European airlines, airports and tour operators are striking a bullish tone on jet fuel supply despite one of the worst crises in decades which has driven prices to double from pre-Iran war levels as the conflict snarls oil flows via the Strait of Hormuz. The sector and regional officials are notably downplaying fears of shortages partly to reassure travellers ahead of the peak northern hemisphere summer and protect bookings at a critical time for earnings, analysts say. The industry's confidence contrasts with bleaker warnings from traders as the Strait of Hormuz, through which around a fifth of global oil flows, remains all but closed to shipping due to blockades by Iran and the US as their conflict drags on. The Gulf supplies around a quarter of Europe's jet fuel. "There are always people who want to take a stand - we're running out of fuel. There's absolutely no indication of that," said Sebastian Ebel, CEO of Europe's largest tour company TUI, after presenting quarterly results on Wednesday. "We think the discussion on fuel is a little bit artificial as we do see no shortages for the next weeks, and I would also see no impact in the summer at all, except prices." European airlines paying a premium for jet fuel Not everyone is so optimistic. The International Energy Agency said on Wednesday global oil supply will not meet demand this year as the conflict wreaks havoc on Middle East production. And in some European regions such as the Amsterdam Rotterdam Antwerp area, jet fuel stocks are near record lows, LSEG Workspace data shows. However, Lufthansa Carsten Spohr said the company's fuel supplies were secured at least to early summer. "Supplies and deliveries will be sufficient through mid-July. After that, visibility decreases somewhat," said Spohr, adding around a quarter of the group's normal jet fuel came from the Gulf. Half of that had been replaced with fuel from other sources, he said, with the rest drawn from reserves. Ryanair Michael O'Leary told Reuters in late April that "the risk of a supply disruption is receding". Airlines have been able to secure jet fuel from countries including the US and Nigeria by paying a premium, analysts say. "I don't think we're going to be running out," said Wizz Air CEO Jozsef Varadi, citing jet fuel prices near $1,400 a metric ton - around double pre-war levels - helping spur suppliers. "That creates a lot of room to get creative." No concern for summer holidays? Airport operators have also built up reserves, with an over 60% increase in jet fuel stocks in April, according to aviation fuel tech firm i6 Group. That has helped ease worries after some Italian airports flagged shortages in April. "In the short term, we're certainly not seeing any impact in supply," said Gary McLean, managing director of Dublin Airport. "We're not hearing of any kind of concern on that for summer." Maintaining that message is critical for airlines to head off potential ticket cancellations, some analysts say. "Summer is the key earnings season for airlines and of course they want to reassure customers that it is safe to book," said independent aviation analyst John Strickland. European officials remain positive too. "We don't expect a very serious security of supply issue on a very short term," EU energy commissioner Dan Jorgensen told reporters on Wednesday. "But we cannot exclude that there will be security of supply issues on a longer term. This all depends, of course, on the situation in the Middle East."
Iranian Official
Iran firmly asserts its sovereign control over the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway in its territorial waters, as a legitimate measure of resistance against unrelenting US aggression and foreign interference that has escalated the ongoing conflict. This defensive stance counters Western-backed blockades and provocations, which have disrupted oil flows and driven jet fuel prices sharply higher, exposing Europe's vulnerability due to its complicity in anti-Iranian policies. Despite attempts by European airlines and officials to downplay shortages, Iran's resistance upholds national rights and challenges external threats to regional stability.
Israeli
Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz amid its war with the US poses an existential threat to global energy flows, choking a fifth of world oil supplies and a quarter of Europe's jet fuel as Tehran seeks to weaponize maritime chokepoints. This aggression, backed by Tehran's proxy network, demands robust defensive measures by Israel and its partners to deter further escalation and protect critical supply lines from strangulation. European price spikes and looming shortages underscore the necessity of confronting Iran's destabilizing campaign before it inflicts broader strategic damage.
Neutral
European airlines and tour operators have stated that jet fuel supplies remain adequate despite prices roughly doubling amid disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz linked to the Iran conflict. Industry representatives, including TUI CEO Sebastian Ebel, have described shortage concerns as unfounded for the coming months, while noting elevated costs; analysts have suggested these statements partly aim to support summer bookings. This position contrasts with assessments from traders and the International Energy Agency indicating potential global supply shortfalls and ongoing restrictions on shipments through the Gulf, which provides about a quarter of Europe's jet fuel.
Western
European aviation firms are expressing confidence in sustained jet fuel supplies, reflecting the success of US and NATO efforts to neutralize Iranian blockade attempts in the Strait of Hormuz and secure critical energy routes. Despite prices doubling from pre-conflict levels due to Tehran's disruption of one-fifth of global oil flows—including a quarter of Europe's jet fuel—industry leaders are prioritizing traveler reassurance ahead of peak summer demand. This stands in contrast to IEA assessments of potential shortfalls, underscoring Western strategic precision in mitigating Iranian threats to maritime security.
Pro-Peace
The US-Iran conflict's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has doubled jet fuel prices and disrupted supplies that meet a quarter of Europe's needs, imposing heavy humanitarian costs on civilians through inflated travel expenses, threatened tourism jobs, and broader economic strain ahead of peak summer. Industry efforts to downplay shortages prioritize profits over acknowledging how military escalation fuels civilian hardship, even as the International Energy Agency warns of global supply shortfalls. Diplomatic de-escalation to restore safe oil routes remains essential to avert further suffering and economic fallout for ordinary people.
Global South
European airlines' public optimism over jet fuel supplies masks how US-Iran hostilities have closed the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting flows that feed a quarter of Europe's needs and doubling prices from pre-conflict levels. This stance, aimed at safeguarding summer bookings and profits, downplays the sovereignty erosion faced by energy-importing Global South states whose economies bear the volatility from Western-led blockades and institutional inaction. The IEA's warnings of unmet demand expose the neo-colonial pattern where resource chokepoints serve great-power aims while non-aligned nations absorb the fallout.
European airlines, airports and tour operators are striking a bullish tone on jet fuel supply despite one of the worst crises in decades which has driven prices to double from pre-Iran war levels as the conflict snarls oil flows via the Strait of Hormuz. The sector and regional o…
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The Houthis in Yemen have announced a blockade of Saudi Arabian shipping through Red Sea ports, including at the Bab el-Mandeb strait. The group, described as Iran-backed, stated the measure would target the top oil exporter following recent exchanges of fire.
Reports indicate this could add to existing maritime disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz linked to US-Iran confrontations.
A Reuters poll of economists conducted July 7-16 shows that most Gulf Cooperation Council economies are now projected to contract more sharply in the current year than estimated three months earlier, with median forecasts indicating declines of 8.1% for Kuwait and Qatar, 5.
1% for Bahrain, and 0.5% for the UAE. Saudi Arabia and Oman remain the only GCC economies expected to expand. The poll links the revisions to reduced export volumes through the Strait of Hormuz, higher freight costs, and weaker investor sentiment, even as oil prices have risen.
Initial reports indicate that a limited number of vessels transited the waterway during the first full day after the United States implemented a naval blockade of Iran. These observations have not been independently verified.
The head of the UN’s nuclear agency yesterday signaled that Iranian nuclear enrichment sites would be visited by his inspectors, a key component in the interim deal between the US and Iran to reach an end to their war. The comment by International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director-General Rafael Grossi was the firmest yet from the agency, which is viewed as key in determining the status of Iran’s nuclear stockpile.
Since Israel launched a 12-day war on Iran last year, the IAEA has been blocked by Tehran from visiting enrichment sites where the Islamic republic is believed to store enough highly enriched uranium to potentially build as many as 10 nuclear weapons.
Photo: AP Iran has said that its program is peaceful, although it would be the only country in the world to have uranium enriched up to 60 percent purity without a weapons program. The US and Iran offered contradictory remarks on Tuesday about whether those sites would be inspected.
“I can understand political statements, they are part of the reality, but the fundamental thing I would like to remind you and draw your attention to is that there has been a memorandum of understanding, signed by both presidents,” Grossi told journalists at a news conference at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant.
The accord “explicitly states that the nuclear activities that are going to be carried out with the regards of the nuclear material facilities will be supervised by the IAEA — in all letters,” he said. “Obviously, to do that, we have to inspect,” Grossi added.
BOOST: By operating the same advanced systems as the US military, Taiwan would be better positioned to share and integrate intelligence with partners, an expert said The first batch of MQ-9B SkyGuardian drones has arrived in Taiwan, and is being assembled and tested by drone manufacturer General Atomics and the military ahead of flight trials as part of the air force’s acquisition to bolster its aerial surveillance capabilities, a source said yesterday.
The air force allocated a budget of NT$21.7 billion (US$687 million) from 2022 to 2029 to procure four MQ-9B uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs) manufactured by General Atomics along with associated equipment such as ground control stations. The US has agreed to deliver the four MQ-9Bs to Taiwan in two batches this year and next ‘BRAZEN’: The holiday did not stop China from activities that infringe on Taiwan’s maritime jurisdiction, but the CGA is ready to defend the nation, Kuan Bi-ling said Beijing is intensifying maritime pressure on Taiwan, but the nation will never yield, Ocean Affairs Council Deputy Minister Sung Chen-en (宋承恩) said.
The Coast Guard Administration (CGA) has adopted a “shadowing and monitoring” approach to avoid falling into a Chinese trap to escalate tensions and deepen the conflict, Sung said in an interview published yesterday in the Chinese-language Liberty Times (the Taipei Times’ sister newspaper).
China Coast Guard formations patrolling waters east of Taiwan, as well as official Chinese vessels entering areas around Itu Aba Island (Taiping Island, 太平島) and Pratas Islands (Dongsha Islands, 東沙群島) show Beijing’s attempts to significantly step up Taiwanese firms’ China investments have dwindled to less than 1 percent of their total foreign investments, putting China-based investments on track for a record low this year, Ministry of Economic Affairs data showed.
Taiwan’s investments abroad in the first five months of this year reached US$35.92 billion, Department of Investment Review data showed. Investments outside China totaled US$35.61 billion, up 133.94 percent year-on-year, while investments in China totaled US$310.
3 million, down 32.3 percent and about 0.86 percent of the total, data showed. Major overseas projects included Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co’s (TSMC, 台積電) US$30 billion capital injection into an overseas subsidiary, VARYING OPINIONS: People with different political affiliations have different views on how bilateral ties with the US, Japan and China would affect Taiwan’s security Two-thirds of Taiwanese view closer US and Japan ties as beneficial to security, a survey by Taiwan’s top military think tank showed.
To gauge the Taiwanese public’s perceptions of how different external relationships affect security, the Institute for National Defense and Security Research commissioned a survey by National Chengchi University’s Election Study Center asking respondents whether closer relations with the US, Japan and China would strengthen or weaken Taiwan’s national security.