ردیاب بحران ایران-خلیج فارس ۲۰۲۶
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strikeJun 19, 2026

Analysis: A confident Iran is pressing its advantage, but challenges loom

Summary

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — As Iranian media boast of the “magnificent defeat” of the United States, Tehran is pressing its advantage, racing to sell oil under the interim peace agreement signed this week and trying to halt Israeli attacks in Lebanon. But the Islamic Republic suffered its own major blows and faces challenges ahead. Its economy is in shambles after the war, the country was rocked by mass protests in January, and its supreme leader has yet to appear in public. It is entering nuclear talks with the U.S. after coming under attack during two previous rounds. The deal offers desperately needed sanctions relief, much of which will come only if Iran rolls back its nuclear program, including at a minimum diluting its stockpile of highly enriched uranium. That concession has angered Iranian hard-liners. The U.S. is meanwhile demanding it cease enrichment entirely, something Iran has staunchly refused for decades. Iran’s leaders are projecting confidence, having clung to power despite weeks of heavy U.S. and Israeli strikes. They also believe U.S. President Donald Trump is unlikely to carry out threats to resume the war because of Iran's demonstrated ability to close the Strait of Hormuz and damage the world economy. “It’s too much to say that Iran has emerged a victor, but it could have been much worse,” said Farzan Sabet, an Iran expert at the Geneva Graduate Institute think tank. “I think that the real victory for Iran was … survival.” The deal offers financial benefits Under the interim deal, the U.S. is to issue waivers to allow for the export of Iranian crude oil. At least three state-owned Iranian oil tankers have already set sail as the U.S. has lifted its blockade, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence. Iran has exported nearly 18 million barrels in the last five days, the firm TankerTrackers.com said Friday, putting the value at $1.44 billion. Dozens more tankers loaded with oil could soon depart from Kharg Island, Iran's main export terminal on the Persian Gulf, further pushing down world prices. Benchmark Brent crude, which traded over $110 a barrel last month, has fallen to around $80 since the deal was reached. The average price of a gallon of gasoline in the U.S. also has dropped to under $4, a closely watched metric ahead of midterm congressional elections. The sanctions had long forced Iran to export crude through a “shadow fleet,” selling mainly to China at below-market rates. Now it can pursue more customers and get a better price. Iran will need that cash more than ever as it grapples with the fallout from the war. Iran is facing a looming economic crisis Since authorities lifted a monthslong internet shutdown, many Iranians have posted photographs of their empty refrigerators. Meat and other staples have grown too expensive for some households. The Iranian rial, which traded at 32,000 to $1 at the time of the 2015 nuclear deal with world powers, now stands at over 1.5 million to the dollar. “The conflict is estimated to have cost at least one million Iranian jobs, with 20% of workforce losses tied to the state-imposed internet shutdown,” said Holly Dagres, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “Ordinary Iranians, already struggling under systemic mismanagement and corruption as well as U.S. sanctions, have felt those burdens compounded by hyperinflation that has rendered the Iranian rial effectively worthless.” The rial's collapse sparked the nationwide protests that swept across Iran in January, challenging the rule of then-Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iran’s security forces launched their bloodiest-ever suppression, killing thousands of people. The 86-year-old Khamenei and other top leaders were killed in Israel’s opening barrage of the war on Feb. 28. Funeral ceremonies are planned for July 4-9, coinciding with the six-month anniversary of the protest crackdown. The government has sponsored nonstop rallies since the war began, in a show of force. Moderate voices in Iran are pushing for the country to seize the potential economic benefits from negotiations. Along with a complete lifting of all sanctions, the accord promises a $300 billion investment fund for Iran if it reaches a final deal with the U.S. — though it remains unclear where that money would come from. The question is how far Iran's new Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, the late leader's son, along with establishment hard-liners, are willing to go. In a statement on state media, he endorsed the interim deal, saying talks “will not mean accepting the enemy’s opinion” but also saying he had a “different viewpoint,” without elaborating. The deal could unravel over Lebanon and nuclear issues The conflict in Lebanon has already put the deal at risk. Talks planned for Friday in Switzerland were postponed as fighting intensified between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah militants. Israel says it will continue to occupy large areas of southern Lebanon and fight Hezbollah until it no longer poses a threat. Hezbollah has refused to halt its attacks without an Israeli withdrawal, though the two sides agreed to halt hostilities Friday. The interim deal between Iran and the U.S. — which neither Israel nor Hezbollah has signed — calls for both sides to cease military operations and for Lebanon's territorial integrity and sovereignty to be upheld. “The end of the war in Lebanon is an inseparable part of (the) complete end of the war,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tuesday. “And the end of the war also includes the end of the occupation.” That leaves very little wiggle room for the Americans, who postponed Vice President JD Vance’s trip to Switzerland. Then there’s the actual negotiations. Iran appears to have gotten two main issues long pushed by the U.S. and Israel off the table: its missile program and its support for Hezbollah and other militant groups. On the central nuclear issue, it agreed to “downblend” its highly enriched uranium, which resolves one top U.S. concern. But Raja News, a media outlet aligned with ultra hard-line factions, criticized that agreement, saying Iran had “given up its most important levers.” That shows the pressure not to back down on other issues, like the broader enrichment program. “I’m not very optimistic about the kind of second round of discussions that are going to focus on the nuclear issue,” Sabet said. “It’s not actually clear to me yet that those will go anywhere, at least this year.” ___ Associated Press writer Jamey Keaten in Geneva contributed to this report. ___ EDITOR’S NOTE — Jon Gambrell, news director for the Gulf and Iran for The Associated Press, has reported from each of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, Iran and other locations across the Mideast and the wider world since joining AP in 2006.

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  • JON GAMBRELL, Associated PressBy JON GAMBRELL, Associated Press

    DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — As Iranian media boast of the “magnificent defeat” of the United States, Tehran is pressing its advantage, racing to sell oil under the interim peace agreement signed this week and trying to halt Israeli attacks in Lebanon. But the I

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PARIS: The head of the International Energy Agency said on Tuesday (Jul 21) that renewed fighting in the Mideast increases concerns over energy supplies but that the market still has cushions to absorb the impact. "The escalation in hostilities affecting the Strait of Hormuz and energy infrastructure in the region increases security of supply concerns and uncertainty over the market outlook," IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said in a statement.

"For the moment, crude oil markets continue to benefit from several cushioning factors," he added, pointing to increased exports from several countries and Saudi and United Arab Emirates oil reaching markets by alternative routes. However, Saudi Arabia's main alternative route of using a pipeline to load tankers in the Red Sea port of Yanbu is under threat as Iran's Yemeni allies, the Houthis, declared they would blockade Saudi Arabia's ports.

Oil markets have for months feared that the Houthis would return to attacking shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden - as they did during the Gaza war - cutting off yet more crude from global markets. The initial market reaction to the announcement by the Houthis was restrained, however, as Iran indicated that mediation efforts were still underway, calming investor jitters.

"Threats to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which has become increasingly important as a route to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, exacerbate these concerns further," said Birol, referring to the narrow passage between the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. The IEA, in addition to advising its industrialised nation members, also helps them coordinate the release of their strategic oil reserves in reaction to market disruptions.

Birol noted that ongoing government releases from these reserves have provided considerable relief to markets, and that nations continue to hold ample reserves. However, he warned "there is no room for complacency on oil security" and pointed to a drawdown of available commercial inventories, with low refining activity contributing to a tighter supplies of refined oil products like petrol and diesel than for crude oil.

Birol noted that additional supplies of liquefied natural gas from the United States and Canada have offset about 70 per cent of lost supply via the Strait of Hormuz. However, further delays in resuming Gulf exports "will be felt by all LNG importers, including Europe as it looks to refill its gas storage for next winter", he warned.

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DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Iran attacked a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz early Tuesday, forcing its crew to abandon the ship, while the United States conducted yet another round of airstrikes targeting the Islamic Republic as they struggle over control of the key waterway.

The 10 consecutive nights of U.S. airstrikes haven’t compelled Tehran to loosen its grip on the strait, through which about a fifth of all crude oil and natural gas traded once passed in peacetime. Even as the U.S. and Iran inch closer to all-out war again, Iran’s interior minister traveled to Pakistan, a key mediator in the conflict, for talks.

However, it remains unclear just what new deal could be reached to end the fighting. The interim deal signed last month that was meant to end the fighting has crumbled. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has largely stalled. And as fighting intensifies, both sides have targeted civilian infrastructure relied on by millions of people.

“Iran and groups supportive of Iran may target other U.S. interests overseas or at locations associated with the United States and Americans throughout the world,” the U.S. State Department said in a new warning to Americans. The escalation has pushed oil prices higher in recent weeks.

Benchmark Brent crude traded Tuesday above $88 a barrel and regular gasoline in the U.S. climbed to an average of $4 a gallon, keeping pressure on Americans’ wallets ahead of midterm elections this fall. Meanwhile, the U.S. military identified two soldiers who were killed in Jordan in attacks that left a third person missing.

Separately, the military confirmed another death in Iraq on Saturday during the “controlled detonation” of a downed Iranian drone. President Donald Trump took to social media on Monday to warn that “Every time Iran kills an American Soldier they will pay for that killing many times over!

” Trump was planning to attend a ceremony on Tuesday evening at Dover Air Force Base, where at least one service member’s remains were due to arrive. US strikes come as ships attacked The U.S. military’s Central Command said Tuesday it targeted “Iranian military command centers, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites and air defense systems.

” It released more footage of bombings that targeted sites in Iran. “American forces remain postured and prepared to hold Iran accountable for unwarranted aggression toward civilian mariners seeking to freely and openly transit the strait,” the command said.

Iranian state media reported that explosions were heard in Fars, Hormozgan, Ilam, Kerman and Sistan and Baluchistan provinces. However, traffic through the strait has slowed to a crawl during the latest violence. Lloyd's List Intelligence said only three ships transited the strait on Sunday.

The British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center said a tanker came under attack early Tuesday in the strait off Oman, forcing the crew to abandon the vessel. Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard claimed the attack, as well as two other attacks on ships Monday in the waterway.

The route around Oman has been the one the U.S. military has encouraged ships to travel to avoid Iran’s control. The UKMTO separately reported Tuesday that another previously unknown attack on a ship took place early the previous day. Tehran also hit U.

S.-allied countries throughout the Middle East. Jordan military's said Tuesday that Iran targeted it with five drones and three missiles, all of which were shot down. Bahrain sounded its missile alert sirens Tuesday afternoon as another Iranian barrage targeted the island kingdom, which is home to the U.

S. Navy's 5th Fleet. Nearly 100 US injuries since early July The Pentagon’s chief spokesperson said nearly 100 U.S. service members have been injured since the U.S. restarted strikes on July 7, and 96% of them have returned to duty.

“The vast majority of injuries experienced were minor concussions,” Sean Parnell posted Monday on X in response to a New York Times report that the Pentagon has withheld information about troop injuries from Iranian strikes. He denied that the Pentagon was hiding data about injuries.

However, the Defense Casualty Analysis System, the military’s clearinghouse for reporting deaths and injuries in conflict, has not been updated as of Monday night with the latest attacks. Yemen rebels threaten attacks on other Mideast waterway Yemen’s Houthi rebels announced a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia on Monday.

The Houthis, who are backed by Iran, said they would block shipping between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden by targeting the Bab el-Mandeb, a maritime chokepoint like the Strait of Hormuz, in response to an attack on Sanaa International Airport last week that they blamed on Saudi Arabia.

With the Strait of Hormuz blocked, Saudi Arabia has been relying on a pipeline to the Red Sea to get millions of barrels of oil out to market. The Houthis earlier demonstrated their ability to disrupt shipping there when they targeted ships for months over the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, with over 100 vessels attacked.

Saudi Arabia’s military said it would keep the waterway open. “All Houthi threats against transiting vessels will be dealt with swiftly and firmly, as such threats are a blatant violation of international law and fall under acts of maritime piracy,” said Maj.

Gen, Turki al-Malki, a Saudi military spokesman. A glimmer of hope for diplomacy Pakistan has intensified diplomatic efforts in recent days to resuscitate the interim deal. Iranian Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni arrived in Islamabad on Monday for two days of talks with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and others.

On Sunday, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters that the U.S. is still open to negotiating with Iran but that “it has to be real.” “If the door opens to diplomacy — if the guys that want to do something productive for Iran win and take control of that system, or take control of the negotiations — that’ll be a very positive development,” Rubio said.

“That’s not where we are tonight, unfortunately.” Iranian authorities on Sunday said at least 50 people have been killed and 517 wounded in the latest rounds of U.S. strikes. Since the war began on Feb. 28, 17 U.S. service members have been killed.