has cushions to absorb the impact. "The escalation in hostilities affecting the Strait of Hormuz and energy infrastructure in the region increases security of supply concerns and uncertainty over the market outlook," IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said in a statement. "For the moment, crude oil markets continue to benefit from several cushioning factors," he added, pointing to increased exports from several countries and Saudi and United Arab Emirates oil reaching markets by alternative routes. However, Saudi Arabia's main alternative route of using a pipeline to load tankers in the Red Sea port of Yanbu is under threat as Iran's Yemeni allies, the Houthis, declared they would blockade Saudi Arabia's ports. Oil markets have for months feared that the Houthis would return to attacking shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden - as they did during the Gaza war - cutting off yet more crude from global markets. The initial market reaction to the announcement by the Houthis was restrained, however, as Iran indicated that mediation efforts were still underway, calming investor jitters. "Threats to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which has become increasingly important as a route to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, exacerbate these concerns further," said Birol, referring to the narrow passage between the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. The IEA, in addition to advising its industrialised nation members, also helps them coordinate the release of their strategic oil reserves in reaction to market disruptions. Birol noted that ongoing government releases from these reserves have provided considerable relief to markets, and that nations continue to hold ample reserves. However, he warned "there is no room for complacency on oil security" and pointed to a drawdown of available commercial inventories, with low refining activity contributing to a tighter supplies of refined oil products like petrol and diesel than for crude oil. Birol noted that additional supplies of liquefied natural gas from the United States and Canada have offset about 70 per cent of lost supply via the Strait of Hormuz. However, further delays in resuming Gulf exports "will be felt by all LNG importers, including Europe as it looks to refill its gas storage for next winter", he warned.
Tehran takes aim at Bahrain, Kuwait after US attacks southern Iran
U.S. forces struck targets across southern and western Iran Tuesday after President Donald Trump vowed retaliation for the deaths of American troops, while Tehran hit U.S. bases in the Gulf and a tanker was struck in the Strait of Hormuz. Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis announced a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia Monday, opening a potential new front in the war and raising the threat to global energy supplies and trade beyond the Gulf. Shipping companies loading or discharging cargo at Saudi ports could be targeted "in any location" by Houthis, according to an email sent to companies Monday, Reuters reported. Oil prices gained nearly 2% on the escalating cycle of attacks that has all but wrecked an interim peace agreement signed last month. But signs that Tehran and Washington want to resume diplomacy helped to limit price rises. U.S. Central Command said it had hit Iranian military command centers, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites and air defense systems in its latest round of strikes. Explosions were heard around the city of Shiraz in southern Iran, state media said. Konarak and Chabahar on the southern coast, the city of Khorramabad and a civilian site outside the city of Abdanan, both in the west, all came under attack, media reports said. Later, the IRNA news agency quoted an official in Khorramabad as saying no enemy attack had taken place there. At least 50 civilians have been killed and 500 wounded in the recent U.S. strikes on Iran, a Health Ministry official said. As hostilities spread across the region, the U.S. State Department issued a new "worldwide caution" for Americans due to "heightened tensions in the Middle East." Iran launched renewed attacks across the Gulf, where recent strikes on desalination facilities have raised concerns about water shortages. Attacks on Kuwaiti power generation and water desalination plants Monday caused several generation units to be taken out of service as a precautionary measure and repairs were underway, authorities said. Iran's Revolutionary Guards said they targeted infrastructure in Bahrain belonging to U.S. tech company Amazon in response to what they described as a U.S. strike on the construction site of Iran's planned Darkhovin nuclear power plant. Iranian state media reported that Iranian forces also targeted accommodation facilities of U.S. military personnel at Bahrain's Sheikh Isa Air Base. There was no immediate comment from the U.S. military, Bahrain or Amazon on the reported incidents, which Reuters was unable to verify. The Iranian army said it launched drone attacks against three U.S. military bases in Kuwait Tuesday. The Guards said they attacked a U.S. military site in Jordan, while Jordan said its forces intercepted and destroyed five Iranian drones. The maritime security agency UKMTO said Tuesday a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz reported being struck by a projectile, forcing its crew to abandon the vessel and board a lifeboat. Also on Tuesday, Iran's Revolutionary Guards said two oil tankers had caught fire after explosions while attempting to transit the southern route of the strait. Just four commodity vessels crossed the strait on Monday, mostly using the northern shipping lane near Iran's coast, down from seven the previous day, Kpler data showed. Iran had been pressing the Houthis to close the Bab el-Mandeb gateway to the Red Sea if the U.S. continued to attack Iranian power infrastructure â putting two of the world's most vital energy arteries at risk. A full closure of Bab el-Mandeb could reduce global oil supply by 7% as it would leave most Saudi oil exports unable to leave the region, adding to the 10% cut in oil flows from the war in the Gulf. A senior Iranian official told Reuters on Monday that Tehran had received a proposal from mediators for a 10-day cease-fire in efforts to salvage the interim deal, intended to pave the way to a lasting agreement to end the war that began on Feb. 28 with U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran. Israel has not joined the latest round of strikes on Iran. "We have no desire to insert ourselves into this, but we are prepared for any scenario," Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said Tuesday. Iranian Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni had asked Pakistan to resume its mediation role in the conflict. He later arrived in Islamabad for further talks. The latest phase of fighting has proved to be among the deadliest of the conflict for U.S. forces. U.S. troop deaths rose to 17 over the weekend. Trump, under mounting pressure at home over rising gasoline prices since the war began, said the latest U.S. strikes on Iran were avenging the deaths of American service members. "Every time Iran kills an American Soldier they will pay for that killing many times over!" he wrote on Truth Social on Monday. The war has killed thousands of people, mostly in Iran and Lebanon. Parts of Lebanon remain under Israeli occupation following attacks on Israel by Hezbollah fighters, who said they were acting in solidarity with Tehran. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun is due to meet Trump at the White House on Tuesday to present a plan on how to disarm Iran-aligned Hezbollah and secure an Israeli withdrawal.
Crude oil prices rise 2% on fresh attacks by US and Iran
Listen to this article in summarized format Brent crude futures rose $1.62, or 1.8%, to $90.84 a barrel by 1152 GMT. The front-month U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude contract , which expires on Tuesday, was up $1.37, or 1.7%, at $84.60. The more active contract for September delivery rose $1.48, or 1.8%, to $83.96. "Lower exports through the Strait of Hormuz and concerns of potential supply disruption from oil coming through the Red Sea are moderately supporting oil prices," said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. U.S. forces bombed targets in southern Iran overnight after President Donald Trump said that Tehran would pay dearly for the deaths of American soldiers. Iran, meanwhile, targeted U.S. sites in Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan. A tanker in the Strait of Hormuz reported being struck by an unknown projectile, forcing its crew to abandon ship and board a lifeboat, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency said on Tuesday as vessel crossings dropped further. "The optimist may see the latest American attacks as a last attempt to strengthen the negotiating position before a compromise is reached and the Strait of Hormuz is reopened," an SEB Research note said. "However, the risk is a more prolonged stalemate, with continued uncertain energy flows, higher oil prices and recurring attacks." Limiting price gains, a senior Iranian official told Reuters that Tehran had received a proposal from mediators for a 10-day ceasefire in efforts to salvage the deal signed on June 17, intended to pave the way for a lasting agreement to end the war that began on February 28 with U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran. Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis said on Monday that they would impose a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia, opening a potential new front against the U.S. and raising the threat to global energy supplies and trade beyond the Gulf. "The threats of a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia by the Houthis are significant because they raise the risk of disruption to another major oil exporter," said Tim Waterer at KCM Trade. Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil and gasoline stockpiles were expected to have fallen last week while distillate stocks are likely to have risen, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday. (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel) (What's moving Sensex and Nifty Track latest market news, stock tips, Budget 2025, Share Market on Budget 2025 and expert advice, on ETMarkets. Also, ETMarkets.com is now on Telegram. For fastest news alerts on financial markets, investment strategies and stocks alerts, subscribe to our Telegram feeds .) Subscribe to ET Prime and read the Economic Times ePaper Online.and Sensex Today. Top Trending Stocks: SBI Share Price, Axis Bank Share Price, HDFC Bank Share Price, Infosys Share Price, Wipro Share Price, NTPC Share Price (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel) (What's moving Sensex and Nifty Track latest market news, stock tips, Budget 2025, Share Market on Budget 2025 and expert advice, on ETMarkets. Also, ETMarkets.com is now on Telegram. For fastest news alerts on financial markets, investment strategies and stocks alerts, subscribe to our Telegram feeds .) Subscribe to ET Prime and read the Economic Times ePaper Online.and Sensex Today. Top Trending Stocks: SBI Share Price, Axis Bank Share Price, HDFC Bank Share Price, Infosys Share Price, Wipro Share Price, NTPC Share Price
Futures Jump As Chipmakers Surge After Japan , Korea Bounce
Futures Jump As Chipmakers Surge After Japan , Korea Bounce US stock futures are higher led by Tech after a strong bounce in chip stocks in Japan (memory stock Kioxia traded limit up after trading limit down on Friday and Monday was a holiday) and Korea, as evidence mounts that Momentum / Semis pullback have bottomed, with supportive price action elsewhere in Asia and Europe, though the JPM EU Trading Desk is not yet seeing follow-through buying in Semis. As of 7:20am ET, S&P futures are 0.5% higher, lagging the 1.4% bounce in Nasdaq futures helped by a report that TSMC is planning price hikes, although it is unclear if the early ramp will persist amid the re-escalating war with Iran which overnight saw Houthis impose a blocakde on Saudi Arabia. In premarket trading, most Mag 7 names are higher with semis leading (SOXX +4%). Cyclicals ex-Energy are leading Defensives with both Staples and HC net lower and AI boosting Industrials and Utils. WTI crude is trading near its highs, boosting Energy as all 3 commodity complexes move higher with silver the standout which has traded in tandem with the AI theme. The yield curve is twisting steeper with yields ranging from -1bp to +1bp with USD flat. Todayâs macro focus is on the weekly ADP number and regional Fed activity.  US economic data calendar includes ADP weekly employment change (8:15am) and July Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing index (8:30 am). Fed speaker slate is blank during July 18-30 external communications blackout period around the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. In premarket trading, chipmakers and other AI-related firms rebound after the sector suffered some recent weakness. Movers include Intel (INTC +5.5%), Sandisk (SNDK +8.1%), Micron (MU +6.8%), CoreWeave (CRWV +3.8%), GE Vernova (GEV +2.5%) as the entire trillion-dollar sector continues to trade like a rabid pennystock. Tesla and Nvidia are leading Magnificent 7 stocks higher during the AI rebound (Tesla +1.2%, Nvidia +1.1%, Alphabet +1%, Meta +0.4%, Amazon +0.2%, Apple -0.4%, Microsoft -0.7%). In corporate news, BlackRockâs coming debt sale of more than $12 billion for a Meta Platforms data center is the result of years spent transforming a public investments giant into a heavy hitter in private markets too. The Paramount-Warner deal, paused Monday by a federal judge, faces a legal hurdle that risks putting the deal on hold for months at a cost that could quickly climb to billions of dollars. Nikeâs soccer boss said the World Cup ending âwas not what we dreamed,â as Spain and Argentina â both Adidas teams â faced off in the final after beating Nike-clad teams in the semifinals. Chipmakers are leading the gains in premarket trading, along with associated memory storage and semiconductor equipment names, helped by a report that TSMC is planning price hikes. Tech was also buoyed by upbeat Taiwan and South Korean export data, supportive Wall Street commentary (virtually every bank is begging for a momentum bounce knowing well that if one doesn't come it will get very ugly) and an absence of new geopolitical flashpoints. Even so, nagging worries about margin debt and inflation loom for the AI trade. To wit, according to the trading desk at UBS, the sharp selloff in momentum stocks may be nearing its end, creating an opportunity for investors to start rebuilding positions in AI and semiconductor shares. âWhile volatility is likely to remain high given the elevated concentration still present in parts of the market, the correction has been both deep and lengthy enough to alleviate some valuation concerns,â said Santiago Mateo Yanguas, head of equity at CaixaBank AM. South Koreaâs exports data adds further support for chips, with semiconductor exports climbing by a perfectly sustainable about 181% YoY for the first 20 days of July. Taiwanâs June export orders from the US rose nearly 84% year-on-year, the fastest pace on record. Whether the AI rally can extend will depend heavily on the reporting season and, as Bloomberg highlights, the biggest concern is leverage with US margin debt rising 49% year-on-year in June to a record high. AI capex âhas stretched hyperscalers to the edge of acceptable investor limits,â notes JonesTrading chief strategist Mike OâRourke. Others were more bearish: equity investors should look to reduce some exposure after this earnings season, according to HSBCâs Max Kettner, who warns that stretched sentiment, a fading fiscal impulse, and US midterm election uncertainty could trigger a pullback. TSMC is set to raise prices for advanced and mature chip production services by up to 10% in 2027 to reflect rising costs, Nikkei Asia reports. It follows a report last week of ASML raising prices for its equipment, for which TSMC is ASMLâs largest customer. While price increases underpin the demand story, it will stoke concerns of inflationary pressures and traders will be on watch for corporate margin hits from memory costs during this earnings season. Focus will soon shift to the start of the reporting season for Big Tech firms, where AI hyperscalers will update investors on their capital spending plans. Alphabet Inc. reports on Wednesday, while Microsoft Corp., Meta Platforms Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. are due next week. âThe next test is no longer whether AI demand exists, but whether pricing, margins and cash flow can justify the capex bill,â said Florian Ielpo, head of macro at Lombard Odier Investment Managers. âIf they can, the rebound should broaden. Otherwise, volatility remains the regime.â A question that investors are asking themselves is whether now is the time to sell chips and rotate toward hyperscalers, which have underperformed semiconductors this year, according to Alexandre Drabowicz, chief investment officer at Indosuez Wealth Management in Paris. âOur view is that one needs to be invested in both,â Drabowicz said. âAlphabetâs earnings this week will be a real bellwether for the industry and its capacity to monetize AI. We believe the market underestimates how fast these companies will be able to monetize.â Global trade faces a fresh headache as the Panama Canal moves to curtail some vessel-booking slots because of water-supply challenges. Overnight, the Trump admin vowed to impose a fresh 50% tariff on some Canadian goods over what it said was unfair treatment of American alcohol, cars and dairy. In politics, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is set to testify before lawmakers to defend the Trump administrationâs request for billions of dollars in additional money for the Iran war. Trump met with a pair of key Republican senators on Monday evening to discuss a path forward on legislation that would override state laws on AI.  A federal appeals court denied Joe Bidenâs request for a temporary block to stop the Justice Department from turning over tapes and transcripts to the Heritage Foundation. Seperately, the DOJ has launched a new investigation into Harvard University, alleging that some of its financial aid programs violate civil rights law by excluding American citizens. European stocks are up too, the Stoxx 600 rising 0.2%, also being led by the technology sector. After two days in the red, as gains in the technology sector and a slew of robust earnings counter news about the continuing US-Iran clashes. Here are the biggest movers Tuesday: Mitie Group shares surge as much as 42% after agreeing to a takeover by OCS Group at a big premium to Mondayâs close. The facility management companyâs shares remain below the offer price Babcock rises as much as 8.3%, leading gains amoung European defense stocks on Tuesday after the UKâs new prime minister Andy Burnham told NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte that John Healeyâs appointment as Chancellor was a âsignal of his intentâ on defense Var Energi shares gain as much as 5.9% and BlueNord rises as much as 6.7% after the former made a $1.3 billion offer to acquire the latter; Var Energi also reported 2Q results and reaffirmed its production forecast Bossard shares jump as much as 11%, hitting their highest level since October 2024, after first-half results from the maker of fastening devices beat expectations, which analysts said provides better visibility on the full-year outlook Genuit Group gains as much as 3.2% after analysts at Stifel initiated coverage on the maker of plastic piping systems with a buy rating and said they see an inflection point coming, driven by regulatory and structural drivers Basic resources stocks gained the most in the Stoxx 600 index as copper headed for its highest close since mid-June on signs that supply conditions in China are continuing to tighten. Gold touched its highest level in a week on dip-buying Boliden drops as much as 7.6%, to the lowest since May 5, after the mining company delivered revenue and operating profit below expectations in the second quarter, along with negative free cash flow Wartsila shares drop as much as 4.6% as JPMorgan flags the company lowering its demand outlook for the Energy division. Thatâs overshadowing the companyâs strong beat on orders in the second quarter Schindler shares fall as much as 6.1%, the most in five months, after second-quarter revenues missed estimates, offsetting a better-than-expected margin performance Julius Baer shares declined as much as 5.3% as beats on net income and assets under management were overshadowed by the lack of update on a regulatory review and any subsequent share buybacks Jungheinrich shares drop as much as 5.5% after Germanyâs financial regulator BaFin opened an accounting review on whether the company breached financial-reporting rules in connection with the planned sale of the companyâs Russian business Asian stocks rose for the first time in four sessions as investors rush back into chip stocks after a recent rout.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index jumped as much as 2.3%, the most since July 15, led by TSMC, Samsung and SK Hynix. South Korea and Taiwan led the gains in the region, with most other markets also climbing higher as investor sentiment improves. Taiexâs 3.6% rise was the most in three weeks. Japanâs Nikkei 225 rose 2.7% after slipping into correction territory on Friday. While investors continue to debate whether AI spending is justified, the recent tech selloff has drawn some back to hunt for bargains. Several megacap earnings due later this week, including Tesla and Alphabet Inc., will shed further light on whether the AI-driven rally can regain momentum. âThe market has already undergone a fairly substantial correction,â said Ikuo Mitsui, a fund manager at Aizawa Securities. âAt the same time, corporate earnings have held up reasonably well and have proved more resilient than expected.â In FX, the dollar is fluctuating, albeit in a narrow range. The yen is lagging, while the Norwegian krone and Aussie dollar are stronger. In rates, treasury yields are little changed in early US trading with the yield curve steeper, tracking similar price action across most developed sovereign bond markets, with oil prices and stock index futures higher inside Mondayâs ranges. Tiny overnight yield ranges included less than 2bp for 10-year. US session has no major calendar events. Yields across tenors remain within about a basis point of Mondayâs closing levels, the 10-year just under 4.60%. Treasury futures volumes through 7am New York time were 60% to 90% of 20-day average level. IG credit new-issue calendar includes is blank so far, but at least one potential borrower stood down Monday as three issuers raised a combined $4.5 billion, and may return. Treasury coupon auctions this week include $13 billion 20-year reopening Wednesday and $21 billion 10-year TIPS new issue Thursday. Germany is underperforming at the long end in Europe. UK government bonds ticked higher as investors awaited fresh policy details from new Prime Minister Andy Burnham. Weak economic data dimmed bets on higher interest rates. In commodities, oil prices have been mostly lower for the session so far and Brent is sitting a little short of $89/barrel, while gold has come off its high but is still in the green and above $4,000/oz. The US economic data calendar includes ADP weekly employment change (8:15am) and July Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing index (8:30 am). Fed speaker slate is blank during July 18-30 external communications blackout period around the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. Market Snapshot Top Overnight News President Trump is nearing a decisive fork in the Iran war, with U.S. and Israeli officials envisioning only two viable endgames: Option 1: Pursue a new 10-day ceasefire aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Option 2: Launch a massive joint military campaign with Israel to force Tehran's capitulation. Axios Vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has slumped since U.S. President Donald Trumpâs blockade took effect last week, with shipowners increasingly avoiding one of the worldâs most important energy corridors as fighting between the U.S. and Iran intensifies. CNBC China is mounting one of its broadest efforts in years to steady the stock market, with regulators, state-backed investors, insurers and asset managers all moving to shore up confidence after a selloff in tech shares. BBG Chinaâs cabinet pledged to ensure the country will meet its full-year economic goal and to forge ahead with implementing policies, after growth slipped below the official target range in the second quarter. BBG Chinese regulators are considering tightening export controls on artificial intelligence and semiconductor technologies, as the US-China rivalry intensifies in cutting-edge AI. FT The US vowed to impose a new 50% tariff on some Canadian goods, citing unfair treatment of American products. The levies would apply to items including milk and beer but exempt energy, potash and critical minerals. BBG London Stock Exchange plans to launch a 24/5 trading venue to support digital, algorithmic and agentic trading. Itâll operate separately from LSEâs Main Market, with ETPs set to debut next year. BBG OpenAI and Anthropic executives are sounding the alarm about the rise of cheap AI, particularly powerful new models produced in China, suggesting they will lead to a âdystopianâ AI future and present unacceptable security risks without regulation. WSJ The cost of protecting Oracle Corp.âs debt against default reached a fresh multi-year high on Monday while its existing bonds sold off, as doubts grew over whether the companyâs massive investments in artificial intelligence will pay off. BBG US President Trump signed an order to identify and fix potential national security vulnerabilities by requiring defence contractors to screen their supply chains, aiming to stop weapons makers from working with certain foreign suppliers including China. A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk APAC stocks traded mixed following the subdued handover from the US, where most major indices declined as oil prices and yields climbed amid the ongoing geopolitical backdrop, although the Nasdaq showed some resilience amid a bounce in tech and telecommunications. ASX 200 lacked firm direction with price action contained within relatively tight parameters in the absence of notable data or key macro drivers. Nikkei 225 rallied on return from the long weekend, with some bargain-hunting after last Friday's slump. KOSPI shrugged off earlier indecision and rallied amid a tech rebound, with notable strength seen in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix shares. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed with price action range-bound as they took a breather after rallying yesterday amid stimulus hopes and Chinaâs ânational teamâ buying close to USD 9bln in equities. Top Asian News Japan's Cabinet approved an economic framework policy document including fiscal plan, which cites BoJ autonomy and lacked sales tax decisions. Japan is reportedly to relax rules surrounding bank lending for M&A and incentivise pension funds to invest more in alternative assets. New Zealand Inflation Rate QoQ (Q2) Q/Q 1.5% vs. Exp. 1.4% (Prev. 0.9%). New Zealand Inflation Rate YoY (Q2) Y/Y 4.1% vs. Exp. 4% (Prev. 3.1%). South Korea July 1st-20th Exports rose 52.3% Y/Y, Imports rose 20.0% Y/Y and Trade Balance is at a provisional surplus of USD 12.2bln. Taiwan Export Orders (Jun) Y/Y 59.4% (exp. 47.3%). european bourses are mixed and ultimately trading on either side of the unchanged mark. Tentative action which is encapsulated by the tumultuous geopolitical environment and a number of earnings from within the region. European sectors hold a slight negative bias. Tech outperforms followed by Basic Resources, whilst Optimised Personal Care and Media reside at the bottom of the pile. The Tech sector continues to bounce back from recent losses, following a similar theme seen in the APAC session, where the KOSPI gained c. 3.5%. Top European News UK government to remove VAT on electricity bills from October 1st, funded by cancellation of the Digital ID programme, as part of new tax cut measures. UK PM Burnham reportedly to slash business rates for the hospitality sector by 20% within days, Huffington Post reported. Additionally, a GBP 2 cap on bus fares is also set to be unveiled as soon as Wednesday. Worldpanel announced grocery inflation and sales (w/e 12th July): Grocery Inflation 2.6% (prev. 3%). FX G10s are mixed against the Buck. Antipodeans lead after a hotter-than-expected NZ CPI; JPY underperforms after the Japanese cabinet excluded a sales tax decision from its fiscal plan. DXY is a touch lower today, with oil prices softer but lacking direction as we await further geopolitical updates. Overnight, Axios reported that senior US and Israeli officials are claiming Trumpâs options were to either promote a new 10-day ceasefire or launch a full-scale war on Iran. Elsewhere, Fox reported Trump will decide in the coming days whether to expand military operations against Iran. ING opines USD risks remain to the upside, given the aforementioned factors. Given the above, focus remains on incoming Gulf newsflow with a light calendar ahead of the Fedâs meeting next week. DXY remains below the 21DMA at 100.05, currently between 100.90 and 101. GBP in focus today after UK PM Burnham appointed former Defence Minister Healey as Chancellor (see 09:50 analysis for more detail). Elsewhere, UK jobs saw the unemployment rate remain steady at 4.9%, whilst the Employment Change topped expectations, while the wages components were flat/very slightly firmer. Overall, a report which will have little impact on the BoE, ahead of CPI on Wednesday and Flash PMIs on Friday. GBP takes a breather just above 1.3420 in Cable, and a little weaker just above 0.85 in the EUR cross. JPY is on a weaker footing despite the aforementioned subdued Dollar and softer oil prices. Overnight, Japan's Cabinet approved the economic framework policy document, including a fiscal plan, which cited BoJ autonomy but lacked a sales tax decision. Amid the uncertainty given the lack of a funding plan, USD/JPY resides towards the upper end of a 162.43-162.70 range. Antipodeans hold on to the spoils of the prior day's outperformance, with Aussie propped up by firmer metals whilst the Kiwi is leading after firmer-than-expected New Zealand CPI data. AUD/NZD is a modest touch lower, Aussie and Kiwi both +0.4% against the Buck. Fixed Income Global fixed income benchmarks trade range-bound, in line with energy prices, despite the risk-on tone seen across the equity space. Equities seem to enjoy the reporting around a possible 10-day ceasefire, with recent reporting hinting that the US is demanding a longer ceasefire. Gilts (+1 tick) trade higher, despite the announcement of former Defence Secretary Healey as Chancellor. Thus far, gilts have taken this as fairly positive, possibly taking comfort in the fact that he used to work in the Treasury in past governments. In terms of Burnham's policy, Bloomberg reported that the UK government will remove VAT on electricity bills from October 1st, funded by cancellation of the Digital ID programme. There have been contradictory reports over whether this measure will be fully funded. The Times reported that this will be fully funded; however, the OBR said the GBP 1.8bln figure for the ID scheme was unfunded, while former UK minister Jones suggested that Burnham's cut is also unfunded. More recently, the Huffington Post reported that Burnham is to slash business rates for the hospitality sector by 20%, while a GBP 2 cap on bus fares is also set to be unveiled soon. On the data front, the ONS released its May employment report; employment change 147k (exp. 85k, prev. 100k), unemployment change 4.9% (exp. 4.9%, prev. 4.9%). Despite the strong labour report, gilts have failed to react, given the focus on politics. Bunds (-10 ticks) rotate in a 124.59-124.81 range. Focusing on the short-end, the yield currently trades outside of the 2.52-2.76% range, driven by the recent leg higher in energy prices. Brent has recently returned above the USD 90/bbl mark, resurfacing worries of an energy pass-through into inflation. ING says that rates can take a hawkish view, with the 2yr euro swap rate touching 3%, because the EZ growth picture continues to recover. Additionally, implied bond volatility is at lower levels, compared to the early stages of the Middle East conflict. USTs (+1 tick) lack direction given the quiet docket this week, heading into the Fed policy announcement next week. Germany sells EUR 4.553bln vs exp. EUR 6bln 2.90% 2031 Bobl: b/c 1.48x, average yield 2.89%, retention 24.1%. The UK sells GBP 5bln 4.00% 2029 Gilt: b/c 3.42x (prev. 3.35x), average yield 4.463% (prev. 4.238%), tail 0.3bps (prev. 0.2bps). Commodities Geopolitics remain fluid with constructive and escalatory updates on the US-Iran front. On the former, a 10-day ceasefire proposal was pitched, while Iran confirmed ongoing mediation talks, which keeps alive the possibility of a return to the June interim MoU. On the other hand, last night was the 10th consecutive day of US airstrikes, whilst Iran continues targeting the region and reiterated that the Strait of Hormuz is closed. US President Trump is expected to decide in the coming days whether to expand military operations against Iran and return to full-scale combat, a senior US official told Fox News. Meanwhile, senior US and Israeli officials are claiming Trump only has two realistic options: either promoting a new 10-day ceasefire with the aim of reopening the Strait of Hormuz, or launching a full-scale war on Iran, Axios reported. Further, a US official said if US President Trump decides to expand the war, the strikes will include Tehran and nuclear sites, according to Al Arabiya. Crude oil futures are trading subdued as market participants weigh emerging diplomatic de-escalation signals against ongoing military exchanges in the Middle East. Brent crude futures fell to the bottom end of a USD 88.08-89.45/bbl range while WTI similarly waned to the lower end of a USD 81.64-83.05/bbl range. Also on the supply side, NHC reported that Tropical Storm Bertha has strengthened, situated right in the Gulf of Mexico. Dutch TTF bucks the trend and has edged higher, back above the EUR 59.23/MWh mark, in the European morning, with analysts suggesting gas will be impacted more by the Middle East situation. Precious metals are on a firmer footing as the Dollar and inflation expectations ease with oil prices. Spot gold trades towards the upper end of a USD 3,999/oz to USD 4,084/oz range. Spot silver surges 4.5% at the time of writing as it rises above USD 59/oz vs Fridayâs 54.77/oz base. Base metals also cheer the pullback in the Dollar alongside expectations of Chinese stimulus following recent weak economic data. 3M LME copper is firmer by 1.5% at the time of writing and towards the upper end of a USD 13,603.73- 13,840.00/t range. UAE's ADNOC has approved a USD 6.2bln project to boost natgas production, Bloomberg reported. Goldman Sachs said Brent may rise above USD 120/bbl in FY26 Q4 if Hormuz remains disrupted. Trade/Tariffs The US is imposing an additional 50% tariff on certain products of Canada including some USMCA products, to counter Canadian bias against US commerce with respect to alcoholic beverages, dairy, motor vehicles. In response, Canadian PM Carney said Canada is ready to engage intensively to address issues with the US and said we're ready to talk with the US about modernising the USMCA. Additionally, the Ontario Premier said that Canada should impose retaliatory tariffs against the US. China is weighing tighter export controls on AI models and chips, according to FT. Central banks ECB Bank Lending Survey (Jul): Euro area banks reported a moderate net tightening of credit standards for loans or credit lines to enterprises in Q2'26. Geopolitics: Middle East It was Iran which proposed the 10-day ceasefire, i24's Stein reported, citing sources. The US said to be demanding a longer ceasefire and demanding even partial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz. The goal of these 10 days, according to the two sources, is to find a solution for the Strait of Hormuz. The mediators conveyed the proposal to the US and even added additional components to it during the talks they held with Washington and Tehran so that it would be between the territory controlled by Oman and the territory controlled by Iran and through which ships could pass. US Energy Secretary Wright said they will continue to attack Iran and are ensuring the flow of oil, gas and other products through the Strait of Hormuz with or without Iran's cooperation. Wright said they continue to undermine Iran's offensive military capabilities and that President Trump wants to end the conflict with a peace deal, but this will require cooperation from both sides. US CENTCOM announced another round of strikes against Iran in which US forces struck Iranian military command centres, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites and air defence systems to degrade Iran's ability to continue attacking vessels. US airstrikes targeted the centre of Isfahan city and several explosions were heard in Bandar Abbas, Qeshm, Chabahar, Konarak and Shiraz, while air defence systems were activated near Iran's Bushehr nuclear power plant. US likely does not have enough munitions to sustain a prolonged all-out war with Iran â which is already adapting to bypass US defence systems in its attacks across the region, according to an expert cited by The New York Post Iran claimed a strike on a US military data centre in Bahrain and stated that US radar and defence systems in Bahrain were destroyed. Iran also targeted US military facilities at Kuwait's Ahmad Al-Jaber base, US missile systems at Kuwait's Arifjan base, while explosions were reported in the Ali Al-Salem Airbase in Kuwait. Additionally, a central data infrastructure of Amazon (AMZN) in Bahrain was attacked by several cruise missiles. More recently, there have been reports of sirens in Qatar while explosions were heard in Jordan. IRGC said two tankers were hit near the Strait of Hormuz, and that the Strait of Hormuz is closed, while the UKMTO said it received a report of an incident 8NM northeast of Oman's Limah and later announced the crew had abandoned the ship. Yemeni Houthi commander said Saudi Arabia faces two options: either lift the blockade and stop its intervention or continue escalating, which will cost it a lot, Al Mayadeen reported. Israeli Finance Minister Smotrich said "the State of Israel has no interest in joining the conflict between Iran and the US - the current situation is the best for us", Ynet reported. Israel conducted artillery strikes on southern Lebanon, while it stated that the programme of pilot zones in southern Lebanon began on Monday, which was carried out in cooperation with US military and Lebanese armed forces. Furthermore, it will respond forcefully to any violation of the agreement. The Lebanese army entered Zawtar al-Gharbiya as part of the first phase of the pilot zones, Al Hadath reported, while Israeli troops departed the area. Geopolitics: Ukraine Russiaâs Defence Ministry said its forces have struck infrastructure used by Ukraineâs military in the port of Odesa, IFX reported. Russia's Kremlin said that Russia will continue targeting vessels involved in supplying Ukraineâs military. Geopolitics: Other US State Department said the US calls on China to immediately cease its destabilising conduct and condemns China's dangerous and aggressive actions against Philippine Navy personnel at the Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea on July 20th. North Korea's Foreign Minister met with Russian President Putin in Moscow on 19th July, according to KCNA. US Event Calendar 8:15am: ADP weekly employment change 8:30am July Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing index DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Yesterday I discussed the huge developments at the end of last week with Chinese open-source AI sparking another potential âDeepSeek momentâ. Overnight Adrian Cox has published a timely report explaining what all the fuss is about. âOpen-source AI 101: the battle for the future of AIâ is a great insight for generalists into what open models are, how they differ from proprietary models like Claude and OpenAIâs GPTs, and why they are key to the AI boom. Itâs on the Deutsche Bank Research Institute website here. I think that if the Chinese model of AI development continues to gain traction, it could have significant implications for the highly capital-intensive, capex-led US approach. As such, the piece is well worth a read. Onto markets, and they struggled to gain traction yesterday, with the S&P 500 (-0.19%) losing ground even as chip stocks stabilised after last weekâs rout, while Middle East concerns lingered. There has been a recovery overnight though. On the Middle East conflict there was some hope as a spokesman for Iranâs foreign ministry said that âideas from some mediators have been conveyedâ to Iran, but escalating rhetoric from the Houthis in Yemen as well as from President Trump meant Brent crude still closed +1.27% higher at $89.22/bbl. Meanwhile, global bonds saw a broad selloff, with 10yr Treasury yields closing +4.4bps higher, in part due to a hint of looser fiscal policy from the new UK PM Burnham. 30yr US real yields also hit their highest since 2008. Starting with Iran, we did see some improvement in sentiment yesterday as Reuters reported that a senior Iranian official had told them that mediators had passed a proposal to Iran, which would offer a 10-day ceasefire to try and revive the interim deal last month. But the headlines werenât all positive yesterday, and shortly afterwards, oil prices pared back some of their decline after the Houthis said theyâd impose a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia, which risks adding to the oil supply disruption. The mood also wasnât helped by Trumpâs post that Iran âwill pay⌠many times overâ for the deaths of US soldiers, while the US has conducted a 10th consecutive night of strikes against Iran overnight. So with different counteracting forces, Brent crude settled +1.27% higher at $89.22/bbl, beneath its morning peak above $91/bbl but well off the lows just above $86/bbl. Overnight, Brent is -0.75% lower. Back to the bond sell-off and the UK led the way with gilts seeing a sharp underperformance after new PM Andy Burnham said that he would use âany flexibilityâ within the countryâs fiscal rules. Potential options for such flexibility include using up the available headroom under the fiscal rules and using off-balance-sheet structures to fund targeted capital investments. The latter may lie outside the current fiscal rules but would still add to the debt burden. So the comments were seen as opening the way for more borrowing and meant that the 10yr yield ended the day up +8.1bps at 5.03%, whilst the 30yr yield (+8.9bps) closed at 5.74%. This sell-off all happened after he spoke. Weâre also expecting some further announcements from the new administration this week, and Burnham said in his first speech as PM that heâd be setting out more measures from today to support with the cost of living. In a surprise move, we then learnt that Burnham had picked John Healey, the former Defence Secretary, as the new Chancellor of the Exchequer. Healey had been voted as one of the more investor-friendly options for Chancellor in a recent Bloomberg survey, though thereâs little visibility on his fiscal views. Indeed, his highest-profile recent move was accusing the Treasury of underfunding defence as he resigned from Starmerâs government last month. In other appointments, Burnham picked Ed Miliband as foreign secretary and appointed a close ally, Louise Haigh, as first secretary of state. The latter pick coupled with Healeyâs as Chancellor raises the possibility that under Burnham, Number 10 will look to exert more direct control over economic policy. The pound did recover a bit of yesterdayâs earlier losses following the news of Healeyâs appointment, but it was still down -0.16% against the dollar. Whilst the UK saw the worst of the bond selloff, it was echoed around the world. In Europe, yields on 10yr bunds (+2.5bps), OATs (+1.9bps) and BTPs (+2.6bps) all moved higher, and for 10yr OATs, that took them up to a post-2009 high of 3.94%. And over in the US, the 10yr Treasury yield (+4.4bps) was up to 4.59%. The sell-off in Treasuries was driven by real yields, with the 10yr real yield (+3.3bps) rising to 2.33%, while the 30yr real yield (+3.4bps) rose to 2.92%, its highest level since 2008. At the same time, investors priced in a more hawkish path for the Fed, with 34bps of hikes now priced in by the December meeting, up +2.3bps on the day. This has now retraced more than half of the declines seen since last week's soft CPI. US equities struggled to recover amid the ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and rising real yields. The S&P 500 (-0.19%) retreated for a third consecutive session with two thirds of its constituents down on the day. The Philly semiconductor index (+0.60%) did see a modest recovery after its -9.97% slump last week, so itâs no longer more than -20% beneath its record high, as it was on Friday. However, the broader tech mood was still cautious, with the NASDAQ (-0.05%) and Mag-7 (-0.07%) inching lower. And over in Europe, the STOXX 600 was also down -0.30%, with the FTSE 100 (-0.71%) leading the losses amid the broader UK asset underperformance. However there has been a bounce this morning in Asia with S&P (+0.42%) and Nasdaq (+1.03%) futures both comfortably higher. The tech recovery continues elsewhere as the KOSPI (+4.63%) is leading gains in the region after falling nearly 5% yesterday. Elsewhere, the Nikkei (+2.76%) is also firm after yesterday's holiday. In China, the CSI 300 (+1.76%) and Shanghai Composite (+0.62%) are posting solid gains, while the Hang Seng (+0.03%) is fairly flat alongside the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.08%). Early-morning data showed that South Koreaâs exports surged 52.3% year-over-year during the first 20 days of July, driven largely by semiconductor shipments, which nearly tripled amid sustained demand fueled by the ongoing artificial intelligence boom. This was one of the WOW! charts in my recent pack, with exports at over 50-year highs on a YoY basis. The trend continues. In other overnight news, the US announced that it will impose a 50% tariff on some Canadian goods. The new tariffs were announced under Section 338 of the 1930 Tariff Act, which has never previously been used. This allows the President to impose duties of up to 50% in response to discriminatory treatment against U.S. commerce. According to US Trade Representative Greer, the new tariffs are due to take force in 30 days and will cover close to $20bn of goods, so a relatively small portion of the over $350bn of annual Canadian exports to the US. Note also that the US administrationâs temporary Section 122 global tariff of 10% expires this Friday (July 24), so we may well see more US tariff announcements, especially ones justified by recent Section 301 investigations, in the coming days. Otherwise, there wasnât much data yesterday, but Canadian government bonds outperformed after the countryâs latest CPI print surprised on the downside. So headline CPI fell more than expected to +2.8% in June (vs. +2.9% expected), and the two core measures followed by the Bank of Canada were also beneath consensus, with median core at +1.9% (vs. +2.1% expected), and trim core at +1.8% (vs. +2.0% expected). So the 10yr yield in Canada only rose +0.8bps on the day, a smaller increase than the +4.4bps jump for 10yr Treasuries. Looking at the day ahead, itâs a quiet one, with data releases including UK unemployment for May and the German ZEW survey for July. Meanwhile from central banks, the ECB will release their Bank Lending Survey. Q2 earnings season will bubble in the background though. Tyler Durden Tue, 07/21/2026 - 07:39
US-Iran Fighting Enters 10th Day As Tanker Hit In Hormuz, Houthis Threaten Red Sea Chokepoint
US-Iran Fighting Enters 10th Day As Tanker Hit In Hormuz, Houthis Threaten Red Sea Chokepoint The tit-for-tat escalation between the US and Iran entered its tenth day as another tanker was struck in the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, the Iran-backed Houthis threatened shipping at a second strategic chokepoint in the southern Red Sea. US Central Command launched strikes targeting Iranian command and control centers, missile and drone launch sites, and air defenses to "further degrade Iranian military capabilities used to attack commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz." President Trump wrote on Truth Social, "Every time Iran kills an American soldier, they will pay for that killing many times over!" Still, Pakistan and Qatar are urging both sides to return to their positions before the latest escalation began on July 9. Iran says it remains open to diplomacy but will not negotiate under attack, while the Trump team has signaled that strikes will continue until Tehran stops attacking tankers and bulk carriers in the critical waterway. Reuters reported that mediators have proposed a 10-day ceasefire. Shipping flows in the Hormuz have all but slowed, according to new Bloomberg data. As of Tuesday morning, just six vessels have transited the critical waterway. The data doesn't account for ships turning off transponders. Bloomberg reports that Iran struck another tanker in the strait: Visible traffic through Hormuz came to a near standstill on Monday following Iranian attacks on vessels over the weekend. An oil supertanker called the Acheloos and a smaller fuel tanker were both struck in the waterway, according to Dynacom Tankers Management Ltd., the ships' manager. Early Tuesday, the UK Maritime Trade Operations said that a tanker had been struck by an unknown projectile in the strait northeast of Oman's Limah, citing multiple reports, without identifying the vessel. The notice indicates a separate attack to those on the Dynacom tankers. The flare-up in violence sent Brent crude oil futures surging in recent weeks to over $90 a barrel, with Goldman commodity expert Daan Struyven warning on Monday that oil prices could rally to $120 if there is no de-escalation. "Escalation in the Middle East and the decline in estimated Persian Gulf flows to below 45% of pre-war levels have pushed oil prices back up," Struyven said in a note to clients. Related: "We've Burned Through All Buffers": Oil Traders Warn Market Running On Fumes Meanwhile, US consumers are feeling the pinch again at the pump, with the national average for regular 87-octane gasoline topping $4 a gallon once more. This is the politically sensitive line in the sand at which the Trump administration takes notice and consumer behavior begins to shift down at convenience stores, gas stations, and QSRs (quick-service restaurants). Latest headlines (courtesy of Bloomberg): US-Iran Tit-For-Tat The US and Iran have exchanged strikes for a 10th consecutive day, with US Central Command targeting Iranian military command centers, launch sites, maritime capabilities, and air defenses. Iran has retaliated by attacking US military sites in Kuwait and Jordan. Trump vowed Tehran "will pay" after Iran killed three US soldiers. According to the Washington Post, US intelligence reports suggest US strikes are unlikely to move Iran. Iran's Khorramabad area in Lorestan Province was attacked earlier today. Diplomacy & Ceasefire Efforts Iran's Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni began meetings Tuesday with mediators in Pakistan as diplomats sought to salvage a collapsed interim deal. Mediators have proposed a 10-day ceasefire between Iran and the US to revive the interim deal, according to an unidentified senior Iranian official cited by Reuters. Iran's president said communication with Supreme Leader Khamenei has increased, per Tasnim reports. Regional Risks The Kaifan, an oil-products tanker owned by Kuwait Oil Tanker Co., was struck by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz northeast of Oman's Limah. The Houthi militant group in Yemen is threatening to blockade Saudi Arabia and target shipping in the Red Sea, adding to regional maritime risks. Southeast Asian nations expressed "serious concern" over the conflict, warning of spillover effects on regional trade, food security, and energy markets. Energy & Market Impact Goldman Sachs says Brent crude could top $120 per barrel by the fourth quarter if Strait of Hormuz disruptions persist, though its base case remains $80 per barrel assuming de-escalation. European natural gas futures extended gains, surging more than 20% over the previous seven sessions, as the conflict tightens supply ahead of winter. Pakistan and Bangladesh were forced to buy some of their most expensive LNG shipments in years due to supply disruptions from the conflict. Pakistan LNG paid about $21.88 per MMBtu, its highest since 2022, according to traders with knowledge of the matter. Tyler Durden Tue, 07/21/2026 - 07:20
Trump Weighs Massive Escalation in Iran As Houthis Threaten to Close the Red Sea's Critical Strait
Iran has escalated attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, putting three tankers out of commission while continuing to attack U.S. and allied bases in the region. Meanwhile, the U.S. delivered several massive strikes on Iranian infrastructure on the 10th consecutive day of retaliatory attacks. Now, Iran's tribal Houthi allies in Yemen have announced a blockade on Saudi Arabiaâs oil shipments through the Red Seaâs Bab al-Mandeb Strait. The Saudis were using the Red Sea to ship some of their oil, avoiding the mess in the Strait of Hormuz. Located at the southern end of the Red Sea, it connects the Gulf of Aden (and the broader Indian Ocean) to the Red Sea. If the Houthis are successful (most analysts don't think they have the capability to blockade the Strait), it would cut world oil supplies by an estimated 7%. According to the Washington Post, "Already, 10 percent of global oil shipments are halted by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which has been largely shut by Iranian threats and mines since the U.S. and Israel launched the war five months ago." The strategic situation facing the president is extremely tricky. His options have been shrinking since the end of the ceasefire two weeks ago. Iran's riverboat gamble in closing the Strait, hoping the pressure on the U.S. from allies to open the Strait would give them ceasefire terms better than they deserve, would require a capitulation from the U.S. that President Donald Trump can't accept. Meanwhile, Iran is hurting itself more than the U.S. in closing the Strait, as the halt to Iranian imports of fertilizer and refined oil products is making a collapse of the Iranian economy imminent. Trump knows this and is increasing the pressure on Tehran by a series of escalating attacks on Iranian infrastructure. Now that the Houthis have all but joined the war, the situation threatens to spin out of control and war could engulf the entire region. One option Trump is reportedly considering involves "a massive joint military campaign with Israel to force Tehran's capitulation," according to Axios. This "all in" option has been urged by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for some weeks, and given the strategic choices facing the president, it might be his best option. But not quite yet. Trump appears to be giving diplomacy one last shot. Qatar, Egypt, Pakistan and other regional mediators have presented the U.S. and Iran with a proposal for a 10-day ceasefire, two regional sources with direct knowledge of the effort told Axios. The Trump administration is exploring the proposal and has urged Israel to avoid steps that could close the diplomatic window, U.S. officials said. But Washington is simultaneously preparing for the talks to fail. The U.S. military has sent dozens of fighter jets and refueling aircraft to the region in recent days, assembling the forces needed for a major escalation. Israeli sources said the IDF is on high alert and preparing for a possible expansion of the war into a full-scale, coordinated campaign within days. Ten straight nights of U.S. bombing have failed to break Iran's grip on the Strait of Hormuz, dragging Trump deeper into a war he has repeatedly declared won. At least three U.S. service members have been killed in the renewed fighting. Trump said Monday he had ordered the Pentagon to make Iran pay "many times over" for every American death. âAs long as American hostilities in the region continue, the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed,â Iranâs Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said in remarks carried by the semiofficial Tasnim News Agency. This adds a sense of real urgency to the talks. It also makes a massive military action by the U.S. more likely. Iran is still trying to find a way to collect "reasonable service fees" for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. It's hard to overstate how terrible that would be, not just for Hormuz but for international shipping around the world. Iran has no legitimate claim to ownership of the Strait. The tankers would not be crossing in their sovereign waters. Accepting Iran's claim that it can legally charge ships for using the Strait of Hormuz is tantamount to piracy. The best outcome of the war at this point is to inflict so much damage on Iran that it is forced to drop its silly notion of collecting tolls and other ludicrous stipulations regarding its claims of sovereignty over the Strait and adopt a reasonable negotiating posture. Iran has not yet adopted anything "reasonable" in negotiating with the U.S., so the next best option is to force the Iranian economy to collapse. The fallout from that â including a nation of 90 million people starving and flooding neighboring countries with refugees â would be unacceptable in the short term. That leaves forcing Iran to the negotiating table to sign a deal beneficial to the U.S. and our allies in the region. Editor's Note: The Democrat Party has never been less popular as voters reject its globalist agenda. Help us continue exposing Democrats' plans to lead America down a dangerous path. Join PJ Media VIP and use promo code FIGHT to receive 60% off your membership.
Global situation makes Northern Sea Route more attractive â Russian senator
MOSCOW, July 21. /TASS/. The current global geopolitical situation, including the Houthi naval blockade of Saudi Arabia and the risk of the Bab al-Mandab Straitâs closure, is increasing the appeal of the Northern Sea Route as an alternative to traditional transport corridors, Konstantin Kosachev, deputy chairman of the Russian Federation Council (the upper house of parliament), said. "Current geopolitical developments around the world are further boosting demand for the Northern Sea Route, especially amid a new escalation in the US-Iran conflict. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles about 25% of global oil supplies and 20% of liquefied natural gas deliveries, has once again been disrupted. Rising tensions between Saudi Arabia and the Yemen-based Ansar Allah movement, also known as the Houthis, are creating the risk of the Bab al-Mandab Strait being closed as well. This is further increasing the appeal of the Northern Sea Route as an alternative to traditional transport corridors," he said at a roundtable on the development of the Northern Sea Route hosted by the Federation Council Committee on Foreign Affairs. According to Kosachev, "the absence of political risks" is one of the factors making the Northern Sea Route attractive. "The entire Northern Sea Route runs through the territorial waters of a single country, Russia. However, this is precisely why we are facing artificial barriers such as sanctions, which since 2022 have changed the practice of resolving maritime disputes and the way infrastructure operates," he added.