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Ukraine peace, Europe's militarization, Iran war and nuclear proliferation: Lavrov's ASEAN briefing
Ukraine peace, Europe's militarization, Iran war and nuclear proliferation: Lavrov's ASEAN briefing
Ukraine peace, Europe's militarization, Iran war and nuclear proliferation: Lavrov's ASEAN briefing
Ukraine peace, Europe's militarization, Iran war and nuclear proliferation: Lavrov's ASEAN briefing
Ukraine peace, Europe's militarization, Iran war and nuclear proliferation: Lavrov's ASEAN briefing
Ukraine peace, Europe's militarization, Iran war and nuclear proliferation: Lavrov's ASEAN briefing
Ukraine peace, Europe's militarization, Iran war and nuclear proliferation: Lavrov's ASEAN briefing
Ukraine peace, Europe's militarization, Iran war and nuclear proliferation: Lavrov's ASEAN briefing
Ukraine peace, Europe's militarization, Iran war and nuclear proliferation: Lavrov's ASEAN briefing
Ukraine peace, Europe's militarization, Iran war and nuclear proliferation: Lavrov's ASEAN briefing
Ukraine peace, Europe's militarization, Iran war and nuclear proliferation: Lavrov's ASEAN briefing
Ukraine peace, Europe's militarization, Iran war and nuclear proliferation: Lavrov's ASEAN briefing
Ukraine peace, Europe's militarization, Iran war and nuclear proliferation: Lavrov's ASEAN briefing
Ukraine peace, Europe's militarization, Iran war and nuclear proliferation: Lavrov's ASEAN briefing
Ukraine peace, Europe's militarization, Iran war and nuclear proliferation: Lavrov's ASEAN briefing
Ukraine peace, Europe's militarization, Iran war and nuclear proliferation: Lavrov's ASEAN briefing
Ukraine peace, Europe's militarization, Iran war and nuclear proliferation: Lavrov's ASEAN briefing
Ukraine peace, Europe's militarization, Iran war and nuclear proliferation: Lavrov's ASEAN briefing
Ukraine peace, Europe's militarization, Iran war and nuclear proliferation: Lavrov's ASEAN briefing
Ukraine peace, Europe's militarization, Iran war and nuclear proliferation: Lavrov's ASEAN briefing
Ukraine peace, Europe's militarization, Iran war and nuclear proliferation: Lavrov's ASEAN briefing
Ukraine peace, Europe's militarization, Iran war and nuclear proliferation: Lavrov's ASEAN briefing
Ukraine peace, Europe's militarization, Iran war and nuclear proliferation: Lavrov's ASEAN briefing
Ukraine peace, Europe's militarization, Iran war and nuclear proliferation: Lavrov's ASEAN briefing
Trump warns of "massive attack" on Iran amid questions over endgame
A 13th consecutive night of U.S. bombing followed a warning by Donald Trump of a "massive attack" against Iran, adding to questions over what constitutes victory for the U.S. and how it can be achieved. Republican Representative Michael McCaul told Fox News the U.S. military "was winning this war against Iran," and with the conflict poised for a major escalation, it seems the metric for victory continues to shift. Goals of stopping Tehran from getting a nuclear weapon, degrading its ballistic missile arsenal, and ending its regional proxy threat now seem to be superseded by the immediate priority of fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz where one fifth of the world's energy products transits. "If Iran doesn't have exclusive control of the Strait of Hormuz and if the U.S. doesn't unfreeze the majority of Iran's frozen assets, I think this could be considered a win," Zev Faintuch, head of research and intelligence at security firm Global Guardian, told Newsweek. Freeing up around $24 billion worth of Iranian funds was said to be among the terms of the June 17 memorandum of understanding (MOU) which paused the Iran war, opened the Strait of Hormuz, and preceded 60 days of talks about Tehran's nuclear program. Faintuch said the latest strikes did not curb Iran's nuclear program as much as the 12-day war last June did but Iran's conventional military capabilities had been degraded, "so that's probably considered a victory." He believes the Trump administration will try to find some kind of off-ramp before September, around 60 days before the midterms. "We have another two to four weeks until there's going to be a pretty desperate diplomatic play." Latest US Strikes The U.S. president has said Iran was responsible for attacks by Tehran-backed Houthis on shipping in the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab Strait, which have threatened the other major chokepoint for shipping in the region. Trump told Axios Thursday, "I am considering a massive attack, bigger than ever before," without specifying further." The outlet reported that two other U.S. officials said no new orders have been given to the military. "I think what it means is a dramatically escalated air campaign," retired U.S. Vice Admiral Robert Murrett told Newsweek. "I don't see any evidence of large deployments of ground forces, or indicators that any kind of significant ground activity would take place." After Trump's comment, U.S. Central Command announced another night of strikes against Iranian military targets, with the aim of diminishing threats to commercial shipping from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). On Friday, separate strikes were reported, with one near Piranshahr in northwestern Iran. Another was on an IRGC naval base at Zibakenar on the Caspian Sea coast, with images showing smoke rising in the aftermath, independent outlet Iran International reported. Aurélien Colson, academic co-director of the ESSEC Business School Institute for Geopolitics & Business, told Newsweek the U.S. can further hurt Iran by bombing facilities, destroying air defenses, tightening sanctions, and raising the military and economic cost for Tehran. "But that is not the same as winning," he said, "there is no purely military solution to the Iranian nuclear question, which remains the key issue, in spite of the U.S. administration being focused on reopening the Hormuz Strait." "The U.S. can punish Iran, but it cannot bomb Iran into a stable nuclear settlement. If Washington defines victory as regime collapse or total surrender, it is setting itself up for failure." A U.S. strike at Iran’s Shalamcheh border crossing with Iraq was reported on Thursday by Iran’s Mehr News Agency. Iran analyst Hamidreza Azizi, from the think tank SWP Berlin posted on X this could signal a preparatory move for the deployment of special operations or ground forces or allow for the advance of armed insurgent groups. Pickaxe Mountain a Target U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright told ABC News that Trump's focus is "to prevent Iran from achieving nuclear weapons." It was this capability the U.S. president had in mind when he threatened on Tuesday to bomb the underground nuclear facility Pickaxe Mountain, 140 miles south of Tehran and just over a mile from the Natanz nuclear facility that was among Operation Midnight Hammer's targets last June. Iran has warned it would retaliate against any attack on its infrastructure or nuclear facilities with strikes against regional targets. There is speculation that this could include within Israel, where shelters have been opened across the country as a precautionary measure for potential escalation, Israeli media reported. "These developments suggest that the conflict may be entering a more dangerous phase, potentially comparable to the peak of the 40-Day War," Azizi said on X, referring to the conflict that started on February 28 with the initial U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran. "It remains unclear what the U.S. can do in this latest series of strikes that it has not done before," Vuk Vuksanović, associate at the London School of Economics think tank, LSE IDEAS, told Newsweek. "The only thing that the U.S. could do to try and change the outcome is too dangerous even to contemplate, which is a full-scale ground invasion of Iran." The number of U.S. service members killed during the war in Iran was lowered from 18 to 14 on Thursday and the prospect of more American casualties would be sensitive for Trump given his previous antipathy to the "forever wars" of his predecessors. Iran also retains the capacity to strike desalination and other critical infrastructure in the Gulf countries, which would trigger a humanitarian catastrophe in these countries, Vuksanović said. "The current situation is paradoxical—while a diplomatic resolution of the conflict is nowhere in sight, the price of further escalation is enormous and difficult to contemplate." Meanwhile, Murrett, deputy director of the Syracuse University Institute for Security Policy and Law, said that a victory for the U.S. at this stage would be to reopen the Strait of Hormuz at scale and initiate significant talks about Iran's nuclear program, ending backing for Tehran's proxies and no more attacks by Iran on U.S. Gulf allies. "The key issue relative to this is the level of pain tolerance that the Iranian leadership and the different segments the Iranian leadership have, and so far, it looks like it's pretty high." Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Frances Mao and James Debens
Trump warns of "massive attack" on Iran amid questions over endgame
Trump warns of "massive attack" on Iran amid questions over endgame
Nine Potential Commodity Wildcards As "Once-A-Decade" Shocks Become New Normal
Nine Potential Commodity Wildcards As "Once-A-Decade" Shocks Become New Normal
Nine Potential Commodity Wildcards As "Once-A-Decade" Shocks Become New Normal
Nine Potential Commodity Wildcards As "Once-A-Decade" Shocks Become New Normal A growing number of institutional desks sounded alarms over physical commodity markets this week as maritime chokepoint disruptions intensified across the Gulf. Goldman Sachs, RBC Capital Markets, JPMorgan, and others warned that a tightening physical market could keep Brent firmly in triple-digit territory and drive prices sharply higher if the disruptions persist. Joining the conversation was Citigroup Senior Commodities Strategist Eric Lee, who warned Thursday that commodity markets have entered an era of near-constant disruption, with geopolitical, climate, and technological shocks increasingly overwhelming traditional supply-and-demand analysis. Lee warned: Commodities markets are in an era where geopolitical, climate and technological shocks routinely overwhelm traditional supply-demand analysis. Rather than only what is most likely, investors need to consider what is plausible, and what markets are least prepared for. The frequency of major commodities market disruptions appears to be rising. Events once considered "once -a-decade" now seem to emerge every year, or even every six months. Since the early 2000s, markets have navigated the Global Financial Crisis, the Arab Spring, the US shale revolution, OPEC's strategic policy shifts; since 2020, wildcards include COVID-19, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, trade wars, gold-positive macro concerns, weather-driven agricultural disruptions, and repeated Middle East conflicts. Timeline showing notable wildcards and shocks impacting commodities, 2000-2026 List of notable wildcards and shocks impacting commodities: Lee outlined nine high-impact commodity-market wildcards for the second half of 2026 and beyond, warning that the scenarios are not base-case forecasts but risks with consequences too large for investors to ignore: US-Iran conflict goes from temporary shock to multi-year disruption of Gulf oil production capacity, driving crude oil to $150+, wholesale refined products to $200+, US retail gasoline to $6/gal sustained. Russia-Ukraine escalation drives renewed oil and gas export restrictions: this could be even more bullish for global gas than for oil. Critical minerals hoarding goes into overdrive: drives copper to $20k/t and more. Gold falls another 15–20% near-term before doubling. Hyper El Niño and other extreme weather: drives ag price spikes, e.g. cocoa back to >$10k/t. AI boom and bust: buffet electricity, natural gas, uranium, and power-infrastructure metals like copper and aluminium one way, and gold the other way. Trade war hits US farmers again: US-China trade war resumes, hitting US ag exports, which could push corn below $4.2/bu and soybeans below $10/bu. 2030 LNG glut worsens on Russian Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline to China: driving global LNG prices like JKM down to $5–6/MMBtu. Monroe Doctrine extreme: US blockades all Americas oil exports, driving global oil prices to well above $100/bbl, while US benchmarks might be discounted by over $30/bbl. A look at the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM), a widely tracked commodity-futures benchmark, shows the broader complex, spanning energy, agriculture, metals, and livestock, continuing to climb from its Covid-era lows. Professional subscribers can access deeper commodity analysis at our new Marketdesk.ai portal. Tyler Durden Fri, 07/24/2026 - 12:40
Trump says China and Russia do not help Iran with weapons
WASHINGTON, July 24. /TASS/. US President Donald Trump is confident that China and Russia do not provide military support to Iran. "Therefore, two major countries that people speak of often in terms of Iran are, in my opinion, not participating. If they did, it would be very bad for them – certainly not in their best interests," he wrote on Truth Social. According to him, Chinese President Xi Jinping assured him that he would not agree to the transfer or sale of weapons to the Islamic Republic of Iran "under any circumstances. And that statement included Chinese companies," Trump said. He said he trusts the Chinese leader's word. "Besides, l am doing him very big favors," Trump said. " Likewise, President Putin, despite the horrible war going on in Ukraine (The relationship remains, as it does with President Zelenskyy), told me that he would not sell weapons to Iran. He understands that I do not sell weapons to Ukraine, but to NATO countries. They pay full price, and how those weapons are distributed, I have no idea." On July 22, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that Moscow wants the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz to end and is not supplying weapons to Tehran. Lavrov said it makes him "awkward to hear" rumors about this.
Life without refrigerators: Gaza residents fight heat and food spoilage
Life without refrigerators: Gaza residents fight heat and food spoilage Gaza families endure scorching summers without refrigerators, struggling to preserve food, medicine and basic comforts amid prolonged electricity shortages and displacement. Gaza City — Inside the tent Malak al-Zaanin has lived in since being displaced from her home in Gaza, the mother of four holds a tray of rice her family received that afternoon from a nearby community kitchen. She has already shared the meal with her husband and children, but her next worry is how to keep the valued leftovers from spoiling in the sweltering heat. Before the war, her refrigerator kept food fresh for days, but due to a lack of electricity caused by Israel’s siege on Gaza, it now sits unused inside the tent. She placed the remaining rice on metal shelves inside the tent, knowing what will inevitably happen amid Gaza’s endemic food crisis. “The children will be hungry again soon and ask for food,” she says. “By then, it will probably have spoiled because we don’t have a refrigerator, and the tent feels like an oven.” Gaza electricity crisis UN agencies have previously warned that extreme heat, prolonged power cuts and the lack of refrigeration in Gaza are increasing risks of food spoilage and food-borne illnesses, especially among displaced families. Fuel supplies remain critically low, and the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) estimates that just 1 million litres (265,000 gallons) of diesel entered Gaza in early June 2026, falling far short of the amount required to keep life-saving operations running. Continued shortages are likely to further disrupt electricity, water systems and other essential services, but many families in Gaza are already feeling the impact of the energy crisis. Malak’s struggle is the same as countless mothers across Gaza, who now face the dual challenge of not only finding food, but in the absence of electricity and refrigeration, also preserving it. “We barely manage to secure food for our children,” she says. “Imagine watching it spoil in front of you while being unable to save it.” Besides the heat, stored food is also vulnerable to flies, insects and rodents that have become increasingly common in the crowded displacement camps with little sanitation. “I’ve turned [the fridge] into a table and storage shelves,” she says, lifting a cloth covering the appliance, showing it filled with aid boxes and supplies for the family’s small kiosk. The only other options, refrigeration services, are costly or simply unavailable. She remembers one time receiving trays of rice and meat, only to find no space to store the leftovers after her children had eaten. “We ate the meat and threw away the rice. What else could we do? That’s our life now.” When a cool bag of water is available, Malak sometimes buys one for two shekels ($0.35-$0.70), but often the family has nothing available but water from a storage tank heated by the summer sun. Cold water is a dream A short walk away, 43-year-old Manal Hamad shares the same modest dream: a glass of cold water. “I need to keep my medicine in a refrigerator,” she said. “Cold water is a dream for me. When I drink the hot water from the tank, it feels like my heart is boiling, and my blood pressure immediately drops.” Manal, a mother of three who lives with diabetes, high blood pressure and heart disease, needs life-saving medicine that requires constant refrigeration. She sometimes has to pay people with a refrigerator to keep her medicine cool or preserve leftover food, but even those temporary solutions frequently fall short. One time she had to pay 10 shekels ($3) to refrigerate meat, only to discover later that it had spoiled. She constantly has to move vegetables from one shaded corner of her scorching tent to another, trying to delay their spoilage. What hurts her most is watching her children endure the heat without being able to offer them cold fruit, juice or chilled water. Instead, she fills a bucket with water so they can cool themselves. “There’s nothing else I can do,” she said. A cupboard In Gaza City’s Zeitoun neighbourhood, 40-year-old Nidal Rafeeh has found another use for the refrigerator that has sat idle during Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza – it has become a cupboard for canned food and personal belongings. “Things that were once necessities have become things we pay extra for,” he says. “I pay for water, phone charging, and now cooling food or drinking water.” As Israel’s siege on Gaza leads to massive inflation due to a shortage of goods and energy, small expenses accumulate, forcing Nidal and his wife to cook only single meals to avoid leftovers spoiling. “We do everything we can to avoid wasting food, like thousands of families across Gaza trying to survive,” he said. Near a makeshift camp in central Gaza, 34-year-old Mohammed al-Zaanin, displaced from Beit Hanoon, turned a small freezer into his only source of income after losing his job as a driver. He now runs a wartime survival business, charging phones and selling chilled drinks and water – services that emerged as prolonged power cuts due to the Israeli embargo created new daily needs. Mohammed relies on a diesel generator to operate the freezer and charging station, but the costs are high. Running the freezer alone costs about 1,500 shekels a month ($488), while electricity bills reach 1,300–1,400 ($423-$456) shekels every 10 days, with power costing about 35 shekels ($11.39) per kilowatt. Despite the huge costs, which inevitably must fall on the customer, he has no shortage of people using his services. “People come every day, asking me to chill a bottle of water, cool their food … but I simply can’t meet everyone’s needs,” he said. He remembers one time a deaf man arrived carrying a single mango, using sign language, pleading with Mohammed to keep it cool in his refrigerator. “It broke my heart. We’ve reached the point where people bring just one mango to cool,” he said. “Nobody would have imagined coming to someone else just to charge a phone or chill a bottle of water. Today, these have become luxuries.”
Life without refrigerators: Gaza residents fight heat and food spoilage
Life without refrigerators: Gaza residents fight heat and food spoilage
Netanyahu, Zelensky to meet Trump at White House, attend senator’s funeral
Netanyahu, Zelensky to meet Trump at White House, attend senator’s funeral