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ردیاب بحران ایران-خلیج فارس ۲۰۲۶
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strikeMar 31, 2026

Chatter and fear about US military draft emerge as Trump’s Iran war drags on

Summary

The United States is almost certainly not going to have a military draft to fight Iran. That hasn’t stopped the chatter, and anxiety, across the country. In recent weeks, Donald Trump has ordered a number of marines and army paratroopers to head to the Middle East, gesturing toward a possible ground war to reopen the strait of Hormuz or secure nuclear weapons material. The provocative military activity has led to speculative conversation about what it would take to invade a country twice the population and three times the territory of Iraq. The White House has done little to end the debate. On 8 March, White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt chose – seemingly offhandedly – to respond to conservative journalist Maria Bartiromo’s question about the possibility of a military draft in vague terms. “The president, as commander in chief, wants to continue to assess the success of this military operation. It’s not part of the current plan right now, but the president, again, wisely keeps his options on table,” Leavitt said on Fox News. “There’s no greater priority or responsibility to this president than, of course, protecting the American people and protecting our troops.” Because her answer was not conclusive, commentary about a draft snowballed from there. News organizations like Task and Purpose, Yahoo and USA Today ran stories about how a draft would work. Meanwhile, an influence operation by Iranian shill accounts began amplifying commentary critical of the war almost immediately after the first US strikes on Iran. Researchers at Clemson University in South Carolina tracked the shift in the network of fake accounts. Social media took note of a change to the Selective Service program instituted in the National Defense Authorization Act that Trump signed in December, which automates registration for Selective Service – a program through which the government maintains a list of those eligible in case a draft were reinstated. Clickbait accounts began headlining posts saying that young men had been “automatically drafted” into service, but the change was simply administrative. Americans also noticed that the US army revised its recruiting regulations on 20 March, raising the maximum enlistment age to 42 from 35 and scrapping some prior restrictions for those convicted of marijuana possession. The changes suggested to some that the military has a recruiting problem and that it changed the standards to address that issue. But the army met its 2025 recruiting goal of 61,000 new soldiers four months early. “I mean, it’s a free country, they can talk about it all they want,” said Lawrence Romo, a former director of the Selective Service System in the Obama administration. “But I don’t think it’s serious unless there’s a long-term issue with not being able to recruit for the volunteer force in the long term, or we have a war where we have no choice, right?” Shortly after the US launched attacks on Iran, South Park writer Toby Morton launched DraftBarronTrump.com, satirizing the president’s willingness to send others into combat while his own family has assiduously avoided military service, including himself, obtaining draft deferments for bone spurs. It noted the president’s assertion that his son was “too tall” to enlist. By 2 March, the hashtag #SendBarron was trending on X and TikTok. And as draft talk populated social media, Politico asked California’s governor, Gavin Newsom, about it. “I think we have to look at ways we can frame a responsibility to serve for a year, six months minimum – year, 18 months,” Newsom, a Democrat, said in a video interview published 24 March. “This notion of shared experiences – I don’t know how else you get this country back together.” Newsom never served in the military. Neither did actor and comedian Rob Schneider, whose post on X calling for every American to “serve two years of military service” at 18, with a choice to “serve part of that time overseas or in a country in a volunteer capacity” earlier this week has drawn outsized attention. But there is political liability for Trump in even the conversation around a draft. During the 2024 campaign, Trump sharply rejected the idea of a draft. “The Fake News Washington Post came up with the ridiculous idea that Donald J. Trump will call for Mandatory Military Service,” Trump wrote on Truth Social in a 11 June 2024 post questioning comments made to the Washington Post by Christopher Miller, who led the Department of Defense after Mike Esper’s departure after the 2020 election. “The Story is completely untrue. In fact, I never even thought of that idea.”

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The White House is now apparently using Russian tactics to convince the American public that the war in Iran is not, in fact, a war. When asked by reporters at the White House on Thursday whether the most intense sustained air campaign by American forces since the invasion of Iraq would be over by the midterms, Vice President JD Vance replied: “I wouldn’t call it a war.

” Vladimir Putin said much the same thing when he invaded Ukraine. Russia was not fighting a war either, the Kremlin insisted; it was merely conducting a “special military operation.” If that comparison strikes you as shocking, consider the contours of the two conflicts.

A vastly more powerful military launched a punishing offensive against a smaller, less well-equipped adversary, inflicted enormous damage without achieving a decisive resolution, and then found itself drawn into a longer, grinding conflict with no clear way out.

The motivations behind the wars may be different, and they’re playing out in different theaters, but the pattern is eerily similar. Now, so too is the attempt by those in power to control how the public understands, and even what it is allowed to call, the obvious war unfolding in front of them.

If This Isn’t a War, What Is? Let us take a moment to assess what exactly has happened since February 28, when the U.S. launched Operation Epic Fury. The opening U.S.-Israeli attack killed Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, along with the commander of the Revolutionary Guard, the defense minister and various other senior officials.

According to the U.S. military’s own accounting, the first 38 days of major combat operations involved more than 10,200 sorties and 13,500 strikes. U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) says those attacks damaged or destroyed more than 85 percent of Iran’s ballistic missile, drone and naval defense industrial base, while knocking out 82 percent of its air-defense missile systems.

The U.S. sent carrier strike groups and warships into the region, later imposing a military blockade on Iranian ports. Meanwhile, American and allied air defenses intercepted more than 6,000 Iranian attack drones and 1,500 ballistic missiles fired at U.

S. forces, Israel and American partners across the Middle East. More than 50,000 U.S. service members remain deployed across the region. The fighting has killed 18 U.S. service members and at least 8,000 people across Iran, Lebanon, Israel and the Gulf states.

More than 750 U.S. service members have been wounded. Last month, during a lull in the fighting, the U.S. Treasury unveiled a sanctions package likened to an “economic D-day” that is designed to make Iran an “economic outcast” and cut the adversary off from all available forms of economic support.

In the announcement, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent openly declared that Iran had been “at war against America” for 47 years. This week, the shooting resumed; the U.S. hit targets in and around the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran blasted missiles at targets in Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan and Iraq.

All this from an administration that almost exactly a year ago launched a rapid rebrand of the Defense Department into the “Department of War”. No boots on the ground, though, so it’s not a war, right? Tell It Kind of Like It Is Even the very best snake-oil salesman would have a hard time convincing people that the war in Iran isn’t a war.

So why is JD Vance even trying? Well, if there’s one thing politicians understand better than anyone, it’s the importance of language and rhetoric. Words have immense power; a well-written speech can unite millions of people, and a catchy slogan like Make America Great Again can come to represent an entire political philosophy.

But war is a pesky word. For one, it implies there will eventually be a winner and a loser. It also brings with it certain expectations—and some very difficult questions. What is the objective? How many people will die? When will it end? And, perhaps most dangerously of all: was it worth it?

Those are not questions the White House wants Americans to be asking. Trump built a substantial part of his political identity around ending, rather than beginning, America’s “endless wars.” When Washington and Tehran signed a memorandum of understanding in June, the White House presented it as proof that Trump’s America First approach could deliver peace without another prolonged Middle Eastern conflict.

Then the hostilities started again. Earlier this week, Trump shared a Truth Social graphic declaring that “Hormuz Oil Volumes are BACK!”, saying 18 million barrels a day were once again leaving the Strait, compared with 20 million before the war. No independent commodity tracking company or energy analyst appeared to verify Trump’s claims.

But most Americans won’t be checking tanker-tracking dashboards. What they’ll care about is the cold, hard fact that diesel hit a new record price this morning, soaring to an average of $5.85 a gallon for the first time ever. Gasoline is $4.15 a gallon on average, compared with $3.

20 at this time last year, according to AAA. The numbers on the sign at the gas station and the price on the grocery receipt aren’t affected by Trump’s tall tales, but they’ll surely affect how Americans vote at the midterms. When viewed in this light, Vance’s attempt to discourage reporters from “call[ing] it a war” begins to make sense.

A war is something that we want to end. It tends to result in a winner and a loser. And its worth is up for debate at all times. A different kind of engagement that doesn’t quite meet the threshold of war—say, a special military operation—is not exposed to the same kind of scrutiny.

Vance effectively made that case himself. “When you ask, ‘When will this end?’ You’re asking me a question like, ‘When will the Iranians stop shooting at ships?’” he said. By that logic, there is no American war—only recurring Iranian provocations that require American military responses.

That’s exactly the logic applied by Putin to Ukraine and supposed expansion of NATO. Putting the Toothpaste Back in the Tube U.S. lawmakers have repeatedly invoked the War Powers Resolution to challenge Trump’s authority to keep fighting Iran without specific congressional authorization.

The law generally gives a president 60 days after U.S. forces enter “hostilities” to secure congressional approval or bring those hostilities to an end. That makes the pauses in fighting hugely important. When the original 60-day deadline arrived in May, Trump told Congress that the temporary ceasefire reached in April meant the hostilities that began on February 28 had ended.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth argued that the War Powers clock could “pause, or stop” when the shooting did. That position is disputed by legal experts, but its political utility is obvious. If every new outbreak of fighting can be treated as a separate skirmish, rather than part of one continuous war, the administration can argue that a fresh 60-day clock starts each time.

Vance’s insistence that there is no continuing “war” fits neatly for an administration that has already tried to divide six months of conflict into separate periods of hostilities, interrupted by ceasefires and pauses. This brings us back to Moscow.

The Kremlin’s own linguistic trick was also about making one sprawling war sound smaller, more limited and more manageable than it really was. From the very beginning of the invasion, Putin described the war as a special military operation. Only after two years of grinding warfare did Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov openly declare Russia to be in a “state of war”—and even then, he said the transformation had occurred because the “collective West” had joined the fight against Russia.

Vance is playing a similar game, but in reverse. Only now—with soaring fuel prices, mounting casualties, concerns over the military’s munitions stockpiles, and midterm elections on the horizon—is the conflict no longer a war. You can’t put the genie back in the bottle, though, and the American people aren’t stupid.

Vance and the White House may discover in November that voters are perfectly capable of recognizing a war, even when the vice president doesn’t want to call it one.

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