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Pentagon withheld dozens of U.S. military injuries in Iran war | Honolulu Star-Advertiser
Pentagon withheld dozens of U.S. military injuries in Iran war In the week leading up to the Iranian attack Friday that killed two U.S. soldiers and left one service member missing in Jordan, Iran carried out three other strikes against U.S. forces in the country. Those attacks injured dozens of U.S. service members and damaged several helicopters, according to several U.S. officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss operational matters. But the Pentagon did not disclose the earlier strikes, nor the casualties and damage they inflicted. The episode is the latest example during the Iran conflict of the tension between what the Pentagon says is the need for operational security and the government’s obligation to inform the public about the conduct of the war. In statements after airstrikes against Iranian military sites last week, U.S. Central Command said it was retaliating for Iran’s attacks against commercial ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, never mentioning Iran’s strikes on bases in the region, including in Jordan. Central Command is not required to release information about injured service members, especially when they quickly return to duty, a U.S. military official said. Don't miss out on what's happening! Stay in touch with breaking news, as it happens, conveniently in your email inbox. It's FREE! Moreover, another U.S. military official added, why would the Pentagon divulge information that could help Iran zero in on its deadly ballistic missiles and drone attacks in Jordan and other bases in the Middle East where thousands of U.S. troops are stationed? Central Command has also stopped announcing how many sites in Iran it hits each day for the same reason, U.S. officials say. In the days since the collapse of a fragile truce, the Pentagon has provided little information about the U.S. military strategy after nearly five months of war. The last major Pentagon briefing on the war was in early May. In the past several months, the Trump administration has failed to disclose how the Iran war has drained U.S. supplies of critical, costly weapons, and how Iran retained and rebuilt substantial missile capabilities. The subject of American casualties in the war is similarly sensitive. The deaths of two Army soldiers in Jordan on Friday and another service member in northern Iraq bring to 17 the total number of U.S. military personnel killed since the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran on Feb. 28. The Pentagon’s casualty reporting protocols call for publicly identifying deceased service members only after 24 hours have passed since next of kin were notified. The names of troops wounded in action are not typically released. In a statement on Saturday, Central Command said four U.S. service members wounded in Friday’s attack were taken to Jordanian hospitals and had been discharged. More U.S. troops received minor injuries and had returned to duty, the statement said, but it did not specify how many. And the statement did not mention service members injured in the three previous attacks in Jordan last week. In a brief phone call with NewsNation, President Donald Trump said the troops died “in service of our country” and reiterated the war’s primary goal of “never allowing Iran to have a nuclear weapon.” Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on social media on Saturday that the loss of the two U.S. soldiers would stiffen American resolve. More than 400 U.S. service members have been injured in the Iran conflict, according to Central Command. The Pentagon had periodically reported the total number of service members injured and returned to duty since early in the war, but it has stopped updating the overall figure in recent weeks. In previous administrations, the Pentagon usually delayed providing any details on injured service members until family notifications were completed. During the Biden administration, the Pentagon typically reported the number of service members injured in attacks by Iran-backed militias on U.S. bases in Syria and Iraq. More than 1,700 Iranian civilians have died in the war, according to estimates. This article originally appeared in The New York Times. © 2026 The New York Times Company
Iran's Houthi allies threaten to block the other main oil route
Yemen-based Houthi rebels vowed to place a "naval blockade" on Saudi Arabia on Monday, a move that could jeopardize another of the world's major oil transport routes and further deepen the fuel crisis that has wracked the world for months. The Houthis, backed by Tehran, said the blockade on the Bab el-Mandeb strait was a response to an "oppressive siege" on Yemen and would start "immediately." Iran had warned Yemeni rebel forces could shut down the Bab el-Mandeb strait, which unlocks shipping access to the Red Sea, if the U.S. continued with attacks on Iranian infrastructure in its ongoing war against Tehran. The U.S. launched fresh strikes on Iran for a ninth consecutive night into Monday, while Iran targeted U.S. military sites in Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain. Iran has for months kept its grip on the vital Strait of Hormuz shipping lane, through which a fifth of the world's oil and gas previously flowed, despite U.S. attempts to pry away Tehran's chokehold on the narrow waterway linking the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman. Traffic through the strait increased shortly after the U.S. and Iran reached a ceasefire deal last month, but has dipped once again after that agreement fell apart and strikes between the two countries resumed a week-and-a-half ago. The Bab el-Mandeb strait has been an alternative route for shipments not able to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Stopping tankers passing through the Bab el-Mandeb strait would put further pressure on the global economy, already strained by months of Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz. It could slice global oil supplies by roughly 7 percent, according to the Reuters news agency. This would further deepen months of spiked oil prices, chaos in the global markets, travel disruption and concerns among aid agencies that life-saving supplies won't reach vulnerable people, including in the most deprived or conflict-ridden areas. Houthi forces attacked commercial ships in the Red Sea shortly after Israel launched its war on Iran-supported Palestinian militant group Hamas in Gaza in October 2023. There were more than 100 Houthi attacks on shipping vessels between November 2023 and October 2025, according to the U.S. Maritime Administration, although the number of strikes on commercial ships dropped by 2025 following a ceasefire deal for Gaza in January that year. The Bab el-Mandeb strait lies between Yemen, Djibouti and Eritrea, and because it's used for international transit, states overlooking the waterway can't block passage through the area. Saudi Arabia has for years imposed restrictions on Yemeni airspace, as well as the country's ports and land borders, and is leading a coalition trying to dislodge the powerful Houthi rebels from swathes of Yemen and reinstall a government recognized by the international community in the capital, Sanaa. Saudi jets attacked the main international airport in Sanaa earlier this month, prompting Houthi rebels to fire drones and missiles at a Saudi airport just under 100 kilometers from the Yemeni border. It was the most significant flare-up of fighting between the two neighbors since the rebels inked a truce with the Saudi-backed government in 2022. Houthi rebels called the naval blockade an "an eye for an eye" response. The Houthi announcement on Monday came shortly after both the U.S. and Iran expressed fresh hopes for a peace deal, despite a ninth consecutive night of strikes by both sides into the early hours of Monday. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Washington was still open to a diplomatic solution, and said Iran had indicated to the U.S. it was willing to talk. "When America talks about diplomacy, it means imposition, intimidation, threats, and sanctions," Iran's Foreign Ministry said on Monday. Iran has received a proposal via mediators for a 10-day ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, Reuters reported on Monday, opening a path for negotiations to resume. Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Frances Mao and Robert Greenall
The Normandy Logic Behind Trump’s Escalation Against Iran
The latest U.S. operations against Iran’s coastal regions, now extending through eight consecutive nights of strikes, follow a nearly forty-day conflict earlier this year and the collapse of a fragile diplomatic framework. The Trump administration initially presented that war as a swift and decisive success. Yet Washington did not convert battlefield gains into a durable political outcome. Iran retained substantial leverage over the Strait of Hormuz, and the fourteen-point Tehran-Washington memorandum of understanding failed to establish the balance Washington had expected. The gap between military claims and political results soon generated pressure at home. The agreement drew sharp criticism from Republican lawmakers and conservative commentators, pro-Israel groups, and hawkish politicians. That backlash did not alone determine the administration’s next move, but it narrowed the political space for restraint. Trump then spoke of the United States as the power that would “take over” and “run” the Strait of Hormuz, while U.S. strikes reached Abu Musa and Greater Tunb. The growing focus on Iran’s coastal belt now carries echoes of Operation Neptune and the Normandy landings. Is Washington shaping the battlefield for broader action, or borrowing the logic of an invasion campaign without the conditions that made Normandy possible? Operation Neptune, the naval component of Overlord, began on June 6, 1944—D-Day. Its purpose went beyond bombardment: it created the conditions for landing more than 132,000 troops on the Normandy beaches. The Allies combined air superiority, naval fire, minesweeping, deception, and attacks on coastal defenses and transportation networks. Operation Fortitude misled German commanders about the invasion site, while air and airborne forces struck bridges, rail junctions, roads, and troop concentrations. The result was not flawless, but it established a foothold despite fierce resistance. The pattern visible in recent American strikes invites comparison. CENTCOM says its forces have targeted coastal surveillance and air-defense sites, military logistics infrastructure, maritime capabilities, and missile and drone storage facilities. The target set has therefore expanded beyond immediate anti-ship threats to parts of the transportation and support system behind Iran’s southern defenses. This does not prove that a ground operation is imminent, but it resembles the battlefield-preparation logic that preceded Neptune. One of the clearest similarities is the attack on lines of communication. In Normandy, the Allies sought to delay German reinforcements and restrict the movement of troops and equipment toward the coast. In southern Iran, U.S. strikes have increasingly hit bridges in Hormozgan Province, including around Bandar Khamir, along with other logistical and transport facilities. The logic is familiar: disrupt supply flows, slow the concentration of defenders, and narrow their freedom of movement. Equally notable is the effort to neutralize coastal defenses. During Neptune, Allied aircraft and warships heavily bombarded German batteries and Atlantic Wall positions, though many survived the opening attacks. In the current campaign, declared American targets have included anti-ship missiles, coastal air defenses, radars, command facilities, surveillance sites, and naval capabilities. CENTCOM has described strikes across Bushehr, Jask, Konarak, Abu Musa, and Bandar Abbas. The immediate purpose is to reduce danger to American naval assets and expand freedom of action at sea. Yet the same measures would also precede any attempt to seize islands or establish a coastal foothold. Another principle of amphibious operations is battlefield isolation—separating the engagement area from rear support. That is why bridges, ports, roads, and communications nodes are often attacked before forces move ashore. The strikes around Khamir fit this logic. So does the use of three Saronic Corsair unmanned surface vessels against a submarine and ship-maintenance facility at Bandar Abbas, described by CENTCOM as the first American combat use of sea drones. Their ability to cross the Sea of Oman and reach an Iranian naval facility shows the growing role of autonomous platforms in coastal warfare and raises questions about surveillance and counter-drone defenses. The similarities, however, should not be overstated. Iran’s geography differs fundamentally from Normandy. Its southern shores are backed in many areas by rugged terrain, while the Zagros Mountains complicate the movement of heavy forces inland. Numerous islands, long-range shore-to-sea missiles, drones, naval mines, and dispersed missile units would impose formidable costs. Nor are there clear public signs of the troop transports, landing formations, medical preparations, and logistical buildup required for a full-scale amphibious invasion. The visible evidence points more strongly to an expanding air and maritime coercion campaign than to an imminent mass landing. Even so, the tactical sequence matters. U.S. doctrine on joint forcible-entry operations emphasizes gaining access, suppressing defenses, isolating the objective area, and enabling follow-on forces. Several elements of the current campaign—attacks on radars and communications nodes, strikes on ports and bridges, pressure on coastal missile systems, and unmanned vessels—fit those preliminary functions. Yet Iran’s missile capacity, strategic depth, and ability to widen the conflict remain central constraints. Tactical resemblance is not evidence that a Normandy-style operation would be practical or successful. The expansion of targets may instead be part of maximum pressure designed to compel Iran to loosen its hold over the Strait. Trump has presented renewed strikes as proof that Washington is regaining control. But reopening a campaign the administration had already declared successful points to a deeper problem: military force has repeatedly produced destruction without securing a stable political settlement. Domestic Republican criticism and pressure from pro-Israel hawks help explain why further escalation became attractive, but they do not provide an end state. Another round of attacks may reproduce the same gap between tactical action and strategic result—at a higher cost. History also shows that amphibious operations carry enormous risks even with extensive preparation. Normandy succeeded because the Allies had overwhelming resources, coalition support, air and naval superiority, intelligence advantages, deception plans, and the capacity to sustain a massive force after landing. In Iran, regional retaliation, attacks on U.S. bases, and disruption in a waterway that carries about one-fifth of globally traded oil and gas remain serious risks. Strikes on bridges, ports, and coastal infrastructure also bring humanitarian and economic consequences to southern communities. The recent tactical pattern clearly draws on classic military doctrine. But the Normandy analogy is more useful as a warning about escalation than as a prediction of imminent invasion. Washington may be able to destroy coastal systems, isolate selected areas, or seize small positions. The harder task is converting those actions into a political order that does not depend on endless bombardment, blockade, or renewed war. If the Trump administration again mistakes operational reach for strategic success, a campaign intended to erase earlier setbacks could instead make them harder to conceal. The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.
Trump posts self-own by sharing poll that most Americans back ending his Iran war
Trump posts self-own by sharing poll that most Americans back ending his Iran war The White House framed the June 29 poll findings as ‘TRUST IN TRUMP’ President Donald Trump shared a poll from last month that found a majority of Americans back the end of his war in Iran, as the White House used the survey to urge voters to “trust in Trump.” The Big Data Poll was dated June 29, before hostilities between the U.S and Iran had fired up again. Trump posted the poll Monday morning on Truth Social, which found 60.4 percent of voters supported the Memorandum of Understanding between the U.S. and Iran — an agreement that was supposed to halt military operations in the region and eventually lead to a permanent peace deal and which has effectively collapsed. Since then, the bombing and retaliatory strikes have resumed, killing three American service members in recent days, and the crucial global waterway, the Strait of Hormuz, remains largely closed. The White House also touted the poll Monday, framing the findings on social media as “TRUST IN TRUMP” and “Voters Overwhelmingly Support Iran Peace Deal.” Many replied to the White House post to air their opposition to Trump’s war in Iran, which he unleashed on February 28. Podcaster and entrepreneur Mario Nawfal said that the poll Trump was celebrating is “for a deal that's already collapsed.” Another account said the poll was “psychological warfare on their own citizens.” The Independent has contacted the White House for comment. The poll cited by Trump Monday, now three weeks old, said the president’s overall approval had received an 8-point bump, putting the president’s rating at 42.9 percent. By contrast, a more recent Washington Post/Ipsos poll from July 8 - 13 had Trump’s approval rating at 37 percent, unchanged from the same poll in April. Trump only had a 29 percent approval of his conduct in overseeing the Iran war, according to the poll. It comes as American forces launched a ninth consecutive night of strikes Sunday as Iran ramped up missile and drone attacks on U.S. allies and assets in the Persian Gulf in response. “Iran has been very, very badly damaged,” Trump told reporters Sunday night. “We hit them very hard again tonight, and we did that in honor of the probably three — it’s probably three, as opposed to two — great patriots,” he said of the fallen U.S. service members. The Trump administration mounted a new wave of strikes earlier this month after accusing Iran of attacking merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran then launched attacks at Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Syria and Jordan, warning of a “full-scale offensive” should U.S. attacks continue. Join our commenting forum Join thought-provoking conversations, follow other Independent readers and see their repliesComments
Greek oil tankers struck by unknown projectiles in Strait of Hormuz | The Jerusalem Post
Greek shipping company Dynacom Tankers said two of its managed vessels were hit by projectiles of unknown origin on Monday while sailing off the coast of Oman. The re-escalation in fighting between the US and Iran is again threatening commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz as Iranian forces target vessels and the US moves to enforce its blockade of the country's ports. Dynacom said Kavomaleas - a Malta-flagged Panamax-sized tanker - was struck by two projectiles, causing a fire in its engine room and forcing its evacuation. "After deploying the shipboard fire suppression system, the master made the decision to evacuate the vessel," it said in a statement. All crew members were safely located by Oman authorities and transferred to shore, Dynacom said, adding that it was in close contact with all relevant regional authorities. British maritime risk management group Vanguard said the incident occurred as the vessel transited about 8 nautical miles northwest of Oman's Kumzar. Kavomaleas had been set to load oil products in the Gulf this week, according to shipbroking fixtures and one trade source. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency, which reported earlier that the vessel was on fire, said no environmental impact was reported. Second Dynacom vessel struck while transiting US-facilitated Hormuz corridor In a separate statement, Dynacom Tankers said another of its vessels - the Liberian-flagged Acheloos - was also struck by a projectile on Monday. "All crew members are safe, and all accounted for. The vessel has proceeded to anchorage while assessments take place. There are no reports of pollution at this time," it said. Acheloos is a Very Large Crude Carrier capable of carrying 2 million barrels of oil. Greek maritime security company Marisks said Acheloos and Kavomaleas were struck at approximately the same time and were both transiting via the US-facilitated southern Hormuz corridor. On Monday, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said two oil tankers "exploded" and were immobilized after attempting to take what it called an unsafe southern route through the Strait of Hormuz. On Sunday, the Guards also pointed to two ships involved in an "accident" in the same area. It was unclear if the two incidents were related or whether they were connected to the attacks on the Dynacom vessels.
Average cost of gas is back above $4 as renewed fighting in Iran war spikes prices
Gas is back above $4 a gallon as renewed fighting in Iran war causes prices to spike Consumers have made trade-offs to afford gas, including putting off necessary vehicle maintenance and cutting back on subscription services Gas prices are back above $4 a gallon as President Donald Trump’s war with Iran escalates. The U.S. average for a gallon of regular gas was $4.003 Monday morning, rising nearly 13 cents in a week, according to motor club AAA. Americans had endured nearly three months of soaring gas prices after the U.S. launched military strikes on Iran on February 28. Gas prices climbed past $4 in early March and remained above that threshold until mid-June, according to AAA. The renewed U.S. attacks against Iran in the past week include a blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway that transports 20 percent of the world's oil supply. Similar blockades and the threat of military attacks on tankers led to a virtual standstill in Strait shipping after the start of the war, driving oil prices past $100 a barrel in March for the first time in nearly four years. Gas prices followed and at one point jumped nine cents overnight in early May. The war’s impact wreaked havoc on consumers’ wallets. American drivers paid more than $59 billion in added gas spending by June 1 because of the higher prices. At one point, a JP Morgan analyst warned that the threat of $5 gas could “no longer be missed.” Consumers responded by making trade-offs to afford gas, including putting off necessary vehicle maintenance and cutting back on subscription services. The impact of gas prices was so severe over the past four months that it pushed inflation from 2.4 percent in February to 3.8 percent in March and a four-year high of 4.2 percent in May. The Trump administration seemed immune to consumers’ struggles. On multiple occasions, the president said that stopping Iran from using nuclear weapons was more important to him than the average American’s financial struggles. When asked by a reporter what he thought of May’s 4.2-percent inflation rate, the president responded: “I love the inflation.” The economy showed signs of recovery in June - inflation fell to 3.5 percent, the largest month-on-month decline in three years. Join our commenting forum Join thought-provoking conversations, follow other Independent readers and see their repliesComments
What we know about US soldiers killed in Iran war, and Iranian casualties
What we know about US soldiers killed in Iran war, and Iranian casualties Trump has expressed sadness and vowed to hit Iran ‘very hard’ to honour killed US soldiers. Trump: Latest strikes on Iran 'in honour' of killed US military personnel The United States military said on Sunday that a US service member was killed on Saturday in northern Iraq, where US forces are based. The US Central Command (CENTCOM), which is responsible for operations in the Middle East, said the soldier died during a controlled detonation of what it called unexploded ordnance on a downed Iranian attack drone. How many US soldiers died in the Iran war? The latest casualty announcements increased to 17 the number of US military personnel killed since the war began, and at least 420 wounded — with at least one missing. The war began on February 28, when the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran and the Iranians retaliated, hitting US military assets in the Gulf. First phase of war Before the US and Iran signed their memorandum of understanding (MoU) on June 17 to extend their ceasefire and continue peace talks, the US military confirmed 13 combat-related deaths across the region. They included six crew when a US refuelling aircraft crashed in western Iraq in early March. Additionally, one service member died of a “health-related incident” in Kuwait. Latest crossfire The MoU triggered a 60-day negotiation period. While ceasefire negotiations remained precarious, hostilities largely subsided until July 7, when the latest crossfire began. The US and Iran have traded attacks since then. On Sunday night, the US announced it had concluded its ninth consecutive night of attacks against Iran. Iran hit back with ballistic missiles hitting US transport planes at Aqaba airport in Jordan. The US military said earlier on Sunday that two service personnel died in Jordan and a third was missing in action. Also on Sunday, CENTCOM said that “unidentified remains” had been found at the site of Friday’s attack and that “an examination process to verify the remains is ongoing”. What are the names of US soldiers killed? While the US has not officially released the names of all 17 of the personnel killed in the Iran war, the US defence department on Monday released the names of two of them. Tyler James Feehan, 25, was killed on Saturday and Isabella Gonzales, 19, died on Friday during an attack on Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan. The “incident” is under investigation, the military said. On March 14, the Department released the names of six air force personnel who were killed during the refuelling incident in Iraq two days earlier: John Klinner, 33; Ariana Savino, 31; Ashley Pruitt, 34; Seth Koval, 38; Curtis Angst, 30; and Tyler Simmons, 28. On March 3, the department announced that Cody Khork, 35; Noah Tietjens, 42; Nicole Amor, 39; and Declan Coady, 20, died on March 1, 2026, in Port Shuaiba, Kuwait, during an unmanned aircraft system attack. On March 4, it announced that Jeffrey O’Brien, 45, also died on March 1 in Port Shuaiba. On March 11, the Department said army reserve soldier Robert Marzan, 54, died during the same attack. Benjamin Pennington, 26, died on March 8 of injuries sustained on March 1 during an attack at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia How has the US reacted? President Donald Trump said on Sunday that the deaths of the US soldiers in the Iranian attack on Jordan on Friday were “a very sad thing”. “We’re never allowing Iran to have a nuclear weapon,” he added. Trump said later that the US is hitting Iran “very hard” to honour service members who have been killed. “We hit them very hard again tonight,” Trump told reporters as he returned to Washington from the World Cup final. How do Americans feel about the war? A poll conducted by Reuters and Ipsos late last month found that only about one in four Americans believed Trump’s war with Iran was worth its costs. Most respondents expressed concern about the economic and security fallout. When else have US soldiers been killed in the Middle East? On January 28, 2024, three US soldiers were killed and more than 40 wounded in a drone attack on the ‘Tower 22’ site on the Jordanian–Syrian border. On November 4, 2016, three US soldiers from the 5th Special Forces Group were killed and another wounded when Jordanian Sergeant Maarek Sami Abu Tayeh opened fire on them as they were entering King Faisal Air Base in Jordan. They had been working as part of a programme to train Syrian fighters under US supervision. On November 9, 2015, when a Jordanian officer opened fire inside the King Abdullah II Special Operations Training Center, killing five people: two American contractors working in security training programmes, two South African security personnel, and a Jordanian trainer. Jordanian security forces responded and killed the attacker. How do the deaths compare to other US wars? The death toll in the Iran war is a fraction of the thousands killed in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Seventeen soldiers have been killed in the Iran war, which has spanned 142 days. In the Iraq war spanning 3,195 days from 2003 to 2011, more than 4,400 US military personnel were killed. In the Afghanistan war, which lasted 7,267 days from 2001 to 2021, more than 2,400 US military personnel were killed. What about aerial conflicts? The US death toll in the Iran war is still relatively low, though higher than in previous air campaigns, such as Kosovo and Libya. In the 1999 Kosovo air campaign, which lasted 78 days, and the 2011 Libya air campaign, which lasted 227 days, the US recorded very few or no combat fatalities from enemy fire. Accidents were the biggest risk. The overall death tolls were in single digits or low double digits. What do we know about casualty figures in Iran? On July 18, Iran’s Health Ministry reported that at least 50 people were killed and at least 500 injured in US strikes in July. From when the war started until the MoU was reached in June, at least 3,468 people were killed in US-Israeli attacks on Iran. They were aged between eight months and 88 years and included seven infants, 376 older children and 496 women. During that time, more than 26,500 people were injured, including at least 4,000 women and 1,621 children. Several key members of the Iranian leadership have been killed during the war, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, senior security chief Ali Larijani, the Basij paramilitary commander Gholamreza Soleimani and several other senior Iranian commanders.
First Thing: US continues attacks on Iran ‘in honor’ of dead service members | Martin Belam
Good morning. The US launched a ninth night of strikes targeting Iran early Monday, after announcing the death of another American service member – the third in recent days. Donald Trump said the new attacks were “in honor” of the US dead. The Iranian supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, warned of “unforgettable lessons” if the US kept attacking. Trump has threatened to target Iran’s power stations and bridges to try to compel Tehran to loosen its hold on the strait of Hormuz. Last week the US reimposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports. On Saturday, the military said it had redirected six ships and disabled one since then. Oil prices rose at the opening of trading in Asia on Monday, with the price of Brent crude climbing 2.72% to $90.50 a barrel. - Where have US service personnel been killed? The service member was killed on Saturday in northern Iraq during a controlled detonation of what was called unexploded ordnance on a downed Iranian attack drone. It was the third US death in recent days, after two military service personnel were killed in an Iranian attack on a Jordanian airbase on Friday, with a third missing in action. Since the war began, 17 US service members have been killed. - What is the US mission against Iran? The war was started in February when the former Iranian supreme leader was killed in joint US-Israeli strikes. Trump has indicated several motives for the war, including preventing Tehran from gaining nuclear weapons and trying to force regime change. On Sunday, the US energy secretary, Chris Wright, claimed the mission had shifted toward ensuring oil shipments could move through Hormuz, after the US-Iran ceasefire faltered. Mamdani exploring whether he can arrest Netanyahu if he visits New York New York City’s mayor, Zohran Mamdani, has said he is reviewing whether his administration could arrest Benjamin Netanyahu if, as expected, he visits the city for the UN general assembly in September. The mayor said he believed Israel’s prime minister “belongs in The Hague”, referring to the Dutch city home of the international criminal court (ICC), which issued an arrest warrant for Netanyahu in November 2024. Marco Rubio has announced a US policy of trying to “dismantle” the court. Early in his presidency, Trump ordered economic sanctions against the ICC, maintaining it lacked jurisdiction over the US or Israel. Netanyahu brushed off Mamdani’s arrest threats in a radio appearance, saying he was not concerned, and that New York’s mayor was “with the terror actors”. - What did Mamdani say? “I believe that Netanyahu belongs in The Hague. He’s a war criminal who has been charged by the ICC, and what you will find is that is an opinion that is held by many, purely because of what his actions have wrought over these past many years. Whatever the law allows me to do in New York City, that’s what we will do.” - What is Netanyahu accused of by the ICC? The warrant which the ICC issued for the arrest of Netanyahu and other Israeli leaders accused them of war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza, including “starvation as a method of warfare, and … murder, persecution and other inhumane acts”. Spain win World Cup after Ferran Torres breaks 10-man Argentina’s resistance Spain have won their second Fifa men’s World Cup. The reigning European champions enjoyed a 1-0 victory over Lionel Messi’s Argentina in extra-time at New York’s New Jersey Stadium on Sunday. Spain previously won the men’s World Cup in 2010. Spain’s women’s team are also the current world champions. - How did Argentina react to their defeat? In his match report, David Hytner described their response as “shameful”. Argentina instigated a brawl at the full-time whistle. Enzo Fernández was sent off during the game, while Leandro Paredes received a red card after the match for his part in the fighting. The team then turned their backs on the Spain players as the trophy was presented. - What happened to Donald Trump at the final? The US president, accompanied by Fifa president Gianni Infantino, was booed as they both took to the field for the presentation ceremony before Trump attempted to gatecrash Spain’s victory party picture. Trump’s appearance was the first time he has attended a match at this summer’s World Cup, which theUS co-hosted with Canada and Mexico. In other news … - US boxer Hannah Rapp was struck and killed by a driver while cycling, police have said. Investigators have arrested a 31-year-old man. - JD and Usha Vance have welcomed a baby boy, their fourth child and the first child born to a sitting VP in 156 years. - A second person has died in New York City’s legionnaires’ disease outbreak. Officials say they believe the source of the outbreak “has likely been eliminated”. - Andy Burnham will become the UK’s sixth prime minister in a decade after meeting King Charles III on Monday, replacing outgoing Keir Starmer. - Ryan Fox was crowned golf’s Open champion at Royal Birkdale in England, as the favorites wilted under pressure. Stat of the day: The Odyssey rakes in $264m on opening weekend Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey has stormed the global box office, taking $264m in its opening weekend. Building power: A year into a national guard deployment, DC residents say they live in ‘a city under siege’ Kirstin Garriss reports from Washington on the impact of roughly 2,000-2,500 national guard troops who have been patrolling metro stations, parks, city streets, neighborhoods and tourist attractions for months at the behest of Donald Trump and how communities are fighting back. Don’t miss this: What happened to Nolan Wells? Family seeks answers two weeks after 18-year-old’s death Two weeks after 18-year-old Nolan Wells was found dead following a 4 July boat trip to Horn Island, his family is still searching for answers. What happened on the island remains unclear, and as local officials continue their investigation, social media misinformation is rampant. Here is what we know so far. … or this: Sphinxes, movie stars and 3m books – inside Los Angeles’s beloved art deco library The architectural gem has been the backdrop to crucial movie moments, and touched by the darker side of LA life – serial killer Richard Ramirez was a visitor and a still-officially unsolved 1986 arson destroyed 400,000 volumes and shut it for seven years. James Bartlett was there as the landmark celebrated its centenary. Climate check: Most US voters link extreme weather to climate crisis, study finds Amid a summer of dangerous heat, drought and floods, a majority of Americans are connecting increasingly severe weather to the climate crisis, new polling shows, despite efforts by Trump to dismiss global heating as a “con job” and a “hoax”. Last Thing: Could AI be conscious? In building ever more advanced AI, we may be creating a new type of being – and this could be the most consequential thing our species has ever done. Yet we have essentially no plan for how to navigate this process ethically. William MacAskill and Lucius Caviola take us through this big idea: Could AI be conscious? Sign up First Thing is delivered to thousands of inboxes every weekday. If you’re not already signed up, subscribe now. Get in touch If you have any questions or comments about any of our newsletters please email [email protected]
How a Houthi blockade in the Red Sea tightens Iran's grip on global energy supplies
This is why it matters and what it means for the Iran war and the global energy crisis: HOW BIG IS THE RISK TO GLOBAL ENERGY MARKETS? It is not clear how the Houthis would carry out a maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia, its northern neighbour along the Red Sea coast, or whether it would include a return to attacks on shipping. Also read: Yemen's Houthis announce a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia Yemen sits on the Bab el-Mandeb strait - the southern gateway to the Red Sea - and closing that would open up a new front in the energy crisis and Iran's overarching conflict with the U.S. With Hormuz already disrupted, the Red Sea has become a critical alternative outlet for Gulf oil and other products. A serious disruption would mean both of the Middle East's major oil export routes are shut simultaneously. Iran's partial blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after Israel and the U.S. attacked it on February 28 disrupted most oil and other exports from the Gulf, raising prices and delivering a global energy shock. Saudi Arabia responded by diverting more than 70% of its normal daily crude exports to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Ships from Yanbu bound for Europe go north through the Suez Canal. Those heading to Asia go south through Bab el-Mandeb. Shipments from Yanbu averaged 4 million barrels per day in recent weeks according to data from Kpler and Signal Ocean, up from around 973,000 bpd a year earlier. Total petroleum volumes transiting Bab el-Mandeb amounted to 7.4 million bpd in June, or about 7% of global oil output, according to Kpler data, up from 4.2 million bpd last year. That has provided a lifeline for the energy market, helping to keep down global oil prices. Saudi Arabia is considering an expansion of its crude oil pipeline to the Red Sea coast, Reuters reported last week. When the Houthis launched attacks on Red Sea shipping in November 2023, Gulf oil exports were flowing freely. WHO ARE THE HOUTHIS AND ARE THEY CLOSING RED SEA ENERGY ROUTES ON BEHALF OF IRAN? The Houthis emerged as a military, political and religious movement in north Yemen in the 1990s, fighting guerrilla wars against the government in Sanaa. They have been in a civil war against the Saudi-backed, internationally recognised, government for more than a decade and have attacked Gulf neighbours with missiles and drones. However, a 2022 truce between the country's warring sides largely held until last week, when Yemen's internationally recognised government said it had struck Sanaa airport to stop an Iranian plane landing. The Houthis said Saudi Arabia was responsible and in response fired missiles at Abha airport in the kingdom's mountainous southwest. A senior Houthi official, politburo member Mohammad al-Farah, then warned in an interview on Iran's Press TV website that if the situation kept escalating, Bab el-Mandeb would be closed. Iran champions the Houthis as part of its regional "Axis of Resistance", which includes Lebanon's Hezbollah and Iraqi Shi'ite militias, though its ties with the Yemeni movement are less clear than with those other groups. The Houthis do not recognise Iran's supreme leader as their ultimate religious authority in the same way Hezbollah and the Iraqi groups do. Their motivations are mainly domestic, though the group is ideologically aligned with Iran. The U.S. says Iran has armed, funded and trained the Houthis with help from Hezbollah. The Houthis deny being an Iranian proxy and say they develop their own weapons. It is not clear how far the group's stance on Bab el-Mandeb and the Red Sea stems from its own strategic priorities or is being made on Iran's behalf. WHAT HAPPENED WHEN THE HOUTHIS ATTACKED RED SEA SHIPS BEFORE? After the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel, and Israel's devastating campaign in Gaza, the Houthis began firing at Israel and on shipping in the Red Sea, saying they were doing so in support of Palestinians. Also read: Why the Red Sea remains one of the world's most dangerous shipping routes The attacks severely disrupted global shipping, prompting Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd and other major companies to divert around Africa - a far longer, more expensive route. Red Sea traffic has not recovered since, with traffic through the Suez Canal down 52% in 2025 versus 2023 levels and at its lowest in at least 50 years, Suez Canal Authority data shows. A U.S.-led mission to restore free navigation in the Red Sea involved repeated strikes on Houthi targets and a defensive campaign that shot down hundreds of drones and missiles. But some Houthi attacks continued until last summer, only ending completely with the Gaza ceasefire in October. Last month the Houthis said they would ban ships linked to Israel from the Red Sea after Israel renewed military attacks on Iran. However, that threat was never acted on and shipping groups Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd are resuming some Red Sea routes that they had abandoned during the Houthi attacks last year, Maersk said this month. WHAT HAVE THEY DONE DURING THE LATEST IRAN WAR? While Hezbollah and the Iraqi groups joined the war early with rocket and drone fire after the first U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, the Houthis had been comparatively quiet. The group's leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi said on March 5: "Our fingers are on the trigger at any moment should developments warrant it". Iranian commanders have repeatedly warned that the Houthis could join the war. The Houthis launched a few missile and drone attacks on Israel in late March and early April. Revolutionary Guards Quds Force commander Esmaeil Qaani said on June 1 they could choke off the Red Sea. That may now have changed with their announcement of the blockade on Monday against what they called the "criminal" Saudi Arabia in retaliation for what they called the kingdom's siege of its ports and airports, including with last week's strike. (You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel) (You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel) Explore More Stories
Displaced civilians gather west of Gaza as Israeli forces control 70% of the territory
0 Comments Displaced civilians gather west of Gaza as Israeli forces control 70% of the territory A scene showing part of the large crowd of displaced civilians west of the city, following the Israeli occupation’s control over 70% of the Gaza Strip’s territory. July 20, 2026 at 2:41 pm Related Posts Trending - News 14 US refueling aircraft arrive in Israel amid Iran escalation: Report - News Turkish foreign minister urges return to US-Iran agreement, says Ankara coordinating with Qatar - News Israeli occupiers burn mosque, injure 4 Palestinians in West Bank attacks - News Israel threatens retaliation if Iran attacks - News US energy chief says Gulf oil flows nearing 14M barrels per day despite Iran tensions - News Iran says it destroyed US Fifth Fleet HQ in Bahrain and targeted bases in Kuwait, Jordan - News Iraqi Islamic Resistance offers $10 million reward for killing Trump - Article Sitting ducks: Why the US security umbrella no longer protects the Gulf? - Article Trump’s “Memorandum of Surrender”: The art of the deal meets the fact of defeat - News US Vice President Vance says Epstein had links to ‘top levels’ of Mossad
Yemen's Houthis to Impose Maritime Blockade on Saudi Arabia
Yemen's Houthis to Impose Maritime Blockade on Saudi Arabia The Houthis, an Iran-backed Yemeni group, said they would impose a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia, putting at risk the flow of millions of barrels that the kingdom exports via the Red Sea. (Bloomberg) — The Houthis, an Iran-backed Yemeni group, said they would impose a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia, putting at risk the flow of millions of barrels that the kingdom exports via the Red Sea. The blockade is in response to what the group says is Saudi Arabia’s siege on the Yemeni capital, Sana’a. The ban on Saudi ships would be effective immediately, the group’s spokesperson Yahya Saree said in a video published on his X account on Monday. tap here to see other videos from our team. Back to video Saudi energy officials were not immediately available for comment. The announcement adds to a slew of risks facing oil supplies from the Middle East. Maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, where about a fifth of the world’s oil flowed before the US-led war on Iran, remains near a standstill as Tehran and Washington stage tit-for-tat attacks. A disruption to supplies through the Red Sea, the route currently used by Saudi Arabia for bulk of its crude exports, would exacerbate the war’s impact on global oil trade. The kingdom diverted its oil supplies to key Red Sea port of Yanbu following the outbreak of the war and Iran’s effective closure of Hormuz. Those exports, which rose to a record 4.19 million barrels a day last month, have helped limit the disruption to global supplies, but the route remains fragile as it exposes tankers to the Houthi militants who have previously attacked ships in the Red Sea. The group disrupted shipping near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at the southern end of the Red Sea for months starting in late 2023. Traffic along the waterway nearly came to a standstill, forcing shippers to abandon the shortest route between Asia and Europe. Global benchmark Brent crude on Monday swung on the prospects for further escalation and detente in the conflict. It was trading 0.2% higher at $88.23 a barrel as of 2:06 p.m. in London. Tensions between Saudi Arabia and Houthis have been on the rise since last week when Riyadh attacked the airport in Sana’a. Houthis then attacked a southern Saudi airport, the worst flare-up between them since a ceasefire in 2022. —With assistance from Omar Tamo and Salma El Wardany. (Updates with past attacks by Houthis on ships in the Red Sea.)
Mediators Float 10-Day Ceasefire As Pezeshkian Tells Citizens Iran Engaged In 'Full-Scale War'
Mediators Float 10-Day Ceasefire As Pezeshkian Tells Citizens Iran Engaged In 'Full-Scale War' Casualties Mount on Both Sides The US military is bombing Iran for what is now the ninth straight day of renewed fighting, in a campaign which has expanded to include both civic and military infrastructure, also as Iranian retaliatory attacks keep up the pressure on the Gulf states, and have reached into Jordan, which deadly effect on an American base there. Iranian authorities have said at least 50 people were killed and more than 500 after the return to war in the last three weeks. State media has reported that eight were killed in a single bridge strike on Friday. American deaths have become evident as well, with US soldiers confirmed killed in a Saturday CENTCOM announcement. The Pentagon said Sunday a third US servicemember was killed in northern Iraq Sunday, in what's being described as an accidental death during a "controlled detonation" of a downed Iranian attack drone. Smoke rises near the oil facility in Mangaf, Kuwait. The US has identified that Lieutenant Tyler James Feehan, 25, of Ewa Beach, Hawaii, and Private Isabella Gonzales, 19, of Carrollton, Texas, were killed in the Jordan attacks Friday. They were there as part of the ongoing 'counter-ISIS' mission, the Pentagon further indicated. Proposed Ceasefire, Efforts to Reboot Talks Despite what has been several days of running escalation, Iran has it has received mediation proposals to restart negotiations with the United States, according to Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei on Monday. Baghaei told state media that the country will continue to defend itself resolutely. "I emphasize once again that the diplomatic apparatus continues to pursue its tasks jointly and in line with the defenders of the homeland in the armed forces. The proposals submitted through mediators have been communicated to us and have been received," the spokesman said. This as a new ceasefire proposal is said to be in the works, with the headline resulting in a drop in oil prices: MEDIATORS PROPOSE 10-DAY CEASEFIRE BETWEEN IRAN, US: REUTERS Miscalculation & 'Full-Scale War' According to more details of the fresh push for regional ceasefire via The Wall Street Journal: Mediators were working to push the U.S. and Iran into a new ceasefire Monday, fearful the two foes could settle into a pattern where they keep conflict below the level of all-out war but disrupt regional economies indefinitely and run the risk of a miscalculation that escalates the fighting. The efforts come after the U.S. carried out a ninth straight night of attacks, Iran retaliated against Arab allies including Kuwait and Bahrain, and another vessel in the Strait of Hormuz was hit by a projectile that started a fire and led the crew to abandon ship. Qatar has floated the idea of a 10-day ceasefire and an end to restrictions on shipping in the strategic waterway, mediators said. It wasn’t clear whether either side was ready to accept a new halt to the fighting after the preliminary peace deal they signed in mid-June collapsed earlier this month, they said. Joachim Klement, head of strategy at Panmure Liberum, has newly commented that investors "still think the US and Iran will go back to the negotiation table," and stipulated that "Only once the US is no longer willing to negotiate do we expect markets to price higher oil prices for longer." However, statements out of Iran do not suggest de-escalation, with President Masoud Pezeshkian having said Monday his country is engaged in a "full-scale war" with the US and that Iranians must be ready accept the repercussions of the conflict. "The reality is that today the Islamic Republic of Iran is engaged in a full-scale war. We must be realistic and accept the natural consequences of this resistance," Pezeshkian said. A few days ago, the Qataris submitted a proposal to regulate the Strait of Hormuz. A response from the leader was supposed to arrive yesterday, but it did not. The proposal includes establishing a new, designated corridor through which ships could pass, while imposing a… — Amit Segal (@AmitSegal) July 20, 2026 Pentagon Concealing Extent of Damage, Casualties: NYT The situation on the ground does suggest this, amid reports that the US side is concealing or downplaying the true extent of damage on its regional bases as casualties mount: Dozens of US military personnel were wounded and helicopters damaged during three Iranian strikes on American forces in Jordan last week, The New York Times reports. Citing anonymous US officials, it said the Pentagon did not disclose the casualties and damage inflicted during the attacks, which came before Iran’s strike that killed two soldiers and left one missing on Friday in Jordan. The total number of US personnel killed in the US-Israel war on Iran now stands at 17 with more than 400 wounded since the war was launched on February 28. “Central Command is not required to release information about injured service members,” a US military official told the Times as part of the weekend report. ⭕️ Iran FM Araghchi: Wars End Either Through Total Victory or Negotiations… Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi: 🔹 A war must be ended precisely at the point when you hold the upper hand on the battlefield. Ending a war is possible either through total military victory or… pic.twitter.com/kHeYhShsXC — Drop Site (@DropSiteNews) July 20, 2026 Houthi Blockade Against Saudi Shipping Meanwhile, Yemen's Houthi rebels have announced they are imposing a new maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia in response for a recent attack on Sanaa Airport, and after years of the kingdom leading a blockade of Houthi-controlled Yemeni ports. A military statement by Houthi spokesman Yahya Saree said the maritime ban on all Saudi shipping will be effective immediately in what he declared as an "equation of 'an eye for an eye.'" However, details of what this 'embargo' will look like, in terms of where or what chokepoints the Houthis might seek to blockade were not given. Last week the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen attacked the Houthi-controlled Sanaa International Airport, threatening a fragile truce that has been in place since 2022. Saudi jets had prevented an Iranian passenger plane from landing there, after the US-Saudi recognized Yemeni government warned against any Iranian planes entering the divided country's airspace. Within days of that incident, the Houthis reportedly sent missiles on Saudi Arabia - which was a first after years of relative peace. In addition to unveiling the anti-Saudi embargo, the Houthis spokesman warned that if the Saudi siege on Yemen is not lifted, then Houthi armed forces will move towards a full-scale war. Overnight Developments US and Iran engaged in another exchange of strikes after an Iranian attack on Jordan killed two US service members on Friday, while Tehran said it was suspending its commitments under the interim peace deal as strikes ramped up. US President Trump said we hit Iran very hard again tonight and hit Iran in honour of probably three patriots who died, adding we are ending any chance of Iran having a nuclear weapon. US Central Command announced the ninth consecutive evening of strikes against Iran, in which targets included Iranian military command centres, air defence and coastal surveillance sites, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites, and communication networks, to further diminish Iran's ability to attack commercial vessels and civilian mariners transiting the Strait of Hormuz. CENTCOM also announced it redirected 6 commercial vessels and disabled 1 to ensure full compliance, as of July 19th. Explosions were heard in Iran's Tabriz and the city of Jask in the Hormozgan province in southern Iran, while explosions were also reported in Sirik and Khormoj, southern Iran. Furthermore, there were explosions in Delijan in the southern Markazi province and Arak in western Iran, while air defences were activated in Konarak city, Sistan and the Baluchestan province in southeastern Iran. Iran launched missiles from its Lorestan province in western Iran towards enemy targets, and blasts were reported at US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, while explosions were also reported in the UAE's Ras Al-Khaimah. US is said to be planning for a wider war, according to a US official familiar with internal administration discussions, cited by The Washington Post. US Secretary of State Rubio said the US remains open to a diplomatic resolution regarding Iran, while Rubio also stated that his meeting with the Lebanese President was very positive. Iran’s nuclear agency condemned a US attack on the site of the nuclear power plant under construction in Darkhovin, which it said violated international law, according to Mehr News Agency, although it didn’t mention when the strike took place. Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi said the US strike on the under-construction power plant was a dangerous attack on Iran's peaceful infrastructure, and the US must bear full responsibility for any escalation and the resulting insecurity and instability. IRGC said it destroyed 20 warehouses used by US forces in the Azraq region of Jordan, resulting in the deaths of dozens of soldiers, according to Al Jazeera Mubasher. IRGC said two ships were involved in an “accident” after attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz via an unsafe route, and that two other vessels abandoned the route, while it warned that vessels influenced by the US and entering unsafe routes will certainly face accidents. It was later reported that IRGC said two oil tankers were blown up after attempting to transit the southern route in the Strait of Hormuz. UKMTO said it has received a report of the incident eight nautical miles northwest of Oman's Khumsar, with a vessel on fire, but the cause has not been verified yet. Tehran Times noted reports of an unprecedented rise in opposition to the war within various ranks of the US military, while it noted that refusals by US personnel to carry out orders from superiors are increasing at an unprecedented rate, citing multiple intelligence sources. Kuwait's Defence Ministry said Iran conducted sustained strikes against civil and critical infrastructure on Kuwaiti territory, which caused multiple fires and severe damage. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said negotiations with the US could be pursued based on national interests and that intermediaries have shared messages with Tehran in recent days. Mediators are continuing their efforts to prevent escalation, and we have received proposals from them, but we will not go into details now. He added that they will not abandon talks with the US but Iran's sovereign rights over the Strait of Hormuz are non-negotiable. Al Jazeera source in Pakistan's Interior Ministry said the Iranian Interior Minister arrived in Pakistan's capital Islamabad today. Iran and Pakistan will hold extensive consultations on border management, cross-border security and the implementation of the Islamabad MoU, alongside other issues of mutual concern, Journalist Mallick reported. The Yemeni Armed Forces said an announcement of an important position to be released at 3pm Sana'a time (13:00BST). Explosions were sounded in Isfahan, however reports state they were caused by controlled explosions. Additionally, Iran's Bushehr Governor said Bushehr was targeted twice by the American enemy. Unofficial reports indicate that one drone struck the grounds of Kuwait's main power plant, Tasnim reported. Tyler Durden Mon, 07/20/2026 - 08:55
Futures Rebound On Fresh Bout Of Iran Optimism As Hyperscaler Earnings Loom
Futures Rebound On Fresh Bout Of Iran Optimism As Hyperscaler Earnings Loom US equity futures rebound from Friday's selling, indicating a firmer start to the week with S&P futures rising 0.5% at 8.00am ET, and Nasdaq futures up 1% after a sluggish start to the session, after Iran’s Foreign Ministry said it had received proposals from mediators about the conflict with the US. In premarket trading, semis are higher as are Mag7 names; the AI theme is bid across sectors. Cyclicals are leading Defensives; both are higher in absolute terms, pointing to an ‘Everything Rally’ today. According to JPM, the US / Iran escalation is being faded with WTI lower pre-market and Brent off its highs. Bond yields are flat to up 1bp s the yield curve twists steeper. Commodities are mixed but net higher with US crude/natgas lower. The update from Iran has seen energy prices reverse gains with Brent now down 0.3% and on an $87/bbl handle. European stocks are now a touch higher with the Stoxx 600 up 0.1% Asian stocks were more mixed as a 4.5% plunge in the Kospi was offset by advances in China after two major state funds showed fresh purchases of domestic stocks. Bonds are still down but off session lows with Treasuries off by 3 ticks and yields up around 1bps across the US curve. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has been choppy but ultimately flat with the greenback mixed versus G10 peers. Spot gold is up 0.1%, while silver rises 1.5%. Bitcoin has been on the back foot, down 0.5%. This week is a light macro data with the next Fed mtg on July 29, today we receive the Leading Index. In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed (Nvidia +1.1%, Alphabet (GOOGL) +0.3%, Tesla (TSLA) +0.8%, Amazon (AMZN) -0.01%, Apple (AAPL) -0.6%, Microsoft (MSFT) -0.6%, Meta Platforms (META) -0.3% AMC Entertainment (AMC) gains 16% after the theater operator posted revenue for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate. Shares of peer Imax (IMAX) climbs 3%. Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) rises 7% after the restaurant chain reported second-quarter revenue that beat analyst estimates. Chief Executive Officer Russell Weiner said the company “drove meaningful order count growth” during the period. Fervo Energy (FRVO) rises 4% as Jefferies upgrades to buy following the stock’s recent pull-back from its IPO highs. Global Payments (GPN) gains 1.7% as Morgan Stanley upgrades to overweight, citing constructive checks on Genius and Worldpay businesses. Hut 8 (HUT) rises 13% after the data center operator and Bitcoin miner announced a second 15-year lease for its Beacon Point data center campus in Nueces County, Texas, that’s valued at $9.8 billion. Iren (IREN) climbs 8% after the owner and manager of data centers powered by renewable energy raised its year-end AI cloud annualized run-rate revenue target to more than $4 billion. LXP Industrial Trust (LXP) climbs 3% as Brookfield Asset Management and CPP Investments agreed to buy the company in an all-cash deal valued at about $5.2 billion. Urban Outfitters (URBN) rises 4% as Goldman Sachs upgrades to buy noting upside to the stock as the UO brand recovery bolsters profitability. Yeti Holdings (YETI) is up 4% as Goldman Sachs upgrades to buy, saying the outdoor coolers and insulated bottle maker’s growth outlook is becoming more durable. Futures are pointing to a positive start to cash trading as markets head into a week of contrasts: as Bloomberg notes, the economic calendar is sparse, but a deluge of earnings reports will test whether company results can match high expectations. S&P 500 futures were 0.5% higher as geopolitics once again dominated weekend news as fighting between the US and Iran escalated. Trump has remained silent so far on his next move, while average gas pump prices climbed back above $4 a gallon — a painful level for consumers. The next 2 weeks we get hyperscaler earnings, which are viewed as the next positive catalyst. As noted above, over the weekend US / Iran escalation is being faded with WTI lower pre-mkt and Brent off its highs, now below $90. Investors “still think the US and Iran will go back to the negotiation table,” said Joachim Klement, head of strategy at Panmure Liberum. “Only once the US is no longer willing to negotiate do we expect markets to price higher oil prices for longer... The sentiment among investors remains positively biased, despite the setbacks in the tech space last week. This bodes well for renewed market stability this week.” Still, stock index volatility is creeping higher as it catches up to much higher single stock vol, and demand for hedging is rising, with a measure of Skew jumping to its highest level since April — threatening to pull other volatility measures higher. Meanwhile, as Goldman noted overnight, extreme stock swings are tempting funds into reverse dispersion trades. High volatility in AI stocks, a plunging momentum factor, and ultra-low correlations across S&P 500 stocks are reasons for renewed interest in investment themes outside AI, according to Goldman. Meanwhile, pressure is building for the biggest spenders on AI to justify their expenditures to traders, with earnings reports over the next two weeks to be scoured for evidence that the investments are generating bigger returns. Ever the permabulls (since Kolanovich quit), JPMorgan strategists see AI-linked stocks as unlikely to remain under pressure for long, expecting strong earnings growth and improving valuations to reignite demand, led by semiconductor companies. Meanwhile, last week's release of Moonshoot Kimi K3 AI model late last week was followed by Alibaba’s Qwen 3.8-Max preview over the weekend — suggesting competition in advanced AI models is broadening beyond US frontier labs. Alphabet will kick off quarterly earnings from AI hyperscalers on Wednesday. The report comes at a time when chip stocks, the S&P 500’s biggest driver of 2026, have entered a bear market over worries that the likes of Alphabet won’t sustain vast outlays on the global buildout of AI infrastructure. “This week, we wait for the hyperscalers to report and especially pay attention to their monetization efforts and their capex intentions,” said Andrea Gabellone, head of global equities at KBC Securities. “This could calm the market.” uropean stocks recoup initial losses with the Stoxx 600 little changed at 641.78 as Brent crude advances with the US and Iran engaged in a series of tit-for-tat attacks. Ryanair is one of the day’s biggest laggards, falling as much as 6.9% after the airline’s results were hit by rising oil prices and fare reductions. Here are the biggest movers Monday: Lagercrantz rallies as much as 5.9%, the most in two months, as the industrial conglomerate receives upgrades from SEB Equities, Pareto and Handelsbanken following its first-quarter result Munters advances as much as 6.3% after SEB and DNB Carneige upgraded their respective views on the Swedish industrial heating and air company to buy, while Jefferies reiterated its buy rating DocMorris rises as much as 5.1%, the most in nearly a week, after the stock was upgraded to neutral from sell at UBS, which cited “a more constructive view” on the online pharmacy’s margin prospects PolyPeptide gains as much as 5.8% to CHF44.15 after Samsung Biologics agreed to acquire the Swiss contract drugmaker in an all-cash deal, with analysts saying the deal is fairly valued overall Fresenius shares advance as much as 2.5% as Deutsche Bank sees potential for an upgrade to earnings guidance when the German health-care company reports results next month Prysmian rises as much as 2.8% after the Italian company signed a 10-year agreement with Koch Inc.’s Molex to supply optical cables to data centers. Such a deal had been long awaited and is likely to reassure investors, analysts say Ryanair shares drop as much as 7.6%, the most since March, after a significant dip in first-quarter profit compared to the previous year as conflict in the Middle East lifted oil prices and impacted demand Nokian Renkaat falls as much as 10% after Nordea cut the tiremaker to sell from hold following its recent strong run. Analysts said the 10% year-on-year volume increase for the second quarter “cannot be maintained for long” Belimo shares drop as much as 9%, hitting a two-month low, after strong results from the heating and ventilation specialist were offset by its failure to explicitly reiterate its revenue guidance Segro shares fall as much as 1.9% to 880p each after the UK warehouse landlord rejected a third proposal from Prologis, which valued the stock at 993p, or about £13.5 billion for the whole company Corbion shares fall as much as 5.4% after Oddo BHF cut the food and chemicals ingredients producer to neutral. Analyst Robert Jan Vos said he sees a “real risk” of a profit warning at the July 31 earnings announcement Clariant shares fall as much as 5.2% after Morgan Stanley cut its recommendation on the Swiss chemicals company to underweight from equalweight, seeing continued pressure on earnings due to the Middle East conflict Asian stocks were mixed as South Korean equities were led lower by chip stocks, while Chinese equities were bolstered after state funds revealed fresh purchases. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index swung between small gains and losses. Korea’s Kospi slid as much as 5.1% after being closed on Friday for a public holiday, with chipmakers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix the biggest contributors to its decline. Chinese shares rose following last week’s rout, after two major state funds said they made fresh purchases and as regulators are set to meet with key industry participants. Japanese markets are shut for a holiday. Korea’s sharp swings “show that AI and semiconductor de-risking is not over,” said Charu Chanana, a chief investment strategist at Saxo Markets. “China tech is offsetting some of the regional weakness, but this is not a broad Asia risk-on move.” “Cheaper and more efficient Chinese AI is raising the bar for US Big Tech ahead of earnings: talking about another increase in capex may no longer be enough.” Asian sectors to watch Chinese coal and oil stocks jumped as the US and Iran continued to escalate back-and-forth attacks, heightening to the need to secure energy supplies outside the Strait of Hormuz. Kweichow Moutai’s shares rise as much as 2.6% after the liquor maker announced price increases, a move that analysts say is intended to defend margins and spur more direct-to-consumer sales. Chinese optical stocks rally after several major companies delivered solid 1H preliminary earnings. Chinese molybdenum stocks jump after CCTV reports on surging prices, tight supply and potential growth outlook. Shares of Alibaba gain as much as 5.4% in Hong Kong after releasing a preview version of its flagship Qwen3.8 Max model, describing it as second only to Anthropic’s Fable 5. Shares linked to Chinese battery makers mostly decline after the nation said it plans to impose a consumption tax for products including lithium-ion batteries and solar cells. Asian energy shares follow oil higher after fresh attacks across the Middle East resulted in the US announcing the death of a third service member in the past two days. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has been choppy but ultimately flat with the greenback mixed versus G10 peers. In commodities, news that Iran’s Foreign Ministry said it had received proposals from mediators about the conflict with the US sent energy prices lower with Brent now down 0.3% and on an $87/bbl handle. Bonds are still down but off session lows with Treasuries off by 3 ticks and yields up around 1bps across the US curve. Spot gold is up 0.1%, while silver rises 1.5%. Bitcoin has been on the back foot, down 0.5%. The only item on today's economic calendar is at 10:00 am when we get the June Leading Index, est. -0.09%, prior 0.1%. Market Snapshot Top Overnight News U.S. gasoline pump prices crossed the $4 a gallon mark on Monday as renewed hostilities between the U.S. and Iran further disrupt energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global oil supplies. National average retail gasoline prices have climbed more than 30% since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran at the end of February. The average pump price on Monday was $4.0030 a gallon, according to AAA data. ReutersChina’s “national team” of funds stepped into the equity market and made sizeable purchases in an attempt to bolster prices following last week’s slump. FT Chinese officials will contemplate stimulus measures, including accelerating bond issuance, after GDP fell below the government’s target range in Q2. FT Iran’s currency has sunk to record low levels vs. the USD as the country’s economy comes under further strain. FT Iraq is using a vast fleet of trucks to carry fuel oil through Syria and reroute flows away from the Strait of Hormuz. BBG Moonshot is getting ready for a Hong Kong IPO in as early as the next six months as it looks to tap capital markets after wrapping a fundraise that may value it at more than $30 billion BBG Hong Kong is considering extending equity trading hours to align with most global markets, including a proposal to eliminate the lunch break. BBG Andy Burnham was named the UK’s Prime Minister today, the country’s seventh premier in just over a decade. BBG TSMC is adding $100 billion to its investments in Arizona to meet strong US demand and ward off rivals, CFO Wendell Huang said, after beating profit expectations last quarter. BBG US President Trump posted "Wonderful news! I have just been informed that Giant Eagle, a GREAT American Grocery Company, will be lowering prices, by a lot, across more than 300 products this Summer, through Labor Day, to help hardworking American families". Top Iran News US and Iran engaged in another exchange of strikes after an Iranian attack on Jordan killed two US service members on Friday, while Tehran said it was suspending its commitments under the interim peace deal as strikes ramped up. US President Trump said we hit Iran very hard again tonight and hit Iran in honour of probably three patriots who died, adding we are ending any chance of Iran having a nuclear weapon. US Central Command announced the ninth consecutive evening of strikes against Iran, in which targets included Iranian military command centres, air defence and coastal surveillance sites, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites, and communication networks, to further diminish Iran's ability to attack commercial vessels and civilian mariners transiting the Strait of Hormuz. CENTCOM also announced it redirected 6 commercial vessels and disabled 1 to ensure full compliance, as of July 19th. Explosions were heard in Iran's Tabriz and the city of Jask in the Hormozgan province in southern Iran, while explosions were also reported in Sirik and Khormoj, southern Iran. Furthermore, there were explosions in Delijan in the southern Markazi province and Arak in western Iran, while air defences were activated in Konarak city, Sistan and the Baluchestan province in southeastern Iran. Iran launched missiles from its Lorestan province in western Iran towards enemy targets, and blasts were reported at US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, while explosions were also reported in the UAE's Ras Al-Khaimah. US is said to be planning for a wider war, according to a US official familiar with internal administration discussions, cited by The Washington Post. US Secretary of State Rubio said the US remains open to a diplomatic resolution regarding Iran, while Rubio also stated that his meeting with the Lebanese President was very positive. Iran’s nuclear agency condemned a US attack on the site of the nuclear power plant under construction in Darkhovin, which it said violated international law, according to Mehr News Agency, although it didn’t mention when the strike took place. Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi said the US strike on the under-construction power plant was a dangerous attack on Iran's peaceful infrastructure, and the US must bear full responsibility for any escalation and the resulting insecurity and instability. IRGC said it destroyed 20 warehouses used by US forces in the Azraq region of Jordan, resulting in the deaths of dozens of soldiers, according to Al Jazeera Mubasher. IRGC said two ships were involved in an “accident” after attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz via an unsafe route, and that two other vessels abandoned the route, while it warned that vessels influenced by the US and entering unsafe routes will certainly face accidents. It was later reported that IRGC said two oil tankers were blown up after attempting to transit the southern route in the Strait of Hormuz. UKMTO said it has received a report of the incident eight nautical miles northwest of Oman's Khumsar, with a vessel on fire, but the cause has not been verified yet. Tehran Times noted reports of an unprecedented rise in opposition to the war within various ranks of the US military, while it noted that refusals by US personnel to carry out orders from superiors are increasing at an unprecedented rate, citing multiple intelligence sources. Kuwait's Defence Ministry said Iran conducted sustained strikes against civil and critical infrastructure on Kuwaiti territory, which caused multiple fires and severe damage. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said negotiations with the US could be pursued based on national interests and that intermediaries have shared messages with Tehran in recent days. Mediators are continuing their efforts to prevent escalation, and we have received proposals from them, but we will not go into details now. He added that they will not abandon talks with the US but Iran's sovereign rights over the Strait of Hormuz are non-negotiable. Al Jazeera source in Pakistan's Interior Ministry said the Iranian Interior Minister arrived in Pakistan's capital Islamabad today. Iran and Pakistan will hold extensive consultations on border management, cross-border security and the implementation of the Islamabad MoU, alongside other issues of mutual concern, Journalist Mallick reported. The Yemeni Armed Forces said an announcement of an important position to be released at 3pm Sana'a time (13:00BST). Explosions were sounded in Isfahan, however reports state they were caused by controlled explosions. Additionally, Iran's Bushehr Governor said Bushehr was targeted twice by the American enemy. Unofficial reports indicate that one drone struck the grounds of Kuwait's main power plant, Tasnim reported A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk APAC stocks traded somewhat mixed following the US-Iran escalation over the weekend, in which the sides ramped up their strikes after two US service members were killed during an Iranian strike on Jordan, while key participants were away owing to the holiday closure in Japan for Marine Day. ASX 200 was rangebound with light pertinent catalyst and a lack of data releases overnight. KOSPI underperformed as the tech-related losses late last week caught up with the index on return from a 3-day weekend, while South Korea had temporarily banned new listings of single-stock leveraged ETFs tied to tech companies like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix to curb extreme market volatility. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp rallied with strength seen in energy and tech-related stocks amid higher oil prices and reports that launched a preview of its flagship Qwen3.8 Max model, which is said to be comparable to leading frontier AI models. Furthermore, the PBoC maintained its benchmark LPRs for the 14th consecutive month, while China’s leaders are expected to decide on additional stimulus measures at the Politburo meeting this month. Top Asian News HKEX is reportedly mulling longer stock trading hours, and scraps lunch break. China’s top leaders are expected to decide on additional stimulus measures this month following a sharp slowdown in Q2 GDP, with leaders expected to focus on speeding up bond issuance at their next Politburo meeting, expected to take place during the final week of July, according to FT. European equity futures are mixed, following on from a similar theme seen across APAC indices. Early morning action saw indices broadly subdued, reacting to the latest round of US-Iran strikes, where Iran officially suspended its cooperation in the Islamabad MoU. However, the Iranian Foreign Minister lifted sentiment after he stated that negotiations with the US could be pursued, based on national interests; he added that intermediaries shared messages with Tehran in recent days. This spurred some mild upticks across European indices. European sectors hold a very slight negative bias. Energy unsurprisingly takes the top spot, given the aforementioned geopolitical developments. Tech and Media complete the top three. The tech strength comes in contrast to the underperformance seen in APAC trade, whereby the likes of Samsung (-4.3%) and SK Hynix (-4.2%) both extended lower. No particular driver for the strength seen across European tech names, but potentially some positioning into a busy tech-earnings slate this week. To the downside, Travel & Leisure has been dragged down by a) elevated energy prices, b) Ryanair earnings. On the latter point, Ryanair extends lower by c. 5.9%, after reporting a miss on its headline metrics and sees lower summer fares citing waning demand. It also suggested that it has no visibility for H2, amidst the ongoing Iran uncertainty. Top European news UK’s Andy Burnham is to drop plans for a digital ID in a ‘reset of priorities’ and will focus on cost-of-living policies, when he becomes PM on Monday. FX 2G10s are mixed, but mostly firmer against the Buck with FX-specific catalysts light, and geopolitics not giving much of a bias. Antipodeans lead after reports of potential Chinese stimulus, GBP performs well into Burnham's appointment as PM. USD continues to be driven by geopolitics, with the Greenback reversing earlier gains in tandem with energy benchmarks after Iran’s Foreign Ministry noted the nation is open to returning to talks. Aside from this, fresh drivers are light with last week’s inflation (PPI/CPI) in focus ahead of PCE, with the data slate light in the remainder of this week. DXY saw a modest bid at the Sunday re-open to a 100.80 peak, though reversed as mentioned, to a 100.65 trough. Burnham is set to become UK PM after midday today. The main focus for GBP is whether he confirms Mahmood as Chancellor, after UK press widely reported last week that she would take the job, alongside any remarks around public control in the water/energy sector, and how this would be funded. Sterling is one of the best G10 performers today, sitting around 0.85 in the EUR cross and below 1.35 in Cable. The UK calendar today is light; the week sees LFS and Inflation data. Antipodeans are the best performers alongside a broad bid in Chinese assets, where its leaders are expected to decide on additional stimulus measures at the Politburo meeting this month. AUD/USD, NZD/USD +0.3%. Fixed Income Global fixed income benchmarks are softer across the board, but are off their worst levels following recent remarks by the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei, who noted that negotiations with the US could be pursued based on national interests, that intermediaries have shared messages with Tehran in recent days and that Iran will not abandon talks with the US. This constructive rhetoric by the spokesman comes amid a ninth straight day of strikes between the US and Iran. Iran killed two service members in Jordan and one in Iraq over the weekend, while the US continued to target Iranian military capabilities. Gilts (-16 ticks) are in focus today as Labour leader Burnham is set to become PM. He is to meet the King around noon to accept his appointment and then give his first speech between 12:30-13:00BST in front of 10 Downing Street. Although this will be widely watched, the key will be on who he appoints as the Chancellor. It has been widely touted that the current Home Secretary, Mahmood, will be given the role of Chancellor. Analysts see the 2s-30s curve flattening if Burnham's choice of chancellor aligns with market expectations, given Mahmood is seen as fiscally prudent. Bunds (-8 ticks) follow the broader space higher, given the recent fall in energy prices. This week's focus will be on the ECB policy announcement on Thursday, in which the Bank is expected to keep rates steady at 2.25%, with only a 16% chance of a hike in July. However, analysts continue to see further hikes in 2026, with 22bps priced in for a hike in September. USTs (-3 ticks) have returned to their opening price, trading at the upper end of their 109-00+ to 109-06 range. Not much on the docket this week, given Fed officials are on blackout ahead of their policy meeting. Commodities WTI and Brent Front-month futures are off their best levels after opening higher overnight in reaction to the military escalation, before waning in early European hours on continued efforts for diplomacy. To recap, the US and Iran ramped up their exchange of strikes following the death of a couple of US service members due to Iran attacking Jordan on Friday, while CENTCOM announced the 9th consecutive night of strikes against Iran, and Iran continued to retaliate against US interests and allies. Thereafter, initial weakness this morning emanated from reports that Pakistan's Interior Ministry says the Iranian Interior Minister arrives in Pakistan's capital, Islamabad, today. The downside was further exacerbated by commentary from Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei, who said negotiations with the US could be pursued based on national interests; Intermediaries have shared messages with Tehran in recent days. Further, the Iranian Foreign Ministry said it will not abandon talks with the US, but Iran's sovereign rights over the Strait of Hormuz are non-negotiable. Price action this morning has largely followed headlines. Brent Sep’26 hit an overnight peak of USD 91.42/bbl before moving back to lows of USD 87.72/bbl. Similarly, WTI Sep’26 notched a current high at 84.60/bbl before falling to a USD 81.11/bbl trough at the time of writing. Ahead, there could be some risk around 13:00BST as the Yemeni Armed Forces said “an announcement of an important position” will be made at that time. Precious metals remain in a narrow range but have lifted off worst levels in tandem with the Dollar easing in lockstep with oil. Spot gold resides in a USD 3,982-USD 4,030/oz range. Spot silver has picked up momentum in recent trade, back on a USD 57/oz handle vs lows of USD 55.50/oz. Base metals are mixed and continue with similar price action seen during APAC hours. Copper futures eke out mild gains alongside the outperformance in red metal's largest buyer overnight. Iraq's SOMO is reportedly looking to buy Aug-Sep gasoil deliveries, according to documents. Syria has emerged as a regional hub for Iraqi fuel oil exports, with more than a quarter of Middle East fuel oil shipments transiting Syrian Mediterranean ports, according to the Syrian state news agency. Oil loadings at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium’s terminal on the Black Sea coast were suspended following a drone attack. Trade/Tariffs US President Trump said maybe Canada should pay some damages for wildfires, and that he spoke with Canada's PM Carney regarding the fires, while Trump added that they have a good relationship with Canada and have no tension with anybody regarding trade. UK trade negotiators made last-minute concessions to India that could undermine Tata Steel UK’s Llanwern plant in Newport, to secure a much-lauded trade deal, according to some industry insiders cited by FT. Geopolitics Russia and Ukraine exchanged fresh strikes on warehouses and ports over the weekend. Ukrainian President Zelensky said that they struck three oil depots in Russia’s Stravpol region, while Foreign Minister Sybiha said Russia conducted its largest ballistic missile barrage against Kyiv since the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war, involving around four dozen ballistic missiles. Moscow's Mayor reported overnight drone incidents, and TASS estimated that the attempted drone attack on Moscow is one of the largest in several years, while Russian authorities said that 400 marches were launched towards Moscow although most were neutralised. Russia's Salavat refinery has reportedly restored some of its damaged capacities following a drone strike. EU is facing a collapse in support for new economic sanctions against Russia, with members refusing to back measures that could damage their corporate champions, according to FT citing diplomats. US Event Calendar 10:00 am: Jun Leading Index, est. -0.09%, prior 0.1% DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap From the World Cup to "Mapping the World’s Prices 2026", released last week and already attracting extensive global coverage along with more than 30,000 downloads. The standout theme from this year’s edition is just how inexpensive Japan has become, although the report is packed with data across 69 financially important cities worldwide. You can find the report here at the Deutsche Bank Research Institute. Just as you thought it was safe to relax into the summer, last week brought a reminder that there remain some big unresolved themes that could become an issue in thin summer liquidity. Brent saw its largest weekly increase (+15.9%) since April as the US and Iran continued to exchange blows, with European natural gas seeing its highest close since March. Over the weekend, the conflict has intensified markedly, with a fresh wave of tit-for-tat attacks underscoring how quickly the situation is deteriorating. Three US service members were killed in separate incidents in Jordan and Iraq, while US strikes hit targets including Qeshm Island and multiple locations in southern Iran. At the same time, Iran broadened its retaliation beyond military sites, targeting critical infrastructure across the Gulf, including power and desalination facilities in Kuwait, as well as launching drone and missile attacks towards US bases and regional allies. And prospects for any diplomatic breakthrough remained dim, with Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi suggesting that some nuclear issues may “remain unresolvable”. Tensions also escalated further in the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran signalling a far more assertive stance over shipping flows and claiming to have intercepted vessels attempting to transit the waterway. In response, this morning Brent is up +2.45% to $90.26/bbl after a ninth consecutive night of US strikes against Iran. Given the escalation US futures are performing relatively well with S&P (+0.15%) and Nasdaq (+0.47%) contracts higher. In Asia markets are generally higher but the KOSPI (-3.22%) continues its wild ride, though has improved from being down -5% as I’ve been writing this. Chinese related equities are strong, with the Hang Seng (+2.04%), CSI 300 (+1.55%) and Shanghai Composite (+1.18%) all higher. Elsewhere the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.17%) is edging higher, and Japanese markets are closed today for the Marine Day holiday. This means no cash US Treasury trading but bond futures are down on the higher oil prices. Staying in Asia, concerns continued to mount over the competitive progress of China’s AI ecosystem last week. We’ve been tracking the rapid climb of Chinese models and token use in various CoTDs with data updated in the WOW! pack (link here) showing the intelligence vs cost comparison of US and Chinese models. Chinese labs are seemingly catching up fast. The micro implications are as important as some Chinese models are being priced at levels broadly comparable to mid-tier US models (e.g. Anthropic Sonnet), despite performance that approaches higher-end systems, implying a materially lower cost-to-intelligence ratio. That challenges the economics of the current US-led AI stack, where frontier capability has been associated with very high compute and capital intensity. A key differentiator is approach: Chinese models are increasingly released as open-weight systems, allowing developers and enterprises to download, modify and run them locally, whereas US leaders have largely pursued closed, proprietary models delivered via APIs. This open approach accelerates adoption, innovation and cost competition, as it decentralises development and reduces reliance on a small number of providers, but also undermines pricing power and control. The immediate market reaction—pressure on AI and semiconductor names—reflects a reassessment of whether the industry’s current capex trajectory is sustainable if similar performance can be delivered more cheaply. More broadly, successive Chinese releases are eroding the scarcity premium embedded in proprietary models, accelerating a shift toward commoditisation, tighter margins and faster global diffusion as open-weight systems lower barriers to entry. At the macro level, this could encourage faster, wider and cheaper adoption of AI which will be more positive for productivity. However, it also raises the risk of a capex overcycle in the US if returns on AI infrastructure come under pressure, while also intensifying geopolitical fragmentation as competing technology stacks evolve. So an absolutely fascinating development to watch. It’s hard to underestimate its importance. Back to the more mundane, and for the week ahead, the ECB decision on Thursday and the global flash PMIs on Friday will be the main macro highlights. Alongside this, a new Prime Minister in the UK today, and a heavy run of global earnings will keep markets busy, with key reports from Alphabet, Tesla, Intel, SK Hynix and SAP, among others, offering an important read on tech as we see a major wobble in the sector. In the US, the calendar is comparatively quiet, with Fed officials in blackout ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting next week. Thursday brings initial jobless claims, which we expect to continue signalling a stable labour market, consistent with the recent downward trend in both initial and continuing claims. This week’s release coincides with survey week for payrolls, which gives it slightly more importance. On Friday, the July flash PMIs will be the main focus. The week begins today with the UK seeing a change in leadership as Andy Burnham takes office as Prime Minister, with ministers beginning to be appointed, and policy plans starting to take shape. Tomorrow, UK labour market data will be released, followed by Wednesday’s June inflation report, where our UK economist expects headline CPI to ease to 2.70% year-on-year, core CPI to 2.55%, and services inflation to moderate to 3.45%. The UK week concludes on Friday with retail sales, the GfK consumer confidence index, and the Bank of England’s DMP survey, all of which will provide further colour on the consumer backdrop. Elsewhere in Europe, tomorrow sees the release of the German and Eurozone ZEW surveys, while Thursday’s ECB decision is the key focal point. Markets are currently pricing a hold, which aligns with our European economists’ expectations, with a further rate increase more likely in September. The ECB will also publish its bank lending survey tomorrow and its consumer expectations survey on Friday, offering additional insight into credit conditions and inflation expectations. In Asia, the main focus will be on Japan, where Wednesday’s trade balance will provide an update on external dynamics, followed by Friday’s national CPI. Our Japan economist expects core CPI to rise to 1.7% year-on-year, with core-core inflation edging up to 1.9%, pointing to a gradual firming in underlying price pressures. Elsewhere, Australia’s labour force survey on Thursday will be the key regional release. Finally, the Q2 earnings season accelerates significantly over the week. Momentum gets going tomorrow with a broad set of financials and industrials reporting including Novartis, Charles Schwab and General Motors. Wednesday is one of the busiest days, with major technology names such as Alphabet and Tesla reporting alongside IBM, ServiceNow and Texas Instruments, as well as a range of European corporates including Banco Santander and Deutsche Boerse. Thursday continues the heavy flow with Intel, SK Hynix and SAP among the highlights, alongside a wide range of US and European names including Roche, Nestlé, Lockheed Martin and BNP Paribas. The week concludes on Friday with results from American Express, NextEra Energy and Verizon, among others. Recapping last week now, geopolitics remained top of the agenda for markets, with a sharp rise in oil prices as the strikes between the US and Iran showed no sign of easing. Indeed, Brent crude oil prices ended the week up +15.91% (+4.59% Friday) at $88.10/bbl, marking their biggest weekly jump since April. So that revived fears about a more persistent inflation shock, particularly with European natural gas prices also rising, and the front-end future rose +19.95% last week (+5.79% Friday) to its highest level since March at €58.01/MWh. Geopolitical fears also interacted with fresh concerns around the AI trade, which meant that equities took a hit around the world. That was particularly clear for chip stocks, with the Philly semiconductor index down -9.97% last week (-1.63% Friday), marking its biggest weekly decline since the week of the Liberation Day tariff announcements last year. Moreover, that meant the index moved into a bear market, having now shed -20.23% since its closing peak back on June 22. In turn, that coincided with other equity declines, with the S&P 500 down -1.55% (-1.01% Friday), and Japan’s Nikkei also had its biggest decline since the week of Liberation Day, falling -6.44%. However, European equities were relatively resilient, with the STOXX 600 up +0.07% over the week (-0.34% Friday). As all that was going on, US Treasuries rallied last week thanks to a softer than expected US CPI print. So that meant investors priced out the chance of a July rate hike, which fell from 34% to 14% over the course of the week. Meanwhile, the 2yr Treasury yield fell -2.9bps (+3.8bps Friday) to 4.18%, and the 10yr Treasury yield fell -1.3bps (-0.5bps Friday) to 4.55%. But whilst inflation fears fell back in the US, they returned strongly in Europe thanks to the rise in energy prices, with the 1yr Euro inflation swap up +46.9bps last week to 2.50%. So sovereign bond yields moved higher across the continent, with the 10yr bund yield up +6.0bps (-0.8bps Friday) to 3.12%. Finally, the dollar index weakened -0.19% last week, as investors dialled back the prospect of an imminent Fed rate hike, while gold fell below $4,000 for the first time this year before ending the week at $4,017/oz (-2.49% on the week). Otherwise, credit spreads mostly widened, with US IG (+1bps) and HY (+2bps) spreads rising marginally, along with Euro IG (+1bps) and HY (+3bps). Tyler Durden Mon, 07/20/2026 - 08:33
US-Iran War: Can a 10-Day Ceasefire Break the Iran-US Deadlock? Mediators Make Fresh Push| News18
US-Iran War: Can a 10-Day Ceasefire Break the Iran-US Deadlock? Mediators Make Fresh Push| News18 India International mediators have proposed a 10-day ceasefire between Iran and the United States in an effort to de-escalate hostilities and revive an interim agreement reached earlier. According to a senior Iranian official, the proposal is aimed at creating space for fresh diplomatic negotiations after weeks of heightened military tensions.The proposed truce comes as both sides continue to weigh their next steps amid a volatile regional security environment. If accepted, the temporary ceasefire could provide a crucial window for diplomacy and help prevent a broader conflict in the Middle East. n18oc_indian18oc_breaking-newsNews18 Mobile App - https://onelink.to/desc-youtubeLast Updated: July 20, 2026, 17:59 IST Advertisement more Videos Check Sonam Wangchuk Jantar Mantar Protest News, Parliament Monsoon Session 2026, Iran US Israel War Latest Updates Today And UGC NET Answer Key Link.
Iran 'Considering' Ground Incursion Into Kuwait To Seize US Bases: Report
Iran may be weighing a ground assault on American military installations in Kuwait, with the possibility of taking US troops hostage, if Washington does not halt its ongoing air campaign against Tehran. Multiple reports claimed the development on Monday, citing remarks from an Iranian analyst and a former foreign minister. Kuwait hosts a significant American military presence, including Camp Buehring, Camp Arifjan and Ali Al Salem Air Base, all of which have already been targeted in repeated Iranian missile and drone strikes since the war broke out in late February. ALSO READ | 'This Isn't Venezuela': Iran Won't Back Down Under US Threats, Says FM Araghchi As Tensions Escalate According to the reports, these two bases are now being discussed within Iran as potential targets for a land operation rather than aerial strikes alone. Iranian analyst Mahdi Khanalizadeh was cited as saying such an operation could involve capturing "100 US soldiers hostage," who would then be moved into Iranian territory. He was further quoted warning that Gulf capitals, not Tehran, ought to brace for the consequences of continued conflict: "the city that should be evacuated is not Tehran; it is Doha, Manama, Abu Dhabi, and Kuwait." He added that continued American strikes could trigger a much wider war, warning "a flood of American blood will flow in the region" and that Iran would recognise "no political border" as safe if it moved to a "full-scale offensive." Separately, former Iranian foreign minister Manouchehr Mottaki, who now serves in Iran's parliament, reportedly floated the idea of a ground assault on a US base as a way to seize American personnel and bring them back to Iran. ALSO READ | Iran Attacks Kuwait's Power Station, Water Desalination Plant As US Strikes Continue - Video The reports also cited warnings that any country assisting the US in a ground invasion of Iran would be treated as effectively declaring war on Tehran, with Iran's Land Force said to be prepared to retaliate against any state that takes part. It is worth noting that these statements come from individual Iranian commentators and a former official rather than a confirmed government or military directive, and no formal decision by Tehran to launch a ground operation has been officially announced. Essential Business Intelligence, Sharp Market Insights, Practical Personal Finance Advice, Daily Fuel, Gold and Silver Prices and Latest Stories — On NDTV Profit.
US military identifies 2 soldiers killed in Iranian attack on Jordan as from Texas and Hawaii
WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. military on Monday identified two soldiers killed in action last week as part of the war with Iran. The Defense Department said in a statement that 1st Lt. Tyler James Feehan, 25, of Ewa Beach, Hawaii, and Pvt. Isabella Gonzales, 19, of Carrollton, Texas, were killed in Jordan, where they were supporting a U.S. mission against the Islamic State group. It’s unclear how they were killed. On Saturday, the U.S. Central Command said two service members were killed in Jordan while defending against Iranian ballistic missile and drone attacks. The U.S. military has said the total number of deaths in the war with Iran is 17. The deaths reflect the complicated reality that American soldiers don’t need to be on the ground in Iran for there to be lethal risks in a conflict that involves drones, missiles and airplanes. American forces are arrayed across the Middle East, making other nations targets of Iran as the fighting has escalated after a breakdown in peace talks. President Donald Trump, a Republican, has said the war is necessary to stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons. First fatalities came soon after the war started Shortly after the war began on Feb. 28, an Iranian drone strike at a civilian port in Kuwait killed six American soldiers. The soldiers were part of a supply and logistics unit based in Iowa who were working at a shipping container-style building that had no defenses. A seventh soldier died more than a week after being wounded during a March 1 attack by Iran on the Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia. Later in March, six service members were killed when a KC-135 refueling aircraft supporting U.S. military operations against Iran crashed in Iraq. The aircraft was in “friendly” airspace when an unspecified incident involving another aircraft took place, according to U.S. Central Command. On Monday, the U.S. military said a Navy pilot died in a helicopter crash in the Arabian Sea. The Navy initially described the July 1 crash as an emergency landing and said there was “no indication the emergency was caused by hostile action.” The remaining three sailors aboard the helicopter were rescued. Drones and missiles still claiming lives The latest U.S. military death from the conflict was on Saturday in northern Iraq when an American service member in northern Iraq was killed during a “controlled detonation” of unexploded ordnance from a downed Iranian drone, U.S. Central Command said Sunday. A second service member was wounded and was receiving medical treatment for a minor injury. The military said it was withholding additional information until 24 hours after families had been notified. The deaths in the war are not limited to Americans. Iranian authorities said at least 50 people have been killed and more than 500 wounded in U.S. strikes in the past three weeks, including eight killed in a strike on a bridge Friday. People working on ships, as well as foreign workers and others in Gulf nations, Israel and Lebanon have also perished in the conflict.
Iran War: Brief US Pause Followed by Renewed Strikes as Iran Intensifies Attacks on Bases and Kuwait Desalination; Continued Speculation About US Operation | naked capitalism
Over the weekend, after exchanges where the US hit bridges and a desalination plant in Iran (reportedly repaired very quickly) and Iran’s response included hitting a much more important desalination and power plant in Kuwait and pounding important US operations in Jordan, the US attacks fell way back one night and CENTCOM and even Trump were quiet. Some speculated that more Gulf states were denying the US the use of their airspace and the US was having to make a major regrouping. However, the US resumed strikes last night, with the pretext that the US had suffered two more military deaths on top of two just reported.1 Trump had promised intensified strikes beginning more or less today if Iran did not return to negotiations, as in capitulate. And as many noted, the US had escalated last week, albeit not to the level of attacks during the initial phase of the war, not just with the number of strikes but also the targeting: the aforementioned desalination plant, bridges, too close for comfort to the Bushehr nuclear plant2 and to a nuclear site under development at Darkhovin. Many have argued that the latest round of strikes look like shaping attacks in preparation for a ground operation, which pretty much everyone with even a modicum of military knowledge sees as insane.3 Daniel Davis has also mentioned in passing that despite all the noise about using ground forces and other signs of a buildup, such as more refueling tankers flying to Jordan, that Trump was shaken by the near-disaster at Isfahan, where a supposed rescue of a downed pilot resulted in the loss of more air assets than in any single engagement since Vietnam. Many experts have contended that that was an actual operation, a botched attempt to remove some of Iran’s “nuclear dust.” However, Scott Ritter may have squared that circle. See his brief clip starting at 11:55: From a lightly-edited machine transcript: Jawaid: Scott Ritter thinks that Israeli lap dog Trump will soon launch a ground invasion of Iran, but he will fail miserably. Also, this is something Iran has been wanting Trump to commit to for a long time. Ritter: There’s a a mission called a raid. Um, and I, you know, we already had US troops fighting on the ground. We did a raid to rescue a pilot. We were in limited ground combat operations there. I think there’s a high potential that the US will conduct a raid here and there because that’s a that’s a a very specific task. A raid is is the only military mission where we plan to retreat. You know, every other military mission there’s no plan. You commit and you go, but a raid is in and out. So maybe we can do a raid, but the idea that we’re going to land in seize territory, there’s zero chance that will happen because there’s zero chance of success. Now admittedly, if pilot rescue came about as the result of the botched operation in Isfahan, that would be debatable as a raid. Even though the intent again was to retreat, the US would have had to stage equipment for the removal and transport of nuclear material, so there would be a short-lived occupation of terrain and not just a fast snatch and grab, as with Maduro. Nevertheless, the US military may not be totally suicidal, so the plan may be for a fast landing to inflict some sort of concrete form of damage that cannot be well inflicted from the air and then to decamp. This segment also includes a very informative explanation of how important the operations in Jordan are to the US, and how the Iran intend is destroy bases so that the US has to retreat to Israel and then Iran will proceed forcefully against the remaining assets there. We’ll soon turn to updates, but to start with some bigger picture considerations: it is disconcerting to see how many commentators resort to the trope that neither side can prevail on the battlefield, that they will in the end negotiate an outcome. As we pointed out, a study of modern wars found that more than half did not. The distrust between the two sides, which has now reached the level of mutual loathing as a result of the fast breakdown of the already likely to fail Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), means any “deal” is vanishingly unlikely. Iran knew even before it entered into talks that the US and Israel intended to execute a “mowing the lawn” strategy, of keeping crippling sanctions in place and beating up on Iran every so often to weaken it and hopefully create severe internal divisions that would trigger an overthrow or balkanization. Even if Iran’s 47 year record of taking severe punishment and surviving says this plot would probably fail, Iran had been preparing since the Iraq War for the US and Israel to launch a major campaign. After the illegal launch, the assassination of a major part of Iran’s leadership, as well as war crimes exemplified by the massacre of school children in Minab, the nation is highly unified around inflicting a decisive defeat on the US, so that it won’t even think about military action against Iran for at least a decade. We were far from alone in making that case early in the war and Iran’s resolve has only stiffened as it can see how it has weakened the US while Iran has learned from combat and claims to have even bigger inventories of key weapons than it had at the start of the war. Critically, Iranian leaders have said, bluntly, that negotiating with the US is not just pointless but also demeaning. Consider the germane parts of a recent statement by the Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei,4 as summarized at PressTV: - Leader said the United States had once again violated the memorandum of understanding signed between the presidents of Iran and the US, proving that the signature of the American president is worthless and unreliable. - He said bullying, hegemonic ambition, and savagery are inseparable characteristics of the United States and that Washington had once again revealed its true, unmasked face to the world. - He described the latest developments – US attacks against southern Iran, mainly targeting the civilian infrastructure – as further evidence of America’s deceitfulness, irrationality, unreliability, and wickedness. - Leader said the United States is seeking to ignite further war despite facing heavier costs and greater disgrace. - He warned that the Iranian nation and the Resistance Front have unforgettable lessons for the United States, adding that the bravery of Islamic resistance fighters and the courageous people of southern Iran have already demonstrated examples of those lessons. However, Araghchi subsequently gave an interview which can be read as pushing back against the Supreme Leader:5 Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says that negotiations with the U.S. should be pursued even if the chances of success are only 10 percent, further highlighting disagreements between Iran’s political and military echelons. “I am the Foreign Minister for the interests of… pic.twitter.com/uW1DzcfRhG — Ariel Oseran أريئل أوسيران (@ariel_oseran) July 19, 2026 Keep in mind also that China is still bleating about the need to settle the conflict and Pakistan and Qatar (among others) are also pressing for a resumption of the talks, so Araghchi as Foreign Minister has to keep the idea in play, irrespective of whether he privately places much stock in the idea.6 And there is another way to read Araghchi’s talk: So they wanted to manufacture a clean record of “we exhausted every diplomatic option." Once that record existed, the hardliners with Mojtaba could shut the process down without looking like the ones who refused talks. Moderates who pushed the channel now own the failure, and… https://t.co/Y63yYJVaEZ — Vonbury Research (@VonburyResearch) July 19, 2026 Kinetic action seems likely to continue to dominate: ADVISOR TO IRANIAN SUPREME LEADER, MOHSEN REZAEI, SAYING: “I declare it is over. Both negotiation and war are over. If in the next two or three days the Americans continue the war, we will enter a phase of complete offense and destruction.”#Iran #IranWar pic.twitter.com/1M3A1pboH9 — Iran Now – WANA (@WANA_Iran) July 18, 2026 Robert Pape also seems confident that US escalation will continue7. I found this discussion noteworthy because Andrew Neil strongly resisted the idea that there would be no negotiated ending and also found it inconceivable that Iran could become, as Pape has argued, the fourth world power. In other words, Neil seems to epitomize a set of normally pretty smart people who find it hard to see where the direction of travel is going because those outcomes so conflict with their priors: From a lightly cleaned up machine transcript: Pape: This is not what’s coming in the next few weeks likely. What’s much more likely is he’s [Trump’s] going to do the close blockade and if he can then use the southern corridor with that close blockade to reopen the Strait, he’ll he’ll be probably satisfied with that. Very unlikely that’s going to work and that’s why you’ve got the 82nd Airborne and the Marines there to push back further. Now, I’m not saying this is going to work, Andrew…. Neil: So, I’ve got to ask you some questions in this because I’m unclear. Do you think that the of the limited options President Trump now has, that escalation as you describe it is the most likely? Pape: Yes. Neil: And that escalation will begin with a much more aggressive, more comprehensive a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz with the possibility of ground incursion on the northern side of the straight in Iranian territory? Neil: Yes. Yes, and it’s our and and the first part has already started this week. So, so you’re already seeing in fact last week was the beginning of the air suppression campaign for this week. And as President Trump laid out the bombing schedule last night, the reason he will, if he if this keeps going forward, okay, just keep saying that if, he’s going to want to take out things like electric power and bridges is because he’s going to want to try to suppress as much of Iran’s military defenses as he can as he goes forward here. And the military is giving him the plans for doing that. One place where I differ with Pape is that he posits that Congress might get out of bed in six months and Do Something to check Trump then. To again invoke Stein’s Law, if something cannot continue, it will stop. The US and Israel can of course carry on with terrorism within Iran, such as assassinations and cyber attacks. But the level of weapons depletion and on current trajectories, shortly-arriving fuel shortages, seems very likely to put a choke chain on US aggression soon. From Larry Johnson in The US Faces a Strategic Crisis with Iran…The Rapid Depletion of US Battlefield Missiles:8 The tables below are based on the most recent publicly available analyses from CSIS, the Payne Institute, and major media outlets (as of mid-2026), and provide a current (overly optimistic in my opinon) estimate for US inventory levels of these key weapons systems. Please note that actual inventories are classified; these are informed estimates derived from DOD budget documents, procurement records, and reported expenditures during Operation Epic Fury (the US-Israeli war with Iran). Air Defense Missiles Anti-Radiation / SEAD Long-Range Strike (Ground & Sea-Launched) Missiles These are not just the numbers currently in the hands of US CENTCOM (i.e., the US military command in charge of the war against Iran), these are the total numbers available to all of the US military commands. If these missiles are allocated evenly to the other two critical commands — i.e., EUCOM (European Command) and PACOM (Pacific Command) — then you begin to understand the gravity of this deficit. Let’s take the case of the Tomahawk missile. Let’s assume there are 3,000 left (I believe that is a generous over estimate) and the remaining number are divided evenly among CENTCOM, EUCOM and PACOM… That means each command gets 1,000. Does anyone want to argue that in the event of a hot war with Russia or China that EUCOM and PACOM respectively would be able to sustain combat operations for more than four weeks? Hell, CENTCOM fired 850 of them during the first four weeks of EPIC FURY. Here’s another major problem: All eight missile systems rely on rare earth elements — there are no exceptions among modern US precision-guided weapons. The dependence is nearly universal because rare earth permanent magnets are irreplaceable for the high-performance actuators, guidance motors, and seeker gimbals that make these weapons accurate. And who controls the supply chain of these rare earth minerals? China!… The supply chain isn’t just about mining — it’s about processing, separation, and magnet manufacturing, which China controls: - Mining: China ~60% of global rare earth oxide production - Refining/Separation: China ~91% - Sintered NdFeB Magnet Manufacturing: China **~94%** Now to updates. From Aljazeera’s live feed: - A vessel is on fire in the Strait of Hormuz after being hit by a projectile, forcing the crew to abandon ship. They were later rescued by a tugboat. - One person has been killed and several others wounded after the US military attacked the Iranian city of Tabriz in northwestern Iran. The entries in the feed include ones describing how Mr. Market is taking cheer from the Iran Foreign Ministry admitting they are getting communiques from intermediaries and reviewing them as if they originated from the US. Recall that the negotiators have often developed ideas and tried to sell both sides on them. Bloomberg’s Javier Blas, who has been a consistent seller of lower oil prices, is refreshingly precise about Iran not saying either way as to whether the missives were from the US or just the negotiators operating on their own: Iran has received “some proposals” from unspecified mediators regarding the war with the US, Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Esmail Baghaei says in press conference, without elaborating. — Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) July 20, 2026 Contrast that with the Aljazeera account: Oil prices ease after Iran says US contacts continuing through mediators Oil prices have scaled back their gains after hitting their highest in a month after Iran said diplomatic exchanges with the US are ongoing via mediators despite renewed conflict in the Middle East. Grr. Another Aljazeera live feed entry: Iran ‘counting down the minutes’ for US ground invasion [Today’s Iran war post launched more or less complete. I will be off duty for a while. If there are any updates, they will come in the comment section later] Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei says the United States will face “consequences of any adventure” to seize Kharg Island in southern Iran. He added there are people in Iran’s leadership “counting down the minutes to welcome” US forces in any ground invasion. Kharg is the heart of Iran’s oil industry. It sits 55km (34 miles) off Iran’s coast in Bushehr province. President Trump has repeatedly threatened to seize the territory during the war. A raid on Kharg could fit Ritter’s raid scenario, with the US busting things up and then leaving.9 But experts have pointed out that Iran has at least four other export routes. Kharg is the most efficient but losing it while being repaired would be inconvenient as opposed to a fatal blow. From Bloomberg’s landing page: From US Bombs Iran for Ninth Day as Standoff Over Hormuz Deepens: The US conducted a ninth straight day of airstrikes on Iran, trying to force the Islamic Republic to stop shipping attacks and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The American military bombed military targets and communications networks in a three-hour operation ending around 5:30 a.m. Iranian time on Monday. Iran continued to attack US bases in the likes of Kuwait, Jordan, Bahrain and Iraq. The standoff shows no sign of easing, with Iran refusing to relent over Hormuz and insisting it has a right to manage traffic through the waterway. Energy prices have jumped on the worsening hostilities. Brent crude oil rose to above $90 a barrel for the first time in more than five weeks in early trading on Monday. US gasoline prices climbed back over the $4-a-gallon mark, potentially hurting President Donald Trump and his Republican party ahead of midterm elections in November… Hormuz Shipping Traffic Slumps as US-Iran Hostilities Worsen The tit-for-tat attacks are getting deadlier…. Shipping volumes have slumped and the number of tankers and other vessels going through Hormuz is roughly down to the same level from the height of the conflict in March and early April… US President Donald Trump warned Iran last week he’d escalate airstrikes and widen the scope of targets until it backed down… Kuwait continues to experience some of the worst attacks from Iran. Over the weekend, Kuwait’s main state energy company said an unspecified site sustained “significant material losses,” causing its evacuation and a number of injuries, while two power and desalination plants have been hit in recent days. And from Hormuz Traffic Near Standstill as US-Iran Hostilities Escalate: - Visible traffic through the Strait of Hormuz appeared at a near standstill Monday after Iran targeted vessels in the narrow waterway. - A Marshall Islands-flagged bulk carrier and a liquefied petroleum gas carrier appeared to approach the strait, with the bulk carrier turning off its transponder while approaching. - The targeting of vessels will likely raise fresh concerns over the safety of ships transiting Hormuz, which could deepen disruptions to energy flows from the Persian Gulf to global customers. Indirectly importance of US operations in Jordan, the lead story in the Wall Street Journal is Jordan Becomes New Flashpoint in U.S.-Iran War as Troop Deaths Rise. But it fails to set forth any of the juicy details that Janta Ka presents. This is the thin strategic gruel offered: For years, Jordan sought to play down its close military and intelligence cooperation with the U.S. The U.S. aircraft that carried out strikes on Islamic State from a base in Jordan during the American war with the militants didn’t advertise the country they were operating from. But Jordan’s role is now becoming too prominent to obscure. Jordan has become an attractive location for U.S. armed forces since it is among the most permissive in the Arab world when it comes to allowing the U.S. to operate from its bases. A bit more on Jordan: The view from Tehran. “The increased focus on Jordan may serve as part of Iran’s preparation and testing of operational concepts for more intense and precise strikes against Israel in later stages of the conflict. Qatar and Saudi Arabia—have at times sought to impose limits… — Policy Tensor (@policytensor) July 20, 2026 By contrast, the House of Saud published a remarkably revealing document (hat tip Eugene Linden), Iran Struck Prince Sultan and No One Was Required to Say So: Iranian ballistic missiles struck Prince Sultan Air Base in Al-Kharj on July 18, wounding twelve US service members — two critically — and hitting KC-135 Stratotankers on the flight line while a second rotation was still climbing out. Saudi Arabia’s Civil Defense Authority cleared the sirens six minutes later without naming the weapon, the origin, or the damage, and neither Riyadh nor Washington has issued an official statement since. The strike was the first direct Iranian attack on Saudi territory in approximately four months, a gap during which the IRGC struck Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, Qatar, and the UAE while conspicuously sparing the Kingdom. Its return to PSAB — confirmed by a US official to Axios, corroborated by satellite imagery, and detailed by Air & Space Forces Magazine — ended whatever territorial immunity Saudi Arabia believed it still possessed. But the more consequential development is not the strike itself. It is the silence that followed, and the institutional architecture that sustains it: a three-party managed ambiguity in which Iran, Saudi Arabia, and CENTCOM each benefit from leaving the damage question unanswered, because answering it would force a public reckoning with a PAC-3 reserve that is approaching a ceiling none of them can afford to name. The strike was confirmed by a US official cited by Axios as “the first time the Islamic Republic has directly attacked the kingdom in four months” — a description that the State Department, the Pentagon, and the Saudi Ministry of Defence have each declined to repeat on the record. Air & Space Forces Magazine, drawing on multiple US military sources, reported at least twelve wounded and multiple Stratotankers damaged on the tarmac. Open-source satellite imagery corroborated the impact site within the base perimeter. Iran’s state broadcaster supplied what no government would. The missiles were launched “moments after American refueling planes took off,” a detail that only makes sense if the IRGC had real-time ISR coverage of PSAB’s tanker rotation schedule. The aircraft hit were those that remained on the flight line after the airborne pair departed — the timing was deliberate, and the targeting message was not about maximising destruction but about demonstrating that PSAB’s daily operational patterns are watched, clocked, and within reach…. Riyadh cannot confirm the strike without confronting two questions it has spent the war avoiding. The first is defensive: if Iranian missiles hit PSAB and wounded US personnel, the Sakhir Declaration — the mutual defence framework Saudi Arabia negotiated with Washington — becomes the operative instrument, and invoking it requires publicly admitting what the Arab Center DC described as the core strategic dilemma: “the PAC-3 architecture is functionally exhausted.” The second is economic. Aramco’s August Arab Light OSP already dropped $11 month-on-month to $1.50 per barrel below Oman/Dubai, the largest such cut in over two decades and the lowest since June 2020. Confirming that Iranian ballistic missiles are landing on military installations 77 kilometres south of the capital forces a sovereign-risk reassessment that Riyadh’s fiscal position — a Q1 deficit of SAR 125.7 billion, with Aramco’s free cash flow at 0.85 times its quarterly dividend — is not structured to absorb…. Washington faces a different but parallel constraint. Confirming the strike means confirming that 2,300 US service members at PSAB are taking casualties at a base where 43 US warplanes have been grounded since Saudi Arabia’s Operation Project Freedom in May 2026. CENTCOM cannot describe a defensive engagement at PSAB without also describing the legal anomaly: the 1977 USMTM memorandum governing US presence is not a Status of Forces Agreement, and Project Freedom severed the operational relationship between American air power and Saudi host-nation authority. An official statement would invite the Congressional question that the Pentagon’s communications strategy is built to defer: why are American troops still at a base where their aircraft have been grounded by the host nation, absorbing Iranian fire under a legal framework that was designed for peacetime advisory missions? Please read this article in full. It contains remarkable operational detail. It is over my pay grade as to why it was published, but it seems to suggest considerable unhappiness at Riyadh. Due to the length of this post, we have skipped over the fact that Ansar Allah seems just about to threaten or actually close the Bab el-Mandeb strait: 🚨 BREAKING 🇾🇪 YEMEN’S HOUTHI FORCES WILL MAKE A “HUGE” ANNOUNCEMENT TODAY AT 8:30 AM ET. REPORTS EXPECT THEM TO ANNOUNCE A BLOCKADE OF THE BAB EL-MANDEB STRAIT. TOGETHER WITH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, THESE TWO CHOKEPOINTS HANDLE OVER 25% OF GLOBAL SEABORNE OIL TRADE. IF TRUE,… pic.twitter.com/yjavHpPKOi — Wimar.X (@DefiWimar) July 20, 2026 This does not look terribly negotiation-receptive. https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/wp-admin/post-new.php#qm-overview And some additional sightings from Twitter: Israelis have never felt less secure. 64% are unhappy with how the endless wars have been run. 73% are upset at how there has been no real investigation of October 7. 73% of the public also feel the government has not dealt well with the rise in crime. No one wins from these… https://t.co/4OjhLUD14O — Shaiel Ben-Ephraim (@academic_la) July 19, 2026 These remarks would seem to negate happy thinking about negotiations: ⚡️⭕️ Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei says Tehran is determined to exercise sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz through measures already taken, and states the US failed to fulfill its commitments under a memorandum of understanding, so Iran will not fulfill… — Middle East Observer (@ME_Observer_) July 20, 2026 The average price for a gallon of gas hit $4, the second time it has reached that benchmark since the war in Iran disrupted global oil supplies https://t.co/Cg8rE3XnJ7 pic.twitter.com/3UqHfwU4sc — CNN (@CNN) July 20, 2026 Done for today! See you tomorrow! ____ 1 What kind of admission of weakness is this? Part of the job description of a service member is that they may wind up dying for their country. Admittedly, the US is widely suspected of suffering a much higher body count and covering that up. But this show of extreme sensitivity to losses again shows the US has a glass jaw. 2 Nima also discusses at some length at the top of a new talk with Larry Johnson why they look misguided. He knows Bandar Abbas well, which is where the US has been hitting bridges so as to isolate it. Nima explains and even shows pictures that the bridges exist only to cope with seasonal floods for a few months a year. Those sluices are dry now, so Bandar Abbas is easily accessible by all sorts of routes. 3 🚨 BREAKING: Russia has evacuated 198 of its personnel from the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant in Iran. It is believed that the plant could be targeted again. pic.twitter.com/lPoQB05qgo — GBC (@GBC_Press) July 17, 2026 4/sup> A new trope in the US-backing commentary community is to depict the new Supreme Leader as a figurehead, which is easy to make stick given his lack of public appearances (I suspect that among other things, he is having facial reconstruction; that can take an extremely long time since procedures are done serially with healing time in between). I believe it was on a recent Dialogue Works talk where Professor Marandi debunked one popular claim, that he IRGC was operating on its own authority. Professor Marandi described the governing structure and said the military (both the regular forces and the Guards) needed approval of the Supreme Leader for its operations. Having said that, I have commented that Iran seems to have a Japanese-style decision-making structure, as in more bottoms-up than the West. That results in more time to make decisions but much more internal cohesion when they are reached, since those at lower levels would be able to voice concerns and make suggestions. Upon reflection, this would make sense given that Iran adopted its “mosaic” structure of extreme decentralization so as to allow it to function well even when the leadership was killed or incommunicado, as we saw at the onset of the current conflict. In the Japanese model, decisions are effectively made at the senior-middle level ranks, which does tend result in the board and CEO being ceremonial. But the top level can and does say no, or effectively does so by asking probing questions and sending the matter back down the chain for further study and perhaps some revision. I have been involved in decisions in Japan where the board and CEO were highly engaged, and these were ones that were of critical strategic importance. 5 DropSite has a longer recap of Araghchi’s remarks: ⭕️ Iran FM Araghchi: Wars End Either Through Total Victory or Negotiations… Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi: 🔹 A war must be ended precisely at the point when you hold the upper hand on the battlefield. Ending a war is possible either through total military victory or… pic.twitter.com/kHeYhShsXC — Drop Site (@DropSiteNews) July 20, 2026 IMHO his analysis is wrong-headed. As indicated above, a bit over half the modern wars do not end with a negotiated settlement. And it is a false dichotomy to say that to win, Iran must conquer the US and Israel. FFS, please explain Vietnam. Bad logistics and depleting weapons mean that ex nukes, the US cannot win against Iran. The question is how long it takes and how much damage is done not just to Iran but also the world economy. Keep in mind the intermediaries are still busy but motion is not progress: #Iran's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson has confirmed that Tehran has received "ideas and proposals" from mediators. He declined to provide any further details regarding the specifics of the mediation efforts. pic.twitter.com/8Pzs25eauc — Iran Nuances (@IranNuances) July 20, 2026 6 A memorable scene in the Daniel Ellsberg memoir Secrets is when Ellsberg, widely seen as the top US expert on Vietnam, briefed McNamara on a helicopter about how badly things were going. McNamara said, “Just as I suspected,” and then upon landing briefed the press on the great progress the US was making. 7 It has taken me too long to see why Pape often acts as if he is speaking to children or the stoopid. Making this his normal manner of presentation means that when he actually is having to speak to someone who is being stoopid, they won’t take offense. 8 However, to quibble with Johnson on another matter: he has been saying, as he does in the talk linked in Footnote 2 above, that the Iran attacks on a former US base in Syria, Al Tanf, were pointless because the base had been vacated for years. Vanessa Beeley, who has spent a lot of time on the ground in Syria and still has contacts there, begs to differ. She says the base was recently restored to service. From Why did Iran target the US Occupation base at Al Tanf, Syria? On Friday 17th July, Iran carried out an extensive attack on the US occupation base at Al Tanf in Syria. A drone and missile strike targeted a US Special Operations Command base in south-eastern Syria..the first strike on Syrian territory since the toppling of the former government in December 2024. In a statement, the IRGC said its aerospace forces conducted what it described as the 11th phase of “Operation Nasr-2,” targeting the strategically located base near Syria’s borders with Iraq and Jordan. The IRGC further claimed the attack destroyed a radar installation and several U.S. military helicopters, while alleging that many American personnel were killed. This strike occurred as the build up of both Turkish and HTS military forces increases inside Syria, along the border with Lebanon and in the coastal region to the north of Lebanon. I have been reporting on this here and here. Syrian sources provided more detail on the attack: Despite previous reports of an almost total evacuation of the Al Tanf base, located on the borders of Syria, Iraq and Jordan, almost 5 months ago – the intensity of the strikes suggested a shift in the site’s operational status. This was not an empty base, in fact, according to sources, the IRGC’s tracking systems and human intelligence in the region detected U.S. forces airdropping “Special Forces” units into the base approximately two weeks before the attack. Analysis would suggest that the purpose of these drops might be to prepare for a ground incursion across Iraqi territory (Sulaymaniyah Axis) in coordination with the local Kurdish separatist factions in Iraq. One military analyst told me: The attack reflects the operator’s ability to breach the secrecy surrounding U.S. movements and to convert radio and visual data into precise target coordinates. According to reports from inside Syria, the strikes inflicted direct damage on the base’s newly constructed infrastructure, neutralised the US elite combat force and derailed the Iraq-Axis operation against Iran. Of course, US media will not report on the planned operations or on the number of casualties – such a critical security breach and the significant scale of damage, as reported, will not be revealed. 9 Maybe mines?
Trump 'Planning for Wider War' in Iran—With Possible Ground Invasion—as US Bombing Escalates
US President Donald Trump is reportedly planning to expand his illegal, historically unpopular war in Iran as the prospects of a diplomatic resolution crumble, with the American military bombarding the Middle East nation for the ninth consecutive night on Sunday.An unnamed US official told The Washington Post on Sunday that the Trump administration is "planning for a wider war" in Iran, though the official warned that US forces likely lack the weapons capacity to "safely sustain operations." The official said they don't believe that "the White House is aware of that."The anonymous official's comments corroborated reporting last week indicating that Trump, who has not sought or received congressional authorization for the Iran war, is leaning toward expanding the assault, possibly with ground forces."Trump hosted a Situation Room meeting Tuesday evening to discuss the potential seizure of Kharg Island and other territory along the Strait of Hormuz using US troops, as well as the potential bombing of a tunnel complex at Pickaxe Mountain, a nuclear-linked site the US has yet to target," The Wall Street Journal reported. "Expanding airstrikes against more targets in Iran, including energy sites, also remains a possibility."Trump, who claimed in late March that the war was just "two or three weeks" away from being over, has repeatedly declined to rule out deploying American ground forces to Iran. Over the weekend, three US troops were killed in the region—two by an Iranian ballistic missile attack in Jordan, and another during a "controlled detonation of unexploded ordnance" in Iraq."We feel very badly," Trump said of the deaths, which brought the total number of US personnel killed during the Iran war to 17. Thousands of Iranians have been killed and millions displaced by the US-led assault.Pentagon leaders have not publicly briefed the American people or the press on the status of the war in over two months. Earlier this month, Trump declared that a ceasefire deal with Iran which sought to pave the way for a negotiated resolution to the war was "over."The US Central Command said late Sunday that American forces "targeted Iranian military command centers, air defense and coastal surveillance sites, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites, and communications networks" during its latest wave of airstrikes. The US military has also targeted bridges, power facilities, and other civilian infrastructure during recent attacks, prompting Iranian retaliatory strikes on American installations in the region."This dynamic creates the possibility of dangerous strategic miscalculation on all sides," the National Iranian American Council warned on Sunday. "Policymakers in Washington and regional capitals may underestimate Iran’s willingness to absorb sustained losses. Conversely, Iranian leaders may underestimate the willingness of the United States and its partners to sustain a prolonged military campaign if they conclude that Tehran is deliberately regionalizing the conflict."Hamidreza Azizi, a visiting fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, argued that recent US attacks along Iran's southern coastline "increasingly suggest a gradual but persistent US movement toward a possible ground operation in southern Iran.""If such an approach exists, it would go well beyond earlier ideas centered on seizing Kharg Island to cut off Iran’s oil exports or occupying islands overlooking the Strait [of Hormuz] to secure maritime traffic," Azizi wrote. "However, given the length of Iran’s southern coastline—roughly 1,800 kilometers—and the country’s considerable strategic depth, establishing comprehensive control would likely require hundreds of thousands of troops.""Current indicators suggest that we may be approaching the most significant escalation in the US-Iran confrontation since February," Azizi added.
Oil prices reach one-month high as Iran war escalates again
Oil prices reach one-month high as Iran war escalates again - Brent crude oil prices surged above $90 a barrel, reaching their highest in over a month, due to escalating US-Iran hostilities in the Middle East. - The conflict has intensified with US forces conducting strikes against Iran, and Iran retaliating against American allies Kuwait and Bahrain. - Both nations are escalating attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway through which approximately a fifth of the world's oil normally transits. - Incidents include a US naval blockade, Iran targeting tankers, and a third vessel reportedly on fire, leading to a sharp reduction in ship transits. - Analysts warn that the oil market may be underestimating the significant risk to global supply, given the potential for wider conflict and already tight inventories.
AMB. GORDON SONDLAND: Europe can’t condemn Iran, then complain when Trump finally acts to stop it
European leaders have spent years warning that Iran must never be permitted to acquire a nuclear weapon. They have condemned Tehran’s ballistic-missile program, its financing of terrorism, its use of proxy forces, its attacks on commercial shipping and its serial violations of international agreements. TRUMP'S 60-DAY IRAN DEAL REACHES HALFWAY MARK AS CEASEFIRE COLLAPSES INTO ESCALATING WAR Yet when President Trump concluded that the threat required military action, much of Europe’s response focused not on Iran’s conduct, but on whether European capitals had been sufficiently consulted. That complaint is difficult to take seriously. European governments were not ignorant of the intelligence picture. Their intelligence services have followed Iran’s nuclear program, missile development, terrorist networks and regional proxies for decades. They have reviewed the same broad threat assessments, watched the same enrichment trends and issued many of the same warnings. MACRON UNDER FIRE OVER IRAN, HEZBOLLAH POLICY AS TRUMP ADMIN HOSTS ISRAEL-LEBANON TALKS They may not have possessed every piece of operational intelligence available to the president, but they understood the direction of travel. They knew the danger was growing. They also knew that, eventually, someone would have to act. Europe’s preferred strategy was to play ostrich: acknowledge the threat, avoid the hard decision, wait for the U.S. to take the lead, and then feign surprise at the result. That arrangement is politically convenient. It allows European leaders to benefit from American power while distancing themselves from its use. Washington absorbs the military risk and political criticism. Europe preserves its diplomatic posture and complains about process. AMERICANS ARE NOT GIVING UP ON NATO, BUT THEY EXPECT EUROPE TO DO ITS SHARE But Europe cannot have it both ways. If Iran is a common threat to the democratic world, as European leaders have repeatedly said, then confronting it cannot remain principally an American responsibility. Europe cannot rely on U.S. military power, criticize Washington for acting, and then expect to enjoy the security benefits of the action without accepting any of the burdens. This is not merely President Trump’s war, nor is it solely America’s problem. It is a conflict involving the security of the Western world. Iran’s leaders do not regard the dispute as one between Tehran and Washington alone. They view the U.S., Europe and Israel as parts of the same hostile political and cultural bloc. Iranian intelligence operations have reached European soil. Iranian-backed groups have threatened European citizens and interests. Iranian missiles increasingly place European territory within range. European economies depend on maritime trade routes that Tehran has repeatedly threatened to disrupt. Europe cannot plausibly believe that by doing little more than it is doing today, Iran will somehow spare it. Passivity is not neutrality, and it does not purchase immunity. Tehran is unlikely to distinguish between an American adversary and a European government that quietly benefits from American protection. A regime prepared to use terrorism, hostage-taking, maritime coercion and proxy warfare will not reward European hesitation with safety. The most important contribution Europe can make now does not require firing a shot or spending another euro. It requires political unity. There should be no public daylight between the U.S. and its principal European allies over the strategic objectives. Tactical disagreements are inevitable and can be addressed privately. But public equivocation, procedural complaints and ritual calls for "restraint by all sides" are interpreted in Tehran as evidence that the Western alliance can be divided. That perception encourages Iran to wait out the pressure, manipulate European governments and bet that Atlantic unity will eventually collapse. The greatest strategic gift the West could give Tehran is the appearance of division. The greatest deterrent it can present is the opposite. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, French President Emmanuel Macron, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer should state clearly that the U.S. and Europe share the same objectives and will remain aligned until they are achieved. Those objectives must extend beyond the nuclear issue. Preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon is essential. But ending Iran’s reliance on proxy armies is equally important. For decades, Tehran has used Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, Iraqi militias and other armed groups to attack adversaries while maintaining a thin layer of deniability. Proxy warfare has allowed Iran to impose enormous costs on the region without accepting the consequences of conventional state aggression. A strategy that addresses nuclear weapons while permitting Iran’s proxy network to remain intact would solve only half the problem. Tehran could continue destabilizing neighboring countries, attacking shipping, threatening Israel, striking American forces and intimidating European governments without possessing a nuclear bomb. The proper Western objective should therefore be straightforward: no nuclear weapon and no Iranian-controlled proxy network operating with impunity. Europe’s first responsibility is to support that objective publicly and without qualification. Its second is to provide practical assistance. European governments should make allied bases fully available, without political caveats designed for domestic consumption. They should expand intelligence sharing, logistics support, missile-defense cooperation and maritime surveillance. European navies can provide minesweepers, escort vessels, patrol aircraft and other capabilities needed to protect international shipping. Freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz is not an American charity project. It is an economic necessity for Europe. European manufacturers, consumers and energy markets all depend on stable global commerce. If Iran can mine waterways, seize vessels or manipulate energy prices without a united response, Europeans will bear a substantial share of the cost. Countries that deny access to bases or obstruct allied operations should face political consequences. Spain, in particular, should not be permitted to benefit from the protection of the Atlantic alliance while frustrating efforts directed at a common threat. Alliance membership entails obligations, not merely benefits. This is the broader meaning of burden-sharing. President Trump has long argued that Europe must assume more responsibility for its defense. The debate has usually centered on military spending as a percentage of gross domestic product. But burden-sharing is not simply an accounting exercise. It also means standing with the U.S. when common security interests require difficult action. For generations, Americans have accepted extraordinary commitments to protect Europe. They have stationed troops on the continent, maintained nuclear deterrence, funded military infrastructure and repeatedly made clear that an attack on Europe would be treated as an attack on the U.S. Reciprocity demands more than gratitude. It demands solidarity when America confronts a threat that Europe itself has repeatedly identified. CLICK HERE FOR MORE FOX NEWS OPINION Critics will argue that stronger European support risks escalation. But the opposite is at least as likely. Weakness, hesitation and division invite miscalculation. They encourage authoritarian governments to believe that democracies lack the will to defend their stated interests. Deterrence works when an adversary believes its opponents possess both the capacity and the unity to act. For too long, Europe has attempted to separate diplomacy from power. It has treated negotiation as an alternative to leverage rather than as a means of employing it. The result has been years of agreements, sanctions relief, diplomatic outreach and warnings, while Iran continued enriching uranium, improving missiles and expanding its proxy apparatus. Diplomacy remains necessary. But diplomacy unsupported by credible force becomes little more than managed delay. No responsible leader should welcome war with Iran. The objective should not be permanent conflict or regime-change adventurism. It should be to destroy the capabilities that threaten the West and restore deterrence on terms Tehran understands. Europe has already concluded that Iran poses an unacceptable danger. Its leaders have said so for years. CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS APP The question is no longer whether Europe understands the threat. It is whether Europe is finally prepared to act as though it does.